Stocks Gain on Deal, No Deal Momentum; Friday Looking to Close Out Good Week to the Upside; Mentions of AI in Quarterly Reports Boosts Share Price

No deal.

Oh, well, at least the Dow finished Thursday's session at a record closing high and Nvidia was down less than four points after disclosing first quarter 2026 results. Overall, a this was to be expected, with the totally fake media saying Iran and the U.S. were close to a final draft, which, for all intents and purposes, is an oxymoron. It's a draft, a framework. There's nothing final about it and that alone should have tipped off anybody who is fluent in the English language (about 8% of the U.S. population) that the whole thing was cooked up by the usual suspects on Wall Street and inside the Beltway.

Everybody else was fooled, again, and again and surely will be fooled the next time imminent peace or a resumption of the war is touted as imminent.

For the week, through Thursday’s close, the Dow is up 759 points, the NASDAQ has added only 68 points, and the S&P is up 37. Obviously, with a three-day weekend ahead, nobody wants to see losses on the Friday session, making Thursday evening an ideal time to announce that the Trump administration has agreed to award $1 billion to International Business Machines Corp. (BM) to build a foundry for producing quantum computing chips, part of a broad strategy to bolster US leadership in an emerging industry.

Yippie! The government investing in one of the Dow stocks. That is just so democratic and free market oriented that American taxpayers must be on board with this episode of Winning Big Business while the rest of America can just GFY. These continuing investments by the federal government into mega-corportions are nothing short of full-blown fascism, which, broadly defined, is the co-mingling of government with big business. Next thing you know, the Mango Mussolini will impose martial law, cancel elections (Why not? They don't work anyway.) and declare himself dictator for life.

Yes, you peons, GFY.

With that, less than an hour before Friday's opening bell, Dow futures are up 330 points, NASDAQ futures are ahead by 110, and S&P futures are higher by 28. Treasuries are taking a breather, with the 10-year yield down to 4.55% and the 30-year posing 5.08%. Regardless of the slight downturn in yields, gold and silver can't catch a bid, both down less than one percent Friday morning.

After the bell Thursday, these companies reported 1Q earnings:
Deckers (DECK) - Beat the Street, initially soared, pre-market down 1-2%
Workday (WDAY) - Tops earnings forecasts, cites AI as profit driver, stock up 6-7%
Ross Stores (ROST) - Solid quarter, shares up 4-5%
Lionsgate (LION) - Studio turns profitable, shares ahead 3-4%

Friday before the open:
BJ's Wholesale (BJ) - Hikes membership fees, profit up, shares down 3%
Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) - Appropriate stock symbol, earnings miss, mentions AI, stock up 7%

Everything is well positioned for another solid day of stock slinging. Happy Memorial Day, peons. GFY.

At the Close, Thursday, May 21, 2026:
Dow: 50,285.66, +276.31 (+0.55%)
NASDAQ: 26,293.10, +22.74 (+0.09%)
S&P 500: 7,445.72, +12.75 (+0.17%)
NYSE Composite: 23,127.69, +105.95 (+0.46%)

No Deal with Iran Sends Futures Lower, Oil Higher; Nvidia Fails to Impress; Walmart Slips, Ralph Lauren Soars; Bot Replacement Surgery Now a Concern

Based on some dubious reportage that Iran and the U.S. were near finalizing a peace "deal" Wednesday, the Dow Industrials shot up past 50,000, the NASDAQ gained nearly 400 points, the S&P ended a three-day losing steak with a 79 point gain, and WTI crude futures fell to a low of $97.36 per barrel.

In other words, nothing new.

Insider Washington and Wall Street continue to play this kind of Kabuki theater to move markets hither and fro while nothing actually changes day-to-day. The repetitive pattern of hope for a more permanent peace beyond the current ceasefire and fear that one side or the other will restart hostilities have become so predictable that they are now ingrained into the toolkits of portfolio managers and shrewd speculators.

There's money to be made on both sides of a trade and somebody's surely making it, most likely the usual suspects inside the Beltway and the huge brokerages in lower Manhattan. That's not to say that the blatant media propaganda machine is somehow evil or guilty of bad behavior, rather, it's readily apparent that just about everybody is willing to play the game and go along for the ride.

What used to be a market based on honest facts, fundamental calculations, and practical reasoning has taken on the worst features of a roulette wheel or crap shoot. For those who have followed markets for longer than the past few months, it's become tawdry and tiresome. There is no specialized skill required to make profitable trades. It's become as easy as buying the latest tech buzz or hottest ETF and riding the wave to prosperity without so much as knowing of what a certain stock or fund does. Simply buying an index fund at any level is almost assured to return a healthy profit in a short period of time. Stocks cannot be allowed to decline very much under these conditions because denting the narrative is off limits. Everybody goes along to get along.

Outside of the knee-jerk reactions to the tariff imposition on "liberation day" and the start of the military conflict in the Mideast, there hasn't been any kind of correction on the major indices in more than three years, a condition that seems unlikely to change any time soon.

After the smashing close Wednesday, Nvidia released earnings for the latest quarter, and, despite the usual hype and positive returns, investors appear content to take profits and buy back in on any dips. After all, the stock just made a new all-time high last week and was up more than 20% year-to-date, so why hold on when there are other trades available. The stock doesn't pay any reasonable dividend. Surely nobody is going to fret over missing out on the laughable dividend yield of 0.02% (yes, you read that right).

Also posting quarterly returns were Intuit (INTU) and Urban Outfitters (URBN), the former (INTU) dropping more than 16% after announcing layoffs of 17% of its workforce, the latter (URBN) losing about two percent pre-market after beating the street.

Thursday morning brings earnings numbers from the following:

Walmart (WMT) - Shares are off 2% or more pre-market after the retail giant reported stronger sales but warned that high gas prices would cause consumers to pull back.
John Deere (DE) - Earnings beat easily, but company sees farm sales slipping, stock down 2-3%
Advance Auto Parts (AAP) - The company reports best sales growth in five years, re-affirms forwad guidance, shares up 6-7%
Ralph Lauren (RL) - Retailer exceeds 2026 sales goals, boosts divident 10%, shares flying, up 12% pre-market

The latest results suggest that there is a bifurcated social structure, with premium consumers having no urge to cut back on anything (Ralph Lauren), but a stressed middle and lower class consumer that is pulling in the reins (Walmart) and fixing or repairing what they already own (Advance Auto).

The trend that began more than a year ago - the top 10% of earners carrying the retail load - is magnified under the current regime. Most Americans can barely make ends meet and are carry high debt loads. The top 10% are spending as they please, with no worries, though the emergence of AI into the equation may begin to change the dynamic. Right now, and for the foreseeable future, it's middle management and grunts being laid off, but more and more people with high-end skills - coders, lawyers, accountants - are feeling AI heat. The message, "learn to code" is being replaced by "learn to weld" as physical skills are more immune to AI replacement. It's the planners, thinkers, and tinkerers at the fringes that are now being targeted for bot replacement surgery, aka, layoffs, buyouts, and early retirement.

With te market set to open within half an hour, Dow futures are down 155, NASDAQ Futures off 170, and S&P slipping 29 points, all of which fell sharply when the prospective Iran-U.S. deal was revealed to be dead in the water. Precious metals are down as well, with gold and silver each dropping less than one percent. As expected, WTI crude oil futures are back up above $100/barrel.

Treasury yields are lower, with the 10-year at 4.57% and 30-year bonds at 5.12%.

Are you not entertained?

At the Close, Wednesday, May 20, 2026:
Dow: 50,009.35, +645.47 (+1.31%)
NASDAQ: 26,270.36, +399.65 (+1.54%)
S&P 500: 7,432.97, +79.36 (+1.08%)
NYSE Composite: 23,021.74, +224.07 (+0.98%)

Day-traders Rejoice as Market Turns in Predictable Ways; Stock Futures Higher; Oil Down; Interest Rates Remain Higher; 10-year 4.65%; 30-year 5.18%

Get ready.

Just in case anybody believed that three straight closes in the red on the S&P (down 150 points) was significant, consider the recent pullback nothing more than profit-taking by big moneybag holders of important stocks.

As the opening bell approaches, stock futures are flying higher, based on (choose one, multiple, or all)...

• Thomas Massie lost his primary in Kentucky
• Trump's Indian Ocean naval blockade intercepted more tankers
• What happens in China stays in China
• AI, baby!
• Interest rates are coming down (LOL)
• Nvidia's earnings after the close
• Inflation is only 3.5%
• Republicans will keep majorities in the House and Senate
• MAGA
• Trump gloating over primary wins

The root causes for stocks to accelerate into stock market heaven don't really matter. All that matters is the perception - as in the housing boom of 2006-07 - that stocks never go down. Or, at least they don't stay down for long.

Earlier this morning these companies reported first quarter results:

Target (TGT) - Huge top and bottom beats, stock down 3.5-4% pre-market
Lowe's (LOW) - Beats expectations, shares down 2%
TJX (TJX) - Earnings beat, soft outlook, shares higher by 3.5%
Hasbro (HAS) - In line or better, stock down 3% (up 18% YTD)
Analog Devices (ADI) - Tops estimates, upgrades outlook, down 1%

Stock futures are beating a path to an upside open. Dow futures are up 180; NASDAQ futures 200 points higher; S&P futures up 27. Gold and silver are posting gains, but everything is beginning to slip as the opening bell is lass than half an hour away. Crude oil is lower, at $101 and change. 10-year yields are at 4.65%. 30-year yields, 5.18. We are to believe those are stabilizing.

It's a day-trading paradise!

At the Close, Tuesday, May 19, 2026:
Dow: 49,363.88, -322.24 (-0.65%)
NASDAQ: 25,870.71, -220.03 (-0.84%)
S&P 500: 7,353.61, -49.44 (-0.67%)
NYSE Composite: 22,797.67, -102.90 (-0.45%)

President Trump's Inside Trading Is Criminal and Impeachable; Trump Warns Iran, Again, with Social Media; Americans Crushed by Inflation

President Trump issued his usual Monday morning threat to Iran in hopes that he and his cronies could make more money trading stocks and oil futures.

This behavior is completely undignified and, honestly, insulting to anybody with at least two brain cells to rub together.

President Trump deserves to be in prison, not in the White House. He is leading America to its ruin, likely by design, while looting the treasury and making billions via insider trades.

It was revealed yesterday that Trump's investment advisors made at least 3,700 trades in the first quarter of 2026 including companies the White House had touted or whose executives Trump dined with at the White House months ago. Trades were made in Nvidia, Microsoft, Oracle, Boeing, Intel, and many others. The complete filing can be viewed here. [PDF]

Traders considered the sheer number of trades to be outrageous, especially for a sitting president. The White House denied that the president had anything to do with the trading which is handled by an investment advisor at the Trump Organization.

It's apparent that President Trump is making loot from his own actions. Some of his trades were in Intel, the company that the U.S. government had taken a 10% equity position recently and which Trump had publicly praised, urging people to "buy Intel."

This kind of behavior is insidious and indicates that the president, who is likely to be impeached in 2027, cares more about his bank account that he does for American citizens who are being quickly reduced to peons by inflation and the Mideast situation which the president initiated on behalf of Israel. The likelihood of Republicans holding majorities in the Senate and House is slim to none. The party of sitting presidents has lost seats in the House in 18 of the last 20 midterm elections. Trump is setting himself up for failure, knowing full well that even if he is impeached, the consequences will be nothing more than a bad reputation and a slap on the wrist.

Trump has enough money to retain the best lawyers against any actions that may come in the near future, and, at 79 years and counting, he's probably not very concerned about jail time.

In addition to the outrageous number and dollar amounts of his trades, which amount to billions, the Trump family also operates companies in the crypto space, which Trump has openly touted to the general public. His sones, Donald Jr. and Eric, have enriched themselves in various crypto ventures based on reputation and alignment with the White House, leaving many loyal suckers investors holding the bag after the insiders cashed out.

Others close to the president, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who hold no official office but serve as the president's preferred negotiators and advisors, no doubt have benefitted from inside, advance knowledge of White House policy.

No proof is needed to publicly indict these miscreants. Their arrogant actions speak for themselves. U.S. courts of law will probably choose to sidestep any issues as the broken two-tiered justice system routinely avoids charging public officials for any wrongdoings, even the most obvious and egregious.

Congress is not to be overlooked. Insider trading on public policy has been widespread for decades. Most politicians at the federal level enter office as upper middle class "servants" and leave, decades later, as multi-millionaires. It's disturbing, mob-like behavior for which the general public pays a heavy price for trusting them in the first place.

Entering Tuesday's gala trading session, WTI crude oil traded above $104/barrel on Monday and is approaching that level again. Stock futures are lower, as are gold and silver (no surprise there). Yield on the 10-year note is 4.62% with the 30-year bond yielding 5.14%.

Nice con job operation. Be a shame if anything should happen to it.

At the Close, Monday, May 18, 2026:
Dow: 49,686.12, +159.95 (+0.32%)
NASDAQ: 26,090.73, -134.41 (-0.51%)
S&P 500: 7,403.05, -5.45 (-0.07%)
NYSE Composite: 22,900.57, +101.14 (+0.44%)

WEEKEND WRAP: American New Normal Emerging with $100 Crude Oil, $5.00 Gas, 4-5% Inflation, 5% Interest Rates and Volatile Stocks Near All-Time Highs

Following President Trump's rather fruitless trip to China and with zero resolution to condition in the Middle East, stock traders cashed out their options and sent stocks reeling on Friday, wiping out what looked to be another positive week on the maligned market for equities.

Also pertinent was the disdain for U.S. treasuries, especially on the long end with 30-year yields rocketing past five percent and 10-year yields spiking above 4.50%. Those represent starting points for Kevin Warsh's reign as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, starting June 1 and operationally serve as useful fodder for Trump's insistence for lower rates. Bond vigilantes are likely in broad disagreement, setting up some fireworks in the usually staid world of fixed income.

With oil flows still disrupted, the questioning public may query Big Oil and the government about why the U.S. exports oil at profit instead of serving the public interest by shoring up domestic supply, keeping the price of gas at the pump and in heating oil at sustainable levels. The cynical - and probably correct - answer is that the entities in control of U.S. energy supplies couldn’t care less about the needs of the citizenry.

Getting ever closer to a FU moment in the U.S., many patriotic serfs are gravitating away from the status quo, shedding political cover and moving closer to local and individual needs. Fiefdoms and regional warlords could become real things.

Last week's CPI and PPI readings were the worst in years, proving, once again, that central planners at the Fed and in the Treasury Department have their heads stuck firmly in the grips of their own anuses, a preferred position, it appears.

Moving on...

Stocks

Gains were completely wiped out by Friday's market dump, which looked very much like a rug-pull moment, but is not likely to be sustained. Wall Street, profitable on both sides of trades, does prefer gains over losses and all a deep dive does is put in place a rationale for buying the dip and sending stocks higher amid shouts from the Boaster-in-Chief about being the "hottest" (tell the truth, don't you hate when he says that?) economy in the world.

The week ahead will offer a piddling of dated first quarter results from suspect retailers and others. Since it's nearly June, these announcements will have little impact on current levels, as an economic shift is underway, but, here they are:

Monday: (before open) ReNew Power (RNW), Baidu (BIDU); (after close) Agilysis (AGYS)

Tuesday: (before open) Home Depot (HD), Vertiv (VRT); (after close) Toll Borthers (TOL), Red Robin (RRGB),

Wednesday: (before open) Target (TGT), Lowe's (LOW, TJX (TJX), Hasbro (HAS), Analog Devices (ADI); (after close) Nvidia (NVDA), Intuit (INTU), Urban Outfitters (URBN)

Thursday: (before open) Walmart (WMT), John Deere (DE), Advance Auto Parts (AAP), Ralph Lauren (RL); (after close) Deckers (DECK), Workday (WDAY), Ross Stores (ROST), Lionsgate (LION)

Friday: (before open) BJ's Wholesale (BJ), Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH)

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

The outlook for the week ahead is clouded, to say the least. The ancient adage, "sell in May and go away," may be appropriate.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
04/10/2026	3.67	3.69	3.70	3.69	3.69	3.72	3.70
04/17/2026	3.69	3.70	3.73	3.70	3.69	3.69	3.64
04/24/2026	3.69	3.72	3.71	3.69	3.69	3.71	3.67
05/01/2026	3.71	3.71	3.70	3.68	3.76	3.71	3.73
05/08/2026	3.71	3.70	3.68	3.69	3.75	3.74	3.75
05/15/2026	3.71	3.70	3.69	3.69	3.76	3.77	3.82

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
04/10/2026	3.81	3.80	3.94	4.12	4.31	4.89	4.91
04/17/2026	3.71	3.72	3.84	4.04	4.26	4.85	4.88
04/24/2026	3.78	3.80	3.92	4.10	4.31	4.88	4.91
05/01/2026	3.88	3.91	4.02	4.20	4.39	4.96	4.97
05/08/2026	3.90	3.92	4.02	4.19	4.38	4.93	4.95
05/15/2026	4.09	4.14	4.26	4.43	4.59	5.14	5.12

Interest rates (yields) shot straight up late this week, the continuation of a trend that began in early 2022, at the end of the covid fright and start of the Ukraine fiasco when the Federal Funds target rate had been slashed to near zero. The evolving global economy necessitated rising yields to slow runaway inflation and that trend will likely be exacerbated by continuation of military escapades and choking off of supply chains.

Amid a frightening and increasingly-polarized global economic oulook, lending money to the heavily-indebted U.S. government at any maturity longer than a year might raise the question of "return of equity" bayond the usual "return on equity."

At 10 years, a reasonable expectation might be in the range of 5.50-6.25% and beyond that for 30-year bonds, which may be nearing an extinction level event, precipitating the need for false-fronting "stablecoins" which are nothing more than currency chimeras and utterly worthless.

Rates sprung forward over the past week, with a spike of 19 basis points in 2-year notes, 21 on the 10-year and 17 on the 30-year sending spreads into the stratosphere, with 2s-10s at an even +50 and full spectrum topping out at a ghastly +141.

While certain borrowers may drool over the lavish boosts in yields, longer term trends suggest an unhappy ending with the journey to insolvency a minefield of failed policy and nervy speculation. For the U.S. and other debt-laden governments, the costs of servicing their bloated borrowings will outstrip all other expenditures, guaranteeing the ultimate default. Argentina has shown the way. Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Europe will precede the U.S. down that unhappy pathway.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141

Oil/Gas

WTI Crude Oil finished the week in New York at $101.16, higher substantially from last Friday’s New York closing price of $94.68, though still in the recent range of $90-110.

President Trump's wasted China visit late in the week sent stocks lower and oil prices higher. With no resolution in the Middle East, the stalemate between the U.S. and Iran may move in unanticipated directions. With Iran in control over the Strait of Hormuz and a U.S. naval blockade further out in the Golf of Oman and into the India Ocean, it should be expected that alternative routes will develop and they have, with Iran employing the Caspian Sea and rail routes east to Pakistan and China. Eventually, Iran has an upper hand, given that the number of oil tankers exiting the Persian Gulf outnumbers U.S. ships able to intercept them.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.50 last week and $4.48 this week, little changed. Americans increasingly are begrudgingly accepting their fate of higher gas prices, but are beginning to express displeasure with government policies, feeling the weight of their chains, so to speak. Intentioal or otherwise, the federal government and many states and localities are pressuring middle and lower-income families, stretching household budgets near breaking points. Unless the president changes course soon or congress gets off their lazy, overdeveloped rumps, the likelihood of mass civil disobedience increases.

In the meantime, Americans, having been through gas hikes and energy crises before, are adjusting and conserving wherever possible, though further increases in food and energy prices may be too much too bear

Prices in key states:

California (leader): $6.13 (-0.01)
Washington: $5.76 (+0.00)
Oklahoma (lowest): $3.95 (+0.03)
Florida: $3.17 (-0.25)
Illinois: $5.05 (+0.09)
Pennsylvania: $4.62 (-0.05)
New York: $4.58 (+0.03)
Maryland: $4.45 (-0.01)
Michigan: $4.83 (+0.12)
Texas: $3.92 (-0.11)
Georgia: $3.96 (-0.07)

On Sunday, May 17th, there are just four (5) states with average prices below $4.00 (Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Georgia, up from 4 last week, and 43 above the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.65) and Alaska ($4.26), four above $5 (California, Nevada, Washington, Oregon), and one above $6 (California). The Southeast has become the lowest region overall over the past week as the averaging right around $4.00 in places like Tennessee, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi.

Bitcoin (aka, Trash)

This week: $78,015.76
Last week: $80,800.68
2 weeks ago: $78,694.80
6 months ago: $90,089.49
One year ago: $103,298.00
Five years ago: $37,482.21

"Hodlers" of six months to a year are down sharply, with only deep thinkers like Michael Saylor keeping the faith. With the U.S. congress moving forward on the CLARITY act this past week, the tom-foolery approaches the highest level of clown world. Cynthia Lummis, junior senator from Wyoming, otherwise known as Cheneyland, leads the charge toward government sponsored CBDCs.

From Wikipedia:

Lummis graduated from the University of Wyoming with a Bachelor of Science degree in animal science in 1976 and a Bachelor of Science in biology in 1978. She graduated from the University of Wyoming with a Juris Doctor in 1985, and was on the dean's list. She worked as a student teacher at Rock River School in 1977.

The perfect choice to sponsor crypto legislation.

What the world needs is a new currency regime based on gold and silver, not vaporware cryptocurrencies. Guess which one the government favors most. The people operating the govenment are about as useful as an umbrella during a hurricane.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 59.75; last week: 58.68

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 4/17: $4,849.40
Gold price 4/24: $4,725.40
Gold price 5/1: $4,625.60
Gold price 5/8: $4,723.70
Gold price 5/15: $4,543.60

Silver price 4/17: $81.58
Silver price 4/24: $76.19
Silver price 5/1: $75.84
Silver price 5/8: $80.83
Silver price 5/15: $76.29

SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 4/17: $4,833.56
Gold 4/24: $4,709.27
Gold 5/1: $4,612.97
Gold 5/8: $4,714.90
Gold 5/15: $4,539.72

Silver: 4/17: $80.75
Silver 4/24: $75.63
Silver 5/1: $75.34
Silver 5/8: $80.35
Silver 5/15: $75.94

On Friday, with stocks hammered within the international geo-political stalemate, it made perfect sense for precious metals to take sizable losses. Actually, no. The LBMA/COMEX cabal complex continues operational, suppressing prices, albeit at higher levels than years prior. Taking everything into perspective, gold and silver may continue to be affected negatively if stocks continue to vacillate and national economies begin to falter into recession.

The alternative - converting to fiat - is not very attractive, though selling off part of one's stack for ready cash may prove to be prescient. On the other hand, precious metals are meant to be hedges against currency debasement and all manner of economic events. How one manages one's wealth all depends on personal perspectives, portfolio allocations, and investment horizons. To each his own, it seems, riding the waves in the economic lifeboats of choice.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	78.95	99.59	87.01	87.48
1 oz silver bar:	80.00	92.25	86.44	87.38
1 oz gold coin:	4736.77	4859.65	4776.06	4771.83
1 oz gold bar:	4716.01	4785.00	4742.79	4742.30

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) fell modestly, to $87.08, a decline of $1.59 from the May 10 price of $88.67 per troy ounce and within the recent range.

WEEKEND WRAP

An inclination to utter cynical or pessimistic phrases to describe current economic conditions may be a sign of extreme dissatisfaction and completely normal. Disruptions to the regular flow of goods, services and the normal functioning of national economies has been fomented by reckless and feckless leadership of Western nations, especially in the United States.

It's perfectly OK to occasionally utter "screw this" or "F them" in response to conditions created to subjugate the human race in favor of a handful of elitists with megalomaniacal intentions.

If so, you've got plenty of miserable company.

At the Close, Friday, May 15, 2026:
Dow: 49,526.17, -537.29 (-1.07%)
NASDAQ: 26,225.15, -410.08 (-1.54%)
S&P 500: 7,408.50, -92.74 (-1.24%)
NYSE Composite: 22,799.43, -302.42 (-1.31%)

For the Week:
Dow: -82.99 (-0.17%)
NASDAQ: -21.94 (-0.08%)
S&P 500: +9.57 (+0.13%)
NYSE Composite: -142.72 (-0.62%)
Dow Transports: -64.56 (-0.32%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Trump China Trip Produces Little in Terms of Resolution to Iran or Taiwan; Stock Market Sniffing Out America's Weaknesses; Oil over $100

Trump's China trip is over, with nothing substantial coming from it. There was some talk about a deal for China to order 200 planes from Boeing, and possibly as many as 750, though details were sketchy, like everything else Trump touches and touts as wins.

The trip was a PR stunt from the start and Wall Street has apparently sniffed it out and is in the process of selling the news after buying the rumor. The president brought an entourage of large tech company CEOs with him, an attempt to woo China towards more support for American companies breaking into the vast Chinese market. The effort seemed to go well on the surface, but beneath the sheen, nothing of consequence has been reported. It's likely that China was simply being polite to the U.S., rather than pressing hard on various issues.

China's president Xi did manage to sneak in some snark, suggesting that America was a declining nation. Trump scrambled to find a retort via social media, once again blaming Joe Biden and his administration for America's decline and stating once again that the U.S. is the "hottest" country on the planet. The rhetoric has grown cold and stale and fools nobody.

Thus, stocks are set to open Friday with a very downbeat tone and bond yields have broken out to the upside as investors demand more for their money.

Up until Thursday's closing bell, stocks were doing just swell. For the week, through Thursday, the Dow was up 454 points, the NASDAQ ahead by a whopping 388, with the S&P adding 102.

With options expiry on Friday, there's certain to be a good degree of volatility though nothing has really changed in the overall market structure or global geo-politics. The Strait of Hormuz remains a choke-point for oil. Ukraine unresolved, inflation headed higher in the U.S.

Yield on the 30-year bond has burned through the five percent line and the 10-year yield stands at 4.56%, suggesting that bond buyers are affirming the existence of much higher inflation in months ahead.

While the set-up for Friday looks threatening, with Dow futures down 435, NASDAQ futures off 495, S&P futures giving back 86 points, and WTI crude futures hitting $100 this morning, there isn't any apparent sign of a rug-pull moment, though everybody knows it's overdue. Insiders need to keep stocks rising, but there are only so many suckers and profit-taking may render any dip-buying a moot point.

At the Close, Thursday, May 14, 2026:
Dow: 50,063.46, +370.26 (+0.75%)
NASDAQ: 26,635.22, +232.88 (+0.88%)
S&P 500: 7,501.24, +56.99 (+0.77%)
NYSE Composite: 23,101.85, +128.29 (+0.56%)

Stocks Continue Higher Despite Inflation Terror; Trump's China Gambit a Ruse; Rug Pull or Maybe Not?

So much for Wall Street coming to its senses over inflation.

After Tuesday's CPI showed consumer inflation increasing at a 3.8% annual rate and Wednesday's April PPI shoving the inflation agenda further up the chain with this sobering comment from the BLS...

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 1.4 percent in April, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.7 percent in March and 0.6 percent in February. The April increase is the largest advance since rising 1.7 percent in March 2022. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 6.0 percent for the 12 months ended in April, the largest 12-month increase since moving up 6.4 percent in December 2022.

... stocks opened to the downside but continued rallying the rest of the session after the big money guys had a goo 15-minute laugh. Shorts, as usual, were carried out on stretchers after one of the more quintessential head fakes in recent days. While the Dow and NYSE Composite finished in the red, their hues were more like the blush of a pink rose than fire truck tone by the end of the session.

More and more money flowed into tech stocks with the NASDAQ and S&P indices posting record highs. The Shiller PE ended the day at 42.32.

There isn't even a hint of pullback or correction in the charts or the general optimism. Stocks have to go up. The stock market is about the only thing on which the president, Republicans, tech bros., and the MAGA folks can hang their hats. Everything else, from Iran to inflation, to employment has, or is about to go tits up. Despite the continuing destruction of the empire, stocks save the day, every day, and will be expected to do so until there comes a rug pull, or, possibly, forever.

With the 30-year bond yielding 5.03% for two days running and the 10-year note yield stuck at 4.46, the perception is that stocks have become essential to survival. Yields go up, bond prices go down. Investors are finally demanding consummate return on their long-term risk profiles. The only surprising thing about five percent on the 30-year is that it's taken so long to get there.

The U.S., via its best carnival barker's tweets and threats, on the surface appears to be doing just fine. A peek under the hood, so to speak, reveals busted pipes and a sputtering industrial motor that's low on oil and in need of massive repair. Major infrastructure in the U.S. is aging and hasn't been sufficiently upgraded in decades. Asian countries are advancing. The West, ever so slowly, is committing suicide by a thousand cuts.

As the opening bell approaches, the Washington/Wall Street narrative seems to be holding. After all, isn't the president in China, telling Xi Jinping and anybody within earshot what a great poker hand he's playing? Bluffing won't work with China... or Russia... or even Iran. There are a lot of undercurrents advancing on the stock con. The U.S. stopped issuing a public measure of the underground economy in the 1980s. This laughable article estimates it at five percent of GDP in the U.S. when it's probably more like 25%, especially considering the GDP numbers are largely government spending and full up on pork and bunk. During the prohibition era of the 1920s, the underground economy was larger than the "above-board" official economy.

Governments everywhere, at the local, state and federal level, need to institute more new taxes and raise rates on those that already exist to see just how compliant Americans might be. Sooner or later, milking the same cow without offering it better feed ends up dry well. It will give, right up until it doesn't.

Run more deficits, borrow more money, abuse the population. FAFO.

At the Close, Wednesday, May 13, 2026:
Dow: 49,693.20, -67.36 (-0.14%)
NASDAQ: 26,402.34, +314.14 (+1.20%)
S&P 500: 7,444.25, +43.29 (+0.58%)
NYSE Composite: 22,973.56, -41.79 (-0.18%)

Trump In China for PR Stunt; No Major Developments Expected; Stocks Reel as PPI is Highest in Three Years; Futures Tanking, Oil Rising

President Trump has arrived in Beijing Wednesday morning for his engagement with President Xi Jinping of China. The trip will be short, just two days - May 14 and 15 - with a loaded agenda. Among relevant issues the two leaders will discuss are the Iran war, the state of affairs concerning Taiwan, bi-lateral trade agreements, and a host of other tangential topics for discussion.

How anybody can take seriously a two-day "summit" stretches credulity to the breaking point. The usually-suspect American angle is to play up progress via tweets and TB coverage which will no doubt lean toward the positive. The last meeting between China and America's heads of state produced a tariff truce, which actually had Mr. Deal, President Trump, significantly backing off from a hardline stance.

One notable element is the U.S. delegation, including top executives from some of the most powerful - and mainly tech - U.S. companies.

The business delegation is supposed to include executives from Tesla (TSLA), Apple (AAPL), Boeing (BA), GE Aerospace (GE), Meta Platforms (META), BlackRock (BLK), Blackstone (BX), Micron (MU), Mastercard (MA), Qualcomm (QCOM), Visa (V), Cargill, Coherent (COHR) and Illumina (ILMN) in part or in whole. Cisco (CSCO) was invited but its CEO is not attending, along with NVIDIA (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang.

With Iran high on the Trump-Xi agenda, another conspiracy theory became conspiracy fact. Interesting article on climate change and weather modification used as an offensive weapon against Iran for years violating a long-standing climate treaty.

With Trump winging his way to talks, stock investors looked to April PPI, coming fast on the heels of Tuesday's CPI hot inflation reading of 3.8%. What they got from the BLS was an outright disaster.

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 1.4 percent in April, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.7 percent in March and 0.6 percent in February. The April increase is the largest advance since rising 1.7 percent in March 2022. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 6.0 percent for the 12 months ended in April, the largest 12-month increase since moving up 6.4 percent in December 2022.

Nearly 60 percent of the April rise in final demand prices can be attributed to a 1.2-percent advance in the index for final demand services. Prices for final demand goods moved up 2.0 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.6 percent in April, the largest advance since rising 0.6 percent in October 2025. For the 12 months ended in April, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 4.4 percent, the largest 12-month increase since jumping 4.5 percent in February 2023.

At the producer level, these price movements have been trending higher for months, though neither the Fed, the White House, or the major news media seem interested in reporting the galloping inflation facing U.S. consumers. However, Wall Street took notice, sending stock futures screaming lower on the release of the data.

With the opening bell less than an hour ahead, Dow futures were slashed 258 points, NASDAQ futures were up 63 points, but well off earlier highs, and S&P futures were beginning to tank, down a mere points, but trending lower.

Wall Street can manage to overlook or spin data in a myriad of ways, but it appears that few appreciate higher consumer prices and producer costs. While America heads for a Weimar moment, President Trump is doing nothing to alleviate the situation, preferring to put on a media show via a high-level confab with the greatest nemesis to the U.S.

Little, if anything is expected from the two-day visit as there were no advance preparations to speak of and the short time element suggests that Trump's visit - much like everything else the "peace president" cooks up - is nothing but a PR event.

Along with stock futures, bitcoin is headed lower Wednesday morning while WTI crude oil edges higher, sitting at $102/barrel. Precious metals are pretty much flat, with silver holding $86 and gold dropped below $4,680, but recovering.

Time to find solutions is running short for President Trump in hotspots like Iran and Ukraine. He continues to lose support of MAGA faithful and independents, unsurprising given his attitude and adventurous antics which have largely caused chaos around the world and rapidly-rising inflation in the United States. While Trump may continue to insist that the U.S. is the "hottest" country in the world, he would do himself a favor by not making that claim too loudly or too often because the American people have had it up to their eyeballs with a president that has broken campaign promises, enriched himself and his co-conspirators, and is making a mockery of presidential leadership.

If there's a trend developing at all, it is the American public's distaste turning to righteous anger against a president that was a lame duck the moment he won his second term of office and Wall Street is beginning to take notice.

At the Close, Tuesday, May 12, 2026:
Dow: 49,760.56, +56.09 (+0.11%)
NASDAQ: 26,088.20, -185.92 (-0.71%)
S&P 500: 7,400.96, -11.88 (-0.16%)
NYSE Composite: 23,015.35, +44.58 (+0.19%)

CPI Comes In Red Hot, Inflation Rising at 3.8% Annually; Trump, Republicans Likely to Lose Midterms, Won't Matter to Wall Street; Silver Breaks Out, $93 Next Target

U.S. midterm elections are November 3rd. That date deserves attention as the calendar puts us at less than six months away.

Individual winners and losers in the bi-annual popularity contest may not matter as much as which party will have a majority in the House and Senate, and, in the end it's one big uni-party, from a tactical perspective inside the D.C. beltway, the results offer more than just optics. Partisan politics being the preferred order of the U.S. system, policy will emerge from majority rule and chair positions on important committees.

According to reportage by The Conversation, the party holding the presidency has lost seats in 18 of the last 20 encounters, an eighty-year span beginning in 1946. For the MAGA cohort, this sends bad vibes which may result in Mr. Trump's third impeachment attempt by Democrats, though the most salient condition obtained from Republicans losing their razor-thin majority in the House is that any new or proposed legislation would likely be dead on arrival.

A flip in the House also neutralizes the Senate, no matter which party ends up with a majority. For U.S. business interests, this is a total win. Whenever official Washington goes into gridlock, the prospect of at least two years without government meddling into the affairs of companies large and small elicits loud howls of joy. If new highs on the stock market are a goal, vote Democrat!

The only times a sitting president's party gained seats were in 1998 (Clinton, +5) and 2002 (Bush, +8), back-to-back wins, one for each party. In those years, the presidential approval rating was exceedingly high. Clinton was at 66%, Bush at 63%. Since then, no president has polled higher than 45% heading into midterms (Obama, first term, 2010). For all the noise and clamor over the upcoming vote, it looks to be pretty much settled that Republicans are doomed. President Trump's most recent average approval rating is a meager 41% and the generic congressional vote favors Democrats over Republicans, 48.6%-42.6%.

Doomsday cometh.

Surprising nobody, the White House and the Republican election machinery is fully engaged toward reversing the trend, but it seems a fool’s errand. Unless economic and foreign policy conditions soon change radically, Democrats stand to turn the tables in November.

Shiller PE: 42.15

Roughly speaking, the S&P 500 would need to rise another 285 points in order for the Shiller PE to surpass the all-time high of 44.18. Given that the S&P is already up 567.34 points (8.29%) year-to-date one might assume that this particular "mother of all bubbles" would make the grade some time within the next few months.

The juggernaut that is the stock market seems to have no limit, no wall of worry to climb, and not much in the way of historical perspective. Because that record high occurred in December of 1999, market historians will note that in the first few months of 2000, the NASDAQ took an abrupt turn. The late 1990s and into the first three months of 2000 marked a period of rapid growth in U.S. technology stock prices, driven by speculation and heavy investment in startups with little to no profits.

Somewhat the same could be said of the current environment. Where the 1990s had the internet boom and dot-com stocks, the 2020s has embraced AI as the next great thing. Leading tech companies - Microsoft, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Google, Apple, et. al., are investing hundreds of billions of dollars in data centers, infrastructure, and power plants, bent on riding the crest of the AI wave.

There will be no stopping stocks reaching record after record over the next six months and probably further into 2027. Despite plenty of evidence that the U.S. economy is a running on fumes. Foreign policy under Trump has been an unmitigated disaster. Wall Street doesn't care, so long as more money is directed into stocks, ETFs, IRAs, retirement accounts, and mutual funds.

Inflation, as measured by the CPI, will fan the flames even more. Asset inflation always leads consumer inflation, and this time is no different. Tuesday morning, the BLS released April CPI. Here's what they said:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, after rising 0.9 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.8 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for energy rose 3.8 percent in April, accounting for over forty percent of the monthly all items increase. The shelter index also increased in April, rising 0.6 percent. The index for food increased 0.5 percent over the month as the index for food at home rose 0.7 percent and the index for food away from home increased 0.2 percent.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.4 percent in April. Indexes that increased over the month include household furnishings and operations, airline fares, personal care, apparel, and education. Conversely, the indexes for new vehicles, communication, and medical care were among the major indexes that decreased in April.

The all items index rose 3.8 percent for the 12 months ending April, after rising 3.3 percent for the 12 months ending March. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.8 percent over the year, following a 2.6 percent increase over the 12 months ending March. The energy index increased 17.9 percent for the 12 months ending April. The food index increased 3.2 percent over the last year.

The major damage from Trump's blustering and blundering in the Mid East, all at the behest of his pal, Bibi Netanyahu, hasn't even begun to be assessed. The knee-jerk reaction comes in the form of stock futures, which didn't skyrocket the moment the news was announced as they usually do, but barely budged. Some indication that Wall Street isn't exactly giddy over prospects for higher and higher consumer prices can be inferred and a mini-rally in gold and silver offers more evidence that the ongoing rally may be interrupted for a day or so.

Gold hit a one-month high on Monday, but silver was the real deal, making a breakout move over 80.70, the most recent high (April 17). Kitko marked the close in New York at 85.98, though other sources have it at 86.10. Either way, the move was expected and significant, pointing the silver price - as maligned and testy as it is - toward the next milestone, $93, and then, beyond. With the usually strong summer months in focus for precious metals, a slingshot move higher may now be in the cards. Both gold and silver sold off overnight, but th pair is rallying heading into the U.S. sessions.

As 9:00 am ET approached stock futures began moving higher, sending Dow futures marginally into positive territory. S&P futures remained subdued, down 20 points, while NASDAQ futures seek a pullback, down 218 heading toward the opening bell.

There were no big interests reporting earnings late Monday or early Tuesday, though hims|hers (HIMS), purveyors of questionable adult products like virility enhancers for men and perfumed soaps for women, went flaccid, dropping 16% pre-open on a first quarter earnings miss and discouraging guidance. Sorry, honey, not tonight.

Silver miner, First Majestic (AG), continued strong performance with an earnings beat and solid guidance. The stock is flat heading into the open. On an earnings beat and raised guidance, JD.com (JD) wins the morning, up about one percent in pre-market trading.

The CPI reading may only disrupt money flows for as little as a few hours or possibly a day or two, as PPI is the next hurdle, the April figures due out tomorrow.

Otherwise, buy the dip?

At the Close, Monday, May 11, 2026:
Dow: 49,704.47, +95.31 (+0.19%)
NASDAQ: 26,274.13, +27.05 (+0.10%)
S&P 500: 7,412.84, +13.91 (+0.19%)
NYSE Composite: 22,970.77, +28.62 (+0.12%)

WEEKEND WRAP: With Trump China Visit Imminent, Stocks Do Not Pause with Tech Titans Leading the Way; Gold and Silver Marked Higher; Oil Stuck in $90-$110 Range

More of the same in the week ending Friday, May 8.

Iran and the U.S. continue a standoff in the Middle East, neither side having made any reasonable concessions on an overall peace plan. Military assets in the region are plentiful, with the U.S. and Iran each shoring up offensive and defensive capabilities.

Stocks continued to rise overall, with the Magnificent 7 and chip stocks producing outsized gains. The NASDAQ composite index is up nearly 13% year-to-date. Significantly, the NASDAQ has gained more than 5,400 points, from 20,794.64 on April 30, to 26,247.08 at the close of trading May 8, a 26% rise.

The remarkable returns for speculative tech stocks, albeit during a period of geo-political turmoil, have startled the investing community and bring into question overall market structure and general stability. While naysayers question the wisdom of pricing stocks to perfection under any circumstances, nobody on the bullish side has shown any compulsion to take profits nor deny the extravagance of the current rally.

No matter the circumstances surrounding the incredible recent returns, it is undeniably one of the most opportunistic periods in stock market history, with institutional money leading and retail flows accelerating.

There appears to be no fear and no stoping the powerful rally. Prospects for peace in the Middle East continue to fuel optimism. Oil prices have been fluctuating between $90 and $110 for WTI crude oil, though high gas prices - above a national average of $4.50 in the U.S. - threaten long term viability of sustaining expensive oil. A solution, which may be on the horizon with President Trump's planned trip to China beginning May 14, could come in less than two weeks time. Pessimism is anchored in the continuation of the conflict and the doupoly of Iran's hold of the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. naval blockade in the Gulf region and into the Indian Ocean.

The week ahead could provide a breakthrough, though considering the U.S. military posture and Trump's hard-line attitude toward China, prospects are likely tempered that a lasting solution will be found within such a short period. Rather than seeking diplomatic solutions, Trump appears to be leaning more towards a "peace through strength" posture, which would nix any worthwhile agreement between the major global players, including China, Russia, the EU, and, to a lesser extent, India, which sits at the nexus of oil shipping lanes and need for continued importation of crude.

Stocks

The Shiller PE ratio (CAPE) stood at 42.05 (41.06 last week) at the close of trading Friday, a level second only to 44.19 reached at the peak of the dotcom spike in December 1999. The financial apparatus supporting such extremes is well aware of the incredible gap between price and value and will continue the crusade to ever more unsustainable levels. The game goes on. The financialization of the economy is nearly complete; the welfare/warfare state in control.

For those still drooling at the font of fiat, the week ahead will not offer much in terms of earnings reports, as the flow has slowed considerably over the past few weeks, most of the major companies having already posted first quarter results.

Monday: (before open) Barrick (B), Village Farms (VFF); (after close) hims|hers (HIMS), GoPro (GPRO)

Tuesday: (before open) First Majestic (AG), JD.com (JD); (after close) Karman Space & Defense (KRMN), Next Power (NXT)

Wednesday: (before open) Alibaba (BABA), Wix (WIX), eos (EOSE); (after close) Cisco (CSCO), Enovix (ENVX)

Thursday: (before open) Intuitive Machines (LUNR), Klarna (KLAR, Viking Cruise Lines (VIK), Yeti (YETI); (after close) Applied Materials (AMAT), Rumble (RUM)

Friday: (before open) Alaska Airlines (ALK), Suncrete (RMIX), PAVmed (PAVM), ARS Pharma (SPRY)

Outside of Trump's China visit, some of the more worthwhile data indicators include Tuesday's April CPI report from the BLS, expected to reflect the rising price of gas at the pump, and thus, inflation at the retail level. Leading off the week is the monthly report on existing home sales. PPI follows Tuesday's CPI numbers on Wednesday along with EIA crude oil and distillates weekly report. Thursday will feature unemployment claims and Import/Export prices prior to the open. Friday offers Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production figures for April. More from Trading View.

The question is not whether stocks will continue to rally, but how high they will go. The NASDAQ has slingshotted into the future with the S&P, and especially the Dow, lagging.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
04/03/2026	3.71	3.73	3.73	3.71	3.71	3.73	3.72
04/10/2026	3.67	3.69	3.70	3.69	3.69	3.72	3.70
04/17/2026	3.69	3.70	3.73	3.70	3.69	3.69	3.64
04/24/2026	3.69	3.72	3.71	3.69	3.69	3.71	3.67
05/01/2026	3.71	3.71	3.70	3.68	3.76	3.71	3.73
05/08/2026	3.71	3.70	3.68	3.69	3.75	3.74	3.75

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
04/03/2026	3.84	3.88	3.99	4.17	4.35	4.91	4.91
04/10/2026	3.81	3.80	3.94	4.12	4.31	4.89	4.91
04/17/2026	3.71	3.72	3.84	4.04	4.26	4.85	4.88
04/24/2026	3.78	3.80	3.92	4.10	4.31	4.88	4.91
05/01/2026	3.88	3.91	4.02	4.20	4.39	4.96	4.97
05/08/2026	3.90	3.92	4.02	4.19	4.38	4.93	4.95

Nothing much is happening in the treasury market except for the 30-year yield continuing to touch recent highs and threaten the five percent level. The Fed is doing its best to keep it below the 5% threshold. There shouldn't be much in the way of disruption in capital markets until Kevin Warsh is installed as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve. A full Senate vote is slated for Monday, May 11. Jerome Powell's term ends May 15. Procedural delays could still confuse matters, but Warsh is likely to receive the necessary votes to move forward.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124

Oil/Gas

WTI Crude Oil finished the week in New York at $94.68, down substantially from last Friday’s New York closing price of $102.50.

President Trump's China visit late in the week (May 14) is likely to have some significance in terms of oil and gas pricing. With anticipation for a breakthrough in the Middle East high, there is still a good deal of tension in the region and among larger players. The China visit may trigger a framework peace proposal, but tactics - especially those employed by the usually-intractable Trump - may keep the situation in the same on-and-off kind of flow.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.45 last week and $4.50 this week. Americans are trying to keep their cool over high gas prices, but a resolution to the war nobody wanted would go a long way to restore confidence. President Trump seems not to care much about suffering consumers. He continues to suggest that gas prices will come down, "like a rock" being his most commonly-used metaphor. He's losing ground, however. Impatient people polled Trump at just below 40% approval on the economy and foreign policy in recent polls.

Prices in key states:

California (leader): $6.14 (+0.04)
Washington: $5.76 (+0.10)
Oklahoma (lowest): $3.92 (+0.07)
Florida: $3.42 (+0.08)
Illinois: $4.96 (+0.03)
Pennsylvania: $4.67 (+0.15)
New York: $4.55 (+0.12)
Maryland: $4.46 (+0.20)
Michigan: $4.71 (-0.16)
Texas: $4.03 (+0.14)
Georgia: $4.03 (+0.20)

On Sunday, May 10th, there are just four (4) states with average prices below $4.00, down from 12 last week, and 44 above the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.63) and Alaska ($4.26), four above $5 (California, Nevada, Washington, Oregon), and one above $6 (California). The Midwest and Southeast have equalized over the past three weeks as the lowest-priced regions, with prices averaging roughly the same in states like South Dakota, Iowa and Kansas as compared to Tennessee, Georgia and Mississippi.

Bitcoin

This week: $80,800.68
Last week: $78,694.80
2 weeks ago: $77,941.15
6 months ago: $106,146.80
One year ago: $103,161.70
Five years ago: $46,725.23

Crypto is absolute trash, held mostly by whales, governments or ridiculous companies like Strategy (MSTR). It has not yet occurred to most "hodlers" that imaginary currencies are not even as useful as fiat. They live in a dream world.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 58.68; last week: 61.23

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 4/10: $4,771.00
Gold price 4/17: $4,849.40
Gold price 4/24: $4,725.40
Gold price 5/1: $4,625.60
Gold price 5/8: $4,723.70

Silver price 4/10: $76.03
Silver price 4/17: $81.58
Silver price 4/24: $76.19
Silver price 5/1: $75.84
Silver price 5/8: $80.83

SPOT:
(stockcharts.com)
Gold 4/10: $4,751.68
Gold 4/17: $4,833.56
Gold 4/24: $4,709.27
Gold 5/1: $4,612.97
Gold 5/8: $4,714.90

Silver 4/10: $75.95
Silver: 4/17: $80.75
Silver 4/24: $75.63
Silver 5/1: $75.34
Silver 5/8: $80.35

Solid week for both metals, with silver close to a breakout at any close above $80.75 in New York. This Friday's figure of $80.35 has it in range. Silver will continue to out-perform gold short term, though both appear to be headed higher with summer months generally positive for precious metals.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	79.96	99.99	87.99	85.80
1 oz silver bar:	84.00	104.50	91.93	88.98
1 oz gold coin:	4763.35	4961.00	4886.32	4909.00
1 oz gold bar:	4908.35	4971.00	4929.29	4919.83

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rose modestly, to $88.67, a gain of $2.44 from the May 3 price of $86.23 per troy ounce.

WEEKEND WRAP

Big gains on the NASDAQ are nothing new. Speculators crowd into tech names with regularity and generally are able to ride stock gains to fresh all-time highs before bailing. With so much experience backing their trades, there is as of yet no trigger for the eventual pullback. Markets have become dominated by heavy institutional flows, insider trades, and political leanings. It's not supposed to be that way, but traders have long ago given up on fundamentals as a price determinant and rely more on flows and momentum to time out trades in various sectors. Precious metals have experienced a paradigm shift recently, correlating with stocks in general and the S&P in particular.

Interesting times. A Chinese curse and a Westerized hope. Not a strategy.

At the Close, Friday, May 8, 2026
Dow: 49,609.16, +12.19 (+0.02%)
NASDAQ: 26,247.08, +440.88 (+1.71%)
S&P 500: 7,398.93, +61.82 (+0.84%)
NYSE Composite: 22,942.15, -69.16 (-0.30%)

For the Week:
Dow: +109.89 (+0.22%)
NASDAQ: +1132.64 (+4.51%)
S&P 500: +168.81 (+2.33%)
NYSE Composite: -99.00 (-0.43%)
Dow Transports: -399.46 (-1.94%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

April Non-Farm Payrolls: +115,000; Middle East Hostilities Escalate; Stocks Seek Another Week of Gains

As if it mattered amid the turmoil in the Middle East and the price of gas in the U.S. and Europe, Wall Street will briefly turn its attention to the regularly-overstated and ultimately revised lower Non-farm Payroll report issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for April.

As such, at 8:30 am ET, the BLS snet forth, in part, the news:

Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 115,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, transportation and warehousing, and retail trade. Federal government employment continued to decline.

and...

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised down by 23,000, from -133,000 to -156,000, and the change for March was revised up by 7,000, from +178,000 to +185,000. With these revisions, employment in February and March combined is 16,000 lower than previously reported.

Just dandy.

Stock futures, which were already geared up in a positive ramp, added more upside. Just before 9:00 am ET, Dow futures were ahead by 240 points, NASDAQ futures gained 245, and S&P futures added 45 points.

Likewise, precious metals were bid, with gold as high as $4,723.00 and silver arcing above $81 per ounce.

Meanwhile, the fog of war remained cloudy and thick with rhetoric as hostilities between the U.S. and Iran escalated to a near boiling point. Iran seized an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman. Three U.S. destroyers transited out of the Strait of Hormuz under heavy fire from Iranian defenses. According to President Trump, none of the U.S. ships suffered damage, retaliating against Iranian launch sites in the region.

Iran has charged the U.S. with violating the ceasefire; the U.S. denies Iran's claims. No matter the case, both sides have been actively deploying various weapons on the ground and in the waters off Iran's coast. The situation has become intensified with jets, drones, missiles, and ordnance producing explosions and damage, especially in the UAE, which has joined forces with Israel and the United States.

If there's a ceasefire at all, it appears to be under stress as both sides continue efforts to open or close down shipping lanes and employ defensive and offensive measures on limited targets. Israeli forces remain bogged down in southern Lebanon and have been eerily quiet of late. The situation remains, to say the least, fluid.

Oil prices have risen. WTI crude oil futures are trading in a range of $95-97.

Through Thursday's close, the Dow is up 97 points for the week, NASDAQ is 691, and the S&P is ahead by 107.

Friday's session looks to be as volatile as those preceding it this week and stocks could go either way, depending on how Middle East developments are perceived by trades and speculators. Considering how stocks have been trading since the star of the Iran war, now more than two months deep, the choice to stay long or short over the weekend is likely to be a major consideration.

At the Close, Thursday, May 7, 2026:
Dow: 49,596.97, -313.62 (-0.63%)
NASDAQ: 25,806.20, -32.75 (-0.13%)
S&P 500: 7,337.11, -28.01 (-0.38%)
NYSE Composite: 23,011.31, -273.08 (-1.17%)

Sick Medical System: Nearly Half of Americans Have High Blood Pressure or Diabetes or Both, Due to Roving Benchmarks; Oil Lower, Gold, Silver, Stocks are Up

Editor's Note: I recently had interaction with the medical community, something I've managed to avoid most of my 72 years on planet earth. While this time it turned out that I did need some medical attention, the condition is already being resolved, thanks to a realistic, savvy doctor at my clinic and no thanks to doctors at the local hospital. My interaction opened my eyes about the U.S. medical complex, Big Pharma firms, and hospital practices that routinely defraud patients, insurance providers and the government. I'll likely be sounding off about American medicine practices more often in this space. -- Fearless Rick

How is this even possible?

Nearly half of U.S. adults today have high blood pressure (48.1%, 119.9 million). This is defined as a systolic blood pressure greater than 130 mm Hg or a diastolic blood pressure greater than 80 mm Hg or are taking medication for high blood pressure.

Either half of the U.S. adult population is sick or the medical community has changed their methodology and benchmarks. It's the latter, and there's proof. Get together with a few friends. Look around. Which half of your group suffers from hypertension. According to rational analysis, in a group of 10 adults aged 25-65, less than three of them would be categorized as "ill."

High blood pressure, or, more accurately, stage 2 hypertension is commonly defined as a life-threatening condition. If you're one of those people who believe what doctors funded by Phizer, Merck, Bristol Myers Squibb, Ely Lilly or other pharmaceutical producers tell you, you're almost certain to become sicker and poorer taking their medicines.

Historical Blood Pressure Standards

According to a co-pilot AI search, During the 1960s, physicians often tolerated higher blood pressure readings than today. A reading that modern medicine classifies as Stage 2 hypertension, such as 160/100 mm Hg, was commonly accepted, especially in older adults, and treatment was usually reserved for more severe cases. Mild elevations, like 140/90 mmHg, were often labeled “high normal” or considered a natural consequence of aging, reflecting the belief that moderately elevated pressure could be beneficial for maintaining adequate blood flow.

Source: scienceinsights.org

A widely used clinical rule suggested that systolic pressure could be estimated as “100 plus age”, meaning a 60-year-old with a systolic pressure of 160 mmHg was not automatically treated. This approach contributed to the perception of “benign essential hypertension,” where moderately high blood pressure was thought to be compensatory rather than harmful.

(Editors Note: On Tuesday, my blood pressure was measured at 134/78. I'm 72, so the "age+100" rule suggests I'd be healthy at 172 over whatever. Some quacks doctors are telling me I'm diabetic because 130/80 is some kind of benchmark (It was lowered from 140/80 recently). They are, as my grandfather and father might have opined if they were alive today, FOS. My cousin Joyce calls doctors "professional guessers." BTW, I smoke, drink, and chase dangerous women. -- FR)

Here in 2026, stage 1 hypertension is defined as a blood pressure consistently between 130–139 mm Hg systolic or 80–89 mm Hg diastolic and is highly manageable with lifestyle changes and, in some cases, medication.

Stage 2 hypertension occurs when systolic blood pressure is 140 mmHg or higher, or diastolic pressure is 90 mmHg or higher, with only one of these numbers needing to be elevated to qualify (e.g., 145/82 mmHg counts as stage 2).

The medical community - famous for the "safe and effective" COVID vaccine which killed and injured millions - like all other government-big business-related entities, push a narrative designed to put as many people as possible on Big Pharma drugs when they actually don't need them. The same applies, in spades, for diabetes, the latest boogeyman disease that seldom shows symptoms until doctors get ahold of your blood and perform their voodoo tests.

If quality of life is important to you, avoid doctors and hospitals, eat a healthy diet, get some exercise and be your own doctor. Your body will tell when you're sick better than nay tests or doctors ever will.

The CDC has the gall to publish things like this:

Total diabetes: 40.1 million Estimated number of people with diagnosed or undiagnosed diabetes in the United States, 2023

12.0%: Estimated percentage of the U.S. population with diabetes

Diagnosed diabetes: 29.1 million Estimated number of people with diagnosed diabetes in the United States, including 28.8 million adults aged ≥18 years

Undiagnosed diabetes: 27.6% Estimated percentage of adults aged ≥18 years with diabetes who are undiagnosed, representing 11.0 million people

Prediabetes: 115.2 million Estimated number of U.S. adults aged ≥18 years with prediabetes

See the problem here? It's in that Undiagnosed diabetes reference of 27.6%. If 11.0 million people are 27.6% of the population over 18, that means the total adult population is 39.86 million, which is obviously wrong and makes a laughingstock of the assertion that 115.2 million (out of 39.86 million!) have Pre-diabetes, whatever that is. One would assume these are people that Big Pharma would like to be fully diabetic and eligible to buy their drugs.

Or, maybe the "total diabetes of 40.1 million, which is referenced as 12% of the U.S. population, is correct? That appears to be closer to the truth, about 334 million. adding it all up, 155.3 million, about 46.5% of all U.S. population falls into one of these categories.

With numbers as skewed and obviously incorrect as these, how can te CDC have any credibility at all? Like hypertension, diabetes is arcing toward 50% of the population. In a few years, it will be 60%, then higher, until almost everybody is on some kind of medication.

It's kind of insane. The U.S. medical system is broken. Most doctors and nurses with a conscience will tell you so.

The preceding monologue does not constitute medical advice. Everybody is different. When modern medicine practitioners recognize that fact of life, health care in the U.S. can begin to be reformed.

Getting on to stocks and money...

The Shiller PE ratio (CAPE) stands at 41.83, closing fast on the all-time record high of 44.19 (December 1999). Beyond bubble territory. There's almost no way to accurately describe the level of price/value dislocation.

Earnings reports continue to roll out at a slowed pace.

Walt Disney (DIS) reported Wednesday morning, prior to the open. Strong results for the first quarter of 2026 sent the stock soaring from 100.51 to close the session at 108.03, a gain of more than seven percent. The massive gains seen in many stocks upon earnings reports or news flow points up the gamey nature of U.S. markets. Just because a company has a solid quarter or launches some exciting, fresh venture, doesn't automatically make it more valuable, though in the "take no prisoners" current environment, with everybody chasing momentum and yield, these kinds of gains have become normalized. Stock buyback programs and heavy insider buying (and selling) also emulate a market that is highly compressed and triggered by headlines.

After Wednesday's close Applovin (APP), Snap Inc. (SNAP), Beyond Meat (BYND), Dutch Bros. (BROS), and Coinbase (COIN) reported. Of those, Snap Inc. saw the biggest decline, losing more than eight percent in pre-market trading. The stock is close to an all-time low around $6 per share, down from a high of $83 in 2021.

Beyond Meat (BYND) is now a $1 stock and will soon be in danger of delisting, losing 11% pre-market. It was briefly a $150 stock back in 2021. Apparently, Americans prefer real beef, even if it costs them $20 or $30 a pound.

Coffee chain Dutch Bros (BROS) is headed down more than six percent even after beating Street estimates.

Thursday, before the open, McDonald's (MCD) reported, and the outlook is not good. Despite an earnings beat, the stock is wallowing around one percent to the downside.

The Middle East situation continues to evolve in myriad ways. Iran continues to hold out for better terms regarding an end to the conflict. Meanwhile, the duopoly of Iran's guarding of the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. naval blockade in the Indian Ocean continue to keep oil flows at a trickle. Traders, however, are confident a solution is near, sending WTI crude down more than five percent to $90 a barrel.

Maverick entrepreneur and founder of CNN, Ted Turner, has passed away at the age of 87.

Stocks look to be headed even higher Thursday as futures are up across the board. Silver is up sharply, at $81.17 an ounce. Spot gold is at $4,738.90.

At the Close, Wednesday, May 6, 2026:
Dow: 49,910.59, +612.34 (+1.24%)
NASDAQ: 25,838.94, +512.82 (+2.02%)
S&P 500: 7,365.12, +105.90 (+1.46%)
NYSE Composite: 23,284.39, +275.72 (+1.20%)

Truth is Becoming Less Identifiable and Discernible as U.S. Narrative Focuses on Peace Negotiations with Iran; Stocks, Gold, Silver Rally; Oil Drops

Just a day after announcing "Project Freedom", President Trump announced that the operation designed to escort commercial ships safely through the Strait of Hormuz was abruptly ended.

The consensus opinion of military experts outside the Beltway Bullhorn media complex contends that the two ships that actually did transit the Strait successfully were aligned with the U.S. military, part of a program that allowed for military assets to be shipped on commercial ships. The revealing information was quickly scrubbed from most outlets reporting the operation.

CENTCOM issued no official confirmation, only a briefly worded statement.

According to CBS News:

The USS Truxtun and USS Mason, supported by Apache helicopters and other aircraft, faced a series of coordinated threats during the passage, the defense officials said. Iran launched small boats, missiles and drones against them in what officials described as a sustained barrage.

Despite the intensity of the attacks, neither U.S. vessel was struck.

Whether or not the events reported actually happened remains a matter of some speculation.

In any case, the story being told by the White House and military officials, similar to the "rescue" operation in Iran a few weeks ago, is what matters to the ongoing struggle in the Middle East, and to Wall Street and its headline-gorging algorithms.

Wednesday morning, stocks are being lifted by accounts that the U.S. and Iran are close to a deal, though Iranian sources have denied any such condition, saying, in part, "The negotiations are still facing the intransigent American approach and excessive demands."

Another Wednesday morning truth by President Trump offered this:

Assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is, perhaps, a big assumption, the already legendary Epic Fury will be at an end, and the highly effective Blockade will allow the Hormuz Strait to be OPEN TO ALL, including Iran. If they don’t agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP

With an assortment of diverse opinions coming from the likes of Secretary of State Marco Rubio and War Secretary Pete Hegseth, the truth may be just a little harder to discern than taking media reports (without video) at face value.

All this uncertainty leads to the ultimate goal, as Morpheus explains the matrix to Neo:

Stocks, in response to government propaganda, are set to soar Wednesday. The price of WTI crude oil on the COMEX has fallen below $100/barrel, down to a low of $88.66 earlier this morning. Gold ($4,684) and silver ($76.70) are also rallying sharply. Stock futures ar substantially higher.

At the Close, Tuesday, May 5, 2025:
Dow: 49,298.25, +356.35 (+0.73%)
NASDAQ: 25,326.13, +258.32 (+1.03%)
S&P 500: 7,259.22, +58.47 (+0.81%)
NYSE Composite: 23,008.67, +115.21 (+0.50%)

Stocks Open Week on Downside, Look to Rebound Tuesday as "Project Freedom" Seeks to Free Up Strait of Hormuz to Commercial Traffic

Stocks opened the trading week with a bit of a pullback, especially on the Dow Industrials, which was down more than one percent at the end of the day. That drop isn't likely to matter much, as Tuesday's open approaches with tensions escalating in the Middle East.

According to CENTCOM, two U.S. Navy destroyers have transited the Strait of Hormuz, allegedly suppressing a sustained assault by Iranian fast boats, missiles, and drones in the first true test of "Project Freedom", by which the U.S. plans to escort commercial ships through the strait into open, friendlier waters.

Initial reports being positive, stock futures are responding to the headlines. Dow futures are up 220 points, NASDAQ futures are ahead by 213, and S&P futures show a positive gain of 35 points a half hour before the opening bell.

On Monday, yield on the 30-year bond crept up to 5.05%, a danger signal to U.S. interests. Rising yields on the longest-duration treasuries is something the Trump administration would rather not contend with, as higher yields suggest insecurity in lending the to the U.S., already more than $38 trillion in debt.

Tuesday morning, yields on the 30-year are declining, close to an even 5.00%, but the danger still exists. Ten-year notes are yielding roughly 4.42%, though they came closer to the Mendoza line at 4.50% on Monday.

As far as "Project Freedom" is concerned, so far, so good, as CBS news is confirming the transit of Hormuz by the two Navy ships. Whether on not CBS reporting constitutes actual confirmation is questionable, as the network is usually little more than a stenographer for the federal government and military.

On the earnings front, reporting first quarter results Tuesday before the open:
Pfizer (PFE) - earnings beat, reaffirms guidance, stock up less than 1% in pre-market
PayPal (PYPL) - reports higher earnings and revenue, stock slides 9.5%
Marathon (MPC) - big beat on revenue, earnings, shares marginally higher
Shopify (SHOP) - revenue gains, profits slim, shares down 7%

Gold and silver are ripping higher as the U.S. cash open approaches, though both are well off last year's all-time highs. Bitcoin has streaked beyond $81,000, also well below 2025 highs of $124,000.

The oil must flow, WTI crude down $3 to $103 and change.

At the Close, Monday, May 4, 2026:
Dow: 48,941.90, -557.37 (-1.13%)
NASDAQ: 25,067.80, -46.64 (-0.19%)
S&P 500: 7,200.75, -29.37 (-0.41%)
NYSE Composite: 22,893.46, -147.68 (-0.64%)

WEEKEND WRAP: It's All Wrong and You're Just Beginning to Notice; Governments Are Killing Entire Economies: U.S. National Average Gas: $4.45

Government, always and everywhere, are obnoxious. President Trump is merely the most recent manifestation of bad behavior.

Whether the ruling powers of a nation, territory, tribe, state, city, county or any other superficial construct created by people with the power to create sovereignty be cloaked in the colors of democracy, socialism, communism, fascism or any other "ism", the goals are the same: to Thwart the will of the people, to steal their wealth and resources, and to enslave working men and women, their ilk, and their progeny.

The ultimate aim of government everywhere is to enrich those in positions of power by taxation and confiscation of other people's wealth via laws, regulations, tariffs and doctrines. They tax and regulate income, property, and resources endlessly, and by this means drain the wealth of entire populations gradually, but ultimately effectively.

Take the United States for example. At all levels, government taxes, borrows, and spends the wealth of the submissive population to further their own ends, pocketing a percentage here, a fee there, a regulation or tariff everywhere. As government has grown into a self-inflating, self-perpetuating behemoth, its minions, the so-called "public servants" are rewarded with salaries and benefits that far exceed those enjoyed by the public. They are paid to carry water for the elitist elected officials and do their bidding at the expense of the people they are ostensibly supposed to be serving.

They are all parasites, otherwise unemployable and worthless, having no skills other beyond those of common con men or paper-pushers and have the power of law and doctrine to enforce their will over those of the general public.

Any person living within the confines of government - and that would be every man, woman, and child in the world outside of aboriginal tribespeople in far away places - would better their lot in life with an understanding that the government is not there to protect them, nor to aid them in any manner, but to sublimate their will and use their labor and capital to further their own intentions.

One would not be blind to the government's reach into every aspect of their lives: how they live, what they buy, with whom they associate. One would be well-served to keep government at arm's length or further away from one's private affairs, of which government has no business. The goal of the empowered individual would be wise to be silent as to one's holdings or wealth, measured in property, well-being, and capacity to live free, to keep what is rightfully theirs, unencumbered and unknown to the government monstrosity.

It's a tough task that takes a man or woman's full life and effort, but it essential to ensure proper prosperity and liberty.

Americans and most everybody living within the modern constructs of advanced societies need to be aware that government will take a generally large percentage of one's wealth if allowed to do so. Ordinary people are cajoled and encouraged to engage in "wealth-building" in the institutionalized mechanisms of banking, stocks, bonds, annuities, insurance, and properties, all of which, beyond basic personal and real property, are unnecessary and a means by which the government taxes and confiscates wealth.

Avoidance of these accepted, annoying nuisances provides a pathway to economic and personal freedom.

Real property, collectibles of value, precious metals, and profitable private business operations are essential to well-being.

The tropes promoted by governments, media, and their salespeople are corrosive, subject to vast mis-valuation, and confiscatable.

Stocks

Who gets played?

The NASDAQ composite has finished positive in 19 of the past 23 sessions.

After having risen 13 out of 15 sessions from the end of March, the Dow Transportation Average finished negative seven of the last eight sessions.

Dip buyers were handsomely rewarded. Overall, it's a rotten game. Those who choose to play only at the margins, via buy and hold tactical strategies, are allowed a free ride on the stock market roller coaster. Stock specificity and allocation allotments are mild tolls of the passive investor, those whose only worry is having enough to last until their ultimate demise. Willingly trapped into the system, they facilitate the government's ultimate tax skimming superstructure.

Good doggies. Now, go lay down.

The Shiller PE ratio (CAPE) stood at 41.06 at the close of trading Friday, a level second only to the level of 44.19 reached at the peak of the dotcom spike in December 1999. The financial apparatus supporting such extremes is well aware of the incredible gap between price and value and will continue the crusade to ever more unsustainable levels. The game goes on. The financialization of the economy is nearly complete; the welfare/warfare state in control.

For those still drooling at the font of fiat, the week ahead will be loaded to the gills with earnings reports.

Monday: (before open) Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLH), Tyson (TSN), Berkshire-Hathaway (BRK.B); (after close) Pinterest (PINS), Transocean (RIG), Palantir (PLTR)

Tuesday: (before open) Pfizer (PFE), PayPal (PYPL), Marathon (MPC), Shopify (SHOP); (after close) AMC (AMC), Strategy (MSTR), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

Wednesday: (before open) KraftHeinz (KHC), Uber (UBER), CVS Health (CVS), Novo Nordisk (NVO), Walt Disney (DIS); (after close) Applovin (APP), Snap Inc. (SNAP), Beyond Meat (BYND), Dutch Bros. (BROS), Coinbase (COIN)

Thursday: (before open) McDonald's (MCD), Celsius (CELH); (after close) Affirm (AFRM), Opendoor (OPEN)

Friday: (before open) Enbridge (ENB), Wendy's (WEN)

Friday, May 8, the BLS trots out the latest made-up employment numbers with the April Non-farm Payroll Report (begging the question of what is farm employment looking like?).

Volatility continues, upside momentum is nearing conclusion. "Sell in May and Go Away" motif may be a suitable motif, urging profit-taking.

One final note: Spirit Airlines, with a business model catering to low-income fliers, has gone bankrupt. A lesson for us all.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
03/27/2026	3.74	3.73	3.72	3.73	3.72	3.75	3.77
04/03/2026	3.71	3.73	3.73	3.71	3.71	3.73	3.72
04/10/2026	3.67	3.69	3.70	3.69	3.69	3.72	3.70
04/17/2026	3.69	3.70	3.73	3.70	3.69	3.69	3.64
04/24/2026	3.69	3.72	3.71	3.69	3.69	3.71	3.67
05/01/2026	3.71	3.71	3.70	3.68	3.76	3.71	3.73

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
03/27/2026	3.88	3.94	4.06	4.25	4.44	4.99	4.98
04/03/2026	3.84	3.88	3.99	4.17	4.35	4.91	4.91
04/10/2026	3.81	3.80	3.94	4.12	4.31	4.89	4.91
04/17/2026	3.71	3.72	3.84	4.04	4.26	4.85	4.88
04/24/2026	3.78	3.80	3.92	4.10	4.31	4.88	4.91
05/01/2026	3.88	3.91	4.02	4.20	4.39	4.96	4.97

Now that Chairman Jerome Powell is done and gone after Wednesday's "stand down" on interest rate policy, the 30-year yield is getting darn close to five percent. Once it heads beyond that, some little dose of non-reality will be needed to "calm markets."

Any rational investor would likely believe the yield on 30-year paper loaned to a government that is nearly $40 trillion in debt and can't stop spending should be closer to eight percent, or, a loan not made. Due diligence matters, and the U.S. government is a deadbeat. In 30 years, it's likely to be even still dead and more beaten. Like everything else in fantasy finance, the 30-year is a trade, based solely on what the underlying security will bring in three to six months. Nobody in their rigt mind would hold government paper at under five percent for the duration.

Everything within the treasury yield curve is cockeyed. If one can get 3.71% risk-free on a one-month bill, why in the world risk anything for any longer unless the yield is significantly higher? The answer lies in the full spectrum spread from 30 days out to 30 years. It reached +126 this week, a nominal high, and appears to be pointing higher, so, when Kevin Warsh becomes the new Fed head and begins lowering rates to accommodate more spending by the government (Trump loves low rates (and inflation)), the spread will expand to probably well beyond 200 basis points (2.00%), which would satisfy the desires of both the government and the heavy money in the 30-year market. Government borrowing on the short end at less than three percent and 30-year bonds at 5.50% gets the juice flowing in exactly the right direction to grease both Wall Street and Federal .gov machinery at the same time. What a world.

BTW: the 2s-10s spread, this week at +51, has become meaningless untill it approaches zero. While it's not even close yet, the trend is your friend. Inversion by December appears baked into the yield cake.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126

Oil/Gas

WTI Crude Oil finished the week in New York at $102.50, just a little higher than last week's close of $94.88. Two weeks ago it was $84.00. The high this week was $110.09. If President Trump doesn't come to his senses soon and get the hell out of the Middle East, end the moronic, just-for-show "blockade", WTI crude will ramp up to $150.

Some people, including many prominent financial and political pundits, seem to believe that Trump cares about the fate of the Republican party in the November midterms and will do everything he can to lower the price of oil and gas in the U.S. to ensure majorities in the House and Senate.

This is a dangerous fallacy. Trump could care less about Republicans or Democrats or the House and Senate. He's a lame duck interested in padding his already grotesque bank account and little more. Getting the price of oil out of the $55-65 range was a priority and he's already done that. Keeping crude well above $100 and gas closer to $5.00 than to $3.50 is next on his agenda, paying off political dues to the people who matter, heavily invested in energy commodities and the companies that gouge serve American drivers.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.07 last week and $4.45 this week. Americans are getting lubed, good and hard, and without so much as a reach-around. Thank you President Bone-spurs.

Prices in key states:

California (leader): $6.10 (+0.16) Yippie! for the Golden State!
Washington: $5.66 (+0.22)
Oklahoma (lowest): $3.85 (+0.38)
Florida: $3.34 (+0.42)
Illinois: $4.93 (+0.62)
Pennsylvania: $4.52 (+0.37)
New York: $4.43 (+0.29)
Maryland: $4.26 (+0.27)
Michigan: $4.87 (+0.86)
Texas: $3.89 (+0.26)
Georgia: $3.83 (+0.24)

On Sunday, May 3rd, there are 13 states with average prices below $4.00, and 35 above the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.60, -0.04) and Alaska ($5.04, +0.29), and three above $5 (Nevada, Washington, Oregon), and one above $6 (California). The Midwest and Southeast have equalized over the past two weeks as the lowest-priced regions, with prices averaging roughly the same in states like South Dakota, Iowa and Kansas as opposed to Tennessee, Georgia and Mississippi.

Bitcoin

This week: $78,694.80
Last week: $77,941.15
2 weeks ago: $75,748.31
6 months ago: $106,774.80
One year ago: $95,816.94
Five years ago: $58,815.15

Crypto is absolute trash. Witness the dumping by the Trump family in their own meme coins and various business ventures in the space. Now would be a good time to sell, if you're dumb enough to have any.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 61.23; last week: 62.27

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 4/3: $4,702.70
Gold price 4/10: $4,771.00
Gold price 4/17: $4,849.40
Gold price 4/24: $4,725.40
Gold price 5/1: $4,625.60

Silver price 4/3: $73.17
Silver price 4/10: $76.03
Silver price 4/17: $81.58
Silver price 4/24: $76.19
Silver price 5/1: $75.84

SPOT:
(stockcharts.com)
Gold 4/3: $4,677.28
Gold 4/10: $4,751.68
Gold 4/17: $4,833.56
Gold 4/24: $4,709.27
Gold 5/1: $4,612.97

Silver 4/3: $73.02
Silver 4/10: $75.95
Silver: 4/17: $80.75
Silver 4/24: $75.63
Silver 5/1: $75.34

Stackers and bugs are still getting shafted by the COMEX/LBMA riggers, a condition that appears to be nearing an end, though the interested parties are sure to not go down without a fight of some significance. Many complaints are being lodged by individual sellers not getting anything near spot for their holdings at dealers. Many do better on eBay, though the 15-20% vig negates much of the profit.

The physical market is sending a clear signal to hold. Buying, near, at, or above spot is probably OK, given a long enough time horizon. Otherwise, buying scrap or items containing gold and silver, like watches, jewelry, silverware, trinkets, etc. at estate and garage sales is becoming a buyer's market if one knows what they're doing. People who are selling are either desperate or stupid or both, so buying well below spot on a meltdown value basis can be fun and extremely profitable. Getting the loot is just beginning to be a grand game.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	76.00	96.75	85.58	85.53
1 oz silver bar:	81.00	91.61	87.24	86.55
1 oz gold coin:	4687.60	4954.98	4795.08	4794.99
1 oz gold bar:	4804.98	4935.11	4844.05	4839.79

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) fell for a second straight week, to $86.23, a loss of $1.71 from the April 26 price of $87.94 per troy ounce.

WEEKEND WRAP

Governments suck, and the current ones, with tax rates, when one considers all degrees of the totality of income, property, sales, and hidden excise taxes (gas, phone, all kinds of services) well over 40-50% of one's gross income, suck very much harder. The insane levels of money going to government will bankrupt what's left of the middle class and begin to wreak havoc on the final 10% of top earners.

Inflation is about to explode higher. Keep what's yours. Let the government kill itself. Don’t go down with it.

At the Close, Friday, May 1, 2026:
Dow: 49,499.27, -152.87 (-0.31%)
NASDAQ: 25,114.44, +222.13 (+0.89%)
S&P 500: 7,230.12, +21.11 (+0.29%)
NYSE Composite: 23,041.15, -103.50 (-0.45%)

For the Week:
Dow: +268.56 (+0.55%)
NASDAQ: +277.84 (+1.12%)
S&P 500: +65.04 (+0.91%)
NYSE Composite: +106.60 (+0.46%)
Dow Transports: -273.98 (-1.41%)

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