Showing posts with label auto sales. Show all posts
Showing posts with label auto sales. Show all posts

Friday, September 15, 2017

Dow Posts New All-Time High; Retail Sales Miss, Inflation Higher In August

With a 45-point gain on Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new all-time closing high (22,203.48), putting an exclamation mark on what has been an incredibly fruitful week for investors.

With a small gain last Friday, the Dow has now gone five straight sessions without posting a loss. The blue chip average is up 405 points for the week (1.86%) and despite some discouraging data prior to Friday's open, it appears set to finish the week on a healthy note.

The data Friday morning that sent futures lower was a pickup in inflation according to the CPI figures for August, showing a 0.4% increase, due largely to a spike in retail gas prices and a 0.5% increase in the rent factor. On a year-over-year basis, the index is up 1.9%, closing in on the Federal Reserve's two percent target rate.

Retail sales were down 0.2% in August, with the largest contributor to the decline the drop in auto sales which slumped 1.6% for the month after being flat in July.

With inflation up slightly (and understandably) and sales down, the Fed will find itself once again in a box on rate increases and likely do nothing when the FOMC meets next week. Some mention of the winding down of their enormous, $4.1 trillion balance sheet is expected and that could move markets, although the Fed has been extremely cautious to commence the wind-down as it could spark inflation, a market selloff or other unforeseen consequences.

Nonetheless, stocks are poised for another solid week while the economy appears to be slowing gradually during the third quarter.

At the Close, Thursday, September 14, 2017:
Dow: 22,203.48, +45.30 (+0.20%)
NASDAQ: 6,429.08, -31.10 (-0.48%)
S&P 500: 2,495.62, -2.75 (-0.11%)
NYSE Composite: 12,062.62, +7.44 (+0.06%)

Thursday, August 17, 2017

Stocks Wracked On Poor Industrial Production Data, Led by Lower Auto Sales

When the opening bell rang today on Wall Street, there wasn't realistically any cause for alarm, except the data on Industrial Production, which rose 0.2% on expectations of 0.3%, driven lower on a 3.6% drop in the automotive sector.

Car sales have slowed sharply from the record pace in 2016. Production of motor vehicles and parts has fallen in five months this year, and have dropped five percent in the latest 12 months.

That may have been cause for alarm, though not to the extent to which the major indices took it. Stocks had their worst session overall since mid-March, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ falling below support at their respective 50-day moving averages.

Bond yields were slashed as investors rushed out of equities to the safety of credit. The 10-year note closed the day with a 2.18 handle and the 30-year bond the lowest in a week, at 2.78%.

Oil caught a weak-hand bid, pushing above $47/barrel, but not holding that level. Gold and silver, which had been bid up in prior sessions, held onto gains.

This is the second major loss in the last six session, which, if one is inclined to be seeking trends, could be one to watch. On the other hand, with the Fed having the market's back, continued weakness is considered unlikely.

It has been said that Wall Street is more of a casino than ever before. The past six or seven sessions are proving that the house doesn't always win.

At the Close, Thursday, August 17, 2017
Dow: 21,750.73, -274.14 (-1.24%)
NASDAQ 6,221.91, -123.19 (-1.94%)
S&P 500 2,430.01, -38.10 (-1.54%)
NYSE Composite: 11,712.72, -156.13 (-1.32%)

Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Stocks Erase Most of Monday's Gains; Dow Closes Down for the Quarter, Year

Well, that escalated quickly...

After booming on Monday, Tuesday's players must have had a case of buyer's regret, selling back 2/3rds of what was bid up just a day earlier, very odd, considering that the last trading day of the month usually ends up positive, due to "window dressing" by fund managers.

That did not happen today. In fact, the markets reversed course right at the open, but really accelerated the selling in the final hour of trading.

Reasons? The Fed? Mountains upon mountains of un-payable debt? Iran? Yellen? Bueller?

Tracking the foibles and fantasies of the Wall Street crowd on a daily basis can be a thankless task, especially under the conditions which are currently reigning over the market. Levels of uncertainty are reaching a fever pitch, between various conditions in Europe (Draghi's failing QE, Ukraine, Turkey tuning totalitarian, Greece), the Middle East (ISIS, Syria, Iran) or the troubles bourn at home in the US, ranging from gay upset in Indiana, crumbing infrastructure, fracking drillers facing bankruptcy, insolvency of college grads with high student debt loads (a catastrophe waiting to happen), chronic underemployment or a host of other nagging circumstances which don't add up to recovery after six years of waiting.

The good news is that the credit spigots are wide open, though many individuals, having been burned by financial institutions or failed investments in the past have been wary to expend much energy spending money they don't have on things they don't need. Credit card companies have been unduly generous of late, the number of 0% interest cards offered having swelled in recent months.

Additionally, auto loans and leases are becoming as easy to obtain as water from a faucet, but default rates are also rising as consumers continue to be tapped out on the road.

Gas prices are low, sings of Spring are everywhere, but somehow, the major indices - at least for today - are not feeling the love.

Something is wrong, but we're not going to wait around to find out what it is. Anyone who hasn't divorced his/herself, at least in some part, from the credit-debt-tax-cycle-slave-system is missing the proverbial boat, which may sail off into the horizon at any time.

Americans, especially older ones, are becoming more detached from the system as the system disappoints and disillusions many who have played and paid and are seeing their paltry incomes stagnate and savings threatened by seven years of a low-interest regime engineered by the Federal Reserve.

And, with markets closed on Friday, who exactly will be able to react to the March non-farm payroll data? At least tomorrow, ADP will issue their March jobs report, which mirrors the NFP report to a degree.

Making matters worse, the Dow Industrials closed the quarter lower than at the start of the year, the S&P and NASDAQ posting fractional gains (less than one percent) for the quarter and the year so far.

So much to ponder and so little time. Tax day is April 15. What fun!

Dow 17,776.12, -200.19 (-1.11%)
S&P 500 2,067.89, -18.35 (-0.88%)
NASDAQ 4,900.88, -46.56 (-0.94%)

Tuesday, February 4, 2014

Markets Pause After Monday's Pummeling; Stocks Bounce Is Feeble

When markets get roiled like they did on Monday, especially following four weeks in January of steady declines, the usual reaction is for investors to nibble at the edges, like rats who have been spooked by sprung traps on their coveted cheese.

The only data drop worth noting on the day was Factory Orders, which fell 1.5% in December, the most since July. Inventories of manufactured durable goods reached an all-time high for the series in December, to $387.9 billion, marking the fastest year-over-year inventory build in 6 months.

That same inventory build has been responsible in part for much of the two past GDP figures, from the third and fourth quarters of 2013, and, unless consumers come out of hiding soon, those inventories are going to sit and eventually be marked down, further stifling the Fed's efforts to re-inflate the economy, which continues to stall out at a moribund inflation rate well below two percent.

While lower costs for manufactured and consumer goods comes as pleasant news for individuals and small business, it works against the Fed's perverse mandate of "stable prices," which, in actuality, is defined in Fedspeak as "stably-increasing prices at a rate of at least two percent and preferably higher, stealing purchasing power from people, everywhere, all the time, while debasing the currency."

Since 2008, the Fed's playbook has been redesigned to include trick plays like ZIRP, QE, reverse-repos, re-hypothecation and other arcane financing stylings, most of which have had limited success. Now, with their implicit desire to end QE this year, the fruits of their laborious injections of trillions of dollars into the global economy are proving impotent as first, emerging markets are crushed, soon to be followed by developed markets, already occurring in Japan, where the Nikkei fell by more than 600 points overnight, and is clearly into "correction" territory.

While today's pause offered some relief for the bulls, the bears seem to be still in charge. Advances in early trading on the major indices were pared back throughout the session, the closing prices barely denting the declines of just Monday, to say nothing of the drops from January.

Everybody is going to get something of a clue Wednesday morning, when ADP releases its January private jobs report, a precursor to Friday's non-farm payroll data for January. Expectations are high that the US created 185,000 jobs in January, which would be a masterstroke of statistical wizardry, after the December reading of 74,000 jobs, sure to be revised higher.

Unless this January was both a statistical marvel and a reality-defying month in which auto sales and retail sales were well below estimates and blamed on the weather, the take-away is that while people were discouraged to brave the elements to shop, the very same weather encouraged job creation and the seeking of employment. The math does not match the reality. The truth is probable that while the weather was poor in some areas of the country, it was fine elsewhere, so the localized Northeast mindset likely has everything calculated improperly.

Whenever weather is blamed for anything - unless it's a localized event like a hurricane, flood or fires - one can be nearly certain the assumption is at least partially false, as will be proven in this case. Therefore, if Friday's jobs report blows the doors off estimates, one can assume the economy, based on auto and retail sales, is much weaker than propagandized, and that the BLS modeling, their birth/death assumptions and general massaging of data is flawed and should be disregarded.

Of course, a good-feeling jobs report will boost stocks, just as a continuation of the trend from December will send them even lower. Along with the weather as a culprit, other terms being bandied about include "correction" (a 10% decline off recent highs) and "bottom" (where stocks stop declining). Most of the analysts are saying the recent action is expected, following the massive gains of 2013, but that it is also temporary and investors should be looking at this as a buying opportunity.

Others have differing opinions, believing the US and global economy are contracting instead of expanding, that inflation is nowhere to be found and all of those corporate stock buybacks from the past three to four years are going to be painful to unwind. With corporations buying back their own stock at high prices, reducing the flow while increasing the price, what happens when they want to sell back into the market, at lower prices? The internal damage done to balance sheets will be dramatic and will only accelerate any downward pressure.

That's what investors have to look forward to in coming months, unless some economic miracle occurs. And, as we all are well aware, miracles don't usually just come along as needed.

Particularly telling, considering today's advance, was the new high-new low metric, which heavily favored new lows, indicating that today's advance was not broad-based nor technically supported. Additionally, late in the day, S&P downgraded Puerto Rico's debt to junk status, a move that was widely expected, but still a huge negative.

A disturbing trend is the slight rise in commodity prices. Corn, soybeans, wheat, crude oil and natural gas have been bid up recently, as money, needing a safe place to rest, may find a home in such staples, artificially raising prices, though the gains may (and probably should) prove to be arbitrary and temporary, a certain sign of naked speculation.

DOW 15,445.24, +72.44 (+0.47%)
NASDAQ 4,031.52, +34.56 (+0.86%)
S&P 1,755.20, +13.31 (+0.76%)
10-Yr Note 101.05, -0.10 (-0.10%) Yield: 2.63%
NASDAQ Volume 2.00 Bil
NYSE Volume 4.05 Bil
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3738-1977
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 49-111
WTI crude oil: 97.19, +0.76
Gold: 1,251.20, -8.70
Silver: 19.42, +0.013
Corn: 441.75, +6.00

Thursday, December 1, 2011

Stocks on Hold Ahead of November Non-Farm Payroll Data

As opposed to the risk on, risk off mantra so frequently used on up or down days, Thursday's markets could best be described as risk neutral.

Stocks criss-crossed the flat line in a narrow range, the Dow Jones Industrials never better than 17 points to the good in a range of less than 90 points.

Europe delivered no new information, though US data continued to roll in with some strength. The closely-watched ISM Index popped up to 52.7 in November after a reading of 50.8 in October.

Auto sales were strong in the month just ended, though General Motors (GM) lagged most rivals, showing a 6.9% increase from a year ago. Ford (F) said sales were up 13%, though all numbers reported paled by comparison to Chrysler's 45% increase from last November.

Recent sales and economic data continue to indicate that, despite the drag on the market from financial stocks and European worries, the US economy is rebounding quite strongly. Even though lawmakers in Washington are resembling the infamous "Gang That Couldn't Shoot Straight" with their continual posturing over tax and spending issues, Americans have taken matters into their own hands this holiday season and appear to be spending with gusto.

Whether the current momentum will be maintained is a matter to be worked out in the final three weeks of the holiday season and during January's traditional post-holiday discount period.

After Wednesday's hug upside move, traders seemed to have little interest in much of anything other than Friday's expected non-farm payroll data, due out one hour before the opening bell.

While ADP presaged the number with a solid 207,000 net private payroll increase on Wednesday, initial unemployment claims of 402,000 announced prior to Thursday's open threw a bit of cold water on investor optimism. Estimates range from 80,000 to 200,000 new jobs created in November, though the high end of the range is more an extrapolation from the ADP figures, which are often far afield from the BLS data.

Dow 12,020.03, -25.65 (0.21%)
NASDAQ 2,626.20, +5.86 (0.22%)
S&P 500 1,244.58, -2.38 (0.19%)
NYSE Composite 7,450.43, -34.07 (0.46%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,826,260,375
NYSE Volume 3,853,659,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2139-3481
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 144-76
WTI crude oil: 100.20, -0.16
Gold: 1,739.80, -10.50
Silver: 32.76, -0.05

Tuesday, March 3, 2009

Weary Market Stuck on Red

Stocks zig-zagged across the unchanged line on Tuesday, with investors assessing the damage from Monday's drama.

There were equal amounts of bargain-hunting and hand-wringing as the major indices registers small losses, but overall, there was no good new upon which to launch any meaningful rally.

Housing data - which crossed the wires at 10:00 am - sparked more selling, as the numbers were far worse than even the most dismal expectations. New home sales for January fell 7.7%; construction spending dropped 3.3% for the same period.

Following those figures were numbers from the major auto makers, which posted the worst sales declines since the economy began to really sour in September of 2008.

Compared to the same period one year ago, General Motors (GM) said their light-vehicle sales dropped 53% in February, while Ford's declined 48%, with Toyota posting a 40% drop.

Ford's car sales dropped 48%, with sport-utility vehicles off a whopping 71%. Toyota's car sales fell 36%; GM's were off 50%.

Apparently, traders were too worn out from Monday's rout to engage in yet another sell-off session.

Dow 6,726.02, -37.27 (0.55%)
NASDAQ 1,321.01, -1.84 (0.14%)
S&P 500 696.33, -4.49 (0.64%)
NYSE Composite 4,334.70, -26.28 (0.60%)


Declining issues outweighed advancers, 4274-2343. New lows continued to dominate over new highs, as investors continued shedding outright losers, 1512-15. Volume was still very high, despite the minor movement in the market.

NYSE Volume 1,825,373,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,368,833,000


Oil gained $1.50, to $41.65. Gold tumbled $26.40, to 913.60; silver continued to correct, down 36 cents, at $12.72.

In another note on what I have coined the Post-Government Era, Pat Buchanan recently penned an interestingly-titled essay in which he correctly points out just how brutally federal, state and local taxes are bearing down on working, productive Americans. Mr. Buchanan fails to cross the line - in Pitchfork Time - from conjecture to the outright rebellion the title suggests, placing most of the blame on President Obama's budget proposal rather than rightfully on the monstrous policy decisions at every level of government over the course of the past 30 years.

While Buchanan may be stirring up the spirits of rebellion, he's dead on when it comes to the issue of taxation. Americans are being taxed out of their jobs, homes and security, though this condition has been existent for many years.

The current economic climate has only recently awakened the slumbering US middle class, though by many accounts, it's already too late.

Dow components finished with 17 up and 13 down. All the major indices extended their nearly 12-year lows.