Cliff? What cliff?
G
.O
..O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...A
...L!!!!!!!!!!
Oh, that one.
Empire Manufacturing (Dec.) Actual: -8.1; Forecast: 2.0.
Who needs reasons?
Dow 13,235.39, +100.38(0.76%)
NASDAQ 3,010.60, +39.27(1.32%)
S&P 500 1,430.36, +16.78(1.19%)
NYSE Composite 8,407.02, +73.29(0.88%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,873,997,750.00
NYSE Volume 3,415,913,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3776-1782
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 132-61
WTI crude oil: 87.20, +0.47
Gold: 1,698.20, +1.20
Silver: 32.28, -0.019
Monday, December 17, 2012
Friday, December 14, 2012
Up, Down? How About Sideways Equilibrium?
A relatively favorable set of numbers weere released today as Industrial Production for November rose at the robust rate of 1.1% after falling 0.7% in October (revised from -0.4) and Capacity Utilization shot up to a healthy 78.4% (October 77.7%), but what may have spooked markets was the fall in CPI of 0.3%, a deflationary indicator, which is the bogey man that central bankers and governments worldwide like awake at night fearing.
Deflation implies stagnation and decline, anathema for the "growth" economies, though in nature, it's a natural part of the cycle. And that is part - though not all - of the reason that economies (especially ones built on a fiat foundation) are all built to fail. They are unnatural creations and they eventually cannot compete with natural cycles, physics and math.
So, stocks fell today, despite some good news. On the other hand, the "lawmakers" (an obtuse term presently, as the congress-critter and the president haven't done much in the way of actual writing of legislation for about a year and a half) in Washington aren't actually there at the moment, many having already headed home to their respective districts, the regular house session actually having ended yesterday, though it is scheduled to resume on December 19 (five-day weekends... must be nice). Consequently, there was no business concerning the ongoing "fiscal cliff" negotiations.
Stocks have reached a level resembling a sort of equilibrium (just look at the A-D line or new highs-new lows), which is a nice way of saying that it's a bad time to be either a bull or a bear, because nothing's moving, though one might expect some fireworks as the year draws to a close and it becomes more and more apparent that whatever fix is applied to the nation's fiscal woes - if any - it will be a patchwork, quick-fix and probably insufficient.
Nothing could happen, though, with two straight losing sessions, the direction of the market could have subtly changed.
The markets should react, but they don't have to. What happens over the next two weeks is anybody's guess. There are just nine full trading days until year's end. The exchanges are closed on the 25th and the 24th is a half-session, closing at 1:00 pm ET.
Something's got to give, or maybe not. After all, we've been muddling through for four years and most of the sleep-walking sheeple haven't a clue what's going on and the people in charge don't seem to care, and that's not a new phenomenon.
Well, it's Friday, and it's Happy Hour somewhere.
Free houses (and $billion a month from the Fed) for everyone!
Dow 13,135.01, -35.71 (0.27%)
NASDAQ 2,971.33, -20.83 (0.70%)
S&P 500 1,413.58, -5.87 (0.41%)
NYSE Composite 8,333.74, -4.58 (0.05%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,806,388,500
NYSE Volume 3,177,329,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2627-2840
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 88-64
WTI crude oil: 86.73, +0.84
Gold: 1,697.00, +0.20
Silver: 32.30, -0.056
Deflation implies stagnation and decline, anathema for the "growth" economies, though in nature, it's a natural part of the cycle. And that is part - though not all - of the reason that economies (especially ones built on a fiat foundation) are all built to fail. They are unnatural creations and they eventually cannot compete with natural cycles, physics and math.
So, stocks fell today, despite some good news. On the other hand, the "lawmakers" (an obtuse term presently, as the congress-critter and the president haven't done much in the way of actual writing of legislation for about a year and a half) in Washington aren't actually there at the moment, many having already headed home to their respective districts, the regular house session actually having ended yesterday, though it is scheduled to resume on December 19 (five-day weekends... must be nice). Consequently, there was no business concerning the ongoing "fiscal cliff" negotiations.
Stocks have reached a level resembling a sort of equilibrium (just look at the A-D line or new highs-new lows), which is a nice way of saying that it's a bad time to be either a bull or a bear, because nothing's moving, though one might expect some fireworks as the year draws to a close and it becomes more and more apparent that whatever fix is applied to the nation's fiscal woes - if any - it will be a patchwork, quick-fix and probably insufficient.
Nothing could happen, though, with two straight losing sessions, the direction of the market could have subtly changed.
The markets should react, but they don't have to. What happens over the next two weeks is anybody's guess. There are just nine full trading days until year's end. The exchanges are closed on the 25th and the 24th is a half-session, closing at 1:00 pm ET.
Something's got to give, or maybe not. After all, we've been muddling through for four years and most of the sleep-walking sheeple haven't a clue what's going on and the people in charge don't seem to care, and that's not a new phenomenon.
Well, it's Friday, and it's Happy Hour somewhere.
Free houses (and $billion a month from the Fed) for everyone!
Dow 13,135.01, -35.71 (0.27%)
NASDAQ 2,971.33, -20.83 (0.70%)
S&P 500 1,413.58, -5.87 (0.41%)
NYSE Composite 8,333.74, -4.58 (0.05%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,806,388,500
NYSE Volume 3,177,329,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2627-2840
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 88-64
WTI crude oil: 86.73, +0.84
Gold: 1,697.00, +0.20
Silver: 32.30, -0.056
Thursday, December 13, 2012
Stocks Slide on Fiscal Cliff Stalemate, Fed Confusion
As they've done after the occasion of every recent FOMC meeting, traders sold off on the news, though today's slide was exacerbated at least a little by angst over the ongoing stalemate in Washington over fiscal cliff issues.
John Boehner, Speaker of the House, went before the microphones this morning, followed by Senate leader Harry Reid, and the two of them managed to give Wall Street a dose of temporary depression, sending stocks lower throughout the session.
The major indices slid into the final hour, but rebounded off their lows of the day when news leaked that President Obama and Boehner were to meet at the White House late this afternoon. While it will probably amount to nothing, as have their previous talks, the markets viewed it as slightly positive.
Traders are still mulling over yesterday's FOMC announcement, in which Chairman Bernanke tied raising interest rates to the unemployment rate and inflation. It's something of a crude cobbling of numbers that may or may not make sense, but, in the best counterintuitive spirit, lower unemployment and a recovering economy wiht low inflation (all good) would probably send stocks screeching into the abyss because interest rates would be on the rise.
Whatever the case and however it eventually plays out, it's a scenario unlikely to arrive any time soon, probably not for at least another 12 months, but it still has investors somewhat spooked.
Some good news for the economy came in the form of lower initial unemployment claims dropped to 343K in the most recent reporting period, on expectations of 375K. Retial sales, however, were a little disappointing, up just 0.3% in November, though that was better than the -0.3% from October.
The PPI was downright deflationary, posting a decline of 0.8% in November. Tomorrow's CPI reading will give an indication of price pressure or the lack thereof at the consumer level.
Dow 13,170.72, -74.73 (0.56%)
NASDAQ 2,992.16, -21.65 (0.72%)
S&P 500 1,419.45, -9.03 (0.63%)
NYSE Composite 8,338.62, -42.26 (0.50%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,800,313,250
NYSE Volume 3,299,683,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1847-3671
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 85-58
WTI crude oil: 85.89, -0.88
Gold: 1,696.80, -21.10
Silver: 32.36, -1.427
John Boehner, Speaker of the House, went before the microphones this morning, followed by Senate leader Harry Reid, and the two of them managed to give Wall Street a dose of temporary depression, sending stocks lower throughout the session.
The major indices slid into the final hour, but rebounded off their lows of the day when news leaked that President Obama and Boehner were to meet at the White House late this afternoon. While it will probably amount to nothing, as have their previous talks, the markets viewed it as slightly positive.
Traders are still mulling over yesterday's FOMC announcement, in which Chairman Bernanke tied raising interest rates to the unemployment rate and inflation. It's something of a crude cobbling of numbers that may or may not make sense, but, in the best counterintuitive spirit, lower unemployment and a recovering economy wiht low inflation (all good) would probably send stocks screeching into the abyss because interest rates would be on the rise.
Whatever the case and however it eventually plays out, it's a scenario unlikely to arrive any time soon, probably not for at least another 12 months, but it still has investors somewhat spooked.
Some good news for the economy came in the form of lower initial unemployment claims dropped to 343K in the most recent reporting period, on expectations of 375K. Retial sales, however, were a little disappointing, up just 0.3% in November, though that was better than the -0.3% from October.
The PPI was downright deflationary, posting a decline of 0.8% in November. Tomorrow's CPI reading will give an indication of price pressure or the lack thereof at the consumer level.
Dow 13,170.72, -74.73 (0.56%)
NASDAQ 2,992.16, -21.65 (0.72%)
S&P 500 1,419.45, -9.03 (0.63%)
NYSE Composite 8,338.62, -42.26 (0.50%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,800,313,250
NYSE Volume 3,299,683,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1847-3671
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 85-58
WTI crude oil: 85.89, -0.88
Gold: 1,696.80, -21.10
Silver: 32.36, -1.427
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
Bernanke Drops Unemployment Bomb; Markets Get Cranky
After John Boehner chastised President Obama again from the floor of the House of Representatives in the morning, the markets got what they were so eagerly anticipating and pricing in for the last two weeks: Ben Bernanke's unveiling of QE4, the promise by the Federal Reserve to purchase an additional $45 billion in long-dated treasuries each month, commencing with the wind-down of a similar program known as "Operation Twist."
This new monetizing of government debt is in addition to the fed's commitment to continued purchasing agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month for the foreseeable future, which translates roughly into "forever, or until the fiat monetary system collapses."
What the market didn't expect was the Fed's statement tying interest rates to the unemployment rate. In the FOMC statement issued shortly after noon and prior to Bernanke's 2:00 pm ET press conference, the Fed announced, "the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored."
With inflation fairly tame and trending toward dis-inflation on the retail level, the Fed has finally embarked upon a robotic-like exit strategy, though with existential caveats and various loopholes and escape clauses.
After digesting the news, stocks were initially bought up, but, during the press conference, began to slip, finally ending the day with no gains.
While on the one hand the Fed is keeping the monetary floodgates wide open, they are anticipating economic recovery, though even the most ardent bulls don't see the official unemployment rate (U3) falling below 6.5% for at least another year. It currently stands at 7.7%, though that figure is largely due to the decline in the labor participation rate.
With baby boomers retiring at an estimated rate of 10,000 per day - many taking the offer of smaller benefits at age 62 - the labor market is in a state of generational flux unlike any seen in modern times, so there's literally no telling when unemployment might fall below the Fed's threshold level, if at all.
One thing's for certain: if the economy suddenly finds its legs and springs into a real recovery with job creation and rising GDP, Wall Street will be offended because the free money spigots will be turned off or borrowing costs will be significantly increased.
It's a double-edged sword of competitiveness vs. financial repression being played by Wall Street bankers against the population at large. Higher interest rates would tamp down rampant speculation and reverse the galloping higher market trends. In fact, the mere hint from the Fed that interest rates might rise already has seen some effect.
Withe the final Fed meeting of the year out of the way, all eyes will be on the Speaker and the President as they race against time to find a solution to their wide differences to solving the fiscal mess they've created (with ample assistance from Wall Street and the 2008 crash).
Time is running short on the politicians and Wall Street may not be so easily amused over the next few weeks.
Dow 13,245.45, -2.99 (0.02%)
NASDAQ 3,013.81, -8.49 (0.28%)
S&P 500 1,428.48, +0.64 (0.04%)
NYSE Composite 8,380.88, +14.40 (0.17%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,755,775,625
NYSE Volume 3,678,721,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2467-3083
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 204-45
WTI crude oil: 86.77, +0.98
Gold: 1,717.90, +8.30
Silver: 33.78, +0.765
This new monetizing of government debt is in addition to the fed's commitment to continued purchasing agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month for the foreseeable future, which translates roughly into "forever, or until the fiat monetary system collapses."
What the market didn't expect was the Fed's statement tying interest rates to the unemployment rate. In the FOMC statement issued shortly after noon and prior to Bernanke's 2:00 pm ET press conference, the Fed announced, "the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored."
With inflation fairly tame and trending toward dis-inflation on the retail level, the Fed has finally embarked upon a robotic-like exit strategy, though with existential caveats and various loopholes and escape clauses.
After digesting the news, stocks were initially bought up, but, during the press conference, began to slip, finally ending the day with no gains.
While on the one hand the Fed is keeping the monetary floodgates wide open, they are anticipating economic recovery, though even the most ardent bulls don't see the official unemployment rate (U3) falling below 6.5% for at least another year. It currently stands at 7.7%, though that figure is largely due to the decline in the labor participation rate.
With baby boomers retiring at an estimated rate of 10,000 per day - many taking the offer of smaller benefits at age 62 - the labor market is in a state of generational flux unlike any seen in modern times, so there's literally no telling when unemployment might fall below the Fed's threshold level, if at all.
One thing's for certain: if the economy suddenly finds its legs and springs into a real recovery with job creation and rising GDP, Wall Street will be offended because the free money spigots will be turned off or borrowing costs will be significantly increased.
It's a double-edged sword of competitiveness vs. financial repression being played by Wall Street bankers against the population at large. Higher interest rates would tamp down rampant speculation and reverse the galloping higher market trends. In fact, the mere hint from the Fed that interest rates might rise already has seen some effect.
Withe the final Fed meeting of the year out of the way, all eyes will be on the Speaker and the President as they race against time to find a solution to their wide differences to solving the fiscal mess they've created (with ample assistance from Wall Street and the 2008 crash).
Time is running short on the politicians and Wall Street may not be so easily amused over the next few weeks.
Dow 13,245.45, -2.99 (0.02%)
NASDAQ 3,013.81, -8.49 (0.28%)
S&P 500 1,428.48, +0.64 (0.04%)
NYSE Composite 8,380.88, +14.40 (0.17%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,755,775,625
NYSE Volume 3,678,721,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2467-3083
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 204-45
WTI crude oil: 86.77, +0.98
Gold: 1,717.90, +8.30
Silver: 33.78, +0.765
Tuesday, December 11, 2012
HSBC Pays $1.9 Billion Fine for Money Laundering; Stocks Soar
If there ever was any doubt that our financial and political systems are as crooked as they ever have been, today's news that London-based HSBC agreed to pay a $1.9 billion fine in a deal with the US Justice Department to settle money laundering charges AND NOBODY WAS CHARGED WITH A CRIME, should dispel any remaining doubt.
Wall Street's reaction to the news was a giddy rally, celebrating the idea that banks and corporations can commit any crimes they like and suffer no criminal consequences.
And people think their investments are safe. And the government is working really hard to come to an agreement to avoid sending the economy over the fiscal cliff and raising everybody's taxes.
Think about it.
Dow 13,248.44, +78.56(0.60%)
NASDAQ 3,022.30, +35.34(1.18%)
S&P 500 1,427.84, +9.29(0.65%)
NYSE Composite 8,366.47, +43.79(0.53%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,933,253,500
NYSE Volume 3,650,410.250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3847-1695
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 215-48
WTI crude oil: 85.79, +0.23
Gold: 1,709.60, -4.80
Silver: 33.02, -0.36
Wall Street's reaction to the news was a giddy rally, celebrating the idea that banks and corporations can commit any crimes they like and suffer no criminal consequences.
And people think their investments are safe. And the government is working really hard to come to an agreement to avoid sending the economy over the fiscal cliff and raising everybody's taxes.
Think about it.
Dow 13,248.44, +78.56(0.60%)
NASDAQ 3,022.30, +35.34(1.18%)
S&P 500 1,427.84, +9.29(0.65%)
NYSE Composite 8,366.47, +43.79(0.53%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,933,253,500
NYSE Volume 3,650,410.250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3847-1695
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 215-48
WTI crude oil: 85.79, +0.23
Gold: 1,709.60, -4.80
Silver: 33.02, -0.36
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