Happy $100 Oil New Year

The new year began the same way the last one ended, with investors selling in earnest on fears of recession.

Make no mistake, the price of oil and gasoline at the pump will continue to drive the US economy over the edge and into recession. On Wednesday, traders took little time to drive the price of a barrel of crude to a high $100, backing off slightly to close the day at a record $99.62, a gain of $3.62.

Dow 13,043.96 -220.86; NASDAQ 2,609.63 -42.65; S&P 500 1,447.16 -21.20; NYSE Composite 9,647.50 Down 92.82

Contributing to declines on all indices on the first trading day of 2008 was the Institute of Supply Management's manufacturing index, which fell to 47.7 in December, a drop of 3.1 points from November's reading of 50.8. The number is particularly troubling since any reading below 50 indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector and that number is much further below even the most pessimistic forecasts.

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Notes from the December FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve were also made available in the afternoon, but did little to temper the bear's enthusiastic selling. The Fed Governors suggested that more rate cuts would almost certainly be needed in 2008 to shore up shaky markets and restore confidence to credit markets.

Volume was stronger than it has been in weeks, signaling that there is still no end to the selling and raising the possibility that new 52-week lows could be reached in short order.

Advancing issues were overwhelmed by decliners, 3952-2420, while new lows remained in control over new highs, 461-125.

Gold priced an incredible $22.00 higher, closing at $860.00. Silver added 37 cents to $15.29.

If there's anything to be read into today's trading, it is that 2008 is certainly not for the faint of heart. On the heels of a weak December, a dour January will only act to fuel fears of economic crisis and near-panic level selling.

NYSE Volume 3,452,640,750
NASDAQ Volume 2,095,550,125

Stocks Stumble at Year's End

Recap of 2007 Predictions and 2008 Forecast Follows Regular Report

On the final day of 2007, stocks continued doing what they have been accustomed to in the final 5 months - they sold off from open until close.

In a market devoid of conviction over the past two weeks, stocks slipped at the opening bell, recovered some ground in the afternoon, but collapsed again into the close. If November and December are any harbingers of what's ahead, 2008 looks to be shaping up as a very challenging environment for value investors.

Dow 13,264.82 -101.05; NASDAQ 2,652.28 -22.18; S&P 500 1,468.36 -10.13; NYSE Composite 9,740.32 -63.57

Looking at just the Dow, which closed at 13,930.01, the index finished up the final two months - usually among the best for investors - nearly 700 points lower, including a ghastly close of 12,743.44 on November 26, the first "official" day of the holiday season. The number and date were notable, marking a 7-month low for the blue chips.

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While the final close was an improvement, December still registered a loss of over 100 points for the entire month, as markets took a huge bounce off that Nov. 26 low, stabilized in the mid-13,000s, but relented over the final two weeks.

On the day, declining issues stood ahead of advancers, 3435-2983. New lows closed out the year by demolishing new highs, by a 511-101 score.

Both the advance-decline line and new highs-lows have been decidedly negative for the final two months, indicating nothing but trouble heading into the new year. Stocks may be more fairly valued than they were during the summer, but the mood of investors has been significantly shaken by a continued stream of bad news from housing and credit markets.

Commodities were nearly at a standstill on Monday, with oil losing 2 cents to close at $95.98, gold off $4.70 to $838.00 and silver higher by 3 cents to $14.92.

NYSE Volume 2,440,879,750
NASDAQ Volume 1,516,866,750

How I did in 2007

Taking a look back at my market predictions for 2007, I should give myself some kind of award, because I not only was superbly close at the 2007 finish, but also foresaw much of the range. While my crystal ball anticipated highs for the Dow (~16,000) that were far ahead of reality, I caught the downdraft in the second half correctly. My analysis of the diverse indices was spot on, with, as expected, the NASDAQ leading the way, followed by the Dow and then the S&P.

Here's what I said at the end of my article on December 29, 2006:

Expected gains are 7% on the Dow, 12% on the NASDAQ and 5% on the S&P 500 at year end, though the range, especially the lows, could be dramatic.

Here's the reality:
DJIA: 12/29/06 close: 12,463.15; 12/31/07 close: 13,264.82; +6.43%
NASDAQ: 12/29/06 close: 2415.29; 12/31/07 close: 2,652.28; +9.81%
S&P 500: 12/29/06 close: 1418.30; 12/31/07 close: 1,468.36; +3.53%

My commodities forecast was so far off (I liked oil, gold and silver lower or stable) I'm not going to even comment and, since my niche is stocks, I won't make predictions on commodities any more.

2008 Forecast

With the housing market in the most severe slump in over two decades and a wrenching credit crunch limiting the lending stature of major financial institutions, 2008 looks to be the year the excesses of Bush/Greenspan policies finally begin to be paid back.

The hands-off, loose credit conditions which held sway over the first six and a half years of the promising new millennium have given way to frightened markets, shocked investors and a slew of scary predictions for the US economy and the stock markets in 2008.

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To blame Bush entirely for the current distress would be missing the point completely. It was Greenspan's Fed policy in the early years of the administration - especially his 1% "emergency" federal funds rate in 2002 and 2003 that set the stage for the subprime meltdown and credit crises in the banking sector.

2007 saw the unwinding of the mortgage market and the packaged loans that were the bread and butter of hedge funds as well as established financial institutions. Once mortgage borrowers began to default in droves, these SIVs (structured investment vehicles) fell out of favor, many of them selling off at pennies on the dollar.

The 2007 wound down, we were witness to major American financial institutions like Merrill Lynch, CitiGroup and others being forced to sell assets to foreign concerns from the Middle and Far East to secure their vary survival.

The worst is yet to come, however, as more subprime and adjustable mortgages are due to reset in 2008, which is likely to spark another round of regrets and losses from the very same banks and financial companies.

In turn, the mistrust in credit markets will lead to lower overall activity, especially in Merger and Acquisition activity while strapped consumer finally feel the pinch as well from higher energy and food prices. The only prices falling will be those of houses and stocks.

Credit concerns and the housing slump will dominate headlines though the first six months of the year, giving way to new hope for a Democratic president later in the year. But, the damage already having been done, Bush and Company will turn over to their successors an economy if not in a recession, certainly close to one.

For the full year, it's difficult to see stocks and indices any higher in 2008 than where they are right now. Life will go on, but in a much tougher environment for many Americans. The natural cycle of boom-bust will see companies from all industries laying off workers. By the end of either the first quarter or second, the US economy will almost certainly be in recession. GDP growth will be no better than 1.5% for the year and may actually turn in a negative performance.

With a recession broadly defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, my money's on the 2nd and 3rd quarters being the worst as the Fed fights - to no avail - to fend off the inevitable.

Speaking of the Fed, it will be realized that they are somewhat impotent when it comes to using policy and rate changes to engender economic prosperity. Whatever the Fed does - and their most likely tack will be to lower rates to 3-3.5% - will be largely too little and too late.

There comes a point where pain must be spread around, and that point will occur most poignantly in the Spring and Summer of 2008.

My assessment of the year ahead is nothing short of dismal. Excesses must be wrung out and losses in US equities will be widespread. Profits will take a beating as consumer spending dries up and companies scramble to reorganize, downsize and redevelop.

The S&P 500 will lead the way lower, checking in at the end of 2008 with a 12% loss, though it's likely to be much worse during the Summer and into the fall. The Dow will end the year 9% lower, with the NASDAQ down 7%.

The mid-to-late-year losses will be more dramatic, however. Expect bottoms to be put in at roughly the 1230 level on the S&P, 11,120 on the Dow and 2250 on the NASDAQ. And even though markets may recover somewhat in the last quarter of 2008, it may take a while longer for investor confidence to return to markets. 2009 may just be the beginning of a long, slow tortuous recovery.

The US will not be the only country suffering. Europe, Japan, China and Japan will also be hard hit. Mostly spared will be resource-rich nations such as Canada, Russia and much of South America and the Middle East. Australia will muddle through, though they will still be dealing with an intense, decade-long drought.

Get ready. 2008 figures to offer a very bumpy ride for your money.

Housing Woes Weigh on Marginal Gains

The broken record that continues to skip at the passage... housing is down, housing is down, housing is down... damaged stocks again as 2007 drew to within one trading day of its conclusion.

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Stocks were stuck in a narrow range after initially lifting off to the highs of the day just minutes after the opening bell. However, when the November New Home Sales [PDF] showed a decline of 9%, down to 647,000, stocks sold off and spent the better part of the day hovering just below the break-even line.

Dow 13,365.87 +6.26; NASDAQ 2,674.46 +2.33; S&P 500 1,478.49 +2.12; NYSE Composite 9,803.87 +24.57

For the (holiday-shortened, 3 1/2 day) week, the Dow shed 85 points, the S&P lost 6 points, the NASDAQ was down 18, while the NYSE Composite ended 16 points higher.

On the day, declining issues bettered advancers by a narrow margin, 3352-3033. New lows once again thumped new highs, 434-105.

Commodities were mixed. Crude oil fell 62 cents to end the week at an even $96. Gold was boosted $10.90, to $842.70. Silver added 8 cents to $14.90.

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With just one more session remaining on Monday, Dec. 31, all major indices will - unless there's a dramatic crash on New Year's Eve day - show gains for the year, though all of the indices hit their highs in early August and again in October, with November registering as one of the worst on record and December producing a fairly flat performance.

Looking ahead into 2008, January almost certainly will be a lackluster month, setting the stage for what appears to be a challenging year for stocks and the general economy.

On Monday, we'll take a look back at my 2007 predictions and I'll offer my views on 2008.

NYSE Volume 2,350,111,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,270,277,125

Back to Selling Stocks

It could be year end tax selling. It could be fears of further deterioration in the banking sector. Maybe people are just taking profits after an unhealthy run-up through the Christmas holiday. Whatever it was, investors were selling stocks in bunches on Thursday, with only two days remaining in the trading year of 2007.

Dow 13,359.61 -192.08; NASDAQ 2,676.79 -47.62; S&P 500 1,476.27 -21.39; NYSE Composite 9,779.30 -114.85

Stocks gave back most of the gains achieved over the last three trading days - Dec. 21, 24 (half-session) and 26 - but there's a large gap between today's closing prices and 13,250 on the Dow. Markets hate uncertainty and gaps, which always get filled, and this 100-point gap n the Dow is certain to be filled soon.

The major drivers on the day were Goldman Sachs (GS) assessment of the banking industry, in which they generally hammered a few of their brethren (eating each other, a sure sign of bear markets) including CitiGroup (C), JP Morgan (JPM) and Merrill Lynch (MER).

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The Goldman Sachs note was especially savage concerning the prediction that CitiGroup (C) might lower its dividend by 40% and write down as much as $18.7 billion in the fourth quarter. CitiGroup closed down nearly 3% at 29.56.

From the tone and tenor of Goldman's analysis, the subprime and other credit concerns are far from resolved and will continue to drag on financial stocks and the general market at least through the first quarter of 2008, and likely longer.

Once again, all ten sectors finished in the red, after November Durable Goods Orders posted a 0.1% gain when analysts were expecting a 2% rise. Also weighing on the market was the assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.

Declining issues held an enormous 3-1 advantage over advancers, with 4902 on the downside and just 1493 posting gains. New lows continued their dominance over new highs, 376-145, as has been the case for the past two months with the exception of just two days in December. The persistence of new lows exceeding new highs has been an absolute sell signal throughout this period. Investors could not have expected a longer or better warning to get out of equities.
Oil continued to march ahead, gaining 65 cents to close at $96.62. Gold finished up $2.30 at $831.80, while silver dropped 2 cents to close at $14.82.

With the pallor cast over the street by Pakistani politics and the Goldman Sachs report, the holiday spirit has all but vanished. Friday could go either way, though a continuation of the bearish conditions would seem appropriate.

With US financial institutions having to sell off portions of themselves to foreign entities, somebody needs to sound the alarm. I've repeatedly warned that we may be on the cusp of a major financial disruption and I will reiterate that sentiment as often as necessary. If you are not already at least 30-50 in cash, money markets or precious metals, you are needlessly putting your money at risk.

While the major indices are all but certain to show gains for the year, they are going to be small, likely in the range of 5-8%.

NYSE Volume 2,322,153,250
NASDAQ Volume 1,405,128,625

Small Change on Slow Day

Stocks were barely budged on Wednesday, as investors took an extended hiatus following the Christmas holiday. Volume checked in with one of the lowest readings of the year.

Underpinning the narrowly upward movement were hopes that retailers would see something of a rebound in the days after Christmas, as holiday sales overall have been less-than-inspiring.

The most recent figures suggest that retailers saw a 3-4% increase over last year, though specific companies, particularly Target (TGT) have warned that same-store sales may have actually fallen for the post-Thanksgiving period.

It was likely a good thing that traders were mostly on the sidelines on Wall Street, with more bad news in the housing sector weighing on stocks. The Standard & Poor's/Case-Schiller home price index showed home prices declining for the 10% straight month. The October decline was the largest since 1991. The index tracks home prices in 10 metropolitan areas.

Dow 13,551.69 +2.36; NASDAQ 2,724.41 +10.91; S&P 500 1,497.66 +1.21; NYSE Composite 9,894.15 +20.67

Advancing issues narrowly edged decliners for the third straight session, 3366-2960. New lows retained their lead over new highs, however, 256-238. The high-low metric has stubbornly resisted rolling over in favor of the new highs, suggesting that any rally in stocks is going to be short-lived and devoid of breadth or depth.

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The specter of continuing calamities in the housing arena and the unwinding bank/credit crisis is aligning with a growing chorus of economists suggesting that a recession may be difficult to avoid in 2008.

The price of crude shot up another $1.84 on Wednesday, as the combination of lower US inventories and fears arising out of Turkish air strikes in Northern Iraq sent crude to a closing price of $95.97.

Gold also showed healthy gains, rising $13.00 to $829.50. Silver also was higher, up 18 cents to $14.84.

With just three more trading days remaining, 2007 is on track to record positive gains on all of the major indices, despite all of them being off their 52-week highs.

Looking ahead, though, investors are skeptical about 4th quarter profits in a variety of industries and worry that the weakness in housing could spill over into the general economy. While an unwinding of a 50+ month-long bull market would not be surprising, how far and for how long stocks fall is still a matter of considerable speculation, with the majority of analysts seeing moderate growth at best for the entirety of 2008 and some kind of recovery in 2009.

NYSE Volume 2,010,497,250
NASDAQ Volume 1,260,348,625