Obviously, John Thain is a hired henchman of the crime syndicate responsible for the financial meltdown of 2008, and all the associated scandals, including TARP, that were ancillary and antecedent to that event.
Why do I make such an overt claim, and just who is John Thain?
Well, John Thain has been around the Wall Street crime syndicate long enough to have attained a position of some authority within that circle. According to this article, Thain was the last chairman and chief executive officer of Merrill Lynch before its merger with Bank of America. Thain managed to get $29 per share ($50 billion) for Merrill, a 70% premium over its market price. Ken Lewis, then CEO of Bank of America, is currently under investigation by the NY State Attorney General, Andrew Cuomo.
Prior to being at Merrill, Thain was president of the NYSE, from 2004 through 2007, meaning he oversaw much of the wheeling and dealing on the exchange and also turned a blind eye to the criminal practices of Bernard Madoff. Prior to that, Thain was at Goldman Sachs, as head of the mortgage desk from 1985 to 1990, and president and co-COO from 1999 to 2004.
Given his history, it's surprising that Thain isn't Secretary of the Treasury or head of one of the regional Federal Reserves, but that's probably because John Thain is basically a bag man. He hides money for his friends. So, what better place for him to resurface after his sudden departure from Merrill Lynch (after he helped inflate its value and 11 top brokers fled to London) in January 2009, than at the beleaguered commercial lender, CIT.
Today, Thain was named CEO of CIT, apparently because CIT's bankruptcy has not worked out to full advantage for the syndicate. Thain will make sure that taxpayers are screwed some more, as one would suppose that stealing $2.3 billion, via TARP would be considered small peanuts in his circles.
With Thain at CIT, one should expect all manner of nastiness, including, but not limited to, falsified accounting, seizure of assets, pleas to the federal government for more bailout money and other not-so-niceties. If John Thain is running a company, one can only expect what he's always provided: fraud, falsity, obfuscation of facts, missing money, missing documents and generally, another round of financial panic.
You have been duly warned. With his track record or greed (he's one of the highest paid on Wall St.) and reputation (a lot of people will speak highly of him in public, because crossing him or the people he's associated with could be harmful to one's health - financial and otherwise) Thain should not be trusted. In any case, having him at CIT virtually assures that financial stocks will be hammered and the economy will suffer through a reprise of the fall of 2008.
With that as background, stocks, led by, you guessed it, large banks, generally fell, putting to rest any notion that Friday's 180-point "turnaround" was anything other than intervention by the PPT (Thain's buddies). It's been 18 months since the breakdown of finance, and since nothing's been done to fix the system - though the bankers and various federal government officials will tell you that MUCH has been done - the usual crowd is back for another round of feeding at investor and taxpayer expense.
Their greed knows no bounds. Not content with breaking the global financial system, they're committed to plunging much of the world - particularly the rich United States of America - into a financial holocaust. Naturally, none of the widespread carnage will affect any of them; they will be above the fray, sitting like vultures with cash in hand to buy up distressed assets at bargain-basement prices. Their true goal is to incite anarchy and revolt, and they're doing a nice job of it thus far. Don't think for a moment that Sarah Palin addressing the Tea Party Convention this weekend was an accident. If the American public is too squeamish to foment revolution, they've got Palin, the absolute perfect Manchurian Candidate, to push us over the edge.
Already, the Tea Parties, originally an amalgamation of loosely-aligned local groups opposed to bank bailouts and financial fraud, have devolved into right-wing bravado-fests, complete with guns, anti-government (and anti-democrat) signs and the tacit support of the the likes of Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity and FOX News.
It's a two-pronged attack on liberty and rights, using politics and money to separate middle-class people from theirs. The ultimate goal is a state of neo-anarchy and martial law in America, and they're well on their way.
Dow 9,908.39, -103.84 (1.04%)
NASDAQ 2,126.05, -15.07 (0.70%)
S&P 500 1,066.18, -0.01 (0.00%)
NYSE Composite 6,713.87, -68.88 (1.02%)
Advancing issues were trampled upon by decliners, 4120-2442. New highs actually eked out a slight edge over new lows, 86-73, but volume was light, since all the big money already exited on Friday.
NYSE Volume 4,913,621,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,059,284,875
Commodities staged a little bit of a comeback. Oil, gold and silver all finished their trading sessions slightly higher.
The repugnant conditions which prevail in America today have long ceased being casual conspiracy banter or any kind of laughing matter. Lawlessness prevails. Rules, if there are any, are made up on the fly, to suit those who seek to break them. More than just your money is at risk. Beware.
Showing posts with label Goldman Sachs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Goldman Sachs. Show all posts
Monday, February 8, 2010
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Positive GDP Growth Sends Stocks Soaring
All of the selling over the past three to four sessions based on fears that 3rd quarter GDP would come in lower than expected turned out to be dead wrong. even the high-and-mighty analysts at Goldman Sachs, who just yesterday downgraded their estimate to 2.7% growth, were well short of the true number, which came in at 3.5%, topping all but the most-optimistic estimates and sending shorts scrambling to cover and other investors cheering the solid results.
It was the first positive GDP report since in a year and the best quarter since the third quarter of 2007, when the recession actually began (though economists will tell you it was the 4th quarter of 2008, the slowdown was much earlier and was being felt in manufacturing especially. The result was the best one-day gain on the Dow Jones Industrial Average since July 23.
Perhaps more important than the nearly-200-point gain on the Dow were the levels at which the NASDAQ and S&P 500 averages closed, ahead of their 50-day moving averages, which were penetrated to the downside on Wednesday. With a solid base at those levels now intact (conceding that it must hold tomorrow), the major indices are aligned for another assault at the highs of the year, erasing all the bad karma from the meltdown of 2008.
On an even more fascinating historic note, the past two days marked the 80th anniversary of Black Monday and Black Tuesday, two of the worst performing days in the history of the stock market. On Monday, October 28, 1929, stocks fell 38.33 points (-12.82%). The Dow Jones Industrials closed that day at 260.64. The next day, Tuesday, October 29, 1929, the Industrial Average fell an additional 30.57 points (-11.73), closing at 230.07. We have come a long, long way since then, but it's intriguing that none of the financial press seemed willing to even mention the anniversary. To say that stock traders and those who report on such activity are superstitious may be putting it lightly.
Dow 9,962.58, +199.89 (2.05%)
NASDAQ 2,097.55, +37.94 (1.84%)
S&P 500 1,066.11, +23.48 (2.25%)
NYSE Composite 6,955.31, +189.62 (2.80%)
Today, thankfully, was nothing like those days of 80 years past. On this day, advancing issues solidly trounced decliners, 4934-1555. New highs rebounded to retake the upper position, beating new lows narrowly, 74-69, indicating that while we may have made a turn, the jury is still out. Stocks could actually vacillate over the next week or so, though most indications are that the rally is back on, using the solid GDP figure as a backstop.
Volume was not spectacular, but solid, in line with other days of the past two weeks.
NYSE Volume 6,477,558,500
NASDAQ Volume 2,251,900,500
What remains to be seen is where leadership is going to emerge. The 7-month-long rally has been fueled by banking, energy, technology and basic materials, correlating in inverse fashion with the dollar (which has been down precipitously and was priced lower today). At some point, the inverse correlation must come to an end, though the transition is not going to be smooth or particularly painless. Sooner or later, the regimen of easy money policy by the Fed is going to change, though that moment is likely 4-6 months in the future. For the time being, traders will look for new star stocks and other positive notes on the economy. With the holidays quickly approaching, consumer discretionary and retail stocks should receive much of the focus.
It's interesting to note the cross-over play with technology in companies such as Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN), which will likely benefit from strong sales of their leading products, the iPhone and Kindle, respectively.
Commodities also rallied as the dollar declined, snapping a week of dollar increases. Oil was up sharply, gaining $2.41, to $79.87. Gold was up $16.60, to $1,047.10. Silver gained 42 cents, to $16.66.
With no huge earnings news scheduled for Friday morning, investors will have to contend with readings on personal income and spending at 8:30 am, and a Michigan Sentiment revision at 10:00 am. That will probably be just fine with most. The market has covered a good deal of ground over the past four sessions and traders have to be just a little weary as the week draws to a close.
It was the first positive GDP report since in a year and the best quarter since the third quarter of 2007, when the recession actually began (though economists will tell you it was the 4th quarter of 2008, the slowdown was much earlier and was being felt in manufacturing especially. The result was the best one-day gain on the Dow Jones Industrial Average since July 23.
Perhaps more important than the nearly-200-point gain on the Dow were the levels at which the NASDAQ and S&P 500 averages closed, ahead of their 50-day moving averages, which were penetrated to the downside on Wednesday. With a solid base at those levels now intact (conceding that it must hold tomorrow), the major indices are aligned for another assault at the highs of the year, erasing all the bad karma from the meltdown of 2008.
On an even more fascinating historic note, the past two days marked the 80th anniversary of Black Monday and Black Tuesday, two of the worst performing days in the history of the stock market. On Monday, October 28, 1929, stocks fell 38.33 points (-12.82%). The Dow Jones Industrials closed that day at 260.64. The next day, Tuesday, October 29, 1929, the Industrial Average fell an additional 30.57 points (-11.73), closing at 230.07. We have come a long, long way since then, but it's intriguing that none of the financial press seemed willing to even mention the anniversary. To say that stock traders and those who report on such activity are superstitious may be putting it lightly.
Dow 9,962.58, +199.89 (2.05%)
NASDAQ 2,097.55, +37.94 (1.84%)
S&P 500 1,066.11, +23.48 (2.25%)
NYSE Composite 6,955.31, +189.62 (2.80%)
Today, thankfully, was nothing like those days of 80 years past. On this day, advancing issues solidly trounced decliners, 4934-1555. New highs rebounded to retake the upper position, beating new lows narrowly, 74-69, indicating that while we may have made a turn, the jury is still out. Stocks could actually vacillate over the next week or so, though most indications are that the rally is back on, using the solid GDP figure as a backstop.
Volume was not spectacular, but solid, in line with other days of the past two weeks.
NYSE Volume 6,477,558,500
NASDAQ Volume 2,251,900,500
What remains to be seen is where leadership is going to emerge. The 7-month-long rally has been fueled by banking, energy, technology and basic materials, correlating in inverse fashion with the dollar (which has been down precipitously and was priced lower today). At some point, the inverse correlation must come to an end, though the transition is not going to be smooth or particularly painless. Sooner or later, the regimen of easy money policy by the Fed is going to change, though that moment is likely 4-6 months in the future. For the time being, traders will look for new star stocks and other positive notes on the economy. With the holidays quickly approaching, consumer discretionary and retail stocks should receive much of the focus.
It's interesting to note the cross-over play with technology in companies such as Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN), which will likely benefit from strong sales of their leading products, the iPhone and Kindle, respectively.
Commodities also rallied as the dollar declined, snapping a week of dollar increases. Oil was up sharply, gaining $2.41, to $79.87. Gold was up $16.60, to $1,047.10. Silver gained 42 cents, to $16.66.
With no huge earnings news scheduled for Friday morning, investors will have to contend with readings on personal income and spending at 8:30 am, and a Michigan Sentiment revision at 10:00 am. That will probably be just fine with most. The market has covered a good deal of ground over the past four sessions and traders have to be just a little weary as the week draws to a close.
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Late Day Action Boosts Stocks; Google Soars; IBM Sours
As is often the case during earnings season, much of the real action happened after the closing bell. That was when tech bellwethers Google (GOOG) and IBM (IBM) announced third quarter earnings results. But first, a recap of the day's trading, which was, by most accounts, choppy and surprising at the end.
Stocks spent most of the day in a narrow range just below the break even line. Around 2:30 pm, the major indices managed to pop into the green and stayed there into the close, marking new 2009 highs for the major indices. These moves were in spite of the chorus of boos surrounding Goldman Sach's 3rd quarter earnings announcement before the bell, which was better than expectations, but not good enough to keep the stock from sliding throughout the session. Most of the interest was focused not on Goldman's stellar 3rd quarter, but on the bonuses being paid to executives.
The company practically owns the deal-making space, now that Bear Stearns and Lehman Bros. have departed, and they made boatloads of money - $3.19 billion, beating the estimates handily - but because of a Meredith Whitney downgrade on Tuesday (based on valuation - Goldman shares have nearly quadrupled since last November) and general dislike for the firm many believe runs the government, the banking business and most of the known universe. Like them or hate them, making 300% on your money in a year isn't hard to take. Sure, they pay their executives handsomely, but they bring in huge money for their shareholders, so the only people griping are those not smart enough to have gotten on the bandwagon.
The stock lost a whole 3 points and change on the day. I'm sure owners of the stock are really crying in their champagne.
Also before the bell was the usual horrid unemployment claims number. Another 514,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits this week. These numbers cannot be taken seriously. First, unemployment benefits are so easy to come by these days that the people claiming them probably shouldn't even be counted as seriously unemployed. All you have to do is a poor job and somebody will certainly furlough you. Additionally, according to the figures, which have been over 500,000 for more than a year, there have been at least 25 million people collecting benefits in the past 12 months. That's an enormous figure, even in bad times. What matters more is how long these people stay out of work, not how many are stepping up to the collection plate.
The number of people still collecting benefits fell below 6 million, and that number has been trending lower for months, a positive sign for the economy.
Citigroup also reported before the bell and the results were mixed. The company which received the most assistance from the feds, and is partially owned by you ,me, and our neighbors across America, hasn't done a very good job of managing our money, which came as no surprise and had little influence on the general market.
Dow 10,062.94, +47.08 (0.47%)
NASDAQ 2,173.29, +1.06 (0.05%)
S&P 500 1,096.56, +4.54 (0.42%)
NYSE Composite 7,204.05. +21.67 (0.30%)
Declining issues finished slightly ahead of advancers, 3338-3081. There were 727 new highs to just 73 new lows. Volume was in the range it's been since Tuesday. There is still a ton of money on the sidelines, missing out on the rally. This stagnant money will be great for savvy traders, because when it finally does come in, it will send a strong selling signal at a supposed market top. Smart guys and gals will be able to maximize profits upon exiting. Look for an unusually high volume number to send the signal that it's time to unload.
NYSE Volume 6,184,697,500
NASDAQ Volume 2,199,385,750
Commodities were led by oil, which gained $2.40, to $77.58. The price of oil, and its derivative, gas, is approaching a level at which it can damage the economic recovery. more money being spent on fuel means less to spend on all the other things Americans enjoy. Though there's unanimity in the chorus of oil traders that the price will go higher, I'd still not engage in that trade as it can only go so far before crimping its own demand. Many would agree that it's already too high, but, since all hatred is currently focused on bankers, the oil moguls are getting a free ride. Buy some Chevron or ExxonMobil stock if you don't like the higher prices for gas. The gains will even out, and if prices do fall, your stock will only be worth a little less. It's a zero sum trade if you play it properly.
The precious metals were hit by profit taking. Gold sold off to $1,050.60, a key inflection point, down by $14.10. Silver dipped 49 cents, to $17.42.
As for Google, the company posted its largest profit and revenue ever. That about covers the state of the internet. Technology companies are extremely healthy, with squeaky clean balance sheets. Like Google, most of the larger ones have no, or very small amounts of, debt.
IBM also beat forecasts, but revenue slipped. Big Blue is still recovering from the last year in which many of its major clients suffered or went out of business. They're doing just fine, however, having hit new 52-week highs in just the past week.
Google also posted a string of new 52-week highs in recent days. The search giant is branching out into other areas, a sign that they feel supremely confident about the economy going forward.
You should too.
Stocks spent most of the day in a narrow range just below the break even line. Around 2:30 pm, the major indices managed to pop into the green and stayed there into the close, marking new 2009 highs for the major indices. These moves were in spite of the chorus of boos surrounding Goldman Sach's 3rd quarter earnings announcement before the bell, which was better than expectations, but not good enough to keep the stock from sliding throughout the session. Most of the interest was focused not on Goldman's stellar 3rd quarter, but on the bonuses being paid to executives.
The company practically owns the deal-making space, now that Bear Stearns and Lehman Bros. have departed, and they made boatloads of money - $3.19 billion, beating the estimates handily - but because of a Meredith Whitney downgrade on Tuesday (based on valuation - Goldman shares have nearly quadrupled since last November) and general dislike for the firm many believe runs the government, the banking business and most of the known universe. Like them or hate them, making 300% on your money in a year isn't hard to take. Sure, they pay their executives handsomely, but they bring in huge money for their shareholders, so the only people griping are those not smart enough to have gotten on the bandwagon.
The stock lost a whole 3 points and change on the day. I'm sure owners of the stock are really crying in their champagne.
Also before the bell was the usual horrid unemployment claims number. Another 514,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits this week. These numbers cannot be taken seriously. First, unemployment benefits are so easy to come by these days that the people claiming them probably shouldn't even be counted as seriously unemployed. All you have to do is a poor job and somebody will certainly furlough you. Additionally, according to the figures, which have been over 500,000 for more than a year, there have been at least 25 million people collecting benefits in the past 12 months. That's an enormous figure, even in bad times. What matters more is how long these people stay out of work, not how many are stepping up to the collection plate.
The number of people still collecting benefits fell below 6 million, and that number has been trending lower for months, a positive sign for the economy.
Citigroup also reported before the bell and the results were mixed. The company which received the most assistance from the feds, and is partially owned by you ,me, and our neighbors across America, hasn't done a very good job of managing our money, which came as no surprise and had little influence on the general market.
Dow 10,062.94, +47.08 (0.47%)
NASDAQ 2,173.29, +1.06 (0.05%)
S&P 500 1,096.56, +4.54 (0.42%)
NYSE Composite 7,204.05. +21.67 (0.30%)
Declining issues finished slightly ahead of advancers, 3338-3081. There were 727 new highs to just 73 new lows. Volume was in the range it's been since Tuesday. There is still a ton of money on the sidelines, missing out on the rally. This stagnant money will be great for savvy traders, because when it finally does come in, it will send a strong selling signal at a supposed market top. Smart guys and gals will be able to maximize profits upon exiting. Look for an unusually high volume number to send the signal that it's time to unload.
NYSE Volume 6,184,697,500
NASDAQ Volume 2,199,385,750
Commodities were led by oil, which gained $2.40, to $77.58. The price of oil, and its derivative, gas, is approaching a level at which it can damage the economic recovery. more money being spent on fuel means less to spend on all the other things Americans enjoy. Though there's unanimity in the chorus of oil traders that the price will go higher, I'd still not engage in that trade as it can only go so far before crimping its own demand. Many would agree that it's already too high, but, since all hatred is currently focused on bankers, the oil moguls are getting a free ride. Buy some Chevron or ExxonMobil stock if you don't like the higher prices for gas. The gains will even out, and if prices do fall, your stock will only be worth a little less. It's a zero sum trade if you play it properly.
The precious metals were hit by profit taking. Gold sold off to $1,050.60, a key inflection point, down by $14.10. Silver dipped 49 cents, to $17.42.
As for Google, the company posted its largest profit and revenue ever. That about covers the state of the internet. Technology companies are extremely healthy, with squeaky clean balance sheets. Like Google, most of the larger ones have no, or very small amounts of, debt.
IBM also beat forecasts, but revenue slipped. Big Blue is still recovering from the last year in which many of its major clients suffered or went out of business. They're doing just fine, however, having hit new 52-week highs in just the past week.
Google also posted a string of new 52-week highs in recent days. The search giant is branching out into other areas, a sign that they feel supremely confident about the economy going forward.
You should too.
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Dow Pops 10,000
I am actually exhausted from playing today's breakout rally. I've been up since 4:00 am, so great was my anticipation of the day the Dow finally popped 10,000. Here's what you need to know:
The last time the Dow crossed and closed above 10000 was on December 11, 2003. By January 26, 2004, it had topped out at 10,702, finally peaking in October, 2007 above 14,000.
Prior to that, the Dow's first cross of 10,000 was March 26 of 1999, during the heat of the dot-com boom. After testing the level for 5 trading days, the index finally climbed above the mark on April 7. On January 16, 2000, it peaked at 11722.98.
The people telling you that Dow 10,000 is insignificant and that it has crossed over that point 26 times are misleading you, whether on purpose or through partial ignorance. Every time the Dow has pierced the 10,000 mark to the upside in the midst of a rally, it has continued higher, significantly.
Today's move was interesting in that it came with options expiration just 2 days away. This kept a lid on stocks through most of the session, frustrating all but the most savvy investors, who knew that option positions were being flipped with every uptick short of 10,000. By 3:00, the lid came off as players sat back, counted their profits and held overnight. Some of the biggest options payoffs come on the final days of trading, though recently, Wednesdays have been the most active. Nobody wants to be caught in an upside down position with no way out, so holding until the final expiration is only for the best or the worst options traders.
Noting that, Thursday and Friday may be a little light, but Monday, when new positions are being staked out, should be explosive. There are more earnings due out over the course of the next three weeks, with the next two the busiest. Knowing which stocks to play will be essential to profits.
Dow 10,015.86, +144.80 (1.47%)
NASDAQ 2,172.23, +32.34 (1.51%)
S&P 500 1,092.02, +18.83 (1.75%)
NYSE Composite 7,182.38, +150.51 (2.14%)
Today really was all about the Dow Jones Industrials, but only 25 of the 30 stocks were gainers. Home Depot (HD), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ) and Wal-Mart (WMT) were the only losers and their losses were light. There will always be laggards, but as long as there are leaders, the Dow Index is still relevant.
On the day, simple indicators expressed exactly what kind of session it was: BULLISH! Advancers clobbered declining issues, 4887-1640 (3-1). New highs were all over the place, 921 of them, the most in over two years. There were 94 new lows. Volume was average, which means that those still out of the market have not yet found the courage to get in the game. They have missed the most significant rally of a generation, but the best part is that they don't know it's not over yet. There are still plenty of success stories to be told in this rally. When the outside money comes in, it will just add fuel to the already overheated fire and probably cause a correction as profits are taken with enthusiasm. Market tops always occur when the late money or stupid money gets involved and this is no different.
NYSE Volume 6,248,702,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,383,078,250
Talk has been rampant about predictions for the end of the year. Dow 10,700 and 11,150 and S&P 1200 have been popular numbers thrown out by experienced, professional traders. Those sound like reasonable targets. All of the major indices made new 2009 and multi-month highs.
Commodities took a back seat to stocks. Oil gained $1.03, to $75.18. Gold fell 30 cents, to $1,064.70. Silver was up 7 cents, to $17.91. They were a side show, but still tradable on pullbacks.
The rally was led by a troika of grand news. Intel posted exceptional 3rd quarter numbers and even better guidance. JP Morgan Chase blew the lid off, beat the 52 cents the street was expecting by 30 cents. 82 cents per share! Then, at 8:30 am, retail sales showed improvement when the cash for clunkers was stripped out. Finally, consumer demand has emerged. Just n time for Christmas.
There are more companies reporting tomorrow, notable Goldman Sachs (GS) and Google (GOOG). They are both expected to have blockbuster results.
The importance of Dow 10,000 cannot be underestimated. everyone who works on Wall Street feels better tonight than they did this morning. All investors who are in the market are probably a little more at ease. We, after all are human, and the number is an emotional one. It just plain makes us feel good about the economy. Everyone on the planet can relate to the big, round number, especially following the events of the past year.
There are more gains ahead.
Happy trading!
The last time the Dow crossed and closed above 10000 was on December 11, 2003. By January 26, 2004, it had topped out at 10,702, finally peaking in October, 2007 above 14,000.
Prior to that, the Dow's first cross of 10,000 was March 26 of 1999, during the heat of the dot-com boom. After testing the level for 5 trading days, the index finally climbed above the mark on April 7. On January 16, 2000, it peaked at 11722.98.
The people telling you that Dow 10,000 is insignificant and that it has crossed over that point 26 times are misleading you, whether on purpose or through partial ignorance. Every time the Dow has pierced the 10,000 mark to the upside in the midst of a rally, it has continued higher, significantly.
Today's move was interesting in that it came with options expiration just 2 days away. This kept a lid on stocks through most of the session, frustrating all but the most savvy investors, who knew that option positions were being flipped with every uptick short of 10,000. By 3:00, the lid came off as players sat back, counted their profits and held overnight. Some of the biggest options payoffs come on the final days of trading, though recently, Wednesdays have been the most active. Nobody wants to be caught in an upside down position with no way out, so holding until the final expiration is only for the best or the worst options traders.
Noting that, Thursday and Friday may be a little light, but Monday, when new positions are being staked out, should be explosive. There are more earnings due out over the course of the next three weeks, with the next two the busiest. Knowing which stocks to play will be essential to profits.
Dow 10,015.86, +144.80 (1.47%)
NASDAQ 2,172.23, +32.34 (1.51%)
S&P 500 1,092.02, +18.83 (1.75%)
NYSE Composite 7,182.38, +150.51 (2.14%)
Today really was all about the Dow Jones Industrials, but only 25 of the 30 stocks were gainers. Home Depot (HD), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ) and Wal-Mart (WMT) were the only losers and their losses were light. There will always be laggards, but as long as there are leaders, the Dow Index is still relevant.
On the day, simple indicators expressed exactly what kind of session it was: BULLISH! Advancers clobbered declining issues, 4887-1640 (3-1). New highs were all over the place, 921 of them, the most in over two years. There were 94 new lows. Volume was average, which means that those still out of the market have not yet found the courage to get in the game. They have missed the most significant rally of a generation, but the best part is that they don't know it's not over yet. There are still plenty of success stories to be told in this rally. When the outside money comes in, it will just add fuel to the already overheated fire and probably cause a correction as profits are taken with enthusiasm. Market tops always occur when the late money or stupid money gets involved and this is no different.
NYSE Volume 6,248,702,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,383,078,250
Talk has been rampant about predictions for the end of the year. Dow 10,700 and 11,150 and S&P 1200 have been popular numbers thrown out by experienced, professional traders. Those sound like reasonable targets. All of the major indices made new 2009 and multi-month highs.
Commodities took a back seat to stocks. Oil gained $1.03, to $75.18. Gold fell 30 cents, to $1,064.70. Silver was up 7 cents, to $17.91. They were a side show, but still tradable on pullbacks.
The rally was led by a troika of grand news. Intel posted exceptional 3rd quarter numbers and even better guidance. JP Morgan Chase blew the lid off, beat the 52 cents the street was expecting by 30 cents. 82 cents per share! Then, at 8:30 am, retail sales showed improvement when the cash for clunkers was stripped out. Finally, consumer demand has emerged. Just n time for Christmas.
There are more companies reporting tomorrow, notable Goldman Sachs (GS) and Google (GOOG). They are both expected to have blockbuster results.
The importance of Dow 10,000 cannot be underestimated. everyone who works on Wall Street feels better tonight than they did this morning. All investors who are in the market are probably a little more at ease. We, after all are human, and the number is an emotional one. It just plain makes us feel good about the economy. Everyone on the planet can relate to the big, round number, especially following the events of the past year.
There are more gains ahead.
Happy trading!
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
It Was Another Sucker Rally
Answering the question posed on Monday, the suckers are about to be reeled in.
After Meredith Whitney singlehandedly boosted the Dow by 185 points - the best performance in 6 weeks - with her call for an ever-higher, ever-growing Goldman Sachs, Tuesday's follow-through was nothing more than a gaping, loud yawn which could be heard booming down the canyons of Wall Street all the way to the beaches at Del Mar.
Action was spotty and choppy as the indices see-sawed across the break-even line. Eventually, some brave bulls hung in until the final bell, but the sentiment was far from universal. In fact, Goldman Sachs, which reported better-than-expected earnings for the second quarter, and was up 7 points Monday, finished the day up a very modest 22 cents.
Dow 8,359.49, +27.81 (0.33%)
Nasdaq 1,799.73, +6.52 (0.36%)
S&P 500 905.84, +4.79 (0.53%)
NYSE Composite 5,805.58, +44.21 (0.77%)
Although advances were broad-based with winners getting past losers, 4054-2274, new lows retained their edge over new highs, 59-56, and volume was pretty much confined to the boys at Goldman and JP Morgan plus a few hedge funds in New Canaan, CT. Everyone else, it seems, is where they should be: on vacation.
NYSE Volume 978,933,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,890,954,000
On a happier note, Bernie Madoff began serving his 150-year prison sentence at the Butner Federal Correctional Complex, in Durham, North Carolina, today. Bernie will be in good company. The prison also houses John Rigas, the Aldephia Communications scoundrel among other tax cheats, forgers and scammers. I case you want to check on Bernie's well-being, he can be found under prison number 61727-054, at the federal prison system's web site.
Commodity traders apparently aren't sold on either recovery or recession, as prices stalled out on Tuesday. Oil fell 17 cents, to $59.52, gold gained 30 cents, to $922.80, while silver tacked on 7 cents, to $12.86. Most other commodities were traded within small ranges.
The Bureau of Labor statistics released the Producer Price Index for June, showing a 1.8% seasonally-adjusted gain over May, which is a little bit misleading since the finished goods prices declined 4.6% over the past year. While the 1.6% gain in one month may be alarming to some, most of the veterans on Wall Street realize we're in a bit of deflation, so the number didn't engender more "inflation" talk.
After the close, Yum Brands (YUM) and Intel (INTC) both issued 2nd quarter results that beat the street. The rally could have been merely taking a breather, though investors may also be getting pickier with earnings increases slim.
After Meredith Whitney singlehandedly boosted the Dow by 185 points - the best performance in 6 weeks - with her call for an ever-higher, ever-growing Goldman Sachs, Tuesday's follow-through was nothing more than a gaping, loud yawn which could be heard booming down the canyons of Wall Street all the way to the beaches at Del Mar.
Action was spotty and choppy as the indices see-sawed across the break-even line. Eventually, some brave bulls hung in until the final bell, but the sentiment was far from universal. In fact, Goldman Sachs, which reported better-than-expected earnings for the second quarter, and was up 7 points Monday, finished the day up a very modest 22 cents.
Dow 8,359.49, +27.81 (0.33%)
Nasdaq 1,799.73, +6.52 (0.36%)
S&P 500 905.84, +4.79 (0.53%)
NYSE Composite 5,805.58, +44.21 (0.77%)
Although advances were broad-based with winners getting past losers, 4054-2274, new lows retained their edge over new highs, 59-56, and volume was pretty much confined to the boys at Goldman and JP Morgan plus a few hedge funds in New Canaan, CT. Everyone else, it seems, is where they should be: on vacation.
NYSE Volume 978,933,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,890,954,000
On a happier note, Bernie Madoff began serving his 150-year prison sentence at the Butner Federal Correctional Complex, in Durham, North Carolina, today. Bernie will be in good company. The prison also houses John Rigas, the Aldephia Communications scoundrel among other tax cheats, forgers and scammers. I case you want to check on Bernie's well-being, he can be found under prison number 61727-054, at the federal prison system's web site.
Commodity traders apparently aren't sold on either recovery or recession, as prices stalled out on Tuesday. Oil fell 17 cents, to $59.52, gold gained 30 cents, to $922.80, while silver tacked on 7 cents, to $12.86. Most other commodities were traded within small ranges.
The Bureau of Labor statistics released the Producer Price Index for June, showing a 1.8% seasonally-adjusted gain over May, which is a little bit misleading since the finished goods prices declined 4.6% over the past year. While the 1.6% gain in one month may be alarming to some, most of the veterans on Wall Street realize we're in a bit of deflation, so the number didn't engender more "inflation" talk.
After the close, Yum Brands (YUM) and Intel (INTC) both issued 2nd quarter results that beat the street. The rally could have been merely taking a breather, though investors may also be getting pickier with earnings increases slim.
Monday, July 13, 2009
Financials Fun or Another Sucker Rally?
With 2nd quarter earnings about to begin rolling out tomorrow, Monday's movement in the markets was something to ponder befor possibly jumping into the breach. Leading the way were financials, the very same banks that caused huge financial failures less than a year ago.
Are the banks fully rejuvenated? Can they be trusted as guardians of important capital - for mortgages, college, retirement, etc. - or have investors forgotten so soon how cavalier these same bankers were with other people's money. Sadly, I am of the camp that says they cannot be trusted. Every time financial stocks lead rallies, I see the same fraudulent faces, the same lying CEOs, none of whom have been rightfully indicted, prosecuted and jailed for their various crimes: collusion, delusion, evasion and deceit.
After falling for four straight weeks, maybe the market was prime for gains, but one must bear in mind where we are in the greater cycle. Stocks are just coming off highs, and, with the economy still struggling, one has to question the wisdom of jumping in at this particular juncture. Maybe for short term profits, this is the right move, but longer term, stocks could easily become cheaper in months ahead. If this is a short term timing rally and an in-and-out play, which is predominantly what our markets have become, this may be worthwhile, but waiting until the first few days' worth of earnings results come to the fore seems to be a more prudent position.
In any case, stocks were brought higher by the banks, which lifted every sector by at least 1%.
Dow 8,331.68, +185.16 (2.27%)
NASDAQ 1,793.21, +37.18 (2.12%)
S&P 500 901.05, +21.92 (2.49%)
NYSE Composite 5,761.37, +133.85 (2.38%)
The movement was broad based, with advancing issues beating out decliners, 4980-1400. New lows, however, maintained their edge over new highs, 79-40. Volume was nothing about which to get excited, another indication that not all hands are on board with this move. Weak volume has been an consistent feature marking the end of the rally and the beginning of the correction four weeks ago.
NYSE Volume 1,189,460,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,921,335,000
Commodities were all over the map. Those in the energy-related sector followed oil's downward draft of 20 cents, closing at $59.69. The metals were all up, with gold higher by $10.00, to $922.50, and silver up 14 cents, to $12.79. Livestock and foodstuffs finished in mixed fashion.
Banks will be in focus the rest of this week as a number of big names announce earnings. Goldman Sachs, a particularly important bellwether, reports tomorrow.
Are the banks fully rejuvenated? Can they be trusted as guardians of important capital - for mortgages, college, retirement, etc. - or have investors forgotten so soon how cavalier these same bankers were with other people's money. Sadly, I am of the camp that says they cannot be trusted. Every time financial stocks lead rallies, I see the same fraudulent faces, the same lying CEOs, none of whom have been rightfully indicted, prosecuted and jailed for their various crimes: collusion, delusion, evasion and deceit.
After falling for four straight weeks, maybe the market was prime for gains, but one must bear in mind where we are in the greater cycle. Stocks are just coming off highs, and, with the economy still struggling, one has to question the wisdom of jumping in at this particular juncture. Maybe for short term profits, this is the right move, but longer term, stocks could easily become cheaper in months ahead. If this is a short term timing rally and an in-and-out play, which is predominantly what our markets have become, this may be worthwhile, but waiting until the first few days' worth of earnings results come to the fore seems to be a more prudent position.
In any case, stocks were brought higher by the banks, which lifted every sector by at least 1%.
Dow 8,331.68, +185.16 (2.27%)
NASDAQ 1,793.21, +37.18 (2.12%)
S&P 500 901.05, +21.92 (2.49%)
NYSE Composite 5,761.37, +133.85 (2.38%)
The movement was broad based, with advancing issues beating out decliners, 4980-1400. New lows, however, maintained their edge over new highs, 79-40. Volume was nothing about which to get excited, another indication that not all hands are on board with this move. Weak volume has been an consistent feature marking the end of the rally and the beginning of the correction four weeks ago.
NYSE Volume 1,189,460,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,921,335,000
Commodities were all over the map. Those in the energy-related sector followed oil's downward draft of 20 cents, closing at $59.69. The metals were all up, with gold higher by $10.00, to $922.50, and silver up 14 cents, to $12.79. Livestock and foodstuffs finished in mixed fashion.
Banks will be in focus the rest of this week as a number of big names announce earnings. Goldman Sachs, a particularly important bellwether, reports tomorrow.
Friday, May 29, 2009
Bad Is Good, Less is More, Failure is Success
My Orwellian title for today's post stems from a belief that our national economy has gone fully bust, bankrupted by policies which favored financial manipulation and "wealth creation" over actual financial profit in a more traditional sense: by labor, production and industry.
The US economy is on its death bed. Actually, it has been lying there on life support for nearly two years now, since the initial failure of two obscure Bear Stearns hedge funds sent shock waves through the world financial system. (I should note, without any pleasure, that the US financial system is locked into the larger, global system to some degree, though far less than 100%, so that when the US fails, other countries will also take a hit, some more than others.)
Since that time in July of 2007, when Bears' High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Enhanced Leverage Fund and High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Fund imploded, leaving investors with nothing and freezing credit markets worldwide, the US economy has suffered its worst decline since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Rescue efforts by former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, current Secretary Tim Geithner and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke have succeeded only in stopping the bleeding temporarily. These doctors of finance have yet to address the real cause of the malady: the toxic assets in collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), credit default swaps (CDS) without sufficient capital to underwrite them and various frauds in commercial banking from the "miracle" fractional reserves" to interest rate manipulation.
Worse yet, these government pretenders have been completely bought off by the criminal syndicate at the root of the financial crisis: the largest banks and brokerages populating the canyons of Wall Street, headed by Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and, of course, AIG.
These companies are essentially insolvent and bankrupt, brought down by the very derivative trading by which they enriched themselves for many years. The same securitization markets which underpinned - and eventually undercut - the US financial system remains in place, and, in an odd bit of alchemy, the surgeons are attempting to revive the patient by administering an unhealthy dose of the same medicine while felled it: more debt, more credit, more exotic, intractable, indiscernible financial instruments. With this kind of financial witchcraft at hand, the actual death of the US financial system will come in due course, most likely within the next two to three years, if not by the end of this one.
It was reported yesterday that 12% of all mortgages nationally were in some stage of trouble in the first quarter, either in foreclosure or past due by at least one payment, a record high. Unemployment is largely cited at 9%, though the real figure is likely closer to 12 or 15% when people who have exhausted their unemployment insurance are included in the calculations.
These numbers point out that the economy - despite mainstream media's contentions - is continuing to contract, decline, or, to put it into realistically stark terms: fail. Look up and down your street and there's probably one or more homes in which the occupants either have recently lost their job or have fallen behind on mortgage payments. And those numbers are more likely going to increase over the next 6, 12, 18 months. At some point - and remember, these people are also not going to be paying income and property taxes any time soon - you have to face reality. Am I going to be the only person on this block paying my mortgage and taxes? And why should I when the government is bailing out those who cannot meet their obligations with borrowed tax dollars?
Which brings us to the Orwellian part of this discussion: the sooner everybody defaults on either mortgage or tax obligations, the sooner the corrupt bankers and politicians can be uprooted, disposed of, dethroned, defrocked and demolished and a new economy can supplant the bad one. We are getting closer to that reality daily. When unemployment reaches beyond 20% and foreclosures are running at a rate similar, we'll be on our way to destruction, resolution and resurrection.
Regular people outnumber politicians and bankers in this country by a level of probably 1000-1. Surely we can muster the will to put an end to their borrow-tax-spend-lend tyranny? Or can we? Bad, defaulting on your mortgage, is good. Less, as in debt, is more, as in freedom. Failure of the financial system as currently structured will result in Success of the American experience.
The stock market today did what the economy has been doing for the past year: nothing... at least until 3:30, that is. Now, the fraud and deceit of such blatant manipulation can be seen first-hand. Stocks vacillated along the unchanged mark all day long until the final half hour of trading. Did everyone suddenly find reason to buy stocks with both hands shortly before the weekend commenced? Or did insiders decide it would be practical to end the week on a high note, knowing that the insipid media would carry only the final numbers and ignore the fact that ALL OF THE GAINS WERE IN THE FINAL HALF HOUR OF TRADING? The major dealers who did all this buying will no doubt be unloading the very same shares early next week to unsuspecting, sheep-like, retail investors.
You be the judge. Our economy is dying, if not already dead. Wall Street is an absolute Ponzi scheme on steroids, boosted by the bankers and winked at by government regulators and politicians. Until these scoundrels are unearthed, tried and imprisoned, we are their slaves.
Dow 8,500.33, +96.53 (1.15%)
NASDAQ 1,774.33, +22.54 (1.29%)
S&P 500 919.14, +12.31 (1.36%)
NYSE Composite 6,004.07, +87.01 (1.47%)
On the day, advancers beat decliners by an obvious margin, 3652-1837, though new lows maintained their advantage over new highs, 84-77. As close as that margin has gotten this week, it has yet to roll over, and, unless there is some kind of miracle cure for the economy - as GM heads to bankruptcy - it won't. Volume was slightly higher than the depressed levels which predominated the week, though that alone is without meaning.
NYSE Volume 1,854,219,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,524,330,000
The commodity rally continued apace, with oil shooting up another $1.23, to $66.31; gold rising $17.10, to $980.30, and silver gaining 45 cents, to $15.61.
Everything's going up, which really shouldn't happen in a balanced economy, but it is. George Orwell, wherever he is finally resting, is having a good laugh at our expense.
The US economy is on its death bed. Actually, it has been lying there on life support for nearly two years now, since the initial failure of two obscure Bear Stearns hedge funds sent shock waves through the world financial system. (I should note, without any pleasure, that the US financial system is locked into the larger, global system to some degree, though far less than 100%, so that when the US fails, other countries will also take a hit, some more than others.)
Since that time in July of 2007, when Bears' High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Enhanced Leverage Fund and High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Fund imploded, leaving investors with nothing and freezing credit markets worldwide, the US economy has suffered its worst decline since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Rescue efforts by former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, current Secretary Tim Geithner and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke have succeeded only in stopping the bleeding temporarily. These doctors of finance have yet to address the real cause of the malady: the toxic assets in collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), credit default swaps (CDS) without sufficient capital to underwrite them and various frauds in commercial banking from the "miracle" fractional reserves" to interest rate manipulation.
Worse yet, these government pretenders have been completely bought off by the criminal syndicate at the root of the financial crisis: the largest banks and brokerages populating the canyons of Wall Street, headed by Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and, of course, AIG.
These companies are essentially insolvent and bankrupt, brought down by the very derivative trading by which they enriched themselves for many years. The same securitization markets which underpinned - and eventually undercut - the US financial system remains in place, and, in an odd bit of alchemy, the surgeons are attempting to revive the patient by administering an unhealthy dose of the same medicine while felled it: more debt, more credit, more exotic, intractable, indiscernible financial instruments. With this kind of financial witchcraft at hand, the actual death of the US financial system will come in due course, most likely within the next two to three years, if not by the end of this one.
It was reported yesterday that 12% of all mortgages nationally were in some stage of trouble in the first quarter, either in foreclosure or past due by at least one payment, a record high. Unemployment is largely cited at 9%, though the real figure is likely closer to 12 or 15% when people who have exhausted their unemployment insurance are included in the calculations.
These numbers point out that the economy - despite mainstream media's contentions - is continuing to contract, decline, or, to put it into realistically stark terms: fail. Look up and down your street and there's probably one or more homes in which the occupants either have recently lost their job or have fallen behind on mortgage payments. And those numbers are more likely going to increase over the next 6, 12, 18 months. At some point - and remember, these people are also not going to be paying income and property taxes any time soon - you have to face reality. Am I going to be the only person on this block paying my mortgage and taxes? And why should I when the government is bailing out those who cannot meet their obligations with borrowed tax dollars?
Which brings us to the Orwellian part of this discussion: the sooner everybody defaults on either mortgage or tax obligations, the sooner the corrupt bankers and politicians can be uprooted, disposed of, dethroned, defrocked and demolished and a new economy can supplant the bad one. We are getting closer to that reality daily. When unemployment reaches beyond 20% and foreclosures are running at a rate similar, we'll be on our way to destruction, resolution and resurrection.
Regular people outnumber politicians and bankers in this country by a level of probably 1000-1. Surely we can muster the will to put an end to their borrow-tax-spend-lend tyranny? Or can we? Bad, defaulting on your mortgage, is good. Less, as in debt, is more, as in freedom. Failure of the financial system as currently structured will result in Success of the American experience.
The stock market today did what the economy has been doing for the past year: nothing... at least until 3:30, that is. Now, the fraud and deceit of such blatant manipulation can be seen first-hand. Stocks vacillated along the unchanged mark all day long until the final half hour of trading. Did everyone suddenly find reason to buy stocks with both hands shortly before the weekend commenced? Or did insiders decide it would be practical to end the week on a high note, knowing that the insipid media would carry only the final numbers and ignore the fact that ALL OF THE GAINS WERE IN THE FINAL HALF HOUR OF TRADING? The major dealers who did all this buying will no doubt be unloading the very same shares early next week to unsuspecting, sheep-like, retail investors.
You be the judge. Our economy is dying, if not already dead. Wall Street is an absolute Ponzi scheme on steroids, boosted by the bankers and winked at by government regulators and politicians. Until these scoundrels are unearthed, tried and imprisoned, we are their slaves.
Dow 8,500.33, +96.53 (1.15%)
NASDAQ 1,774.33, +22.54 (1.29%)
S&P 500 919.14, +12.31 (1.36%)
NYSE Composite 6,004.07, +87.01 (1.47%)
On the day, advancers beat decliners by an obvious margin, 3652-1837, though new lows maintained their advantage over new highs, 84-77. As close as that margin has gotten this week, it has yet to roll over, and, unless there is some kind of miracle cure for the economy - as GM heads to bankruptcy - it won't. Volume was slightly higher than the depressed levels which predominated the week, though that alone is without meaning.
NYSE Volume 1,854,219,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,524,330,000
The commodity rally continued apace, with oil shooting up another $1.23, to $66.31; gold rising $17.10, to $980.30, and silver gaining 45 cents, to $15.61.
Everything's going up, which really shouldn't happen in a balanced economy, but it is. George Orwell, wherever he is finally resting, is having a good laugh at our expense.
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
No Stopping the Industrial Giants
The stock markets are rigged. There, I said it. somebody mentioned that Goldman Sachs handles 20% of all the trades on the NYSE and NASDAQ exchanges. I tend to believe that, especially considering how one-sided the markets have become over the past two months.
It's a one-way bet, just like it was during the post-9/11 era, or, actually, as soon as the Iraq war began. Everything just keeps going up.
Now, I have nothing against profitable trading, I just think profits should be made by investing in companies with good fundamentals, growing earnings, dividends, things like that. The biggest leaders of the recent climb have been banks, many of which were on the brink of failure just a few months back, and were saved by infusions of cash from taxpayers.
That's not what I call sustainable or sound business. Eventually, I will be found to have been right all along. It will become apparent that Citigroup and Bank of America are insolvent. That JP Morgan has too much derivative exposure that they don't like to talk about, and that Goldman Sachs does manipulate the market at the behest of the Federal Reserve, itself a chimera of an organization, one which creates currency out of thin air. How can that be a viable business?
Others agree with me that the "dead cat bounce" has been overdone. Here's one.
Then there's talk of Social Security and Medicare going belly-up before they're supposed to. Well, even the idea that they are going to go broke should be cause enough to reform or dispose of these awful entitlements which are bankrupting the country, turning productive people and resources into wards of the state and, though they provide capital into the system, are nothing more than the manifestation of the worst form of the welfare state.
Dow 8,469.11, +50.34 (0.60%)
NASDAQ 1,715.92, -15.32 (0.88%)
S&P 500 908.35, -0.89 (0.10%)
NYSE Composite 5,859.14, +9.84 (0.17%)
Yesterday, I was reporting how the NASDAQ stocks fared much better than their counterpart indices. Today the opposite is the case, with Dow stocks leading the way. So, which is it? Old, stodgy industrials or new-age tech companies at which we should be throwing our money? Neither is likely the case. Gold or silver will outperform them both, as they have for the past five years.
Just to confuse matters further on one of the more confounding sessions of late, declining issues dominated advancers, 3885-2650. New lows: 73; New highs: 38. Volume was light.
NYSE Volume 1,611,161,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,529,090,000
The government continues to borrow and spend at a record-shattering pace. Americans will be paying through their eyeteeth until their dying breath just for the money being wasted trying to prevent the economy falling into an orderly and well-deserved depression. All they're doing is delaying the inevitable and making matters worse. The luckiest people on the planet today are those who know they don't have long to live. They won't be around to witness or deal with the devastation.
Crude oil was up another 35 cents, to $58.69, but gold gained more, rising $10.40, to $923.90. Silver shot up another 31 cents, to $14.22. They're probably all overpriced, but especially oil. When PPI and CPI figures are released later this week, there's likely to be some pull-back in all commodity prices. The economy is still just puttering along at a snail's pace. Growth is more than 9 months away.
Bonds were unmoved and the dollar was descending last we noticed.
It's a one-way bet, just like it was during the post-9/11 era, or, actually, as soon as the Iraq war began. Everything just keeps going up.
Now, I have nothing against profitable trading, I just think profits should be made by investing in companies with good fundamentals, growing earnings, dividends, things like that. The biggest leaders of the recent climb have been banks, many of which were on the brink of failure just a few months back, and were saved by infusions of cash from taxpayers.
That's not what I call sustainable or sound business. Eventually, I will be found to have been right all along. It will become apparent that Citigroup and Bank of America are insolvent. That JP Morgan has too much derivative exposure that they don't like to talk about, and that Goldman Sachs does manipulate the market at the behest of the Federal Reserve, itself a chimera of an organization, one which creates currency out of thin air. How can that be a viable business?
Others agree with me that the "dead cat bounce" has been overdone. Here's one.
Then there's talk of Social Security and Medicare going belly-up before they're supposed to. Well, even the idea that they are going to go broke should be cause enough to reform or dispose of these awful entitlements which are bankrupting the country, turning productive people and resources into wards of the state and, though they provide capital into the system, are nothing more than the manifestation of the worst form of the welfare state.
Dow 8,469.11, +50.34 (0.60%)
NASDAQ 1,715.92, -15.32 (0.88%)
S&P 500 908.35, -0.89 (0.10%)
NYSE Composite 5,859.14, +9.84 (0.17%)
Yesterday, I was reporting how the NASDAQ stocks fared much better than their counterpart indices. Today the opposite is the case, with Dow stocks leading the way. So, which is it? Old, stodgy industrials or new-age tech companies at which we should be throwing our money? Neither is likely the case. Gold or silver will outperform them both, as they have for the past five years.
Just to confuse matters further on one of the more confounding sessions of late, declining issues dominated advancers, 3885-2650. New lows: 73; New highs: 38. Volume was light.
NYSE Volume 1,611,161,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,529,090,000
The government continues to borrow and spend at a record-shattering pace. Americans will be paying through their eyeteeth until their dying breath just for the money being wasted trying to prevent the economy falling into an orderly and well-deserved depression. All they're doing is delaying the inevitable and making matters worse. The luckiest people on the planet today are those who know they don't have long to live. They won't be around to witness or deal with the devastation.
Crude oil was up another 35 cents, to $58.69, but gold gained more, rising $10.40, to $923.90. Silver shot up another 31 cents, to $14.22. They're probably all overpriced, but especially oil. When PPI and CPI figures are released later this week, there's likely to be some pull-back in all commodity prices. The economy is still just puttering along at a snail's pace. Growth is more than 9 months away.
Bonds were unmoved and the dollar was descending last we noticed.
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Earnings Season: Churn, Churn, Churn
Speaking to a fellow trader earlier today, I mentioned that I thought the overriding tone of trading during this earnings season would be that of selling upon announcement of earnings. To clarify, most stocks with any kind of momentum will gain prior to their earnings release date, and upon the announcement, traders would quickly scoop up profits, causing most stocks to fall.
In response, my friend said, "then you expect stocks to go down over the next few weeks."
I replied, "no, because while some stocks will be going down, others will be bid up in advance of earnings. I expect the market to go sideways."
Therein lies the rub. This is the classic trader's market, wherein quick reflexes and astute chart-monitoring will result in healthy gains for those who are eager to lock in profits. In a general sense, stocks are already somewhat overbought, though there could still be more to this rally, even though it may take weeks for it to make another forward move. The most likely outcome is that stocks will end up generally right where they are now, somewhere between (on the Dow) 7700 and 8100. The 8100 level has yet to be cracked, but there is plenty of room on the upside - all the way to 9000 - before violating the primary bearish trend.
Less seasoned investors will see any rally past 8200-8300 as signs of a new bull, but they will be sadly mistaken. The Dow in particular has plenty of room to roam before breaking into bullish ground, and the chances of that are, at this time, slim to none. Most analysts of any quality are now calling for recovery in the year 2010, so even a presaging move by the markets before July would be premature and likely to be killed off by a combination of profit-taking and outright selling.
There's almost surely to be another round of terror in the markets, caused by anything from a large company reporting truly ugly results, another nightmare from the banking sector, bad housing (or commercial property) news, more unemployment, and so on. There is truly no limit to the scenarios within which the Dow and associated markets could take another dive below 7000, the S&P back into the 750 range and so forth. Getting through April will look like a picnic in retrospect by the time June rolls around. There is still widespread uncertainty concerning everything from the government's budget deficits to bank solvency to a GM bankruptcy. Anything can happen, and it probably will.
The case today was cynical, on the whole. After Goldman Sachs (GS) announced their "outstanding" earnings a day early, the company came back with a stock offering at 123, sending shares lower at the open. It was something of an outlier and partially designed to cover the great deceit which GS played on investors. Their 1st quarter earnings covered the period of January through March, but since GS ad changed their accounting periods when they changed their designation from an investment bank to a commercial bank, they managed to leave out their $1 billion loss from December, 2008.
Seriously, it was just never reported, which is something of a first, and an evil ploy to hoodwink not only investors, but the financial media as well, who did little to uncover the fact.
In any case, Goldman set the tone out of the gate, sending the major indices out in the red, a place in which they remain until the closing bell.
Dow 7,920.18, -137.63 (1.71%)
NASDAQ 1,625.72, -27.59 (1.67%)
S&P 500 841.50, -17.23 (2.01%)
NYSE Composite 5,301.50, -108.78 (2.01%)
On the day, declining issues ran well ahead of advancing ones, 4403-2102. New lows remained in the dominant position over new highs, 76-19. Volume was better than it has been in days, owing to options expiration on Friday and a willingness, seemingly, to take profits in all quarters.
NYSE Volume 1,749,256,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,267,111,000
Over in the commodities arena, oil drooped 64 cents, hitting $49.41 at the close, the first close below $50 in over a week. Gold fell $3.80, to $892.00. Silver finished unchanged, at $12.77.
For all the excitement in the markets, it was a fairly quiet session, as stocks, once they bottomed out around the noon hour, traded in a fairly tight regimen the rest of the day. also weighing on investors were lower retail sales figures for March (-1.1%), and a sharp decline in the PPI, off 1.2% in March. Both readings were said - by the supine financial press - to be surprising, though one wonders just who was surprised that spending and prices were both dropping. It seemed to be not so much of a shock, but merely more evidence that the recession is deeper and longer than most people would like.
Speaking on the economy, both President Obama and Fed Chair Ben Bernanke, voiced concerns that while there have been signs of hope, the economic forces at work were nowhere near done doing their dirty work on the US economy. As per usual, both politicians spoke from both sides of their mouths simultaneously. One could take the entire volume of their words and just chuck it all in a waste bin, as all they do is mouth the same garbage all the time. Their speeches, and those of Treasury's Tim Geithner, are about as meaningful as seeing flowers bloom in Spring. Nothing new comes from anybody involved in the various government bailouts, rescues and assorted alphabet soup plots and plans, as they are mostly designed to cover up the most obvious bank insolvencies (B of A, Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase) and will more than likely do more harm than good.
Of the few bright spots was Dow component, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), which reported earnings which were 0.04 ahead of Street expectations, at $1.26 per share. Other than that, of the 30 Dow components, only Citigroup (C), Intel (INTC) and General Motors (GM) finished the day with gains.
Don't look for any loud corporate noises on Wednesday, as there are no influential companies reporting. On Thursday, Biogen Idec Inc. (BIIB), Google (GOOG), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Nokia (NOK) will add a degree of interest as they report 1st quarter results.
In response, my friend said, "then you expect stocks to go down over the next few weeks."
I replied, "no, because while some stocks will be going down, others will be bid up in advance of earnings. I expect the market to go sideways."
Therein lies the rub. This is the classic trader's market, wherein quick reflexes and astute chart-monitoring will result in healthy gains for those who are eager to lock in profits. In a general sense, stocks are already somewhat overbought, though there could still be more to this rally, even though it may take weeks for it to make another forward move. The most likely outcome is that stocks will end up generally right where they are now, somewhere between (on the Dow) 7700 and 8100. The 8100 level has yet to be cracked, but there is plenty of room on the upside - all the way to 9000 - before violating the primary bearish trend.
Less seasoned investors will see any rally past 8200-8300 as signs of a new bull, but they will be sadly mistaken. The Dow in particular has plenty of room to roam before breaking into bullish ground, and the chances of that are, at this time, slim to none. Most analysts of any quality are now calling for recovery in the year 2010, so even a presaging move by the markets before July would be premature and likely to be killed off by a combination of profit-taking and outright selling.
There's almost surely to be another round of terror in the markets, caused by anything from a large company reporting truly ugly results, another nightmare from the banking sector, bad housing (or commercial property) news, more unemployment, and so on. There is truly no limit to the scenarios within which the Dow and associated markets could take another dive below 7000, the S&P back into the 750 range and so forth. Getting through April will look like a picnic in retrospect by the time June rolls around. There is still widespread uncertainty concerning everything from the government's budget deficits to bank solvency to a GM bankruptcy. Anything can happen, and it probably will.
The case today was cynical, on the whole. After Goldman Sachs (GS) announced their "outstanding" earnings a day early, the company came back with a stock offering at 123, sending shares lower at the open. It was something of an outlier and partially designed to cover the great deceit which GS played on investors. Their 1st quarter earnings covered the period of January through March, but since GS ad changed their accounting periods when they changed their designation from an investment bank to a commercial bank, they managed to leave out their $1 billion loss from December, 2008.
Seriously, it was just never reported, which is something of a first, and an evil ploy to hoodwink not only investors, but the financial media as well, who did little to uncover the fact.
In any case, Goldman set the tone out of the gate, sending the major indices out in the red, a place in which they remain until the closing bell.
Dow 7,920.18, -137.63 (1.71%)
NASDAQ 1,625.72, -27.59 (1.67%)
S&P 500 841.50, -17.23 (2.01%)
NYSE Composite 5,301.50, -108.78 (2.01%)
On the day, declining issues ran well ahead of advancing ones, 4403-2102. New lows remained in the dominant position over new highs, 76-19. Volume was better than it has been in days, owing to options expiration on Friday and a willingness, seemingly, to take profits in all quarters.
NYSE Volume 1,749,256,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,267,111,000
Over in the commodities arena, oil drooped 64 cents, hitting $49.41 at the close, the first close below $50 in over a week. Gold fell $3.80, to $892.00. Silver finished unchanged, at $12.77.
For all the excitement in the markets, it was a fairly quiet session, as stocks, once they bottomed out around the noon hour, traded in a fairly tight regimen the rest of the day. also weighing on investors were lower retail sales figures for March (-1.1%), and a sharp decline in the PPI, off 1.2% in March. Both readings were said - by the supine financial press - to be surprising, though one wonders just who was surprised that spending and prices were both dropping. It seemed to be not so much of a shock, but merely more evidence that the recession is deeper and longer than most people would like.
Speaking on the economy, both President Obama and Fed Chair Ben Bernanke, voiced concerns that while there have been signs of hope, the economic forces at work were nowhere near done doing their dirty work on the US economy. As per usual, both politicians spoke from both sides of their mouths simultaneously. One could take the entire volume of their words and just chuck it all in a waste bin, as all they do is mouth the same garbage all the time. Their speeches, and those of Treasury's Tim Geithner, are about as meaningful as seeing flowers bloom in Spring. Nothing new comes from anybody involved in the various government bailouts, rescues and assorted alphabet soup plots and plans, as they are mostly designed to cover up the most obvious bank insolvencies (B of A, Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase) and will more than likely do more harm than good.
Of the few bright spots was Dow component, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), which reported earnings which were 0.04 ahead of Street expectations, at $1.26 per share. Other than that, of the 30 Dow components, only Citigroup (C), Intel (INTC) and General Motors (GM) finished the day with gains.
Don't look for any loud corporate noises on Wednesday, as there are no influential companies reporting. On Thursday, Biogen Idec Inc. (BIIB), Google (GOOG), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Nokia (NOK) will add a degree of interest as they report 1st quarter results.
Monday, April 13, 2009
Investors Play Waiting Game in Advance of Earnings
On the heels of a long holiday weekend, investors were met with a troubling scenario on Monday, as there was hardly a headline upon which to base trading. As such, stocks took an immediate dive to the negative at the opening bell and stayed down until momentum traders brought the major indices back to positive bearings after the noon hour. The Dow lagged the S&P and NYSE Composite, with the NASDAQ making a sharp turn at midday and closing close to unchanged.
Overall, there was little movement in anticipation of major earnings announcements which begin this week and will be the focus of trading through the end of the month. Of course, following the key Wells Fargo pre-announcement from Thursday, there's a good deal of excitement and anxiety building over first quarter earnings from major banks. The schedule for bank earnings goes as follows: Goldman Sachs (GS) on April 14, JP Morgan Chase (JPM) on April 16, Citigroup (C) on April 17, Bank of America (BAC) on April 20 and Wells Fargo (WFC) on April 22.
It is notable that Wells Fargo is the last to report, as their actual announcement will more than likely result in a sell-off, the company already having jumped the shark by leaking out their earnings news. The balance of this week, however, will be dominated by the three big banks reporting and it should be quite a show.
Dow 8,057.81, -25.57 (0.32%)
NASDAQ 1,653.31, +0.77 (0.05%)
S&P 500 858.73, +2.17 (0.25%)
NYSE Composite 5,410.28, +33.84 (0.63%)
As for today, it was just a low-volume grind in a fairly tight range. For the time being, volatility has been wrung out of the markets if only because stocks have once again topped out. The next move, whether to the upside or down, will be decisive though earnings reports from various companies over time could contribute to wide swings.
Advancing issues were 4644, to 2855 declining. New lows beat down new highs, 93-31, with the margin increasing again. Volume was on the low side.
NYSE Volume 1,481,100,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,832,720,000
What the market was waiting all day for - Talbot's earnings for the 4th quarter and full year of 2008 - finally appeared online after the close. If the market is seeking direction, take note: The company, trading under the symbol TLB, reported a 4th quarter adjusted net loss (period ended January 31, 2009) of $128.4 million or $2.40 per share compared to last year’s adjusted net loss of $7.1 million or $0.13 per share.
Talbot's operates more than 1000 retail apparel stores in the US, UK and Canada, so all this does is re-confirm that the retail sector is in deep trouble. Shares were down nearly 20% in after-hours trading.
Well, that's what we thought the market was awaiting. Instead, Goldman Sachs decided to report a day earlier, posting earnings of $3.39 per share, beating forecasts of $1.64 per share. Expect stocks to gap up at the open tomorrow on that surprise.
What is troubling about Goldman Sachs' earnings is that since changing their designation from an investment bank to a commercial bank, they also changed their reporting periods, which can be seen plainly in this report. [PDF]
The problem is that the company seems to have completely eviscerated the month of December, 2008, in which - according to unpublished reports - the company lost $1 billion, or $2.15 per share, which would have dramatically changed their results. Goldman's actual results - including the December loss - should have been $1.24 per share, well below the expectations. This is all just spin, and possibly accounting fraud, which, of course, will not be investigated. Shares of Goldman Sachs were lower in after-hours trading.
Oil closed down $2.19, at $50.05. Gold gained $12.50, to $895.80, while silver edged higher by 44 cents, to close at $12.77.
With companies - notably banks - jumping the gun on earnings announcements, the trading environment has gone from nearly impossible to "forget it" status. Nothing makes sense any more. Banks which needed billions of dollars just months ago are now reporting healthy profits. Is it all a sham, a grand design to raid the US treasury? We may never know, but all indications sure seem to be pointing that way.
Overall, there was little movement in anticipation of major earnings announcements which begin this week and will be the focus of trading through the end of the month. Of course, following the key Wells Fargo pre-announcement from Thursday, there's a good deal of excitement and anxiety building over first quarter earnings from major banks. The schedule for bank earnings goes as follows: Goldman Sachs (GS) on April 14, JP Morgan Chase (JPM) on April 16, Citigroup (C) on April 17, Bank of America (BAC) on April 20 and Wells Fargo (WFC) on April 22.
It is notable that Wells Fargo is the last to report, as their actual announcement will more than likely result in a sell-off, the company already having jumped the shark by leaking out their earnings news. The balance of this week, however, will be dominated by the three big banks reporting and it should be quite a show.
Dow 8,057.81, -25.57 (0.32%)
NASDAQ 1,653.31, +0.77 (0.05%)
S&P 500 858.73, +2.17 (0.25%)
NYSE Composite 5,410.28, +33.84 (0.63%)
As for today, it was just a low-volume grind in a fairly tight range. For the time being, volatility has been wrung out of the markets if only because stocks have once again topped out. The next move, whether to the upside or down, will be decisive though earnings reports from various companies over time could contribute to wide swings.
Advancing issues were 4644, to 2855 declining. New lows beat down new highs, 93-31, with the margin increasing again. Volume was on the low side.
NYSE Volume 1,481,100,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,832,720,000
What the market was waiting all day for - Talbot's earnings for the 4th quarter and full year of 2008 - finally appeared online after the close. If the market is seeking direction, take note: The company, trading under the symbol TLB, reported a 4th quarter adjusted net loss (period ended January 31, 2009) of $128.4 million or $2.40 per share compared to last year’s adjusted net loss of $7.1 million or $0.13 per share.
Talbot's operates more than 1000 retail apparel stores in the US, UK and Canada, so all this does is re-confirm that the retail sector is in deep trouble. Shares were down nearly 20% in after-hours trading.
Well, that's what we thought the market was awaiting. Instead, Goldman Sachs decided to report a day earlier, posting earnings of $3.39 per share, beating forecasts of $1.64 per share. Expect stocks to gap up at the open tomorrow on that surprise.
What is troubling about Goldman Sachs' earnings is that since changing their designation from an investment bank to a commercial bank, they also changed their reporting periods, which can be seen plainly in this report. [PDF]
The problem is that the company seems to have completely eviscerated the month of December, 2008, in which - according to unpublished reports - the company lost $1 billion, or $2.15 per share, which would have dramatically changed their results. Goldman's actual results - including the December loss - should have been $1.24 per share, well below the expectations. This is all just spin, and possibly accounting fraud, which, of course, will not be investigated. Shares of Goldman Sachs were lower in after-hours trading.
Oil closed down $2.19, at $50.05. Gold gained $12.50, to $895.80, while silver edged higher by 44 cents, to close at $12.77.
With companies - notably banks - jumping the gun on earnings announcements, the trading environment has gone from nearly impossible to "forget it" status. Nothing makes sense any more. Banks which needed billions of dollars just months ago are now reporting healthy profits. Is it all a sham, a grand design to raid the US treasury? We may never know, but all indications sure seem to be pointing that way.
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Geithner's Wall Street Cram-Down
It was pretty evident that Wall Street didn't like what Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner was telling them when he began outlining the details of TARP II, the $350 billion Obama administration's side of the original $700 billion plan approved in October of 2008.
Stocks were already trading lower when Geithner stepped to the mic, but they really tanked as he drilled out scant details of the government's plan. The Dow was down about 45 points when he started speaking at 11:00 am. By the time he was finished, just a half hour later, the blue chip index was off nearly 300. Matters proceeded to become materially worse from there. The Dow was down more than 400 points before a last-gasp rally trimmed the losses by about 40 points in the final 15 minutes.
Dow 7,888.88, -381.99 (4.62%)
NASDAQ 1,524.73, -66.83 (4.20%)
S&P 500 827.17, -42.72 (4.91%)
NYSE Composite 5,214.34, -265.54 (4.85%)
Some of the more vocal Wall Street banking crowd are complaining that Geithner's plan - which reportedly has provisions for the assumption of some of the banks' toxic assets by private investors - is short on specifics.
The truth of the matter is that it likely opens the banks in question to too much public scrutiny, as evidenced by the government's new web site, financialstability.gov.
For a glimpse of what's ahead for the Bailout Bunch, the site currently links to Treasury's own Emergency Economic Stabilization Act web site. drilling down just a page reveals, under "Systemically Significantly Failing Institutions" we find reams of info on Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo & Co., Bank of New York Mellon, State Street, Merrill Lynch, AIG, plus Chrysler, General Motors and GMAC.
How appropriate and sweetly ironic that these banks and businesses are grouped under such a heading. Most, if not all, are already insolvent. Bloggers and economists should have a field day with all the fresh light shining on these cheaters, liars and scoundrels. There's a wealth of information there, much of it which will almost surely facilitate the demise of these failed firms.
Could the government actually be forcing the banks to confess to their excess and the extent of their failures? It sure looks that way, and, if so, it's a great step forward. Wall Street fails to see it that way, but, clue to the clueless, Wall Street isn't America and the fate of 300 million Americans is not inexorably tied to the ups and downs of the Dow Jones Industrials.
Main Street may finally be catching a break as the banks are forced to come clean, which means that a good number of them will be forced into bankruptcy and/or liquidation, the key step in ridding the market of malinvestments and failed institutions.
Could it be that Secretary Geithner, under the thumb of President Obama, has finally gotten religion and intends to actually correct the mess that he was already a party to? Could be. Obama's sincerity and forthrightness was on display just last night at his first press conference when he left the door a bit ajar in his response to a reporter's question about investigating former administration officials.
His response to a question about Senator Patrick Leahy's calling for a "truth commission" was decidedly grey-area, as the President said much to the affect that while he preferred to "look forward" he would not block investigative efforts. Between those comments and the Geithner cram-down on Wall Street, maybe real healing in America can begin.
This writer honestly hasn't felt this good about a serious market tumble since the dot-com bust, the key being Geithner's fairly obvious signal that the rules have changed and the hand-outs and free rides are now relics of the past.
Advancing issues were absolutely overwhelmed by decliners in the broadest selling since November. Losers led gainers, 5405-1145, a nearly 5-1 edge. New lows continued to strengthen ahead of new highs, 203-19. A major part of the story was volume, which was very strong, indicating that this bust was the real deal.
NYSE Volume 1,757,078,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,473,252,000
Financial stocks took a beating, especially the most egregious offenders. Bank of America (BAC) lost 1.33 to close at 5.56 (-19.30%). There was false hope recently as BofA rallied from below $4 to above $6, a level at which major funds could still participate. It now looks to fall below $5 again, signaling a continuance of the classic death spiral.
Ironically, this stock looks very much like Countrywide did in January of 2008, after Bank of America had assumed most of the company's assets. Countrywide eventually was fully assumed by Bank of America. Much of the same bad debt which killed that company are now crushing CEO Ken Lewis' company. Bank of America has been insolvent for quite some time and it will be interesting to watch the continuing saga of what was once America's largest banking interest.
Citigroup (C), another of the walking dead, was hammered 0.60, to 3.35 (-15.19). This company's future may be numbered in weeks rather than months.
Goldman Sachs (GS) was hard hit, dropping 7.49, to 90.40 (-7.65%). Morgan Stanley (MS)lost 2.82, to 20.79 (-11.95). JP Morgan Chase fell 2.66, to 24.62 (-9.75).
Commodities were mostly mixed with oil down substantially, losing 2.01, closing at $37.55, a three-week low. The metals were moving in the opposite directed, hurriedly. Gold shot up 21.40, to $914.20. Silver gained 30 cents, to 13.13.
The precious metals prices are signaling another flight to safety. Clearly, equities are not the place to be now, as they haven't been for the past 18 months, and they still won't be for some time even though today's decline could be interpreted as the beginning of the recovery. The dollar was up sharply against other currencies.
While our own corrupt bankers and wheedlers express themselves with outcries of fear and panic, smart money is on the greenback and gold, a combination that may not seem plausible at first, though it's better understood when seen in the light of a basic turnover of power. It's clear that the Obama administration is not going to tolerate much less than complete transparency. THAT is a very positive development.
Silver remains my #1 investment. On the other hand, opportunities may begin to emerge in black market tobacco and stinging race and sports fixers, the ultimate revenge play.
Today's losses were surely not the last, as the Dow closed at its lowest level since November 20 of last year and is also the first close since then below 7900. Wall Street is in serious jeopardy of breaking apart at the seams. Another precipitous move lower could be in the cards as the market must retest 7550 on the Dow, though that move actually seems a foregone conclusion after today.
It was a poor day for Wall Street, but a darned good one for the United States of America.
Stocks were already trading lower when Geithner stepped to the mic, but they really tanked as he drilled out scant details of the government's plan. The Dow was down about 45 points when he started speaking at 11:00 am. By the time he was finished, just a half hour later, the blue chip index was off nearly 300. Matters proceeded to become materially worse from there. The Dow was down more than 400 points before a last-gasp rally trimmed the losses by about 40 points in the final 15 minutes.
Dow 7,888.88, -381.99 (4.62%)
NASDAQ 1,524.73, -66.83 (4.20%)
S&P 500 827.17, -42.72 (4.91%)
NYSE Composite 5,214.34, -265.54 (4.85%)
Some of the more vocal Wall Street banking crowd are complaining that Geithner's plan - which reportedly has provisions for the assumption of some of the banks' toxic assets by private investors - is short on specifics.
The truth of the matter is that it likely opens the banks in question to too much public scrutiny, as evidenced by the government's new web site, financialstability.gov.
For a glimpse of what's ahead for the Bailout Bunch, the site currently links to Treasury's own Emergency Economic Stabilization Act web site. drilling down just a page reveals, under "Systemically Significantly Failing Institutions" we find reams of info on Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo & Co., Bank of New York Mellon, State Street, Merrill Lynch, AIG, plus Chrysler, General Motors and GMAC.
How appropriate and sweetly ironic that these banks and businesses are grouped under such a heading. Most, if not all, are already insolvent. Bloggers and economists should have a field day with all the fresh light shining on these cheaters, liars and scoundrels. There's a wealth of information there, much of it which will almost surely facilitate the demise of these failed firms.
Could the government actually be forcing the banks to confess to their excess and the extent of their failures? It sure looks that way, and, if so, it's a great step forward. Wall Street fails to see it that way, but, clue to the clueless, Wall Street isn't America and the fate of 300 million Americans is not inexorably tied to the ups and downs of the Dow Jones Industrials.
Main Street may finally be catching a break as the banks are forced to come clean, which means that a good number of them will be forced into bankruptcy and/or liquidation, the key step in ridding the market of malinvestments and failed institutions.
Could it be that Secretary Geithner, under the thumb of President Obama, has finally gotten religion and intends to actually correct the mess that he was already a party to? Could be. Obama's sincerity and forthrightness was on display just last night at his first press conference when he left the door a bit ajar in his response to a reporter's question about investigating former administration officials.
His response to a question about Senator Patrick Leahy's calling for a "truth commission" was decidedly grey-area, as the President said much to the affect that while he preferred to "look forward" he would not block investigative efforts. Between those comments and the Geithner cram-down on Wall Street, maybe real healing in America can begin.
This writer honestly hasn't felt this good about a serious market tumble since the dot-com bust, the key being Geithner's fairly obvious signal that the rules have changed and the hand-outs and free rides are now relics of the past.
Advancing issues were absolutely overwhelmed by decliners in the broadest selling since November. Losers led gainers, 5405-1145, a nearly 5-1 edge. New lows continued to strengthen ahead of new highs, 203-19. A major part of the story was volume, which was very strong, indicating that this bust was the real deal.
NYSE Volume 1,757,078,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,473,252,000
Financial stocks took a beating, especially the most egregious offenders. Bank of America (BAC) lost 1.33 to close at 5.56 (-19.30%). There was false hope recently as BofA rallied from below $4 to above $6, a level at which major funds could still participate. It now looks to fall below $5 again, signaling a continuance of the classic death spiral.
Ironically, this stock looks very much like Countrywide did in January of 2008, after Bank of America had assumed most of the company's assets. Countrywide eventually was fully assumed by Bank of America. Much of the same bad debt which killed that company are now crushing CEO Ken Lewis' company. Bank of America has been insolvent for quite some time and it will be interesting to watch the continuing saga of what was once America's largest banking interest.
Citigroup (C), another of the walking dead, was hammered 0.60, to 3.35 (-15.19). This company's future may be numbered in weeks rather than months.
Goldman Sachs (GS) was hard hit, dropping 7.49, to 90.40 (-7.65%). Morgan Stanley (MS)lost 2.82, to 20.79 (-11.95). JP Morgan Chase fell 2.66, to 24.62 (-9.75).
Commodities were mostly mixed with oil down substantially, losing 2.01, closing at $37.55, a three-week low. The metals were moving in the opposite directed, hurriedly. Gold shot up 21.40, to $914.20. Silver gained 30 cents, to 13.13.
The precious metals prices are signaling another flight to safety. Clearly, equities are not the place to be now, as they haven't been for the past 18 months, and they still won't be for some time even though today's decline could be interpreted as the beginning of the recovery. The dollar was up sharply against other currencies.
While our own corrupt bankers and wheedlers express themselves with outcries of fear and panic, smart money is on the greenback and gold, a combination that may not seem plausible at first, though it's better understood when seen in the light of a basic turnover of power. It's clear that the Obama administration is not going to tolerate much less than complete transparency. THAT is a very positive development.
Silver remains my #1 investment. On the other hand, opportunities may begin to emerge in black market tobacco and stinging race and sports fixers, the ultimate revenge play.
Today's losses were surely not the last, as the Dow closed at its lowest level since November 20 of last year and is also the first close since then below 7900. Wall Street is in serious jeopardy of breaking apart at the seams. Another precipitous move lower could be in the cards as the market must retest 7550 on the Dow, though that move actually seems a foregone conclusion after today.
It was a poor day for Wall Street, but a darned good one for the United States of America.
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