Worldwide, market participants must have been conjuring up images of a rally over the long US holiday weekend, because stocks roared back with a vengeance on Tuesday, bringing hopes of a sensible solution to the Greek and pan-European miasma to a new level of unreality. Come June 17, Greek voters will once again go to the polls to elect some form of workable government, which can then form a majority and a consensus on whether to leave the Euro or stay with the abject horrors of austerity which bailout upon bailout imposes.
Status quo politicos are hoping that the Greek citizenry will come to see things as do the uber-governors of the European Union and opt to remain a part of the crumbling structure that has been in control for the past decade.
On the ground, not only in Greece, but in Italy and Spain as well, fear of rioting and widespread anarchy are swelling. Ordinary citizens are being berated with burdensome taxation, cuts to government programs and draconian measures implemented by overreaching, broken, debt riddled governments which will have to go back to the ECB and IMF for more money to keep the citizenry quieted.
The problem with the Euro system is that all countries are not created equal, as the currency masters would like to believe. Since the member states of the EU still have their own governments and constitutions, there are many vague differences that eventually will cause the euro currency experiment to fail, over and over again, until, as happens in Europe with great regularity, the agreements are scrapped, the currency debased and the counties continue to go about business as best suits themselves, as it should be.
After Greece votes on June 17, there will be a few days of disruption while the newly-elected parties sort out their differences and make a decision that will affect not only Greece, but all of the nations of the Eurozone. While staying a part of the EU may provide some short-term stability in Greece, we have already witnessed the effects of austerity that hasn't really worked, though a conclusion that separates Greece from the union will result in more widespread immediate pain and suffering for all of the EU nations, particularly Germany, which has actually benefitted from the weaker Euro and transfers of wealth from the south to the northern states.
In the meantime, stocks will bounce around on the news or rumors of the day, because, in reality, nobody is sure what a breakup of the Euro would entail, though the most knowledgeable people seem to agree that the immediate effects would be overwhelming to the entire global financial structure.
That's not to say that long-term it might just be better to scrap the Euro, go back to individual currencies with all of their own inefficiencies and idiosyncratic behaviors, send the banking system into a tailspin, pick up the chips where they fall and start over. At least then, the great and small countries of Europe will retain their own identities and sovereignties and another layer of useless politicians - those being the clueless EU ministers and all of their meaningless meetings, conferences and white papers - can be swept away in the process of history.
Dow 12,580.69, +125.86 (1.01%)
NASDAQ 2,870.99, +33.46 (1.18%)
S&P 500 1,332.42, +14.60 (1.11%)
NYSE Composite 7,614.78, +80.46 (1.07%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,562,855,750
NYSE Volume 3,314,985,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4187-1414
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 88-75
WTI crude oil: 90.76, -0.10
Gold: 1,548.70, -20.20
Silver: 27.79, -0.60
Tuesday, May 29, 2012
Friday, May 25, 2012
Markets Close Lower in Advance of 3-Day Weekend
Even with Friday's losses, stocks finished the week marginally higher overall, despite the coninuing, nagging issues plaguing investors from Europe, the foibles of Facebook, and JP Morgan's continuing non-hedge losses, which could end up costing the firm a couple of quarter's worth of earnings.
The Industrials took the bulk of the pain today, as once again, the various indices did not automatically align. Thankfully, it's the start of a three-day weekend, so, to the three of you actually reading this and not out enjoying the Friday afternoon, what the heck is wrong with you?
We'll get back to dissecting the crumbling fiat currency regime on Tuesday, when markets are expected to open. A day may come when they don't, but for now, they still be to be the favored playgrounds of the rich, famous, infamous and criminally insane, and, frankly, they need the work.
Have a great weekend, try not to think about your investments too much (unless they're in gold, silver, real estate or guns and ammo) and enjoy life a bit. It's really not that long a stay each of us have here.
As always, Free Houses for Everyone!
Dow 12,454.83, -74.92 (0.60%)
Nasdaq 2,837.53, -1.85 (0.07%)
S&P 500 1,317.82, -2.86 (0.22%)
NYSE Composite 7534.33, -18.03 (0.24%)
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2819-2711
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 53-69
WTI crude oil: 90.86, +0.20
Gold: 1,568.90, +11.40
Silver: 28.39, +0.23
The Industrials took the bulk of the pain today, as once again, the various indices did not automatically align. Thankfully, it's the start of a three-day weekend, so, to the three of you actually reading this and not out enjoying the Friday afternoon, what the heck is wrong with you?
We'll get back to dissecting the crumbling fiat currency regime on Tuesday, when markets are expected to open. A day may come when they don't, but for now, they still be to be the favored playgrounds of the rich, famous, infamous and criminally insane, and, frankly, they need the work.
Have a great weekend, try not to think about your investments too much (unless they're in gold, silver, real estate or guns and ammo) and enjoy life a bit. It's really not that long a stay each of us have here.
As always, Free Houses for Everyone!
Dow 12,454.83, -74.92 (0.60%)
Nasdaq 2,837.53, -1.85 (0.07%)
S&P 500 1,317.82, -2.86 (0.22%)
NYSE Composite 7534.33, -18.03 (0.24%)
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2819-2711
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 53-69
WTI crude oil: 90.86, +0.20
Gold: 1,568.90, +11.40
Silver: 28.39, +0.23
Thursday, May 24, 2012
Bifurcated Markets a Sure Sign of Trouble In Fantasy Finance Land
It should be pain as the day that there are many issues and headwinds facing financial markets in the current crisis situation. Today's trading, taking bounces up and down in a directionless trading session is yet another indictment of the power players' control - or lack thereof - during a turbulent period.
When markets react in odd ways, as similar ones diverge, correlations break down and generally things zig when they are expected to zag, one index is up while another is down, it's a sign of malaise and weariness, signifying not only trouble in the current time frame, but of more problems to come.
After Wednesday's hockey stick save off the lows on a temporary reversal of sentiment regarding Europe - which was wholly manufactured and false, by the way - in which all the major indices moved in the same direction at the same time, today's sloppiness could be attributed to speculative bets in different sectors, though the possibility that there are diverging opinions driving indices in different directions is palpable.
Even though the day's range - 120 points on the Dow; 32 points on the NASDAQ, the two did not move in anything even remotely resembling synchronicity. The Dow finished to the positive, the NASDAQ ended in the red.
Some may posit that these moves are by design, though that's a bit of a stretch even in this space, in which all conspiracy theories are given ample credit at least for the fact that somebody's paying attention.
In what was one of the least-inspiring trading days of the past two weeks, the best that can be said of today's performance was that it was at least back to the norm of low volume and moves without conviction. Europe has been quieted for the time being (don't worry, that will change), the Facebook IPO malaise is fading from the news cycle and JP Morgan is still losing money on the "London Whale" non-hedge hedge.
Eventually, all of these items and more either get swept under the Wall Street rug of fraud and collusion or explode in the faces of the criminal cartel that traverses the canyons of lower Manhattan as glad-handing gentlemen.
One would suppose that a break in the action might be a good thing, though if one is circumspect enough to check the recent charts of the major indices, one would have to be blind not to notice that the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ are all trading well below their 50-day moving averages and hovering just above their 200-DMA, a dangerous position. They're also taken off about 50% of the move higher from mid-December to the end of April, a retracement that adherents of Fibonacci will note as an area of support. In that regard, the indices have moved in synchronous fashion, though with their own idiosyncratic tendencies.
Two telling signs from market internals suggest there easily could be more downside in days and weeks to come. The advance-decline line has been negative 12 of the last 17 sessions, while there have been more new lows than new highs for 10 consecutive sessions and on 14 of the last 15 trading days.
This is an interesting time for markets, stuck in no-man's land without the support of earnings, driven by news, events and data flow.
Dow 12,529.75, +33.60 (0.27%)
NASDAQ 2,839.38, -10.74 (0.38%)
S&P 500 1,320.68, -1.82 (0.14%)
NYSE Composite 7,552.35, -11.45 (0.15%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,737,819,375
NYSE Volume 3,776,796,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3082-2527
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 55-111
WTI crude oil: 90.66, +0.76
Gold: 1,557.50, +9.10
Silver: 28.16, +0.64
When markets react in odd ways, as similar ones diverge, correlations break down and generally things zig when they are expected to zag, one index is up while another is down, it's a sign of malaise and weariness, signifying not only trouble in the current time frame, but of more problems to come.
After Wednesday's hockey stick save off the lows on a temporary reversal of sentiment regarding Europe - which was wholly manufactured and false, by the way - in which all the major indices moved in the same direction at the same time, today's sloppiness could be attributed to speculative bets in different sectors, though the possibility that there are diverging opinions driving indices in different directions is palpable.
Even though the day's range - 120 points on the Dow; 32 points on the NASDAQ, the two did not move in anything even remotely resembling synchronicity. The Dow finished to the positive, the NASDAQ ended in the red.
Some may posit that these moves are by design, though that's a bit of a stretch even in this space, in which all conspiracy theories are given ample credit at least for the fact that somebody's paying attention.
In what was one of the least-inspiring trading days of the past two weeks, the best that can be said of today's performance was that it was at least back to the norm of low volume and moves without conviction. Europe has been quieted for the time being (don't worry, that will change), the Facebook IPO malaise is fading from the news cycle and JP Morgan is still losing money on the "London Whale" non-hedge hedge.
Eventually, all of these items and more either get swept under the Wall Street rug of fraud and collusion or explode in the faces of the criminal cartel that traverses the canyons of lower Manhattan as glad-handing gentlemen.
One would suppose that a break in the action might be a good thing, though if one is circumspect enough to check the recent charts of the major indices, one would have to be blind not to notice that the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ are all trading well below their 50-day moving averages and hovering just above their 200-DMA, a dangerous position. They're also taken off about 50% of the move higher from mid-December to the end of April, a retracement that adherents of Fibonacci will note as an area of support. In that regard, the indices have moved in synchronous fashion, though with their own idiosyncratic tendencies.
Two telling signs from market internals suggest there easily could be more downside in days and weeks to come. The advance-decline line has been negative 12 of the last 17 sessions, while there have been more new lows than new highs for 10 consecutive sessions and on 14 of the last 15 trading days.
This is an interesting time for markets, stuck in no-man's land without the support of earnings, driven by news, events and data flow.
Dow 12,529.75, +33.60 (0.27%)
NASDAQ 2,839.38, -10.74 (0.38%)
S&P 500 1,320.68, -1.82 (0.14%)
NYSE Composite 7,552.35, -11.45 (0.15%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,737,819,375
NYSE Volume 3,776,796,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3082-2527
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 55-111
WTI crude oil: 90.66, +0.76
Gold: 1,557.50, +9.10
Silver: 28.16, +0.64
Wednesday, May 23, 2012
Greece - and Italy, Portugal, Ireland and Spain - Will Exit the Euro Despite Double-Talk from Political Leaders
Despite the dramatic midday turnaround based on a fully orchestrated recantation of yesterday's statement by Lucas Papademos that preparations were being made in Greece for an exit from the Euro, there were few winners besides the informed insiders who knew the former prime minister was going to reverse himself today.
In Europe, the markets reacted as though a catastrophe could not be avoided, with all of the major stock exchanges down sharply, having already closed before the corrective statement by Papademos was released.
Leading the carnage on the continent were Italy and Greece, though the German DAX and French CAC-40 both fell by more than two percent.
Today, in a brief (staged) interview with CNBC's Senior International Correspondent (what a joke) Michelle Caruso-Cabrera, Papademoms said there were indeed no preparations underway in Greece for possibly exiting the Euro, in complete contradiction of what he said on Tuesday. Perhaps the man has either a short attention span, difficulty parsing his own words, or a combination of both. In any case, it appears that politicians can speak out of both sides of their mouths, but not exactly at the same moment in time.
This is, of course, what the general public will swallow whole, as the technocratic propaganda machine revved into high gear, staving off - for a time - the inevitable. Anybody with a brian larger than the average goldfish knows that Greece will surely leave the Euro, setting off a chain of events that will likely disintegrate the entire supra-governmental apparatus of the EU, the ECB and the global financial system.
However, for the politicians in charge of maintaining the status quo, events have overtaken them and they are in an all-out panic to keep things under control. Greece's (and to a large degree, Spain, Italy, Portugal and Ireland) continued living on borrowed time and borrowed money is only making conditions within the Eurozone more difficult, especially for the northern states, especially Germany, which is largely footing the bill for the entire escapade into fantasy finance.
The southern states of Europe are already broken, as is the EU, but the control freaks running the show have a schedule to keep, so events and farces such as this will likely occur with more frequency as the entire situation spins out of control. Everything points toward a dissolution of the EU, timed for maximum impact upon the US elections, which are still six months away. The plan is apparently to crater the entire financial system within six weeks of the US presidential elections, just in time to jettison the hopes of the puppet-in-chief, Barack Obama, and prance out the new marionette, Adolph, er, Mitt Romney, who will usher in the end of the American experiment with harsher control over the populace, who are, after all, only bit players.
With leaders who will stop at nothing in their efforts to maintain and wield power over vast populations, one can expect the rising police state that has already manifested itself throughout much of Europe and England to arise fully-formed in the United States.
Events such as those of the last two days, in which a somewhat respected, reliable politician goes off script and promptly reverses himself - and to which the markets respond - are just another stunning example of the kind of control the banks and politicians have over regular people.
There is no longer any trust of elected officials in most of the developed world and it's because they have taken the people's trust, and their rights, and burned them in flames of self-importance and pitiful glory.
Dow 12,496.15, -6.66 (0.05%)
NASDAQ 2,850.12, +11.04 (0.39%)
S&P 500 1,318.86, +2.23 (0.17%)
NYSE Composite 7,540.89, -1.68 (0.02%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,928,258,875
NYSE Volume 4,079,574,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3226-2370
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 34-243
WTI crude oil: 89.90, -1.95
Gold: 1,548.40, -28.80
Silver: 27.52, -0.66
In Europe, the markets reacted as though a catastrophe could not be avoided, with all of the major stock exchanges down sharply, having already closed before the corrective statement by Papademos was released.
Leading the carnage on the continent were Italy and Greece, though the German DAX and French CAC-40 both fell by more than two percent.
Today, in a brief (staged) interview with CNBC's Senior International Correspondent (what a joke) Michelle Caruso-Cabrera, Papademoms said there were indeed no preparations underway in Greece for possibly exiting the Euro, in complete contradiction of what he said on Tuesday. Perhaps the man has either a short attention span, difficulty parsing his own words, or a combination of both. In any case, it appears that politicians can speak out of both sides of their mouths, but not exactly at the same moment in time.
This is, of course, what the general public will swallow whole, as the technocratic propaganda machine revved into high gear, staving off - for a time - the inevitable. Anybody with a brian larger than the average goldfish knows that Greece will surely leave the Euro, setting off a chain of events that will likely disintegrate the entire supra-governmental apparatus of the EU, the ECB and the global financial system.
However, for the politicians in charge of maintaining the status quo, events have overtaken them and they are in an all-out panic to keep things under control. Greece's (and to a large degree, Spain, Italy, Portugal and Ireland) continued living on borrowed time and borrowed money is only making conditions within the Eurozone more difficult, especially for the northern states, especially Germany, which is largely footing the bill for the entire escapade into fantasy finance.
The southern states of Europe are already broken, as is the EU, but the control freaks running the show have a schedule to keep, so events and farces such as this will likely occur with more frequency as the entire situation spins out of control. Everything points toward a dissolution of the EU, timed for maximum impact upon the US elections, which are still six months away. The plan is apparently to crater the entire financial system within six weeks of the US presidential elections, just in time to jettison the hopes of the puppet-in-chief, Barack Obama, and prance out the new marionette, Adolph, er, Mitt Romney, who will usher in the end of the American experiment with harsher control over the populace, who are, after all, only bit players.
With leaders who will stop at nothing in their efforts to maintain and wield power over vast populations, one can expect the rising police state that has already manifested itself throughout much of Europe and England to arise fully-formed in the United States.
Events such as those of the last two days, in which a somewhat respected, reliable politician goes off script and promptly reverses himself - and to which the markets respond - are just another stunning example of the kind of control the banks and politicians have over regular people.
There is no longer any trust of elected officials in most of the developed world and it's because they have taken the people's trust, and their rights, and burned them in flames of self-importance and pitiful glory.
Dow 12,496.15, -6.66 (0.05%)
NASDAQ 2,850.12, +11.04 (0.39%)
S&P 500 1,318.86, +2.23 (0.17%)
NYSE Composite 7,540.89, -1.68 (0.02%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,928,258,875
NYSE Volume 4,079,574,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3226-2370
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 34-243
WTI crude oil: 89.90, -1.95
Gold: 1,548.40, -28.80
Silver: 27.52, -0.66
Tuesday, May 22, 2012
Stocks Slide Late After More Evidence of Greek Exit from Euro Spooks Markets
The headline really says it all on today's turnaround Tuesday.
With the major averages putting in a nice follow-up to Monday's lift-off, the major indices were set to put in their second winning day in a row. The Dow was sporting a 50-point advance just after 3:00 p EDT when word came out of Greece by former Prime Minister Lucas Papademos, saying that preparations for an exit of Greece from the Euro zone are being considered, and said the scope to renegotiate the ongoing EU and IMF loan program would be "very limited."
That's when a 50-point gain became a 50-point loss in a matter of minutes, though all of the major indices recovered to end the session nearly unchanged.
Overnight, this news will likely sink in a little further and it would be expected that Asian and European market would open tomorrow lower. As word of Papademos' statement spread, the worst victim was the Euro, which fell below 1.27 to the dollar on foreign exchanges.
It is fascinating to watch how this entire Greek drama is being played out, especially in reference to market response. As event have unfolded over the past year to 18 months, market reaction has become one of initial knee-jerking, followed by bouts of disbelief and buying into the dips, though as the situation has turned from bad to worse in Greece, stocks seem more inclined to shrug off any bad news, whereas, earlier, like in September of last year, markets took violent, hefty swings on dispatches from the continent.
What will occur in global markets when the Hellenic state is finally on its own again and officially dismissed from the Eurozone - now a 90% chance according to most euro experts - is anybody's guess, though most investors are girding for the worst case, reminiscent of the Lehman breakdown back in '08, though this time around, there's been plenty of time to prepare.
The other major story of the day concerned Facebook, as the NASDAQ continues attempts at cleaning up the mess that they created. Due to technical issues in their electronic trading system, as of Tuesday morning, some investors still had not received confirmation of their trades and the NASDAQ was talking about raising its own loss provision for bad trades from $3 million to $13 million, as trading desks and market makers toll their losses.
It was also revealed today that Morgan Stanley's analysis arm had downgraded the stock just prior to the IPO, another odd and damaging situation, given that Morgan Stanley (MS) was the lead underwriter on the deal. The firm, by law, is supposed to have a "Chinese wall" between analysts and underwriters, but one has to wonder if the firm was shorting the IPO a la Goldman Sachs. The situation will be investigated, though it's highly doubtful that anything will come of it, in as much as the trades were such a convoluted mess one wonders if officials will ever be able to untangle the mess.
Facebook closed the day at 31.00, a full seven points below Friday's IPO price, with a loss of 3.03 (8.90%). Founder and CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, who was supposed to have bankrolled $18 in paper profits on the public opening of the company, may have to just suffer through life with a measly $15 billion.
Yep, life sure is tough.
Dow 12,502.81, -1.67 (0.01%)
NASDAQ 2,839.08, -8.13 (0.29%)
S&P 500 1,316.63, +0.64 (0.05%)
NYSE Composite 7,532.32, -10.66 (0.14%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,755,814,375.00
NYSE Volume 4,056,273,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2522-3114
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 45-113
WTI crude oil: 91.66, 0.91
Gold: 1,576.60, -12.10
Silver: 28.18, -0.14
With the major averages putting in a nice follow-up to Monday's lift-off, the major indices were set to put in their second winning day in a row. The Dow was sporting a 50-point advance just after 3:00 p EDT when word came out of Greece by former Prime Minister Lucas Papademos, saying that preparations for an exit of Greece from the Euro zone are being considered, and said the scope to renegotiate the ongoing EU and IMF loan program would be "very limited."
That's when a 50-point gain became a 50-point loss in a matter of minutes, though all of the major indices recovered to end the session nearly unchanged.
Overnight, this news will likely sink in a little further and it would be expected that Asian and European market would open tomorrow lower. As word of Papademos' statement spread, the worst victim was the Euro, which fell below 1.27 to the dollar on foreign exchanges.
It is fascinating to watch how this entire Greek drama is being played out, especially in reference to market response. As event have unfolded over the past year to 18 months, market reaction has become one of initial knee-jerking, followed by bouts of disbelief and buying into the dips, though as the situation has turned from bad to worse in Greece, stocks seem more inclined to shrug off any bad news, whereas, earlier, like in September of last year, markets took violent, hefty swings on dispatches from the continent.
What will occur in global markets when the Hellenic state is finally on its own again and officially dismissed from the Eurozone - now a 90% chance according to most euro experts - is anybody's guess, though most investors are girding for the worst case, reminiscent of the Lehman breakdown back in '08, though this time around, there's been plenty of time to prepare.
The other major story of the day concerned Facebook, as the NASDAQ continues attempts at cleaning up the mess that they created. Due to technical issues in their electronic trading system, as of Tuesday morning, some investors still had not received confirmation of their trades and the NASDAQ was talking about raising its own loss provision for bad trades from $3 million to $13 million, as trading desks and market makers toll their losses.
It was also revealed today that Morgan Stanley's analysis arm had downgraded the stock just prior to the IPO, another odd and damaging situation, given that Morgan Stanley (MS) was the lead underwriter on the deal. The firm, by law, is supposed to have a "Chinese wall" between analysts and underwriters, but one has to wonder if the firm was shorting the IPO a la Goldman Sachs. The situation will be investigated, though it's highly doubtful that anything will come of it, in as much as the trades were such a convoluted mess one wonders if officials will ever be able to untangle the mess.
Facebook closed the day at 31.00, a full seven points below Friday's IPO price, with a loss of 3.03 (8.90%). Founder and CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, who was supposed to have bankrolled $18 in paper profits on the public opening of the company, may have to just suffer through life with a measly $15 billion.
Yep, life sure is tough.
Dow 12,502.81, -1.67 (0.01%)
NASDAQ 2,839.08, -8.13 (0.29%)
S&P 500 1,316.63, +0.64 (0.05%)
NYSE Composite 7,532.32, -10.66 (0.14%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,755,814,375.00
NYSE Volume 4,056,273,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2522-3114
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 45-113
WTI crude oil: 91.66, 0.91
Gold: 1,576.60, -12.10
Silver: 28.18, -0.14
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)
Posts
