Mainstream media has tried - somewhat unsuccessfully - over the past few years, to convince the American public that all is well with ours and the world's economies. Of course, the rich media stars have a vested interest in maintaining the status of the status quo, because if they have to report the truth for a change, their political masters might think of replacing them, as has been the procedure for members of the elite media who don't play along.
That's why it's important to tune out the TV blur artists and tune into internet and alternative sources, who try their best to tell it like it is, without cheerleading for the corporatists and globalists who dominate the money.
Today's news out of China and Europe was nearly matched for awfulness by more sour data on the US housing market, sending stocks uniformly lower in one of the better routs of the year so far.
Early in the US morning, China reported the HSBC flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 48.1 in March, a four-month low, compared with a final reading of 49.6 in February. It was the fifth straight monthly reading that showed contraction, another worrisome sign that the the world is entering what looks like a global recession.
In Europe, the miss was huge in the EU PMI data, with the composite PMI for the Eurozone declining for the second consecutive month, to 48.7 in March from 49.3 in February. The rate of decline was also accelerating, stoking fears that the recession that is well underway in many Eurozone countries is spreading fast. Rosy expectations from expert economists (one should know well by now that said "experts" only know money printing and inflation, and not reality) called for a rise to 49.8. They were sorely disappointed and stocks fell across the european bourses. Any reading on any PMI under 50.0 signals contraction and the european economies are contracting more rapidly than the optimists in Brussels and London can imagine.
In the US, the bad news was exacerbated by a trifecta of gloom from the housing sector. Mortgage rates jumped above 4.0% for a 30-year fixed mortgage, home prices remained flat for the month of January (despite excellent house-buying weather) and the December gain of 0.7% was revised radically lower, to a gain of just 0.1%. Additionally, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, mortgage applications fell 7.4% for the week ending March 16, compared with the week before.
As many skeptics have been saying for months, as US stocks posted incredible gains since October, there really isn't any recovery to be seen, anywhere.
And that's the nub of the argument. Government data is so overtly massaged, mangled, managed and misappropriated to meet the demands of the political and financial crowd that it can barely be trusted. The best advice is to just chop two percentage points off any data to get a realistic reading, rather than rely on the bogus statistics provided by the professional guessers in the governments' capture.
Of course, middle class Americans do have choices, though for the most part they are painful. Second jobs, kids at home, driving less, and eating a leaner more nutritious diet (you feel better and eat less) rather than the junk served at fast food and mid-priced restaurant chains are choices that are being made routinely by Americans forced to tighten their economic belts.
But of course, you won't hear that on either Bloomberg of CNBC, where everything is going up all the time, no matter what. It's been 3 1/2 years since the crash of '08. Nothing's changed, except that the lies have gotten larger.
Stocks were down hard until the closing hour, when, sure enough, a rally saved the major indices from finishing a heck of a lot lower. The day will come when all the pumping and pimping by the insiders won't be enough to save our precious stock markets from complete implosion. As usual, volume was non-existent.
With one more trading day ahead, stocks are poised for their worst weekly showing of the year.
Dow 13,046.14, -78.48 (0.60%)
NASDAQ 3,063.32, -12.00 (0.39%)
S&P 500 1,392.78, -10.11 (0.72%)
NYSE Composite 8,141.33, -78.01 (0.95%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,524,230,750
NYSE Volume 3,664,415,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1559-3952
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 94-41
WTI crude oil: 105.35, -1.92
Gold: 1,642.50, -7.80
Silver: 31.34, -0.88
Thursday, March 22, 2012
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
US Economy an Express Train to Nowhere
Where to begin...
Let's start with housing, which continues to be a complete bugaboo for the friends of the Fed (FOF), meaning governments at all levels, financial institutions, public sector employees (overpaid, irresponsible), welfare and entitlement recipients and anybody who spends beyond their means.
This morning, the NAR released their almost-fully-discredited monthly report on existing home sales, which, despite marvelous weather across most of the country, fell 0.9% in February as compared to January's figures. The NAR was quick to point out that sales rose 8.8% from a year earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.59 million.
Median prices were nearly flat, at $157,100, just 0.1% higher than February 2011.
It wasn't such a disheartening report, overall, but points to the idea that any uptick in activity is usually short-lived and not sustainable. Prices have remained mired in the mud, and, with interest rates on mortgages rising recently, March may have come in like a Lamb, weather-wise, but it may go out like a hungry lion in terms of real estate.
Then there was the brilliantly-timed commentary by Goldman Sachs chief global equity strategist, Peter Oppenheimer, titled "The Long Good Buy" which postulates that "the prospects for future returns in equities relative to bonds are as good as they've been in a generation."
Not to throw much cold water (a bathtub of ice might be more appropriate) on this particular bit of financial wisdom, but Mr. Oppenheimer and his buddies at the giant squid must think the muppets are prime for a fleecing. Stocks have not been at these current levels for more than 3 1/2 years, the major indices have pretty much doubled since the bottom of March '09 and he thinks NOW, today is a good time to buy stocks?
Not to be too pushy or overburdened with facts, but isn't the oldest bit of market timing knowledge to buy low, sell high? Oppenheimer seems to want to stand that time-worn adage on its head, which, considering the extent to which Goldman Sachs will go to defraud the public, the government and even its own clients, is about par for the course. (A video, assessing the relative value of Mr. Oppenheimer's call appears at the end of this post.)
As far as stocks are concerned, they are currently stalled out at high levels and while they floated along in bifurcated fashion through most of today's session, there was some significant selling pressure at the close. It probably means nothing, but if you think a quick selloff in stocks at the end of the day is a sure sign to buy more gold and silver, nobody around these parts is going to do anything to dissuade you from that line of thinking.
As usual, volume was unseen and at levels indicating a lack of interest, sponsorship or near-panic, but we've been over that bridge too many times already. Let it just be said that there are many, many, many fewer individual investors playing stocks than there were five years ago. Some went broke, some profited but are scared to death of the markets, others are merely awaiting a return to normalcy, something that isn't likely to occur until there's a crash, a credit "event", a war or something very ugly to shake the stranglehold of the banksters and politicians to their core.
Doug Casey offers three variations on the definition of a depression, plus some valuable insights in an interview, titled Doug Casey on the Illusion of a Recovery. It's an intelligent read. (Hint: Doug likes gold)
Dow 13,124.62, -45.57 (0.35%)
NASDAQ 3,075.32, +1.17 (0.04%)
S&P 500 1,402.89, -2.63 (0.19%)
NYSE Composite 8,219.33, -21.95 (0.27%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,551,352,875
NYSE Volume 3,534,241,000
Combined BYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2776-2764
Combined BYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 174-32
WTI crude oil: 107.27, +1.20
Gold: 1,650.30, +3.30
Silver: 32.23, +0.39
Let's start with housing, which continues to be a complete bugaboo for the friends of the Fed (FOF), meaning governments at all levels, financial institutions, public sector employees (overpaid, irresponsible), welfare and entitlement recipients and anybody who spends beyond their means.
This morning, the NAR released their almost-fully-discredited monthly report on existing home sales, which, despite marvelous weather across most of the country, fell 0.9% in February as compared to January's figures. The NAR was quick to point out that sales rose 8.8% from a year earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.59 million.
Median prices were nearly flat, at $157,100, just 0.1% higher than February 2011.
It wasn't such a disheartening report, overall, but points to the idea that any uptick in activity is usually short-lived and not sustainable. Prices have remained mired in the mud, and, with interest rates on mortgages rising recently, March may have come in like a Lamb, weather-wise, but it may go out like a hungry lion in terms of real estate.
Then there was the brilliantly-timed commentary by Goldman Sachs chief global equity strategist, Peter Oppenheimer, titled "The Long Good Buy" which postulates that "the prospects for future returns in equities relative to bonds are as good as they've been in a generation."
Not to throw much cold water (a bathtub of ice might be more appropriate) on this particular bit of financial wisdom, but Mr. Oppenheimer and his buddies at the giant squid must think the muppets are prime for a fleecing. Stocks have not been at these current levels for more than 3 1/2 years, the major indices have pretty much doubled since the bottom of March '09 and he thinks NOW, today is a good time to buy stocks?
Not to be too pushy or overburdened with facts, but isn't the oldest bit of market timing knowledge to buy low, sell high? Oppenheimer seems to want to stand that time-worn adage on its head, which, considering the extent to which Goldman Sachs will go to defraud the public, the government and even its own clients, is about par for the course. (A video, assessing the relative value of Mr. Oppenheimer's call appears at the end of this post.)
As far as stocks are concerned, they are currently stalled out at high levels and while they floated along in bifurcated fashion through most of today's session, there was some significant selling pressure at the close. It probably means nothing, but if you think a quick selloff in stocks at the end of the day is a sure sign to buy more gold and silver, nobody around these parts is going to do anything to dissuade you from that line of thinking.
As usual, volume was unseen and at levels indicating a lack of interest, sponsorship or near-panic, but we've been over that bridge too many times already. Let it just be said that there are many, many, many fewer individual investors playing stocks than there were five years ago. Some went broke, some profited but are scared to death of the markets, others are merely awaiting a return to normalcy, something that isn't likely to occur until there's a crash, a credit "event", a war or something very ugly to shake the stranglehold of the banksters and politicians to their core.
Doug Casey offers three variations on the definition of a depression, plus some valuable insights in an interview, titled Doug Casey on the Illusion of a Recovery. It's an intelligent read. (Hint: Doug likes gold)
Dow 13,124.62, -45.57 (0.35%)
NASDAQ 3,075.32, +1.17 (0.04%)
S&P 500 1,402.89, -2.63 (0.19%)
NYSE Composite 8,219.33, -21.95 (0.27%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,551,352,875
NYSE Volume 3,534,241,000
Combined BYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2776-2764
Combined BYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 174-32
WTI crude oil: 107.27, +1.20
Gold: 1,650.30, +3.30
Silver: 32.23, +0.39
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Housing Not So Rousing, Saudis Naughty on Oil
How's that recovery coming along?
In housing, not so well, it turns out.
Housing starts fell from 705K in January to 698K, annualized, in February, with much of the new construction boosted in the multi-family, "5 units or more" category (apartments), which implies a couple of things. First, investors seem to believe that single-family home construction is a fading business, and, second, most of lower and middle class Americans cannot meet the current, stringent lending requirements needed to qualify for mortgages, so they will rent instead of own.
That's something of a setback for the "American dream of home ownership" crowd that watches in horror as each month more and more existing homes sell for less than their listed price, even more become vacant eyesores due to bank and tax foreclosures as the economy stumbles along at maybe two percent growth.
Building permits rose to 717K in February from 682K in January, probably due to the unusually warm weather across most of the country, though the apparent contrariness in that metric may be merely stealing from the future and is also the very first step in construction - a long way from completion, which, as people in Las Vegas and elsewhere will contend, often never happens.
With those numbers released before the open as a backdrop, stocks opened sharply lower and remained in the red throughout the session, though the NASDAQ and S&P 500 had interesting intra-day rallies that took them well off their lows into the close.
Oil got shocked down as the Saudis pledged to pump more crude, Iran assured its neighbors that the Strait of Hormuz would remain open and more signs that the Chinese economy is slowing emerged.
Overall, it was a good day for consumers and not such a great one for oil barons and one-percenters, though financial stocks were among the leaders. As usual, volume was weak and maybe just a mirage. Silver continues to slump, now down into a great buying range below support at $32/ounce.
Dow 13,170.19, -68.94 (0.52%)
NASDAQ 3,074.15, -4.17 (0.14%)
S&P 500 1,405.52, -4.23 (0.30%)
NYSE Composite 8,241.27, -56.20 (0.68%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,508,268,500
NYSE Volume 3,656,522,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1753-3806
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 116-40
WTI crude oil: 105.61, -2.48
Gold: 1,647.00, -20.30
Silver: 31.83, -1.12
In housing, not so well, it turns out.
Housing starts fell from 705K in January to 698K, annualized, in February, with much of the new construction boosted in the multi-family, "5 units or more" category (apartments), which implies a couple of things. First, investors seem to believe that single-family home construction is a fading business, and, second, most of lower and middle class Americans cannot meet the current, stringent lending requirements needed to qualify for mortgages, so they will rent instead of own.
That's something of a setback for the "American dream of home ownership" crowd that watches in horror as each month more and more existing homes sell for less than their listed price, even more become vacant eyesores due to bank and tax foreclosures as the economy stumbles along at maybe two percent growth.
Building permits rose to 717K in February from 682K in January, probably due to the unusually warm weather across most of the country, though the apparent contrariness in that metric may be merely stealing from the future and is also the very first step in construction - a long way from completion, which, as people in Las Vegas and elsewhere will contend, often never happens.
With those numbers released before the open as a backdrop, stocks opened sharply lower and remained in the red throughout the session, though the NASDAQ and S&P 500 had interesting intra-day rallies that took them well off their lows into the close.
Oil got shocked down as the Saudis pledged to pump more crude, Iran assured its neighbors that the Strait of Hormuz would remain open and more signs that the Chinese economy is slowing emerged.
Overall, it was a good day for consumers and not such a great one for oil barons and one-percenters, though financial stocks were among the leaders. As usual, volume was weak and maybe just a mirage. Silver continues to slump, now down into a great buying range below support at $32/ounce.
Dow 13,170.19, -68.94 (0.52%)
NASDAQ 3,074.15, -4.17 (0.14%)
S&P 500 1,405.52, -4.23 (0.30%)
NYSE Composite 8,241.27, -56.20 (0.68%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,508,268,500
NYSE Volume 3,656,522,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1753-3806
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 116-40
WTI crude oil: 105.61, -2.48
Gold: 1,647.00, -20.30
Silver: 31.83, -1.12
Friday, March 16, 2012
Stock Split as Week Ends with Dull Session
Stocks ended the week in mixed fashion on slightly elevated volume, most likely due to quadruple-witching options expiry.
There used to be a time when stocks would experience high volatility on options expiration, but those days seem to be gone, now that the entire market is being front run by insiders and HFT operations (many of whom are one and the same firms).
The big gains on Tuesday were responsible for the bulk of this week's advances, as there was virtually no follow-through to the big ramp job.
Some economic data led to the dull, confused markets this Friday. CPI for February came in with a 0.4% gain, with Core CPI up 0.1%, as most of the inflation was due to higher food and (mostly) energy prices. February Industrial Production was flat and Capacity Utilization fell by 0.01% in February, to 78.7%.
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell a full point for March, to 74.3.
Dow 13,232.62, -20.14 (0.15%)
NASDAQ 3,055.26, -1.11 (0.04%)
S&P 500 1,404.17, +1.57 (0.11%)
NYSE Composite 8,270.40, -23.68 (0.29%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,993,724,375
NYSE Volume 4,893,666,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2674-2978
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 265-25
WTI crude oil: 107.06, +1.95
Gold: 1,655.80, -3.70
Silver: 32.60, -0.12
There used to be a time when stocks would experience high volatility on options expiration, but those days seem to be gone, now that the entire market is being front run by insiders and HFT operations (many of whom are one and the same firms).
The big gains on Tuesday were responsible for the bulk of this week's advances, as there was virtually no follow-through to the big ramp job.
Some economic data led to the dull, confused markets this Friday. CPI for February came in with a 0.4% gain, with Core CPI up 0.1%, as most of the inflation was due to higher food and (mostly) energy prices. February Industrial Production was flat and Capacity Utilization fell by 0.01% in February, to 78.7%.
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell a full point for March, to 74.3.
Dow 13,232.62, -20.14 (0.15%)
NASDAQ 3,055.26, -1.11 (0.04%)
S&P 500 1,404.17, +1.57 (0.11%)
NYSE Composite 8,270.40, -23.68 (0.29%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,993,724,375
NYSE Volume 4,893,666,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2674-2978
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 265-25
WTI crude oil: 107.06, +1.95
Gold: 1,655.80, -3.70
Silver: 32.60, -0.12
Thursday, March 15, 2012
Stocks Higher
Seriously, you're not watching the tournament?
Besides, it was just another normal up day for the US equity markets. We'll talk about bond yields next week.
Dow 13,252.76, +58.66 (0.44%)
NASDAQ 3,056.37, +15.64 (0.51%)
S&P 500 1,402.60, +8.32 (0.60%)
NYSE Composite 8,246.72, +61.41 (0.75%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,688,321,125
NYSE Volume 4,278,291,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3535-2067
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 241-44
WTI crude oil: 105.11, -0.32
Gold: 1,659.50, +16.60
Silver: 32.73, +0.55
Besides, it was just another normal up day for the US equity markets. We'll talk about bond yields next week.
Dow 13,252.76, +58.66 (0.44%)
NASDAQ 3,056.37, +15.64 (0.51%)
S&P 500 1,402.60, +8.32 (0.60%)
NYSE Composite 8,246.72, +61.41 (0.75%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,688,321,125
NYSE Volume 4,278,291,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3535-2067
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 241-44
WTI crude oil: 105.11, -0.32
Gold: 1,659.50, +16.60
Silver: 32.73, +0.55
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