Bears Bite Back: Two O'clock Dump

The technical, oversold rally of the past three weeks may be coming to an end. As the Dow met resistance in the 12,750 range (as mentioned here yesterday) for the second time on Wednesday, stocks trailed off during testimony before the Senate Banking Committee by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.

On Tuesday, the value of the US dollar vs. the Euro fell to its lowest level ever and continued to decline Wednesday, with the Euro pushing above $1.51 after Bernanke's comments failed to reassure that fighting inflation was a priority.

Essentially, Bernanke's approach is to keep the US economy from faltering into recession, regardless of the macro-economic implications. In simpler terms, US stocks will benefit more from exports as the value of the dollar falls. That's the game plan.

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All indices opened lower following more down-beat economic news. First, durable goods orders fell by 5.3% in January, and then the Institute of Supply Management's January manufacturing index offered a reading of 50.7, just above the break-even point, after posting a 48.4 number in December. Anything below 50 signals a contraction in manufacturing.

Reaching intra-day highs around the noon hour, stocks began a grinding descent until 2:00, when the S&P index slipped into the red. Like pebbles cascading down a woodland waterfall, the other indices followed. The NYSE Composite was next, followed by the Dow and the NASDAQ. By 2:03 all of the majors had turned negative but a tug-of-war between bulls and bears was just getting underway.

By day's end, buyers and sellers had battled to a draw, with the Dow and NASDAQ up, the S&P and Composite down. But clearly, much of the momentum created by last Friday's bogus announcement that a consortium of banks and financiers were working to rescue troubled monoline insurer Ambac Financial, has vaporized.

Dow 12,694.28 +9.36; NASDAQ 2,353.78 +8.79; S&P 500 1,380.03 -1.26; NYSE Composite 9,292.90 -9.90

Traders are eying the resistance levels and meteoric rise of the indices which have gained in the neighborhood of 8% over the past six weeks off the intraday lows of January 22-23.

Perhaps an even more emphatic argument for the bears can be made from the fact that advancing issues failed to push by decliners on Wednesday, with losers holding the edge, 3321-2910. New lows remained ahead of new highs, which, if the market was really showing resolve, should have flipped today, but failed to do so. There were 164 new lows to 130 new highs. The lows have held sway every day for four months straight, except for two days in December.

Sales of new homes dropped 2.8% from December, to an annual rate of 588,000, the third consecutive monthly decline. According to the Commerce Department report, the median price of a new home fell to $216,000 in January, down 15% from a year ago.

The double whammy for real estate - lower prices and slower sales - expresses just how deep the slump in housing really is. While some stock-picking pundits were saying the bottom in stocks was already in (Jan. 22-23) this week, the message from home buyers and sellers was clear: housing woes are far from over and may be getting even worse.

Crude prices settled $1.31 lower at $99.57 per barrel after hitting an all-time intraday high of $102.08. Gold rocketed to another all-time record close, finishing up $12.10, to $960.00. Silver added 49 cents to $19.33, slicing completely through the $18 level in just three days total.

Lest we forget, today is the one-year anniversary of the Chinese stock market contagion and Alan Greenspan's "recession" comment, which was the precursor and early warning sign of the market's August reversal.

NYSE Volume 3,773,681,750
NASDAQ Volume 2,165,846,500

An indication of the relative strength of stocks, here are the top ten Dow stocks for 2008 (after close of trading 2/26):

01) Up 8.1%. WMT
02) Up 7.3%. DD
03) Up 7.0%. HD
04) Up 5.8%. IBM
05) Up 5.5%. AA
06) Up 3.5%. BAC
07) Up 1.9%. DIS
08) Up 1.0%. CAT
09) Up 0.5%. PFE
10) Up 0.2%. JPM

Fully Detached Markets Ignore News, Post New Gains

The January Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 1.0% month-over-month, compared to the expected rise of 0.4%. That leaves PPI up 7.4% y/y, the highest level since October 1981 and PPI ex-food and energy up 2.3%.

In response to the alarming PPI figures, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said the danger the U.S. economy will weaken is a bigger worry than higher inflation and the Fed is ready to do what it needs to respond.

The Fed governors have reached new levels of financial hilarity. Let's keep the money flowing, even if a raw chicken costs $15 and a gallon of gas is $4.25. It's OK for people to (take your pick) freeze or starve, so long as the GDP continues to grow.

With interest rates at 3% and promised to go lower, maybe by this time next year, the Fed will pay us to borrow their worthless greenbacks.

In other economic news, The Conference Board said February consumer confidence fell to 75.0 from the prior reading of 87.3. Economists expected a reading of 82.0. The market tends to overreact to these readings, as they are only surveys. Briefing.com puts more weight into the personal consumption data that comprise 72% of the GDP, which will be released later this week.

Standard and Poor's reported existing home prices fell at a record pace of 8.9% in 2007. in the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index.

On the other side of home-ownership ledger, total foreclosure filings in January, which include default and auction notices as well as bank seizures, increased 57%, tracking firm RealtyTrac said.

Minyanville posted an excellent article by Mike Shedlock, a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management on the corrupted debt ratings issued by Moody's and S&P.

Mr. Shedlock makes comparisons between MBIA, which had its AAA rating confirmed and Pfizer (PFE), which had its rating cut from AAA to aa1.

Maybe the most obvious discrepancy was in the return on equity. MBIA's was a head-turning -35.54%, compared to Pfizer's +12.13%. The debt-to-equity ratios are equally out of whack, and Mr. Shedlock makes no bones about calling the puzzling ratings discrepancies either "incompetence or corruption."

Amid the toilet-like swirl of depressing economic news, mention that oil priced at over $101 a barrel in mid-day trading and finished at a record close of $100.88, up $1.65, was hardly worth mentioning.

Whew! That's quite a load of bad news.

One would have expected - considering that all of the news was not only negative, but extremely negative - stocks to lose value. But in this bizarro-world stock market, they went up. And not just a little. They went up a lot. Shortly after 1:00 pm, the Dow was 150 points higher, the NASDAQ up 31 points and the S&P had tacked on a gain of more than 13 points.

The rally settled out into the close, with all indices posting healthy (?) gains.

Dow 12,684.92 +114.70; NASDAQ 2,344.99 +17.51; S&P 500 1,381.29 +9.49; NYSE Composite 9,302.80 +92.72

Maybe some good news will deflate the market. It couldn't hurt. Seeing the fabulous rises in the indices, I figured it was time to fire up the bong, crack open a bottle of aged whiskey and join the party. Whooopie! Talk about irrational exuberance. I expected to see Joe Cocker appear on the trading floor, singing, "Let's Go Get Stoned."

The Dow should be just about petered out, as there's a significant area of resistance in the 12,724-12,783 range. Considering the prevailing attitude, however, a breakout is now more likely than not.

As expected, advancers crushed decliners, 4420-2084. By the narrowest of margins, new lows maintained their edge over new lows, 159-158. Look for that measure to flip to the new highs for at least a couple days before the market heads back down. The last time there were more new highs than lows was a two-day stretch in December. This one could last a few weeks unless some kind of sanity is returned to trading desks.

Gold was up $8.40, to $948.90. Silver continued to shine, adding 64 cents to $18.72.

Only one question remains: When will the markets crash?

NYSE Volume 4,014,953,250
NASDAQ Volume 2,317,563,500

PPT Chart Violations

I am going to say something that I have never said before. Being a guy, and being that this particular phrase is usually reserved for utterage by women, it's not something I say lightly.

Well, here goes... "I feel violated."

I have seldom, if ever felt this way. I usually have my wits about me and, as such, have seldom, if ever, been a victim. However, what the Plunge Protection Team, or whomever it is mauling the markets of late, did on Friday and did again today, has me feeling that somebody has taken advantage of me.

Seeing things in plain light, I am not fooled by missteps, mistakes or false moves in the market, as I've been studying stocks and markets for nearly 50 years (started when I was 6 years old, just so you know). The gains of the past two days are nearly perfect examples of transparent manipulation of the markets, and while they are by no means anything new (the PPT has been doing this earnestly since 2000), they have shaken my confidence in the veracity of US markets to the point at which I believe almost nothing coming out of the mouths of government officials, company CEOs, talking heads on CNBC or even some of the oft-quoted analysts.

Many of us in the business of market analysis take news and reports with a healthy grain of salt, but so thick and redolent is the smell of fishiness in everything these days, I find myself carrying around a 50-pound bag of the stuff just to tamper down the odor.

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It will come as no surprise to regular readers that I presently have a very negative view on the overall investment potential for stocks, but one might as well throw in the towel and become a buyer here, as the PPT seems relentless in their pursuit of an ever-higher Dow, S&P and NASDAQ.

Following Friday's ridiculously-rigged 225-point gain off the lows of the day, Monday saw no less of a malignant buying bug in the index futures. It wasn't so obvious until the Dow leapt 100 points in a five minute span just before 2:30. The volume spike was also quite obvious and nobody can claim that short sellers all acted at once. It was just another in a long series of excessive pumping maneuvers by the government, large brokerages (proxies) and the Federal Reserve acting in concert.

As such, stocks look really healthy at the close of trading today.

Dow 12,570.22 +189.20; NASDAQ 2,327.48 +24.13; S&P 500 1,371.80 +18.69; NYSE Composite 9,210.08 +145.25

They're not.

The current stock market is so chock full of companies which will report, in about six weeks, earnings short of expectations, or at least below last year's same quarter comparisons, that I can blithely state that I have never been more bearish.

Of course, there's the matter of overt government intervention in the markets, to say nothing of the blatant abuse of the news media in reportage of all things relative to the economy, which is just a fancy way of saying that stocks should go down but probably won't.

My best guess on how this plays out is tied to the political climate in ways which are neither healthy, advisable nor sustainable. Everything has become politicized to a point that the price of stuffed bears at Wal-Mart is even subject to further review.

We are witnessing a massive shift in sentiment today with the number of advancers and decliners. Gainers outnumbered losers on Monday by a massive amount, 4552-1770. New lows held onto their edge over new highs, 207-140, but the gap is shrinking rapidly.

Oil gained 42 cents to close at $99.23. Gold dipped $7.30 to $940.50 and silver was up a nickel to $18.09.

So, what's next?

Expect the mindless gains on the stock markets to continue unabated over the next three to five weeks. There's nary an earnings report or bit of economic data that cannot be hidden, altered or otherwise obscured if it's bad news. The markets have violated (there's that word again) major downtrend lines and if any logic applies, they will extend gains beyond the most recent high of 12,841.88 on the Dow, which is the next serious data point.

If that's the case, the Fed and the government and the supine news media can declare the subprime crisis (which really isn't the core problem, after all) over, the Fed victorious and we can all go back to watching Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John McCain sling buckets of mud at each other.

Of course, there will be a major market crash (it will be called "an adjustment") in April, if not sooner. That's how it works. Perfectly illogical and inscrutable is how the big boys like it.

NYSE Volume 3,772,699,500
NASDAQ Volume 2,152,884,500

Market Manipulation at Its Finest

Friday, February 22, 3:15 pm ET: The Dow Jones Industrials were down 129 points. Suddenly, CNBC, the most shamelessly, repugnantly, and overtly deficient purveyors of financial news. announces that some mystical, mythical plan to rescue troubled monoline insurer Ambac Financial Group (ABK) is in the works and should be announced some time next week. Notably, nothing specific was mentioned on the air.

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All of a sudden, every stock that was down, began to rise and the entire Dow Industrials - taking the other indices along with it - went from being down 129 points to gaining 96. A full course ride upwards of 225 point in 40 minutes flat. Remarkable... or pitiful, if you crave free, open, honest markets.

No doubt the Ambac story was only a cover to prevent yet another crashing down of the horrible US equity markets and to keep the American public fat, happy, fully invested and dumber than rocks. Sadly, it appears to be working.

Post of the day comes courtesy of Theroxylandr In Flames, which led off with:

"Today was what I think could be counted as a pretty good confirmation of the existence of PPT (plunge protection team) and they (sic) way it works."

The people in charge of such blatant market meddling is, of course, none other than the President's Working Group on Financial Markets, the legendary Plunge Protection Team, or PPT.

The current members of the President's Working Group (PWG) or PPT, as designated by the original executive order by President Reagan on March 18, 1988, are (links are to their bios):

(1) Henry Paulson, the Secretary of the Treasury, or his designee.

(2) Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System .

(3) Christopher Cox, the Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission.

(4) Walter Lukken, (acting) Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

All of them were appointed to their current positions by President George W. Bush. That alone should dispel any notion that these people are fully above board.

So, there you have it. Your pension plan, college fund, retirement account or 401k is in their hands. They won't let you down. Well, at least not all at once. Surely, if a Democrat wins the presidency, then the market will crash. Got it? OK.

Dow 12,381.02 +96.72; NASDAQ 2,303.35 +3.57; S&P 500 1,353.11 +10.58; NYSE Composite 9,064.83 +87.10

On the day, advancing issues held a narrow edge over decliners, 3288-2949, though winners were ahead on the NYSE, and losers had the advantage on the NASDAQ. Guess what? New lows beat new highs for the 30 millionth day in a row, 360-65. That is the largest gap in over a month.

Oil was up another 58 cents to close at $98.81 per barrel; gold dipped $1.40 to $947.80 and silver gained nine cents to $18.04.

The price of silver has nearly tripled in just over two years. Gold is closing in on $1000/ounce. Soon enough, the government surely will attempt to confiscate it from individuals' hands.

Now, take a deep breath, contemplate all this news and figures and ask yourself, do you really want to trust the stock markets and your financial future to people like those who populate the PWG or PPT, call it what you will?

If you do, well, good luck. If you don't, tough. There's nothing you or I can do about it. That's America. Love it or leave it.

NYSE Volume 3,574,533,500
NASDAQ Volume 2,340,831,500

Staring Down the Abyss at Economic Hell

Investors took some rather sobering economic news in stride on Thursday and did what most sensible equity managers would do: they sold stocks in earnest.

All of the major indices fell at least 1% on the day, and of the 30 Dow stocks, only three - AT&T (T), Wal-Mart (WMT) and Verizon (VZ) showed gains. Verizon was the most profitable, though up a mere 0.12 points.

Dow 12,284.30 -142.96; NASDAQ 2,299.78 -27.32; S&P 500 1,342.53 -17.50; NYSE Composite 8,977.73 -96.23

What sent traders scurrying for the sell button were two reports which confirmed that US economic growth continues to slow. The Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators fell a meager 0.1% in January, but the significance was that it was the fourth straight monthly decline.

What also roiled markets was the reading from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's general economic index, which declined to -24 in February from -20.9 in January.

Particularly troubling was that the Fed's regional report followed a similarly dour outlook from the NY Fed last week, which fell into decline for the first time in over three years.

Selling was as broad-based as any of the numerous fire sale days this winter, with decliners overwhelming advancing issues, 4479-1788. New lows pounded new highs, 249-115.

The major stock gauges continue to slide back toward their January 22 lows. The close on the Dow is just 311 points that point, or roughly one or two good sell-offs away from retesting that critical point.

Bear market deniers abound especially at places like financial news network CNBC and the popular Marketwatch.com website, though indications are fairly clear that lows will soon be retested and another round of selling will commence, taking stocks even lower.

Of course, government officials are reluctant to make claims which might alarm the general public or even the investor class, though they've been heard lately to begrudgingly grumble over generally souring conditions.

It's never fashionable to predict gloom and doom, though staring into the abyss at economic hell can have a sobering effect. One begins to pay attention to things far afield from stock prices, like traffic at malls, the price of cream cheese or how often the neighbors go out to dinner.

Pinching pennies and foregoing some level of self-pampering does have a satisfactory outcome at week's end. One's bank account may be a bit fuller, bills not so pressing and the change in the jar takes on a new, eerie glitter.

Americans haven't completely forgotten how to save, they just haven't had to recently. It's likely a trend that will gain considerable traction as time and the economy continue to grind slower.

Light, sweet crude for April delivery dropped $1.47 to settle at $98.23, somewhat of a relief after two days over the century mark. Gold set another record high, gaining $11.40 to $949.20. Silver rose 19 cents to a multi-year high of $17.95.

Volume on the exchanges remained moderate.

NYSE Volume 3,707,656,500
NASDAQ Volume 2,285,995,250