Epic Fail: Marissa Mayer, Ron Johnson, Tim Cook and the Cult of Mediocrity

Since writing about the stock market is so damn boring these days - yeah, the Dow closed at another record high today, marginally so, though the S&P and NASDAQ couldn't quite keep up - let's take a look at some of the people who think they are shaping our collective futures.

I'm (yes, shifting to first person singular for a change) speaking here about the wannabe executives who have been boosted by people bigger than themselves - one, in particular, Steve Jobs, was actually bigger than life - and we have a triumvirate of massive failures, waiting to happen, astride some of the biggest corporate structures in America.

Marissa Mayer, the recently-installed CEO of Yahoo! (YHOO), has been catching the most attention of late, first, for her dictum that Yahoo! home-workers must begin to come into the office, and just today, on word that the redoubtable Ms. Mayer is now personally reviewing every potential new hire at the Silicon Valley firm she heads.

What a nice way to tell the HR department to F-- off! Seriously, Yahoo! employs something like 11,000 people, so, can one expect Marissa to personally interview every new employee? There's a solution to this little time-consumption mess she's created for herself, and it's called a hiring freeze. Expect one soon.

On the same matter, Ms. Mayer, is said to be leaning more towards employees who've earned degrees from prestigious universities, rather than on merit (an old-fashioned idea that people who've actually accomplished something are valuable), in order to create the correct "culture."

There's something a little disturbing about Ms. Mayer's approach to business and culture, in a way that's kind of creepy. While she told all the home-workers to make tracks back to the office or leave the employ of Yahoo!, she herself had a nursery installed near her office, so she could keep an eye on her newborn son, a benefit the former home-working-mothers do not enjoy.

Two words for Ms. Mayer: elitist. bitch.

Mayer's main claims to fame include graduating from Stanford and being the 20th employee hired by Google founders, Sergey Brin and Larry Page. Nice placement. Yahoo! stock has risen about 40% since Mayer took over as CEO, but there's little evidence to suggest Mayer has had any positive impact on the company. The site has had some redesign lately, though nothing radically different, and it still suffers from poor infrastructure and an assortment of glitches.

If Yahoo! disappeared from the internet tomorrow, it would not be missed. There are plenty of other websites which do what Yahoo! does, yet better, though, admittedly, with less organization. The internet would surely survive without Yahoo! and there would be a great talent pool of unemployed brainy types seeking more challenging employment in the valley.

Let's talk next about Tim Cook, the immediate successor to the late Steve Jobs, founder of Apple (AAPL), which, at the time of his death, was considered the greatest corporation operating in the world. Just before his death in October, 2011, Jobs, knowing he had only a few months left to live, handed over the reins to his corporate empire to Tim Cook.

Jobs, never to be mistaken as a person with great people skills, groomed Cook in his own ways, though he could certainly have not imparted his genius for inventiveness and style, nor his uncanny business acumen. For the first year under Cook, the stock soared, likely on the impetus that Jobs had left in his wake. A year out, however, Apple stock began to nosedive, and continues to falter. Apple hasn't had any new devices since the iPad Mini, and they're losing share in the smart phone wars to Samsung and other competitors.

Cook, like Mayer, happened to be in the right place at the right time, will surely be well compensated for failure, and will lead Apple back to the depths of despair the company suffered when Jobs was kicked out and replaced by John Skully. The innovation and no-nonsense management style of Jobs is long gone. Other consumer electronics firms are running circles around the once-innovative Apple.

While this is not entirely Cook's fault - one cannot be blamed just for being numb and uninspired - he'll be along for the ride... and the fall.

Third in our review of 21st century anti-heroes is another Apple wunderkind, Ron Johnson, who took over JC Penny (JCP) after being hailed as the grand designer of Apple's wonderfully-simple, yet practical stores.

Again, Johnson's story is more myth than meat. While he was head of the retail division, he also had Jobs inspecting and critically appraising every aspect of his work and also had Mickey Drexler as an advisor. Drexler, formerly of the Gap, Inc. and famously, the inventor of J. Crew, is widely and rightfully regarded as a retail genius.

In November, 2011, Johnson got the job as CEO of JCP off his glowing resume and plenty of hype. Wall Street types were peeing themselves over the thought of a person so gloriously-self-proclaimed-as-revolutionary taking over the reins at the failing mass merchandiser. Initially, the stock got a huge bump, trading as high as 43/share on the promise that Johnson would turn the company around.

The results have been nothing short of horrifying, mostly to holders of JCP stock. The hoped-for turnaround has produced nothing but a string of quarterly losses that have brought the share price down to $15, slicing it by nearly two-thirds from the heady, halcyon days of Johnson's visionary resurrection.

To his credit, Johnson has taken some responsibility, expressing in the most recent quarterly conference call that some of his strategy has not worked out very well. The company is teetering on the brink of bankruptcy, and, if it goes under, will not be missed. Like Yahoo!, there are plenty of competitors in the retail space.

It's a symptom of our misdirected times that Wall Street failures are initially hailed as heroes. They've done little to achieve their notoriety, and, arguably, are learning on the job. They are not genii in their own rights and never will be, only people who are bright followers and poor leaders. It's not their fault that they're doomed to failure, though it is sometimes fun to watch them squirm under the bright glare of public scrutiny.

If only there were a mechanism like the stock market for politicians... but, I'm entering dream-land now.

The moral of this story is that genius cannot be replaced and those chosen to walk in the footpaths of such will be handsomely paid and praised, but that garden path soon becomes adorned mostly with thorns.

The failures these people will beset upon themselves and those around them figure to be of epic proportions, and, in the case of JC Penny and Apple, already have reached what some would consider crisis stage. Companies come and go, but the stupidity of seeking out role models from the rich and connected seems a character flaw that never gets old.

...so, to close out today's chapter of "as the world yearns," this cute little song off the Beatle's Rubber Soul album came to mind. It's relevant on many different levels; recalling so many of the people I used to know but now realize that they too were mere phantoms, apparitions and shadows. This video comes complete with the lyrics, so listen along, read and learn...



Dow 14,450.06, +2.77 (0.02%)
NASDAQ 3,242.32, -10.55 (0.32%)
S&P 500 1,552.48, -3.74 (0.24%)
NYSE Composite 9,059.96, -22.27 (0.25%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,672,772,125
NYSE Volume 3,482,609,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2661-3765
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 387-29
WTI crude oil: 92.54, +0.48
Gold: 1,591.70, +13.70
Silver: 29.17, +0.318

Dow, S&P 500 Gain for Seventh Straight Session; Gold, Silver Compared to Stocks OK

In this liquidity-driven environment, there's almost no risk of downside, and traders have recently taken advantage, boosting the Dow to all-time record highs and the S&P to within 10 points of its best close ever.

In 2013 alone, the Dow is up an astounding 11%, the S&P is higher by 9%. At hose rates of returns, anyone with more than $50,000 in stocks might as well just sit back and watch the money roll in because annual returns would be something on the order of 40-50%.

Nothing lasts forever, however, and there's a 100% certainty that this bull market, now entering its 49th month, will end and a major selloff - of 20-35% - will occur within the next 15 months. Market wisdom puts the long tooth of bull markets at around 63 months, so, by this time next year, the indices offer a very good chance of being lower than they are today. Such is the nature of risk assets, especially in an environment of artificial price supports, low volume, questionable valuations and the lack of a reliable price discovery process.

Granted, stocks - in terms of the Dow Jones and S&P indices - have more than doubled since the '08-09 collapse, but what about gold and silver, the two most widely-held precious metals?

Holders of physical metals have not done too badly, even considering the recent turn of fortune to the downside.

During the latter months of 2008 and the first three months of 2009, according to data from kitco.com, gold could be had for anywhere between $712 and $989 per ounce. Silver traded in a range of $8.80 to $14.39 per ounce during the same time frame.

So, to those who deride stocks over precious metals and ridicule the so-called gold - and silver - bugs, they've gotten it all wrong, as both of the most-popular metals have done exceedingly well, especially silver, which has more than tripled in value form its low point in 2008. Gold, if scaled in on a dollar cost average basis (one of the best ways to buy either stocks or bonds) could easily have produced 100% or better returns during the "financial crisis," which, by the way, is still not finished.

Dow 14,447.29, +50.22 (0.35%)
NASDAQ 3,252.87, +8.50 (0.26%)
S&P 500 1,556.22, +5.04 (0.32%)
NYSE Composite 9,075.76, +21.31 (0.24%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,594,585,125
NYSE Volume 3,091,224,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3384-2006
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 518-27
WTI crude oil: 92.06, +0.11
Gold: 1,578.00, +1.10
Silver: 28.85, -0.095

Boom Times: Stocks Up Every Friday in 2013

Want to know what the easiest trade of 2013 has been?

Simple. Buy any index fund, future or call on Thursday just prior to the market close and sell it for a profit some time on Friday.

Stocks have been up on each and every Friday of 2013, ten in a row, including today's push higher thanks to a BLS non-farm payroll report that showed creation of 236,000 jobs in February and the unemployment rate falling from 7.9 to 7.7%.

Never mind that most of the jobs were part time or that the jump in the unemployment rate was due to a furher deterioration in the labor participation rate, Wall Street took the headline number and ran with it.

As has been said ad nauseum on this and other like-minded blogs, there has probably never been a safer environment in which to invest in stocks. Due to the low level of returns on bonds, equities are the only game in town and one would have to have been one of the worst stock pickers or timers of the last century not to have made money in this unprecedented, elongated bull run.

Besides being in the midst of one of the best market advances of all time, today marks the four-year anniversary of the bottom. On March 9, 2009, stocks bottomed, began to rise and have never looked back.

Whether one agrees with the tactics or not, one has to hand it to the federal reserve and Chairman Bernanke. Through their efforts of quantitative easing, sero interest rate policy and coordination with central banks around the globe, the Fed - with an assist from the Treasury Department - averted what could have been one of the most devastating financial collapses of all time.

Bravo! Mr. Bernanke.

Dow 14,396.92, +67.43 (0.47%)
NASDAQ 3,244.37, +12.28 (0.38%)
S&P 500 1,551.15, +6.89 (0.45%)
NYSE Composite 9,059.53, +46.09 (0.51%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,574,870,375
NYSE Volume 3,734,663,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4298-2148
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 601-21 (WOW!)
WTI crude oil: 91.95, +0.39
Gold: 1,576.90, +1.80
Silver: 28.95, +0.14

Another Day, Another Dow Record

Until further notice, just figure on stocks gaining about one percent per week on the major indices. There seems to be no impediment to rising equity asset prices and there is a great deal of support for prices at these levels.

Don't count on tomorrow's non-farm payroll data to make any difference at all; the experts are predicting a gain of about 160,000 jobs in February, pretty much in line with Wednesday's ADP report.

The Russell 2000 set an all-time high today, and the S&P 500 is just about 20 points from cracking the champagne on a new record top. That event could be any time within the next two to four weeks and it is one which investors are eyeing with some skepticism as it is a much broader average than the Dow Industrials.

Party on, but not like it's 1999, because 2000 was not a pretty year.

Best guess has Dow 15,000 in sight by the end of the year, possibly much sooner, unless there is some wild geo-political event or sudden reversal of fortune coming out of the blue, but betting on black swans has not been fruitful the past four years.

There's probably never been a safer environment for short-term traders. Stocks are on an unmistakable flight path to new highs.

Dow 14,329.49, +33.25 (0.23%)
NASDAQ 3,232.09, +9.72 (0.30%)
S&P 500 1,544.26, +2.80 (0.18%)
NYSE Composite 9,013.36, +16.39 (0.18%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,647,033,000
NYSE Volume 3,871,534,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3862-2586
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 420-18
WTI crude oil: 91.56, +1.13
Gold: 1,575.10, +0.20
Silver: 28.81, +0.005

Dow Reaches New High... Again; Hugo Chavez Death a Boon for Oil Companies

Another day, another new high for the Dow Jones Industrials.

Ho, hum, bumble-dee-dum.

It's going to be this way for a while. Don't expect a major correction any time soon, no matter what happens in the real world, because we haven't had one since the fall of 2011, when the government was about to go over the artificial debt ceiling.

Did somebody say artificial? How crass. But, it should be noted that most of what occurs on computer screens and TVs these days is nothing but bunk, a self-sustaining Wall Street fantasy designed to keep the economy from deflating.

And, you know, a little deflation - in things like gas prices, food prices and maybe, god forbid, event ticket prices - might not be such a bad thing.

But that is what the fed fears most... runaway deflation, where prices actually match up with the costs of living. For those of you under the age of 50, there was a time in this country - not so long ago - that a man could support a family with his own wages and still have money left over to save.

Those days are long gone, unless you're making over $85K a year, are an expert budgeter and have an understanding wife. (Please, hold your laughter.)

That would apply to maybe 10% of the population. The rest are waiting in line at Wal-Mart at midnight waiting for the food stamp deposit to clear the bank so as to proceed to checkout. The disparities between rich and poor in America have not compressed, but, look on the bright side, they're worse in Europe and France is forcing most of their million-and-billionaires to move because of confiscatory tax rates.

So, Hugo Chavez, president of Venezuela, is dead, so ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell, BP and Chevron now have a free pass to plunder the resources of another South American nation. It's all good. Plundering in the Middle east or Africa is such a tiring trip, so far from the homeland.

This morning's ADP employment report showed a gain of 198,000 jobs in February, spurred mostly by - hold on now - small businesses. And you though the days of any job over 30 hours were over thanks to Obamacare. Well, wait until next year. We're in a recovery, dontcha know.

Today's market action was about as muted as a golf clap for a double bogey. The S&P struggled to close positive; the NASDAQ couldn't muster into the green.

When the music stops, make sure your chair has four legs.

Dow 14,296.24, +42.47 (0.30%)
NASDAQ 3,222.37, -1.76 (0.05%)
S&P 500 1,541.46, +1.67 (0.11%)
NYSE Composite 8,996.97, +18.88 (0.21%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,716,934,500
NYSE Volume 3,951,567,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3548-2878
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 520-54
WTI crude oil: 90.43, -0.39
Gold: 1,574.90, 0.00
Silver: 28.80, +0.199