Showing posts with label Barack Obama. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Barack Obama. Show all posts

Thursday, June 20, 2013

The Day After: Stocks take Biggest Losses of Year; Gold, Silver Smashed

There was no place to hide for investors of any stripe on the day after the Fed's dramatic announcement on Wednesday that it planned to reduce asset purchases later this year.

Stocks, bonds, and commodities were all priced lower, reflecting the possible reality that the world's economy would not be propped up indefinitely by the Federal reserve's money-printing schemes of quantitative easing (QE) and zero percent interest rate policy (ZIRP).

Following Wednesday afternoon's sharp selloff, Thursday quickly turned into a blood bath, with all of the major averages breaking through support at 50-day moving averages and precious metals dropping to levels not seen in roughly three years.

Godl was down nearly $100/ounce at 4:00 pm EDT, with traffic shifting from the Comex and Globex to Asian markets which are sure to feel the after-effects of the West's massive breakdown.

Despite the huge moves in equities, the major indices are still only down less than five percent from all-time closing highs made late in May, but the abruptness of the moves in all markets was an unexpected shock to portfolios everywhere.

The 10-year note hit a three-year high yield, but pulled back slightly to end the day at 2.39. The five-year also closed at multi-year highs of 1.26% and the 30-year bond finished at 3.48%, 33 basis points higher than a month ago.

Fallout from today's moves in the markets will be far-reaching and should be considered the beginning of a new paradigm, one in which interest rates will continue to rise as (and if) the economy continues to improve, a scenario not fully bought into by everyone. While housing has shown strength in recent months, higher interest rates can only slow the growth potential as home-buyers will be able to afford less for their money or may delay purchases altogether.

Gold and silver were especially hard hit, with gold finishing below the $1300 level and silver under $20 per ounce.

With no real economic data of note and earnings still two to three weeks away, the markets will have to find some kind of stabilizing catalyst in the final week of June or heading into the Independence Day holiday the first week of July, investors will find themselves truly independent... of profits, assets and good trading ideas.

Everybody knew this day of reckoning was coming, though few thought it would be so soon and appear with such ferocity. Trading volume was at the highest level of the year, significant in that tomorrow's quarterly options expirations may have been closed out earlier than most had planned, rendering tomorrow's triple-or-quadruple-witching day moot.

Advancing issues were dwarfed by decliners, which outpaced them 9-to-1. New lows exceeded new highs, 436-59.

The losses on major indices were the worst since November 7, 2012, the day after the re-election of Barack Obama. It's not just coincidence that stocks would take their biggest tumbles on the day after electing the worst president in American history (he's easily outdone GW Bush, already) and the day following the tactical blundering of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. We are a nation of sheep led by abject morons.

Dow 14,758.32, -353.87 (2.34%)
NASDAQ 3,364.64, -78.57 (2.28%)
S&P 500 1,588.19, -40.74 (2.50%)
NYSE Composite 8,996.35, -259.36 (2.80%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,961,153,875
NYSE Volume 5,276,584,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 685-5966
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 59-436
WTI crude oil: 94.94, -3.30
Gold: 1,278.00, -96.00
Silver: 19.56, -2.063

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

Commodities, Stocks Continue to Slide in Deflationary Downturn

It's time to look at some numbers in a broad macro view to get a handle of where the global economy is heading over the next six to twelve months.

In less than six months, Americans will head to the polls to either elect a new president or give Barack Obama the benefit of the doubt and return him for a second term. There are also key Senate races and all members of the House of Representatives are up for re-election. The implications of who becomes president and which party controls congress will have profound implications for the US economy going forward.

However, the presidency is the most important piece of the puzzle. In a nutshell, if Obama wins, we will have a continuation of the descent into a welfare state. If Romney takes it, bet on police state, with brutal, militarized police forces mobilized to quell citizen uprisings throughout the country.

Either way, the USA is in a tough spot, because neither the Republicans or Democrats will do anything remotely positive to improve conditions for millions of Americans.

Let's look at the numbers:

America's current deficit is $1.3 trillion for 2012.

The total US debt is beyond $15 trillion, and, if you add in unfunded liabilities - pensions, Social Security and Medicare - that number grows to somewhere between $125 and $150 trillion. That's a number that cannot be paid out or paid back easily.

In just the past 15 days, reality seems to have struck all the way from Washington to Wall Street. The economy is just barely limping along; in some areas of the country, local economies are dead or nearing a fatal state. More than half the US states face budget shortfalls for fiscal 2013 (starting July 1), the worst being California, Massachusetts (thank you, Mitt!), Illinois and Louisiana. The total gap for the states is estimated at $49 billion and that may be low.

Since the states have to balance their budgets, there will be layoffs and cuts in services. These will be anything but bullish for the general economy.

Retail sales have slowed for four straight months. In related news, JC Penny's (JCP) just today reported second quarter (non) earnings. They lost 0.25 cents per share on estimates of an 11-cent loss. Top-line revenue also missed the projected target of $3.41 billion, coming in at a squeamish $3.15 billion.

CEO Ron Johnson, who took over the reigns of the struggling merchandiser recently and had been widely praised as the master planner of Apple's signature stores, has a difficult road ahead. His Apple experience cannot be rightly compared to what he is dealing with at JC Penny's . Apple's stores were designed to sell only Apple products, which are unique and the envy of the retail world. Penny's deals with thousands of products from a multitude of vendors. It's not the same, and, even though Mr. Johnson is a bright fellow, he's in over his head in an environment that is not favorable to retailers.

Penny's also announced they were discontinuing their dividend of 80 cents per share. The stock was trading down more than 10% in the after-hours.

There are more than 44 million Americans - nearly one in six - receiving food stamps.

New home sales in 2011 had their worst year since 1961.

Stocks on the major averages are down between 4.5 and 5% in just the last 10 trading days. The Dow lost ground on nine of the last ten days; the S&P and NASDAQ have finished in the red eight of the last 10 sessions.

Meanwhile, the dollar index has soared, from 78.71 on April 27, to 81.26 at the close today. Meanwhile the Euro has collapsed to under 1.28 against the US dollar, finishing at 1.2729 at today's close. The move up in the value of the dollar has sent commodities screaming lower, with gold, oil and silver all suffering steep losses in the month of May. That's actually good news for Americans, particularly because lower oil prices eventually will translate into lower gas prices at the pump.

So, what is all of this data telling us? Surprisingly, despite tens of trillions of dollars pumped into the economy since 2008 by the Fed and the federal government, the wailing tone of deflation is unmistakable. Prices are falling rapidly, though incomes are stagnant or declining. There simply are not enough people working and making sufficient money to keep price levels high.

Anecdotally, food prices are coming down. Real estate remains in a moribund, deep slump and home foreclosures are once again rising. Everything will get cheaper as the economy continues down the inescapable path of deflation because the Federal Reserve's money spigot has directed all the flows to the banks, and they are not lending, mainly because they're still repairing their badly damaged balance sheets, and, even when they do cough up some dough, the borrower has to have absolutely pristine credit, a circumstance which is becoming something of a rarity.

Some say the US economy will be destroyed because its unpayable debts will undermine the value of the dollar and cause hyper-inflation. That may be so, though it's difficult to see inflation in anything when 15-20% of Americans are living in what's essentially a day-to-day fight for survival.

If hyper-inflation does one day come about and the dollar is smashed to a fraction of its former value, a deflationary depression will occur first. The government needs low interest rates to continue paying off the massive debt it has created, and will do everything it can to keep rates low.

But, because the Federal reserve has failed so miserably on the second part of its mandate - employment - all the money in the world (and the Fed has most of it now) cannot make people spend when they have no jobs, no prospects, and are worried about having enough food to eat tomorrow. Food prices are likely to stabilize, but, for the most part, the rest of the economy is toast, though it is still marginally better than that of Europe, of which half the countries are already in recession.

The money that was furnished to the banks by the American taxpayer, courtesy of the Fed and Treasury, went straight to financial institutions, and we know that they are profligate gamblers and thieves who will only enrich themselves, leaving Main Street, small business and the American public to fend for themselves in a mostly cash system which is quietly, albeit quickly, turning into a massive black market, underground economy.

Eventually, the government will fail horribly, and many will suffer. Those with wits, skills, cunning and a propensity to see the future and break rules, will prosper. Europe will fall first, but you can bet your bottom dollar (if you still have any) that their problems will come to roost on the shimmering shores of America.

Dow 12,632.00, -63.35 (0.50%)
NASDAQ 2,893.76, -8.82 (0.30%)
S&P 500 1,330.66, -7.69 (0.57%)
NYSE Composite 7,635.81, -69.64 (0.90%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,835,801,375
NYSE Volume 4,114,145,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2214-3408
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 77-236 (gap widening)
WTI crude oil: 93.98, -0.80
Gold: 1,557.10, -3.90
Silver: 28.08, -0.27

Thursday, February 16, 2012

Stocks Scream Higher on Positive Economic Data

This one will practically write itself.

Stocks were buoyed today by falling initial unemployment claims (down to 348,000 after 361,000 last week), rising housing starts (699K) and building permits (676K), and a very tame PPI number of 0.01. The Phialdelphia Fed's survey of regional economic activity was also up, to 10.2 in February from 7.3 in January.

All of this good news - and the absence of anything untoward from Europe - sent stocks on a day long rally that just kept rising steadily throughout the session. Naturally, the Euro was higher, as that correlation remains wholly intact.

Whether or not one agrees with the numbers, Wall Street made sure to boost stocks one day before options expiry, which may have been the plan all along, since there aren't enough individual investors or opinions other than those espoused by the powers that be, to matter.

Never mind what I said yesterday about the possibility of a nasty correction and repeat after me: "the market must go higher."

The original JP Morgan would be flummoxed. Once, when hounded by rabid reporters asking what the market would do, Morgan casually tossed out an all-time classic. "The market will fluctuate," he said.

We sure could use a dose of Mr. Morgan's common sense, or, at least a few of the silver dollars named after him.

Keep in mind that this is an election year, so that whatever outcome has already been determined, the markets will provide the proper narrative. It appears that Barack Obama is their guy, so it should surprise nobody if unemployment is at 7.3% come November 2nd and the GDP is growing at 3 1/2 - 4%, no matter how convoluted the exercise to get to those numbers.

Which leads to another great quote: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." The phrase was popularized by Mark Twain, who attributed it to Benjamin Disraeli, though the quote never appears in any of Disraeli's published works.

Could Twain have made it up himself? After all, his real name was Samuel Clemens.

And, by the way, since the US seems intent on making Iran a whipping boy, $4/gallon gas is coming, sooner, not later, just in time to eat up the payroll tax cut extension which the congress agreed to this morning and will likely pass on Friday. No free lunch, kiddies.

Dow 12,904.08, +123.13 (0.96%)
NASDAQ 2,959.85, +44.02 (1.51%)
S&P 500 1,358.04, +14.81 (1.10%)
NYSE Composite 8,092.61, +93.96 (1.17%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,890,777,750
NYSE Volume 4,022,471,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4275-1405
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 230-16
WTI crude oil: 102.31, +0.51
Gold: 1,728.40, +0.30
Silver: 33.37, -0.04

Friday, December 17, 2010

Just in the Nick of Time, Politicians Save Economy... Again

As this is being written, the voice of President Barack Obama is monotonously rattling off the bullet points in praise of the $898 Billion (do the numbers even matter anymore?) tax extension and cut package approved by congress over the past few days and signed into law by Mr. Obama today.

Politicians love to make us believe that they are doing some good for the country, for us, for our kids, dogs, cats, parakeets and the rest of the little creatures who inhabit the vast expanse of the United States of America.

Reptiles that they are, congress and the president are making the world a better place for lizards, snakes, turtles, crocodiles and the ever-vigilant alligator. The vultures are ensuring the future for untold generations of crows, sea gulls and other flying creatures who pick through the trash in the parking lots of fast food restaurants, strip malls and shopping centers.

They have once again proven their collective brain-power to be insect-sized, and grateful are the hordes of locust, flies, fleas, mites, beetles, ladybugs, preying mantis, and ants whose job it will be to devour what is left of the continent once we are gone.

The fish are jumping and mammals of all ilk, coyotes and bears, antelope and moose, squirrel and gopher, praise the politicians for their largesse in allowing American humans to keep more of what they earn. Surely now, the great and magnanimous political class will pass some of our money over to the corporate class, for as we keep, so shall we blow. We will spend our extra moneys on iPods and flat-screens, CDs, DVDs, hors d' oeuvres, whirling dervishes and other diversions, all of which will cost more due to the inflationary policies pursued by the Federal Reserve and federal, state and local governments.

We shall spend. They shall spend. Together we shall ensure a present and a future in which nobody suffers any pain of any kind in any manner on any day forever and ever. Hallelujah, amen, they've saved the world again. God rest ye, merry gentleman and ladies, we can celebrate our christmas by shopping with our credit cards, online and off to the malls with you now! Enough reading. It's time to go out and spend, spend, spend.

My goodness! Look at that reaction from Wall Street. We are overwhelmed by its non-existence! With two weeks left to the year's trading, the clarion call apparently wasn't heard in lower Manhattan. Buy! Buy! Buy!

Dow 11,491.91. -7.34 (0.06%)
NASDAQ 2,642.97, +5.66 (0.21%)
S&P 500 1,243.91, +1.04 (0.08%)
NYSE Composite 7,835.31, -4.93 (0.06%)


Volume was strong today due to quadruple options expiration and nothing more. Advancing issued barely managed to beat the "Bah, Humbug" declining stocks, 3588-2905. On the NASDAQ, new highs outnumbered new lows, 211-31. On the NYSE, the tally was 175-22, new highs to lows. Hurrah!

NASDAQ Volume 2,576,992,250
NYSE Volume 5,729,695,500


Oil gained 32 cents, to $88.02. Three cheers. Gas will cost more this holiday season. Gold was allowed to rise a bit by the naked shorting banks, gaining $6.10, to $1375.60. Silver was also given special dispensation, gathering another 42 cents to its inexorable rise, now at $29.15 per troy ounce.

The lining, silver or otherwise, was that the republicans in congress, generally, would not pass a $1.2 Trillion omnibus spending bill proposed by outgoing Democritters, opting instead for a continuing resolution to tide the government over for a few more months. The next congress will get down to business come January, and they have promised to make cuts in spending.

Some of us also believe in flying unicorns that excrete hundred dollar bills.