Thursday, June 23, 2011

The Old Dump and Pump

Stock traders - not investors - love action like today's on the US stock markets.

At the open the major indices plunged on news that the IEA and the United States would jointly release 60 million barrels of strategic reserves - 30 by the US, 30 by the IEA - to make up for supply shortages from the Lybian conflict. Furthering the desperate mood was the usual horrific chorus from Initial Unemployment Claims which came in much higher than anticipated (by idiots) at 429,000, plus, the prior week's claims were adjusted upward from 414K to 420K.

The revision should come without explanation. The BLS, who mangles the numbers, has revised claims upward just about every week for the past year-and-a-half, but those seeking an end to the jobs problems in America are surely going to have to wait longer.

Now, with all that bad news baked in, stocks were down precipitously, with the Dow off by more than 200 points for much of the session. But, lo and behold, just before 3:00 pm, word came from Europe that everything between Greece, the IMF and the ECB was just hunky-dorey. Greece would get their loans, the people would riot (a two-day general strike is already planned for next week), but all the bankers would be paid in full.

With that, the markets shaved a good 2/3rds off their losses, with the NASDAQ actually finishing in positive territory. Is this a stable economy, a stable market?

We will leave that question unanswered, hoping that bigger, brighter minds might offer some clues.

In any case, a lot of people got slaughtered, but you can bet your bottom dollar (if you still have one) that the bankster types at Goldman Sachs, JP MOrgan and Morgan Stanley had field days.

It's all good. Until it's not.

Dow 12,050.00, -59.67 (0.49%)
NASDAQ 2,686.75, +17.56 (0.66%)
S&P 500 1,283.50, -3.64 (0.28%)
NYSE Composite 8,054.08, -47.76 (0.59%)


Declining issues still led advancers, 3611-2936. On the NASDAQ, there were 42 new highs and 71 new lows. The NYSE had just 28 new highs and 49 new lows. Uh-oh, our key indicator has flipped bearish again, so maybe the Greece bailout isn't all that important to the US. Or maybe it is? The combined total of 70 new highs and 120 new lows puts things back into perspective, despite the obviously-rigged nature of the equity markets. Volume was actually a little spunky for a change. After all, it takes a lot of trading to move stocks around so much.

NASDAQ Volume 2,070,676,500
NYSE Volume 4,946,733,500


With the news of new supply coming on the market (at a rate of 2 million barrels a day), WTI crude futures fell $4.39, to $91.02, and traded under $90 briefly in the morning. One might think this was all about oil, but maybe it was really about gold, the enemy of central bankers worldwide, which made a new record close yesterday and appeared ready to vault towards $1600 per ounce. It didn't happen, as the morning downdraft took apart all long trades. Gold was decimated, losing $26.90, to $1521.10, wiping out a month's worth of gains. Silver was not spared, losing $1.07, to $35.27. It was a pretty ugly day for everyone, but particularly for commodities traders.

Hot fun in the Summertime. Rigged markets are so much fun!

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Ben Bernanke: World's Worst Cheerleader

We have witnessed some terrible ideas from the Federal Reserve over the past few years - decades - but their idea to have the Fed Chairman hold a news conference after the periodic FOMC rate policy announcement has to rank right up there among the worst.

Today's media-fest new conference, the second Ben Bernanke has held, was an absolute snoozer, with the Chairman reiterating what was already known from the rate announcement - no change in policy, keeping rates at ZERO to 1/4 per cent for an extended period, weak economy, frustratingly slow job growth, blah, blah, blah - and then giving highly nuanced responses to soft-ball questions from selected media.

The Chairman, being stuck in a policy environment that is absolutely untenable long-term, dead-panned throughout, looking at times stupid and at other times, less-than-honest. Wile the Fed did lower their forecasts for GDP in the second half of the year, they remained steadfast in the longer term outlook, saying that improvement in the economy would happen late in 2012 and into 2013, where they see lower inflation, a pick-up in job creation and GDP between 3.5 and 4.2 per cent.

Put simply, Ben Bernanke and his overpaid monkey economists are full of crap. Up to their ears in it, they are. Fed policy since the apocryphal events of 2008 has been nothing other than non-stop printing of dollars and feeding the beast that is the cartel of large banks which ruined and continue to run the economy into the ground. So, by doing more of the same the Fed is going to "work things out" just how?

Simple answer, they're not.

While the Chairman was speaking, stocks stumbled and then cratered once he was through, finishing at the lows of the day. Great performance, Mr. Bernanke. Just what do you have in store for an encore? We should expect nothing less than the complete and total disintegration of the dollar, and, by inference, the annihilation these United States. Thanks for the nap time, but between the Fed and congress and the presidency, America is royally screwed, kaput. It's over. Keep cashing those checks for as long as you can, because sooner or later they're going to bounce sky high. But Americans, being the slovenly sloths they are when it comes to understanding money and economics, will just keep going on, changing nothing and expecting different results, which is, by the way, the definition of insanity.

Our economy is practically dead and there will be no winners in the end.

After a brief respite, it appears that stocks are back to the losing ways of the past seven weeks. And the longer the congress takes to figure out that they must raise the debt ceiling, the steeper the decline. Even if they do pass a resolution to raise the debt ceiling - they will - with a deal on the table that is palatable to the phony "fiscal conservative" Republicans, it will offer no immediate assistance but rather a convenient platform from which to launch their campaigns for 2012.

Pretty sad, when all congress can think about is re-election. If nobody showed up to vote, it wouldn't matter. They'd just fix the results to be what they want them to be. Americans are the dumbest people on the planet. I went to another party this weekend where talking politics was barred, a policy that's becoming more and more prevalent. Apparently, people's normalcy bias is so great that they cannot stomach the truth.

Looks like I'll be partying by myself more often. At least the company is rational.

Dow 12,109.67, -80.34 (0.66%)
NASDAQ 2,669.19, -18.07 (0.67%)
S&P 500 1,287.14, -8.38 (0.65%)
NYSE Composite 8,101.84, -54.43 (0.67%)


Declining issues took the bull by the horns and flipped it on its back, leading advancers, 3983-2549. On the NASDAQ, 58 new highs and 41 new lows. There were 66 new highs and 23 new lows on the NYSE, putting the combined total for the day at 124 new highs and 64 new lows, an oddly-skewed metric, though considering the moves of the past few days, not really out of bounds.

Volume was minimally marginal, to say the least, as expected.

NASDAQ Volume 1,603,598,250
NYSE Volume 3,691,012,000


Crude futures rose on supply draw-down, gaining $1.24, to $95.41. Gold continued to break to new record highs, up $3.30, to $1550.50, with silver ahead a mere four cents, at $36.44. The bears and shorts have complete control over the paper silver market and will not allow it out of the $33-38 range, where it's been stuck for two months, making it one of the less desirable assets to hold currently, though that is bound to change.

Remember, don't talk politics or economics at any parties or barbeques unless you don't want to be invited back. Hmmm... now there's a plan.

Small Investment, High Risk, Big Potential

Searching around for alternative investments to the usual fare of stocks and mutual funds, some investors may find their way to penny stocks, which are commonly shares of companies in the early stages of development, mostly unprofitable, but enticing for both initial cost and potential upside.

Anybody can purchase penny stocks, but finding winners is a tough act, so it pays to do diligent research and possibly get some advice, and there are plenty of sources on the internet.

Here are three that may turn a few dollars into a gold mine.

Stockreads.com offers updated top penny stock picks sent out by newsletters, and offer tools to browse the stock picks they select. The site is updated frequently and provides straightforward research without a sales pitch.

Timothy Sykes, an acclaimed penny stock investor who has been seen on CNBC, ABC, CNN and in the NY Times has a fabulous site offering free and premium content, highlighting the best penny stocks to his readers and followers.

The Penny Stocks Guide is a comprehensive and impartial resource for investors interested in penny stocks. The website provides basic principles of penny stock investing and advice on how to do it intelligently and safely.

Many online brokers allow investors to engage in the penny stock markets or the "pink sheets" as they are known. A lot of well-known companies began as penny stocks, with few investors and limited capital, until hitting the big time with an IPO. Gains of 500-1000% are not unusual for big winners, though many of these penny stock companies never make it to that stage.

All said, penny stocks are not for everyone, but if you have some money you can use with discretion and not worry about losing, the penny stock market could be a reasonable investment of time and money.

Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Greek Parliament Gives Papandreou Vote, Austerity, Riots to Follow

According to sources, the Greek parliament gave Prime Minister George Papandreou a needed vote of confidence, allowing for an infusion of $17 billion in fresh loans from the IMF/EU.

With the public now facing even harsher austerity measures, rioting and demonstrations are expected.

No actual tally has come through, but the decision seems clear: Bail out the banks and keep the people under thumb.

Markets Up on Greek Deal Hopes

Well, that headline is not a joke. Surely, nobody on Wall Street has ever heard the phrase, "beware Greeks bearing gifts," though by tomorrow, everyone will know whether the second bailout of Greece - with a third coming by the end of August, almost certainly - will be a bonus or a canard.

The issues facing the Greek government are the roll-over of some $10 billion in maturing debt, plus another $40 billion in August. Right now, the deal is on, if Greek prime minister, George Papandreou, receives a vote of confidence from the Greek parliament, in a vote scheduled at the stroke of midnight in Greece (5:00 pm EDT).

Papandreou looked to have enough votes to win the crucial vote of confidence in parliament which would pave the way to passage of the latest austerity measures next week, ensuring a $12 billion advance from the ECB and the IMF.

With time winding down on the vote, crowds were beginning to form in Syntagma Square, directly across from the Parliament building. A vote of no confidence would be seen as a victory for the Greek populace, and if Papandreou does get the needed votes, rioting and confrontation are a near-certainty, as much of the population would like to detach Greece from the EU, return to the drachma and move on. (We will post an update of the vote as soon as it is confirmed.)

Elsewhere, investors looked past more horrifying housing numbers, as existing home sales in May fell by 3.8% from April and are down 15.3% from the same time last year, according to the report released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

So, once again, Wall Street demonstrated just how far detached from Main Street it really is, a chasm that only seems to keep widening.

Dow 12,190.01, +109.63 (0.91%)
NASDAQ 2,687.26, +57.60 (2.19%)
S&P 500 1,295.52, +17.16 (1.34%)
NYSE Composite 8,156.27, +124.05 (1.54%)


Advancing issues defeated decliners, 5430-1205. On the NASDAQ, there were 55 new highs and 32 new lows. The NYSE registered 68 new highs and 25 new lows, effectively ending the 12-day stretch in which the lows held the advantage with the combined numbers at 123 new highs and 57 new lows. What a difference a Greek makes!

Volume on the day was marginally better than on Monday, which is saying very little.

NASDAQ Volume 1,825,893,375
NYSE Volume 3,913,965,750


WTI crude futures edged up 14 cents, to $93.40. Gold added $6.30, to $1546.80 and silver was up 37 cents to $36.43. The moves in precious metals reflected the uncertainty of global economic conditions.

Tomorrow the Federal Reverse Open Market Committee will issue another one of the periodic edicts, keeping interest rates at near ZERO, and, presumably, will include the words, "extended period" for how long they believe it will be before they actually raise rates one iota.

The Fed is stuck in no-man's land, with a stumbling, structurally-impaired domestic economy and the threat of inflation due to a falling dollar. Thus far, the Fed has taken the easy route of monetary stimulation, throwing trillions into a stagnant economy, and that's likely to be their choice for many months, if not years, to come.

In reality, Greece is a side-show.