Trump Wins, America Wins, Fearless Rick Takes A Victory Lap

November has, thus far, been an amazing month.

The Cubs won the World Series for the first time since 1904, Donald Trump won the election for president, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average registered a new all time high.

Fearless Rick outside Trump rally this Spring

In the meantime, as an aftermath to the historic, transformative election win for Donald Trump, a businessman, a TV idol, not a politician, students and other dissatisfied people are protesting the result of the democratic voting process.

To some, the protests may appear preposterous, pompous, self-indulgent, or just plain stupid. But, this is what America is all about: freedom of speech, freedom of expression, freedom to say and do whatever one pleases, so long as those words or actions don’t impinge upon those of others. It’s a thin, blurry line upon which we traverse with free speech and free assembly, but it is there, and, to a large extent, it is going to be respected.

Truthfully, the number of people protesting the election result is ridiculously small in comparison to the number of people who voted for Mr. Trump or Mrs. Clinton, so, to a large extent, the protests should be easy to ignore. The more one ponders the wisdom of protesting the result of an election, the more absurd the proposition becomes. The election was the result of months and months of free expression by the candidates, their surrogates, supporters, detractors, and the media. The time for marching and shouting was before the election, not after it. With any luck, that concept will sink in to the kids on the streets and college campuses and they’ll slink back to their jobs, classrooms, or parents’ basements and life will go on as usual.

Protests against the president prior to his inauguration, are likely to be ineffective. Maybe that hasn’t gotten through to George Soros and his ilk, who almost surely have funded and promoted these most idiotic of events.

But that’s not the point of this message. The point is to remind readers that the editor of this blog, Fearless Rick, himself called the election result correctly a month prior to it, calling for a Trump landslide, the result of millions of fed up Americans taking back their nation. Honestly, it was more of a hope than an educated prediction, but, as the pollsters and number crunchers themselves have admitted, they blew it. They didn’t see the millions of Americans who felt disenfranchised and disrespected by the likes of liberal goons promoting gay rights and LGBTQ liberties, who lost jobs because the government made moving industries out of America a profitable decision, who pay taxes for schools that don’t teach, elected officials and bureaucrats who don’t represent them, a media that mocks and ridicules them for being old-fashioned, out-of-step, or even selfish.

The backbone of America was awakened by a man who refused to toe the line of political correctness, who stood against open borders, who stood for the working men and women of this country, the middle class, the downtrodden, the forgotten. Donald Trump was a lightning rod for the pissed off, angry folks in the country who had seen enough of their rights stripped away and were afraid the choice of Hillary Clinton as the next president would have brought upon an epochal eventuality wherein the few remaining rights would be stripped in time.

They were probably right. Democrats and liberals alike have worked tirelessly to limit the second amendment, to nullify free speech, flout the immigration laws, disrespect the rule of law, and gradually, slowly, but incessantly, turn all of America into a totalitarian welfare state of chaos and complete government control. That was not the America most of those who voted for Mr. Trump wanted. Many of the Trump voters were older, who remembered a time when America was a safer place, a freer place, a happier place, and they wanted it back.

In electing Donald Trump as the nation’s 45th president, they may have taken the first step toward a restoration of the America, a return to morality, to honesty, to civility, to economic and true social justice. Making America great again, to borrow from Trump’s slogan, is not going to occur overnight, or even in the four years Mr. Trump will serve as president. It’s going to take a while to unwind all the bad legislation and trade deals and economic imbalances that were the result of crony capitalism. And Mr. Trump is not going to be able to do it alone. He is going to need not just the House of Representatives and the Senate but also the voices of those who voted for him and support his ideals. Winning the election was just the beginning. The left and their compliant media lapdogs are not about to go away and hide. They are going to fight back, lash out and tear at the fabric of society.

They will fail, and they will fail miserably because their vision of America, complete with free college educations, fifty million people on welfare, twenty trillion dollars of debt, overpaid government employees, and a severe lack of good, fulfilling, well-paying jobs, is not America at all. It is a liberal, dysfunctional, diseased obsession and fantasy.

The America represented by the people who put Donald Trump in office is an America of hard work and good pay, of duty to God, country and family, of fearlessness in the face of adversity, of helping neighbors and those less fortunate, of friendliness, honesty and humility. The America which will be refreshed is one of opportunity, freedom and justice for all.

It’s hard to believe that anybody in their right mind would protest that.

Stocks Massacred Again; S&P Below 1900; Dow Sheds Over 1200 Points in 2016

Another day, another 350+ point loss on the Dow.

There isn't much to say about this kind of result except that it isn't showing any sign of abating. It's what happens when you throw trillions of dollars for speculators to over-leverage on risk assets of all manner and then shut off the free money supply tap.

That's exactly what the Fed did on December 16, when they decided that the economy was strong enough - and gaining momentum - to withstand a rate hike. Dismissing the fact that it was only 25 basis points, the Fed, which has been wrong on everything from the effects of QE and ZIRP to employment, housing and growth, moved at the wrong time. The business cycle had already turned negative; it was exhausted and the consumer had been tapped out.

Not that the consequent decline in stocks was solely the fault of the Federal Reserve, no, the government, spending and taxing and taxing and spending the United States into 19 trillion dollars of unpayable debt, has had an equal hand in the destruction of American business enterprise.

Of course, the demise of the industrial giant wasn't all done overnight. It's taken decades of mismanagement to destroy the American dream and the destroyers aren't done yet. Stock market declines aren't the end of the road, either. Rather, they're just a symptom of the underlying malaise that will be unleashed full force as this election year unwinds.

Stocks are just the visible part of the credit bubble. The other parts consist of moving parts of underfunded pensions, bankrupt trust funds, the fraud of Obamacare, the welfare system, the education complex, military overspending, and a plethora of other wasteful programs funded by the unaware, eyes-shut, American public.

So, the start of 2016 isn't going to be anything monumental, despite the Dow losing 1273.62 in just the first eight trading sessions of the year. Bear in mind that the Dow has to lose roughly another 1500 points (to 14,679) before it's officially a bear market, and there's little doubt that this decline will eventually become a bear market with further downside from there.

No, the first few weeks of January, 2016 will likely be referred to as the "good old days," before the tsunami of deflation finally took hold of the global economy and would not let go. These will be recalled as the time before government fraud and waste was still acceptable, before we realized that unemployment wasn't really five percent, but 15%, or 20%, or more.

Today's trading was nothing short of a waterfall event. The main indices were up at the open, and in a classic bear market pattern, sold off and were negative within the first hour of the session. The Dow, which lost nearly 365 points, wasn't even the worst of it. In fact, on a percentage basis, it was the best of the three. The S&P lopped off 2.5%, the NASDAQ withstood a whopping 3.41% decline.

The 10-year note traded down to 2.05% and will be sporting a one-handle soon, possibly by the end of this week.

This isn't pretty. If you haven't gotten out of the way and out of stocks by now, and into cash or gold or silver, you have nobody to blame but your own greedy self.

Good luck winning the lottery, because your equity holdings are about to be wiped from the face of the earth.

Today's Sad Story
S&P 500: 1,890.28, -48.40 (2.50%)
Dow: 16,151.41, -364.81 (2.21%)
NASDAQ: 4,526.06, -159.85 (3.41%)

Crude Oil 30.40 -0.13% Gold 1,093.80 +0.79% EUR/USD 1.0881 +0.30% 10-Yr Bond 2.0660 -1.71% Corn 358.75 +0.56% Copper 1.95 -0.26% Silver 14.15 +2.90% Natural Gas 2.28 +1.20% Russell 2000 1,010.19 -3.30% VIX 25.22 +12.24% BATS 1000 20,143.62 -2.36% GBP/USD 1.4413 -0.15% USD/JPY 117.7130
1273.62

US Economy an Express Train to Nowhere

Where to begin...

Let's start with housing, which continues to be a complete bugaboo for the friends of the Fed (FOF), meaning governments at all levels, financial institutions, public sector employees (overpaid, irresponsible), welfare and entitlement recipients and anybody who spends beyond their means.

This morning, the NAR released their almost-fully-discredited monthly report on existing home sales, which, despite marvelous weather across most of the country, fell 0.9% in February as compared to January's figures. The NAR was quick to point out that sales rose 8.8% from a year earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.59 million.

Median prices were nearly flat, at $157,100, just 0.1% higher than February 2011.

It wasn't such a disheartening report, overall, but points to the idea that any uptick in activity is usually short-lived and not sustainable. Prices have remained mired in the mud, and, with interest rates on mortgages rising recently, March may have come in like a Lamb, weather-wise, but it may go out like a hungry lion in terms of real estate.

Then there was the brilliantly-timed commentary by Goldman Sachs chief global equity strategist, Peter Oppenheimer, titled "The Long Good Buy" which postulates that "the prospects for future returns in equities relative to bonds are as good as they've been in a generation."

Not to throw much cold water (a bathtub of ice might be more appropriate) on this particular bit of financial wisdom, but Mr. Oppenheimer and his buddies at the giant squid must think the muppets are prime for a fleecing. Stocks have not been at these current levels for more than 3 1/2 years, the major indices have pretty much doubled since the bottom of March '09 and he thinks NOW, today is a good time to buy stocks?

Not to be too pushy or overburdened with facts, but isn't the oldest bit of market timing knowledge to buy low, sell high? Oppenheimer seems to want to stand that time-worn adage on its head, which, considering the extent to which Goldman Sachs will go to defraud the public, the government and even its own clients, is about par for the course. (A video, assessing the relative value of Mr. Oppenheimer's call appears at the end of this post.)

As far as stocks are concerned, they are currently stalled out at high levels and while they floated along in bifurcated fashion through most of today's session, there was some significant selling pressure at the close. It probably means nothing, but if you think a quick selloff in stocks at the end of the day is a sure sign to buy more gold and silver, nobody around these parts is going to do anything to dissuade you from that line of thinking.

As usual, volume was unseen and at levels indicating a lack of interest, sponsorship or near-panic, but we've been over that bridge too many times already. Let it just be said that there are many, many, many fewer individual investors playing stocks than there were five years ago. Some went broke, some profited but are scared to death of the markets, others are merely awaiting a return to normalcy, something that isn't likely to occur until there's a crash, a credit "event", a war or something very ugly to shake the stranglehold of the banksters and politicians to their core.

Doug Casey offers three variations on the definition of a depression, plus some valuable insights in an interview, titled Doug Casey on the Illusion of a Recovery. It's an intelligent read. (Hint: Doug likes gold)

Dow 13,124.62, -45.57 (0.35%)
NASDAQ 3,075.32, +1.17 (0.04%)
S&P 500 1,402.89, -2.63 (0.19%)
NYSE Composite 8,219.33, -21.95 (0.27%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,551,352,875
NYSE Volume 3,534,241,000
Combined BYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2776-2764
Combined BYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 174-32
WTI crude oil: 107.27, +1.20
Gold: 1,650.30, +3.30
Silver: 32.23, +0.39

Stocks Slip for Second Straight Session

US stock indices finished in the red for the second straight day as another spate of so-so economic news crossed the new wires. It wasn't so much the initial jobless claims figures that shook things up - they were improved over the previous week at 550,000, but the continuing claims were higher, at 6.31 million, due to extensions in unemployment benefits keeping more workers on the government dime for longer than the usual 39 weeks.

With money coming in and no prospects for gainful employment on the horizon, many of those already furloughed are living check to check, those being furnished by government agencies. As long as no new jobs are being created, America will continue to devolve from a nation of entrepreneurs into a de facto welfare state, with government picking up the tab for everything from rent to food to health care to spending money. The hard side of that reality is for the businessman or woman who will face ever higher taxes and costs related to doing business with a sub-prime clientele.

The path of the nation doesn't have to be as stark, though the current crop of clowns in congress certainly seem to be pushing in that direction. Gone is the resolve to work hard, the commitment to family values and self-reliance. They are being rapidly replaced with the mantra of "good-for-the-whole" socialism, with all of its incentives for sloth, laziness, avarice and assorted vices. The malaise which began with a real estate bubble promoted by George W. Bush's "ownership society" - truly the most false and baseless political creed of recent memory - has proceeded along a perceptible, predictable and inescapable path to homelessness and destitution across a wide swath of the country.

Some areas are doing better than others, obviously, but the hardest hit are those which have suffered the double-whammy of rampant unemployment on top of foreclosures, such as Detroit, most of southern Florida, Las Vegas and many parts of exurbia Southern California. The deep South, never a bellwether for enterprise, is still largely backwards, the Northeast and West Coast are still culturally significant and maintaining a facade of social manners, though the biggest states - New York and California - are overburdened by huge government apparatus and absurdly high rates of taxation. The Midwest continues to hold pockets of civility, though many of the larger cities are reeling from the economic downturn.

While most to these realities are overlooked by the financial media and Wall Street's "everybody's an investor" mentality, the general welfare of the bulk of the lower and middle class populations is not of great concern so long as government largely continues to foot the bills. All of this works for smart companies who ignore the larger picture, have cut labor and other costs and continue to profit and take market share. The largess of the government these past five months has been like manna from heaven for many keen companies. They'll keep making money without regard to its source.

That's why the past two days haven't been very dramatic. Investor types know that their recent gains could eventually sour, but current government policies, like cash for clunkers, are greasing the wheels with billions of borrowed dollars. And those polices are going to stay in place and have other, similar, social-programming policies piled atop them. Business could care less, as long as the money continues to roll in.

Dow 9,256.26, -24.71 (0.27%)
NASDAQ 1,973.16, -19.89 (1.00%)
S&P 500 997.08, -5.64 (0.56%)
NYSE Composite 6,517.67, -40.52 (0.62%)

Declining issues grabbed the edge over advancers once again, today by a wider margin, 4185-2223, but new highs were better than new lows, 169-63. Volume continued to run at a less-leisurely pace than in previous weeks for the second straight day.

NYSE Volume 1,389,338,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,447,769,000

Commodity prices stagnated, with oil off 3 cents, to $71.94, gold down $3.40, to $962.90 and silver off 12 cents, at $14.65.

The real troubling news came from the retail sector, which has been taken out to pasture and summarily slaughtered over the past 12 months, as company after company reported dismal same-store sales in comparison to a year ago. Those retail figures are likely to remain bad until they can be matched up against already bad numbers, and that won't begin until November or December at the earliest. While retail wonks are concerned about back-to-school sales (somewhat of a non sequitur - how much beyond a few new items of clothing, notebooks, pens and gadgets do students really need?), the more serious concern is the holiday season, now less than five months out. After a dismal Christmas season for many retailers, the concern is that consumers will still be buying at less-than-robust levels. That may already be a given and currently being priced into many retail stocks, though the consumer tech area could really be hit hardest of all through the fall and winter.

Looking ahead to Friday, market sentiment will largely be in response to the government's non-farm employment report for July, which is expected to show job losses in the neighborhood of 325-375, 000. The number, unless it is completely out of line with the usual government massage, should fall into that range, which should cheer investors. The actual anticipatory knee-knocking trepidation leading up the the big Friday number has been overdone. While nobody expects miracles, any improvement will be billed as a good sign of a slowly recovering economy, whether or not that is actually the case. Espeically on the heels of ADP's private sector jobs number of -371,000 for July, released just yesterday, the government figure is quickly becoming an anachronistic afterthought, month after tiresome month.