Stocks Split as Dow Flirts with 25,000 Mark

The Dow Industrials and the NYSE Composite ended the day lower on Tuesday, while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ posted gains.

All of the moves were muted, amounting to nothing more than market noise, except for the frothy NASDAQ, which posted an all-time closing high at 7637.86, barely - by 0.59 points - topping the previous high from mid-May.

The soaring NASDAQ should remind veteran traders of the red-hot dot-com market of 1999 and early 2000, which ending in tatters, cascading lower in March of 2000 in one of the greatest stock market routs of all time.

It took the NASDAQ a full 13 years to regain those 2000 highs, with an additional collapse in 2007-09. If anybody is thinking that the NASDAQ is once again running full throttle on hope and hype, they're probably in the cautious camp that has seen this kind of market madness before.

The leading stocks of the NASDAQ are the usual suspect, overvalued companies - the FAANGS - and traders will be riding their valuations for as long as the good times roll. The obvious question is how long before these titans of technology roll over.

Nothing lasts forever, including stock manias based on companies that have recently come under fire for misdeeds and faulty business practices and products. Tesla (TSLA), Facebook (FB), Starbucks (SBUX), and Alphabet, parent of Google (GOOG) have each had bouts of bad publicity, though the fallout hasn't readily struck their valuations.

Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) are testing their upper ranges, adding some supposed value nearly every day. Apple is approaching a valuation of one trillion dollars, while Amazon is not far behind. Is any company worth a trillion dollars? That is a lot of money.

Meanwhile, the Dow continues to plow along just below 25,000, a figure it has achieved only one time since March 13. While 25,000 is still 1600 points below the all-time high on that index, it appears to be a psychological barrier that may prove difficult to surpass and maintain.

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
6/1/18	24,635.21	+219.37	+219.37
6/4/18	24,813.69	+178.48	+397.85
6/5/18	24,799.98	-13.71	+384.14

At the Close, Tuesday, June 5, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,799.98, -13.71 (-0.06%)
NASDAQ: 7,637.86, +31.40 (+0.41%)
S&P 500: 2,748.80, +1.93 (+0.07%)
NYSE Composite: 12,658.70, -15.21 (-0.12%)

Seven Straight: Dow Misses 20,000 Mark Again; Stocks Slip; Fearless Rick Calls 20,000 In 2023

In what was the Dow's narrowest trading day since 2013, the widely-watched industrial average failed to ramp over the 20,000 mark. The DJIA fell on light volume, as did all other major indices, along with WTI crude, silver, gold and treasury yields.

Financials managed to hold green post-Fed but all other sectors are lower since the rate hike announcement a week ago. Speaking of lower, volume has completely dried up. Bonds got a small bid on the day, pushing yields slightly lower, the benchmark 10-year note was down 0.022, finishing at 2.546.

It was a day of reflecting on what has happened in 2016 and weighing the possibilities of the rally extension beyond the magical 20,000 number, which, in the long and short of it, is wholly psychological and largely meaningless unless one has invested heavily in "DOW 20,000" baseball caps.

This leaves managers with just seven more trading days to square their books for the year, something any smart (read: few, if any) player would have already accomplished prior to heading off for the holidays. Seven is also the number of days that people thought the Dow would breach 20,000. Something about that number...

A betting man would give good odds that the Dow won't break the 20,000 barrier this year and might get an even better shake on the Dow busting through by June of 2017, but it may be a bet worth taking. Failure of markets, especially after a long run-up and a bull market that's extremely overextended, is rather common. The chances of a pullback between now and February seem almost certain, especially beyond the rate hike and the obvious tax incentives to sell come January 3rd, the opening trading day of next year.

Since Money Daily publisher Fearless Rick has already established himself on two accounts lately (the Trump call in Ocotber and the more recent "silver under $16" post a week ago, he's ready to plunge headlong into this debate. Here's the call:

The Dow isn't going to make it to 20,000 this year, and it won't make it by June of next year. In fact, it may not hit 20,000 until 2023. Book it.

Obviously, our intrepid publisher is going out on a limb rather than risking one. He's currently long machinery and undeveloped real estate. Yikes!

At The Close, 12/21/16:
Dow: 19,941.96, -32.66 (-0.16%)
NASDAQ: 5,471.43, -12.51 (-0.23%)
S&P 500: 2,265.18, -5.58 (-0.25%)
NYSE Composite: 11,142.57, -29.62 (-0.27%)

Dow Pops 10,000

I am actually exhausted from playing today's breakout rally. I've been up since 4:00 am, so great was my anticipation of the day the Dow finally popped 10,000. Here's what you need to know:

The last time the Dow crossed and closed above 10000 was on December 11, 2003. By January 26, 2004, it had topped out at 10,702, finally peaking in October, 2007 above 14,000.

Prior to that, the Dow's first cross of 10,000 was March 26 of 1999, during the heat of the dot-com boom. After testing the level for 5 trading days, the index finally climbed above the mark on April 7. On January 16, 2000, it peaked at 11722.98.

The people telling you that Dow 10,000 is insignificant and that it has crossed over that point 26 times are misleading you, whether on purpose or through partial ignorance. Every time the Dow has pierced the 10,000 mark to the upside in the midst of a rally, it has continued higher, significantly.

Today's move was interesting in that it came with options expiration just 2 days away. This kept a lid on stocks through most of the session, frustrating all but the most savvy investors, who knew that option positions were being flipped with every uptick short of 10,000. By 3:00, the lid came off as players sat back, counted their profits and held overnight. Some of the biggest options payoffs come on the final days of trading, though recently, Wednesdays have been the most active. Nobody wants to be caught in an upside down position with no way out, so holding until the final expiration is only for the best or the worst options traders.

Noting that, Thursday and Friday may be a little light, but Monday, when new positions are being staked out, should be explosive. There are more earnings due out over the course of the next three weeks, with the next two the busiest. Knowing which stocks to play will be essential to profits.

Dow 10,015.86, +144.80 (1.47%)
NASDAQ 2,172.23, +32.34 (1.51%)
S&P 500 1,092.02, +18.83 (1.75%)
NYSE Composite 7,182.38, +150.51 (2.14%)

Today really was all about the Dow Jones Industrials, but only 25 of the 30 stocks were gainers. Home Depot (HD), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ) and Wal-Mart (WMT) were the only losers and their losses were light. There will always be laggards, but as long as there are leaders, the Dow Index is still relevant.

On the day, simple indicators expressed exactly what kind of session it was: BULLISH! Advancers clobbered declining issues, 4887-1640 (3-1). New highs were all over the place, 921 of them, the most in over two years. There were 94 new lows. Volume was average, which means that those still out of the market have not yet found the courage to get in the game. They have missed the most significant rally of a generation, but the best part is that they don't know it's not over yet. There are still plenty of success stories to be told in this rally. When the outside money comes in, it will just add fuel to the already overheated fire and probably cause a correction as profits are taken with enthusiasm. Market tops always occur when the late money or stupid money gets involved and this is no different.

NYSE Volume 6,248,702,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,383,078,250

Talk has been rampant about predictions for the end of the year. Dow 10,700 and 11,150 and S&P 1200 have been popular numbers thrown out by experienced, professional traders. Those sound like reasonable targets. All of the major indices made new 2009 and multi-month highs.

Commodities took a back seat to stocks. Oil gained $1.03, to $75.18. Gold fell 30 cents, to $1,064.70. Silver was up 7 cents, to $17.91. They were a side show, but still tradable on pullbacks.

The rally was led by a troika of grand news. Intel posted exceptional 3rd quarter numbers and even better guidance. JP Morgan Chase blew the lid off, beat the 52 cents the street was expecting by 30 cents. 82 cents per share! Then, at 8:30 am, retail sales showed improvement when the cash for clunkers was stripped out. Finally, consumer demand has emerged. Just n time for Christmas.

There are more companies reporting tomorrow, notable Goldman Sachs (GS) and Google (GOOG). They are both expected to have blockbuster results.

The importance of Dow 10,000 cannot be underestimated. everyone who works on Wall Street feels better tonight than they did this morning. All investors who are in the market are probably a little more at ease. We, after all are human, and the number is an emotional one. It just plain makes us feel good about the economy. Everyone on the planet can relate to the big, round number, especially following the events of the past year.

There are more gains ahead.

Happy trading!

Another Banner Day as Dow Crashes through 13,000

Wednesday was just another day on Wall Street in this exceptionally energetic earnings season. Apple reported outstanding numbers and stocks soared on a wave of unbridled optimism.

It's becoming so routine to the point of boredom, just watching everything go up, up, up all the time, day after day, la dee da...

If you're in the right stocks it's a marvelous time to be invested. The question is why, if all is so damn wonderful in the world of high finance and corporate profitability, did only 22% of respondents to a new NBC/Wall St. Journal poll say that America was moving in the right direction. There seems to be a high level of dissatisfaction afoot, but none of it could be found on Wall Street.

Still, the mood of the public raises an interesting question. Are these anonymous poll respondents seeing something we're missing? Are the profits on Wall Street more fleeting and illusory than we have been led to believe? Or are the investment returns isolated to an emerging, small class of wealthy individuals who reap most of the gain from soaring stocks?

Food for thought, which we're not going to bite on right now.

Dow 13,089.89 +135.95; NASDAQ 2,547.89 +23.35; S&P 500 1,495.42 +15.01; NYSE Composite 9,746.57 +98.07

Apple was the key driver for the day, reporting profits of $770 million, or 87 cents per share, up from $410 million, or 47 cents per share, in the year-ago period. The stock breached the $100 mark on the news, up 2.11 on the session. Analysts were looking for 64 cents per share, so they, like everyone else, were absolutely shocked at Apple's incredible performance.

Corporate news took precedence over the scourge of the street, crude oil, which jumped back up to $65.84/bbl., up $1.26 on the NY Mercantile Exchange. In what continues to be a counter-trade, gold and silver both lost ground again, though gold at $387.40 and silver at $13.90 are close to the higher end of the range. There may be some consolidation at this level, anticipating a break out. However, there have been a number of false flags like this, so it could just turn out to be more of the same as no catalyst seems capable of taking the metals to new highs.

Speaking of new highs, there were an astounding 602 of them, versus only 69 new lows, the bulk of those on the NASDAQ.

Volume was exceptionally strong, one of the top 5 volume days this year and advancing issues drubbed decliners by nearly a 2-1 margin.

The question for tomorrow and the succeeding sessions leading up to the May 9 FOMC meeting is, how high is up?

Dull and Duller but Prepare for Launch to 20,000

If you thought yesterday's market action was about as exciting as ice fishing, then today's minuscule moves must have you itching to watch paint dry. Though volume was moderately better than Monday's, the markets barely budged, though all three major indices managed to post in the positive column.

Here's the exciting news: the Dow jumped a whole 4.57, the NASDAQ erupted 0.89 to the upside and the S&P 500 surged (word of the week) 1.01.

Wow! Don't cash out your 401k just yet.

Investors seem to be somewhat anxious about making any notable moves, even though the market continues to point towards a higher future. And I think that's where it's going, though I'd be remiss to predict just when this move will take place.

Normally, I'm bearish at times of little activity, but the US economy, despite complaints from wage earners and middle managers alike, is about to embark on another hyperbolic swell not seen since... well, 1999.

The 2000 mini-crash is now nearly 7 years in the past. That flop didn't exactly stop people from investing, nor did 9/11, the currency malaise, the inverted bond scare, the housing boom-bust cycle or any other nonsense the Fed or the financial press can dream up.

Truth be told, this market looks very much like the one we had in the early 90s. There's a ton of money itching to be invested and the risks are spread like no other time in our history. Companies populating the NASDAQ, NYSE and S&P 500 include the biggest and best global brands, emerging titans and a bevy of companies spinning off profits quarter after quarter.

The direction of the market is not really in question, but when the market will move is still undecided. This lull is a good indication that many stocks are consolidating and about to make another monster move forward. This quarter will probably be a great time to invest because the big move will be later this year and through 2010.

There's simply too much money with no place to go but into stocks. Whether or not stocks are a safe investment should be a topic for another day. Right now, it's time to enjoy the ride because it's going to be a really good one. Yes, there will be bumps, but the US economy is percolating at a very healthy rate and companies are brimming with cash.

The Dow is headed to 20,000 before the end of 2010. It's going to start slowly, but even a 6-7% increase this year will provide a solid base.