As Wall Street slowly wends its way to a year end with a blow-off topping Santa Rally, a few news items - that you won't get on CNBC, promise - were worth noting.
First, the Federal Reserve bought another $9.5 billion in Treasuries today, bringing their total to over $1 Trillion, or, for those who like lots of zeroes, $1,000,341,000,000. The Fed passed China as the largest holder of US government debt a few weeks ago, and now has surpassed the magic $1 Trillion mark, making everybody in the country indebted to the Federal Reserve (well, if you believe we are the government and thus responsible for their debt) to the tune of $312,606.56, roughly speaking.
So, rube, pay up!
The second of the day's big issues was the proposed FCC rules on Net Neutrality, or how the government will allow the big media companies to slice up the internet. What the FCC board did was pass, by a 3-2 vote, new rules, which are essentially the same as the old rules, except that they didn't publish them (rumored to be 100 pages long) and they don't apply to wireless services (phones, iPads, etc.). So, really, what they did isn't really news at all, but might be some day, like when the FCC gets sued again because most people don't believe they have the authority to regulate the internet at all. Larry Downes' guest column on Cnet has most of the dirt.
Our third newsy item is really juicy, however. It appears that some judges in New Jersey's Supreme Court haven't taken kindly to being abused and hoodwinked by some of the nation's largest banks.
The court has ordered a halt to all foreclosure proceedings in the state and has given the largest lenders, Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup, GMAC, Wells-Fargo and OneWest, until the 19th of January, 2011, to “show cause why the processing of uncontested residential foreclosure matters they have filed should not be suspended.”
Apparently, the judges are not convinced that the robo-signing and other frauds perpetrated on the state's courts were mere technicalities and wants the full mea culpa from the banks along with admissions of guilt. This really puts the banks in a tough spot, because they have to honestly and steadfastly assert their positions, which are largely lies and falsehoods about their fatally-flawed foreclosure practices.
Should they fail to convince the justices, they'll face a very long uphill road to ever be heard without prejudice in New Jersey courts. This also opens up the possibility that hundreds of thousands of flawed - and already settled - foreclosures could be reopened if New Jersey's stand becomes a precedent, not only in the state, but across the country.
Get ready for round two of fraudclosure-gate, or whatever they're calling it these days. In a similar vein, the 50 state Attorneys General investigating the foreclosure practices of the biggest banks, have said nothing since rumor broke three weeks ago that they were nearing a settlement with the offending and offensive banks, thus making the current rumor that all deals are off the table, especially since the states of Nevada and Arizona have separately sued Bank of America and Iowa AG Tom Miller, who heads the 50 states' AG investigation, has, together with the US Attorneys office, formed the Iowa Mortgage Fraud Working Group.
The Working Group will "identify and investigate targets for criminal prosecution" and, on the federal level, "will utilize the investigative expertise of agencies such as the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and U.S. Department of Housing & Urban Development--Office of Inspector General (HUD-OIG). Other federal agencies that may participate in the working group include the Secret Service, Internal Revenue Service, United States Postal Inspection Service, and Social Security Administration."
Ouch, double ouch and triple ouch! Of course, Julian Assange, the operator of WikiLeaks, also contends that he has information that could bring down executives from a major bank, widely assumed to be none other than Bank of America, which, from all appearances, may be in need of a bigger bandage. The bank is currently involved in no less than 35 major lawsuits, most stemming from their mortgage business.
The question then arises, why are people buying Bank of America (BAC) stock, or, the shares of any of the big banks embroiled in the mortgage business, like JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Wells-Fargo (WFC) or Citi (C)?
One would assume, with all of the aforementioned issues, that investors would shun these stocks, yet the reality is that they have been leading the December rally. Since November 30, Bank of America is up 15%; JP Morgan up more than 9% and Wells-Fargo and Citigroup are both up 13%. Either the investor class is being sold a phony bill of goods (wouldn't surprise anybody) or they know something most of the casual-viewing public don't.
They were all up better than two per cent today, leading a broad-based rally.
Dow 11,533.16, +55.03 (0.48%)
NASDAQ 2,667.61, +18.05 (0.68%)
S&P 500 1,254.60, +7.52 (0.60%)
NYSE Composite 7,906.10, +59.14 (0.75%)
Advancing issues trampled decliners, 4680-1871. NASDAQ new highs were 213, to 26 new lows. On the NYSE, new highs led new lows, 257-34. Of course, all of this movement was on dismally-low volume levels.
NASDAQ Volume 1,680,521,625.00
NYSE Volume 3,925,677,000
Oil pushed higher by 45 cents, reaching $89.82. Gold was held in check, losing 30 cents, to $1385.50, while silver posted a two-cent gain, to $29.37. Copper reached an all-time high of $4.3626 per pound, making pennies minted between 1909 and 1982 worth $0.28, nearly triple their face value.
Time to break out the kid's piggy bank?
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
Monday, December 20, 2010
Another Nothing Day on Wall Street
Why the market is even open this week is a reasonable question. Trading volumes have been so low for so long that this week will just put a punctuation mark on one of the most tenuous rallies of all time. Stocks on the major indices are all in solidly positive territory for the year, so now is as good a time to ask as any: With stocks up two straight years, what are the chances that 2011 will be another positive?
Well, if you ask some of the heavies on the Street, they'll all give you the same answer. They're 100% positive that stocks will see further gains in 2011, from a low reading by Citigroup with the S&P 500 at 1300, to a high of 1420 by Barclays Capital, other forecasters see gains of 5-14% in the coming year.
Mark Twain once famously said, “Whenever you find that you are on the side of the majority, it is time to reform.” So, since I don't want to be on the wrong side of this issue and since almost everybody in the world believes stocks will have another upside year in 2011, I'll put forth the prospect that stocks are currently 12-15% overpriced and 2011 will be a year in which we will witness a rather healthy decline of 20% or more on the major indices (and I'm being conservative).
Anecdotal evidence shows that since World War II stocks have traded higher three consecutive years only twice, and the gains were quite small. All other times, the markets showed losses in the third year. There are good reasons for this, many of them having to do with the business cycle and nothing to do with the concept that the US hasn't really made it out of recession and is still struggling, though that could be a good argument on its own.
Dow 11,478.13, -13.78 (0.12%)
NASDAQ 2,649.56, +6.59 (0.25%)
S&P 500 1,247.08, +3.17 (0.25%)
NYSE Compos 7,846.96, +11.65 (0.15%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,728,535,625
NYSE Volume 3,973,126,250
For the session, advancers narrowly topped decliners, 3313-3227. New highs on the NASDAQ totaled 226, to 28 new lows. On the NYSE, there were 208 new highs and 23 new lows. Volume was absurdly low, though expected, this being less than a week before Christmas.
Oil gained 79 cents, to $88.70. Gold added $9.60, to $1385.10, while silver kicked ahead 18 cents, at $29.37.
Well, if you ask some of the heavies on the Street, they'll all give you the same answer. They're 100% positive that stocks will see further gains in 2011, from a low reading by Citigroup with the S&P 500 at 1300, to a high of 1420 by Barclays Capital, other forecasters see gains of 5-14% in the coming year.
Mark Twain once famously said, “Whenever you find that you are on the side of the majority, it is time to reform.” So, since I don't want to be on the wrong side of this issue and since almost everybody in the world believes stocks will have another upside year in 2011, I'll put forth the prospect that stocks are currently 12-15% overpriced and 2011 will be a year in which we will witness a rather healthy decline of 20% or more on the major indices (and I'm being conservative).
Anecdotal evidence shows that since World War II stocks have traded higher three consecutive years only twice, and the gains were quite small. All other times, the markets showed losses in the third year. There are good reasons for this, many of them having to do with the business cycle and nothing to do with the concept that the US hasn't really made it out of recession and is still struggling, though that could be a good argument on its own.
Dow 11,478.13, -13.78 (0.12%)
NASDAQ 2,649.56, +6.59 (0.25%)
S&P 500 1,247.08, +3.17 (0.25%)
NYSE Compos 7,846.96, +11.65 (0.15%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,728,535,625
NYSE Volume 3,973,126,250
For the session, advancers narrowly topped decliners, 3313-3227. New highs on the NASDAQ totaled 226, to 28 new lows. On the NYSE, there were 208 new highs and 23 new lows. Volume was absurdly low, though expected, this being less than a week before Christmas.
Oil gained 79 cents, to $88.70. Gold added $9.60, to $1385.10, while silver kicked ahead 18 cents, at $29.37.
Friday, December 17, 2010
Just in the Nick of Time, Politicians Save Economy... Again
As this is being written, the voice of President Barack Obama is monotonously rattling off the bullet points in praise of the $898 Billion (do the numbers even matter anymore?) tax extension and cut package approved by congress over the past few days and signed into law by Mr. Obama today.
Politicians love to make us believe that they are doing some good for the country, for us, for our kids, dogs, cats, parakeets and the rest of the little creatures who inhabit the vast expanse of the United States of America.
Reptiles that they are, congress and the president are making the world a better place for lizards, snakes, turtles, crocodiles and the ever-vigilant alligator. The vultures are ensuring the future for untold generations of crows, sea gulls and other flying creatures who pick through the trash in the parking lots of fast food restaurants, strip malls and shopping centers.
They have once again proven their collective brain-power to be insect-sized, and grateful are the hordes of locust, flies, fleas, mites, beetles, ladybugs, preying mantis, and ants whose job it will be to devour what is left of the continent once we are gone.
The fish are jumping and mammals of all ilk, coyotes and bears, antelope and moose, squirrel and gopher, praise the politicians for their largesse in allowing American humans to keep more of what they earn. Surely now, the great and magnanimous political class will pass some of our money over to the corporate class, for as we keep, so shall we blow. We will spend our extra moneys on iPods and flat-screens, CDs, DVDs, hors d' oeuvres, whirling dervishes and other diversions, all of which will cost more due to the inflationary policies pursued by the Federal Reserve and federal, state and local governments.
We shall spend. They shall spend. Together we shall ensure a present and a future in which nobody suffers any pain of any kind in any manner on any day forever and ever. Hallelujah, amen, they've saved the world again. God rest ye, merry gentleman and ladies, we can celebrate our christmas by shopping with our credit cards, online and off to the malls with you now! Enough reading. It's time to go out and spend, spend, spend.
My goodness! Look at that reaction from Wall Street. We are overwhelmed by its non-existence! With two weeks left to the year's trading, the clarion call apparently wasn't heard in lower Manhattan. Buy! Buy! Buy!
Dow 11,491.91. -7.34 (0.06%)
NASDAQ 2,642.97, +5.66 (0.21%)
S&P 500 1,243.91, +1.04 (0.08%)
NYSE Composite 7,835.31, -4.93 (0.06%)
Volume was strong today due to quadruple options expiration and nothing more. Advancing issued barely managed to beat the "Bah, Humbug" declining stocks, 3588-2905. On the NASDAQ, new highs outnumbered new lows, 211-31. On the NYSE, the tally was 175-22, new highs to lows. Hurrah!
NASDAQ Volume 2,576,992,250
NYSE Volume 5,729,695,500
Oil gained 32 cents, to $88.02. Three cheers. Gas will cost more this holiday season. Gold was allowed to rise a bit by the naked shorting banks, gaining $6.10, to $1375.60. Silver was also given special dispensation, gathering another 42 cents to its inexorable rise, now at $29.15 per troy ounce.
The lining, silver or otherwise, was that the republicans in congress, generally, would not pass a $1.2 Trillion omnibus spending bill proposed by outgoing Democritters, opting instead for a continuing resolution to tide the government over for a few more months. The next congress will get down to business come January, and they have promised to make cuts in spending.
Some of us also believe in flying unicorns that excrete hundred dollar bills.
Politicians love to make us believe that they are doing some good for the country, for us, for our kids, dogs, cats, parakeets and the rest of the little creatures who inhabit the vast expanse of the United States of America.
Reptiles that they are, congress and the president are making the world a better place for lizards, snakes, turtles, crocodiles and the ever-vigilant alligator. The vultures are ensuring the future for untold generations of crows, sea gulls and other flying creatures who pick through the trash in the parking lots of fast food restaurants, strip malls and shopping centers.
They have once again proven their collective brain-power to be insect-sized, and grateful are the hordes of locust, flies, fleas, mites, beetles, ladybugs, preying mantis, and ants whose job it will be to devour what is left of the continent once we are gone.
The fish are jumping and mammals of all ilk, coyotes and bears, antelope and moose, squirrel and gopher, praise the politicians for their largesse in allowing American humans to keep more of what they earn. Surely now, the great and magnanimous political class will pass some of our money over to the corporate class, for as we keep, so shall we blow. We will spend our extra moneys on iPods and flat-screens, CDs, DVDs, hors d' oeuvres, whirling dervishes and other diversions, all of which will cost more due to the inflationary policies pursued by the Federal Reserve and federal, state and local governments.
We shall spend. They shall spend. Together we shall ensure a present and a future in which nobody suffers any pain of any kind in any manner on any day forever and ever. Hallelujah, amen, they've saved the world again. God rest ye, merry gentleman and ladies, we can celebrate our christmas by shopping with our credit cards, online and off to the malls with you now! Enough reading. It's time to go out and spend, spend, spend.
My goodness! Look at that reaction from Wall Street. We are overwhelmed by its non-existence! With two weeks left to the year's trading, the clarion call apparently wasn't heard in lower Manhattan. Buy! Buy! Buy!
Dow 11,491.91. -7.34 (0.06%)
NASDAQ 2,642.97, +5.66 (0.21%)
S&P 500 1,243.91, +1.04 (0.08%)
NYSE Composite 7,835.31, -4.93 (0.06%)
Volume was strong today due to quadruple options expiration and nothing more. Advancing issued barely managed to beat the "Bah, Humbug" declining stocks, 3588-2905. On the NASDAQ, new highs outnumbered new lows, 211-31. On the NYSE, the tally was 175-22, new highs to lows. Hurrah!
NASDAQ Volume 2,576,992,250
NYSE Volume 5,729,695,500
Oil gained 32 cents, to $88.02. Three cheers. Gas will cost more this holiday season. Gold was allowed to rise a bit by the naked shorting banks, gaining $6.10, to $1375.60. Silver was also given special dispensation, gathering another 42 cents to its inexorable rise, now at $29.15 per troy ounce.
The lining, silver or otherwise, was that the republicans in congress, generally, would not pass a $1.2 Trillion omnibus spending bill proposed by outgoing Democritters, opting instead for a continuing resolution to tide the government over for a few more months. The next congress will get down to business come January, and they have promised to make cuts in spending.
Some of us also believe in flying unicorns that excrete hundred dollar bills.
Thursday, December 16, 2010
Stocks Higher on FedEx Miss. Yes, That Is Correct
In the current environment, market participants will rationalize anything bad into something good.
A case in point was the big miss of expectations by FedEx (FDX) on their fiscal second quarter results. Consensus estimates of 1.31 per share was greeted this morning - prior to the opening bell - with an announcement of 1.16 per share. The company also narrowly missed on revenue, but that was not the issue.
Normally, a miss like this (-12%) would send a stock price reeling, but in today's POMO-led, funny-money, can't-go-down-before-options-expire pirate market, FedEx actually opened lower, hitting what were to be the absolute lows of the day within minutes, but then exploded to the upside. Within fifteen of the opening bell, FedEx was trading up by more than 1.5 points and finished the day with a gain of 1.83.
Now, the rationalization is that the miss was caused by onerous things like employee compensation, and the company restated full-year projections much higher to offset the blow, but, the fact that everybody trading in the stock was pleased is without doubt part of a rigged system that cannot be trusted. Logic has been thrown out the window repeatedly, yet keeps finding its way back in, only to be tossed away again and again. This one is egregious to the extreme.
So, stocks shrugged off the bad news and went with their gut, incidentally tied to cashing out huge on options expiration tomorrow and then calling it quits for the year - all conveniently planned in advance.
Dow 11,499.25, +41.78 (0.36%)
NASDAQ 2,637.31, +20.09 (0.77%)
S&P 500 1,242.87, +7.64 (0.62%)
NYSE Composite 7,840.24, +41.46 (0.53%)
Advancing issues reversed the prior two days of embarrassment, drubbing decliners, 4406-2105. NASDAQ New Highs: 172; Lows: 24; NYSE New Highs: 118; Lows: 25. This puts two days of Hindenberg Omen calculus (appearance and confirmation) to rest for now, though the next 40 days remain in focus. Volume was sloppily low again, as usual, even more so, considering the closeness to options expiration (tomorrow).
NASDAQ Volume 1,750,373,125
NYSE Volume 4,863,573,500
Commodities oddly took it on the chin, with oil continuing a slow death march, down another 92 cents, to $87.70, though still well above average for 2010. However, since it is the holidays and people aren't driving all over the place to buy gifts they don't need for people they don't like, the oil barons have to make money somehow, don't they? So, they've done what every hard-knuckled oil baron would do in distressing times, bump the price up a notch or two. Watch how it comes down in January, like clockwork.
Precious metals were hammered down mercilessly for the better part of the day, but recovered as the stock market headed for the close (no coincidence there). Gold is currently down $9.90, at $1369.50, and silver was beaten until just after noon, now trading at $28.88, a gain of 8 cents.
Friday is a quadruple witching day, though the focus will be on stocks, buttressing the bonuses of wall Street's elite traders. After that, anybody's guess, but the market sure looks rich now, since it looked rich three months, six months and nine months ago as well.
One after-hours note: The Federal Reserve, as part of the Dodd-Frank legislation, proposed slashing interbank fees (fees charged to retailers on debit card transactions) from the current average of 44 cents (they charge 1.2 - 1/5% currently) to a structure which caps fees at 12 cents per transaction. The proposal is embraced by consumers and retailers, though Visa and Mastercard shares were smacked down on the news. What a shame!
A case in point was the big miss of expectations by FedEx (FDX) on their fiscal second quarter results. Consensus estimates of 1.31 per share was greeted this morning - prior to the opening bell - with an announcement of 1.16 per share. The company also narrowly missed on revenue, but that was not the issue.
Normally, a miss like this (-12%) would send a stock price reeling, but in today's POMO-led, funny-money, can't-go-down-before-options-expire pirate market, FedEx actually opened lower, hitting what were to be the absolute lows of the day within minutes, but then exploded to the upside. Within fifteen of the opening bell, FedEx was trading up by more than 1.5 points and finished the day with a gain of 1.83.
Now, the rationalization is that the miss was caused by onerous things like employee compensation, and the company restated full-year projections much higher to offset the blow, but, the fact that everybody trading in the stock was pleased is without doubt part of a rigged system that cannot be trusted. Logic has been thrown out the window repeatedly, yet keeps finding its way back in, only to be tossed away again and again. This one is egregious to the extreme.
So, stocks shrugged off the bad news and went with their gut, incidentally tied to cashing out huge on options expiration tomorrow and then calling it quits for the year - all conveniently planned in advance.
Dow 11,499.25, +41.78 (0.36%)
NASDAQ 2,637.31, +20.09 (0.77%)
S&P 500 1,242.87, +7.64 (0.62%)
NYSE Composite 7,840.24, +41.46 (0.53%)
Advancing issues reversed the prior two days of embarrassment, drubbing decliners, 4406-2105. NASDAQ New Highs: 172; Lows: 24; NYSE New Highs: 118; Lows: 25. This puts two days of Hindenberg Omen calculus (appearance and confirmation) to rest for now, though the next 40 days remain in focus. Volume was sloppily low again, as usual, even more so, considering the closeness to options expiration (tomorrow).
NASDAQ Volume 1,750,373,125
NYSE Volume 4,863,573,500
Commodities oddly took it on the chin, with oil continuing a slow death march, down another 92 cents, to $87.70, though still well above average for 2010. However, since it is the holidays and people aren't driving all over the place to buy gifts they don't need for people they don't like, the oil barons have to make money somehow, don't they? So, they've done what every hard-knuckled oil baron would do in distressing times, bump the price up a notch or two. Watch how it comes down in January, like clockwork.
Precious metals were hammered down mercilessly for the better part of the day, but recovered as the stock market headed for the close (no coincidence there). Gold is currently down $9.90, at $1369.50, and silver was beaten until just after noon, now trading at $28.88, a gain of 8 cents.
Friday is a quadruple witching day, though the focus will be on stocks, buttressing the bonuses of wall Street's elite traders. After that, anybody's guess, but the market sure looks rich now, since it looked rich three months, six months and nine months ago as well.
One after-hours note: The Federal Reserve, as part of the Dodd-Frank legislation, proposed slashing interbank fees (fees charged to retailers on debit card transactions) from the current average of 44 cents (they charge 1.2 - 1/5% currently) to a structure which caps fees at 12 cents per transaction. The proposal is embraced by consumers and retailers, though Visa and Mastercard shares were smacked down on the news. What a shame!
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Dead Money
Dow 11,457.47, -19.07 (0.17%)
NASDAQ 2,617.22, -10.50 (0.40%)
S&P 500 1,235.23, -6.36 (0.51%)
NYSE Composite 7,798.78, -56.44 (0.72%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,876,932,000
NYSE Volume 5,043,671,500
The numbers tell just about the whole story of today's uneventful trading. With just two weeks left in the year and Christmas now just ten days off, traders seem reluctant to take on new positions. Stocks are trading in a narrow range and for the third consecutive day, have sold off into the close, not a very encouraging sign.
Declining issues outpaced advancers, 4197-2299. On the NASDAQ, new highs bettered new lows, 167-32 and on the NYSE, 156-89, as convergence continues, especially on the NYSE. Volume was actually a little better than the low, low normal, and, with options expiring on Friday, the suspicion is that the smart money has already exited the trading area.
There simply is no catalyst for stocks besides the Fed's relentless pumping (another $6.8 billion today) and even that isn't enough to keep stocks positive. It raises the question of extending the Bush tax cuts and adding further stimulus by the congress. If conditions were so rosy, why the need for more easing on the fiscal side. Obviously, something is amiss.
One guess will be that the Christmas shopping season will be a minor disappointment, as will December jobs numbers, revealed the first week of January. Then there's the issue of corporate profits nearing the middle to end of the month. If they're not perfectly great, selling could become de rigeur.
Even commodities weren't moving today. Oil made a modest gain, up 34 cents, to $88.62. Gold fell sharply, losing $18.40, to $1,386.20. Silver slipped back another 54 cents, to $29.25.
It all looks very much like locking in year-end profits.
NASDAQ 2,617.22, -10.50 (0.40%)
S&P 500 1,235.23, -6.36 (0.51%)
NYSE Composite 7,798.78, -56.44 (0.72%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,876,932,000
NYSE Volume 5,043,671,500
The numbers tell just about the whole story of today's uneventful trading. With just two weeks left in the year and Christmas now just ten days off, traders seem reluctant to take on new positions. Stocks are trading in a narrow range and for the third consecutive day, have sold off into the close, not a very encouraging sign.
Declining issues outpaced advancers, 4197-2299. On the NASDAQ, new highs bettered new lows, 167-32 and on the NYSE, 156-89, as convergence continues, especially on the NYSE. Volume was actually a little better than the low, low normal, and, with options expiring on Friday, the suspicion is that the smart money has already exited the trading area.
There simply is no catalyst for stocks besides the Fed's relentless pumping (another $6.8 billion today) and even that isn't enough to keep stocks positive. It raises the question of extending the Bush tax cuts and adding further stimulus by the congress. If conditions were so rosy, why the need for more easing on the fiscal side. Obviously, something is amiss.
One guess will be that the Christmas shopping season will be a minor disappointment, as will December jobs numbers, revealed the first week of January. Then there's the issue of corporate profits nearing the middle to end of the month. If they're not perfectly great, selling could become de rigeur.
Even commodities weren't moving today. Oil made a modest gain, up 34 cents, to $88.62. Gold fell sharply, losing $18.40, to $1,386.20. Silver slipped back another 54 cents, to $29.25.
It all looks very much like locking in year-end profits.
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