Thursday, July 21, 2011

Correlation Trade, Weak Dollar, Hot Air Boost Stocks

About the only thing hotter than stocks on this 21st of July, 2011, was the weather, with temperatures hovering around the 100-degree mark in much of the nation, but especially in the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and East coast. But the correlation trade - short dollars, long stocks - was in effect throughout the session, which meant that stocks had to soar... and they did, closing in on the nearly three-year highs set back in late April.

Coming off a string of recent earnings report beats by the likes of Google (GOOG), Apple (AAPL) and IBM, one would have expected the NASDAQ to lead the way, but it was the S&P and Dow Industrials which showed the greatest percentage gains of the day.

It's obvious to anyone with more than a passing interest that the banks have been at their manipulative best of late as financial stocks have led the way each of the past two sessions, even as these very banks put in quarterly earnings showing losses, pay no dividends, are largely insolvent and the nation lurches ever closer to a debt default and ratings downgrade, the latter being all but inevitable after the well-rehearsed clown show in Washington, DC.

One can hardly blame the elitist banking class for boosting their own portfolios at this juncture. After all, its been proven that whatever risks they take will be guaranteed to win, since the US government is back-stopping the whole TBTF crowd. They might as well take while the taking is good. It may not be the same in a fortnight or so.

For the rest of us, the alternative for the day was to find air-conditioning, drink plenty of fluids and watch the circus from afar. The risks of trading in stocks is far too high for the average plebeian. And so it goes, that the rich get richer. The poor, and, especially those stuck in the middle, may get the ultimate revenge as more and more people turn their backs on the world's most corrupt system of governance and finance and default in record numbers on school loans, car loans, mortgages, credit cards and all manner of financial obligations.

The end to this grand farce of fiat money is coming, regardless of the degree of normalcy bias built into us all from TV and the media. The waiting, admittedly, is a royal pain. Either way, it's death by deflation or inflation (which seems to be winning lately), or both.

Dow 12,724.41, +152.50 (1.21%)
NASDAQ 2,834.43, +20.20 (0.72%)
S&P 500 1,343.80, +17.96 (1.35%)
NYSE Composite 8,411.45, +129.62 (1.57%)


As one would expect, advancing stocks beat back decliners in a big way, 4901-1692. On the NASDAQ new highs reached 88, while new lows came in at 25. The NYSE had even more of a pronounced bias, with 154 new highs and 20 new lows. The combined total of 242 new highs and 45 new lows would seem to suggest that the rally has legs, though one never knows when or if Europe will fall completely apart at the seams, sending the Euro lower, the dollar higher and stocks down. Volume was actually quite fantastic. Perhaps some new suckers (investors) were brought into the foray.

NASDAQ Volume 2,253,718,500
NYSE Volume 4,812,432,500


As goes the dollar, so - in the opposite direction - goes oil, and with the dollar down, WTI crude leapt back over the $100/barrel mark in the early part of the session, but backed off to close up only 73 cents, at $99.13.

Naturally, gold and silver were hammered to death, with gold losing $9.90, to $1,587.00, and silver falling 61 cents, to $38.95 per ounce.

The conditions are about to change - for silver, at least - as the Hong Kong Exchange will introduce a silver futures trading mechanism at the open of business on Friday, which will be shortly after 8:00 pm EDT. By this time tomorrow, the price in Hong Kong may be $44 per ounce and quite a bit lower here in the states.

We shall see soon enough.

Wednesday, July 20, 2011

No Follow-Through Off Tuesday Smash-Up; Hong Kong to Trade Silver Futures

Stocks lingered near the flat line for nearly the entire session, eventually succumbing to selling pressure late in the day, making Tuesday's low-volume rally appear more spin than substance. As usual, in a stunning reversal of fortune, financial stocks were the top-performing sector, up 1.02%, while six of the twelve sectors showed losses and the highest percentage gainer among the six winners - outside of financials - was basic materials, up 0.45%.

The big beat by the banking sector was highly attributable to the fact that the majority of trading on Wall Street is handled by these very firms, proving once more that the too-big-to-fail banks operate without scrutiny from the SEC or any other regulatory body, as self-dealing and insider trading runs rampant.

Sizing up the market as a whole, one could surmise that it is in desperate straits, stuck above the 200 and 50-day moving averages and just below the nominal highs of late April. A steady diet of sideways trading should be of benefit to the high frequency and momentum hedge funds and day-traders, but it's a difficult balance to maintain, especially when one is highly leveraged, as most of the larger firms are.

Having reached the midpoint of earnings season, it is notable that the major indices are less than one per cent higher than when second quarter earnings began in earnest on July 11 and lower than where they were just prior to the onslaught of corporate reporting. It's an amusing scenario, even as most companies have met or exceeded expectations, albeit, for many firms, lowered ones.

With the debt ceiling debate in Washington nearing end-game, stocks seem to be running in place, pacing off the worry of just what kind of stunt the clowns in congress will pull off next, the latest rumor calling for a short term interim raising of the debt ceiling, or having President Obama employ his powers under the 14th amendment, which, according to Bill Clinton, gives the president authority to raise the debt limit without requiring congressional approval.

The key take-away is 10 words from section 4 of the amendment, which says, “The validity of the public debt shall not be questioned."

In typical obstructionist fashion members of the Republican party have already begun questioning the assumption that the president could go solo on a debt ceiling raise, with some members mentioning impeachment and lawsuits.

If nothing else, invoking the constitution on shaky legal grounds would no doubt wind up under the purview of the Supreme Court, take months to wrangle over and eventually end up with a nice downgrade in the US credit rating and higher interest rates for all. That would effectively defeat the whole intent of the Republican and Tea parties for starting this fight, as losses to the Treasury in terms of increased spending to cover higher interest on borrowings would cause even deeper deficits in years to come.

As it is, Moody's and S&P have already raised eyebrows and issued warnings about taking the debt ceiling issue too far afield, and there's a chance that even if an agreement is cobbled together, a rating downgrade could already be in the cards.

After a while, this entire escapade of Washington Gone Wild becomes a futile, badly-managed fiasco. The debt ceiling should never have been tied to budget considerations in the first place. In the end, the Tea Party wing of the Republican party has to be seen as the unwise villain in this sordid, sick affair.

Dow 12,571.91, -15.51 (0.12%)
NASDAQ 2,814.23, -12.29 (0.43%)
S&P 500 1,325.84, -0.89 (0.07%)
NYSE Composite 8,281.83, +27.45 (0.33%)


On the day, winners and losers were nearly split evenly, with 3289 advancing and 3241 declining. On the NASDAQ, there were 71 new highs and 34 new lows. New highs led new lows, 95-19 on the NYSE. The combined total of 166 new highs and 53 new lows is a positive sign for marketeers, though comparisons will be harder to beat come September, October and November, as stocks scored heavy gains in those months last year. Volume was the same as every other day this year: sluggish.

NASDAQ Volume 1,874,350,375
NYSE Volume 3,767,229,500


WTI crude oil was down for much of the session, but finished 64 cents higher, at $98.14. Gold was off $4.20, to $1,596.90, and silver dropped 66 cents, at $39.56, though it traded below $38.50 earlier in the day.

Tomorrow will mark the final day of singularity for the COMEX silver market as Hong Kong will begin trading a dollar-denominated silver futures contract on July 22, tapping into rising demand for all metals coming from China. This could potentially create an enormous run-up in the price of silver, as the Hong Kong exchange will be seen as an offset to COMEX (and Anglo-American) hegemony.

It will be interesting to watch the vicious price swings once the exchange gets its feet wet and orders begin flowing from not only China, but India and other Pac-Rim nations as well. Many are hoping that the Hong Kong exchange will operate in an honest fashion, exposing the manipulative ways of the COMEX and the shorting strategies of JP Morgan Chase and HSBC.

A new player in the global silver trade might be just what the doctor ordered for holders and hoarders of silver.

Tuesday, July 19, 2011

Markets Soar on New Gang of Six Debt Ceiling Proposal

Supposedly, the government will fix everything by changing the way the CPI is measured, which means that Social Security recipients are about to get whacked by way of inflation.

If ever there was an inept government being led around by its nose by financial masters, this one is it. Whatever Wall Street wants, Wall Street gets. As for the general population - the ones who pay all the bills and pay for bailouts and frauds - they receive the shaft.

The current legislation under proposal, offered by the Senate's Gang of Six, promises %3.7 Trillion in savings, some of it - about $1 Trillion - supposedly to come from increased revenues. House Republicans have already started making noise about it, since the plan calls for some tax increases. While President Obama seemed to be thrilled about the plan at a 1:30 press conference, party leaders Harry Reid and Mitch McConnell seem to have been cut off at the knees after working on an alternative plan to both save face and raise the debt ceiling.

Nonetheless, Wall Street acted as though manna was being dropped from the heavens, boosting stocks an additional 100 points on top of the bogus 100-point, low-volume, morning melt-up.

Forget TV dramas and soap operas. The best one is being played out right on CNBC every day with the fraudulent bankers running the politicians in a light-hearted farce known as the US economy.

Dow 12,587.42, +202.26 (1.63%)
NASDAQ 2,826.52, +61.41 (2.22%)
S&P 500 1,326.73, +21.29 (1.63%)
NYSE Composite 8,254.38, +118.85 (1.46%)


Advancing issues led decliners by an unhealthy margin, 5167-1418. On the NASDAQ, there were 68 new highs and 34 new lows. The NYSE showed 79 new highs and 32 new lows. The combined total of 147 new highs and 66 new lows completely reversed yesterday's dour numbers. Volume was as pathetic as it gets, especially on a 200-point Dow move.

NASDAQ Volume 1,842,038,625.00
NYSE Volume 4,228,335,000


Commodities changed direction on the day as well, which is not surprising for WTI crude oil, which continued it's up-and-down daily fluctuation, rising by $1.57, to $97.50. The lowered prices for gold (-$1.30, to $1,601.10) and silver (-0.12, to $40.22) are also in line with the corrupt rigging in those markets.

The best news of the day came from the financial sector, which was offering its own version of "recovery summer." Bank of America (BAC) posted a loss of 90 cents per share in the second quarter, mostly attributed to mortgage put-backs and side deals with note-holders. The stock traded as low as 9.40 following the pre-market release of second quarter results, ending the day down 0.15, at 9.57, another new 2-year low in a recent string of them.

Goldman Sachs (GS) also released fiscal first quarter results before the bell and came in with numbers in-line with analyst expectations, .

From the article linked above:
Revenue in Goldman's core fixed-income trading division fell 63% sequentially and 53% year-over-year due to reduced trading activity and economic uncertainty. That, along with weakness in its lending-and-investing division, led to an 18% year-on-year decline in overall firm revenue.

Doing "God's work," huh, guys? God must be angry.

Monday, July 18, 2011

Stocks Drop, Metals Pop, BofA a Major Flop

As the debt crisis in Europe evolves, worries over the US debt ceiling non-negotiations continue to complicate matters for traders. Fear is pervasive on the Street and the pace of progress (what little there is) seems to suggest that congressional Republicans and President Obama are on a collision course in which the August 2 deadline for raising the debt ceiling might come to pass without a resolution, or, at least one with any real teeth.

The stalemate over raising the debt limit has been pushed by the Tea Party faction in the House of Representatives, and it's done nothing but squander time and any understanding between the opposing factions. Talks have broken down twice in the past two weeks and lawmakers seem to be no closer to a deal than they were a month ago.

What's at stake should the deadline pass without a resolution to raise the debt limit would be the credit rating of the US, which has been threatened by ratings agencies Moody's and Standard and Poor's. Even if a deal is somehow worked out, the wrangling over the issue has sent the wrong message: America looks more like a third world country than the leader of the free world.

The arguing and posturing has helped to stall the economy because businesses don't want to make major moves - like hiring or opening new facilities - with so much uncertainty in the air, and that has taken its toll on stocks.

The week started off the same way last week ended, on the wrong foot, with stocks down sharply at the open and plummeting to the lows of the day by noon. The Dow was down 180 points at that point and the NASDAQ had shed some 46 points before bargain hunters (read: morons or the PPT) stepped in to shore up the losses. None of the major indices saw even a glint of the positive side. In fact, closing levels were near the high points of the day.

Dow 12,385.16, -94.57 (0.76%)
NASDAQ 2,765.11, -24.69 (0.89%)
S&P 500 1,305.44, -10.70 (0.81%)
NYSE Composite 8,135.53, -91.51 (1.11%)


Decliners led advancers by a wide margin, 5363-1213. The NASDAQ recorded 36 new highs and 71 new lows, while the NYSE had 37 new highs and 93 new lows. The combined total favored new lows, 164-73. With that indicator flipping over again and no progress on any economic front, the recently-resumed slide in stocks should lengthen and deepen. Volume was sluggish, and that's being generous.

NASDAQ Volume 1,726,375,125
NYSE Volume 4,103,216,500


Commodities were led by gold, which broke through the $1600 mark, finishing at $1,602.40, up $12.30 on the day. Silver was up more than 3%, rising $1.27, to $40.34. The ascent of the metals over the past two to three weeks has been a resounding note of no confidence in the fiat money system and general financial malaise caused and exacerbated by central bank intervention.

Crude oil continued doing its odd two-step, as WTI finished down $1.31, to $95.93. Of course, this one-off loss will likely be offset by gains tomorrow. Such is the way rigged markets function. In the end, there will be no summer relief for drivers who are paying close to $4 per gallon. The nationwide average for a gallon of unleaded regular remains high, at $3.68, with ten states over $3.77.

Bank of America continues to be the least-loved stock or bank in the nation. Shares of the beleaguered financial institution fell to yet another 2-year low, closing at 9.72 as reports emerge that the company needs to raise $50 billion in order to become a healthy, functioning bank again. One can only imagine how the bank's books would look had they not been bailed out in 2008 by the federal government (taxpayers). Some - this writer included - still believe it would have been better to allow BofA to go into default and bankruptcy and have the huge bank broken up into smaller parts.

The jury is still out on that one, though it still appears that those favoring bankruptcy for the biggest banks may have been on the right track all along. BofA still may not make it through to 2012 and beyond. They are broke, busted and insolvent and are a primary reason for the suffering of millions of Americans who have lost homes and jobs because so much effort was spent by the government to help the bank, rather than actual citizens.

After the close, IBM reported second quarter earnings with an EPS of $3.09, ahead of analysts' estimates of $3.03. The company raised guidance for the full year to “at least $13.25″ per share, up from a prior estimate of “at least $13.15″ per share.

Friday, July 15, 2011

Last Hour Rally Salvages Gains, Though Markets Down for Week

A tumultuous week came to a very anti-climatic conclusion on Friday, as the President issued a challenge to congress to come up with the "framework" of a deal within the next 24 to 36 hours to solve the wrangling over the debt ceiling and budget issues.

President Obama's 11:00 am new conference did little to move the matter in a more positive direction, and stocks languished throughout the day, finally putting together a half-hearted momentum rally in the final hour of trading.

In Europe, 82 of 90 banks passed the European banking Authority stress tests, but eight failed - four of them in Spain - and 12 more received barely passing grades.

Citigroup posted better-than-expected second quarter results, but still finished in the red for the day. Taking its cue, Bank of America (BAC), which reports on July 19, fell below $10 per share, finishing exactly at 10.00, after trading as low as 9.88, the lowest in more than two years.

The entire day was rather disjointed and purposeless, as stocks drifted around until the ramp-up at the close.

For the week, the Dow shed 177 points, the NASDAQ fell 70, the S&P gave back 27 and the NYSE composite dropped 183 points.

The late rally made little sense, unless one gives credence to the thought that it was a positive sign from the markets that a debt ceiling deal would be hatched by Monday.

Dow 12,479.73, +42.61 (0.34%)
NASDAQ 2,789.80, +27.13 (0.98%)
S&P 500 1,316.14, +7.27 (0.56%)
NYSE Composite 8,227.04, +35.91 (0.44%)


Advancers led decliners, 3945-2570. The NASDAQ offered 40 new highs and 34 new lows, while the NYSE had 62 stocks make new 52-week highs and 51 reach new lows. The combined total of 102 new highs and 85 new lows is cutting the margin rather closely and is reflective of the choppiness inherent in current markets.

NASDAQ Volume 1,825,291,125
NYSE Volume 4,370,969,000


A swath of economic data points offered no suggestion of improvement. The CPI fell 0.2%, the Empire Index returned a -3.76, industrial production and capacity utilization were both stagnant at 0.2% and 76.9%, and the Michigan consumer sentiment fell from 71.5 in May to 63.8 in June.

Crude oil continued on its zig-zag path, gaining $1.55, to $97.24. Gold hit another record, up 80 cents, to $1,590.10. Silver was up 38 cents, at $39.07 per ounce.

The NFL lockout continued, but both sides seem intent on reaching a deal, saying they would continue working over the weekend in order to conclude talks as early as possible without jeopardizing the preseason or regular season.

Maybe congress should take a hint from the players and owners. The American people have had about as much stalling and posturing as they can handle.