Welcome to Bubble-land; Nvidia Results Confirm Extended AI Spending; Unemployment Up, Bitcoin, Gold Down

It's Official!

The Stock Market bubble will not be derailed by President Trump, DOGE cost-cutting, Pam Bondi's Release of the notorious Epstein Files, or even rising jobless claims. It's unstoppable. Prepare for all-time highs on the NASDAQ and S&P within days or weeks.

Nvidia (NVDA), the maker of ultra-fast processing chips needed to fuel the AI craze, reported fourth quarter results that were blowout positive. The company announced revenue in the quarter rose 78%, and full fiscal-year revenue for Nvidia rose 114% to $130.5 billion.

As far as guidance, Nvidia said it expected about $43 billion in first-quarter revenue, slightly higher than estimates, which help push the stock two percent higher in pre-market trading.

Elsewhere, Salesforce.com (CRM) continued its unprecedented streak of underperformance, missing on the revenue side and issuing disappointing guidance. Shares are down 2 1/2 to three percent prior to the open. Never daunted, traders pushed this nonsense company and its p/e ratio of 48 to a high of 361 in early December. As of Wednesday's close, CRM was trading at 307.33 and is expected to fall further, proof once again that it's never a good idea to buy high and sell low.

As the bubble proceeds - the current Shiller PE Ratio of 37.55 is down slightly, but still in range of the most recent bubble high of 38.58 from 2020.

Unemployment claims were released this morning as usual, with the number of initial claims coming in at 242,000, the highest since last October. Incidentally, jobless claims in the D.C. metro area surged past 2,000 in the latest reporting week, up from around 600 at the start of the year. DOGE seems to be working at eliminating slackers and no-shows from the federal workforce.

Bitcoin dropped to a low of $83,576 overnight, the lowest the granddaddy of crypto coins has been since November 11. Since completely fake money can't seem to find a bottom, traders on the COMEX seem to believe that other forms of money, such as gold, should not be priced as high as they have been recently.

Thursday morning saw gold dip back below $2,900. Silver seems to be holding its own for a change, down slightly, just above $32/ounce.

Oddly enough, amid the euphoria, stock futures took a dive just before 9:00 am ET.

Not to worry, however, as fake money, artificial intelligence (AI), and not working from home appear to be winning strategies.

At the Close, Wednesday, February 26, 2025:
Dow: 43,433.12, -188.04 (-0.43%)
NASDAQ: 19,075.26, +48.88 (+0.26%)
S&P 500: 5,956.06, +0.81 (+0.01%)
NYSE Composite: 19,932.85, +8.80 (+0.04%)

As Trump, Musk, Bondi, Patel, et. al. Clean Up Washington, Recession Is a Likely Outcome; Wall Street Ramains Optimistic

Elon Musk, via DOGE, recently sent an email to about two million federal employees, asking them to essentially make a list of five bullet points on what they accomplished at work last week, so I thought I'd take a stab at it. Bear in mind, I am not a gevernemnt employee. I run my own operation, ergo, I don't have a boss.

Here goes:

• Wrote five articles and posted them to Money Daily
• Wrote five college basketball "Player of the Day" articles, uploaded pics of the players, posted to idleguy.com.
• Prepared five daily quizzes for the Daily Idler at idleguy.com and posted them.
• Worked on various pages for upcoming March issue of idleguy.com
• Continued to build out online store at Downtown Magazine. Added 20-30 pages. Posted a number of magazines for sale.
• Researched how to build "ladder" navigation bar, implemented it in store.

Oops, that's six.

Ok, it took me about 2 1/2 minutes for those six, and, if you've ever run your own business, you can understand that I could have kept going. I did a lot more than just those six things, which, actually, are about 30 or 40 things.

The point of Musk's email was probably not to see what everybody was doing all week but to see how many did not respond. He suspects many government "jobholders" are fake, the workers non-existent, and the money being paid to whomever constitutes fraud. He's probably right, though just how right is a scary prospect. The number of no-show jobs could be hundreds of thousands, though I suspect it will amount to maybe 70-150,000 total. At least I hope it's a small number because the stories coming out of DOGE and D.C. have been fairly disturbing, in a manner that leads people to believe their tax dollars - in addition to all the money the government borrows - is being wasted in a very large way.

My point is different. It is about work ethic and accountability. Federal workers need a boss or manager to tell them what to do, how to do it, when to do it, etc. In my situation, I have built accountability into my "job." If I don't write my three daily pieces, nobody else will and my readers will notice. I will lose readers and money. Same goes for the monthly idleguy.com commitment and building out the online store (long overdue, sorry).

Perhaps government work should be restructured. Instead of unions negotiating automatic annual pay raises and congress rubber-stamping them, government jobs should come with incentives and penalties. Do good, high quality work, get a bonus. Slack off, no raise, probation, possible firing, for the most egregious, loss of pension. Reform of the federal government is long overdue. President Trump received a mandate (twice now) to fix the broken system in Washington and beyond. Having the world's richest man overseeing efforts that will root out the waste, fraud, and abuse is a godsend.

Complain all you like about Elon Musk, but he's not getting paid to do this. Besides, were he on the payroll, what would his salary be? $150,000 a year. $250,000? A couple of million? Any amount would likely be a bargain, but Musk, not needing the money, does it for free because he knows it is the right thing to do and he knows how to do it. Americans are fortunate to have a two verified genius businessmen working for their benefit. The complainers are people who don't see the problem with $36 trillion of debt, workers who aren't required to even show up, and members of congress who win elections as middle class and emerge after a few years as multi-millionaires. Those who complain are the status quo who have been getting their palms greased for years, even decades. They're the problem, not President Trump or Elon Musk or J.D. Vance, Tulsi Gabbard, RFK Jr., Kash Patel, Scott Bessent, or Pam Bondi.

Trump was sent by the people to fix the system and he's assembled a team to do just that. The problem, when all is said and done, is that unemployment in the D.C. metro area is going to skyrocket, money previously going to workers, contractors, anybody with a hand out, is going to dry up and it will snowball from there. Fewer dollars circulating though the economy - a lot fewer - will likely precipitate a recession. How mild or severe it becomes depends on how deep is the rot in D.C. and how deeply Trump, Musk, et. al. carve it up. One might suspect that cuts to the general grifting system will be quite severe.

And that's why Wall Street is nervous. An economy slowly grinding down before it is rebuilt isn't exactly a blueprint for profits. People will limited means tend to spend less. Unemployed people spend even less and the U.S. economy is dependent on people not just spending, but spending more every month, every quarter, every year. With hundreds of thousands of government workers out of a job and possibly millions of illegal aliens sent packing, tons of money that was being spent isn't going to be any more. It's coming. Count on it. The bright side is that once all the rot is ripped out, loafers fired, endless regulations rolled back, Americans can actually start doing what they do best, innovating and creating new businesses to take advantage of new opportunity. America is not known as "land of opportunity" for nothing. It's everywhere, and with government and hordes of slack-jawed rule-writers out of the way, it will be widely available.

Bottom line, there is likely to be a recession and it is likely to be deep but probably not long. It has probably already begun and will last maybe through the end of this year or into the first half of next year. That's when the fun begins. Prosperity, jobs, innovation, opportunity. It's all there.

Meanwhile, Wall Street remains spooked because they're focused on the here and now, on the immediacy of profits, and stocks are obviously a little pricey. There seems to be only one way stocks can go now unless Wall Street's biggest players want to extend and pretend until nobody can deny the economic condition. If so, the rush for the exits will be a stampede, a crash. It's probably better that Wall Street continues to be in denial and the decline is slow and gradual. As the case may be a 30-40% correction isn't going to happen overnight. Give it six months to a year. Then buy back in. What do you think Warren Buffett is going to do with his $350 billion war chest? For now, he's waiting, but, rest assured, the old man knows his stuff and he'll be buying at or near the bottom.

So far this week, markets have been a bit messy, but help is on the way. Lowe's (LOW) and AB InBev (BUD) reported before the open and both stocks are sporting 4-5% gains pre-market. Advance Auto Parts (AAP) reported earnings that beat consensus but issued iffy guidance, sending shares marginally lower.

Elsewhere, Instacart (CART), reporting after Tuesday's closing bell, missed fourth quarter estimates and offered downbeat guidance for the first quarter. Shares are trending down about 10%. Intuit (INTU) topped expectations, returning $3.32 per share. The stock price is rising pre-market, up eight percent. First Solar (FSLR) announced fourth quarter earnings of $3.65, short of estimates, but the stock is trading four to five percent higher.

After the bell, Nvidia (NVDA) and Dow Component SalesForce (CRM) report, so Wednesday looks to have great expectations.

WTI crude got hammered lower on Tuesday, dropping as low as $68.75, with more room to fall. Back in September, it bottomed at $65.75, and, even though that may have been politically-motivated, all indications point to lower oil prices ahead.

Bitcoin plunged to a low of $86,468 on Tuesday, recovered a bit overnight but is falling again this morning ($87,338.03)

Gold lost ground on Tuesday, currently around $2,925, with silver just above $32. Stock futures, expectedly, are soaring.

At the Close, Tuesday, February 25, 2025:
Dow: 43,621.16, +159.95 (+0.37%)
NASDAQ: 19,026.39, -260.54 (-1.35%)
S&P 500: 5,955.25, -28.00 (-0.47%)
NYSE Composite: 19,924.05, +64.85 (+0.33%)

Everything Is Up in the Air; Bitcoin, Crypto (Vaporware) Plunging; Diversifying Asset Classes May Make Sense for Most

OK, markets have entered the phase of denial called "fake it 'til you make it." In other words, nobody has a single clue about the future of stocks, bonds, commodities, currency, nations, anything.

Anybody who purports to "knowing" what's ahead is either a reincarnation of Nostradamus or is smoking some powerful weed and isn't sharing it with anybody (bogarting).

Nothing in the current climate is quantifiable. Maybe some company dividends will still be delivered on their quarterly schedules, but stock prices - having been bid into the stratosphere over years of neglect and misappropriation - may wipe out any profits one may have from those same dividends. Maybe not. Stocks could go parabolic and too the moon or beyond.

Honestly, at this point, nobody knows. Everybody's guessing.

One thing that seems likely is the absolute chance at a major pullback or correction in stocks if only because the market dislikes uncertainty, and uncertainty is all that there is currently.

Diversifying into assets other than stocks and fixed income may be sensible, lest we are reminded again that the most prolific and successful investor of our age, Warren Buffett, is sitting on some $350 billion in cash. He's obviously waiting for chips to fall so he can pick them up on the cheap.

Real estate, precious metals, energy, transportation would provide a good mix, but there's no guarantee any of them may appreciate or even hold their value except maybe gold and silver, their gains simply a symptom of crumbling currency value.

The publication, Fast Company, posted the musical question this morning, "Crypto crash: Why are Bitcoin, XRP, DOGE, and TRUMP prices plunging today?"

Answering their own question with two possible reasons (poor form, chaps) the magazine's response was, "Concerns over tariffs and the recent breach of a crypto exchange may be fueling a decline not seen since President Trump's election victory in November."

Sure, tariffs, like that would affect bitcoin. A recent crypto breach may be closer to the correct answer.

How about this: They're all fake, worthless slush funds for criminals and government officials (same thing) hiding ill-gotten loot. Bitcoin, Trump-coin, Doge, etc. are simply vaporware. Anybody putting actual money into these fictions other than for a quick profit on speculation is an idiot. Plain and simple. None of these crypto-currencies (a rather loosely-used term) are worth anything. Nada. Nothing. And the market is beginning to reflect that reality. All of Bitcoin could vanish in a millisecond. Same with the other alt-coins, fraud-coins, stable-coins. Seriously, they have no value whatsoever.

Bitcoin plunged below $90,000 this morning. In case anybody thinks that's a big deal, stick around for the dive below $80,000 and deeper.

With the opening bell a half hour away, stock futures are up. Dow futures are +110; S&P futures +2; NASDAQ futures (oops) -9.

Monday ended badly, so today, best wishes.

At the Close, Monday, February 24, 2025:
Dow: 43,461.21, +33.19 (+0.08%)
NASDAQ: 19,286.93, -237.08 (-1.21%)
S&P 500: 5,983.25, -29.88 (-0.50%)
NYSE Composite: 19,859.20, -22.33 (-0.11%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Stocks Wrecked in Friday Bloodbath; Gold, Silver Each Up More than 10% Already in 2025; End of the Fed Coming Soon

Commentary will be limited in this week's WRAP as conditions are changing by the day.

Just for openers, WTI crude oil feel for a fifth straight week. Gold finished higher an eighth straight week. Stocks got a serious reality check on Friday, leaving the three major indices - Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 - clinging to gains of one to two percent. If it wasn't for a severe downdraft the final four trading sessions of 2024 (December 26, 27, 30, 31), all but the Dow would be down for the year. As it is, they’re each well off recent highs.

Stocks

Friday was a train wreck, sending all the indices into the red for the week. Charts are eerily reminiscent of either 2020 or 2022. With Friday's report of a new deadly virus discovered in China, some are betting on 2020, though for the intellectual class of covid/shutdowns/vaccine-deniers, the message delivered after the close of European markets Friday by the dubious Daily Mail, citing the Wuhan Institute of Virology as its source, amounts to nothing more than EU-inspired fake news, promulgated in response to U.S. President Donald Trump's attempt to impose peace upon Ukraine, thus flushing the EU's plan to permanently enslave their populations down a proverbial toilet.

NASDAQ's 438-point drop wasn't even as deep as the January 27 613-point wreck, so, nothing new here, just another in a series of dumps, which have been frequent since (ah-ha!) Trump's election. There's probably more pain to come. The recent patterns suggest distribution (pump-and-dump). Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on $334 billion in cash, and that's after the firm paid $27 billion in taxes. Democrats may lament billionaires, but Berkshire is certainly paying its "fair share."

Things are getting hairy and scary. The U.S. is attacking drug cartels in Mexico, Musk continues to slash and burn via DOGE, Pope Francis is in critical condition, Trump fired the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Air Force General Charles Q. Brown Jr. (ha, take that, Charlie Brown), Kash Patel was confirmed as Director of the FBI on Friday, and there's a critical election in Germany TODAY.

Upcoming full year and fourth quarter earnings reports:

Monday: (before open): Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), Owens Corning (OC), Domino's Pizza (DPZ); (after close) Cliffs (CLF), Chegg (CHGG), hims | hers (HIMS)

Tuesday: (before open) Keurig Dr. Pepper (KDP), Home Depot (HD), Krispy Kreme (DNUT); (after close) Instacart (CART), Workday (WDAY), Intuit (INTU), First Solar (FSLR), AMC Entertainment (AMC)

Wednesday: (before open) Advance Auto Parts (AAP), AB InBev (BUD), Stellantis (STLA), NRG (NRG), Lowe's (LOW); (after close) Nvidia (NVDA), SalesForce (CRM), Kratos (KTOS)

Thursday: (before open) Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLH), Gray Communications (GTN), TB Bank (TD), Warner Brothers Discovery (WBD); (after close) Bloom Energy (BE), Dell (DELL), SoundHound (SOUN)

Friday: (before open) Frontline PLC (FRO), Butterfly (BFLY), 1st Dibs (DIBS), Fubo TV (FUBO).

The second estimate for fourth quarter GDP is released Thursday, along with durable goods data for January. Both reports should bear weight on markets.

The coming week's data will close out with the PCE Price Index for January - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge - on Friday before the opening bell. This is a readout that is losing its significance as the Fed's influence on markets in general is being sent to back-burners.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
01/17/2025	4.43	4.35	4.34	4.32	4.28	4.21
01/24/2025	4.45	4.36	4.35	4.32	4.25	4.17
01/31/2025	4.37	4.37	4.31	4.33	4.28	4.17
02/07/2025	4.37	4.38	4.35	4.37	4.30	4.25
02/14/2025	4.37	4.38	4.34	4.35	4.32	4.23
02/21/2025	4.36	4.38	4.32	4.34	4.30	4.15

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
01/17/2025	4.27	4.33	4.42	4.52	4.61	4.91	4.84
01/24/2025	4.27	4.33	4.43	4.53	4.63	4.91	4.85
01/31/2025	4.22	4.27	4.36	4.47	4.58	4.88	4.83
02/07/2025	4.29	4.31	4.34	4.42	4.49	4.75	4.69
02/14/2025	4.26	4.26	4.33	4.41	4.47	4.75	4.69
02/21/2025	4.19	4.19	4.26	4.35	4.42	4.69	4.67

For whatever reason, the Fed added a 6-week bill to the treasury stack. It is not included here this week, but will appear at some point going forward. There's likely to be some volatility to the new issue, so it will deserve some attention, though not much.

Steady as she goes on spreads, with 2s-10s slightly elevated by two basis points to +23. Full Spectrum returned +31 at week's end.

The Fed is becoming increasingly irrelevant. With any luck, they'll still be in business by this time next year, though its extended future is very much in doubt. Having robbed Americans blind via inflation for the past 112 years, the people have had enough of fiat currency and fractional reserve banking, amounting to nothing better than counterfeiting. Americans are unlikely to get their money back, but at least they'll be rid of what "Old Hickory" Andrew Jackson called "a den of vipers" when he abolished the Second Bank of the United States. History can't repeat soon enough.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31

Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil prices continue to fall, from $77.37 at the New York close on January 17, to $74.60 on January 24, to $73.81 on January 31, to $71.06 on February 7, $70.56 on February 14, and finally, 70.25 at the New York close this Friday. Five consecutive weeks of falling prices by a cumulative nine percent should have convinced enough people that the price of oil is not going back up any time soon.

Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump has finally begun to fall, at $3.13 (down two cents) a gallon Sunday morning, reflecting the lag time between crude prices and gas prices. The price of gas nationwide should continue falling for the next four to six weeks, longer if oil prices continue to slide, which they should.

California remains top of the heap, up only two cents from last week, at $4.80.

Pennsylvania was fell two cents, at $3.35, the Keystone State remaining the price leader in the Northeast. New York is a distant second, stable at $3.15. Connecticut ($3.07) and Massachusetts ($3.01) were pretty much unchanged. Maryland dropped down to $3.03. New Jersey is back to an even $3.00.

Even Illinois was down a couple of cents, to $3.23. Ohio ($2.89) and Indiana ($2.92) were down the most in the Midwest.

Mississippi ($2.63) fell two cents, holding at the lowest in the country, just slightly better than Louisiana ($2.65) this week. Texas was next at $2.70. Oklahoma was actually higher, checking in a $2.72. Tennessee ($2.71) fell six cents. Alabama ($2.75), Kentucky ($2.76), Arkansas ($2.77) and South Carolina ($2.78) are next. Kansas and Missouri are both at $2.82, followed by Missouri ($2.85), all lower. Georgia dropped two cents ($2.98). Florida continues to fluctuate, up seven cents this week to $3.08.

Sub-$3.00 gas can now be found in five more states than last week. At least 26 U.S. states have prices under $3.00.

The West continues to suffer the highest prices in the country. Arizona ($3.41) was off just a penny. Oregon showed another penny increase, at $3.74, while Nevada dropped one cent, to $3.82. Washington was up to $4.13, joining California in the tiny club of mainland states at $4.00 or higher. Utah ($3.02) was stable, and Idaho ($3.18) fell by two cents.

Bitcoin

This week: $95,900.56
Last week: $97,022.45
2 weeks ago: $96,477.31
6 months ago: $63,975.61
One year ago: $51,728.53
Five years ago: $8,531.39

Bitcoin has not been over $100,00 since February 4. Hodlers are becoming impatient, former "diamond hands" turning to granite, eventually to sand as they see profits slip through their fingers. The price rise from $50,000, $60,000 to above $100,000 took place in September, October, and November of last year and has stalled out, with the all-time high now a look back to December 17 ($106.490.10).

There's growing dissatisfaction with the Trump administration over moving bitcoin and crypto in general to a higher plain amid speculation that the President was pandering for votes in his pro-crypto messaging during the election cycle. Otherwise, with gold and silver soaring this year (after soaring last year), people may be awakening to the idea that bitcoin and crypto isn't "digital gold" but really all a fantasy, i.e., fool's gold.

Rational people who largely agree that bitcoin is nothing more than vaporware and a slush fund for criminals and Wall Street firms like BlackRock (same thing) have watched the fluctuations in price and sentiment and are seeing chart patterns eerily similar to those in 2021, which plateaued at higher levels before falling sharply, decimating both price and sentiment.

In the end, crypto speculators will get what's coming to them in a cascade of rapid declines, just like previous iterations.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 89.84; last week: 88.63

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 1/26: $2,777.40
Gold price 2/2: $2,809.30
Gold price 2/9: $2,886.10
Gold price 2/16: $2,893.70
Gold price 2/23: $2,949.60

Silver price 1/26: $31.04
Silver price 2/2: $32.24
Silver price 2/9: $32.19
Silver price 2/16: $32.65
Silver price 2/23: $32.83

Gold continues to shine, the price continuing to make new highs week after week. Silver made nominal gains over the course of the week, once again smacked down on Friday after reaching a high for the week of $33.77 Thursday. On the COMEX, Gold has finished every Friday this year (eight straight) higher than the previous one.

Year-to-date, precious metals are outpacing stocks by a wide margin. Silver is ahead by 14.02%, gold up 11.83%. By comparison, the S&P 500 is up 2.24%, the Dow, 2.08%, NASDAQ, 1.10%. Call it the "Trump Effect" or whatever, but Trump's promise of a "Golden Age" for America has been nothing but good for PMs.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	36.76	49.99	40.67	39.64
1 oz silver bar:	38.00	53.66	42.54	41.30
1 oz gold coin:	2,993.76	3,200.00	3,111.38	3,122.42
1 oz gold bar:	3,052.60	3,107.64	3,077.11	3,074.48

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) was higher for a second straight week, at $41.04, a gain of 64 cents from the February 16 price of $40.40 per troy ounce.

WEEKEND WRAP

Despite what most people in the Eastern half of the U.S. are thinking after another bout with severe cold and prime winter conditions, good times are ahead. Spring is officially less than four weeks away. Baseball’s Spring Training is already well underway in Florida and Arizona. MLB's regular season Opening Day is March 27.

At the Close, Friday, February 21, 2025:
Dow: 43,428.02, -748.63 (-1.69%)
NASDAQ: 19,524.01, -438.36 (-2.20%)
S&P 500: 6,013.13, -104.39 (-1.71%)
NYSE Composite: 19,881.54, -268.31 (-1.33%)

For the Week:
Dow: -1118.06 (-2.51%)
NASDAQ: -502.76 (-2.51%)
S&P 500: -101.50 (1.66%)
NYSE Composite: -248.95 (-1.24%)
Dow Transports: -572.17 (-3.45%)

How Many IRS Employees Are Necessary?; Stocks Look to Avoid Losing Week; DoJ Probe of United Health (UNH) Sends Dow Futures Tumbling

Is it really necessary to have 100,000 people employed at the IRS to collect taxes and process returns from American citizens and corporations?

The answer probably depends on who's being asked. Bean-counters at the tax collection agency would probably argue that they're understaffed. President Trump and Elon Musk's DOGE team think otherwise.

As many as 6,000 probationary employees (those with less than 2 years at their current position) are reportedly being axed this week, a reduction in headcount of 7.5% just as tax filing season gets into full swing.

Deeper cuts are planned for May, after the bulk of filings have been processed. It's probably a safe bet to believe there will be delays and confusion surrounding this year's tax returns. The IRS is notoriously slow, burdened by ancient, legacy computer programs written in COBOL, a language hatched in 1959. Coders with COBOL understanding have become increasingly rare, exacerbating IRS issues processing returns.

The agency has been undergoing "modernization" of its systems since 2019, a six-year plan that should be completed this year, but, like previous IRS promises to upgrade, it's probably been a huge waste of time, effort, and money.

With better systems using modern technology, coupled with a simplified tax code (yes, we're dreaming), headcount could probably be reduced to something in the range of 30-40,000 employees, a reduction of 60-70%, which would save something like $6-7 billion a year, or $60-70 billion over ten years.

Trump has mentioned more than a few times his desire to eliminate the most-hated agency in the federal government, and it appears he's proceeding along that path. According to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutwick, Trump's goal is to replace the income tax with tariffs. Apparently, editors at The New Republic are opposed to freeing Americans from tax slavery. A number of experts believe the federal income tax to be illegal, and the Supreme Court, back in 1892 agreed in a 5-4 ruling.

There is no specific statute that requires Americans to pay income tax and some people believe the 16th amendment, which authorized the income tax and the Federal Reserve System, was never actually ratified.

There are plenty of people who would love to see the IRS defanged and possibly eliminated. Replacement options mentioned include a flat tax, national sales tax, or taxing only businesses and corporations in addition to tariffs.

Using the tried and true 80/20 formula (20% of employees do 80% of the work), there's a solid probability of the IRS being severely downsized over the next few years, if not sooner.

Stocks took a turn south on Thursday, setting up for a big options expiation day Friday. Walmart was the main catalyst for the downturn, the company offering fairly dour guidance.

Block, parent of Square, reported fourth-quarter earnings and revenue well below estimates. Square stock plunged more than 8% Friday in the pre-market.

Rivian was down more than five percent pre-market after the company beat expectations but offered a so-so outlook late Thursday.

Booking (BKNG) rallied nearly 4% in early morning action. MercadoLibre (MELI) is soaring nearly 12%, the company reporting strong earnings and revenue in the fourth quarter.

Dow futures took a huge leg downward as Dow component UnitedHealth (UNH) plunged more than 12% after a reported Department of Justice probe on Medicare billing was reported.

A half hour until the open, Dow futures are down more than 250 points. NASDAQ futures are up 80, while S&P futures are flat-lining.

Bitcoin continues its flirtation with $100,000, a level it has not exceeded since February 4. Being Friday, gold and silver are lower, as expected. For whatever reason, PM riggers always seem to want to send prices down at the end of every week, setting up casual buying opportunities over the weekend for stackers. Well, OK.

WTI crude oil is down early Friday, but seeks its first week to the upside in the past five. It needs to close above $71.06, currently, the price is $72.08.

As of Thursday's close, the Dow is down 359 points on the week, the NASDAQ is down 64, S&P up 3 points.

At the Close, Thursday, February 20, 2025:
Dow: 44,176.65, -450.94 (-1.01%)
NASDAQ: 19,962.36, -93.89 (-0.47%)
S&P 500: 6,117.52, -26.63 (-0.43%)
NYSE Composite: 20,149.85, -78.36 (-0.39%)

Stocks Hitting Resistance at All-Time Highs; Walmart Issues dull Guidance; FOMC Minutes Show Fed Holding on Rates

Compared to recent days, Wednesday was a little on the dull side. Elon Musk and DOGE didn't fire whole departments, President Trump didn't end any wars, and the stock market relied upon minutes from the January FOMC meeting for investment decisions.

Federal Reserve officials discussed the effects of potential changes in trade from proposed Trump tariffs and weighed the administration's efforts to slow illegal immigration and deport potentially millions of working age adults on the economy. They also reportedly discussed the inherent difficulty in discerning whether changes would be persistent or temporary regarding inflation, employment, and the general economy, minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's January 28-29 meeting showed.

Essentially, the FOMC members couldn't make heads or tails of Trump or his directives other than to guess about their effectiveness, so they took a wait and see approach, deciding to keep the federal funds rate at current levels, indicating a preference for holding off on rate cuts in the near term.

From the minutes, Wall Street's coven of watchful witches bubbled up a brew that was somehow positive, sending stocks from their doldrums to another gloriously positive finish and a record close on the S&P 500. The main beneficiary was, as usual, NASDAQ, which ended positive for the fifth straight session. The S&P has closed higher eight of the past 11 sessions. Only the NYSE Composite remained lower for the day.

After the close Wednesday, a few more earnings reports trickled in, notable Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), which posted solid Q4 and full year 2024 figures. for the quarter, revenue: came in at a record $921 million against analyst expectations for $913.2 million and adjusted EPS (non-GAAP) was $1.04 versus estimates of $0.91. While the restaurant chain's quarter was solid, shares are down between one and two percent in pre-market trading, likely on a pure valuation play. The stock just hit its highest level since June, 2021, even though its dividend yield is nearly two percent and p/e ratio not excessive, in the high teens.

Also reporting after the Wednesday close was Carvana (CVNA). Even though the company beat estimates top and bottom line, the stock is being slaughtered pre-open, down seven percent. Shares recently reached their highest level in three years, but the company's margins are so tight, valuation appears to be the main issue.

On revenues of $3.55 billion for the quarter ended December 2024 the company earned $369 million, or 56 cents per share.

Reporting Thursday morning, Wayfair (W) showed a quarterly loss of $128 million or $1.02 per share on revenue of $3.1 billion, which was just slightly higher than year-ago revenue. Apparently, that's good enough, as shares are flying eight percent higher pre-market.

The kicker was Walmart (WMT), the nation's largest retailer. The company reported another solid quarter, beating estimates, but their guidance was dour, sending shares sharply lower prior to the open. Walmart is trending down six to eight percent a half hour before the bell.

Weekly jobless claims continued to trend near multi-decade lows. 219,000 initial claims were filed in the most recent week. Paradoxically, continuing claims were near 2.0 million, close to four-year highs.

With the open dead ahead, stock futures are slumping. Dow: -155; NASDAQ: -55; S&P: -18.

Gold hit a high of $2,972 earlier in the morning, but has come down off that number. Silver is trending around $33.50. WTI crude got a boost on Wednesday and that trend continues into Thursday, with a barrel going for around $72.50.

The market is teetering close to all-time highs. The Shiller PE ratio hit 38.75 as of Wednesday's close, surpassing the post=pandemic high in October, 2021 (38.58).

At the Close, Wednesday, February 19, 2025:
Dow: 44,627.59, +71.25 (+0.16%)
NASDAQ: 20,056.2, +14.99 (+0.07%)
S&P 500: 6,144.15, +14.57 (+0.24%)
NYSE Composite: 20,228.20, -12.19 (-0.06%)

The United States Is a Big Slush Fund; Treasury Missing $4.7 Trillion; Did Goldfinger Steal All of Fort Knox's Gold?

The world has been turned upside down. Just a month since Donald J. Trump was inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States, he's unleashed Elon Musk and his troops at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) upon various agencies and departments of the federal government, uncovering massive levels of fraud, waste, abuse, and corruption.

Democrats - and quite a few Republicans - in congress are in a panic, not because Trump and Musk have unearthed incredible amounts of money missing, wasted, spent, or plundered, but because they fear further unraveling of their hidden truths. Just who was taking bribes, hush money, kickbacks. It's no wonder the Senate pushed the confirmation of Kash Patel as Director of the FBI back a week. Certain lawmakers likely need more time to shred documents, wipe computer hard drives, close bank accounts before the investigations begin.

Meanwhile, Wall Street is content to carry on as though everything is normal, when the condition is actually closer to one of extreme FUBAR. Tuesday's close was yet another example of the devious nature exhibited in lower Manhattan. All of the major indices were in the red just 11 minutes before the final bell. Miraculously, as has been standard practice for months, even years, all of the exchanges turned green at the close.

Wall Street insiders depend on casual investors to only see the closing prices, not peer at daily charts. Those who did saw the Dow down by more than 220 points earlier in the session. "Painting the tape" as it were, has become such a common event that it's expected, and without explanation. Stocks go up. Everybody knows that.

In the travails of the DOGE team over the weekend and into Tuesday, it was discovered that there were thousands of individual social security numbers in age groups from 100 to as high as 300 years with the Death field entered a "false", meaning, according to the SSA's database, these people were still alive, and, ostensibly, entitled to receive benefits. Were they? And since thousands of people don't live to be 100, 120, 140 or more, who actually received the payments? That is going to require more forensic investigation.

Beyond that, Musk tweeted that $4.7 trillion of Treasury payments had no TAS code, and would be "untraceable." That raised a few eyebrows.

If $4.7 trillion was missing or lost or otherwise unaccounted for, divided equally, how much would that be per U.S. citizen?

As of February 1, 2025, the estimated population of the U.S. is 341,271,663. Dividing the total amount of money ($4.7 Trillion) unaccounted for at the U.S. Treasury by the U.S. population produces the following calculation:

$4,700,000,000,000 divided by 341,271,663 U.S. citizens = $13,769.75 (approximately).

Therefore, each U.S. citizen is on the hook for approximately $13,769.75. Surely, some people could use that extra cash.

The responsible party is the Fiscal Assistant Secretary of the Treasury, the highest-ranking career official in the United States Department of the Treasury. David Lebryk served as Fiscal Assistant Secretary of the Treasury between 2014 and 2025. Of course, he served under Janet Yellen, a former Chair of the Federal Reserve. MoneyDaily pointed out that she should never have confirmed, given her ties to the Fed, a foreign, private bank.

Further down the rabbit hole, the requirement for using TAS for every disbursement is not found in a single, standalone statute. Instead, it's a fundamental requirement woven into the fabric of federal financial management through a combination of:

Statutory authority (31 U.S.C. §§ 3512, 3513) establishing the need for robust accounting systems and giving the Treasury the authority to set the rules.

Treasury regulations and guidance (TFM, FAST Book) providing the specific instructions and procedures for using TAS.

OMB guidance (Circulars A-123, A-136) reinforcing the importance of internal controls and accurate financial reporting.

GAO guidance (Title 7) providing further clarification on fiscal procedures.

The system is designed to ensure that every dollar spent by the federal government can be tracked back to its source appropriation, promoting transparency and accountability. The use of TAS is not optional; it's a mandatory part of federal financial management.

Well, somebody needs to do some 'splainin'.

Then there's the not-so-insignificant issue of the gold in Fort Knox. Elon Musk, with the backing of Senator Ron Paul, intends to inspect the vaults, the same ones Auric Goldfinger (Gerd Forbe) planned to abscond with in the 1964 classic OO7 film, "Goldfinger". Who knows, maybe James Bond really didn't catch the villain, Goldfinger's operation "Grand Slam" was a success, and the gold is gone.

Earnings from various companies were reported Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday prior to the bell.

Auction and retail platform Etsy reported before the open Wednesday. Spending on the platform was down 6.8% overall and the number of active buyers fell 2.6%. Though the company managed to beat earnings expectations, the miss on the revenue side has investors fleeing for the exits. Shares of ETSY are down more than five percent in pre-market trading.

Gold ripped higher on Tuesday after being slammed Friday. It's currently trending around $2,955. Silver is bouncing around the mid-$33s. Crude oil has caught a bid, stock futures are lower.

Sooner or later, there's going to be a reckoning, and, judging by the speed at which Trump is proceeding, it looks like sooner. Oh, and U.S. and Russian negotiators pretty much shut down project Ukraine, despite protestations from war-mongers in Europe and the little dictator, Zelensky.

At the Close, Tuesday, February 18, 2025:
Dow: 44,556.34, +10.26 (+0.02%)
NASDAQ: 20,041.26, +14.49 (+0.07%)
S&P 500: 6,129.58, +14.95 (+0.24%)
NYSE Composite: 20,240.39, +109.91 (+0.55%)

Editor's Note: X has temporarily suspended this account from posting for one week. Sorry.

WEEKEND WRAP: DC Panic; Wall Street Apathy; Gold-Backed Currencies Within 1-3 Years; Slowing Ecnomy; Higher Unemployment

Panic is trending in Washington D.C.

Anybody tired of #WINNING yet?

There are unconfirmed rumors of a massive spike in the number of houses up fr sale in and around the Washington D.C. metro area.

Checking with Zillow in a broad search of the area (Beltway and slightly beyond), there were:

• 6700 homes listed for 6 months
• 5753 homes listed for 90 days
• 2922 homes listed for 30 days
• 1709 homes listed for 14 days
• 932 homes listed for 7 days

Doesn't seem to exactly point to an exodus. It will probably be insightful to watch rents and home sale prices over the next six months, however, as Trump and Musk take an axe to the federal workforce. With all the layoffs, firings, and upcoming prosecutions, it's a good bet that there's going to be more than enough housing for the few that remain. Prices should absolutely crumble unless BlackRock goes in and buys them all (which is a possibility).

After four weeks of the Trump presidency, politicians are scrambling to delete incriminating evidence from hard drives, cell phones, bank records, you name it. An estimate of how many of the current 535 members of congress (100 senators, 435 members of the House) have taken bribes, kickbacks, or dirty money of some kind would have to be in the 90 percentile range. Estimating how many will resign and/or be caught, be tried, be convicted is probably in the high teens to low 20s. It's fairly obvious U.S. elected officials and higher-ups in government employ have been fleecing the taxpayers for years, even decades. Finally, there may be some exposure to just how deep the corruption has dug into the roots of politics in D.C.

It's pretty deep and Americans want the crooks exposed. More to come, as they say.

Meanwhile, Wall Street, responsible for at least some of the corruption via insider tips, favors, and probably payments to politicians, continues to stroll along as if nothing has changed. That's despite the revelations last week that inflation was not under control with the CPI and PPI both at higher levels than previous months and retail sales in January crashing (-0.9%).

Stocks

Stocks had a good week, with all the major indices posting gains, led by the NASDAQ (+2.58%), which, along with the S&P, ended a two-week-long slide. The Dow Jones Transportation Average was the best of the bunch with a gain of 2.84% for the week.

The week past saw mixed results from companies reporting, but most were boosted higher despite results that were largely reflective of a slowing economy.

The coming week will be shortened, with markets shuttered Monday (Presidents' Day). The earnings calendar gets a little lighter.

Monday: (markets closed) Transocean (RIG), Huntsman (HUN)

Tuesday: (before open) Baidu (BIDU), Medtronic (MDT), Entergy (ETR); (after close) Celanese (CE), Devon Energy (DVN), Toll Brothers (TOL)

Wednesday: (before open) Wix (WIX), Fiverr (FVRR), Analog Devices (ADI), Etsy (ETSY), Garmin (GRMN); (after close) Bausch Health (BHC), Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), Equinox Gold (EQX), Carvana (CVNA)

Thursday: (before open) Walmart (WMT), Wayfair (W), Birkenstock (BIRK), Shake Shack (SHAK); (after close) Texas Roadhouse (TXRH), Newmont Mining (NEM), Mercado Libre (MELI), Rivian (RIVN)

Friday: (before open) US Cellular (USM), Atmus (ATMU), Uniti (UNIT).

Data drops are slim, the most important - and becoming less so every day - will be the Fed minutes from the January FOMC meeting. Nothing spectacular or market moving in that Wednesday afternoon (usually 2:00 pm ET) release.


Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
01/10/2025	4.42	4.35	4.36	4.33	4.27	4.25
01/17/2025	4.43	4.35	4.34	4.32	4.28	4.21
01/24/2025	4.45	4.36	4.35	4.32	4.25	4.17
01/31/2025	4.37	4.37	4.31	4.33	4.28	4.17
02/07/2025	4.37	4.38	4.35	4.37	4.30	4.25
02/14/2025	4.37	4.38	4.34	4.35	4.32	4.23

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
01/10/2025	4.40	4.46	4.59	4.70	4.77	5.04	4.96
01/17/2025	4.27	4.33	4.42	4.52	4.61	4.91	4.84
01/24/2025	4.27	4.33	4.43	4.53	4.63	4.91	4.85
01/31/2025	4.22	4.27	4.36	4.47	4.58	4.88	4.83
02/07/2025	4.29	4.31	4.34	4.42	4.49	4.75	4.69
02/14/2025	4.26	4.26	4.33	4.41	4.47	4.75	4.69

Nothing says flat like the difference between the lowest rate (4.23%, 1-year note) and the highest (4.69%, 30-year bond) of 0.46%. The 20-year (4.75%) is an anomaly and left aside of calculations.

The Federal Reserve is being defanged by the Trump administration, gradually, but the effort will pick up momentum as soon as other issues are deemed under control. Those others include downsizing the government, a huge lift in foreign affairs (Middle East, Ukraine chief among them), and the domestic economy. Taking a wrecking ball to the Federal Reserve is the best part of the journey and purposely reserved for the end.

While the Fed will attempt to assert its authority from time to time via sporadic speeches and the usual rhetoric from their 10 annual FOMC soirees, it was clear from the last FOMC meeting at the end of January that conditions have changed. The Fed stood down, keeping the federal funds target rate at 4.25-4.50% and Chairman Powell was as mealy-mouthed and non-committal as he could be, barring an outright gag order, at his press conference.

Monetary policy is being taken out of the Fed's hands and will ultimately become a function of the Treasury. Currently, the treasury, secondary bond markets, and forex are providing all the monetary indicators needed without input from the Federal Reserve. The people doing their diligence at the Mariner Eccles building might as well start clearing their desks, packing their bags and sharpening up their resumes. Their days are numbered.

The American people clearly demand an honest government and Trump is delivering on that promise. They will ultimately demand honest money, but that is an issue for another day, though, considering the speed at which Trump is operating, that day could come sooner than many wish to consider. The U.S. dollar, along with Russia's rouble, China's yuan, and India's rupee will have gold backing, either in full or in fraction, either for international trade or domestic transactions, at some time within the next one to three years. It only makes sense to have honest money the global standard and the countries with the largest gold holdings will dominate how currencies adjust to the emerging new standards.

Central banks, being private, will protest vigorously, but their lamentations will fall on deaf ears. The global community has had its fill of the World Bank, IMF, and fiat currencies backed by nothing but faith in central banks, not governments. Once governments begin to wrest control of their currencies back from the debt pushers, there will be no stopping their momentum. The process has begun and the leaders of the "Big Four" will coordinate their agendas.

Central banks will become irrelevant and soon dissolve. Government treasuries issuing the currency of their respective nations will become the norm. This is the biggest story of the century, unfolding before our very eyes though most people are blind to it.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32


Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil prices continue to fall, from $77.37 at the New York close on January 17, to $74.60 on January 24, to $73.81 on January 31, to $71.06 on February 7, and finally to $70.56 at the New York close this Friday. Four consecutive weeks of falling prices by a cumulative 8.80% should have convinced enough people that the price of oil is not going back up any time soon, regardless of cold winter heating days or summer driving season.

Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump up another four cents from last week, at $3.15 a gallon Sunday morning.

California remains top of the heap, up sharply from last week, at $4.78, from $4.56 last week and $4.43 a gallon two weeks ago.

Pennsylvania was up marginally at $3.37, the Keystone State remaining the price leader in the Northeast. New York is a distant second or third, at $3.15. Connecticut ($3.07) was sstable along with Massachusetts ($3.00). Maryland dropped back to third in the Northeast ($3.10).

Illinois was up three cents, to $3.25. Ohio ($3.02) and Indiana ($2.99) were static.

Mississippi ($2.65) held at the lowest, just slightly better than Oklahoma ($2.66) this week. Following are Texas ($2.68) and Louisiana ($2.68). Tennessee ($2.77), Alabama ($2.78), and South Carolina ($2.79) are next, followed by Kentucky ($2.82), Kansas and Arkansas (both, $2.83), and Missouri ($2.87). Georgia bounced higher, ($3.00). Florida fell 14 cents, to $3.01.

Sub-$3.00 gas can now be found in fewer states than in prior weeks. At least 21 U.S. states have prices under $3.00, down from more than 24 last week and 28 a few weeks ago.

Arizona ($3.42) is up another 16 cents from last week. Oregon showed prices higher by a dime, at $3.73. Nevada was up 14 cents, at $3.83. Washington was up 12 cents to $4.12, joining California in the small club of mainland states at $4.00 or higher. Utah ($3.03) was stable, but Idaho ($3.20) was higher by three cents.


Bitcoin

This week: $97,022.45
Last week: $96,477.31
2 weeks ago: $98,218.74
6 months ago: $59,131.83
One year ago: $51,685.54
Five years ago: $9,667.06

Bitcoin has not been over $100,00 since February 4. Hodlers are becoming impatient, former "diamond hands" turning to granite, eventually to sand as they see profits slip through their fingers. The price rise from $50,000 $60,000 to above $100,000 took place in September, October, and November of last year and has stalled out, with the all-time high now a look back to December 17.

There exists a growing degree of dissatisfaction with the Trump administration in moving bitcoin and crypto in general to a higher plain and some speculation that the President was pandering for votes in his pro-crypto messaging during the election cycle.

Rational people who largely agree that bitcoin is nothing more than vaporware and a slush fund for criminals and Wall Street firms like BlackRock (same thing) have watched the fluctuations in price and sentiment and are seeing chart patterns eerily similar to those in 2021, which plateaued at higher levels before falling sharply, decimating both price and sentiment.

In the end, crypto speculators will get what's coming to them in a cascade of rapid declines, just like previous iterations.


Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 88.63; last week: 89.66

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 1/19: $2,740.00
Gold price 1/26: $2,777.40
Gold price 2/2: $2,809.30
Gold price 2/9: $2,886.10
Gold price 2/16: $2,893.70

Silver price 1/19: $31.05
Silver price 1/26: $31.04
Silver price 2/2: $32.24
Silver price 2/9: $32.19
Silver price 2/16: $32.65

Gold peaked somewhere around $2,966 on the COMEX late Monday, was ripped lower, bounced back Thursday into Friday, then was mercilessly punched down all day Friday into the weekend. Silver took a similar roundtrip, though the high was on Friday, the price of $34.23 the best since late October.

It's the same tired story. Every time PMs apear ready to break out - and this is especially true for silver - the COMEX wheel grinds it down to more pedestrian levels. Sooner or later this price manipulation that has become so tortured and obvious will end. Until that time, there's little to do other than wait or buy more.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	38.49	44.95	39.96	39.00
1 oz silver bar:	35.22	46.22	41.14	41.48
1 oz gold coin:	2,930.59	3,071.97	3,019.45	3,024.07
1 oz gold bar: 2,996.31	3,050.50	3,020.39	3,019.36

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) ended three weeks of declines with a rise to $40.40, a gain of 97 cents from the February 9 price of $39.43 per troy ounce.


WEEKEND WRAP

Things in Washington D.C. and across America are just beginning to get interesting. It's going to take a while for Wall Street to begin reflecting the rapid-fire changes to the economic landscape. Judging by the most important metrics, stocks should be nearing a top, and with earnings season for the first quarter winding down, more focus will be on events in D.C. that are reshaping the government.

The massive movement of employees off the federal workforce roles will result in an unemployment spike. There's little doubt about that, but unemployment is always a lagging indicator. Impact to the nation's "wealth effect" will take considerably longer to materialize and it's possible that Trump's policies of mass firings, resignations, and furloughs, combined with potentially millions of deportations, and threats of tariffs rather than real ones, will likely stave off further inflationary tendencies.

Companies may not experience much pricing power with consumers and credit stretched to extremes. An end to "Project Ukraine" and peace with Russia may be emboldened by lifting of sanctions, especially with regard to energy. With oil prices are already under pressure, removal of sanctions on Russian oil could produce a significant glut worldwide, and, set against an environment of slack to declining demand, is outright dis-inflationary, possibly deflationary.

It's difficult to believe stocks can continue to rise in such an environment. Once housing prices begin to readjust back toward mean pricing, stocks and other financial assets should follow.

For now, it's a guessing game.

Happy Presidents' Day.

At the Close, Friday, February 14, 2025:
Dow: 44,546.08, -165.35 (-0.37%)
NASDAQ: 20,026.77, +81.13 (+0.41%)
S&P 500: 6,114.63, -0.44 (-0.01%)
NYSE Composite: 20,130.48, -50.81 (-0.25%)

For the Week:
Dow: +242.68 (+0.55%)
NASDAQ: +503.37 (+2.58%)
S&P 500: +88.64 (+1.47%)
NYSE Composite: +91.00 (+0.45%)
Dow Transports: +459.34 (+2.84%)

Editor's Note: X has temporarily suspended this account from posting for one week. Sorry.

Good Money vs. Bad Money, Trump and the Constitution; Silver Breaking Out; Draft Kings Losing Money a Winning Be

In the likeliest scenario, the Fed won't raise or lower interest rates significantly (remember: to quell inflation in the 1970s and early 1980s, Fed Chairman Paul Volker raised the effective federal funds rate all the way to 19%) over the next few years. There will be shrieking and hollering aplenty, but the federal funds target rate will range between 3.50 and 5.25%.

Having little to no effect on inflation, the Federal Reserve will be seen as incompetent and President Trump will move to abolish it. That would require action by congress, which could become a reality after the midterms of 2026. In the meantime, Trump may issue some executive order or orders and direct the Treasury to issue U.S. currency redeemable in gold and/or silver.

The price of gold in such an instance could be as high as $20,000 per ounce, some economists target it even higher. No matter what, it's going to be higher than it is currently. There seems to be no argument about that.

Timing and price levels are the two main points of argument at this late stage. There's also the possibility that Trump does nothing about the Fed or the dollar vis-a-vis the constitution, which pegs a U.S. dollar as equal to 371.25 grains of silver, meaning that a U.S. dollar is defined as containing 0.7734375 troy ounces of silver.

Well, if silver is around its current level of $32 an ounce, a constitutional dollar would be worth $24.75 in Federal Reserve Notes, making it, by far, the preferred currency. Some people, such as Alasdair Macleod and James Turk, both of goldmoney.com, suggest that the two currencies could circulate simultaneously, until, one or the other is eliminated.

Gresham's Law states that "bad money drives out good" and is often misunderstood. The principal takeaway is that people will spend the bad money and hoard the good money. Thus, it's entirely possible that the U.S. dollar, represented by the Fed's Federal Reserve Notes, will continue to be the currency of choice, while savers put away the constitutional money until such a time that it becomes officially the U.S. currency. Those constitutional dollars, redeemable in part or in whole for gold and/or silver, may be used as a vehicle for settling international trade balances.

That there could be two competing currencies is entirely plausible. As is currently the case, there already exists a school of thought that considers gold and silver currency, and further, the only true form of "money." So, gold, silver, and Federal Reserve Notes are already circulating through the U.S. economy, along with bitcoin and thousands of other alt-coins in the cryptoverse. It wouldn't be surprising to witness further decimation in the value of the Fed's currency by competition, which is ultimately a good thing.

Getting to market conditions this Friday morning, stock futures are tumbling in the pre-market, though not to any egregious level. Dow futures are down $122, and S&P futures off about $10 at 8:00 am ET.

It wouldn't be a shock if stocks sold off to end the week. It's been a persistent pattern. The Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P each sold off the past three Fridays, January 24, 31, and February 7. Maybe it's just herd behavior or a function of stock option expiration. Gone are the days of options expiry on the thrid Friday of each month. The current market structure accommodates not only options expiring on every Friday, but also every day, as in 0DTE (Zero Days to Expiration) options. In more ways than anyone dares to admit, derivatives (options, futures, swaps, repos, etc.) drive the actual market.

Gold came close to making another all-time high this morning on the COMEX. The continuous contract topped out at $2,963.20, precisely three dollar short of the high made Monday night. Silver made a big move in the quiet hours, hitting $34.16 earlier this morning. That's a three-month high, but anybody with skin in the game thinks $35 is a mortal lock, probably within weeks, and $40 will follow as day follow night. It would be stunning if silver doesn't exceed $40 an ounce this year. That would be about a 36% gain off the December 31, 2024 price of $29.24, pretty much par for the course these days.

It's noted with some irony that Draft Kings (DKNG) reported fourth quarter and full year results after the bell Thursday, missing its earnings target of -0.15 cents by losing 0.28, or, almost $138 million. The irony is that DraftKings purports to make money off gamblers, but hasn't made a single dime. In fact, the company has accumulated losses of $6,441,228,000. That's SIX BILLION, or, in other words, there needs to be a lot more losers using their platform. "Nice business model ya got there. Shame if anything would happen to it." Shares are up five percent in the pre-market. Go figure.

With the opening bell to close out the week in less than an hour, unless the bottom falls out today, the majors are looking at a winner for the week. Through Thursday's close, the Dow is up 408 points, the NASDAQ ahead by 422, and the S&P is up - after making a record close Thursday - 89 points.

At the Close, Thursday, February 13, 2025:
Dow: 44,711.43, +342.87 (+0.77%)
NASDAQ: 19,945.64, +295.69 (+1.50%)
S&P 500: 6,115.07, +63.10 (+1.04%)
NYSE Composite: 20,181.29, +118.98 (+0.59%)

PPI Comes in Red Hot at +3.5% Annualized; Wall Street Says "Buy All the Things"' Because Inflation in Clown World

Yesterday, the BLS released January CPI, which showed an increase of 0.5% and a year-over-year increase of three percent. Simply put, if CPI continues to rise at 0.5% monthly, the annual increase will not be three percent at the end of 2025, but six percent, yet the Federal Reserve insists that it finished its work on taming inflation well over a year ago and actually cut interest rates by a full percent from September through December of last year.

If it wasn't so horrible, the Fed's political miscalculation to try to keep one Donald J. Trump out of the white House by lowering the federal funds target rate by half a percent in September (just in time for the election of Kamala the Hutt), it would be laughable. Given that prices are rising instead of falling, nobody's laughing and nobody is listening to a word the Fed has to say, for a multitude of good reasons: they're wrong, they work in the interest of their shareholders (major commercial banks) instead of the American public, they have destroyed the value of the U.S. currency by 98% since inception in 1913, and, they're about to be extinguished by the man they tried so hard to defeat. Trump is hell-bent on restoring constitutional money to the United States. There is no need for the Federal Reserve (a private bank) if the Treasury issues US$.

What occurred yesterday on the major exchanges was familiar. Wall Street rejected the assumption that consumer prices actually matter, and, after futures collapsed on the CPI reading, when the cash market opened an hour later at what turned out to be the lows of the day on the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500, the reaction was adverse, buying the dip, as if nothing mattered other than higher stock prices. The NASDAQ, particularly the most egregious performer of stock market magic, was down more than 220 points at the open yet finished the session with a gain of six points. Woo-hoo!

The Dow and S&P ended with losses, but they were both well above the opening lows.

So, were all those selling in the futures market just plain wrong, stupid, ignorant of the reality that stocks must go up all the time, or, are markets just wired to reflect the never-ending con game to buy anything the Wall Street horde is pushing? AI? Dotcom? Crypto? Bio-tech?

Maybe its something different. Maybe stocks will continue to rise because of inflation. In Weimar Germany and in Zimbabwe, during their bouts of hyperinflation, stocks soared. However, the reality of the situation exposed the lie: 200, 300, 500% gains in the stock market didn't stand a candle to inflation running at 600, 800, or more than 1000 percent. The price of their investments may have looked fine on paper, but their value was being decimated, and high stock prices today may be just a symptom of the underlying inflation disease.

Today, the BLS is treating the financial community to their estimate of Producer Price Inflation (PPI), which has been a mixed bag the past six months, but has inched higher the past two.

Here is the BLS headline statement:

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.4 percent in January, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.5 percent in December 2024 and 0.2 percent in November. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 3.5 percent for the 12 months ended January 2025.

Leading the broad-based January advance in the index for final demand, prices for final demand services rose 0.3 percent. The index for final demand goods moved up 0.6 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.3 percent in January after moving up 0.4 percent in December. For the 12 months ended in January, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 3.4 percent.

So, the unadjusted 3.5% annual inflation at the producer wellhead and 3.4% annual core producer inflation is good, no? NO. It's not good. Producer prices largely get passed onto consumers, so expect the CPI to continue going higher while the genii at the Fed do nothing.

Drilling down a bit to the BLS charts, PPI change in final demand from 12 months ago (unadjusted) looks like this:

August: +2.1%; September: +2.1%; October: +2.7%; November: +2.9%; December: +3.5%; January: +3.5%.

Now, all you math majors: is +3.5% inflation better than +2.1% inflation? Anybody notice a pattern developing?

These figures are all higher than what was expected, yet, upon the release, stock futures jumped higher, because, well, if the currency buys less, then stocks must be priced higher.

Makes perfect sense, in Clown World. (OK, OK, wait. Stock futures were down hard yesterday and stocks rallied, so today, futures are up, so stocks will fall? Mmmm, maybe not, since logic is not allowed in Clown World.)

At the Close, Thursday, February 13, 2025:
Dow: 44,368.56, -225.09 (-0.50%)
NASDAQ: 19,649.95, +6.10 (+0.03%)
S&P 500: 6,051.97, -16.53 (-0.27%)
NYSE Composite: 20,062.31, -105.89 (-0.53%)

$1,090 Silver and Why CPI Won't Matter Very Much Longer; Inflation is Back, Baby; CPI up 0.5% in January, 3.0% Annualized

Wall Street and the financial press is going to continue to spew their nonsense about investing in stocks, inflation fears, interest rates and the Fed right up until the biggest story of the century slaps them - and millions of passive investors - in the face.

President Trump, like him or not, is on a mission to create America's "Golden Age." That is the term he used in his inaugural speech and only those with a narrow view of the world or none at all will deny his lofty goal.

By his invocation of the term "golden age", Trump envisions the United States, and, by extension, the world, to exist in a state of "primordial peace, harmony, stability, and prosperity." (Wikipedia)

Being ultimately a pragmatist, ushering in the "Golden Age" will require massive structural changes to the American political and financial systems, which is why Elon Musk, via DOGE, is largely dismantling the ramparts of government waste, fraud, and abuse, piece by piece, excess by excess, though the larger object of structural reform remains embedded in the financial system and the U.S. constitution.

Once Trump, Musk, and other appointees and allies root out the corrupt politicians that have fed at the public trough for decades and decimated the agencies and departments responsible for funneling money to House members and Senators (and probably a good number of mayors and governors), his troops will take aim on the ultimate prize: the Federal Reserve and their counterfeiting operation that has deprived America of its rightful prosperity.

Since 1913, when the Federal Reserve System was authorized by Congress, America has been transformed from a peaceful, prosperous nation to one of warfare and welfare, a system that is dying and is about to end.

Backing up this thesis is the recent inflow of gold to the United States from England and elsewhere, notably even India and China. Central banks, especially those in China, Russia, and India, have been buying and hoarding gold for the better part of the last 15 years and other central banks have taken heed and done likewise. Central bank purchases of gold have been at record levels the past three years (2022-24) and are likely to exceed those levels in 2025, with the unusual twist being that the United States will likely be the largest buyer, having to play catch up after years of denial and apathy.

In August, 2017, when Trunp's first Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, was dispatched to Fort Knox to have a look at the gold stored there, it was no accident or mere photo op. Trump sent Mnuchin specifically to see that the gold was still there, and, according to the Secretary, it was. It was the first visit to the facility by a Treasury Secretary since 1948.

The current and ongoing movement of tons of gold heading to American shores, while being largely dismissed or ignored by the vain and willfully blind financial press, is just the beginning of the biggest story of the century.

Gold hawks, such as James Turk, founder of goldmoney.com, recently opined on King World News that President Trump might be mulling (or planning for) the prospect of revoking President Nixon’s August 15, 1971, Executive Order to “suspend temporarily” the dollar’s link to gold. If true, and Trump puts the U.S. back on a gold standard, the changes will be monumental and highly beneficial to holder of gold and silver.

Turk goes further, expressing his belief that gold will be revalued at $10,900 per ounce, and the gold:silver ratio that for so long has been a product of financial repression by the countries that favor fiat currencies (all of them), but especially England, the European Union, the United States, Japan, and Switzerland via the COMEX, LBMA, Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF), World Bank, and the IMF, would be declared at 10:1.

If Turk's prognostication turns out ot be true, long-suffering holders of gold and, by far, silver, stand to make enormous gains in wealth. A gold price of $10,900 and a gold:silver ratio of 10-1 implies a silver price of $1,090 per ounce.

For those who think it's not possible, consider that gold was $270 an ounce in 1999, and today is approaching $3,000, a more than tenfold increase. A revaluation to $10,900 would be little more than a tripling.

Head of research at goldmoney.com, Alasdair Macleod, on King World News chimes in with more detail about gold flows and the impact to global economics.

Naturally, there will be skeptics, those who favor continuation of the Federal Reserve's slave system of debt creation from thin air and fractional reserve banking and the government's $36 trillion black hole. All of Washington D.C. and Wall Street are tethered to the fraudulent currency system and recent protests from lawmakers to the dismantling of their favorite slush fund entities like USAid offer proof not only is the political system corrupt to the core, but that it is fed by an equally corrupt financial apparatus.

No matter which way the winds blow, there are choices to be made. Either continue in debt service to the Federal Reserve via income tax, withholding, and interest rate manipulation, or buy gold and/or silver, or both, and wait.

With all of that as background, at 8:30 am ET, the BLS released January CPI and it wasn't what the Fed or Wall Street stock pushers had in mind.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in January, after rising 0.4 percent in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.

Inflation is re-emerging, without a doubt. The CPI releas send everything down: stock futures, oil, gold, silver, crypto, you name it.

Get ready for some serious recalculation of your retirement plans.

Buy Gold. Buy Silver. Do. It. Now.

At the Close, Tuesday, February 11, 2025:
Dow: 44,593.65, +123.24 (+0.28%)
NASDAQ: 19,643.86, -70.41 (-0.36%)
S&P 500: 6,068.50, +2.06 (+0.03%)
NYSE Composite: 20,168.21, +50.33 (+0.25%)

Stocks Churn; McDonald's Gains on Earnings Miss; Coca-Cola a Bright Spot; Gold Makes Another Record as Supply Comes to U.S.

Following Friday's slide, traders took little time to buy the perceived dip, boosting stocks right out of the gate and making highs for the day early in the session. For the most part, the major indices wandered in a tight range. The S&P 500 moved in a rnage of just 27 points, top to bottom, for the entire session.

Markets are somewhat directionless, mystified by the spell of the Trump agenda, which they haven't quite figured out, while also awaiting January CPI on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday. In the interim, companies are still reporting full year 2024 and fourth quarter earnings, among them, McDonald's (MCD), which reported prior to Monday's open.

McDonald's had a good showing, up nearly 5.00% after it missed expectations top and bottom. Revenue for the fourth quarter fell 0.28% from a year ago to $6.39 billion, missing expectations for $6.45 billion. Adjusted earnings per share of $2.80 were below Wall Street's estimate of $2.84. The company attributed the quarterly decline to an E. coli outbreak that sent U.S. same store sales tumbling 1.4% from the same period a year ago.

These are the kind of desperate excuses and investment decisions that lead ultimately to bad outcomes. Revenue for all of 2024 was $25.92 billion versus $25.99 billion for 2023. Adjusted earnings per share were $11.39 in 2024 versus $11.74 in 2023. The stock has more than doubled over the past five years and hit a record high of 316 in October, 2024. It carries a dividend yield of just 2.30%, less than inflation, and a P/E of 27.

With immigration and freebies to illegals being cut off, Americans barely able to afford McDonald's offerings of food substitutes, a recession looming, and Mickey D's margins cratering, stock pickers should be shorting this stock rather than sending it higher on what were, effectively, lousy results, E. coli or no E. coli.

One commenter put it thusly: "Food at McDonalds tastes like a punishment for being poor."

Prior to Tuesday's open, Humana (HUM), British Petroleum (BP), Coca-Cola (KO), AutoNation (AN), Shopify (SHOP), and Marriott (MAR) all reported.

Briefly, serial under-performer Humana (HUM) posted a loss of $693 million, or -$5.76 a share, compared to a loss of $541 million, or -$4.42 a share a year ago. Stripping out one-time items, losses per share came in at -$2.16. Analysts expected an adjusted loss of -$2.21 a share. Humana was down 2.74% on Monday. In pre-market trading, it's up 3.20%. The stock hit a high of 554 in October, 2022 and has slid to 266 as of yesterday. This is not an investment; it's a trade.

British Petroeum (BP) reported its worst quarter in four years, missing expectations of 0.08 per share with a reported 0.07. The company cited weak refining margins, turnarounds at plants that lowered output and raised costs, as well as corporate charges for the decline in profit in the last three months of last year. OK, sure. Pass.

Coca-Cola (KO) was one of the bright spots, reporting earnings per share of 55 cents against 52 cents expected and 46 cents a year ago. Revenue for the quarter was $11.54 billion vs. $10.68 billion estimated.

AutoNation (AN) posted an earnings beat for the quarter, but net income was USD 186.1 million compared to USD 216.2 million a year ago. Diluted earnings per share from continuing operations was USD 4.64 compared to USD 5.04 a year ago. Diluted earnings per share was USD 4.64 compared to USD 5.04 a year ago.

For the full year, revenue was USD 26,765.4 million compared to USD 26,948.9 million a year ago. Net income was USD 692.2 million compared to USD 1,021.1 million a year ago. Shares are marginally higher priro to the opening bell.

Shopify (SHOP) Q4 revenue surged 31.3%, but shares are bouncing around, down as much as seven percent pre-market. The company had adjusted earnings of 44 cents a share, topping estimates for 43 cents. In the year-ago quarter, earnings per share were 36 cents. Shares are close to all-time highs and the P/E ratio is over 100. Can Shopify succeed where others, like WIX or AMZN have? Looks a little pricey, but they are into AI and are making profits.

Marriott (MAR) posted full year revenue of $6.43 billion vs analyst estimates of $6.39 billion (5.5% year-on-year growth). Adjusted 4th quarter EPS was $2.45 vs. analyst estimates of $2.38. Share are lower due to middling guidance. Stock price is around 300 with a P/E over 30 and dividend yield of less than one percent. Hope they're doing share buybacks.

That's the equity roundup that's sent stock futures tumbling Tuesday morning. Dow futures: -$88; NASDAQ: -$96; S&P: -16.

Gold hit another all-time high early this A.M. at $2,968.50 on the COMEX. It's being beaten down, currently around $2,920 per ounce. Silver remains in the bargain basement, down this morning at $31.92. Supply has been flowing to the United States since Trump's election in November. Most don't know what to make of this recent phenomenon, but some are suggesting that ramping up gold purchases could be a sign that Trump ultimately intends to finish off the era of fiat money by eliminating the Federal Reserve. That would be a feather in Trump's All-American hat, but it's really too early to tell just what he's up to concerning the U.S. debt and the Fed.

Tuesday may be a little on the dull side with CPI for February topping the ticket Wednesday morning. After the bell Tuesday Doordash (DASH), Zillow Group (ZG), Lyft (LYFT), Gilead (GILD), Supermircro (SMCI) report.

Wednesday, before the bell, KraftHeinz (KHC), Ryder (R), Barrick Gold (GOLD), Generac (GNRC), and CVS Health (CVS) report.

At the Close, Monday, February 10, 2025:
Dow: 44,470.41, +167.01 (+0.38%)
NASDAQ: 19,714.27, +190.87 (+0.98%)
S&P 500: 6,066.44, +40.45 (+0.67%)
NYSE Composite: 20,117.88, +78.39 (+0.39%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Chaos at the Capital and Over Capital; Gold Soars as More Pours into US; Stocks Peaked? Treasuries Divergent

Three weeks into the second term of presidency for Donald J. Trump and what have we gotten?

Lots of people fired or quit, agencies being blown apart by DOGE, Democrats in congress running around screaming like somebody just stole their lunch money (Musk and Trump actually did).

Sounds like a WIN-WIN-WIN situation, because 1) wasteful spending, kickbacks, and corruption are being eliminated; 2) the government is downsizing its workforce, saving money, and; 3) Democrats are putting on quite a show for the American public, which is at the same time as entertaining as it is revealing about where all the money went.

Wait until they dig into the Ukraine funding, the Clinton foundation (billions stolen from Haiti), defense contractors. Those will make the USAid slush fund look like chump change, a bad tip, a rounding error.

Can we get the Epstein list and Diddy tapes released? Do you want to see suicides and hangings?

While the government willingly and thankfully self-destructs, Wall Street eyes the situation with a jaundiced eye and begins to question things. The S&P, NASDAQ, and the Dow Jones Transportation Average were down for a second straight week, with the Dow down as well this week after a small positive last week. The NYSE Composite has strung together four straight weekly gains, though the last two combined amounted to just 42 points up, less than 1/4 percent.

Stocks

Pattern recognition is something of an art, though it shouldn't be difficult to spot the changes since early December in the daily drift from morning highs to afternoon lows that have manifested themselves. One longer term pattern worth watching is that of the major indices as compared to those in early 2020, just prior to the big "plandemic" crash engineered by globalist forces.

Back then, the major indices were hitting new highs after an extended bull run that began in December 2018, similar to the current condition off the October 2022 lows. This does not suggest anything other than the patterns and time elements are well-aligned. In February 2020, stocks began to fall, culminating in a huge selloff in stocks, forcing extraordinary interest rate cuts and implementation of emergency programs by the Fed and direct payments to Americans from congress. The end result was massive money creation out of thin air and inflation, the likes of which hadn't been seen since the 1970s.

Considering the degree of chaos being fomented in Washington D.C. by the unraveling of the deep state and all the corruption, kickbacks, and levels of fraud that would make Al Capone jealous, the possibility of a major correction in stocks cannot be dismissed. Coupled with the mysterious on-shoring of massive quantities of gold, there's at least a non-zero possibility that the United States might suffer a constitutional crisis resulting in what would be a happy ending: trials and dismissals of large numbers of congress and elimination of the leeches at the Federal Reserve, a return to honest money issued by the U.S. Treasury at minimal cost (printing).

Wall Street, which prefers its bread buttered on both sides, would probably be against such a disorderly process and signal its displeasure by decisive selling pressure until there's resolution, which could take months if not years. The end result is an impoverished nation setting about rebuilding itself. Golden ages are built with gold, not paper. No matter what happens over the next six to 18 months, risk is ever-present and growing, gnawing away at investor confidence as the financial and political systems are pressured.

In the meantime, stocks and Wall Street will continue whistling past the graves of retail investors. Theshow must go on, as they say. The coming week will be chock-full of earnings reports and important data.

Monday: (before open) McDonald's (MCD), Tower Semicnductor (TSEM), CNA (CNA), Incyte (INCY); (after close) Vertex (VRTX), Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC), Inspire Medical (INSP)

Tuesday: (before open) Humana (HUM), British Petroleum (BP), Coca-Cola (KO), AutoNation (AN), Shopify (SHOP), Marriott (MAR); (after close) Doordash (DASH), Zillow Group (ZG), Lyft (LYFT), Gilead (GILD), Supermircro (SMCI)

Wednesday: (before open) KraftHeinz (KHC), Ryder (R), Barrick Gold (GOLD), Generac (GNRC), CVS Health (CVS), Bigen (BIIB); (after close) Kinross (KGC), Cisco (CSCO), MGM Resorts (MGM), Robinhood (HOOD), Reddit (RDDT)

Thursday: (before open) SONY (SONY), Duke Energy (DUK), Crocs (CROX), John Deere (DE); (after close) Twilio (TWLO), Draft Kings (DKNG), Coinbase (COIN), Roku (ROKU), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Applied Materials (AMAT), AirB&B (ABNB), Hecla Mining (HL)

Friday: (before open) Enbridge (ENB), Fortis (FTS), AMC Networks (AMCX), Moderna (MRNA).

Data drops will be substantial later in the week, starting with January CPI on Wednesday, and PPI Thursday. January Retail Sales on Friday probably won't cause much of a ruckus unless, of course, they're better than expected, in which case stocks would sell off because Wall Street's tortured logic has returned to a "good news is bad" condition in which economic and/or employment strength translates into further delays on Fed rate cuts (or rate hikes).

As far as CPI and PPI are concerned, analysts have been turning a blind eye to the data, preferring to always and everywhere consider inflation to be already conquered and thus, unimportant, without considering the reality of its persistence or the possibility of continued dis-inflation and recession or worse.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
01/03/2025	4.44	4.35	4.34	4.31	4.25	4.18
01/10/2025	4.42	4.35	4.36	4.33	4.27	4.25
01/17/2025	4.43	4.35	4.34	4.32	4.28	4.21
01/24/2025	4.45	4.36	4.35	4.32	4.25	4.17
01/31/2025	4.37	4.37	4.31	4.33	4.28	4.17
02/07/2025	4.37	4.38	4.35	4.37	4.30	4.25

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
01/03/2025	4.28	4.32	4.41	4.51	4.60	4.88	4.82
01/10/2025	4.40	4.46	4.59	4.70	4.77	5.04	4.96
01/17/2025	4.27	4.33	4.42	4.52	4.61	4.91	4.84
01/24/2025	4.27	4.33	4.43	4.53	4.63	4.91	4.85
01/31/2025	4.22	4.27	4.36	4.47	4.58	4.88	4.83
02/07/2025	4.29	4.31	4.34	4.42	4.49	4.75	4.69

Treasuries began to manifest the ongoing confusion and chaos emanating from the nation's capital. With the short end virtually unchanged, a noticeable, structural divergence is evidenced in notes, with a split apparent between three and five year yields. Ones, twos, and threes all increased, but fives, sevens, and 10s went in the opposite direction, resulting in a severe flattening of the entire structure, from the lowest yield of 4.25% on 1-year notes to the high of 4.69% on 30-year bonds for a complete spread of less than one-half percent.

With the Fed and the Trump Treasury department at loggerheads, the result is a tug-of-war-and-will between the two most powerful forces in monetary and fiscal policy. While the Federal Reserve envisions no reason to lower the federal funds target rate at the base of all monetary policy, Trump and newly-installed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are taking a fiscal approach to long-term rates.

Bessent recently opined, "If we deregulate the economy, if we get this tax bill done, if we get energy down, then rates will take care of themselves and the dollar will take care of itself." For all appearances, Bessent can not just talk the talk, he is willing to walk the walk.

What the Fed - itself becoming inconsequential and something of an ineffectual mirage in monetary matters - does from here on out is not likely to be as important or influential in markets as what Trump and Treasury propose and perform. It should come as welcome relief to American citizens that their lives are no longer going to be ruled by the dictates of a private banking behemoth which is nearing the end of its useful existence. With Trump commanding markets, policy, and broadly, the economy, the Fed will likely be out of business in a few short years.

Gold isn't rushing to America for no good reason. The United States is rapidly aligning itself with BRICS nations that have been acquiring gold for the better part of the last two decades. In America's rush to catch up, the price of gold will matter much more than the yield on a one-month bill or one-year note.

The effect of this reordering of control over financial markets can be seen quite clearly in the spread on 2s-10s, which dropped dramatically this week, from +36 to +20. When the 10-year note yield falls below 4.00%, which it will, expect the Fed to cry foul and have no choice but to lower the federal funds target rate to 3.75-4.00% or lower, a full fifty basis points from its current level.

This condition of the federal government warring against policies of the Federal Reserve bears close attention going forward as the changes brought about are certain to be monumental.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32

Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil prices continue to fall, from $77.37 at the New York close on January 17, to $74.60 on January 24, to $73.81 on January 31, and finally to $71.06 at the New York close this Friday. The oil rout has only begun. Prices should continue coming down into the mid-to-low 60s and possibly further.

Energy, priced in dollars, will become cheaper and cheaper should President Trump's policies and deregulation take firm hold of markets.

Prices at the pump have yet to reflect lower input prices, i.e., crude, but they will, shortly. There's usually a lag of roughly a month as old supply is sold off and replaced by newer, cheaper fuel. The switch from winter to summer blends will also keep prices artificially elevated for a short time, but, considering the direction of the trend, almost every state other than Hawaii and California will probably see gas at the pump under $3.00 by May or June.

Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump up four cents from last week, at $3.11 a gallon Sunday morning.

California continues to lead the way, up sharply from last week, at $4.56, from $4.43 a gallon.

Pennsylvania was stable at $3.36, the Keystone State remaining the price leader in the Northeast. New York is a distant second or third, at $3.15. Connecticut ($3.08) was slightly higher along with Massachusetts ($3.01). Maryland is now the second-priciest in the Northeast ($3.19).

Illinois fell by a penny, to $3.22. Ohio ($3.03) and Indiana ($2.93) were both marginally higher, though the overall trend is headed down further.

Mississippi ($2.63) wrested back the tital of overall low-leader from Oklahoma ($2.71) this week. Following are Texas ($2.68) and Louisiana ($2.70) are now both lower than Oklahoma. Tennessee ($2.73), Alabama ($2.78), and Arkansas ($2.79) come in just pennies lower than Kentucky and Kansas (both, $2.82), and South Carolina ($2.83). Missouri ($2.87) and Georgia ($2.93) follow. Florida's price popped back up a dime, to $3.15.

Sub-$3.00 gas can now be found in fewer states than in prior weeks. At least 24 U.S. states have prices under $3.00, down from more than 28 last week.

Arizona ($3.26) is up another two cents from last week. Oregon showed prices higher, at $3.63, Nevada at $3.69. Washington was up eight cents to $4.00, joining California in the small club of mainland states at $4.00 or higher. Utah ($3.03) was stable, but Idaho ($3.17) was higher by ten cents.

Bitcoin

This week: $96,477.31
Last week: $98,218.74
2 weeks ago: $105,019.30
6 months ago: $60,463.20
One year ago: $47,746.95
Five years ago: $8,531.39

Bitcoin was close to $106,000 on Thursday, January 30, less than two weeks ago. It can't die soon enough. Those hodlers hoping for bitcoin to become part of a U.S. sovereign wealth fund might as well be living in Wonderland along with Alice and the Mad Hatter.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 89.66; last week: 87.14

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 1/12: $2,717.40
Gold price 1/19: $2,740.00
Gold price 1/26: $2,777.40
Gold price 2/2: $2,809.30
Gold price 2/9: $2,886.10

Silver price 1/12: $31.30
Silver price 1/19: $31.05
Silver price 1/26: $31.04
Silver price 2/2: $32.24
Silver price 2/9: $32.19

Gold soared to another record close on Friday, up $76.80 for the week while silver actually fell a nickel, proving once again the nearly-complete disregard for silver as a monetary metal, at least according to COMEX and the LBMA.

Bemused silver stackers should be reminded that silver remains the measure of U.S. constitutional money despite the many efforts over the years by central bankers, legislators, and other nefarious people to destroy it in its role as the money of gentlemen. Once again, the blatant disregard for silver sets up yet another buying opportunity for true believers. A gold:silver ratio indicates gold in an overbought condition with silver lagging and the obvious investment choice going forward.

There is perhaps something of a buyer's strike or remorse setting in. Silver holders are likely to be less-than-enthusiastic about this most recent slap in the face. Prices on ebay reflect a lull in demand. When silver regains its rightful place as a monetary metal, the price will soar. Some believe triple digits are possible, and they may be on the right track. A gold:silver ratio of even 25 would put silver at $115.44 TODAY. When sanity is eventually restored and fiat currencies dead and buried, silver should command a price commensurate with the historical 12:1 or 16:1 ratio to gold.

The United State constitution mandates that 1 US dollar should equal 371.25 grains of silver, this means that the dollar is defined as containing 0.7734375 troy ounces of silver. If silver was backing our currency, we would be by far the wealthiest nation on Earth by orders of magnitude.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	36.00	40.00	38.14	38.06
1 oz silver bar:	37.00	46.95	41.00	40.50
1 oz gold coin:	2,935.00	3,138.40	3,035.46	3,041.23
1 oz gold bar: 2,972.10	3,081.84	3,008.20	2,999.45

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) fell for a third straight week, to $39.43, a decline of 75 cents from the February 2nd price of $40.18 per troy ounce.

Once more, silver is indicating buyer pushback against high premia. 10-15% should be standard. Besides, with the COMEX continuing to pressure the silver price, why would anybody pay over $40 when spot is $31-32?

WEEKEND WRAP

“You can ignore reality, but you cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.” - Ayn Rand

Enjoy the game. Fearless Rick has posted his pick and the coin flip pick, plus 19 Super Bowl quizzes, popular prop bets, theories and more at IdleGuy.com Sports.

Also, scores and MVPs of every Super Bowl from 1967 to the present.

At the Close, Friday, February 7, 2025:
Dow: 44,303.40, -444.23 (-0.99%)
NASDAQ: 19,523.40, -268.59 (-1.36%)
S&P 500: 6,025.99, -57.58 (-0.95%)
NYSE Composite: 20,039.48, -118.10 (-0.59%)

For the Week:
Dow: -241.26 (-0.54%)
NASDAQ: -104.04 (-0.53%)
S&P 500: -14.54 (-0.24%)
NYSE Composite: +40.66 (+0.20%)
Dow Transports: -159.65 (-0.98%)