Just for openers, WTI crude oil feel for a fifth straight week. Gold finished higher an eighth straight week. Stocks got a serious reality check on Friday, leaving the three major indices - Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 - clinging to gains of one to two percent. If it wasn't for a severe downdraft the final four trading sessions of 2024 (December 26, 27, 30, 31), all but the Dow would be down for the year. As it is, they’re each well off recent highs.
Stocks
Friday was a train wreck, sending all the indices into the red for the week. Charts are eerily reminiscent of either 2020 or 2022. With Friday's report of a new deadly virus discovered in China, some are betting on 2020, though for the intellectual class of covid/shutdowns/vaccine-deniers, the message delivered after the close of European markets Friday by the dubious Daily Mail, citing the Wuhan Institute of Virology as its source, amounts to nothing more than EU-inspired fake news, promulgated in response to U.S. President Donald Trump's attempt to impose peace upon Ukraine, thus flushing the EU's plan to permanently enslave their populations down a proverbial toilet.
NASDAQ's 438-point drop wasn't even as deep as the January 27 613-point wreck, so, nothing new here, just another in a series of dumps, which have been frequent since (ah-ha!) Trump's election. There's probably more pain to come. The recent patterns suggest distribution (pump-and-dump). Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on $334 billion in cash, and that's after the firm paid $27 billion in taxes. Democrats may lament billionaires, but Berkshire is certainly paying its "fair share."
Things are getting hairy and scary. The U.S. is attacking drug cartels in Mexico, Musk continues to slash and burn via DOGE, Pope Francis is in critical condition, Trump fired the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Air Force General Charles Q. Brown Jr. (ha, take that, Charlie Brown), Kash Patel was confirmed as Director of the FBI on Friday, and there's a critical election in Germany TODAY.
Upcoming full year and fourth quarter earnings reports:
Monday: (before open): Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), Owens Corning (OC), Domino's Pizza (DPZ); (after close) Cliffs (CLF), Chegg (CHGG), hims | hers (HIMS)
Tuesday: (before open) Keurig Dr. Pepper (KDP), Home Depot (HD), Krispy Kreme (DNUT); (after close) Instacart (CART), Workday (WDAY), Intuit (INTU), First Solar (FSLR), AMC Entertainment (AMC)
Wednesday: (before open) Advance Auto Parts (AAP), AB InBev (BUD), Stellantis (STLA), NRG (NRG), Lowe's (LOW); (after close) Nvidia (NVDA), SalesForce (CRM), Kratos (KTOS)
Thursday: (before open) Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLH), Gray Communications (GTN), TB Bank (TD), Warner Brothers Discovery (WBD); (after close) Bloom Energy (BE), Dell (DELL), SoundHound (SOUN)
Friday: (before open) Frontline PLC (FRO), Butterfly (BFLY), 1st Dibs (DIBS), Fubo TV (FUBO).
The second estimate for fourth quarter GDP is released Thursday, along with durable goods data for January. Both reports should bear weight on markets.
The coming week's data will close out with the PCE Price Index for January - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge - on Friday before the opening bell. This is a readout that is losing its significance as the Fed's influence on markets in general is being sent to back-burners.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
| 01/17/2025 | 4.43 | 4.35 | 4.34 | 4.32 | 4.28 | 4.21 |
| 01/24/2025 | 4.45 | 4.36 | 4.35 | 4.32 | 4.25 | 4.17 |
| 01/31/2025 | 4.37 | 4.37 | 4.31 | 4.33 | 4.28 | 4.17 |
| 02/07/2025 | 4.37 | 4.38 | 4.35 | 4.37 | 4.30 | 4.25 |
| 02/14/2025 | 4.37 | 4.38 | 4.34 | 4.35 | 4.32 | 4.23 |
| 02/21/2025 | 4.36 | 4.38 | 4.32 | 4.34 | 4.30 | 4.15 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
| 01/17/2025 | 4.27 | 4.33 | 4.42 | 4.52 | 4.61 | 4.91 | 4.84 |
| 01/24/2025 | 4.27 | 4.33 | 4.43 | 4.53 | 4.63 | 4.91 | 4.85 |
| 01/31/2025 | 4.22 | 4.27 | 4.36 | 4.47 | 4.58 | 4.88 | 4.83 |
| 02/07/2025 | 4.29 | 4.31 | 4.34 | 4.42 | 4.49 | 4.75 | 4.69 |
| 02/14/2025 | 4.26 | 4.26 | 4.33 | 4.41 | 4.47 | 4.75 | 4.69 |
| 02/21/2025 | 4.19 | 4.19 | 4.26 | 4.35 | 4.42 | 4.69 | 4.67 |
For whatever reason, the Fed added a 6-week bill to the treasury stack. It is not included here this week, but will appear at some point going forward. There's likely to be some volatility to the new issue, so it will deserve some attention, though not much.
Steady as she goes on spreads, with 2s-10s slightly elevated by two basis points to +23. Full Spectrum returned +31 at week's end.
The Fed is becoming increasingly irrelevant. With any luck, they'll still be in business by this time next year, though its extended future is very much in doubt. Having robbed Americans blind via inflation for the past 112 years, the people have had enough of fiat currency and fractional reserve banking, amounting to nothing better than counterfeiting. Americans are unlikely to get their money back, but at least they'll be rid of what "Old Hickory" Andrew Jackson called "a den of vipers" when he abolished the Second Bank of the United States. History can't repeat soon enough.
Spreads:
2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
Oil/Gas
WTI crude oil prices continue to fall, from $77.37 at the New York close on January 17, to $74.60 on January 24, to $73.81 on January 31, to $71.06 on February 7, $70.56 on February 14, and finally, 70.25 at the New York close this Friday. Five consecutive weeks of falling prices by a cumulative nine percent should have convinced enough people that the price of oil is not going back up any time soon.
Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump has finally begun to fall, at $3.13 (down two cents) a gallon Sunday morning, reflecting the lag time between crude prices and gas prices. The price of gas nationwide should continue falling for the next four to six weeks, longer if oil prices continue to slide, which they should.
California remains top of the heap, up only two cents from last week, at $4.80.
Pennsylvania was fell two cents, at $3.35, the Keystone State remaining the price leader in the Northeast. New York is a distant second, stable at $3.15. Connecticut ($3.07) and Massachusetts ($3.01) were pretty much unchanged. Maryland dropped down to $3.03. New Jersey is back to an even $3.00.
Even Illinois was down a couple of cents, to $3.23. Ohio ($2.89) and Indiana ($2.92) were down the most in the Midwest.
Mississippi ($2.63) fell two cents, holding at the lowest in the country, just slightly better than Louisiana ($2.65) this week. Texas was next at $2.70. Oklahoma was actually higher, checking in a $2.72. Tennessee ($2.71) fell six cents. Alabama ($2.75), Kentucky ($2.76), Arkansas ($2.77) and South Carolina ($2.78) are next. Kansas and Missouri are both at $2.82, followed by Missouri ($2.85), all lower. Georgia dropped two cents ($2.98). Florida continues to fluctuate, up seven cents this week to $3.08.
Sub-$3.00 gas can now be found in five more states than last week. At least 26 U.S. states have prices under $3.00.
The West continues to suffer the highest prices in the country. Arizona ($3.41) was off just a penny. Oregon showed another penny increase, at $3.74, while Nevada dropped one cent, to $3.82. Washington was up to $4.13, joining California in the tiny club of mainland states at $4.00 or higher. Utah ($3.02) was stable, and Idaho ($3.18) fell by two cents.
Bitcoin
This week: $95,900.56
Last week: $97,022.45
2 weeks ago: $96,477.31
6 months ago: $63,975.61
One year ago: $51,728.53
Five years ago: $8,531.39
Bitcoin has not been over $100,00 since February 4. Hodlers are becoming impatient, former "diamond hands" turning to granite, eventually to sand as they see profits slip through their fingers. The price rise from $50,000, $60,000 to above $100,000 took place in September, October, and November of last year and has stalled out, with the all-time high now a look back to December 17 ($106.490.10).
There's growing dissatisfaction with the Trump administration over moving bitcoin and crypto in general to a higher plain amid speculation that the President was pandering for votes in his pro-crypto messaging during the election cycle. Otherwise, with gold and silver soaring this year (after soaring last year), people may be awakening to the idea that bitcoin and crypto isn't "digital gold" but really all a fantasy, i.e., fool's gold.
Rational people who largely agree that bitcoin is nothing more than vaporware and a slush fund for criminals and Wall Street firms like BlackRock (same thing) have watched the fluctuations in price and sentiment and are seeing chart patterns eerily similar to those in 2021, which plateaued at higher levels before falling sharply, decimating both price and sentiment.
In the end, crypto speculators will get what's coming to them in a cascade of rapid declines, just like previous iterations.
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 89.84; last week: 88.63
Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 1/26: $2,777.40
Gold price 2/2: $2,809.30
Gold price 2/9: $2,886.10
Gold price 2/16: $2,893.70
Gold price 2/23: $2,949.60
Silver price 1/26: $31.04
Silver price 2/2: $32.24
Silver price 2/9: $32.19
Silver price 2/16: $32.65
Silver price 2/23: $32.83
Gold continues to shine, the price continuing to make new highs week after week. Silver made nominal gains over the course of the week, once again smacked down on Friday after reaching a high for the week of $33.77 Thursday. On the COMEX, Gold has finished every Friday this year (eight straight) higher than the previous one.
Year-to-date, precious metals are outpacing stocks by a wide margin. Silver is ahead by 14.02%, gold up 11.83%. By comparison, the S&P 500 is up 2.24%, the Dow, 2.08%, NASDAQ, 1.10%. Call it the "Trump Effect" or whatever, but Trump's promise of a "Golden Age" for America has been nothing but good for PMs.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
| Item/Price | Low | High | Average | Median |
| 1 oz silver coin: | 36.76 | 49.99 | 40.67 | 39.64 |
| 1 oz silver bar: | 38.00 | 53.66 | 42.54 | 41.30 |
| 1 oz gold coin: | 2,993.76 | 3,200.00 | 3,111.38 | 3,122.42 |
| 1 oz gold bar: | 3,052.60 | 3,107.64 | 3,077.11 | 3,074.48 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) was higher for a second straight week, at $41.04, a gain of 64 cents from the February 16 price of $40.40 per troy ounce.
WEEKEND WRAP
Despite what most people in the Eastern half of the U.S. are thinking after another bout with severe cold and prime winter conditions, good times are ahead. Spring is officially less than four weeks away. Baseball’s Spring Training is already well underway in Florida and Arizona. MLB's regular season Opening Day is March 27.
At the Close, Friday, February 21, 2025:
Dow: 43,428.02, -748.63 (-1.69%)
NASDAQ: 19,524.01, -438.36 (-2.20%)
S&P 500: 6,013.13, -104.39 (-1.71%)
NYSE Composite: 19,881.54, -268.31 (-1.33%)
For the Week:
Dow: -1118.06 (-2.51%)
NASDAQ: -502.76 (-2.51%)
S&P 500: -101.50 (1.66%)
NYSE Composite: -248.95 (-1.24%)
Dow Transports: -572.17 (-3.45%)
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