Massive Gains on Turn-Around Day

After witnessing the huge post-Fed sell-off yesterday and laughing at fooled investors, I found myself on the other side of the aisle today as the indices took off running and hummed to big across-the-board gains on Thursday.

The thrust forward seemed intent on the Dow closing above 13,000, as if to confirm that the worst of the subprime/recession/credit squeeze/inflation debacle is solidly behind us. The Dow made its move, establishing either a double top or just the breakthrough above a significantly emotional trading level.

We'll not know which it is until next week at the earliest. This is either a top or the Dow will proceed to 13,500, which will then be the absolute top, followed by a wicked decline. I don't know which I'd like to see, though I'm about done with the gains of the past six weeks.

Should the Dow push towards 13,500, I will ride the roller-coaster up, and then all the way back down to 12,000 or lower. I'm still not convinced that January-March was the bottom. There are still enough unresolved issues in the economy for the markets to move significantly higher, politics or not.

Meanwhile, I've been putting the finishing touches on my Investment Advisory Newsletter and am splitting hairs between going long and short, though my gut continues to tell me this market is overbought. Earnings will remain the focus through most of next week before economic news and reports should begin to shape the trade.

Dow 13,010.00 +189.87; NASDAQ 2,480.71 +67.91; S&P 500 1,409.34 +23.75; NYSE Composite 9,395.04 +95.44

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Advancing issues whipped decliners, 4347-1925, but new lows retained their long-held advantage over new highs, 164-140. Friday and Monday's trading should determine direction according to the new highs-lows gauge.

With the markets and the dollar showing strength, commodities took it on the chin once again. Oil dipped another 94 cents, closing at $112.52. Gold slipped even further, to a 4-month low, dropping $14.50, to $850.90. Silver shed 39 cents to close at $16.21 per ounce, a 3-month low.

NYSE Volume 4,414,284,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,344,251,000

The Joke's On US... and You

I am laughing so hard my sides are about to split after watching the market's silly Fed-watch ritual for the past two-and-a-half days only to see the bottom basically fall out as today's session drew to a close.

What the Fed did was lower the federal funds rate another 25 basis points - essentially a do-nothing gambit - but signal that the cuts were over. What smart investors did was cash in their chips right at the highs. A nice play, if you're big, rich and not stupid.

Anyone not cashing out as early as possible tomorrow is going to be stuck with declining issues. As noted yesterday, today's most important announcement came not from the Fed, but from Commerce, which told us today that we are unofficially in recession.

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The word from Commerce was that "real" GDP was measured at an annualized growth rate of 0.6% in the first quarter of 2008, matching that of the 4th quarter of 2007. Since the term "real" isn't as confident a measure as it used to be, one necessarily has to include some of the inflation over the last six months to offset the gains. Inflation ran at a 3.7% annually in the 4th quarter of last year and 3.5% in the first quarter.

Now, the government will tell you that inflation, or, "prices paid" as they put it, are factored into the GDP question. I'll tell you that inflation is largely: 1) understated, and 2) not factored in correctly.

Without doing all the math and using their "estimates", here's my conclusion. If we "grew" at 0.6% over the past six months, but inflation averaged 3.6%, we're down 3% in "real" terms. In other words, that 0.6% gain didn't even keep pace with inflation. I am assuming that there's very little "reality" in the government's numbers.

It's more smoke and mirrors than anyone can possibly see through without losing one's mind, so you can take my word on it or the government's. Since I'm the one not $9.6 trillion in debt, I'd wager that I'm closer than the truth than the bean counters in Washington.

Plus, if you don't like my analysis, just look around. The Dow dropped almost 200 points off its intraday high once the excitement of a 0.25% interest rate cut ended (insert one hand clapping here). Gas is $3.60 a gallon, bread, milk and most vegetable prices are up at least 20% from where they were a year ago, and your wages simply are not keeping pace.

If you measure a growth rate of 0.6% in terms of a 5-foot-tall 12-year-old, it would amount to .36 inches in a year. By the time the poor kid reaches 18, he or she would still only be a shade over 5' 2" and likely be accused of smoking or engaging in some other kind of growth-stunting activity.

In any case, 0.6% growth is laughably sad. It doesn't even register, so if we're not in a recession, we're at best going nowhere fast.

Dow 12,820.13 -11.81; NASDAQ 2,412.80 -13.30; S&P 500 1,385.59 -5.35; NYSE Composite 9,299.60 +13.69

One other point of emphasis. The Dow (at one time I nearly disregarded it as a solid measure of American industrial and financial strength; today, I believe it is one of the best overall gauges) had gained 1,260 points from the March 10 low to today's intraday high just over 13,000 and it immediately backed off. Technical matters aside, every trader worth his or her salt knew that level was simply unsustainable and the market was severely overbought. Profits were taken and more will come off the table in weeks ahead. There is no bottom in place and won't be for at least another 3-5 months.

Advancing issues actually did better than decliners, though not by much, 3198-3046. New lows superseded new highs, 178-114. This has been the norm for every session except four since October 31, 2007, a span of now six full months. If you don't have some real dogs in your portfolio, count yourself among the lucky few.

Oil traders were obviously paying attention to developments outside their particular realm, sending crude down another $2.17, to $114.69, as were metals bettors, with gold losing another $11.70, to $865.10 and silver down 5 cents to $16.59.

With the world fully focused on higher prices, it would pay to keep an eye on global demand for commodities, which has been under pressure of late, along with credit markets, at a standstill since August. Deflation, not inflation, may turn out to be the more dangerous of those evil siblings.

NYSE Volume 4,508,902,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,219,310,000

Plenty of Bad News Ahead of Fed

The markets spent another day running in place as traders await Wednesday afternoon's rate policy announcement. As the Fed is largely expected to cut the federal funds rate another 25 basis points, there doesn't seem to be much to get excited about even after the announcement.

Tuesday was a good day for hand-ringing, with economic news very much on the negative side.

The Conference Board reported their measure of Consumer Confidence hit a 5-year low, falling to 62.3 in April, down from the revised 65.9 in March.

The housing situation in the US continues to deteriorate. Median home prices fell by 12.7% in February, at the same time the number of homes heading towards foreclosure leapt 112% in the first quarter of '08 as compared to the same period in '07, and up 23 percent from the 4th quarter of '07.

Perhaps the only good news was in the price of oil, which fell sharply on - believe it or not - supply and demand concerns. It seems as though the high prices at the pump are finally coming home to roost. People are changing their driving and buying habits, albeit slowly, and word is spreading that there's actually an oversupply of oil available.

It's inevitable that such a hyperventilated market as is oil would have to bust sooner than later. Here's hoping the price of crude is under $75 this time next year.

All of this did little to buoy the fears of collected investors. Stocks were off, though marginally, and seem to have stalled at key resistance levels. With the earnings season winding down, it's back to the grind of daily economic reports detailing a widening, deepening recession, such as was suggested by Warren Buffett on Monday.

Dow 12,831.94 -39.81; NASDAQ 2,426.10 +1.70; S&P 500 1,390.94 -5.43; NYSE Composite 9,285.91 -63.70

Of companies reporting on Tuesday, Corning (GLW), Visa (V), Mastercard (MA) and British Petroleum (BP) all topped estimates handily, while Deutsche Bank (DB) and US Steel (X) slipped below expectations. Merck (MRK) fell sharply when the US Food and Drug Administration rejected Cordaptive, a cholesterol-lowering drug.

Amid thin trading, declining issues outperformed advancers by 3663-2539. Once more, there were more new lows (170) than new highs (82), an ongoing trend. In fact, the gap between the new highs and new lows continues to widen, indicating the possibility that the market is ready to do an about face after six weeks of gains regardless of what the Fed decides on Wednesday. When all is said and done, the market may just move on its own weight back into the mid-March levels.

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As mentioned above, oil fell markedly, off $3.12, to $115.63. The metals also felt some pain, as gold fell $18.70 to $876.80 and silver lost 48 cents to $16.64. More evidence of a widespread deflationary spiral developing if worldwide growth sputters.

Two of the three main events for the week begin tomorrow, with the Fed rate announcement tomorrow afternoon and conclude on Friday after the Labor Dept. releases Non-farm payroll data for March. Maybe most importantly, the Commerce Department issues a preliminary reading on GDP for the first quarter prior to the market's open tomorrow, a key reading at what may turn out to be a critical moment. Following the 4th quarter reading of 0.6% growth, expectations are for anywhere from 0.4-0.7% growth, though much of that may be attributed to higher food and energy prices. In real terms, a reading under 0.5% may indicate that real growth has stalled and recession has already arrived, as some economists are already saying.

NYSE Volume 3,753,163,250
NASDAQ Volume 1,763,981,000

All the World Awaits the Fed

The Fed dance has begun once again. Stocks traded in an impossibly narrow range on Monday (80 points on the Dow, 8 points on the S&P) as investors sat back in anticipation of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve to issue a policy statement on interest rates on Wednesday at 2:15 ET in the afternoon.

By most accounts, the Committee will likely cut rates another 25 basis points, from 2.25% to 2%. And then all out problems will be over, ostensibly, until the next meeting, on June 24/25.

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This entire predilection of making investment decisions based upon minuscule, incremental increases or decreases in interest rates has taken on the air of a Samuel Becket staging, absurd and discernible to only the most hypothetical.

Surely, the Fed has impact on the macro side of the equation, but how many of us consider the ramifications of interest rates when ordering dinner at a restaurant, shopping at the mall or filling our automobiles with gas?

Maybe we should, because we'd then see the stupidity and insanity of it all. But, then again, without something as arcane as setting the rate of interest on what banks charge each other to ponder, what would these otherwise unemployable Fed governors have to do?

Maybe we should check official government statistics the next time we clock in for work, pay our taxes, buy a donut. We might, despite our rational and often necessary effort, be contributing to economic doomsday for all we know.

Let's resolve to let the Fed and the government do what they do best - impede progress with rules, regulations, statistics and taxes - and let the markets sort out the rest. If anything has been learned from the past nine months of a grueling credit crunch is that life goes on, stocks go up and down and there's more to the market than interest rates.

That's why whatever the Fed does should be viewed as a feather in the wind. Just like the tax rebates which began reaching individual bank accounts on Monday.

Dow 12,871.75 -20.11; NASDAQ 2,424.40 +1.47; S&P 500 1,396.37 -1.47; NYSE Composite 9,349.61 +5.30

If there's any more proof needed that banks, especially big ones like the Fed, don't really matter in modern markets, one need only look so far as the Mars-Wrigley merger, financed by Warren Buffett's Berkshire-Hathaway. Mars is family-owned, while Wrigley, which is being acquired, is public, as is Berkshire-Hathaway, the world's most expensive stock. No banks and no investment brokers were named nor needed. The deal is the perfect function of free-market economics, thank you very much.

Meanwhile, back on Wall Street, in very thin trade, advancing issues held sway over decliners, 3620-2703. New lows remained slightly ahead of new highs, 159-146.

Oil, after pricing near $120/barrel, settled with a gain of just 23 cents, at $118.75. Gold gained $5.80 to $895.50. Silver added 17 cents to $17.12 the ounce.

Tomorrow will likely look very much like today, though the real action will come not on Wednesday, when the Fed announces their decision, but on Friday, when the Labor Dept. releases the Non-farm payroll report prior to Friday's open.

Until then, buy fresh produce and gas. Both are cheaper now than they will be soon.

NYSE Volume 3,557,361,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,783,155,000

Another Pleasant Valley Friday

All's well on Wall Street... or so it would seem from the euphoric kind of trading we've witnessed in recent weeks. Since March 12 - a span of 32 sessions - the Dow has tacked on 1250 points and is looking for a blow-off top, once it breaks through a double-barrel of resistance at 12,900 and the psychological level at 13,000.

There's little doubt that investors will continue to spend on equities despite cloudy economic circumstances, determined, as they are, to prove that the economy isn't as bad as the endless stream of headlines and economic reports seem to suggest.

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On the bright side, higher energy and food prices, stagnant labor costs (non-rising wages), a dead housing market and soaring raw material costs seem not to have fazed the titan of Wall Street one whit. Earnings continue to come out from corporate America in good fashion, with more than 2/3rds of the companies reporting having met or exceeded expectations.

That those expectations have been lowered for some doesn't matter either, as long as companies remain profitable. By and large, most companies are surviving quite well. The average middle-and-lower-class American, however, is spending every last weaker dollar on groceries and gas, and little else, though the stories of real suffering have been few and far between. We're getting along, or, as the erudite John Maudlin might say, muddling through.

Dow 12,891.86 +42.91; NASDAQ 2,422.93 -5.99; S&P 500 1,397.84 +9.02; NYSE Composite 9,344.31 +94.09

The University of Michigan reported on Friday that consumer sentiment has fallen to its lowest level in more than two decades with a reading of 62.6, just a touch lower than last month's 63.2.

Advancing issues overcame decliners on the last day of the week, 3693-2489, but new lows maintained their edge over new highs, 164-127. For all the gains over the past six weeks, there are still some real dogs out there and they are still getting beaten down.

The coming week should prove fascinating and provide the impetus for the blow off top for which this market so sorely is wishing. On Wednesday, the FOMC will likely cut the federal funds rate another 1/4 point, keeping traders and Keynesians happy, but by Friday, the Labor Department will once again spoil the party with its Non-farm payroll report and the unemployment rate, expected to remain at 5.1% or maybe tick up to 5.2%, still historically low.

Oil perked up another $2.46 to $118.52. This just a day after Wall Street was cheering a temporary pullback in price. Temporary was true. It lasted less than one day. Gold gained just 30 cents, closing at 889.70, while silver added 19 cents to $16.96.

High prices don't matter. The world is adjusting to the global economy. Besides, President Bush assures us that tax rebate checks (Isn't the government lovely, giving back our own money? Bread and circuses, people.) will be in the mail on Monday.

Truth of the matter is that the world is awash in currency. Most central banks have added to their money supplies by 10% or more in the last year. While credit may not be so easy on the surface, the reality is that the best way to garner additional funding is to be large and claim near-insolvency, a la Bear Stearns, Citigroup, home mortgage defaulters, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, et. al.

The government (uh, huh, taxpayer dollars financed by more debt) will bail out anyone. There's no pain, no risk, no responsibility. It's a wonderful, faultless fiat system. Look for a blow-off top on Wednesday, followed by a retracement following Friday's Labor Dept. report.

NYSE Volume 3,831,665,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,988,770,250