Stocks took a bit of a punch in the face on Tuesday, but nothing a good night's sleep wouldn't relieve.
Overnight, Iran fired missiles at a couple of American bases in Iraq, hit mostly sand and neither killed nor wounded any American soldiers, according to published reports. If that's the extent of Iranian retaliation for the killing of their top general, it would suggest that Iran's leaders are not stupid and don't want to go to war against the world's most well-equipped military force.
Nobody can blame Iran for not wanting a direct fight with the US military. It would more than likely be a losing battle from the start and end with devastation to much of Iran's infrastructure. Their leaders may have taken the high road by intentionally missing American barracks, showing a calm hand while demonstrating that they can, if need be, meet force with force.
Iran is better equipped to keep doing what they've been doing: supporting splinter groups and terrorist cells without direct involvement in any conflict. In that scenario, they at least afford themselves the opportunity to keep selling their oil to countries who won't respect the US trade sanctions and maybe find their way to a negotiating table to end years of struggle in the region.
Wall Street would likely be amenable to such an arrangement. Some sense of rationality would be a welcome relief to not just the oil market but to the global economies, which have more than their share of worries presently.
If it is indeed the case that hostilities in the Middle East may have reached a turning point, that's all well and good. Any continued sign that the US and Iran are at a safe distance from each other militarily can only be good for the stock market. Such an antecedent would prompt a sharp rally in stocks, which have been somewhat on hold since Christmas and are looking for reasons to break out to new highs.
It being a fresh year, there's plenty of money sloshing around, enough to propel stocks further into the stratosphere.
Unless something terrible happens in the Middle East or elsewhere, expect markets to glide higher and potentially explode though the remaining weeks of January. As everybody in the investment world knows, as January goes, so goes the rest of the year. That's been an accurate guide for about 85% of the time. Another banner year like 2019 may not be in the cards, but it's a near certainty that stocks are poised for another leg higher and continued strong performance.
At the Close, Tuesday, January 7, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 28,583.68, -119.70 (-0.42%)
NASDAQ: 9,068.58, -2.88 (-0.03%)
S&P 500: 3,237.18, -9.10 (-0.28%)
NYSE Composite: 13,898.45, -43.35 (-0.31%)
Showing posts with label Middle East. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Middle East. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 8, 2020
Tuesday, January 7, 2020
War Is Good For the Market, So Is Peace, Or Baseball, Or Beer, Or...
Fearing that a possible escalation of hostilities in the Middle East could spill over to affect the US economy, stocks opened sharply lower on Monday. Gold, silver and crude oil futures were bid higher.
As the day wore on, stocks regained their footings, the precious metal and oil rallies evaporated and eventually all the US indices closed well into positive territory.
None of that was by accident.
Consider the stock market a proxy narrative for the American impulse emotions. Fear, greed, tranquility, volatility, are all rolled into one great tableau of the American experience, especially when there's trouble on the horizon. Monday's action consisted of mandatory panicked selling as the day began, the hand of calm mid-morning, and eventually the all-clear sign that nothing bad will happen, in a "we got this" kind of virtue-signal, sending stocks higher, where they're supposed to be going in our vast and glorious economy.
It all happens without public comment nor input because large shareholders control enormous amounts of stock and with that, the ability to move markets in whichever non-random ways they desire. A tweak to an algo here, a few well-timed block trades there, and entire averages can move in not-so-mysterious ways.
Especially since the disasters of the 2000 dot-com bust and the 2007-09 sub-prime implosion, there's been a vested interest in this country to keep the charts moving in a left to right, upward=headed, diagonal line.
That's not an accident, either.
Because there is so much wealth and so much of the future concentrated almost exclusively in stocks, the markets cannot be allowed to wither. We've witnessed this same happenstance over and over and over again, on a daily basis in times of crisis, and with a more elongated time expanse when it comes to policy issues like the direction of interest rates, presidential politics, tax cuts, or long-range unemployment trends.
If the US kills an Iranian general and some other people who happen to be in the wrong place at the right time, stocks may take a temporary hit. The Dow may drop 100 or 200 points, but it will be back on its game by the afternoon, or maybe within the next day or two.
If the US sends 200,000 troops to Iraq or Iran to squelch - once and for all - an evil regime, stocks may initially descend, but in the long term, they will outperform the underlying economy. See charts from 2003-2005 for example, of how the Gulf War boosted stocks out of a deep hole.
While it doesn't have to be this way, that's just the way it is, and the sooner one comes to the rationalization that the markets are handled, mangled, and managed, the sooner one can come to grips with the deficiencies in one's own portfolio.
Whether this is good or not is a debatable point, but what is not a subject ripe for speculation is the fact that holders of large amounts of underlying securities can make markets move in whatever direction they please. And for now, that direction - make no mistake about this - is up.
At the Close, Monday, January 6, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 28,703.38, +68.50 (+0.24%)
NASDAQ: 9,071.46, +50.70 (+0.56%)
S&P 500: 3,246.28, +11.43 (+0.35%)
NYSE Composite: 13,941.80, +24.75 (+0.18%)
As the day wore on, stocks regained their footings, the precious metal and oil rallies evaporated and eventually all the US indices closed well into positive territory.
None of that was by accident.
Consider the stock market a proxy narrative for the American impulse emotions. Fear, greed, tranquility, volatility, are all rolled into one great tableau of the American experience, especially when there's trouble on the horizon. Monday's action consisted of mandatory panicked selling as the day began, the hand of calm mid-morning, and eventually the all-clear sign that nothing bad will happen, in a "we got this" kind of virtue-signal, sending stocks higher, where they're supposed to be going in our vast and glorious economy.
It all happens without public comment nor input because large shareholders control enormous amounts of stock and with that, the ability to move markets in whichever non-random ways they desire. A tweak to an algo here, a few well-timed block trades there, and entire averages can move in not-so-mysterious ways.
Especially since the disasters of the 2000 dot-com bust and the 2007-09 sub-prime implosion, there's been a vested interest in this country to keep the charts moving in a left to right, upward=headed, diagonal line.
That's not an accident, either.
Because there is so much wealth and so much of the future concentrated almost exclusively in stocks, the markets cannot be allowed to wither. We've witnessed this same happenstance over and over and over again, on a daily basis in times of crisis, and with a more elongated time expanse when it comes to policy issues like the direction of interest rates, presidential politics, tax cuts, or long-range unemployment trends.
If the US kills an Iranian general and some other people who happen to be in the wrong place at the right time, stocks may take a temporary hit. The Dow may drop 100 or 200 points, but it will be back on its game by the afternoon, or maybe within the next day or two.
If the US sends 200,000 troops to Iraq or Iran to squelch - once and for all - an evil regime, stocks may initially descend, but in the long term, they will outperform the underlying economy. See charts from 2003-2005 for example, of how the Gulf War boosted stocks out of a deep hole.
While it doesn't have to be this way, that's just the way it is, and the sooner one comes to the rationalization that the markets are handled, mangled, and managed, the sooner one can come to grips with the deficiencies in one's own portfolio.
Whether this is good or not is a debatable point, but what is not a subject ripe for speculation is the fact that holders of large amounts of underlying securities can make markets move in whatever direction they please. And for now, that direction - make no mistake about this - is up.
At the Close, Monday, January 6, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 28,703.38, +68.50 (+0.24%)
NASDAQ: 9,071.46, +50.70 (+0.56%)
S&P 500: 3,246.28, +11.43 (+0.35%)
NYSE Composite: 13,941.80, +24.75 (+0.18%)
Thursday, June 8, 2017
Crude Oil Sinks on Continuing Glut, Slack Demand, Alternatives
While stocks have zigzagged and gone nowhere the first three days of the week, oil has been more consistent in direction, with WTI crude dropping by two dollars a barrel on Wednesday under $46, a nine-month low.
There's been a glut of oil on world markets for some time now, but it's been especially painful to producers since the market riggers lost control in 2015, sending the price from imaginary levels - forced upon the planet by the myth of "peak oil" - around $100 per barrel to where it stands today.
Oil's recent swoon brings up a good question. With all the oil sloshing around and a myriad of factors leading to lessened use of the "fossil fuel," what exactly is fair value for crude?
There are many arguments with which to weigh the answer, whatever that may be, but one element that is undeniable about the current condition, is that producing nations aren't exactly in love with what they're being paid for a barrel of the slippery stuff. That's because many of the producers - OPEC and Middle East nations, primarily - had budgeted for steady sales around the high-water mark of $100/barrel.
Since that price turned out to be completely unsustainable, these countries have had to adjust their spending and programs, leading to some degree of discontent among their citizens. Americans, who benefitted from fracking and shale drilling, have been the biggest beneficiaries, seeing the price of a gallon of gas fall from an average near four dollars to today's prices in the low two dollar range.
One of the largest factors contributing to the glut is purely demographic. Many established economies - Japan, US, Europe - are aging, and older people simply don't drive as much. Add to that the improvements in fuel economy, plus alternatives such as cars which run on natural gas or electricity and he trend becomes more pronounced.
As the price of crude continues under pressure, alternative fuels, such as increased use of coal, solar, and wind in the United States, will only exacerbate the condition.
Back in the good old days of the 70s and 80s, oil used to be under $20 per barrel. Then along came the "peak oil" sham, which sent the price through the roof and consumers to the poorhouse. The true price may or may not be found in the current regime of futures prices, a system that has and probably continues to be gamed, but the real price, taking into account the massive amounts of oil on and off the market, the stagnation of the global economy, and emerging alternatives, is likely to be found at levels well below what it is pinned at today.
Try thinking of oil at about $32-36 per barrel and gasoline at $1.60 and you're probably on the right track.
At the Close, 6/7/17:
Dow: 21,173.69, +37.46 (0.18%)
NASDAQ 6,297.38, +22.32 (0.36%)
S&P 500 2,433.14, +3.81 (0.16%)
NYSE Composite: 11,667.73, -3.73 (-0.03%)
There's been a glut of oil on world markets for some time now, but it's been especially painful to producers since the market riggers lost control in 2015, sending the price from imaginary levels - forced upon the planet by the myth of "peak oil" - around $100 per barrel to where it stands today.
Oil's recent swoon brings up a good question. With all the oil sloshing around and a myriad of factors leading to lessened use of the "fossil fuel," what exactly is fair value for crude?
There are many arguments with which to weigh the answer, whatever that may be, but one element that is undeniable about the current condition, is that producing nations aren't exactly in love with what they're being paid for a barrel of the slippery stuff. That's because many of the producers - OPEC and Middle East nations, primarily - had budgeted for steady sales around the high-water mark of $100/barrel.
Since that price turned out to be completely unsustainable, these countries have had to adjust their spending and programs, leading to some degree of discontent among their citizens. Americans, who benefitted from fracking and shale drilling, have been the biggest beneficiaries, seeing the price of a gallon of gas fall from an average near four dollars to today's prices in the low two dollar range.
One of the largest factors contributing to the glut is purely demographic. Many established economies - Japan, US, Europe - are aging, and older people simply don't drive as much. Add to that the improvements in fuel economy, plus alternatives such as cars which run on natural gas or electricity and he trend becomes more pronounced.
As the price of crude continues under pressure, alternative fuels, such as increased use of coal, solar, and wind in the United States, will only exacerbate the condition.
Back in the good old days of the 70s and 80s, oil used to be under $20 per barrel. Then along came the "peak oil" sham, which sent the price through the roof and consumers to the poorhouse. The true price may or may not be found in the current regime of futures prices, a system that has and probably continues to be gamed, but the real price, taking into account the massive amounts of oil on and off the market, the stagnation of the global economy, and emerging alternatives, is likely to be found at levels well below what it is pinned at today.
Try thinking of oil at about $32-36 per barrel and gasoline at $1.60 and you're probably on the right track.
At the Close, 6/7/17:
Dow: 21,173.69, +37.46 (0.18%)
NASDAQ 6,297.38, +22.32 (0.36%)
S&P 500 2,433.14, +3.81 (0.16%)
NYSE Composite: 11,667.73, -3.73 (-0.03%)
Wednesday, March 30, 2016
Millenials May Be The Last Free Americans
On this day, a conversation was had with a couple of millennials, roughly in their mid-20s, working (or acting like they were working) in a smoke shop.
The conversation - following them chiding a senior citizen for talking about rolling your own and growing your own tobacco while he was buying rolling papers - was inferior, not even worth mentioning, which is why it is being mentioned.
At issue is the future, and the current youth... or, at least a sizable portion of them, want to vote for Bernie Sanders, who promises a $15/hour minimum wage, free college for everybody, and a host of other liberal-ideological non sequiturs that would essentially turn a once-prosperous free-market country (USA) into another stinking hell-hole like much of Europe, or the Middle East, or perhaps, Japan.
The problem lies not with the millennials. They don't know any better. Most of them haven't been around for more than 25 years, meaning that scads of them were in high school during 9-11, and those images are burnt into their psyches, as too the neo-liberal education they've been given, in which they know little about history, economics, language, culture or just about anything that would promote a thriving, free nation.
No, to blame are largely baby boomers, who foisted upon their youth such undistinguished values as participation trophies, non-judgemental attitudes, video games, addiction to cell phones, social media and other claptrap that promotes laziness, sloth, stupidity, class hatred, and decline.
Between the educational system run from afar in Washington, D.C., the Federal Reserve (also a D.C. inhabitant), and a mainstream media intent on propaganda du jour rather than objective journalism, the millennials may just be the last generation of Americans who can claim any level of freedom.
Americans are being taxed, silenced, tabooed, and numbed into a state of slavish devotion to media and government.
As a nation, America is pretty much doomed unless radical changes in the culture are made, and soon. Traditional values would be a welcome relief, but, whenever they are proposed, millennials scoff and pay, and continue down the path to self-destruction.
Thank you, Janet:
S&P 500: 2,068.46, +13.45 (0.65%)
Dow: 17,748.61, +115.50 (0.66%)
NASDAQ: 4,881.76, +35.14 (0.73%)
Crude Oil 38.38 +0.26% Gold 1,229.00 -0.69% EUR/USD 1.1335 +0.36% 10-Yr Bond 1.83 +0.88% Corn 369.25 -1.01% Copper 2.19 -1.02% Silver 15.25 +0.11% Natural Gas 1.99 +0.66% Russell 2000 1,113.52 +0.40% VIX 13.40 -3.04% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4378 -0.06% USD/JPY 112.4500 -0.22%
The conversation - following them chiding a senior citizen for talking about rolling your own and growing your own tobacco while he was buying rolling papers - was inferior, not even worth mentioning, which is why it is being mentioned.
At issue is the future, and the current youth... or, at least a sizable portion of them, want to vote for Bernie Sanders, who promises a $15/hour minimum wage, free college for everybody, and a host of other liberal-ideological non sequiturs that would essentially turn a once-prosperous free-market country (USA) into another stinking hell-hole like much of Europe, or the Middle East, or perhaps, Japan.
The problem lies not with the millennials. They don't know any better. Most of them haven't been around for more than 25 years, meaning that scads of them were in high school during 9-11, and those images are burnt into their psyches, as too the neo-liberal education they've been given, in which they know little about history, economics, language, culture or just about anything that would promote a thriving, free nation.
No, to blame are largely baby boomers, who foisted upon their youth such undistinguished values as participation trophies, non-judgemental attitudes, video games, addiction to cell phones, social media and other claptrap that promotes laziness, sloth, stupidity, class hatred, and decline.
Between the educational system run from afar in Washington, D.C., the Federal Reserve (also a D.C. inhabitant), and a mainstream media intent on propaganda du jour rather than objective journalism, the millennials may just be the last generation of Americans who can claim any level of freedom.
Americans are being taxed, silenced, tabooed, and numbed into a state of slavish devotion to media and government.
As a nation, America is pretty much doomed unless radical changes in the culture are made, and soon. Traditional values would be a welcome relief, but, whenever they are proposed, millennials scoff and pay, and continue down the path to self-destruction.
Thank you, Janet:
S&P 500: 2,068.46, +13.45 (0.65%)
Dow: 17,748.61, +115.50 (0.66%)
NASDAQ: 4,881.76, +35.14 (0.73%)
Crude Oil 38.38 +0.26% Gold 1,229.00 -0.69% EUR/USD 1.1335 +0.36% 10-Yr Bond 1.83 +0.88% Corn 369.25 -1.01% Copper 2.19 -1.02% Silver 15.25 +0.11% Natural Gas 1.99 +0.66% Russell 2000 1,113.52 +0.40% VIX 13.40 -3.04% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4378 -0.06% USD/JPY 112.4500 -0.22%
Wednesday, September 4, 2013
Drums of War Bring Out the Traders
It didn't take long for Wall Street professionals to get over their fear of war in the Middle East, particularly Syria.
In fact, it took less than one day for the drumbeats of potential warfare to bring out the animal spirits and send stocks soaring.
Unfortunately, volume is still in the "new normal" range of moderate to dismal, and the Dow stopped ominously short of the magic 15,000 mark, a sign that there's still a healthy level of skepticism over the future of American empire.
Today's activity was really nothing of great consequence. Most traders are waiting until Friday's non-farm payroll report before the bell to establish positions or head for the hills. It's a very undecided market presently and that doesn't seem to want to change, especially considering the headwinds of the debt ceiling and Fed tapering on the agenda later in the month.
This little two-day rally did reverse the overall trend, for now, and the major indices are sitting close to key levels of resistance, though the Dow and S&P are still stuck below their 50-day moving averages.
Commodities acted very strangely, with significant losses in oil, gold and silver.
Dow 14,930.87, +96.91 (0.65%)
NASDAQ 3,649.04, +36.43 (1.01%)
S&P 500 1,653.08, +13.31 (0.81%)
NYSE Composite 9,400.20, +66.71 (0.71%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,812,184,125
NYSE Volume 3,516,943,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4510-2082
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 149-57
WTI crude oil: 107.23, -1.31
Gold: 1,390.00, -22.00
Silver: 23.42, -1.014
In fact, it took less than one day for the drumbeats of potential warfare to bring out the animal spirits and send stocks soaring.
Unfortunately, volume is still in the "new normal" range of moderate to dismal, and the Dow stopped ominously short of the magic 15,000 mark, a sign that there's still a healthy level of skepticism over the future of American empire.
Today's activity was really nothing of great consequence. Most traders are waiting until Friday's non-farm payroll report before the bell to establish positions or head for the hills. It's a very undecided market presently and that doesn't seem to want to change, especially considering the headwinds of the debt ceiling and Fed tapering on the agenda later in the month.
This little two-day rally did reverse the overall trend, for now, and the major indices are sitting close to key levels of resistance, though the Dow and S&P are still stuck below their 50-day moving averages.
Commodities acted very strangely, with significant losses in oil, gold and silver.
Dow 14,930.87, +96.91 (0.65%)
NASDAQ 3,649.04, +36.43 (1.01%)
S&P 500 1,653.08, +13.31 (0.81%)
NYSE Composite 9,400.20, +66.71 (0.71%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,812,184,125
NYSE Volume 3,516,943,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4510-2082
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 149-57
WTI crude oil: 107.23, -1.31
Gold: 1,390.00, -22.00
Silver: 23.42, -1.014
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
Stocks Get Pre-Holiday Bounce on Israel-Gaza Truce
Looking as hard as possible for positive news upon which to launch a rally, the Wall Street casino got what it wanted from US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, who brokered a truce in the ongoing warfare between the state of Israel and militants in the Gaza Strip.
Announced just after noon Eastern Time, the truce was to begin at 2:00 pm ET, or roughly 9:00 pm Tel Aviv time.
How long the truce will remain n force is anybody's guess. The conflict in the Palestinian area of the Middle East has been going on for as long as most of us can remember, so whatever is achieved will be short-term at best, just like almost everything else these days, a matter of how far down a given road one can kick a can.
Outside the news that Palestinians and Israelis won't be trying to kill each other overtly for a few days, there was little going on to make investors optimistic.
Hostess, which had been in bankruptcy and was the recent victim of an ill-advised strike by the baker's union, went through a day of mediation and returned to court, where the judge signed off on liquidation of the company that used to make Ho-Hos, Twinkies, Ding-Dongs and assorted junk foods that have contributed in no small way to the epidemic of diabetes in this country.
Probably, it's for the good of the country - and fata$$es worldwide - that the company goes under.
Looking ahead, there's a half-day session on Friday, following the Thanksgiving holiday, which usually results in an eventually meaningless Black Friday rally as millions of misguided Americans crowd stores, malls and shopping centers to buy worthless trinkets and electronic gadgets for friends and relatives.
Too bad Christmas will never get here, as the world is scheduled to end on December 22, according to the Incas, or Aztecs, or somebody.
Well, nobody likes a Scrooge at this time of year, so...
Free iPads and Houses for Everybody! And free Twinkies, too!
Happy Thanksgiving. Stay hungry, my friends.
Dow 12,836.89, +48.38 (0.38%)
Nasdaq 2,926.55, +9.87 (0.34%)
S&P 500 1,391.03, +3.22 (0.23%)
NYSE Composite 8,112.20, +25.78 (0.32%)
NYSE Volume 2,647,812,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,406,020,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3577-1856
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 108-71
WTI crude oil: 87.38, +0.63
Gold: 1,728.20, +4.60
Silver: 33.35, +0.42
Announced just after noon Eastern Time, the truce was to begin at 2:00 pm ET, or roughly 9:00 pm Tel Aviv time.
How long the truce will remain n force is anybody's guess. The conflict in the Palestinian area of the Middle East has been going on for as long as most of us can remember, so whatever is achieved will be short-term at best, just like almost everything else these days, a matter of how far down a given road one can kick a can.
Outside the news that Palestinians and Israelis won't be trying to kill each other overtly for a few days, there was little going on to make investors optimistic.
Hostess, which had been in bankruptcy and was the recent victim of an ill-advised strike by the baker's union, went through a day of mediation and returned to court, where the judge signed off on liquidation of the company that used to make Ho-Hos, Twinkies, Ding-Dongs and assorted junk foods that have contributed in no small way to the epidemic of diabetes in this country.
Probably, it's for the good of the country - and fata$$es worldwide - that the company goes under.
Looking ahead, there's a half-day session on Friday, following the Thanksgiving holiday, which usually results in an eventually meaningless Black Friday rally as millions of misguided Americans crowd stores, malls and shopping centers to buy worthless trinkets and electronic gadgets for friends and relatives.
Too bad Christmas will never get here, as the world is scheduled to end on December 22, according to the Incas, or Aztecs, or somebody.
Well, nobody likes a Scrooge at this time of year, so...
Free iPads and Houses for Everybody! And free Twinkies, too!
Happy Thanksgiving. Stay hungry, my friends.
Dow 12,836.89, +48.38 (0.38%)
Nasdaq 2,926.55, +9.87 (0.34%)
S&P 500 1,391.03, +3.22 (0.23%)
NYSE Composite 8,112.20, +25.78 (0.32%)
NYSE Volume 2,647,812,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,406,020,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3577-1856
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 108-71
WTI crude oil: 87.38, +0.63
Gold: 1,728.20, +4.60
Silver: 33.35, +0.42
Tuesday, April 5, 2011
Markets Struggle Through Late-Session Sell-Off; Metals Soar
Disappointed that government leaders met and failed to reach agreement on a compromise plan that would keep the government from shutting down later this week, investors mostly headed for the hills late in the day.
With the North Africa, Middle East and Japan worries already weighing on the markets, the idea that the federal government would shut down at the end of the week seemed to be the last straw. President Obama met with House Republican leader John Boehner and Senate majority leader Harry Reid, but failed to reach any meaningful understanding on the proposed spending bill making its way through congress.
The politicians are squabbling over whether to cut anywhere from $35 to $61 billion dollars from the remaining 2011 budget, with the fiscal year ending in September. It's all become just bad theater, with both parties' leaders posturing and waving their arms about like crazed lunatics. In the end, the cuts will matter little, since the money will be re-appropriated in the next or an upcoming session and all of it is borrowed anyway.
Besides the amounts differing by so little, the amount of "cuts" is laughable, at well less than 1% of total federal outlays, which totaled more than $4 trillion in the 2010-11 budget.
Still, investors worry that the money spigot from Washington may be cut off in some unfathomable way that could affect them, though prospects for anything changing very much - even in the case of a shutdown - are slim.
Another worry is that the government exceeds the debt ceiling, which some contend has already been breached, so that the government would not have funds available to service their debt, sending interest rates soaring and confidence - what little of that is left - in the United States plummeting.
As such, stocks retreated in unison in the afternoon after racking up decent morning gains, the major indices finishing in split fashion.
Dow 12,393.90, -6.13 (0.05%)
NASDAQ 2,791.19, +2.00 (0.07%)
S&P 500 1,332.63, -0.24 (0.02%)
NYSE Composite 8,488.39, +5.98 (0.07%)
Gainers beat losers by a narrow margin, 3456-3000. On the NASDAQ, there were 203 new highs and 34 new lows, while the NYSE saw 284 stocks reach new highs and only 14 make new lows. Volume was materially better than Monday's dreadfully slow session.
NASDAQ Volume 1,967,010,125
NYSE Volume 4,186,267,250
The real story of the day came from the commodity pits. While WTI Crude futures slipped slightly, down 13 cents, to $108.34, gold powered ahead $19.50, to a new, all-time closing high of $1,452.50. Silver was also on the buying list, adding 69 cents, to $39.18, the highest price since 1980.
What the gold and silver physical markets (if you're in an EFT, you'll likely never actually see or touch the silver or gold your shares represent) are telling us is that the level of fear and distrust has risen to feverish levels. Beyond $4/gallon gas and a nuclear holocaust in Japan, the threat of a major credit and/or liquidity crisis has once again reared its ugly head, this time in the threatened shutdown of the US federal government.
Whether the politicians are merely toying with the emotions of the American people or serious about failing to resolve their budgetary differences, the world is watching and most don't like what they see.
Expect more turbulence in days to come unless the government situation is resolved prudently and in all due haste. MAybe then somebody can take a look at those Japanese reactors which threaten to kill everybody with radioactive isotopes unless a solution is found, like entombment.
With the North Africa, Middle East and Japan worries already weighing on the markets, the idea that the federal government would shut down at the end of the week seemed to be the last straw. President Obama met with House Republican leader John Boehner and Senate majority leader Harry Reid, but failed to reach any meaningful understanding on the proposed spending bill making its way through congress.
The politicians are squabbling over whether to cut anywhere from $35 to $61 billion dollars from the remaining 2011 budget, with the fiscal year ending in September. It's all become just bad theater, with both parties' leaders posturing and waving their arms about like crazed lunatics. In the end, the cuts will matter little, since the money will be re-appropriated in the next or an upcoming session and all of it is borrowed anyway.
Besides the amounts differing by so little, the amount of "cuts" is laughable, at well less than 1% of total federal outlays, which totaled more than $4 trillion in the 2010-11 budget.
Still, investors worry that the money spigot from Washington may be cut off in some unfathomable way that could affect them, though prospects for anything changing very much - even in the case of a shutdown - are slim.
Another worry is that the government exceeds the debt ceiling, which some contend has already been breached, so that the government would not have funds available to service their debt, sending interest rates soaring and confidence - what little of that is left - in the United States plummeting.
As such, stocks retreated in unison in the afternoon after racking up decent morning gains, the major indices finishing in split fashion.
Dow 12,393.90, -6.13 (0.05%)
NASDAQ 2,791.19, +2.00 (0.07%)
S&P 500 1,332.63, -0.24 (0.02%)
NYSE Composite 8,488.39, +5.98 (0.07%)
Gainers beat losers by a narrow margin, 3456-3000. On the NASDAQ, there were 203 new highs and 34 new lows, while the NYSE saw 284 stocks reach new highs and only 14 make new lows. Volume was materially better than Monday's dreadfully slow session.
NASDAQ Volume 1,967,010,125
NYSE Volume 4,186,267,250
The real story of the day came from the commodity pits. While WTI Crude futures slipped slightly, down 13 cents, to $108.34, gold powered ahead $19.50, to a new, all-time closing high of $1,452.50. Silver was also on the buying list, adding 69 cents, to $39.18, the highest price since 1980.
What the gold and silver physical markets (if you're in an EFT, you'll likely never actually see or touch the silver or gold your shares represent) are telling us is that the level of fear and distrust has risen to feverish levels. Beyond $4/gallon gas and a nuclear holocaust in Japan, the threat of a major credit and/or liquidity crisis has once again reared its ugly head, this time in the threatened shutdown of the US federal government.
Whether the politicians are merely toying with the emotions of the American people or serious about failing to resolve their budgetary differences, the world is watching and most don't like what they see.
Expect more turbulence in days to come unless the government situation is resolved prudently and in all due haste. MAybe then somebody can take a look at those Japanese reactors which threaten to kill everybody with radioactive isotopes unless a solution is found, like entombment.
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
Now, That IS Going to Leave a Mark
Investors take note. You are screwed.
Savers and buyers of precious metals, arable land, tools and staples, rejoice! Today our frugality, honesty and disdain for speculation has reaped significant dividends.
On Wall Street, billions of dollars were flushed in a panicked selling frenzy that appears to be just beginning. One should note that other major declines began in the Winter months, specifically, the bursting of the dot-com bubble which reached its peak on March 10, 2000, when the NASDAQ topped out at 5132.52. Within months, the high-flying tech-laden index was off by more than 25%. Within a year, it had been halved.
While this current one-day selling spree may not auger as much ill (though it could be even worse), it was the largest one-day decline on the markets since August of 2010 and unless Mr. Gadaffi (God only knows how to spell his name) changes his mind about dying a martyr on Libyan soil (remember Mubarak said something similar just weeks ago), this malaise coming from Norther Africa and the Middle East is going to hang over equity markets and oil prices for the foreseeable future.
In addition to the popular uprisings in Libya and across the oil-rich nations of the Middle East - and much less reported - was the release of the S&P/Case-Shiller housing survey (full report [PDF] here), which showed home prices declining for a 4th straight month. Essentially, the housing crisis is not over, despite the artificial stimulus of a federal tax credit to the tune of $9000 for home buyers in various parts of 2009 and 2010.
Those buyers were duped into buying overpriced houses, lured by our federal government. There will be years of pain and more defaults to come, for certain. Las Vegas, Miami, Phoenix and Tampa all reached new lows in median prices. Other areas of the country were similarly down, with 18 of 20 major city areas posting declines. Released at 9:00 am, the report put a further chill into an already freezing futures market.
Stocks gaped down, with the Dow off 120 points minutes into the session, and it didn't get any better the remainder of the day.
Dow 12,212.79, -178.46 (1.44%)
NASDAQ 2,756.42, -77.53 (2.74%)
S&P 500 1,315.44, -27.57 (2.05%)
NYSE Composite 8,325.86, -182.04 (2.14%)
Declining issues slaughtered advancing issues, 5707-975, a ratio of nearly 6:1. The measure of new highs to new lows nearly reversed course, with 85 new highs on the NASDAQ, to 39 new lows. The Big Board remained skewed, with 139 new highs to just 14 new lows. Obviously, with such a paltry number of new lows, there is plenty of froth to be blown off this overheated, artificially-stimulated market. Volume was significantly higher than most recent up-day sessions, a notable development.
NASDAQ Volume 2,272,504,500
NYSE Volume 6,243,551,500
Commodities were raging. Crude oil futures on the NYMEX closed at $95.42, officially $5.41 higher, though it should be pointed out that Friday's close was just a shade over $86.
Gold finished at $1,401.10 and silver at $32.86, both having ramped up on Monday, when markets were closed, though trading volumes were very high.
The handwriting is quite clear. Investors are nervous over developments outside the US, and also inside, as the congress weighs passing a temporary, two-week continuing resolution, raising the debt ceiling only a little, and revisiting the issue again in a fortnight. This is the leadership we are offered, which can't get beyond partisan bickering to actually tackle the fundamental problems in the US economy.
Meanwhile, the stalemate continues in Wisconsin, with other states looking squarely at similar budgetary conditions and issues. 38 states have budget shortfalls which need to be addressed and the rhetoric surrounding the differences between public sector employees and those who pay their wages and benefits, the taxpayers.
If, like many, you've been aghast over the continual money-pumping by the Federal Reserve and the antecedent rise in stocks, you may want to pull up a chair and pay attention the next few weeks and months.
It's just starting to get interesting as the grand global Ponzi scheme by central bankers worldwide begins to unravel at a rapid pace.
Savers and buyers of precious metals, arable land, tools and staples, rejoice! Today our frugality, honesty and disdain for speculation has reaped significant dividends.
On Wall Street, billions of dollars were flushed in a panicked selling frenzy that appears to be just beginning. One should note that other major declines began in the Winter months, specifically, the bursting of the dot-com bubble which reached its peak on March 10, 2000, when the NASDAQ topped out at 5132.52. Within months, the high-flying tech-laden index was off by more than 25%. Within a year, it had been halved.
While this current one-day selling spree may not auger as much ill (though it could be even worse), it was the largest one-day decline on the markets since August of 2010 and unless Mr. Gadaffi (God only knows how to spell his name) changes his mind about dying a martyr on Libyan soil (remember Mubarak said something similar just weeks ago), this malaise coming from Norther Africa and the Middle East is going to hang over equity markets and oil prices for the foreseeable future.
In addition to the popular uprisings in Libya and across the oil-rich nations of the Middle East - and much less reported - was the release of the S&P/Case-Shiller housing survey (full report [PDF] here), which showed home prices declining for a 4th straight month. Essentially, the housing crisis is not over, despite the artificial stimulus of a federal tax credit to the tune of $9000 for home buyers in various parts of 2009 and 2010.
Those buyers were duped into buying overpriced houses, lured by our federal government. There will be years of pain and more defaults to come, for certain. Las Vegas, Miami, Phoenix and Tampa all reached new lows in median prices. Other areas of the country were similarly down, with 18 of 20 major city areas posting declines. Released at 9:00 am, the report put a further chill into an already freezing futures market.
Stocks gaped down, with the Dow off 120 points minutes into the session, and it didn't get any better the remainder of the day.
Dow 12,212.79, -178.46 (1.44%)
NASDAQ 2,756.42, -77.53 (2.74%)
S&P 500 1,315.44, -27.57 (2.05%)
NYSE Composite 8,325.86, -182.04 (2.14%)
Declining issues slaughtered advancing issues, 5707-975, a ratio of nearly 6:1. The measure of new highs to new lows nearly reversed course, with 85 new highs on the NASDAQ, to 39 new lows. The Big Board remained skewed, with 139 new highs to just 14 new lows. Obviously, with such a paltry number of new lows, there is plenty of froth to be blown off this overheated, artificially-stimulated market. Volume was significantly higher than most recent up-day sessions, a notable development.
NASDAQ Volume 2,272,504,500
NYSE Volume 6,243,551,500
Commodities were raging. Crude oil futures on the NYMEX closed at $95.42, officially $5.41 higher, though it should be pointed out that Friday's close was just a shade over $86.
Gold finished at $1,401.10 and silver at $32.86, both having ramped up on Monday, when markets were closed, though trading volumes were very high.
The handwriting is quite clear. Investors are nervous over developments outside the US, and also inside, as the congress weighs passing a temporary, two-week continuing resolution, raising the debt ceiling only a little, and revisiting the issue again in a fortnight. This is the leadership we are offered, which can't get beyond partisan bickering to actually tackle the fundamental problems in the US economy.
Meanwhile, the stalemate continues in Wisconsin, with other states looking squarely at similar budgetary conditions and issues. 38 states have budget shortfalls which need to be addressed and the rhetoric surrounding the differences between public sector employees and those who pay their wages and benefits, the taxpayers.
If, like many, you've been aghast over the continual money-pumping by the Federal Reserve and the antecedent rise in stocks, you may want to pull up a chair and pay attention the next few weeks and months.
It's just starting to get interesting as the grand global Ponzi scheme by central bankers worldwide begins to unravel at a rapid pace.
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