The continuing credit crisis took its toll on frazzled investors again on Monday, with the Dow down as much as 800 points shortly before 3:00 pm. From that point forward, however, stocks rallied across all indices shaving the losses by more than half in the final hour.
Dow 9,955.50 -369.88; NASDAQ 1,862.96 -84.43; S&P 500 1,056.89 -42.34; NYSE Composite 6,754.91 -334.03
What moved stocks late in the session was a rumor of an emergency G8 meeting, ostensibly to explore global options for dealing with the ongoing banking crisis. More likely is the assumption that there are now real bargains being scooped up by daring speculators. One can hardly blame them, though catching the falling knife is seldom a smart move.
There should be little doubt right now that it was banks and bank practices which caused the overly long bull market from November 2002 through August 2007 and it is those same banks and bank practices - now in reverse - that have been and are causing the decline in stocks and the run to fixed instruments.
Most of the carnage has been caused by the large money center banks which have become increasingly wary of each other, owing to the massive structure of derivatives, including the now-unpopular credit default swaps which have just recently become the focus of the financial media.
Of course, the arcane instruments which banks have employed for years to spread and/or minimize risk are now at risk themselves. The result is the possibility of a fast-falling house of cards in the enormous (estimates vary), roughly $56 trillion derivatives market.
If you think you're worried, imagine the naked fear in the board rooms and CEO suites of major financial firms. It's a knife-to-the-throat environment in which everybody and everything is almost equally at risk.
One might conclude that the world is going to end, or that some major economic catastrophe was about to occur, but the truth is that the event is ongoing, unwinding and probably will continue for some months, until banks and governments conclude that the worst is already behind us.
Chart watchers and Fibonacci adherents should note that a bottom may be near. Implications of this are spelled out more fully in this month's Fearless Stocks and Options Advisory.
In any case, the markets are now entering a new and precarious phase. The two forces at work over the next 4 weeks will be corporate earnings reports for the third quarter and the US presidential election. The former will affect individual stocks, whereas the latter should have more impact upon markets and indices in a more generalized way.
On the day, market internals were about as negative as we've seen, even including recent volatile sessions. Decliners swamped advancing issues by a massive margin, 5613-722, a ratio of nearly 8-1. New lows registered at a phenomenal 2804 stocks, with only 10 new highs. More than 2 of every 5 stocks reached new 52-week lows on Monday. All of these signals point to imminent capitulation by market participants.
Volume was particularly heavy, but the closing rally (over 400 points on the Dow) should be somewhat of a salve for the buy-and-hold mindset.
NYSE Volume 1,974,275,000
NASDAQ Volume 3,493,974,000
Commodities were mixed once more, with oil taking a severe hit at an important level, crashing through the $90/barrel mark. Light, sweet crude for November delivery fell $6.07, settling at $87.81. Gold was up $33.00, at $866.20, but silver lost 4 cents, closing at $11.29.
As has become somewhat of a mantra for me, there are signs of deflation everywhere. By the time this is all over, cash and credit-free positions will be highly valued and everything from cars to candy bars should cost less. The effects of tighter credit and slower demand take some time to work through economies, and this environment is no different.
Monday, October 6, 2008
Friday, October 3, 2008
House Passes Bailout Bill, Bush Signs, Markets Reel
All major US stock indices were higher at the outset of trading on Friday as passage of the massive financial industry bailout bill (let's call a spade a spade) by the House of Representatives seemed likely.
The Dow was up more than 300 points by mid-day, but once news that the bill had passed the House and was en route to a sure signing by President Bush, a general sell-off ensued, taking down all indices.
What was once a 300-point gain on the Dow had turned into a 157-point loss. Worse yet was the fact that the major indices had all fallen below where they had closed on Monday, September 29, the day the House initially rejected the bill.
It was as though the Wall Street Fat Cats had been playing the American public and the congress and said, "Thanks, but screw you." The sudden selling spree left many with a knot in their stomach as though they had just given away the farm. No doubt, there will be much discussion in coming days, weeks and months over the entire episode.
Unfortunately, it is now too late to retrieve the money and whatever else is left of the US financial system. For two weeks, all we heard from the President, his Treasury Secretary and the supine, lap-dog media was that there was a crisis and congress must act. The pressure to pass legislation to buy up the mostly-worthless assets from the very same banks and financial firms which took imprudent risks was severe.
The vote to give in to the pressure and give away more than $700 billion of taxpayer money (all of which will need to be borrowed, mostly from foreign entities) will likely go down in history as one of the greatest swindles by government ever achieved.
It is my hope that the recipients of the nation's largess suffer the worst fates imaginable, and that goes twofold for the gutless legislators who folded under pressure to pass this ridiculous piece of legislation. My sentiments toward the sitting president and the grossly incompetent bunch of liars and thieves he so glibly calls the administration is already well known.
I am not one to pass judgment upon entire classes of people, but in this case, there is little doubt that those who pushed along this legislation and passed this monstrosity were not working in the public interest but in their own self-interests, by padding the wallets of every lobbyist and high-dollar campaign contributor via a deceptive and offensive abuse of the public trust.
Sadly, signatories to this bill include both presidential candidates along with Joe Biden, the Democratic party's vice-presidential candidate. Whichever eventually wins the election will be saddled with not only the huge outlay and management of this unwieldy program, but, more importantly, must work overtime to regain the trust of the American public, which has been severely compromised.
Dow 10,325.38 -157.47; NASDAQ 1,947.39 -29.33; S&P 500 1,099.23 -15.05; NYSE Composite 7,088.94 -66.47
Declining issues topped advancers, 4323-2019. New lows were once more ahead of new highs, 1103-23. Volume was on the high side, especially on the NASDAQ, and considering the resoluteness of the late-day trades, all indications are that the bottom is still a way off.
NYSE Volume 1,419,507,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,531,149,000
The other news, which went largely unnoticed, was the loss of another 159,000 jobs in September, according to the Commerce Department's Nonfarm payroll figures released prior to the market's opening. This horrendous figure underscores the depth of the problems facing the US economy. We have been going in reverse for some 14 months now, and, with the elections a month ahead and three more months before any new administration can get around to any kind of serious problem-solving, the government's answer to the people is quite clear and somewhat astonishing: "Vote for us in November, but until February of next year, you're on your own."
Commodity markets were rather calm. Oil lost a mere 9 cents, at $93.88. Gold finished $11.10 lower, at $833.20, and silver gained 21 cents, closing at $11.33.
It was an historic, tumultuous week on Wall Street, whose principals have been made whole by the US taxpayers, but whose principles are still at the height of ruthlessness, greed and avarice. Those of us on Main Street have given them a free pass via our ineffectual government, but for many American citizens, this episode will not be soon forgotten.
The Dow was up more than 300 points by mid-day, but once news that the bill had passed the House and was en route to a sure signing by President Bush, a general sell-off ensued, taking down all indices.
What was once a 300-point gain on the Dow had turned into a 157-point loss. Worse yet was the fact that the major indices had all fallen below where they had closed on Monday, September 29, the day the House initially rejected the bill.
It was as though the Wall Street Fat Cats had been playing the American public and the congress and said, "Thanks, but screw you." The sudden selling spree left many with a knot in their stomach as though they had just given away the farm. No doubt, there will be much discussion in coming days, weeks and months over the entire episode.
Unfortunately, it is now too late to retrieve the money and whatever else is left of the US financial system. For two weeks, all we heard from the President, his Treasury Secretary and the supine, lap-dog media was that there was a crisis and congress must act. The pressure to pass legislation to buy up the mostly-worthless assets from the very same banks and financial firms which took imprudent risks was severe.
The vote to give in to the pressure and give away more than $700 billion of taxpayer money (all of which will need to be borrowed, mostly from foreign entities) will likely go down in history as one of the greatest swindles by government ever achieved.
It is my hope that the recipients of the nation's largess suffer the worst fates imaginable, and that goes twofold for the gutless legislators who folded under pressure to pass this ridiculous piece of legislation. My sentiments toward the sitting president and the grossly incompetent bunch of liars and thieves he so glibly calls the administration is already well known.
I am not one to pass judgment upon entire classes of people, but in this case, there is little doubt that those who pushed along this legislation and passed this monstrosity were not working in the public interest but in their own self-interests, by padding the wallets of every lobbyist and high-dollar campaign contributor via a deceptive and offensive abuse of the public trust.
Sadly, signatories to this bill include both presidential candidates along with Joe Biden, the Democratic party's vice-presidential candidate. Whichever eventually wins the election will be saddled with not only the huge outlay and management of this unwieldy program, but, more importantly, must work overtime to regain the trust of the American public, which has been severely compromised.
Dow 10,325.38 -157.47; NASDAQ 1,947.39 -29.33; S&P 500 1,099.23 -15.05; NYSE Composite 7,088.94 -66.47
Declining issues topped advancers, 4323-2019. New lows were once more ahead of new highs, 1103-23. Volume was on the high side, especially on the NASDAQ, and considering the resoluteness of the late-day trades, all indications are that the bottom is still a way off.
NYSE Volume 1,419,507,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,531,149,000
The other news, which went largely unnoticed, was the loss of another 159,000 jobs in September, according to the Commerce Department's Nonfarm payroll figures released prior to the market's opening. This horrendous figure underscores the depth of the problems facing the US economy. We have been going in reverse for some 14 months now, and, with the elections a month ahead and three more months before any new administration can get around to any kind of serious problem-solving, the government's answer to the people is quite clear and somewhat astonishing: "Vote for us in November, but until February of next year, you're on your own."
Commodity markets were rather calm. Oil lost a mere 9 cents, at $93.88. Gold finished $11.10 lower, at $833.20, and silver gained 21 cents, closing at $11.33.
It was an historic, tumultuous week on Wall Street, whose principals have been made whole by the US taxpayers, but whose principles are still at the height of ruthlessness, greed and avarice. Those of us on Main Street have given them a free pass via our ineffectual government, but for many American citizens, this episode will not be soon forgotten.
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Stocks Bomb After Senate Vote
On Wednesday night, the United States Senate overwhelmingly passed (74-25) the massive $700+ billion bailout plan, similar to the one that was rejected by the House of Representatives on Monday.
The final bill before the Senate looked quite different from the House version. In addition to being 475 pages in length, the bill added a number of provisions for tax relief, various tax credits and outright pork barrel designed to induce specific House members to sign on to the measure.
Apparently, Wall Street was not impressed or was more concerned over an increase in initial unemployment claims (497K) and an enormous decrease in factory orders (-4.0%) for August. By contrast, July factory orders showed an increase of 0.7%.
Major US indices began the session lower and continued to decline throughout the day.
Dow 10,482.85 -348.22; NASDAQ 1,976.72 -92.68; S&P 500 1,114.28 -46.78; NYSE Composite 7,155.71 -364.24
With all the sweeteners in the bill, passage in the tumultuous House seems more certain, though rumblings remain among free market Republicans and now, so-called "Blue Dog" Democrats who may not readily sign on to legislation which increases spending without aligned taxes for which to pay the additional freight.
Meanwhile, European markets also were reeling from their own uncertainties in the banking sector The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, rose again, and the US commercial paper market plunged to a 3-year low.
Also on the minds of investors were yesterday's horrific auto sales reports for September which showed major auto makers suffering one the their worst months on record, an overall decline of 27% from a year ago. In addition to most new American cars and trucks being gas hogs and overpriced, a pullback in lending has left many would-be car buyers seeking alternatives.
On the day, declining issues once again outstripped advancers by a wide margin: 5313-1097. New lows continued to crush against new highs, 1031-17.
Volume was moderate, continuing to indicate what everybody already knows: there are hordes of cash sitting on the sidelines, waiting until either the congress passes (or doesn't pass) a bailout bill and/or the volatility is wrung out of the market and at least an interim bottom is put in place. At this point, nobody is holding his or her breath as the "crisis" drags onward.
NYSE Volume 1,463,072,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,212,399,000
Commodities continued a fascinating trade regimen. Oil dropped $4.56, to $96.97. Gold also fell by a whopping $43.00, to $844.30. Silver shed another $1.65 - a nearly 13% drop - to $11.12. The fall in the price of silver is historic, the largest one-day percentage decline ever.
While debate continues behind the scenes in the House, debate on Main Street and on the radio waves maintained a negative bent with most Americans deploring the current condition, expressing widespread distaste for the prospect of a $700+ billion bill which is still being seen as a bailout for rich Wall Street bankers and associated fat cats.
One really cannot argue with the US public on that note.
The final bill before the Senate looked quite different from the House version. In addition to being 475 pages in length, the bill added a number of provisions for tax relief, various tax credits and outright pork barrel designed to induce specific House members to sign on to the measure.
Apparently, Wall Street was not impressed or was more concerned over an increase in initial unemployment claims (497K) and an enormous decrease in factory orders (-4.0%) for August. By contrast, July factory orders showed an increase of 0.7%.
Major US indices began the session lower and continued to decline throughout the day.
Dow 10,482.85 -348.22; NASDAQ 1,976.72 -92.68; S&P 500 1,114.28 -46.78; NYSE Composite 7,155.71 -364.24
With all the sweeteners in the bill, passage in the tumultuous House seems more certain, though rumblings remain among free market Republicans and now, so-called "Blue Dog" Democrats who may not readily sign on to legislation which increases spending without aligned taxes for which to pay the additional freight.
Meanwhile, European markets also were reeling from their own uncertainties in the banking sector The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, rose again, and the US commercial paper market plunged to a 3-year low.
Also on the minds of investors were yesterday's horrific auto sales reports for September which showed major auto makers suffering one the their worst months on record, an overall decline of 27% from a year ago. In addition to most new American cars and trucks being gas hogs and overpriced, a pullback in lending has left many would-be car buyers seeking alternatives.
On the day, declining issues once again outstripped advancers by a wide margin: 5313-1097. New lows continued to crush against new highs, 1031-17.
Volume was moderate, continuing to indicate what everybody already knows: there are hordes of cash sitting on the sidelines, waiting until either the congress passes (or doesn't pass) a bailout bill and/or the volatility is wrung out of the market and at least an interim bottom is put in place. At this point, nobody is holding his or her breath as the "crisis" drags onward.
NYSE Volume 1,463,072,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,212,399,000
Commodities continued a fascinating trade regimen. Oil dropped $4.56, to $96.97. Gold also fell by a whopping $43.00, to $844.30. Silver shed another $1.65 - a nearly 13% drop - to $11.12. The fall in the price of silver is historic, the largest one-day percentage decline ever.
While debate continues behind the scenes in the House, debate on Main Street and on the radio waves maintained a negative bent with most Americans deploring the current condition, expressing widespread distaste for the prospect of a $700+ billion bill which is still being seen as a bailout for rich Wall Street bankers and associated fat cats.
One really cannot argue with the US public on that note.
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
Stocks Lower as Senate Prepares Vote; Soros Floats Alternative
The Dow recovered from a 200-point loss early on and finished moderately lower as prospects for a bailout or "rescue" (as John McCain prefers) bill improved overnight with key Senators vowing a vote on the measure Wednesday night.
A number of new elements have been tossed around the periphery of the plan that failed in the House on Monday, the best-received being a move to increase FDIC insurance to $250,000 on bank deposits, though that - and other suggestions - are merely cosmetic.
The bill still contains the fatal flaw of that gaudy $700 billion price tag, and senators in close races are sweating bullets over the largely unpopular measure. The compliant mainstream media has been instructed to push the "something must be done" mantra to the public, though many on Main Street are still resistant.
At the crux of the matter is all forms of credit being squeezed to the point at which the global financial system is nearly completely dried up. Libor rates (the percentage on money that banks lend to each other) have been extremely high, yesterday marking a record of 6.88% for overnight loans between banks. One-month loans are also high as banks have lost faith in other banks and are nearly refusing to lend. Around the globe, five banks have been rescued by governments and central banks this week alone.
While the Senate ponders its task ahead, conditions in Europe have reached crisis proportions as well. The EU has been promoting talks between mega-banking interests and, separately, leaders of the "Big Four" powers - Great Britain, France, Germany and Spain - in an ongoing effort to stave off more bank failures and a complete financial meltdown.
Adding to the mix is a proposal by billionaire investor George Soros, who made his case in a pair of editorials in the Financial Times, first on September 24, and most recently - and with clearer outlines for an alternative plan, on October 1.
The Senate vote is scheduled to begin around 9:00 pm. As of this writing, debate is underway.
Both presidential candidates returned to Washington for the vote. Here is the complete text of Barack Obama's speech on the Senate floor in support of passage. Senator McCain has also voiced support for the bailout package.
While the crisis drama intensified in Washington, Wall Street spent the day in a less volatile trading session.
Dow 10,831.07 -19.59; NASDAQ 2,069.40 -22.48; S&P 500 1,161.06 -5.30; NYSE Composite 7,519.95 -12.85
Declining issues held a slight edge over advancers, 3561-2769. New lows continued their domination over new highs, 406-24. Volume was moderate.
NYSE Volume 1,469,006,540
NASDAQ Volume 1,948,804,625
Commodities remained mixed. Oil was down again, losing $2.11, to $98.53. Gold rose $6.50, to $887.50. Silver rebounded as well, gaining 50 cents to $12.77.
Whatever occurs in Washington tonight and in the House of Representatives - who will revisit the issue on Friday - passage or rejection of the measure will have a dramatic impact on Wall Street. Whether this action, and that of our European counterparts, will manage to restore confidence to the ruined banking system is less clear.
A complete seizure of world economics would precipitate war, famine and generalized disaster to much of the world. America, being the world's most prosperous nation, will suffer the least by comparison. It is the poor and developing nations which will bear the brunt of the fallout from what can only be described as naked greed in financial circles.
It is because of that concept that many hold Wall Street financiers in contempt, wishing that they, among the richest men and women in the world, would share the same fate as those at the bottom of the economic system.
To that, one can only sympathize and hope for some shred of equality.
A number of new elements have been tossed around the periphery of the plan that failed in the House on Monday, the best-received being a move to increase FDIC insurance to $250,000 on bank deposits, though that - and other suggestions - are merely cosmetic.
The bill still contains the fatal flaw of that gaudy $700 billion price tag, and senators in close races are sweating bullets over the largely unpopular measure. The compliant mainstream media has been instructed to push the "something must be done" mantra to the public, though many on Main Street are still resistant.
At the crux of the matter is all forms of credit being squeezed to the point at which the global financial system is nearly completely dried up. Libor rates (the percentage on money that banks lend to each other) have been extremely high, yesterday marking a record of 6.88% for overnight loans between banks. One-month loans are also high as banks have lost faith in other banks and are nearly refusing to lend. Around the globe, five banks have been rescued by governments and central banks this week alone.
While the Senate ponders its task ahead, conditions in Europe have reached crisis proportions as well. The EU has been promoting talks between mega-banking interests and, separately, leaders of the "Big Four" powers - Great Britain, France, Germany and Spain - in an ongoing effort to stave off more bank failures and a complete financial meltdown.
Adding to the mix is a proposal by billionaire investor George Soros, who made his case in a pair of editorials in the Financial Times, first on September 24, and most recently - and with clearer outlines for an alternative plan, on October 1.
The Senate vote is scheduled to begin around 9:00 pm. As of this writing, debate is underway.
Both presidential candidates returned to Washington for the vote. Here is the complete text of Barack Obama's speech on the Senate floor in support of passage. Senator McCain has also voiced support for the bailout package.
While the crisis drama intensified in Washington, Wall Street spent the day in a less volatile trading session.
Dow 10,831.07 -19.59; NASDAQ 2,069.40 -22.48; S&P 500 1,161.06 -5.30; NYSE Composite 7,519.95 -12.85
Declining issues held a slight edge over advancers, 3561-2769. New lows continued their domination over new highs, 406-24. Volume was moderate.
NYSE Volume 1,469,006,540
NASDAQ Volume 1,948,804,625
Commodities remained mixed. Oil was down again, losing $2.11, to $98.53. Gold rose $6.50, to $887.50. Silver rebounded as well, gaining 50 cents to $12.77.
Whatever occurs in Washington tonight and in the House of Representatives - who will revisit the issue on Friday - passage or rejection of the measure will have a dramatic impact on Wall Street. Whether this action, and that of our European counterparts, will manage to restore confidence to the ruined banking system is less clear.
A complete seizure of world economics would precipitate war, famine and generalized disaster to much of the world. America, being the world's most prosperous nation, will suffer the least by comparison. It is the poor and developing nations which will bear the brunt of the fallout from what can only be described as naked greed in financial circles.
It is because of that concept that many hold Wall Street financiers in contempt, wishing that they, among the richest men and women in the world, would share the same fate as those at the bottom of the economic system.
To that, one can only sympathize and hope for some shred of equality.
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Filtering Through the Noise: Markets Rally After Worst Day
The US stock markets are volatile enough to drive a sober man to drink. Of course, adroit options players are having a field day on the wild swings with naked straddles and bets one way or the other.
But the noise has to be filtered out and I found an exceptional article on cnn.com by economist Jeffrey Miron which expresses a belief that bankruptcy, not bailout, is the correct solution, something that's been opined ad nauseum on this blog.
The American public made it unquestionably clear that they opposed a massive taxpayer-funded bailout of failed financial institutions. Congress, as of yesterday, apparently got the message, sending the measure down to defeat, but somehow, hundreds of thousands of phone calls and emails from everyday citizens can't keep the morons on Capitol Hill from trying again.
So, today, one day after the largest single-day point decline in the history of the Dow Jones Industrials, investors were busily picking up the broken pieces - by the handfuls. All indices were up sharply from the outset and finished by recovering more than half of Monday's declines. The conventional wisdom says that congress is still going to produce some kind of bailout bill, so investing is still a safe game.
My opinion, and that of others who see this entire "sky is falling" scenario as little more than political posturing and craftiness, is that the real players in the market found incredible gems at unbelievably low prices on Tuesday.
Dow 10,850.66 +485.21; NASDAQ 2,082.33 +98.60; S&P 500 1,164.74 +58.35; NYSE Composite 7,532.92 +328.91
Essentially, the markets are going to gyrate until the congress goes on recess, with or without a bill. What's clear is that, to many lawmakers, winning re-election is likely more important than "saving" the economy. This is more about politics than money, but the politicians and Wall Street schemers - Treasury Secretary Paulson chief amongst them - are playing with $700 billion, the US economy and the free market.
I'll not pretend to have a crystal ball, but reiterate that Wall Street needs to take its medicine and congress needs to go on vacation, as previously planned, without passing anything. Take the posturing and fake sincerity back to your states and districts. See how it plays in Peoria.
One possible bit of arsenic in the broth could be this: hedge funds are expecting a flood of redemptions or cash-outs after they report results for September. So far, it doesn't seem to be any more troubling than what we've already witnessed so far this year and is probably more a canard than a canary in the mine shaft.
On the day, advancing issues far exceeded decliners, 4653-1795. New lows outweighed new highs, 602-22, a margin befitting the absurdity of the current condition. Market volume was moderate.
NYSE Volume 1,599,455,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,387,042,000
Oil finished the day with a gain of $4.27, at $100.64. Gold closed down on the day, at $880.80, losing $13.60. Silver also offered no safe haven, dropping 75 cents to $12.28.
Is it just me, or is the feeling that the storm has pretty much passed becoming more and more prevalent? Checking Fibonacci numbers and a variety of charts and indicators, we should be nearing a bottom in stocks. The major indices are already off 25% or more from a year ago, so how much further can they go? The largest failures have likely already occurred. The "economic tsunami" being predicted by politicians and the media may be more smoke and mirrors and scare mongering than reality.
But the noise has to be filtered out and I found an exceptional article on cnn.com by economist Jeffrey Miron which expresses a belief that bankruptcy, not bailout, is the correct solution, something that's been opined ad nauseum on this blog.
The American public made it unquestionably clear that they opposed a massive taxpayer-funded bailout of failed financial institutions. Congress, as of yesterday, apparently got the message, sending the measure down to defeat, but somehow, hundreds of thousands of phone calls and emails from everyday citizens can't keep the morons on Capitol Hill from trying again.
So, today, one day after the largest single-day point decline in the history of the Dow Jones Industrials, investors were busily picking up the broken pieces - by the handfuls. All indices were up sharply from the outset and finished by recovering more than half of Monday's declines. The conventional wisdom says that congress is still going to produce some kind of bailout bill, so investing is still a safe game.
My opinion, and that of others who see this entire "sky is falling" scenario as little more than political posturing and craftiness, is that the real players in the market found incredible gems at unbelievably low prices on Tuesday.
Dow 10,850.66 +485.21; NASDAQ 2,082.33 +98.60; S&P 500 1,164.74 +58.35; NYSE Composite 7,532.92 +328.91
Essentially, the markets are going to gyrate until the congress goes on recess, with or without a bill. What's clear is that, to many lawmakers, winning re-election is likely more important than "saving" the economy. This is more about politics than money, but the politicians and Wall Street schemers - Treasury Secretary Paulson chief amongst them - are playing with $700 billion, the US economy and the free market.
I'll not pretend to have a crystal ball, but reiterate that Wall Street needs to take its medicine and congress needs to go on vacation, as previously planned, without passing anything. Take the posturing and fake sincerity back to your states and districts. See how it plays in Peoria.
One possible bit of arsenic in the broth could be this: hedge funds are expecting a flood of redemptions or cash-outs after they report results for September. So far, it doesn't seem to be any more troubling than what we've already witnessed so far this year and is probably more a canard than a canary in the mine shaft.
On the day, advancing issues far exceeded decliners, 4653-1795. New lows outweighed new highs, 602-22, a margin befitting the absurdity of the current condition. Market volume was moderate.
NYSE Volume 1,599,455,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,387,042,000
Oil finished the day with a gain of $4.27, at $100.64. Gold closed down on the day, at $880.80, losing $13.60. Silver also offered no safe haven, dropping 75 cents to $12.28.
Is it just me, or is the feeling that the storm has pretty much passed becoming more and more prevalent? Checking Fibonacci numbers and a variety of charts and indicators, we should be nearing a bottom in stocks. The major indices are already off 25% or more from a year ago, so how much further can they go? The largest failures have likely already occurred. The "economic tsunami" being predicted by politicians and the media may be more smoke and mirrors and scare mongering than reality.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
