It could have been so much worse.
US stocks took another tumble Friday, on revisions to 1st and 2nd quarter GDP and fears that the debt ceiling debate in Washington was running out of time.
An hour prior to the opening bell, the government reported its second revision to second quarter GDP, which came in at a measly 1.3%, but the greater shock was the revision to first quarter GDP, which was revised lower, from 1.9% growth to a frighteningly-low 0.4%. That sent shock waves through the futures market and US indices fell sharply at the open, hitting the lows of the day within the first 15 minutes of trading.
Just before 10:00 am EDT, Chicago PMI was reported to have fallen to 58.8 in July, lower than forecast, from 61.1 the prior month. That wasn't bad enough news, however, to shake off the nascent rally on rumors and hope that congress would decide on a debt ceiling increase by the end of the day or over the weekend.
As the session wore on, stocks moved sharply on any unfounded rumors, but eventually gave way late in the day, as lawmakers in the House of Representatives agreed, 236-186, to begin debate on House majority leader John Boehner's debt ceiling proposal, which had been in limbo since Tuesday because the measure did not have the backing of the Tea Party wing of the Republican party and - even if it did pass the House - was seen as almost certain to fail in the Senate. An actual vote on the measure is expected to come around 6:00 pm EDT Friday.
At the end of the day and end of the week, with no resolution on the debt issue and economic data overshadowing even the best corporate second quarter reports, the Dow finished lower for the sixth straight day, the S&P down for the last five, and the NASDAQ in negative territory for the fourth day out of the last five. On Thursday, the NASDAQ registered a gain of just over one-and-a-half points.
For the week, the Dow lost 538 points, a 4% decline. The S&P slipped 53 points, the NASDAQ shed 102 points and the NYSE composite fell by 328 points.
As bad as it was, stocks actually recovered half of their earlier losses on Friday. Still, it was the worst weekly performance for US indices in a year.
Dow 12,143.24, -96.87 (0.79%)
NASDAQ 2,756.38, -9.87 (0.36%)
S&P 500 1,292.28, -8.39 (0.65%)
NYSE Composite 8,079.44, -44.59 (0.55%)
Declining issues again dominated advancers, 4113-2476, and the gap between the expanding number of new lows and shrinking new highs worsened. On the NASDAQ, there were just 26 new highs, as compared to 114 new lows. The NYSE showed even worse, with just 16 new highs and 177 new lows. The combined totals of 42 new highs against 291 new lows is sending the strongest sell signal imaginable. Even if the congress does find a way to pass a debt ceiling increase by Tuesday, August 2, the damage for wasting time has been done the Moody's and S&P will likely downgrade US debt in short order, as they both have warned would occur if serious measures were not taken at this impasse.
Add to that the non-recovery "recovery" which has been represented by high unemployment and falling home prices and the recipe for further declines in equities is writ large.
Volume on the day was strong, another sign of a weakening stock market poised on the brink of turning losses into a major correction and a resumption of the bear market.
NASDAQ Volume 2,274,169,000
NYSE Volume 5,045,403,000
Among other interesting notes were the 10-year, which rose in price, but slumped in yield, down to 2.80%. The 30-year bond also hit a fresh low yield of 4.13%.
Oil took some losses, down $1.74, to $95.70. Gold made another intra-day high of $1637.50, before settling back to close at $1,628.30, up $14.90 for the day. Silver was up 31 cents, to $40.11 per ounce.
With the markets suffering their worst weekly losses in a year - coincidentally at the same time top economists are partying at their annual convention in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, the same place that Fed Chairman announced the launch of QE2 last summer - the onus is on the congress to come with a plan that appeases not only both parties but the ratings agencies as well.
While it is doubtful they would let the August 2 date pass without a debt ceiling increase, the chances of them passing a bill before then that actually cuts spending appropriately are still quite long.
Friday, July 29, 2011
The new store
Guest post from: Constance Rodgers
My new store did really well the first three years we were open, and then the recession hit. Since we were mostly a referral outfit things were great without much marketing at all but when the economy dried up, so did our business. We had to pour thousands of dollars into an advertising company so they could get things back on track and it turns out all we did was waste our money. I wish I had listened when my mother told me to save for something like this! Anyway, we’re still doing okay with the loyal clients we have but I’ve recently had to let two employees go and go to BANK-CARD-Processing.com to start taking credit cards for the first time. I know this market has been tough on everyone but I can’t help feeling like we got it worse than most. Wish me luck in the coming months since only time will tell if our little business is able to survive this awful, awful time in American history.
Safeguarding Against Identity Theft
Because our world is so digitized, with everything from banking to credit cards to stocks and futures trading taking place over the internet, hackers have found a gold mine in digging up and exploiting personal data.
Everything from your social security number to automobile registration and brokerage account data is online, and it's only a few clicks or an inadvertent error away from falling into the hands of unscrupulous types who would do harm to one's financial and personal life.
In the increasingly complex world of internet security a few simple tasks can help one steer clear of the villain hackers who steal everything from credit scores and bank accounts to one's personal identity, and the outcomes of having insufficient identity theft protection can be consequential and painful.
Most online accounts, like banking and credit cards offer a level of encryption and security as a first line of defense. Some offer additional information to be imputed before access is granted to an account. The easiest ways to avoid being hacked is to use difficult passwords, especially using characters and numbers, and to use any secondary security - like additional questions to grant access - as a further safeguard.
Even more effective are online identity security companies, which monitor and scrutinize data flows to guard against unlawful intrusions. One such company is IdentityHawk, which offers a comprehensive solution including social security number monitoring, 24/7 identity security scanning, risk assessment via an identity health score and $1 million in identity theft insurance.
The company offers a 30-day, no-obligation free trial and also provides credit score monitoring and even can help in recovering one's identity if it's already fallen victim to identity theft.
While it pays to be thrifty and frugal in these turbulent economic times, a few dollars spent protecting ones identity and valuable assets should be money well spent.
Everything from your social security number to automobile registration and brokerage account data is online, and it's only a few clicks or an inadvertent error away from falling into the hands of unscrupulous types who would do harm to one's financial and personal life.
In the increasingly complex world of internet security a few simple tasks can help one steer clear of the villain hackers who steal everything from credit scores and bank accounts to one's personal identity, and the outcomes of having insufficient identity theft protection can be consequential and painful.
Most online accounts, like banking and credit cards offer a level of encryption and security as a first line of defense. Some offer additional information to be imputed before access is granted to an account. The easiest ways to avoid being hacked is to use difficult passwords, especially using characters and numbers, and to use any secondary security - like additional questions to grant access - as a further safeguard.
Even more effective are online identity security companies, which monitor and scrutinize data flows to guard against unlawful intrusions. One such company is IdentityHawk, which offers a comprehensive solution including social security number monitoring, 24/7 identity security scanning, risk assessment via an identity health score and $1 million in identity theft insurance.
The company offers a 30-day, no-obligation free trial and also provides credit score monitoring and even can help in recovering one's identity if it's already fallen victim to identity theft.
While it pays to be thrifty and frugal in these turbulent economic times, a few dollars spent protecting ones identity and valuable assets should be money well spent.
Thursday, July 28, 2011
Hope Fades in Late-Day Selling
There really was no good reason for stocks to start the day higher, but they did, probably in response to initial unemployment claims falling below 400,000 for the first time in three months.
The actual figure was 398,000, and was probably significantly fudged and will almost certainly be revised higher next week, but in a market this tense, anything that even hints of being good news is taken and such, so off went the speculators and day-traders, looking for quick, easy, short-term profits.
Some were undeniably successful, as a good number of stocks made significant gains and the NASDAQ rebounded nicely, up more than 30 points, after Wednesday's debacle.
Highs of the day were right around noon, and form there it was all downhill, with an especially sharp decline at the 2:00 hour. With the exception of the NASDAQ, which finished with a gain of just over one point, all of the major indices finished in the red for the fourth straight session.
Dow 12,240.11, -62.44 (0.51%)
NASDAQ 2,766.25, +1.46 (0.05%)
S&P 500 1,300.67, -4.22 (0.32%)
NYSE Composite 8,124.03, -29.18 (0.36%)
Once again, declining issues led advancers, 3744-2735. NASDAQ new highs numbered a mere 18, with 83 new lows. On the NYSE, new highs were outnumbered by new lows, 25-107. This puts the combined total at 43 new highs and 190 new lows, screaming for continued selling. Volume was healthy for a change, though most of it was on the downside.
NASDAQ Volume 2,105,143,250
NYSE Volume 4,957,269,500
Commodities hugged the flat line for the most part. Crude oil was up just 4 cents, to $97.44. Gold slipped $1.70, to $1,613.40. Silver still is being suppressed by the likes of JP Morgan and HSBC, falling another 77 cents, to $39.79.
Kitco's Live 24-hour spot silver chart clearly shows that once silver is traded in the Hong Kong market, prices are relatively stable, but wild swings - mostly to the negative - occur with regularity during the NY GLOBEX and NYMEX daily sessions. The big banks have their shorts in place and have been waging a losing battle for the past three years. Despite their mendacious efforts at keeping the price of silver down, they have already failed miserably and it is only a matter of time before the entire global silver market comes unglued and price soars past $50, $60, even $70 per ounce.
Silver has been a top performer the past five years or so, and should continue to do well as the fiat currency regime comes crashing down. Price is quite high at the present, but eventually, holders will be rewarded.
It appears that there will be no debt ceiling solution before the weekend, leaving the fools in Washington with nothing else to do but pass a stand-alone debt ceiling raise, which is what should have been happening all along. The Republicans in the House have perverted and conjoined the debt ceiling with the budget and long-term finances, and they will look like the fools of the foolish when all is said and done come Tuesday.
The actual figure was 398,000, and was probably significantly fudged and will almost certainly be revised higher next week, but in a market this tense, anything that even hints of being good news is taken and such, so off went the speculators and day-traders, looking for quick, easy, short-term profits.
Some were undeniably successful, as a good number of stocks made significant gains and the NASDAQ rebounded nicely, up more than 30 points, after Wednesday's debacle.
Highs of the day were right around noon, and form there it was all downhill, with an especially sharp decline at the 2:00 hour. With the exception of the NASDAQ, which finished with a gain of just over one point, all of the major indices finished in the red for the fourth straight session.
Dow 12,240.11, -62.44 (0.51%)
NASDAQ 2,766.25, +1.46 (0.05%)
S&P 500 1,300.67, -4.22 (0.32%)
NYSE Composite 8,124.03, -29.18 (0.36%)
Once again, declining issues led advancers, 3744-2735. NASDAQ new highs numbered a mere 18, with 83 new lows. On the NYSE, new highs were outnumbered by new lows, 25-107. This puts the combined total at 43 new highs and 190 new lows, screaming for continued selling. Volume was healthy for a change, though most of it was on the downside.
NASDAQ Volume 2,105,143,250
NYSE Volume 4,957,269,500
Commodities hugged the flat line for the most part. Crude oil was up just 4 cents, to $97.44. Gold slipped $1.70, to $1,613.40. Silver still is being suppressed by the likes of JP Morgan and HSBC, falling another 77 cents, to $39.79.
Kitco's Live 24-hour spot silver chart clearly shows that once silver is traded in the Hong Kong market, prices are relatively stable, but wild swings - mostly to the negative - occur with regularity during the NY GLOBEX and NYMEX daily sessions. The big banks have their shorts in place and have been waging a losing battle for the past three years. Despite their mendacious efforts at keeping the price of silver down, they have already failed miserably and it is only a matter of time before the entire global silver market comes unglued and price soars past $50, $60, even $70 per ounce.
Silver has been a top performer the past five years or so, and should continue to do well as the fiat currency regime comes crashing down. Price is quite high at the present, but eventually, holders will be rewarded.
It appears that there will be no debt ceiling solution before the weekend, leaving the fools in Washington with nothing else to do but pass a stand-alone debt ceiling raise, which is what should have been happening all along. The Republicans in the House have perverted and conjoined the debt ceiling with the budget and long-term finances, and they will look like the fools of the foolish when all is said and done come Tuesday.
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
D-Day Minus Six: Beware Falling Stocks; Dow, NASDAQ in Second-Worst Decline of 2011
It is now just six days from August 2nd, the day the government of the United States of America either passes a bill increasing the debt ceiling or begins defaulting on said debt, which is fast approaching $15 trillion.
Through accounting gimmicks and "borrowing" from the pension funds of federal employees, the government has thus far avoiding making either the commitment to borrow more or claim deadbeat status and suffer a beating at the hands of the ratings agencies in the form of credit downgrades and subsequent higher interest payments.
Make no bones about it, it is time for the American people to come to grips with the reality that the officials in Washington are not doing the jobs they are paid to do, nor have they represented the best interests of the American people for quite a long time (at least the past 11 years).
If the debt ceiling is not raised, calamity will surely ensue, which is why both sides - Republicans and Democrats, except for a few ardent Tea Partiers - have repeatedly expressed sentiment that the debt ceiling must be raised by August 2nd, no matter the outcome of budget negotiations. In truth, both sides are coming to the realization that their parties are far apart and that no budget issues or long-term spending should have become tied to the debt ceiling issue. They are separate matters which should be dealt with separately.
Nonetheless, the politicians continue their annoying Kabuki theatre while the American public seethes over their inability to compromise, act like reasonable adults and do what they were elected to do.
Wall Street has taken notice as well, logging losses in each of the first three days of this week, with no end to the selling yet in sight. To say that our "leaders" have taken a walk to the end of the plank would be putting it mildly. This issue should never have gotten to this point and those wishing to play fast and loose with the US economy should be given a hearly heave-ho and be dutifully shoved off the plank and into the drink.
What both parties have done - though especially the Republicans, who picked this fight - is shrink from their responsibilities, putting politics ahead of their oaths. It is a shameful chapter in American governance which should never be allowed to be repeated, though the general consensus is that more of the same will be forthcoming as the 2012 election season heats up.
The leaders of both parties should be henceforth removed from office for putting the stability and good faith and credit of America at extreme risk. After that, the herd of politicians being led by money from various lobbyists should be summarily removed from office. The entire congress could run better with many fewer members, preferably none of those presently constituting that formerly-august body.
The American public want change, need change and have been promised change, but all it has gotten is a sordid soap opera of bad politics and even worse outcomes. We have reached the brink and it is very nearly time to throw off the yoke of oppression by the governors and take matters in hand in a more efficient and direct manner. Nothing gets done in Washington any more; maybe it's time to shut it down.
The wealthy barons of Wall Street, those who funded the campaigns and lined the pockets of these moronic, imbecilic politicians, should also be brought to task, something Attorney General Eric Holder seems reluctant to pursue. After all, Wall Street keeps him in nice suits and fancy offices. He should be impeached.
Today's losses on the major indices were the second-largest of 2011 (except for the S&P, for which it was the third-largest), surpassing the 68 points the NASDAQ lost on January 28, but less than the 77 point decline on February 22, though more than the 66 point loss on June 1.
The Dow dropped 166, 179 and 279 points, and the S&P fell 23, 28 and 30 points on the same dates, respectively.
Dow 12,302.55, -198.75 (1.59%)
NASDAQ 2,764.79, -75.17 (2.65%)
S&P 500 1,304.89, -27.05 (2.03%)
NYSE Composite 8,153.21, -178.46 (2.14%)
Declining issues slaughtered advancers, 5875-804. New highs on the NASDAQ numbered only 15, while new lows expanded to 89. On the NYSE, there were 28 new highs and 105 new lows. The combined totals of 43 new highs and 194 new lows puts this indicator clearly in the "sell signal" category. Volume was dynamic and huge. Make no doubt about it: this was a rout.
NASDAQ Volume 2,310,879,750
NYSE Volume 5,074,647,000
Commodities were rather tame throughout the equity carnage. WTI oil fell $2.19, to $97.40, from an artificial and fully inflated high point. Gold dipped $1.70, to $1,615.10, while silver fell a modest 13 cents, to $40.57. The losses in the precious metals are temporary, likely the result of margin calls. Eventually, if stocks continue to take on water, money will gush into gold and silver.
The delay in raising the debt ceiling was not the only issue making for a horrible day on Wall Street. Durable goods orders fell 2.1% in June, further evidence that the economy is slowing.
Tomorrow's initial unemployment claims reading from the BLS could be the proverbial straw that breaks this market's back. Should the number come in above 420,000, stocks could pick right up where they left off today, severely to the downside.
Through accounting gimmicks and "borrowing" from the pension funds of federal employees, the government has thus far avoiding making either the commitment to borrow more or claim deadbeat status and suffer a beating at the hands of the ratings agencies in the form of credit downgrades and subsequent higher interest payments.
Make no bones about it, it is time for the American people to come to grips with the reality that the officials in Washington are not doing the jobs they are paid to do, nor have they represented the best interests of the American people for quite a long time (at least the past 11 years).
If the debt ceiling is not raised, calamity will surely ensue, which is why both sides - Republicans and Democrats, except for a few ardent Tea Partiers - have repeatedly expressed sentiment that the debt ceiling must be raised by August 2nd, no matter the outcome of budget negotiations. In truth, both sides are coming to the realization that their parties are far apart and that no budget issues or long-term spending should have become tied to the debt ceiling issue. They are separate matters which should be dealt with separately.
Nonetheless, the politicians continue their annoying Kabuki theatre while the American public seethes over their inability to compromise, act like reasonable adults and do what they were elected to do.
Wall Street has taken notice as well, logging losses in each of the first three days of this week, with no end to the selling yet in sight. To say that our "leaders" have taken a walk to the end of the plank would be putting it mildly. This issue should never have gotten to this point and those wishing to play fast and loose with the US economy should be given a hearly heave-ho and be dutifully shoved off the plank and into the drink.
What both parties have done - though especially the Republicans, who picked this fight - is shrink from their responsibilities, putting politics ahead of their oaths. It is a shameful chapter in American governance which should never be allowed to be repeated, though the general consensus is that more of the same will be forthcoming as the 2012 election season heats up.
The leaders of both parties should be henceforth removed from office for putting the stability and good faith and credit of America at extreme risk. After that, the herd of politicians being led by money from various lobbyists should be summarily removed from office. The entire congress could run better with many fewer members, preferably none of those presently constituting that formerly-august body.
The American public want change, need change and have been promised change, but all it has gotten is a sordid soap opera of bad politics and even worse outcomes. We have reached the brink and it is very nearly time to throw off the yoke of oppression by the governors and take matters in hand in a more efficient and direct manner. Nothing gets done in Washington any more; maybe it's time to shut it down.
The wealthy barons of Wall Street, those who funded the campaigns and lined the pockets of these moronic, imbecilic politicians, should also be brought to task, something Attorney General Eric Holder seems reluctant to pursue. After all, Wall Street keeps him in nice suits and fancy offices. He should be impeached.
Today's losses on the major indices were the second-largest of 2011 (except for the S&P, for which it was the third-largest), surpassing the 68 points the NASDAQ lost on January 28, but less than the 77 point decline on February 22, though more than the 66 point loss on June 1.
The Dow dropped 166, 179 and 279 points, and the S&P fell 23, 28 and 30 points on the same dates, respectively.
Dow 12,302.55, -198.75 (1.59%)
NASDAQ 2,764.79, -75.17 (2.65%)
S&P 500 1,304.89, -27.05 (2.03%)
NYSE Composite 8,153.21, -178.46 (2.14%)
Declining issues slaughtered advancers, 5875-804. New highs on the NASDAQ numbered only 15, while new lows expanded to 89. On the NYSE, there were 28 new highs and 105 new lows. The combined totals of 43 new highs and 194 new lows puts this indicator clearly in the "sell signal" category. Volume was dynamic and huge. Make no doubt about it: this was a rout.
NASDAQ Volume 2,310,879,750
NYSE Volume 5,074,647,000
Commodities were rather tame throughout the equity carnage. WTI oil fell $2.19, to $97.40, from an artificial and fully inflated high point. Gold dipped $1.70, to $1,615.10, while silver fell a modest 13 cents, to $40.57. The losses in the precious metals are temporary, likely the result of margin calls. Eventually, if stocks continue to take on water, money will gush into gold and silver.
The delay in raising the debt ceiling was not the only issue making for a horrible day on Wall Street. Durable goods orders fell 2.1% in June, further evidence that the economy is slowing.
Tomorrow's initial unemployment claims reading from the BLS could be the proverbial straw that breaks this market's back. Should the number come in above 420,000, stocks could pick right up where they left off today, severely to the downside.
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