Thursday's trading was another typical banker-assisted positive close on US indices. Stocks continued their descent from Tuesday and Wednesday's losses at the open, but quickly rebounded into positive territory. This pattern has been a feature for the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ since the late 1980s, when the PPT or President's Working Group was created, buoying stocks when losses appeared to be overwhelming.
Free markets? Probably not now and not in the near future. The Fed can put its fingers on the scales at any time, frustrating short sellers but acting as an artificial booster rocket for stocks. While the blatant manipulation is nearly-universally disliked, holders of 401k or retirement funds find the benefit of a backstop beneficial to the health of their portfolios.
That's why fundamentals really haven't mattered for some time, and especially since the GFC of 2008. The Fed or their proxies step in and stop the losses in their tracks. It's not exactly fair or transparent, but it is effective.
Prior to Friday's opening bell, September's non-farm payroll data was released by the BLS, showing an increase of 136,000 jobs for the month, below expectations of 145,000. August payrolls were adjusted upward to 168,000. Due to July's low numbers, the three-month average for payroll additions between July, August and September fell to 119,000, representing the lowest since 2012.
The jobs report sends a clear signal that the economy is slowing, but not yet going in reverse. The weak September report paves the way for the Fed to cut another 25 basis points from the federal funds overnight lending rate. Mixed signals are being sent as this produces a "bad news is good news" condition, as weaker economic numbers push the Fed to continue lowering rates.
TGIF.
At the Close, Thursday, October 3, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 26,201.04, +122.42 (+0.47%)
NASDAQ: 7,872.27, +87.02 (+1.12%)
S&P 500: 2,910.63, +23.02 (+0.80%)
NYSE Composite: 12,685.77, +77.34 (+0.61%)
Showing posts with label September. Show all posts
Showing posts with label September. Show all posts
Friday, October 4, 2019
Wednesday, September 11, 2019
It's September 11
It's September 11.
Since this is a very solemn day in American life, there will be no economic or political analysis here. Just take a few moments and reflect upon what being an American means to you. Reflect upon what is important to you. Be honest with yourself. You may want to read what's below.
Recently, I was driving from upstate NY to Eastern Tennessee (moving... thank you, Andrew Cuomo). Watching all the cars and trucks moving up and down the highways, I thought, "all this law enforcement, laws, rules, regulations, restrictions, are bullshit. Look at all these people, traveling wherever they want, carrying whatever they please; there is no way the government can stop people from doing what they want, being free. There are just too many people. They can't control them all."
People need to stop being sheep, being herded, being told what to do. Unfortunately, the public school system has brought us to the brink, but, that was being said 50 years ago, when I was in high school. There are 330 million of us, a handful of them. Throw off the yoke of fear and the control net they throw over us via the media.
It takes a long time for individuals to awaken to the truth, but it can happen in an instant. The moment you shake off all the lies that have been told to you since you were a little kid is the moment you become free. Free to do as you please, without harming anybody else. If you want to farm, do it. If you want to weld, do it. Anything you want can be accomplished if you only have the will to start.
In the classic, "Think and Grow Rich," by Napoleon Hill, there is a great line which never fails:
Anyone who truly wants freedom can have it. Nobody needs to raise arms, fire a single bullet. All the power rests in the minds of the people, individually, and collectively.
At the Close, Tuesday, September 10, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 26,909.43, +73.92 (+0.28%)
NASDAQ: 8,084.16, -3.28 (-0.04%)
S&P 500: 2,979.39, +0.96 (+0.03%)
NYSE Composite: 12,993.96, +33.24 (+0.26%)
Since this is a very solemn day in American life, there will be no economic or political analysis here. Just take a few moments and reflect upon what being an American means to you. Reflect upon what is important to you. Be honest with yourself. You may want to read what's below.
Recently, I was driving from upstate NY to Eastern Tennessee (moving... thank you, Andrew Cuomo). Watching all the cars and trucks moving up and down the highways, I thought, "all this law enforcement, laws, rules, regulations, restrictions, are bullshit. Look at all these people, traveling wherever they want, carrying whatever they please; there is no way the government can stop people from doing what they want, being free. There are just too many people. They can't control them all."
People need to stop being sheep, being herded, being told what to do. Unfortunately, the public school system has brought us to the brink, but, that was being said 50 years ago, when I was in high school. There are 330 million of us, a handful of them. Throw off the yoke of fear and the control net they throw over us via the media.
It takes a long time for individuals to awaken to the truth, but it can happen in an instant. The moment you shake off all the lies that have been told to you since you were a little kid is the moment you become free. Free to do as you please, without harming anybody else. If you want to farm, do it. If you want to weld, do it. Anything you want can be accomplished if you only have the will to start.
In the classic, "Think and Grow Rich," by Napoleon Hill, there is a great line which never fails:
Whatever the mind of man can conceive and believe, it can achieve.
Anyone who truly wants freedom can have it. Nobody needs to raise arms, fire a single bullet. All the power rests in the minds of the people, individually, and collectively.
At the Close, Tuesday, September 10, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 26,909.43, +73.92 (+0.28%)
NASDAQ: 8,084.16, -3.28 (-0.04%)
S&P 500: 2,979.39, +0.96 (+0.03%)
NYSE Composite: 12,993.96, +33.24 (+0.26%)
Tuesday, September 3, 2019
Weekend Wrap: Stocks Rebound in Face of Coming Currency Crisis
Other than the idea that Chinese and US officials were "talking" about trade and tariffs, nothing much changed in the world of high finance during the week, though investors thought they heard the "all clear" whistle.
Major indices broke off a four-week losing streak, bounding higher by 2.5 to three precent over the course of the week, heading into the Labor Day holiday.
The end of August marks the unofficial end of summer, back to school activity, and a return from the idyllic Hamptons or other leisure locales of the Wall Street hard-liners, the big boys with big money who guide trades, firms and financial fates.
Over the holiday weekend, the US slapped on the promised tariffs on September 1, with China responding with some of their own on US imports. That ran in stark contrast to the trading sentiment from the week past and suggests that the gains may be fleeting.
As the opening approaches for the first trading day of September, US futures are sliding. Anticipation of easing tensions in the trade wars are fading fast, though the narrative that the trade and tariff foibles of Trump and Xi are the sole motivator for moving equities is likely a contrived one.
What really worries Wall Street and should concern anybody with a pension tied to a 401k or other stock market vehicle is the shaky state of global commerce. The World Bank, IMF, and pundits far and wide have been predicting a recession for well over a year. Though the timing of such a downturn is far from settled science, evidence continues to build. More than just recession concerns are deeper fears that central banks have run out of ammunition with which to save the world again.
Interest rates, long regarded as the primary tool of central banks to stave off natural downturns in the business cycle are already low and many negative, prompting unbelievers to portend the end of central bank monetary hegemony. While such calls for an impending end to the global financial scheme are almost always present, this time appears to hold some truth.
Fractional reserve lending of debt has impoverished the lower and middle classes, expanded wealth inequality, and may now be acting as a brake on the system as money movement is nearing stall speed. It's been nearly 50 years since President Nixon closed the gold window and set the world on a path of unbacked, floating currencies. The result has been a revolving bubble, boom-bust scenario, punctuated by massive counterfeiting by coordinated central banking interests, each successive round more severe than the last.
Considering the depth of the last crisis in 2007-2009, central banks are desperate to keep the financial plates spinning for as long as possible, because the next crisis may well be their last.
These prospects are not pretty for central banks, or, for that matter, anybody. However, change is always in the wind, and the wind is blowing with a hot breath.
2001 was a malinvestment correction. 2008 was a liquidity affair. 202---? will be a currency crisis that will shake the foundations of monetary policy.
At the Close, Friday, August 30, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 26,403.28, +41.08 (+0.16%)
NASDAQ: 7,962.88, -10.51 (-0.13%)
S&P 500: 2,926.46, +1.88 (+0.06%)
NYSE Composite: 12,736.88, +32.88 (+0.26%)
For the Week:
Dow: +774.38 (+3.02%)
NASDAQ: +211.12 (+2.72%)
S&P 500: +79.35 (+2.79%)
NYSE Composite: +320.43 (+2.58%)
Major indices broke off a four-week losing streak, bounding higher by 2.5 to three precent over the course of the week, heading into the Labor Day holiday.
The end of August marks the unofficial end of summer, back to school activity, and a return from the idyllic Hamptons or other leisure locales of the Wall Street hard-liners, the big boys with big money who guide trades, firms and financial fates.
Over the holiday weekend, the US slapped on the promised tariffs on September 1, with China responding with some of their own on US imports. That ran in stark contrast to the trading sentiment from the week past and suggests that the gains may be fleeting.
As the opening approaches for the first trading day of September, US futures are sliding. Anticipation of easing tensions in the trade wars are fading fast, though the narrative that the trade and tariff foibles of Trump and Xi are the sole motivator for moving equities is likely a contrived one.
What really worries Wall Street and should concern anybody with a pension tied to a 401k or other stock market vehicle is the shaky state of global commerce. The World Bank, IMF, and pundits far and wide have been predicting a recession for well over a year. Though the timing of such a downturn is far from settled science, evidence continues to build. More than just recession concerns are deeper fears that central banks have run out of ammunition with which to save the world again.
Interest rates, long regarded as the primary tool of central banks to stave off natural downturns in the business cycle are already low and many negative, prompting unbelievers to portend the end of central bank monetary hegemony. While such calls for an impending end to the global financial scheme are almost always present, this time appears to hold some truth.
Fractional reserve lending of debt has impoverished the lower and middle classes, expanded wealth inequality, and may now be acting as a brake on the system as money movement is nearing stall speed. It's been nearly 50 years since President Nixon closed the gold window and set the world on a path of unbacked, floating currencies. The result has been a revolving bubble, boom-bust scenario, punctuated by massive counterfeiting by coordinated central banking interests, each successive round more severe than the last.
Considering the depth of the last crisis in 2007-2009, central banks are desperate to keep the financial plates spinning for as long as possible, because the next crisis may well be their last.
These prospects are not pretty for central banks, or, for that matter, anybody. However, change is always in the wind, and the wind is blowing with a hot breath.
2001 was a malinvestment correction. 2008 was a liquidity affair. 202---? will be a currency crisis that will shake the foundations of monetary policy.
At the Close, Friday, August 30, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 26,403.28, +41.08 (+0.16%)
NASDAQ: 7,962.88, -10.51 (-0.13%)
S&P 500: 2,926.46, +1.88 (+0.06%)
NYSE Composite: 12,736.88, +32.88 (+0.26%)
For the Week:
Dow: +774.38 (+3.02%)
NASDAQ: +211.12 (+2.72%)
S&P 500: +79.35 (+2.79%)
NYSE Composite: +320.43 (+2.58%)
Wednesday, August 17, 2016
Stocks Flail About As Investors Ponder September Rate Hike False Flag
Pretty ugly. The Dow round-tripped about 120 points, ending the session slightly on the positive side.
Fed minutes were released at 2:00 pm EDT, and offered little insight. The word is that they're going to raise rates in September.
Nonsense. They've already seen what a rate hike did to stocks the last time. They're not going to take that chance, unless they want to see Hillary lose the election come November.
Today was all about flailing about in an overpriced environment.
Wednesday's Wash:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,573.94, +21.92 (0.12%)
NASDAQ
5,228.66, +1.55 (0.03%)
S&P 500
2,182.22, +4.07 (0.19%)
NYSE Composite
10,824.40, +14.66 (0.14%)
Fed minutes were released at 2:00 pm EDT, and offered little insight. The word is that they're going to raise rates in September.
Nonsense. They've already seen what a rate hike did to stocks the last time. They're not going to take that chance, unless they want to see Hillary lose the election come November.
Today was all about flailing about in an overpriced environment.
Wednesday's Wash:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,573.94, +21.92 (0.12%)
NASDAQ
5,228.66, +1.55 (0.03%)
S&P 500
2,182.22, +4.07 (0.19%)
NYSE Composite
10,824.40, +14.66 (0.14%)
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