WEEKEND WRAP: Another Shaky Week for Stocks; Bond, Gold, Silver Rallies Extend

As the global ponzi turns, the week now left behind shares a trails of tears and cheers, sadness for equity holders, joyous celebrations in the bond pits as US rates re-approach the zero-bound (despite the Fed's reluctance).

While stocks bounced like a rubber ball on a string, the losses were limited by some mysterious dip-buying mid-week as news flow changed not just by the day, but seemingly by the hour.

At the same time, the bond market in the US was mimicking Japan and Europe, grinding yields lower, with the 10-year note closing out the week at 1.74%, which is lower than the 1,2,3,6-month and one-year yields, making the case for an already inverted yield curve. The 2-year continues to be resilient, though one has to wonder how much longer it can hold the narrow margin below the 10-year, which is currently a scant 11 basis points (1.63%).

Precious metals have also benefitted from global uncertainty, with gold hovering around $1500 and silver teasing the $17.00 mark. Both are significantly higher from lows spotted in late May. The ascent of the metals has been swift and without any major pullback. If the metals are in an overbought condition, they certainly aren't showing any signs of it. As usual, however, the persistence of central banks to keep "real money" on its heels is probably keeping PMs from going vertical. That story seems to have no end, except that a hyperbolic rise in gold and silver would signal the death of not just the US dollar, but probably all fiat currencies in use by every nation, developed or not. After fiat finds its proper value (ZERO), barter will follow. It's a natural progression. The central question, as has been for centuries, is, "what do you give for a live chicken?"

Though it may appear that the global economy is about to implode, it's useful to be reminded that the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) is well beyond its 10th anniversary, thanks to massive infusions of counterfeit fiat ladled out to the unwashed by the BOJ, FRS, BOE, SNB, PBOC, ECB. Spelling out the acronyms somehow yields negative interest rates and the death of money. Nobody knows when this will occur, but it will, and the effects will devastate many. Think billions of people, not just millions.

In the interim, as the world is roiled by international, geopolitical events, the wall of worry is being built upon the current crises (not in any particular order):

• The Epstein "suicide"
• Honk Hong protests
• Brexit
• Trade War and tariffs
• Middle East tensions
• Mass Shootings, Gun Control Legislation, Red Flaw Laws (won't happen)
• 2020 presidential election hijinks
• Ongoing migrations (Africa to Europe, South America to North America, China to Africa)

That's more than enough to keep traders up at night and on their collective toes during the days ahead.

Incidentally, all of this anguish has shielded the markets somewhat from a less-than-rousing second quarter earnings season, even as the corporates float through the third quarter. The Dow Transports re-entered correction territory two weeks past week and extended it last week with the worst showing of all the US indices, by far.

Recession is almost a certainly, though it needn't be particularly horrible for the US, since employment is still strong, despite weakening earnings in the large cap corporate sector. Since the US is a very big country, different areas will be affected in different ways. Areas of the country that have been growing (most of the South, Midwest and Pacific Northwest) will continue to do so, albeit at a slower pace. Those areas in decline (Northeast cities, California, rural enclaves) will see conditions worsen. Those areas in decline will continue to do so through good times and bad and some may be exacerbated by outflows of high income individuals due to SALT taxes. It's a big country, a panacea for speculators with long time horizons.

At the Close, Friday, August 9:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 26,287.44, -90.76 (-0.34%)
NASDAQ: 7,959.14, -80.02 (-1.00%)
S&P 500: 2,918.65, -19.44 (-0.66%)
NYSE Composite: 12,748.42, -80.38 (-0.63%)

For the Week:
Dow Industrials: -197.57 (-0.75%)
Dow Jones Transports: -167.22 (-1.61%)
NASDAQ: -44.93 (-0.56%)
S&P 500: -13.40 (-0.46%)
NYSE Composite: -91.08 (-0.71%)

Friday's Moonshot Sends Stocks to Positive for March, Year-to-Date

After losing nearly 500 points the first two trading days of March, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounded to positive for the month - and the year - with gains every day excepting Wednesday, when the Dow shed another 82 points. However, the big days occurred on Monday, with a gain of 336 points, and Friday, when the Dow and other major averages put the dismal days of February and March mostly behind them, as the industrials skyrocketed 440 points.

Amazingly, all of this optimism came in spite of endless growling over President Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs and synchronized shouting - from the halls of congress and the canyons of lower Manhattan - about an impending trade war.

Friday's burst higher was credited largely to the impressive February non-farm payroll report, which was a blockbuster, showing 313,000 new jobs created and a 4.1% unemployment rate in the shortest and coldest month of the year, numbers nobody could claim as anything other than positive, the mere hint of good news now capable of sending the stock market back to dizzying, overvalued heights.

Indeed, the NASDAQ closed at an all-time high, though the other indices still have a way to go to exceed the marks set on January 26, though another week like this one, with gains of more than 2.8% on each of the individual indices, would smash the old records on the S&P 500, and get the Dow and NYSE Composite within spitting distance.

How likely that is to happen is a matter of some conjecture, as the FOMC meets March 20 and 21, and is expected to raise the federal funds rate another 25 basis points. This is seen as a headwind to continued expansion, but, with seven days to trade up to the release of the new "policy," the day-trading demons of the financial world will have plenty of time to ramp up and then deflate, choosing either to sell the news or buy into the continuing expansion narrative, even as the bull market passed the nine-year mark on Friday.

There's been no absence of volatility or fluctuation to start off 2018, with massive gains in January, huge losses in February, and possibly an evening out in March. To those who believe the bull is weary, standing on only two legs, the word is "so what," with the punditry claiming - rightly so - that bear markets only last, on average, 12-14 months. What they do not want to discuss is the depth of those bear markets, nor the time taken to get back the losses incurred.

The past two bears, in 2000-2001 and 2007-2009, are good cases in point, using the Dow as the barometer, even though, in the case of the 2000 crash, it was the NASDAQ that collapsed more than anything, which could again be the case should history repeat.

On December 1, 1999, the Dow closed at 11,497.12, and bottomed at 7,591.93 on September 1, 2002, making the duration of the bear market a full 34 months, or nearly three years. It wasn't until September of 2006 that the index surpassed the old high (11,679.07), a period of nearly seven years from peak to peak, a period which seemed like eternity for some. Of course, the bull had been underway since the bottom in '02, and finally apexed in October of '07, blowing through 14,000 before beginning to pull back. (For the record, it took the NASDAQ 13 years to exceed it's pre-crash 2000 highs.)

The ensuing collapse fell just short of catastrophic calamity, as the housing market went bust, along with its many derivative trades, taking all of corporate America down for the count, with the Dow closing at 6,547.05 on March 9, 2009, a date which could arguably be called the end of the '07-09 bear market (16 months) and the beginning of the Fed-inspired bull run to the present, now 114 months old, the second-longest expansion in market history, with gains from the bottom to the recent peak quadrupling the investment, truly an inspiring, incredible, nearly inexplicable accomplishment.

The average of the last two bear markets supplies a possible scenario. If the bear market began in February (which we humans will only know at some later date), the bear would run through March of 2020, or 25 months, the average length of the last two bear markets. It's at least worth consideration, because two years of losses might actually be enough time to clear the decks of much of the excess debt and mal-investment (and there's been lots of it) of the past nine years. Anything longer would be mostly unbearable, not only to Wall Street, but to the average Jane and Joe Americans, who have suffered enough at the start of this century. Likewise, anything shorter would look like another band-aid for the corrupt banking and political system of cronyism and back-handedness toward the taxpaying public.

The mammoth gains over the past nine years are exactly why one should give pause and contemplation to the continuance of the bull market. In market terms, one would be buying at the highs if one would plunge in today, and why would anybody who saw $100,000 turn into $400,000, or a million into four million, even consider adding to positions?

Perhaps the view that President Trump will single-handedly usher in a era of increased prosperity and profit with his blustering "Make America Great Again" push can partially explain any euphoria surrounding the currency of the stock market and it's possible that he might be on the right track, even though he faces many hurdles and obstacles, not the least of which stem from his own party, people in his own administration, opponents on the Democrat side of the aisle and skeptics on Wall Street.

But, it's been proven time and again, Wall Street will play along with Washington if it serves their interest, which is, succinctly, more profits, and higher stock prices. This pits the speculators, gamblers, and traders of the world against the entrenched government "deep state," which cannot stomach Mr. Trump and is prepared to do anything within its power to besmirch and/or impeach him, including sending the stock market into a tailspin, making fundamental analysis of stocks, bonds, and just about any other investment vehicle, not only an exercise in economics, but in politics, as well.

Economic data has shown a mixed, slightly positive picture; politicians are hell=bent on discrediting the president, and, behind it all, an ocean of debt created by the Fed and their cohort central banks needs to be unwound, brought under control, and eventually retired, an exercise only the Fed has recently begun, with the ECB and Bank of Japan too to follow. The wild card is China, where the PBOC has created literal cities built on nothing but debt and speculation.

All that makes for one tricky trade.

Dow Jones Industrial Average March Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
3/1/18	24,608.98	-420.22	-420.22
3/2/18	24,538.06	-70.92	-491.14
3/5/18	24,874.76	+336.70	-154.44
3/6/18	24,884.12	+9.36	-145.08
3/7/18	24,801.36	-82.76	-227.84
3/8/18	24,895.21	+93.85	-133.99
3/9/18	25,335.74	+440.53	+306.54

At the Close, Friday, March 9, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25,335.74, +440.53 (+1.77%)
NASDAQ: 7,560.81, +132.86 (+1.79%)
S&P 500: 2,786.57, +47.60 (+1.74%)
NYSE Composite: 12,918.82, +173.81 (+1.36%)

For the Week:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: +797.68 (+3.25%)
NASDAQ: +302.94 (+4.17%)
S&P 500: +95.32 (+3.54%)
NYSE Composite: +360.83 (+2.87%)

End The Fed; Hawkish Tone Sends Dow Below Key Level; Gold, Silver Mercilessly Hammered

While it may seem nothing but a triviality, Money Daily has been following the most recent renge on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) as it bounced its way between 17,500 and 18,000 since mid-March.

Today, the most widely-watched equity index in the world crossed below the lower end of that range, exclusively due to hawkish jawboning from various Federal Reserve operatives, who have spent the better part of the last seven years engaged in radical interest rate and money-creation policies, putting the entire global finacial system at risk.

To the uninformed masses - those 90-plus percent of the adult population who doesn't care or isn't bright enough to comprehend the ramifications of a global central banking system - life goes on. A debt-ridden, over-taxed population in the developed world plays giddily along as private banking interests push them one way or another. A few have escaped to off-the-grid lifestyles, some have prospered in the fiat money world of counterfeit currencies, but most are forced to take what is given, or rather, keep the small scraps the banks and governments leave on the floor after their orgy of inflation, deflation, false promises, fake data points and market mayhem and manipulation.

Thanks to the Fed and their fellow central bankers in Japan, Europe, and now China, the global population is left without price discovery mechanisms which make $30,000 cars with seven-year payment plans sound "affordable", homes which have skyrocketed in value due to artificially-low mortgage rates, fuel prices that are anything but transparent and/or stable and a general climate that continues to be counter to general principles of economy and thrift.

The Fed (and their central banker brethren) is pernicious, malevolent, deceitful, dishonest, greedy and carnivorous. They seek nothing but complete dominance without competition, a monopoly on the medium of exchange. Governments are more than willing to accept their bribery and thievery in order to retain feigned positions of power, selling out their constituents with nary a care toward the ultimate consequences of their actions.

Mandated to enact policies that promote full employment and stable prices, the Fed openly does neither, or, at best, adheres to their promises only as occasion allows, in fact promoting an inflation rate of two percent per year, which is anything but stable for prices.

So intent is the Fed on controlling every last aspect of financial activity, that they have undermined the best open markets of the world, in bonds, stocks, commodities and anything else they can get their greedy hands upon.

Markets no longer move on supply and demand or fundamental forces, but are solely and completely tethered to proclamations and idle talk of agents of the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan (BOJ), the People's Bank of China (PBOC), and the European Central Bank (ECB).

It's all rigged, all the time and readers are urged to do their own research into financial matters. Unless and until the fraud of banks and the agents of the Fed and other central banks are brought entirely to light there will be no financial freedom, only crony capitalism, fascist rhetoric and insane, unbalanced economic polices.

May the Farce Be With You:
S&P 500: 2,040.04, -7.59 (0.37%)
Dow: 17,435.40, -91.22 (0.52%)
NASDAQ: 4,712.53, -26.59 (0.56%)

Crude Oil 48.68 -0.20% Gold 1,255.70 -1.47% EUR/USD 1.1203 -0.12% 10-Yr Bond 1.85 -1.86% Corn 390.00 -2.38% Copper 2.07 -0.63% Silver 16.51 -3.63% Natural Gas 2.04 +1.75% Russell 2000 1,094.78 -0.74% VIX 16.33 +2.38% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4609 +0.09% USD/JPY 109.9550 -0.20%

Stocks, Oil Whacked Again; 10-Year Note at 1.86%; Yellen's Fed in Shambles

It's official.

The groundhog didn't see his shadow, and Janet Yellen didn't see the recession just ahead, proving, within a shadow of doubt, that animals have better sense than most humans.

At least in the case of furry rodents versus doctors of economics, the rodentia class is in a class all its own. Punxsutawney Phil, the most famous of ground hog prognosticators, came outside this morning and reassured everybody in the Northeast that the most mild winter in decades would continue, and, to boot, be short-lived.

By not seeing his shadow, Phil assuaged the assembled crowd that what remains of winter would be over within two weeks, rather than the usual six week span that extends nearly to the first day of Spring, March 20.

Despite this being a leap year, which adds a full day to the cruel month of February, residents in the most densely-populated area of the country seem to be settled in for a short stay on the chilly side.

In upstate New York, there is little to no snow on the ground. What remains are a few remnants of shoveled piles that take a little longer to melt, though even that should be gone by tomorrow, as temperatures from Buffalo to Albany are expected to approach sixty degrees on Wednesday.

Similar circumstances prevail throughout the Mid-Atlantic region and into New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Massachusetts. The milder-than-normal conditions have resulted in lower use of heating fuels such as oil and natural gas, both of which are hovering around decades-long lows.

As for the Federal Reserve and the captain of that sinking ship, Janet Yellen, she and her hench-fellows seem to be on the wrong side of economic history, considering that since their historic rate hike in mid-December, interest rates have gone in the opposite direction, the 10-year note today closing at 1.86%, as the winds of global deflation and tight labor conditions continue to push consumer demand and consumption lower and lower.

Compounding the complexity of the Fed's non-tenable situation are the twin engines of stocks and oil, both of which have hit stall speed in 2016. WTI crude close in New York within whispering distance of the $30 mark, while the major stock indices were battered into submission by a combination of reduced earnings capacity and a growing confidence gap from investors.

Even with last week's brave showing by the markets in the face of a 2015 fourth quarter that slipped to 0.7% growth, stocks were unable to regain the footing which took the Dow 400 points higher on Friday as the Bank of Japan endorsed negative interest rates on its treasury bonds extending though eight years.

Supposedly, cheap, easy money was good news for the stock market. However, with the BOJ cancelling a treasury auction today due to lack of interest (no pun intended) from selected participants, equity markets around the world backtracked towards the lows of January. Apparently, there aren't many out there who see it as a prudent idea to pay somebody to hold your money.

Negative interest rate policy, aka NIRP, is the death-knell of central bankers. Traditionally, banks paid OUT interest on savings, but, in this decade of upside-down economics, the glorious kings and queens of monetary policy are sticking to the belief that people are so afraid of losing what they've earned that they will pay to have the banks hold it for them.

Mattresses and shotguns are back in style, kids, but nobody seems to have told the central bankers. Everybody from simple savers to mega-millionaires are losing confidence in a clearly broken system, pulling their assets out and into cash, precious metals, gemstones, art, real estate, or other stores of value that have stood the test of time. The only buyers of government debt are governments, a condition which cannot be sustained long.

Truth be known, the Fed, the ECB, BOJ and PBOC are all aware of this condition and have yet to devise a strategy that will resolve the liquidity and solvency crunch with a minimum of pain. Pain will come to many, precisely those holding debt which cannot be repaid. Ideally, this epoch of economic history will see the end of central banking with fiat currencies and fractional reserves.

We may be within weeks or months of a global reset, a change in the nature of money which will tear at the fabric of society itself.

Stay tuned. This is only the middle of the show which started in 2008.

Today's crap shoot:
S&P 500: 1,903.03, -36.35 (1.87%)
Dow: 16,153.54, -295.64 (1.80%)
NASDAQ: 4,516.95, -103.42 (2.24%)

Crude Oil 30.02 -5.06% Gold 1,129.20 +0.11% EUR/USD 1.0920 +0.27% 10-Yr Bond 1.8640 -5.19% Corn 372.00 +0.20% Copper 2.05 -0.29% Silver 14.31 -0.26% Natural Gas 2.03 -5.81% Russell 2000 1,008.84 -2.28% VIX 21.98 +10.01% BATS 1000 20,356.76 -1.72% GBP/USD 1.4411 -0.10% USD/JPY 119.84

Stocks Open Week to Downside on China News, Continued Bond Selling

Stocks took heavy punishment to the mid-section, right from the opening bell, rallied midday, but eventually fell out of the ring late in the session.

Much of the distaste for equities came from China, where the Shanghai index had its worst day in four years and is in a bear market. The PBOC has openly declared war on speculation, seeking to tighten via overnight lending rates, a move that cannot be good for markets in the short term, but, long term, may hold some weight as a key to global recovery.

The Dow slipped as many as 248 points in the early going, nearly erasing all of its losses mid-afternoon on some very dovish comments by usually-hawkish Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, but finished well into the red zone on very late, but very spirited, trading.

The NASDAQ suffered its first four-day losing streak since November of 2011, which says a great deal about where the market has been and maybe even more about where it is going. The Dow and S&P closed lower for the third day in the last four, with the S&P closing below key support levels. The Dow Transports were monkey-hammered, suggesting that the primary trend has changed from bullish to bearish, which, if so, would be a huge development, though it's still too early to tell.

Between China liquidity concerns and a large sell-off in the 10-year note - hitting a high of 2.63 before settling back to 2.57 - the equity markets were whipsawed though the middle of the day.

Signs that the US economy is improving continue apace, with the Dallas Fed manufacturing index posting an impressive gain in the latest survey. Naturally, the market took this as another sign that the Fed would be backing off its bond purchases in the near future, so, despite being unabashedly positive economic news, the markets took it in exactly the opposite manner.

Volume was very high for a summer session, indicative of the heightened interest since the Fed announcement last week. Declining issues outnumbered advancing one by a 4:1 margin. New lows had a 10:1 advantage over new highs, the most since March of 2009, a significant development, indicating severe short-term weakness and - to the bulls - a potential buying opportunity

With the second quarter running down and Fed speakers dotting the landscape this week, it might be a good time for traders to relent, especially those on the short side. The major indices are well into correction territory and taking some profits off the table might not be a bad idea, with a short week just prior to earnings season. Markets close at 1:00 pm EDT on Wednesday, July 3, are closed for the 4th of July and will have a full - though not well-attended - session on July 5.

Any good trader and even some marginal ones, should have been able to book solid profits on the downside move from the prior two weeks and may want to reassess while the market gyrates through the end of the quarter and a holiday week.

The volatility of the past few weeks may subside somewhat, having moved sharply during that time, so taking a break in what is traditionally a time to do so, seems not only smart, but almost instinctive.

Dow 14,659.56, -139.84 (0.94%)
NASDAQ 3,320.76, -36.49 (1.09%)
S&P 500 1,573.09, -19.34 (1.21%)
NYSE Composite 8,892.02, -126.53 (1.40%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,980,708,750
NYSE Volume 5,304,444,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1306-5469
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 68-683
WTI crude oil: 95.18, +1.49
Gold: 1,277.10, -14.90
Silver: 19.49, -0.466

Trepidacious Trading in Uncertain market Environment

On a day in which most of the economic news was positive - or, could have been considered in that regard - the palpable fear that engulfed Wall Street was nothing short of astonishing.

Even though the People's Bank of China (PBOC) cut interest rates, along with the ECB, and the Bank of England announced a boost in their own version of quantitative easing, adding 50 billion pounds to their asset purchase program, stocks could not get out of their own way throughout a tense, thinly-traded, anxious session.

US data was mixed. The ADP private employment index registered a gain of 179,000 jobs in June, blowing away estimates of a gain of 105,000, but ISM Services declined from 53.7 in May to 52.1 in June, the lowest reading since January of 2010.

Must of the angst appears focused on Friday's non-farm payroll report from the BLS, which is expected to show job growth in June for the US of 100,000 net new jobs. Following May's poor showing of a mere 69,000 new jobs, investors were rightly skeptical of the ADP number, which last month showed a gain of 136,000 jobs, so the consensus is that ADP's figures are skewed to the upside by 50,000, at a minimum.

With the major indices trading at, or close to, their highest levels since the end of May, investors exercised caution ahead of tomorrow's potentially-volatile non-farm payroll number.

The odd occurrence of stocks actually slumping when central banks cut interest rates or offer looser standards is confounding and possibly a signal that the current short-term rally is close to completion. Stocks are trading at levels closer to the highs seen at the beginning of May than the lows experienced at the end of May.

Also adding to the general state of confusion is the advent of second quarter earnings, which will begin to come to market next week. There may be some thinking that this earnings season will not be as robust as prior ones, even though estimates have been lowered for many firms.

There's also the nagging feeling that nothing is really solved in Europe and in America, no meaningful legislative action will be taken with the presidential and congressional elections taking place within four months.

The market is very uneasy at present, and yesterday's - and today's - extreme reading of new highs to new lows may have signaled to some an interim market top.

Of course, everything hinges on tomorrow's jobs' data, which will be released prior to the opening bell, at 8:30 am EDT.

Dow 12,896.67, -47.15 (0.36%)
NASDAQ 2,976.12, +0.04 (0.00%)
S&P 500 1,367.58, -6.44 (0.47%)
NYSE Composite 7,838.39, -63.27 (0.80%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,326,294,125
NYSE Volume 2,925,787,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2494-3070
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 385-22
WTI crude oil: 87.22, -0.44
Gold: 1,609.40, -12.40
Silver: 27.67, -0.61