'Sell in May' the Mantra for Almost All Asset Classes

The first day of may held true to the tried and true market adage, "sell in May and stay away," as all asset classes declined, though commodity prices were hardest hit and forex barely budged.

Stocks took it on the chin from traders who continue to see horror in economic data, today's fright fest courtesy of the ADP Employment Index, construction spending and the ISM Index.

ADP said the economy missed its target of 150,000 new jobs by a wide amount, coming in at 119,000 for April and revised March lower as well. Construction spending shrank by 1.7% on expectations of a 0.4% increase, and the ISM reading, though nearly in line with expectations, registered a relatively weak 50.7, just barely above the 50 mark which signals growth above the number or decline below it.

It was likely the ADP figure that sent stocks careening at the open, but it wasn't until after the FOMC announcement at 2:00 pm EDT that stocks really began to slump deeply, finishing near the lows of the day after the Fed said they would keeps rates as they were, to the surprise of absolutely nobody. Daily volume was moderate.

The Vix spiked above 14.50, a signal that risk was being sold off, though still mired in a low range. Gold, silver and oil all surpassed the losses in stocks, with crude take=ing the biggest dive. WTI and Brent continue to converge; the expectation is that they will align at some point so that there is a global price for oil. Currently, futures are less than $10 apart, with Brent the higher of the two, falling below $100 per barrel as Europe's recession/depression begins to reach epic proportions.

As for gold and silver, the paper prices posted don't really seem to matter any more, as the price for physical metal has departed company from the spot price in nearly every venue in every country on the planet. People are aware of currency debasement and are seeking ways to preserve what little wealth remains in this era of extreme punishment for savers.

Treasuries have fallen below the recent plateau levels and continue to point up weakness in the economy and the need for some to flee to safe havens. As inflation remains subdued - using a Fedspeak term - bond holders are not losing much over time, though durations shorter than five years are yielding almost nothing. The benchmark ten-year was last seen around 1.63% yield.

The first day of the new month brought out the bears, though it remains to be seen whether this is the beginning of a trend or just a one-trick pony. The government's non-farm payroll data, due out Friday prior to the opening, should be the highlight of the week. Anticipation is for 155,000 new jobs created in April, but, after ADP's disappointing numbers this morning, prospects appear dim.

Dow 14,700.95, -138.85 (0.94%)
NASDAQ 3,299.13, -29.66 (0.89%)
S&P 500 1,582.70, -14.87 (0.93%)
NYSE Composite 9,174.76, -102.12 (1.10%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,769,443,125
NYSE Volume 3,697,257,75o
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1665-4789
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 377-53
WTI crude oil: 91.03, -2.43
Gold: 1,446.20, -25.90
Silver: 23.34, -0.842

Gold and Silver Mania Building as Global Currency Debasement Accelerates

Stocks were down heavy early in the session, but, thanks uncle uncle Bennie and his magic bucks created out of thin air, traders bought the dip and sent the major indices higher throughout the day.

In a few words, this is the most inane, superfluous rally ever seen in the history of mankind. It's based on nothing more than cheap money and ignorant of fundamentals. Eventually, there will be a spectacular crash.

Those who see straight through the global currency debasement regime are content to ride it out on the sidelines in cash or stable assets such as real estate, gold, silver or productive small enterprises and emergent technology, where the underground economy is flourishing.

Theft via either inflation or taxation is theft no matter what, and between the central bank - the US Federal Reserve, a private corporation, mind you - and the various levels of government, incomes are being reduced and savings eviscerated on a regular basis. Those being hurt the most are wage-earners, who have no option out of the payroll tax system, which rips away one's earnings before they even reach the hands of the workers. As the United States slides inexorably into socialism, fascism and an overt police state, those individuals wise enough to resist are turning to alternative means of subsistence via home-based businesses, backyard gardens, online sales and other avenues which supplants the tax system by keeping more money in the hands of its rightful owners: those who have earned it.

As for inflation, there are only a few protections against that ravaging discounter of money's marginal value, though as the system becomes evermore a game played by the rich and connected, average Joes and Janes are beginning to awaken and seek refuge, especially in the precious metals, which are at the nascent phase of a boom that will overthrow the fiat money systems and turn the world upside-down.

Despite the lame attempt by central banks (likely the Federal Reserve with assistance through their usual commanders in the field, the largest banks and insurance companies) to take down the price of gold and spread propaganda through their controlled media outlets that the 13-year gold bull run is over, the gold bullion market, in particular, is red-hot, and large enough ($14-16 trillion globally) to impact all markets and commerce in dramatic fashion.

It is estimated that less than two percent of people in the world own or control some quantity of gold or silver, a number which the world's central banks alternately sneer at or shiver over. An increase in the collective consciousness which levers up gold and silver holdings to a mere five percent of the global populace could easily upset the fiat currency regime, already well on its way to self-inflicted destruction.

Despite the paper (spot) prices of gold ($1470) and silver ($24), these commodities are not out of the reach of average citizens as a store of wealth and a hedge against currency debasement or default due to the wide array of products offered.

Depending on how much you are purchasing, gold on eBay (the new, de facto real market for PMs) is selling for anywhere between $1550 and $2000, per ounce, the higher number being the price paid for fractions of ounces or even fractions of grams (1/10 grams are ridiculously priced, well over $2k/oz.).

The high end on the scale - for the smallest amounts - seems to indicate that a mania is gradually forming. Small-timers with limited resources are thinking, "I MUST have some gold, no matter the cost." Many 1/10 oz. gold coins are selling for well over $200.

If the trend accelerates and gold and silver become recognized as worthwhile investments or hedges - no matter how small the amount - by just 2% of the population in the US, expect gold at $2k to be the norm, rather than the exception per small denominations.

I'm seeing plenty of 1 oz. gold bars and coins going for upwards of $1550, most at $1600 and higher. Ever-popular Krugerrands are holding pretty steady for 1 oz coins at $1525-1560, with a rare one going for right at $1500, but not often.

Since ebay is charging 10% fees to sellers, the sellers are getting premiums insufficient to compensate for said fees, making it a real buyers' market. Demand is through the roof. Any properly-priced auction sells, usually with multiple bidders. Silver is still getting roughly $28-31 per ounce over all varieties of coins, bars and denominations, at a high premium to spot or "paper" price.

It would do everyone good to at least take a small amount of time to investigate and understand the value of investing in gold and silver. Most people invest in paper products like stocks or bonds, and many also aspire to owning a home or farm or valuable real estate, yet they have no interest in owning gold or silver, the two precious metals which have been employed as currencies for thousands of years.

Those who have been invested in precious metals over the last 10 to 12 years have experienced outsize gains against all other currencies and have outpaced stocks and bonds by a country mile. Often termed dull, unexciting and relics of the past, there doesn't have to be anything exciting about safety in investments. The thrills and stresses of the stock market are easily laid to rest by the relative peace and prosperity of owning currencies which have stood the test of time and will again rise to prominence as the fiat regime grinds inexorably to its end.

Dow 14,839.80, +21.05 (0.14%)
Nasdaq 3,328.79, +21.77 (0.66%)
S&P 500 1,597.57, +3.96 (0.25%)
NYSE Composite 9,276.88, +31.66(0.34%)
NYSE Volume 3,980,642,750
Nasdaq Volume 1,943,042,875
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4131-2284
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 445-36
WTI crude oil: 93.02, -1.24
Gold: 1,476.10, +8.70
Silver: 24.20, +0.078

Stocks Ramp Higher, But Gold and Silver Outshine

This is one crazy market.

Considering that there are nearly 50 million Americans on food stamps, earnings reports are showing a slowdown in top and bottom-line growth and recent economic indicators suggest the economy is shrinking rather than improving, stocks continue go up regardless of any and all warning signs, today approaching all-time highs on the S&P and the Dow Jones Industrials.

It's obviously all about the Bernanke bucks, risk-free money inserted into the market via the primary dealers with nowhere to go - since the banks haven't increased lending since 2007 - except into speculative investments, or, in a word: stocks.

The data de jure came from the Dallas Fed, which posted a sickening -15.6 on it's monthly manufacturing index, on expectations of a 5.0 reading, down sharply from last month's 7.40 number. Additionally, personal spending and personal income matched up gains of 0.2% each for March, both down sharply from February.

With $85 billion a month coming directly from the central bank, should one expect anything else? Probably not. Data simply doesn't matter any more. The issue is that the Fed's stimulative activity is only helping the top 10%, particularly those invested in stocks. Savers have been beaten nearly to death due to the record-low yields in fixed investments, so the middle class has been effectively short-changed and turned into nothing but debt slaves.

There are alternative, as has been pointed out expressly on this blog for many years. Land, gold, silver, art, and other tangible assets (especially machinery which is capable of producing products which produce income) may not show daily, weekly or quarterly gains like stocks, but neither are they taxed if held closely.

In the cases of gold, silver and real estate - if owned outright without a mortgage - these hard assets can also be used as loan collateral, to purchase even more assets, or, if one is accustomed to a bit of risk, produce leverage. Bottom line, they are preservers of wealth, as has clearly been the case over the last 10-12 years in which the precious metals have tripled, quadrupled or more, depending upon one's entry point.

Today's stock market gains, though solid, were not as good as those in the precious metals. While the major averages were up between 0.72 and 0.85%, gold gained 0.95 and silver outpaced them all with a solid 1.53% gain, not bad for one day.

But, one needs to appreciate gold and silver not for gains or falls in the market. Even with the smash-down two weeks ago, holders of physical metal haven't lost a thing. They still have the same amount of American silver eagles (ASE) or Kruggerrands, bars, coins or jewelry. And they will have them when markets implode, when the currency crisis comes full circle or when paper investments go up in flames, as they always do.

Besides the obvious notion that all of the stock indices are down sharply against gold or silver over the past 12 years, the precious metals remain the ultimate store of value. Why else would central banks - especially China, Russia and other Asian countries - and their citizens be buying in record amounts?

Hold 'em and don't fold 'em.

Dow 14,818.75, +106.20 (0.72%)
NASDAQ 3,307.02, +27.76 (0.85%)
S&P 500 1,593.61, +11.37 (0.72%)
NYSE Composite 9,237.90, +68.00 (0.74%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,458,762,250
NYSE Volume 2,954,210,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4645-1800
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 399-25 (extreme, again)
WTI crude oil: 94.26, +1.26
Gold: 1,467.40, +13.80
Silver: 24.12, +0.364

Stocks End Week on Flat Note after 1Q GDP Miss

Stocks were in a general state of dizziness following the release of first quarter GDP, expected to come in at three percent (dreamers), but instead posted a disappointing 2.5%, most of it (2.24%) fueled by personal consumption expenditures (of which the majority was food, energy and clothing). Imports and Government were drags, showing declines of 0.9% and 0.8% respectively.

Those were offset by PCE, exports (0.4%), inventories (1.03%) and fixed investment (0.58%).

Noting that last number, thank Obamacare and general economic malaise for the lack of CapEx spending, which continues to disappoint and without which the USA will never escape the dregs of this low-growth environment. For the past ten quarters, GDP has grown at an annual rate of 1.9%. With inflation somewhere between two and four percent and the US population growth rate just a touch under one percent, the US economy is operating at stall speed.

With those numbers in tow, it was surprising that stocks did not decline sharply, but, as we know all too well, Wall Street believes that Bernanke has their back, to the tune of $85 billion in freshly minted cash every month.

Enjoy the weekend, because sooner or later, all the BS money-printing is going to bite the economy hard. We're doomed.

Dow 14,712.55, +11.75 (0.08%)
NASDAQ 3,279.26, -10.73 (0.33%)
S&P 500 1,582.24, -2.92 (0.18%)
NYSE Composite 9,169.89, -18.96 (0.21%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,599,216,625
NYSE Volume 3,436,212,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2495-3867
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 256-36
WTI crude oil: 93.00, -0.64
Gold: 1,453.60, -8.40
Silver: 23.76, -0.382

Stocks Slump Late as Gold and Silver Rebound with Gusto

Stocks erased early gains in a somewhat odd selloff late in the session, but their thunder was surely stolen by action in the precious metals markets.

Gold, since the paper price smash-down of April 12 and 15, has regained half of its losses incurred during that spectacular waterfall event. Silver, also negatively affected during the same time period, had its best day in fifteen months, with outsize gains of nearly six percent.

Whatever the intent of the paper gold manipulators, it seems to have backfired. Instead of declaring the gold rally "over," coin and bullion shops from Hong Kong to Mumbai to Shanghai to New York have experienced the briskest business in many years, as individuals rushed to secure physical supplies of the precious metals during a time of increasingly short supply.

While the physical price of gold was roughly $40-60 higher - though some reports say bulk buyers were paying close to $2000 per ounce - silver never really skipped a beat from the $29-30 range, as that was the market price on exchanges such as eBay and also via high premiums from online and brick-and-mortar dealers who reported being out of stock for many popular items such as silver eagles and bars.

The frenzied buying of the past ten days finally has drifted back to the paper gold markets on the Comex and Globex, to a point at which supply shortages are easing a little and the price has risen to more respectable levels. What remains to be seen is how customers who thought they had claims on physical gold through the LMBE and Comex but are instead getting warehouse receipts and being forced to settle in cash will retaliate.

If the paper and physical prices continue to diverge, it spells trouble for the paper exchanges, who do not have sufficient quantity of metal to meet those who wish to stand for delivery.

What is significant is how buyers seemed to pop out of the proverbial woodwork to buy quantities of gold and silver in physical form, as opposed to the speculators who trade nothing but what seems to be worthless paper and empty promises. If just five percent of the people on the planet engage in spirited gold and silver purchasing as a hedge against the currency devaluation that continues to roil world markets, the precious metals will be in extreme short supply in just a few months, sending the price through the roof and forcing the paper exchanges into default for failure to deliver.

For stocks, the incessant ramping due to non-stop easing in the form of outright money printing and de facto devaluation of currencies - especially the US Dollar, Yen and Euro - is nothing more than a function of excess capital looking for a place to go. With hedge funds and the mega-banks leveraged to the hilt, a hiccup from the gold bugs or the bond markets could trigger a selloff, complete with margin calls and scrambles for cash.

The global economy is being tested for all its Keynesian worth, though it seems the Austrian economists may be gaining an upper hand. The failed policies of the Fed, the EU and the Bank of Japan demonstrate just how desperate the central bankers are to keep economies functioning despite sure signs of a slowdown.

While it is usually unwise to fight the Fed, they themselves should be reminded that markets matter and manipulated markets and fiat currencies have an inglorious history of abject failure.

Today's fall-off in stocks could have been due to a wide range of causes, though it may just have been a front-running of tomorrow's first look at first quarter US GDP. Estimates are as high as three percent, and missing that mark may be the one peice of economic data that the stock jockeys just cannot stomach. If GDP comes in quoted at under two percent, look for a rush out of stocks and into treasuries, which have been in a state of suspended animation between 1.68 and 1.72 percent for more than three weeks.

Then again, its hard to beat a size player who keeps flooding the market with $85 billion per month and the outsize easing from the BOJ.

Dow 14,700.80, +24.50 (0.17%)
NASDAQ 3,289.99, +20.34 (0.62%)
S&P 500 1,585.16, +6.37 (0.40%)
NYSE Composite 9,188.86, +42.40 (0.46%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,971,246,250
NYSE Volume 4,198,031,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4182-2226
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 472-29 (extreme)
WTI crude oil: 93.64, 2.21
Gold: 1,462.00, +38.30
Silver: 24.14, +1.307