Given that stock prices on major indices worldwide were either in correction or bear market conditions, it seemed appropriate that stocks could suffer from seen or unforeseen shocks. Midday on Wednesday, however, an unforeseen shock sent stocks soaring in the opposite direction when Trump backed off on his retaliatory tariffs, issuing a 90-day delay in their implementation on all countries other than China.
Trump's announcement spurred an enormous upside spike and trading volume of around 30 billion shares, the highest level in history, as far as is known.
CNBC offered some sobering perspective on the record day's developments, quoting Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz’s chief economic advisor, "I think you need certainty. I think the 90 days, that’s a good period, but quickly people are going to start asking what happens next."
For his rationale on lifting the tariffs for 90 days, President Trump, always quick with a line, said, "I thought that people were jumping a little bit out of line. They were getting yippy, you know, they were getting a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid."
What "people" was Trump referencing? It sounds suspiciously like he was talking about Wall Street and other investment types, as the stock market had been tanking since he announced his tariff plans just a week prior. Maybe he was talking about people in his administration, trading partners, or the whole world. Trump's changing policies have sparked general chaos in markets, which isn't good for investors or his overall image.
Simply put, the 90-day delay on tariffs was totally bush-league, and, despite the huge gains on Wednesday, stocks are still down since he took office, though not quite so severely.
From a numbers perspective, here's how Wednesday's market advance stacks up:
The Dow's gain of 2,962.86 points was the highest all-time, though on a percentage basis, the +7.87 spike ranked only 19th historically.
It is noteworthy that three of the top four point gains on the Dow came in March and April of 2020, during the dot-com crash, as well as three of the top four losses. Additionally, the third-largest point loss on the Dow happened less than a week ago, on April 4, when the industrials fell 2,231.07 points, or 5.50% and that came on the heels of the prior day, when the Dow lost 1,679.39 points, the sixth largest loss ever.
The NASDAQ more than doubled the previous record point gain. It's 1,679.39-point rise surpassed the November 10, 2022 gain of 760.97 points. On a percentage basis, Wednesday's 12.16% rise was second to the 14.17 on January 3rd, 2001. Similar to the Dow, three of the top five point losses on the NASDAQ have occurred in just the past month. The other two are from March, 2020.
The S&P 500 gain of 9.52% tied for the 8th-highest, though the point gain of 474.13 more than doubled the 230.38 gain of March 13, 2020.
All this goes to show is that - with 2020 as a reference point - stocks will move violently in periods of uncertainty. Volatility is a two-way street. Additionally, the outsized point and volume totals demonstrate just how overvalued stocks still are, despite the major averages being down year-to-date (Dow: -4.55%; S&P: -7.22%; NASDAQ: -11.32%).
Thus, the Money Daily crash alert cannot be taken off the table, as one-day events, especially record-shattering ones, can easily be reversed in periods such as the current one.
There are also any number of suspicious stock moves. A couple of them involve companies that had issued first quarter earnings.
Delta Airlines (DAL) reported Wednesday morning, beat estimates, but withdrew its full-year financial guidance, citing increased costs due to tariffs in purchasing planes from Airbus, based in Europe. The stock was marginally higher early in the session, but ended up with a gain of 23%. Other airlines, United, American, and Southwest, also recorded big gains.
Constellation Brands (STZ), which reported Wednesday after the close, had been as high as 244 (December 9) and as low as 161 (February 12) recently. It gained 13 points on the day, about 8%, but is still trading close to its recent lows at 183 after reporting that it planned to sell off its cache of lower-priced wines and focus more on premium beers and wines.
As Thursday's open approaches, investors are guessing what will happen next. Japan's NIKKEI led Asian markets with a gain of 9.13%. Even with that, it's still down more than 14% from recent highs.
The same can be said for European stocks, all sporting gains between four and five percent, though still down 12-15% generally.
Bitcoin is down $1500 ($81,800) after soaring to erase early Wednesday losses. WTI crude oil dropped to a low of $55.40 Wednesday before bounding higher, reaching $63.09 in the market euphoria. This morning it is back to $60.51, hardly a ringing endorsement of yesterday's outpouring of love for all assets.
What has held up overnight and was up more than $100 prior to Wednesday's big bang is gold, soaring another $64 dollars this morning, to as high as $3,148. Silver tagged along, rising from $29.44 early Wednesday to as high as $31.17 this morning.
Stock futures were trending lower overnight and into the U.S. AM. Dow futures were down as much as 730 points, NASDAQ futures bottomed about 500 points lower and S&P futures were off as much as 128 points, but they had firmed up somewhat after 7:00 am.
At 8:30 am ET, March CPI was announced by the BLS:
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March, after rising 0.2 percent in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The big mover was energy, down 2.4% for the month, led by a 6.3% drop in the price of gasoline. Everything else was higher. Further:
The all items index rose 2.4 percent for the 12 months ending March, after rising 2.8 percent over the 12 months ending February. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.8 percent over the last 12 months, the smallest 12-month increase since March 2021. The energy index decreased 3.3 percent for the 12 months ending March. The food index increased 3.0 percent over the last year.
As expected, equity traders sent stock futures galloping higher, but the gains were quickly reversed, dropping back close to overnight lows. Six months from now, intrepid inflation fighters will likely be pleading with the Fed to lower rates to give producers some pricing power.
The big picture still offers more than sufficient uncertainty to move markets any which way. Trump remains unpredictable and largely in charge of the world order. After Wednesday's obscene showing, Wall Street and the President may not want to wish so hard, as they may get more than they bargain for.
Stocks are still lower from a month ago and down year-to-date. Bear markets - which is and has been the obvious primary trend since March - don't end on good news, even the biggest gains ever on record volume. There's almost certainly more downside ahead, possibly even today. Everybody knows when its time to take profits.
At the Close, Wednesday, April 9, 2025:
Dow: 40,608.45, +2,962.86 (+7.87%)
NASDAQ: 17,124.97, +1,857.06 (+12.16%)
S&P 500: 5,456.90, +474.13 (+9.52%)
NYSE Composite: 18,398.48, +1,210.02 (+7.04%)
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