Stocks Slammed, Bonds Rally As Global Slowdown Fears Rise

Apple computer, maker of the iconic iPhone, was the cause of much of today's equity angst, as the tech giant warned that fourth quarter sales were likely to come in under revenue estimates.

Apple CEO Tim Cook issued a letter late Wednesday to investors advising that a slowdown in China sales would cause fourth quarter revenue to decline 4.8% year over year to $84 billion, well below analyst estimates. It's not that Apple is losing money - far from that - it's just not making as much as expected. Shares of Apple (AAPL) were down nearly 10% on the news, the largest one-day loss in six years.

Combined with a report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) that had December's PMI fall by the most since the financial crisis of 2008, stocks were on the defensive all day long. The report concluded that December PMI fell from 59.3 to 54.1, a descent of 5.4%. While anything over 50 is considered expansion, the falloff is considered to be a harbinger of worse data to come, as many participants in the survey blamed trade tensions with China as a leading cause for the slowdown.

Thus, the 1000+ point gain from December 26 was cut down by two-thirds on Thursday, just a week later, sending the Dow and other major indices closer to bear market territory once again.

January has gotten off to a horrible start, as though December's rout hadn't ended, which, of course, would be correct. Losses on stocks are only just beginning. By March of this year, expect stocks to be another 10-15% lower than where they stand today, and, even then, with signs of a global slowdown flashing red, a bottom won't likely be put in until the market has flushed out all of the weak hands and sent fund managers scurrying in even greater numbers to cash and bonds.

Presently, the treasuries are telling an interesting story about the economy. While the Federal Reserve insisted on raising rates four times in 2019, the bond market has expressed extreme displeasure, sending the yield on the 10-year note to 2.56%, down ten basis points just today, marking the lowest yield since January of last year. Additionally, short-maturity bills spiked (thanks to Fed hikes at the low end) with the one-year yielding 2.50%, as compared to 2.39% for the 2-year and 2.37% for the five-year note. Inversion in accelerating at the short end of the curve.

While this is traditionally not the pairs that signal recession, that distinction belonging to the 2s-10s spread, it is highly unusual. Bond traders are saying they don't want to issue longer-term, for fear that the economy will weaken as time progresses. The 30-year also was slammed lower, yielding 2.92%, down five basis points from yesterday.

2019 is looking to be an even worse year for equity investors, and a rout in the stock market could cause panic to spread to many diverse levels of economic activity. A recession within the next three to twelve months is looking more a certainty with each passing day.

Dow Jones Industrial Average January Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
1/2/19	23,346.24	+18.78	+18.78
1/3/19	22,686.22	-660.02	-641.24

At the Close, Thursday, January 3, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 22,686.22, -660.02 (-2.83%)
NASDAQ: 6,463.50, -202.43 (-3.04%)
S&P 500: 2,447.89, -62.14 (-2.48%)
NYSE Composite: 11,190.44, -193.09 (-1.70%)

Stocks Ignore Political Risks, China Regulations; Glint App Takes Gold Digital

Early morning in Europe and the Western Hemisphere were looking downright dreary to open the week's financial escapades, until buyers (central banks) emerged from the shadows (crypts), quickly erasing concerns over China's new rules to crimp the burgeoning shadow banking uprising and the failure of German Chancellor Angela Merkel to form a coalition government.

While futures were down sharply - especially on the European news - they were quickly corrected. China's markets quickly went from negative, staging a day-long rally, while European bourses were mostly positive and US stocks rallied sharply from the opening bell.

However, the euphoria flagged in the US as the session wore on, with stocks finishing off their highs of the day. Still, the results were much more cheerful than what might have happened if markets and investors were left alone, barring the blatant interventionism that seems to pervade trading in all markets.

The new paradigm is such that stocks cannot fail, but only go higher, valuations be damned, while gold and silver are routinely taken out to the woodshed for a weekly beating, such as occurred this morning, prior to the opening bell on Wall Street and throughout the day.

The setup isn't all so new at all. Since 2012, gold and silver have been mercilessly suppressed, to the point at which some staunch supporters are rethinking their love for shiny metals. This is exactly what central bankers wish, that wealth protectors give up and resign themselves to the fiat money regimen, but it is also precisely the time - if one is guided by sound investment stratagems - to begin loading up on what most would be shunning.

In that regard, London-based Glint launched a mobile app today that sets gold sailing into the digital age, offering Glintpay as a means by which to hold gold in a Swiss-based vault with the ability to spend one's holdings via a complementary MasterCard.

The app, which is available for download through the Apple App Store, works on iPhones and iPads using Apple's iOS operating system and is promising to provide quick and easy debit access to gold and a host of other currencies, with millions of locations worldwide accepting MasterCard.

How well the start-up will fare is an open question, but it does raise an interesting alternative to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, which have witnessed monumental growth over the past six months and continue to raise eyebrows in the conventional banking universe.

The world is at a crossroads in terms of currencies. Trust in the debt-slavery central bank system continues to wane in various places as the rise of cryptos offers a glimpse of a possible future and precious metal devotees cling to long-held beliefs in money that is backed by physical assets.

Currency events are historically long-winded affairs, taking years or decades in which to sort themselves out. The ongoing forays between fiat, crypto, and physical seems to have gained some momentum today.

Investors with an eye on the global financial landscape would be wise to hold some of each, allocating more toward the digital and physical as events warrant as old systems are dying and may have been dealt an unrecoverable blow during the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-09.

At the Close, Monday, November 20, 2017:
Dow: 23,430.33, +72.09 (+0.31%)
NASDAQ: 6,790.71, +7.92 (+0.12%)
S&P 500: 2,582.14, +3.29 (+0.13%)
NYSE Composite: 12,320.77, +17.88 (+0.15%)

Scary Stocks for Halloween, But Apple's Business Model May Be More Frightening

Stocks fell uniformly n Monday, for no apparent reason other than the usual causes, fear, caution, valuation.

With the major indices counting to hover around all-time highs, there's no doubt reason to maintain some degree of caution. In fact, if one were so disposed to selling at a profit, now, as the year winds into its final two months, might not be a bad time to do so, considering the tax angles for 2018.

While stocks are scary on the day before Halloween, perhaps one may really get tingles from Aaple's business model concerning cell phones. Here's a one-off demonstration by an admittedly older fellow:

Apple has a problem with its business model in that they have to keep selling essentially the same product over and over and over again, every two years or so (their imaginary product cycle) to conumers who are probably fiarly content with the model they currently own.

In other words, in order to maintain their high level of profitability, Apple has to sell new iPhones to current iPhone users every two years.

I am (well, was, when Steve Jobs ran the company) an ardent fan of Apple. In fact, I'm using a MacBook Pro to connect to the internet and compose this missive. Its from 2011, six years old, and still performs incredibly well, so, why hasn't Apple forced me to upgrade?

Different market, I guess.

Anyhow, not to get too deep into the weeds, the problem I see is that their business model, as currently constructed, is unsustainable. Anybody who thinks they need to upgrade their phone every two years is off their rocker. America was built on products that worked well and lasted a long time. Maytag washers, GE refrigerators, Ford trucks, etc.

If every company adopted Apple's business model of a 2-year product cycle, the average consumer would have been tapped out long ago.

Why don't they just install a kill switch which renders their phones inoperable after 24 months? Admittedly, I am not a big cell phone advocate. I use a 10-year-old flip phone, and very seldom, at that.

The author makes some good points. Apple should be scared about changing consumer preferences and habits, considering their iPhone creation is now ten years into its product cycle and one can only suppose that the original iPhone from 2007 probably still functions, albeit slower and with fewer bells and whistles than the current models.

A day approaches in which cell phones will be maxed out on power and abilities. That's when Apple's business plans hit the wall.

At the Close, Friday, October 30, 2017:
Dow: 23,340.28: -85.45 (-0.40%)
NASDAQ: 6,688.32, -2.30 (-0.19%)
S&P 500: 2,570.72, -8.24 (-0.40%)
NYSE Composite: 12,319.47, -46.97 (-0.39%)

With the Release of the Apple Watch, Have We Reached a Peak in Stocks and Stupidity?

Well, now, really, we all know the answer to the question posed in the headline, don't we?

Stocks are reaching extreme valuations, and, since the old adage, buy low, sell high always and everywhere prevails, right now might seem like as good a time as any to get the heck out of Dodge and cash in some of those high-fliers, if, that is, you still play the iStocks game on your iMac or iPhone.

Gold Apple watch $10,000 retail

Even id stocks have not reached their peaks, it's simple math and history to know that they will, at some point, and the downtrend will likely be abrupt. Or, the major indices could just meander along in a narrow downward channel over an extended period, like we had in 2000-2001, until the World Trade Center was blown up and collapsed. That's what most around at the time consider a market bottoming event, so, one does not want to be heavily invested when some kind of calamity shuts down the exchanges for a few days, or a week, or longer.

Besides trading at somewhat lofty valuations, stocks have also been trading on extremely thin volume for quite some time (this being the sixth anniversary of the 2009 bottom, that would be six years), which is also, generally speaking, a negative signal, though the pumpers at the Fed and central banks around the world have done a bang-up, jolly good job of keeping prices elevated while entire national economies are collapsing.

Some say that the markets reached a climax with the IPO of Alibaba (BABA), a dubious claim and an even more dubious event, now that allegations and proof has emerged that BABA's books were cooked by phony sales and the entirety of their public offering turned out to be nothing but a cash-out for Jack Ma and some of the top executives. We will never learn.

But, maybe it's not too late. Apple (AAPL) just had their big, big product roll-out of the new Apple Watch, an unwelcome and unnecessary accessory to the entire universe of iJunk gadgets floating around, and, beyond the watch's 18-hour battery life (huh? it's a watch, and as far as anyone can tell, there are still 24 hours in a day), price ($349 and up, all the way to the gold-plated $10,000 unit), and general uselessness, the Apple Watch may be just the ticket to grab on your way out of the Wall Street casino.

The Apple Watch does everything your iPhone does, except smaller, and you have to wear it, as a sign that you are a useless moron with excessive amounts of cash on hand with which you know not what to do, much like the major corporations in America, buying back their own stock at nose-bleed prices.

On the day, Apple's stock traded up to 129.57 (buy the rumor) prior to the release event, then fell as low as 125.06 (sell the news) as CEO Tim Cook showed off his company's latest gadget. To be fair, people are not impressed. The stock closed at 127.08, up "officially" 0.48 on the day, but, assuredly, this was not Apple's finest moment (that was 1984 when they brought out the Macintosh (Mac) computer).

Steve Jobs, bless his soul, turned over in his grave, but it's been rumored he did have a good laugh with Al Einstein and Tom Edison when they saw the new Apple Watch.

Peak Apple? Possibly.

Peak stocks? Maybe.

Peak Stupidity? We're already well past that.

Dow Jones 17,995.72, +138.94 (0.78%)
S&P 500 2,079.43, +8.17 (0.39%)
Nasdaq 4,942.44, +15.07 (0.31%)

Uncle Warren to the Rescue of Bank of America; Jobs Steps Down at Apple

Two luminaries of the corporate world made moves that affected the overall markets, but a couple of stocks in particular.

Late Wednesday, Apple (AAPL) founder and CEO, Steve Jobs, announced that he was, effective immediately stepping down as CEO of the company due to health reasons and will now take up duties as Chairman of the Board.

Jobs' contributions to computing and high tech in general are the stuff of legend. Not since the heyday of Thomas Edison has the world been so influenced by one man's innovations. Jobs was a pioneer in personal computing and communications, first, with the Apple I and II, then the Macintosh, and more recently, the creation of the iPod, iPhone and iPad.

While Jobs will still have a hand in the operation of the company he founded in Cupertino, California (where it is still headquartered today) in 1976, most of the day-to-day operations will be left to newly-named CEO, Tim Cook and his staff.

Today, amid a firestorm of controversy concerning the fiscal health of Bank of America, billionaire Warren Buffett stepped up and injected $5 billion into the bank via a private offering which will net one of the world's richest men a 6% dividend over five years.

Buffett's holding company, Berkshire Hathaway, also received warrants to buy 700 million shares of common stock at just over $7.14 per share, with an unusually long 10-year exercise period.

The deal answers the question of whether Bank of America (BAC) was indeed in need of additional liquidity with a resounding "yes." Otherwise, Buffett's offer would have been turned down, as it is somewhat expensive for the bank.

The deal really solves none of BofA's liquidity and solvency issues. They are highly-levered, beset on all sides by the mortgage mess that has evolved since their purchase of Countrywide Financial in 2008, and in need of funds to meet new capital requirements. A paltry $5 billion from a rich uncle isn't going to cut it, and Buffett's bold maneuver may turn out to be another bad bet. Buffett made similar deals at the height of the financial crisis, taking out stakes in Goldman Sachs (GS) and General Electric (GE).

Inital reactions to both events were highly-charged. Apple stock fell nearly 7% in after hours trading on Wednesday, but, by the market close on Thursday, the stock was only down 2.46, or less than 1%.

On the news of Buffett's investment, Bank of America stock spiked as high as 8.80, after closing Wednesday at 6.99. At the end of the Thursday session, most of the froth had been sold off, with the nation's largest bank by deposits closing at 7.65, nearly a 10% gain.

The broader market fared less well, putting an end to the three-day winning streak which began on Monday. Uncertainty over just what Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will say in his Friday morning speech at Jackson Hole had traders on the edge of their seats, with many deciding to take a wait-and-see position.

Bernanke is scheduled to give his keynote address at 10:00 am EDT.

On Friday morning, prior to the Chairman's speech, the government will announce its second estimate of second quarter GDP, which is expected to be revised down to 1.0% after the initial reading of 1.3%.

Most analysts are not expecting Bernanke to make any great policy pronouncements, though some are still clinging to hopes that he will announce another round of quantitative easing.

For the most part, traders were selling off positions in advance of the speech.

Dow 11,149.82, -170.89 (1.51%)
NASDAQ 2,419.63, -48.06 (1.95%)
S&P 500 1,159.27, -18.33 (1.56%)
NYSE Composite 7,149.67, -123.46 (1.70%)

In a broad retreat, declining issues outpaced advancers, 5044-1552. The NASDAQ had just eight (8) stocks making new highs, with 65 hitting new lows. Over at the NYSE, there were 14 new highs and 53 new lows. The combined total of 22 new highs and 118 new lows continues to signal risk to the downside. Volume was light.

NASDAQ Volume 1,812,493,625
NYSE Volume 5,741,944,000

Oil gained 14 cents, to $85.30. Gold, in a dramatic reversal, picked up $22.20, to $1773.50, but silver was the big winner, adding $1.39, to $41.08.

Despite Buffett's "calming effect" markets are still very shaky, as none of the issues which ignited the volatility of the past two weeks have been resolved. Bernanke's speech will likely only add some fuel to the fire, especially if, as many believe, he will not open the door to QE3. On top of all that, Wall Street is bracing for a water-logged Monday, as Hurricane Irene races along the US Eastern seaboard.

The outlook for days and weeks ahead is still quite uncertain.