Warning on Dow Theory Primary Trend: Watch the Dow Jones Transportation Index

This is a special note to followers of Dow Theory.

Presently, one must pay attention to the Dow Jones Transportation Index (^DJT). It has to close below 10,136.61, the Feb. 9 close, to confirm a change in the primary trend from Bull to Bear.

The Industrials already made the move this Friday past, but, according to Dow Theory (which is like 95% accurate - or better - when it comes to signaling primary directional changes), the Transports must confirm.

If it happens today (currently around 10,190) or tomorrow, bear in mind that markets are closed Friday (commemorating the day Jesus was crucified) and Sunday, the day Jesus rose from the dead, according to the Bible.

Far from bible-thumping, chronic venial sinners should bear in mind that Jesus may have risen from the dead, but the stock market probably won't.

Anyhow, when the transports confirm, then you'll have the answer to whether or not this is/was a turning point in the stock market.

Added, 10:48 am EDT: Transports have fallen below the target close for the second time today. The first fall was all the way down to 10,112.05, shortly after the opening bell. The most current drop has apparently bottomed (for now) at 10,121.22. Current conditions warrant monitoring the Transportation Index into the close.