Showing posts with label P/E. Show all posts
Showing posts with label P/E. Show all posts

Wednesday, December 18, 2019

Stocks Pause But Are Likely To Go Higher Soon

Markets took a breather on Tuesday, possibly in anticipation of the impeachment vote in the House of Representatives coming on Wednesday, but also not discounting the fact that stocks are once again hitting new record highs.

An appreciation that stocks may have reached untenably high valuations would likely slow down or reverse trends in most markets, but stocks in the era of free Fed money are far removed from anything approaching normalcy. This slow trading will likely last only a day or two at best, for there is money to be made in finding the greater fool, upon whom one can dispose of overpriced assets.

As far as measures of valuation are concerned, one of the best is Robert Shiller's CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted P/E) ratio, which takes the average P/E ratio of a stock over the past ten years, not just the past year or forward year as the simple P/E ratio does. It stands today at 30.60, a level above that of Black Tuesday, the fateful day in 1929 which kicked off the Great Depression.

Shiller's CAPE level, while accurately delineating the high valuation of stocks being bought and sold in today's marketplace, should also not alarm. They've been at, above or near that same level for some time. It might be instructive to note that the highest CAPE reading ever was in 2000, at the peak of the NASDAQ bubble, when the ratio stood at nearly 45.

This one-day bout of sleepiness is probably an outgrowth of being a little bit overextended in some people's minds. They are likely to be changed soon. There still appears to be plenty of room to run.

At the Close, Tuesday, December 17, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 28,267.16, +31.27 (+0.11%)
NASDAQ: 8,823.36, +9.13 (+0.10%)
S&P 500: 3,192.52, +1.07 (+0.03%)
NYSE Composite: 13,795.35, +0.20 (+0.00%)

Monday, March 21, 2016

Sluggish Beginning To Week Has Stocks Cautious, Business Stalled

With little information upon which to base trading other than the recent dovish sentiments expressed by central banks, stocks in the US moved in a tight trading range to start the week.

The lack of volatility was something of a surprise, given that investors and speculators have been given the green light by Yellen and Co., though perhaps upon closer inspection, getting ahead of breakeven for the year has some of the more seasoned veteran traders taking a pause.

By just about any metric, stocks on the S&P and NASDAQ are highly overvalued, with most P/E estimates averaging in the low 20s on both exchanges. Dow Industrials are just a little less highly-valued, though some, such as Caterpillar (CAT) are showing severe signs of globalization stress.

CATs problems remain on the revenue side of the ledger, as the company hasn't met targets since the financial calamity of 2008. Global growth being as slow as it has been - and especially such in mining, infrastructure, and major construction, CATs bailiwick - the company is simply unable to deliver results like those during the housing and credit bubble.

That's largely the case for major industrial companies, which have weathered the storm via stock buybacks, close attention to labor levels, and an outright strike on capital improvements. While this short-term strategy may be worthwhile from quarter to quarter, in the long run, these companies have to get back to growing and maintaining their core business interests. Uncertainty - despite the easy credit conditions which are prevalent - concerning global monetary policy is keeping the lid on capital investment.

Worse yet, and this is not seen in any of the macro-metrics, is the paucity of new business development, either in the way of spin-offs or entrepreneurial endeavors. Small business, saddled by an onerous regulatory regime, high taxation and pressure on state legislatures to increase minimum wages, is stifling business formation.

These conditions cannot maintain for too long, lest the markets revolt, consumers retrench, and recession becomes reality.

Today's impish gains:
S&P 500: 2,051.60, +2.02 (0.10%)
Dow: 17,623.87, +21.57 (0.12%)
NASDAQ: 4,808.87, +13.23 (0.28%)

Crude Oil 41.68 +1.31% Gold 1,244.30 -0.80% EUR/USD 1.1245 -0.20% 10-Yr Bond 1.92 +2.78% Corn 369.00 +0.54% Copper 2.29 +0.31% Silver 15.86 +0.31% Natural Gas 1.82 -4.72% Russell 2000 1,098.58 -0.28% VIX 13.79 -1.64% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4373 -0.62% USD/JPY 111.8770 +0.34%