For a Monday, trading wasn't very impressive. The back-and-forth of the equity markets we've been seeing for many months have elicited a cautionary mood. There's modest dip-buying and rallies are being sold, though not excessively. It makes a great market for traders on commission or those who are in and out of stocks faster than political media pundits can say, "Russia."
It being the heart of third quarter earnings season, there are likely to be bumps and grinds, but the news of the day was the S&P picking up 20 points to close above 3,000, the first time it's been there since September 19. Prior to that, the S&P remained at elevated levels for the last two weeks in July, topping out at 3,025.86 on the 26th before taking a five percent dive in August.
The question now, with impeachment talk fading, troops coming out of Syria and a tentative cease fire between the Kurds and Turks imposed, a China deal looking better every day, and still-solid employment figures, is whether the index can make a new all-time high and hold there. The Fed is certainly doing its part, adding as much liquidity as it can, as quickly as possible, but yields on the 10-year note are not making it any easier, reaching 1.80% on Monday. The good news from the bond pits is that the curve is no longer inverted and hasn't been for some time, easing recession fears.
Thus, there are shifting winds, buffeting the sails of sellers and buyers alike, but the S&P 500 appears to be marching toward uncharted territory. Another session like Monday's would put it over the top.
As far as alternatives, the aforementioned bond arena is looking better and better, though far-out alternatives like gas generators, extra canned goods, firewood, and gardening supplies have taken the front seat on the road to self-sufficiency.
It's no joke that preppers are still prepping for the inevitable crash and burn, or civil war, or zombie apocalypse. It's coming, but no one knows when. For the most part, all those canned goods have to be rotated at last every few years, but, hey, everybody has to eat.
Gold bugs and silver surfers have been backstabbed repeatedly by the futures traders whose sole mission in life, it seems, is to keep a lid on the price of precious metals. They've done a stellar job, smashing down gold every time it crests above $1500, and silver, whenever it gets to $18 per ounce, is sold as if it's some form of monetary kryptonite.
That leaves stocks, or maybe it's time to think about buying a few cows and a brace of chickens. McDonald's (MCD) may be thinking along those lines. They missed on both top and bottom line estimates with EPS coming in at $2.11 vs. $2.21 expected. Overall, it wasn't bad, however. Despite a miss on domestic same store sales - +4.8% vs. +5.2% expected - which is causing a decline of about four percent in pre-market trading, most companies would be happy with growth above four percent, especially established brands like Mickey D's.
Investors always overreact, and this is no different, though with a multiple closing in on 30, maybe the fast food giant is a bit overpriced above $200 per share.
You want fries with that sell order?
At the Close, Monday, October 21, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 26,827.64, +57.44 (+0.21%)
NASDAQ: 8,162.99, +73.44 (+0.91%)
S&P 500 3,006.72, +20.52 (+0.69%)
NYSE Composite: 13,088.61, +81.97 (+0.63%)
Showing posts with label McDonald's (MCD). Show all posts
Showing posts with label McDonald's (MCD). Show all posts
Tuesday, October 22, 2019
Wednesday, July 26, 2017
Stocks Unimpressed With FOMC Decision; Dollar Dashed
The Fomc wrapped up a relatively uneventful meeting Wednesday, keeping rates unchanged and saying little to nothing about winding down the Fed's bloated balance sheet.
After two hikes already this year, rates will almost surely remain on hold until December and an announcement that the Federal Reserve is ready to shed assets may come at the September meeting, according to knowledgeable experts on the subject. Having been sufficiently prepped and prodded, the Fed can feel some confidence that a beginning of an asset unloading program won't upset the status quo too awfully much.
The one kicker is that the wildly out-of-control federal government faces a potentially debilitating debt ceiling debate and a testy budget process in September, but that will come only after congress has taken a month's vacation, pending Obamacare replace and/or repeal legislation currently under consideration in the Senate.
Nothing the Fed does can accurately predict what the paid lackeys... er, prostitutes, er, politicians will do when the rubber meets the road in terms of the soon-to-be $20 trillion national debt. Chances are good that they'll punt, laying one deep and long, giving themselves room to survive the midterm elections in 2018. One person who does not have to suffer any kind of electoral fate in that year is President Trump, who is almost certain to have boisterous opinions on the matter of the debt ceiling and federal government budget.
There are wild card outcomes which the Fed is unable to predict no matter how deep or thorough their modeling, which raises the possibility for abrupt changes in policy, and the jokers dealt by the government are not the only potential surprises. Geopolitics - specifically, North Korea, Ukraine, Iran, or Syria - may play a role in future policies, as could any number of scenarios, from ECB jump-starting their own tapering, Japan failing to follow through with continued buying of equities, or, perhaps a war between China and India stemming from border disputes in and near the Himalaya mountains. Go figure.
As far as stock movements and reactions to the FOMC nothing-burger issued today, the markets basically were held in suspended animation afterwards with a slight bias to the downside.
The outsize gains on the DJIA were largely the result of Boeing's (BA) monstrous 9.2% spike today (biggest day for BA since 10/28/08), responsible for 132 Dow points. So, essentially, the remainder of the Dow was lower, only lifted higher by the flighty airline manufacturer. Only 13 Dow components were higher, 17 lower, led down by Nike and McDonald's, the latter having made new all-time highs just yesterday, which is alarming, since what the company passes off for food has recently reached new lows. Must be their outstanding customer service or something else casual consumers just don't see or understand. Share of MCD are massively overpriced, with earnings per share of 6.25 and a stock price of roughly 156 translating to a P/E of 25. Shareholders and executives (neither of which actually eat at any of their own restaurants) are "loving' it."
The dollar got whiplashed lower, sending (alarm bells) gold and silver higher. Also on the run is the price of crude oil, as the latest reports showed a massive draw, though gasoline inventories were built. Once more, the people actually using the stuff - drivers - just don't get it, apparently.
At the Close, 7/26/17:
Dow: 21,711.01, +97.58 (0.45%)
NASDAQ: 6,422.75, +10.57 (0.16%)
S&P 500 2,477.83: 0.70 (0.03%)
NYSE Composite: 11,964.92, -0.80 (-0.01%)
After two hikes already this year, rates will almost surely remain on hold until December and an announcement that the Federal Reserve is ready to shed assets may come at the September meeting, according to knowledgeable experts on the subject. Having been sufficiently prepped and prodded, the Fed can feel some confidence that a beginning of an asset unloading program won't upset the status quo too awfully much.
The one kicker is that the wildly out-of-control federal government faces a potentially debilitating debt ceiling debate and a testy budget process in September, but that will come only after congress has taken a month's vacation, pending Obamacare replace and/or repeal legislation currently under consideration in the Senate.
Nothing the Fed does can accurately predict what the paid lackeys... er, prostitutes, er, politicians will do when the rubber meets the road in terms of the soon-to-be $20 trillion national debt. Chances are good that they'll punt, laying one deep and long, giving themselves room to survive the midterm elections in 2018. One person who does not have to suffer any kind of electoral fate in that year is President Trump, who is almost certain to have boisterous opinions on the matter of the debt ceiling and federal government budget.
There are wild card outcomes which the Fed is unable to predict no matter how deep or thorough their modeling, which raises the possibility for abrupt changes in policy, and the jokers dealt by the government are not the only potential surprises. Geopolitics - specifically, North Korea, Ukraine, Iran, or Syria - may play a role in future policies, as could any number of scenarios, from ECB jump-starting their own tapering, Japan failing to follow through with continued buying of equities, or, perhaps a war between China and India stemming from border disputes in and near the Himalaya mountains. Go figure.
As far as stock movements and reactions to the FOMC nothing-burger issued today, the markets basically were held in suspended animation afterwards with a slight bias to the downside.
The outsize gains on the DJIA were largely the result of Boeing's (BA) monstrous 9.2% spike today (biggest day for BA since 10/28/08), responsible for 132 Dow points. So, essentially, the remainder of the Dow was lower, only lifted higher by the flighty airline manufacturer. Only 13 Dow components were higher, 17 lower, led down by Nike and McDonald's, the latter having made new all-time highs just yesterday, which is alarming, since what the company passes off for food has recently reached new lows. Must be their outstanding customer service or something else casual consumers just don't see or understand. Share of MCD are massively overpriced, with earnings per share of 6.25 and a stock price of roughly 156 translating to a P/E of 25. Shareholders and executives (neither of which actually eat at any of their own restaurants) are "loving' it."
The dollar got whiplashed lower, sending (alarm bells) gold and silver higher. Also on the run is the price of crude oil, as the latest reports showed a massive draw, though gasoline inventories were built. Once more, the people actually using the stuff - drivers - just don't get it, apparently.
At the Close, 7/26/17:
Dow: 21,711.01, +97.58 (0.45%)
NASDAQ: 6,422.75, +10.57 (0.16%)
S&P 500 2,477.83: 0.70 (0.03%)
NYSE Composite: 11,964.92, -0.80 (-0.01%)
Wednesday, August 8, 2012
Why Bother? Stocks Are Volatile and May Be Overpriced
With nearly two trillion dollars having been shifted out of stock funds into bond funds and elsewhere over the past four years, wealth managers and their clients might look at today's results and question whether stocks are worth even bothering with at all.
Besides volatility and inherently high risk that stocks present, there are also event risks, especially within the framework of recent politics, the European debt crisis and the so-called fiscal cliff which continues to approach without resolution from either the president or the current do-nothing congress.
What's amazing about the current state of US markets is how wonderfully they engage in self-levitation, despite crumbling profitability and dubious upgrades. Now 41 months into the cyclical bull market, the risk/reward scenario for anyone thinking about taking the plunge into stocks offers a mixed bag, at best, and questionable fundamentals at worst.
Take, for example, the two stocks of the day. McDonald's (MCD) had some horrendous numbers for the month of July, missing their targets, with a special nod to Europe, where sales and revenue were far below the mark. The stock was damaged by the news, though not badly, losing 1.48, to 87.53, on the day, though the multiple of 14 has some analysts worried about a global slowdown which would affect even such a stellar performer.
Priceline (PCLN), a momentum stock par excellence was a bit of a different story, losing 117.48 points (17.28%), to 562.32 today, after citing Europe as the main cause for revising its third quarter estimates lower.
Similar stories have rolled through the investment landscape with regularity over the past six months. The business climate has grown more challenging than ever with so much uncertainty about the future, both in the US and in Europe. It's difficult for companies to meet expectations for revenue and profit in such an unstable environment.
Many have already thrown in the towel on stocks and, at these levels, many more may see cashing out before the fall as a viable plan. The macro picture is still cloudy and murky, fraught with dangers, some of which are largely unseen. The bull market may be nearing the end of its course, making stocks less attractive for long-term investors.
Dow 13,175.64, +7.04 (0.05%)
Nasdaq 3,011.25, -4.61 (0.15%)
S&P 500 1,402.22, +0.87 (0.06%)
NYSE Composite 8,018.24, +0.53 (0.01%)
NYSE Volume 3,227,711,500
Nasdaq Volume 1,881,049,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2535-2886
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 208-51
WTI crude oil: 93.35, -0.32
Gold: 1,616.00, +3.20
Silver: 28.08, -0.01
Besides volatility and inherently high risk that stocks present, there are also event risks, especially within the framework of recent politics, the European debt crisis and the so-called fiscal cliff which continues to approach without resolution from either the president or the current do-nothing congress.
What's amazing about the current state of US markets is how wonderfully they engage in self-levitation, despite crumbling profitability and dubious upgrades. Now 41 months into the cyclical bull market, the risk/reward scenario for anyone thinking about taking the plunge into stocks offers a mixed bag, at best, and questionable fundamentals at worst.
Take, for example, the two stocks of the day. McDonald's (MCD) had some horrendous numbers for the month of July, missing their targets, with a special nod to Europe, where sales and revenue were far below the mark. The stock was damaged by the news, though not badly, losing 1.48, to 87.53, on the day, though the multiple of 14 has some analysts worried about a global slowdown which would affect even such a stellar performer.
Priceline (PCLN), a momentum stock par excellence was a bit of a different story, losing 117.48 points (17.28%), to 562.32 today, after citing Europe as the main cause for revising its third quarter estimates lower.
Similar stories have rolled through the investment landscape with regularity over the past six months. The business climate has grown more challenging than ever with so much uncertainty about the future, both in the US and in Europe. It's difficult for companies to meet expectations for revenue and profit in such an unstable environment.
Many have already thrown in the towel on stocks and, at these levels, many more may see cashing out before the fall as a viable plan. The macro picture is still cloudy and murky, fraught with dangers, some of which are largely unseen. The bull market may be nearing the end of its course, making stocks less attractive for long-term investors.
Dow 13,175.64, +7.04 (0.05%)
Nasdaq 3,011.25, -4.61 (0.15%)
S&P 500 1,402.22, +0.87 (0.06%)
NYSE Composite 8,018.24, +0.53 (0.01%)
NYSE Volume 3,227,711,500
Nasdaq Volume 1,881,049,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2535-2886
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 208-51
WTI crude oil: 93.35, -0.32
Gold: 1,616.00, +3.20
Silver: 28.08, -0.01
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