Stocks in the US staged a half-hearted rally on Thursday, with virtually no news - good, bad or otherwise - to support the move, so, as they say in whispered tones, the market is trading on vapors.
Tomorrow's expected 185-195,000 January NFP may not have as much significance as previous iterations of the market's most-massaged number. There are other issues pressuring stocks that are of more importance. Also, with unemployment - according to "official" sources - very tame, only a huge beat or a huge miss could be cause for stocks to respond going into the weekend.
The money would be on "big miss," as Challenger, Gray and Christmas, the firm that monitors job layoff announcements in the US (and is a fairly reliable source), saw a 218% jump in announced job cuts in January, as employers issued more than 75,000 pink slips during the month.
Those figures aren't likely to be well-represented in the BLS figures on Friday, as the Labor Department has, over the years, garnered quite a reputation for seasonal adjustments and massive post hoc revisions, due, in the main, to the convoluted manner in which they arrive at their contrived conclusions.
In other words, the January non-farm payroll figures should be faded, no matter what they announce at 8:30 am tomorrow.
Gold and silver continued to rally strongly on Thursday, with gold crossing the $1150 rubicon and silver streaking toward $15/ounce, which, by the way, is still the bargain of the century (buy low, sell high, remember?)
Part of the reason for the metals to be heading higher is the decline in the dollar, which is down 4% on the week against competing currencies.
With the Super Bowl just a few days off, traders may tread lightly on Friday, with more interested in covering the spread then covering their clients' losses.
With the tiny uptick today, there's evidence of some level of buying interest, though it seems pretty non-committal and sparse, likely due to the fact that the Dow is still a solid 2000 points from all-time highs and those were set in May, 2015, which happens to be nine months ago.
If it looks like a bear, smells like a bear, it just could be a bear. Most people don't taunt bears. People on Wall Street may appear brave, but there's surely no shortage of stupidity.
Today's hopeful mess:
S&P 500: 1,915.45, +2.92 (0.15%)
Dow: 16,416.58, +79.92 (0.49%)
NASDAQ: 4,509.56, +5.32 (0.12%)
Crude Oil 31.68 -1.86% Gold 1,156.30 +1.31% EUR/USD 1.1215 +1.16% 10-Yr Bond 1.8640 -0.90% Corn 369.00 -0.54% Copper 2.12 +1.26% Silver 14.90 +1.16% Natural Gas 1.97 -3.14% Russell 2000 1,014.79 +0.44% VIX 21.84 +0.88% BATS 1000 20,644.48 +0.45% GBP/USD 1.4589 +0.0041% USD/JPY 116.7550 -1.09%
Showing posts with label Challenger. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Challenger. Show all posts
Thursday, February 4, 2016
Wednesday, October 5, 2011
Quiet Day as Stocks Ramp Up Further in Advance on NFP Data
It was a very quiet, lackluster session for US stocks after yesterday's flash rally in the final hour had the desired effect of cooling off the shorts and the sellers, at least for a day. There was scarcely a peep coming out of Europe, the main culprit for increased volatility in US markets, and the upside play was enhanced when ADP released its September Employment Change report, showing job gains of 91,000 over the past month, though the number was 89,000 prior to that and the official US Labor Dept. non-farm payroll survey came up with a big, fat zero, so hope for significant job gains this month will depend on how drastically federal, state and local government jobs were slashed in September. The non-farm payroll report comes out before the markets open on Friday and estimates are in a range of gains of just 30,000 to 90,000.
Another boost to confidence was applied when the ISM Services Index fell less than expected, from 53.3 in August, to an even 53 in September. Of course even though the employment picture for private employers may be exhibiting signs of renewed hope that the US economy may avoid a recession by a hair, the report from Challenger, Gray and Christmas painted a different picture, with an increase of 211.5% in mass layoffs over last year. The planned job cuts of 115,000 were the highest reported since April 2009, at the depth of the latest recession and were 126% higher than those reported in August.
Regardless, stocks marched higher throughout the day, on strong volume. This two-day rally has to be put into perspective, however, as it began as a desperate bounce off new lows, was more than likely the work of a number of insiders and scared short sellers back into hiding, though a few more days of gains might just bring them out once again.
Everything seems to be heading for the non farm payroll report on Friday, but Thursday's weekly reading of initial unemployment claims, if they continue heading lower, as they did last week, should give stocks more lift.
The oddly-quiet nature of today's trade, when combined with the incidence of solid volume sets up an interesting trading regimen for the remainder of the week. Of course, that could all be scuttled by more negative news out of Europe, which has developed the nasty habit of showing up just in time to kill numerous rallies over the past two months.
With market reactions to every bit of news, trading stocks have become about as reliable as an old fashioned craps shoot on a Bowery back alley. Real money has retreated into cash, gold, treasuries or other hard assets, where merely holding onto what one's got has become the mantra of a new, risk-averse generation of money mavens.
This current rally is nothing but flux and fluff and, like so many before it, will probably end up in tatters before long. Deflation has reared its ugly head and won't back down until Bernanke gives in and goes for another round of quantitative easing, the worst of all possible solutions.
Dow 10,939.95, +131.24 (1.21%)
NASDAQ 2,460.51, +55.69 (2.32%)
S&P 500 1,144.04, +20.09 (1.79%)
NYSE Composite 6,843.41, +120.43 (1.79%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,457,121,250
NYSE Volume 5,855,495,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4664-1866
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 18-138
WTI crude oil: 79.68, +4.01
Gold: 1640.70, +16.50
Silver: 30.43, +0.20
Another boost to confidence was applied when the ISM Services Index fell less than expected, from 53.3 in August, to an even 53 in September. Of course even though the employment picture for private employers may be exhibiting signs of renewed hope that the US economy may avoid a recession by a hair, the report from Challenger, Gray and Christmas painted a different picture, with an increase of 211.5% in mass layoffs over last year. The planned job cuts of 115,000 were the highest reported since April 2009, at the depth of the latest recession and were 126% higher than those reported in August.
Regardless, stocks marched higher throughout the day, on strong volume. This two-day rally has to be put into perspective, however, as it began as a desperate bounce off new lows, was more than likely the work of a number of insiders and scared short sellers back into hiding, though a few more days of gains might just bring them out once again.
Everything seems to be heading for the non farm payroll report on Friday, but Thursday's weekly reading of initial unemployment claims, if they continue heading lower, as they did last week, should give stocks more lift.
The oddly-quiet nature of today's trade, when combined with the incidence of solid volume sets up an interesting trading regimen for the remainder of the week. Of course, that could all be scuttled by more negative news out of Europe, which has developed the nasty habit of showing up just in time to kill numerous rallies over the past two months.
With market reactions to every bit of news, trading stocks have become about as reliable as an old fashioned craps shoot on a Bowery back alley. Real money has retreated into cash, gold, treasuries or other hard assets, where merely holding onto what one's got has become the mantra of a new, risk-averse generation of money mavens.
This current rally is nothing but flux and fluff and, like so many before it, will probably end up in tatters before long. Deflation has reared its ugly head and won't back down until Bernanke gives in and goes for another round of quantitative easing, the worst of all possible solutions.
Dow 10,939.95, +131.24 (1.21%)
NASDAQ 2,460.51, +55.69 (2.32%)
S&P 500 1,144.04, +20.09 (1.79%)
NYSE Composite 6,843.41, +120.43 (1.79%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,457,121,250
NYSE Volume 5,855,495,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4664-1866
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 18-138
WTI crude oil: 79.68, +4.01
Gold: 1640.70, +16.50
Silver: 30.43, +0.20
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