Looking as hard as possible for positive news upon which to launch a rally, the Wall Street casino got what it wanted from US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, who brokered a truce in the ongoing warfare between the state of Israel and militants in the Gaza Strip.
Announced just after noon Eastern Time, the truce was to begin at 2:00 pm ET, or roughly 9:00 pm Tel Aviv time.
How long the truce will remain n force is anybody's guess. The conflict in the Palestinian area of the Middle East has been going on for as long as most of us can remember, so whatever is achieved will be short-term at best, just like almost everything else these days, a matter of how far down a given road one can kick a can.
Outside the news that Palestinians and Israelis won't be trying to kill each other overtly for a few days, there was little going on to make investors optimistic.
Hostess, which had been in bankruptcy and was the recent victim of an ill-advised strike by the baker's union, went through a day of mediation and returned to court, where the judge signed off on liquidation of the company that used to make Ho-Hos, Twinkies, Ding-Dongs and assorted junk foods that have contributed in no small way to the epidemic of diabetes in this country.
Probably, it's for the good of the country - and fata$$es worldwide - that the company goes under.
Looking ahead, there's a half-day session on Friday, following the Thanksgiving holiday, which usually results in an eventually meaningless Black Friday rally as millions of misguided Americans crowd stores, malls and shopping centers to buy worthless trinkets and electronic gadgets for friends and relatives.
Too bad Christmas will never get here, as the world is scheduled to end on December 22, according to the Incas, or Aztecs, or somebody.
Well, nobody likes a Scrooge at this time of year, so...
Free iPads and Houses for Everybody! And free Twinkies, too!
Happy Thanksgiving. Stay hungry, my friends.
Dow 12,836.89, +48.38 (0.38%)
Nasdaq 2,926.55, +9.87 (0.34%)
S&P 500 1,391.03, +3.22 (0.23%)
NYSE Composite 8,112.20, +25.78 (0.32%)
NYSE Volume 2,647,812,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,406,020,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3577-1856
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 108-71
WTI crude oil: 87.38, +0.63
Gold: 1,728.20, +4.60
Silver: 33.35, +0.42
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
Tuesday, November 20, 2012
Amid Flurry of News and Rumor, Stocks End Flat
It's not official until Thursday, but we're pretty much in the holiday season, which means a few things:
1. Trading volumes should be low;
2. Volatility will not manifest (unless there's a war or no deal on the fiscal cliff);
3. A lot of people will be booking profits, i.e., selling;
4. Nobody will take anything with any enormous level of seriousness; people will be more concerned with shopping, eating and visiting relatives and friends.
While those are broad considerations, they more than likely point to a sideways-moving market for the next few weeks. Not to say that there won't be money to be made - there always is - but adroitness and nimble movements will be the key to staying just slightly ahead of the curve.
There's a very good possibility that although the general indices will remain somewhat range-bound, the actual swings could be large from lows to highs. Considering that the Dow is coming off an 1100 point decline, there's room on the upside as well as ample opportunity for the congress and president to blow the whole deal on the fiscal cliff - in fact, the likelihood of them posturing, fuming, arguing and delaying the deal until the last possible moment is paramount.
So, the advice for the remainder of 2012 is as follows: play along, keep tight stops, but look for opportunities as they present themselves. We're going nowhere but sideways to down, with the probability of an upside move of say, 500 Dow points, about zero, while the probability of a huge move in the opposite direction is about 30=40%.
During the recent pullback, every rally was sold into, and every sell-off was partially exacerbated by a little bit of panic - not over losing money, but losing what profits one had already achieved. There were two major downdrafts over the past month: the first, mid-to-late October, and the second, larger move, right after the election and lasting until yesterday.
Anyone paying attention will note that the Dow and the BASDAQ are both still mired below their 200-day moving averages, while the S&P continues to flirt with the up-and-downside of its own 200-day MA. These are difficult positions to maintain, and, in the case of all of the major indices, there is nearly unlimited potential to slide, as no solid support is evident. Today's scary mid-afternoon plunge was fought off by some spirited insider buying. If there's any clue to the action, it's that those heavily-invested in this market are not fully out, nor are they fully exposed. There's still too much on the table needing to be resolved.
Just as yesterday's rally was a one-off event, so too today's nothing finish after a number of major events, including a possible truce in the Israel-Hamas conflict (not gonna happen), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) writing down nine billion of an $11 billion investment and claiming fraud; the biggest insider trading scheme ever being exposed and set to be prosecuted. That was almost enough to tip the averages over the edge, but, for whatever reasons and whatever positions they are defending, the big money inside Wall Street was not about to let it happen. Not certainly just before a holiday and the start of the retail buying spree.
It's going to get more interesting, but not until next week. In the meantime, everybody's on pins and needles, not the kind of seat one would prefer for a Thanksgiving dinner.
Dow 12,788.51, -7.45 (0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,916.68, +0.61 (0.02%)
S&P 500 1,387.81, +0.92 (0.07%)
NYSE Composite 8,086.41, +6.12(0.08%)
NYSE Volume 3,182,159,250
Nasdaq Volume 1,585,562,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2870-2606
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 108-88
WTI crude oil: 86.75, -2.53
Gold: 1,723.60, -10.80
Silver: 32.93, -0.259
1. Trading volumes should be low;
2. Volatility will not manifest (unless there's a war or no deal on the fiscal cliff);
3. A lot of people will be booking profits, i.e., selling;
4. Nobody will take anything with any enormous level of seriousness; people will be more concerned with shopping, eating and visiting relatives and friends.
While those are broad considerations, they more than likely point to a sideways-moving market for the next few weeks. Not to say that there won't be money to be made - there always is - but adroitness and nimble movements will be the key to staying just slightly ahead of the curve.
There's a very good possibility that although the general indices will remain somewhat range-bound, the actual swings could be large from lows to highs. Considering that the Dow is coming off an 1100 point decline, there's room on the upside as well as ample opportunity for the congress and president to blow the whole deal on the fiscal cliff - in fact, the likelihood of them posturing, fuming, arguing and delaying the deal until the last possible moment is paramount.
So, the advice for the remainder of 2012 is as follows: play along, keep tight stops, but look for opportunities as they present themselves. We're going nowhere but sideways to down, with the probability of an upside move of say, 500 Dow points, about zero, while the probability of a huge move in the opposite direction is about 30=40%.
During the recent pullback, every rally was sold into, and every sell-off was partially exacerbated by a little bit of panic - not over losing money, but losing what profits one had already achieved. There were two major downdrafts over the past month: the first, mid-to-late October, and the second, larger move, right after the election and lasting until yesterday.
Anyone paying attention will note that the Dow and the BASDAQ are both still mired below their 200-day moving averages, while the S&P continues to flirt with the up-and-downside of its own 200-day MA. These are difficult positions to maintain, and, in the case of all of the major indices, there is nearly unlimited potential to slide, as no solid support is evident. Today's scary mid-afternoon plunge was fought off by some spirited insider buying. If there's any clue to the action, it's that those heavily-invested in this market are not fully out, nor are they fully exposed. There's still too much on the table needing to be resolved.
Just as yesterday's rally was a one-off event, so too today's nothing finish after a number of major events, including a possible truce in the Israel-Hamas conflict (not gonna happen), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) writing down nine billion of an $11 billion investment and claiming fraud; the biggest insider trading scheme ever being exposed and set to be prosecuted. That was almost enough to tip the averages over the edge, but, for whatever reasons and whatever positions they are defending, the big money inside Wall Street was not about to let it happen. Not certainly just before a holiday and the start of the retail buying spree.
It's going to get more interesting, but not until next week. In the meantime, everybody's on pins and needles, not the kind of seat one would prefer for a Thanksgiving dinner.
Dow 12,788.51, -7.45 (0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,916.68, +0.61 (0.02%)
S&P 500 1,387.81, +0.92 (0.07%)
NYSE Composite 8,086.41, +6.12(0.08%)
NYSE Volume 3,182,159,250
Nasdaq Volume 1,585,562,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2870-2606
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 108-88
WTI crude oil: 86.75, -2.53
Gold: 1,723.60, -10.80
Silver: 32.93, -0.259
Monday, November 19, 2012
Washington Goes Home, Wall Street Throws a Party
President Obama is in the Far East on a multi-nation god-will tour. The rest of the politicians in Washington, the congress, have mostly gone back to their districts for a holiday break (that's why we love our "leaders" so much - while we get a four-day weekend, they take the whole week off.
With nobody around to moan and bemoan the national crisis known as the fiscal cliff, Wall Street took the opportunity to buy everything in sight - even before Black Friday, as sentiment has shifted from worrisome to ebullient and a majority of traders think that congress and the president will come to some kind of deal prior to the January 1 deadline.
While such optimism may be well-founded, it also may not be. There's still no deal to speak of, and the politicos won't get to work on one until next Monday at the earliest. One would think that people as smart as those on Wall Street would know better than to trust the words of politicians, especially this current bunch, which has a track record of disagreeing on just about everything, but the bulls took command on Monday and sent stocks soaring into the stratosphere.
It should figure. There are a full five weeks until the next payday, otherwise known as options expiration, on Friday, December 21, and plenty of time for stocks to rise or fall. Also, all the inside money made all the best moves, as stocks went skyward right at the open, locking out the less nimble and less-connected retail investors.
There was more good news on housing, as existing home sales rose 2.1% month-over-month and the homebuilders' index catapulted to levels not seen since the giddy, boom days of 2006.
So, all of a sudden, everything is rosy again. Until it's not, that is, which should be tomorrow or maybe some time next week.
It pays to pay attention to this attention-deficit market, though it may not pay to actually participate in it.
The show continues tomorrow...
Meanwhile, in the basement of the Federal Reserve, is Ben Bernanke quietly printing a gazillion dollars on his HP Officejet 4620 Wireless Multifunction Printer - Wireless Printers (Google Affiliate Ad)?
Dow 12,795.96, +207.65(1.65%)
NASDAQ 2,916.07, +62.94(2.21%)
S&P 500 1,386.89, +27.01(1.99%)
NYSE Composite 8,080.29, +148.74(1.88%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,766,584,880
NYSE Volume 3,335,809,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4681-872
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 75-85
WTI crude oil: 89.28, +2.36
Gold: 1,734.40, +19.70
Silver: 33.19, +0.819
With nobody around to moan and bemoan the national crisis known as the fiscal cliff, Wall Street took the opportunity to buy everything in sight - even before Black Friday, as sentiment has shifted from worrisome to ebullient and a majority of traders think that congress and the president will come to some kind of deal prior to the January 1 deadline.
While such optimism may be well-founded, it also may not be. There's still no deal to speak of, and the politicos won't get to work on one until next Monday at the earliest. One would think that people as smart as those on Wall Street would know better than to trust the words of politicians, especially this current bunch, which has a track record of disagreeing on just about everything, but the bulls took command on Monday and sent stocks soaring into the stratosphere.
It should figure. There are a full five weeks until the next payday, otherwise known as options expiration, on Friday, December 21, and plenty of time for stocks to rise or fall. Also, all the inside money made all the best moves, as stocks went skyward right at the open, locking out the less nimble and less-connected retail investors.
There was more good news on housing, as existing home sales rose 2.1% month-over-month and the homebuilders' index catapulted to levels not seen since the giddy, boom days of 2006.
So, all of a sudden, everything is rosy again. Until it's not, that is, which should be tomorrow or maybe some time next week.
It pays to pay attention to this attention-deficit market, though it may not pay to actually participate in it.
The show continues tomorrow...
Meanwhile, in the basement of the Federal Reserve, is Ben Bernanke quietly printing a gazillion dollars on his HP Officejet 4620 Wireless Multifunction Printer - Wireless Printers (Google Affiliate Ad)?
Dow 12,795.96, +207.65(1.65%)
NASDAQ 2,916.07, +62.94(2.21%)
S&P 500 1,386.89, +27.01(1.99%)
NYSE Composite 8,080.29, +148.74(1.88%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,766,584,880
NYSE Volume 3,335,809,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4681-872
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 75-85
WTI crude oil: 89.28, +2.36
Gold: 1,734.40, +19.70
Silver: 33.19, +0.819
Friday, November 16, 2012
John Boehner Rescues Markets... for Today
Stocks were slip-sliding away again on Friday until Speaker of the House, Republican John Boehner, emerged from a meeting with the president sounding very conciliatory and committed to a deal on the fiscal cliff issues facing the federal government.
Boehner spoke to the press just before noon, as stocks reached their lows of the day. Following his remarks that there was a "framework" in the negotiations - which include fellow Republican Mitch McConnell, Nancy Peolsi and Senate majority leader Harry Reid - stocks took off on a tear, with all the major indices quickly erasing losses and turing positive, where they remained, for the most part, into the close.
The Dow, which had been sporting a loss of 71 points, rallied 120 points in a matter of twenty minutes.
Boehner has a tricky path to navigate, between playing hard ball with Democrats while keeping his fellow Republicans - especially those of the Tea Party denomination - from mutiny and potentially blowing up negotiations, but for today, at least, he played the part of a Wall Street superhero.
A couple of other salient points on which to close out the week:
October industrial production dropped 0.4% and capacity utilization fell from 78.2 to 77.8, a significant decline, suggesting that the economy may not be just limping along, but actually slipping.
The advance-decline line was positive for the first time this week, though new lows were once again ahead of new highs, for the eighth consecutive session, or, for those cynics in our midst, since the re-election of President Obama.
It was a real downer of a week for the bulls, especially being options expiry on Friday, a day usually reserved for back-slapping and rounds of drinks over big scores. There was probably more crying into beers late this afternoon than glad-handing fellow insiders.
That's a wrap, and don't expect much next week, as the market faces a short week with a half-day session on Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving. Additionally, President Obama will be visiting the Far East during the week, so no meaningful negotiations are likely until his return and after the weekend, leaving the politicians just about four weeks before Christmas to work things out.
Good luck with that.
Dow 12,588.31, +45.93 (0.37%)
NASDAQ 2,853.13, +16.19 (0.57%)
S&P 500 1,359.88, +6.55 (0.48%)
NYSE Composite 7,931.55, +34.67 (0.44%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,191,482,500
NYSE Volume 3,991,566,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3638-1796
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 28-329
WTI crude oil: 86.67, +1.22
Gold: 1,714.70, +0.90
Silver: 32.37, -0.304
Boehner spoke to the press just before noon, as stocks reached their lows of the day. Following his remarks that there was a "framework" in the negotiations - which include fellow Republican Mitch McConnell, Nancy Peolsi and Senate majority leader Harry Reid - stocks took off on a tear, with all the major indices quickly erasing losses and turing positive, where they remained, for the most part, into the close.
The Dow, which had been sporting a loss of 71 points, rallied 120 points in a matter of twenty minutes.
Boehner has a tricky path to navigate, between playing hard ball with Democrats while keeping his fellow Republicans - especially those of the Tea Party denomination - from mutiny and potentially blowing up negotiations, but for today, at least, he played the part of a Wall Street superhero.
A couple of other salient points on which to close out the week:
October industrial production dropped 0.4% and capacity utilization fell from 78.2 to 77.8, a significant decline, suggesting that the economy may not be just limping along, but actually slipping.
The advance-decline line was positive for the first time this week, though new lows were once again ahead of new highs, for the eighth consecutive session, or, for those cynics in our midst, since the re-election of President Obama.
It was a real downer of a week for the bulls, especially being options expiry on Friday, a day usually reserved for back-slapping and rounds of drinks over big scores. There was probably more crying into beers late this afternoon than glad-handing fellow insiders.
That's a wrap, and don't expect much next week, as the market faces a short week with a half-day session on Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving. Additionally, President Obama will be visiting the Far East during the week, so no meaningful negotiations are likely until his return and after the weekend, leaving the politicians just about four weeks before Christmas to work things out.
Good luck with that.
Dow 12,588.31, +45.93 (0.37%)
NASDAQ 2,853.13, +16.19 (0.57%)
S&P 500 1,359.88, +6.55 (0.48%)
NYSE Composite 7,931.55, +34.67 (0.44%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,191,482,500
NYSE Volume 3,991,566,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3638-1796
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 28-329
WTI crude oil: 86.67, +1.22
Gold: 1,714.70, +0.90
Silver: 32.37, -0.304
Thursday, November 15, 2012
Stocks Stabilize, Still End Lower as More Trouble Looms
After Wednesday's wicked downdraft, cooler heads prevailed in Thursday's trading, keeping losses to a minimum as bargain-hunters swooped in to snatch up some shares of stocks which look to be marked down for a pre-Christmas sale.
Whether or not these so-called "bargains" will turn into winners is anybody's guess, though the real experts in market dynamics see more trouble ahead as Washington tries to come to a deal before January 1 of 2013, when mandatory spending cuts and tax increases are set to take place.
Placing one's hope - and one's money - on politicians in Washington actually accomplishing anything of such importance is akin to betting on a cheap claimer in a stakes race: the odds are very much against it.
As was the case with the battle over raising the debt limit last August, the DC crowd has shown no willingness to compromise on much of anything and the "fiscal cliff" issue is right up drama alley for our clownish elected leaders.
Eventually, the adult in the room seems to be the president, Barack Obama, who must navigate the press and the pressure of dealing with an intractable house of representatives, whose sole mission seems to be to spare the wealthiest two percent of earners any tax increases, even at the peril of the nation.
How this tableau will eventually play out is somewhat predictable. It will be taken out to the last possible moment, and quite possibly beyond. Word is that the legislators have until mid-February to actually come to their senses and a deal if the United States is to avoid an utterly avoidable recession, caused entirely by public policy.
This play has certainly caught Wall Street's attention, as evidenced by the sharp declines over the past month and especially since the election, just over a week ago.
What some market participants fail to realize - or won't say publicly - is that the market may well have already run out of gas, almost all of it supplied by the magnanimous Federal Reserve, whose QE policies have injected trillions into the hands of the banking cartel.
The Dow and S&P made double tops in mid-September and early October, then failed to surpass those highs later in the month, a classic chart pattern signaling a primary trend change and a bearish one, similar to the breakdown in the fall of 2007.
As for the NASDAQ, it didn't even bother to retrace the highs of September, simply capitulating in October and continuing a cascading fall, closing in quickly on the June lows.
If this is the beginning of a bear market, the foolery in Washington will be nothing more than a sideshow. The economy - both here and globally - is in a weakened condition already and may not be able to sustain even a medium shock, much less one that raises taxes and trims budgets, reducing head-count, and thus, overall spending.
Add to that the double-dip recession now official in the Eurozone and growing tensions in the Middle East and the recipe for disaster is laid bare.
Wall Street and its brokerage houses should emblazon their entrances with a warning sign: Beware Falling Stocks.
Today's minor decline could be seen as somewhat remarkable in the face of some disturbing economic events. Initial unemployment claims rose dramatically, from 361K to 439K this week, due partly to the effects of Hurricane Sandy. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey laid an egg as well, posting a reading of negative 10.7 on expectations of a fat zero.
Besides the internal damage done to markets, all of the major indices are now firmly moored below their 200-day moving averages, not a pretty sight until some catalyst comes along to change the dynamic, and none appears to be on the horizon.
The advance-decline line was still severely negative and new lows exceeded new highs for the sixth day in a row.
All signs point to further weakness, though a technical bounce could send stocks up briefly, but the holiday season, thus far, isn't shaping up to be a very jolly time.
Dow 12,542.38, -28.57 (0.23%)
NASDAQ 2,836.94, -9.87 (0.35%)
S&P 500 1,353.32, -2.17 (0.16%)
NYSE Composite 7,896.87, -6.56 (0.08%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,975,168,625
NYSE Volume 3,892,497,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1954-3591
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 25-456 (this is extreme!)
WTI crude oil: 85.45, -0.87
Gold: 1,713.80, -16.30
Silver: 32.67, -0.206
Whether or not these so-called "bargains" will turn into winners is anybody's guess, though the real experts in market dynamics see more trouble ahead as Washington tries to come to a deal before January 1 of 2013, when mandatory spending cuts and tax increases are set to take place.
Placing one's hope - and one's money - on politicians in Washington actually accomplishing anything of such importance is akin to betting on a cheap claimer in a stakes race: the odds are very much against it.
As was the case with the battle over raising the debt limit last August, the DC crowd has shown no willingness to compromise on much of anything and the "fiscal cliff" issue is right up drama alley for our clownish elected leaders.
Eventually, the adult in the room seems to be the president, Barack Obama, who must navigate the press and the pressure of dealing with an intractable house of representatives, whose sole mission seems to be to spare the wealthiest two percent of earners any tax increases, even at the peril of the nation.
How this tableau will eventually play out is somewhat predictable. It will be taken out to the last possible moment, and quite possibly beyond. Word is that the legislators have until mid-February to actually come to their senses and a deal if the United States is to avoid an utterly avoidable recession, caused entirely by public policy.
This play has certainly caught Wall Street's attention, as evidenced by the sharp declines over the past month and especially since the election, just over a week ago.
What some market participants fail to realize - or won't say publicly - is that the market may well have already run out of gas, almost all of it supplied by the magnanimous Federal Reserve, whose QE policies have injected trillions into the hands of the banking cartel.
The Dow and S&P made double tops in mid-September and early October, then failed to surpass those highs later in the month, a classic chart pattern signaling a primary trend change and a bearish one, similar to the breakdown in the fall of 2007.
As for the NASDAQ, it didn't even bother to retrace the highs of September, simply capitulating in October and continuing a cascading fall, closing in quickly on the June lows.
If this is the beginning of a bear market, the foolery in Washington will be nothing more than a sideshow. The economy - both here and globally - is in a weakened condition already and may not be able to sustain even a medium shock, much less one that raises taxes and trims budgets, reducing head-count, and thus, overall spending.
Add to that the double-dip recession now official in the Eurozone and growing tensions in the Middle East and the recipe for disaster is laid bare.
Wall Street and its brokerage houses should emblazon their entrances with a warning sign: Beware Falling Stocks.
Today's minor decline could be seen as somewhat remarkable in the face of some disturbing economic events. Initial unemployment claims rose dramatically, from 361K to 439K this week, due partly to the effects of Hurricane Sandy. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey laid an egg as well, posting a reading of negative 10.7 on expectations of a fat zero.
Besides the internal damage done to markets, all of the major indices are now firmly moored below their 200-day moving averages, not a pretty sight until some catalyst comes along to change the dynamic, and none appears to be on the horizon.
The advance-decline line was still severely negative and new lows exceeded new highs for the sixth day in a row.
All signs point to further weakness, though a technical bounce could send stocks up briefly, but the holiday season, thus far, isn't shaping up to be a very jolly time.
Dow 12,542.38, -28.57 (0.23%)
NASDAQ 2,836.94, -9.87 (0.35%)
S&P 500 1,353.32, -2.17 (0.16%)
NYSE Composite 7,896.87, -6.56 (0.08%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,975,168,625
NYSE Volume 3,892,497,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1954-3591
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 25-456 (this is extreme!)
WTI crude oil: 85.45, -0.87
Gold: 1,713.80, -16.30
Silver: 32.67, -0.206
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