So much for yesterday's "slow as she goes" commentary.
This morning, CNBC welcomed hedge fund manager, David Tepper, to the Squawk Box show, and the founder and manager of Appaloosa Management - with $17 billion in funds under management - did as instructed, calling everything under the sun "bullish" and giving the rest of the investment community the "all clear" sign, as he did about a year ago in much the same manner.
This is how the fraud of Wall Street works and continues to work. Trot out the most recognizable bull onto the most-acceptable financial TV show, let him goose the futures, wave his arms around and signal another 800-point rally on the Dow. That's about what happened the last time he appeared on the CNBC pre-market show, so there's no reason to believe that the plan was not afoot once again.
On the subject of whether or not now is an optimum time to invest, consider that the Dow and S&P are at all-time highs and the NASDAQ continues to set 12 1/2-year records. So, unless you think the time-worn advice of "buy low, sell high" should be turned completely on its head, right now could not be a worse time to initiate positions.
However, if one has had enough of sitting on the sidelines watching the major averages gain 120-140% over the past four-to-five years, by all means, jump in. The water's fine. Just don't be like the proverbial frog and fail to notice when it begins to boil. Otherwise, you might just "croak" on your own stock picks.
Dow 15,215.25, +123.57 (0.82%)
NASDAQ 3,462.61, +23.82 (0.69%)
S&P 500 1,650.34, +16.57 (1.01%)
NYSE Composite 9,515.86, +78.68 (0.83%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,771,770,375
NYSE Volume 3,716,203,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4362-2166
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 749-28 (the new normal!)
WTI crude oil: 94.21, -0.96
Gold: 1,424.50, -9.80
Silver: 23.38, -0.317
Tuesday, May 14, 2013
Monday, May 13, 2013
Slowly Goes Wall Street (Remember, It's May)
Equity markets were rather dull today, on exceptionally low volume - which is saying a lot, since volume left the building years ago.
Dull, boring, inconsequential, however, is how financial markets are supposed to be, or, that is at least how they used to be before the advent of personal computers, CNBC and individually-managed accounts. Today's go-go markets are driven by extra doses of liquidity, courtesy of the Fed (as much as readers hate reading that over and over and over again, the author hates having to mention it even more), HFTs, flash crashes, breaking news (why doesn't somebody fix it?), surprises, tweets, scandals, ponzi schemes, dotcoms, options, derivatives, swaps, repos and hot money flowing from carry trades into equities and back out again.
One can only wonder how many times the same money is re-invested, re-invented, re-created, re-hypothecated, recycled, rinsed and repeated. It seems sometimes that one need only a brokerage account and a pair of fast hands to tip-type your way into the wondrous world of high finance. If only such were true, we'd all be traders and multi-millionaires just like the guys on the infomercials telling you that NOW is the time to FLIP THAT HOUSE!
Alas, investing is boring and unexciting, and well it should be, though Americans, driven by media, need the big splash, the dazzle of bright lights and the promise of easy money to be enticed. Sadly for the marketeers and their media whores, more Americans play the ponies, gamble at casinos or play the lottery than invest in stocks, bonds or commodities. We've been programmed to be risk-takers and the stock market - try as it might - just seems to many to be a rigged game for rich guys in suits and ties and fancy women in shiny, tight-fitting business suits.
Thus, we have these dull markets, in which the major brokerages make war with each other via the computer algos, following each other into what eventually becomes a black hole, a void, a nonsensical, immaterial, valueless dump. That's what our stock markets have devolved into, especially after the crash of 2008-09. The major indices may have come all the way back in the four-to-five years since then, but all that money has been sucked out of the market by the brokerages and hedge funds via bonuses. It's common knowledge that the average investor usually gets screwed unless he/she is either very careful or very smart. There's just no way to win a rigged game. As the old adage goes, "if you're playing a game of poker and you don't know who the mark is, chances are it's probably you."
The general American public is simply not that stupid. After being burned by the high-tech Wall Street crooks in 2000, 2001 and again in 2008, they have not returned. Some maybe, but they're a small minority, mostly younger folks who don't know better or older people with money to burn, potentially. Paper losses still sting, and, if there's another severe downturn in the markets any time soon - an event long, long overdue, according to fundamentals - they'll be gone for good as well.
With all the scams, crimes and untold misdeeds that have become all-too-common on Wall Street - without, incidentally, any criminal prosecutions - is there any wonder that average people with money are still shy about investing in stocks? In a perverse way, thats why this market must and will likely continue to defy gravity and levitate to higher and higher levels: because another crash would destroy what little bit of confidence is left in the ultimate confidence game.
So, now that the banks are all sufficiently recapitalized (supposedly) and everything in America is just hunky-dorey, Wall Street may be looking itself in the mirror and wondering if they've taken too many scalps over the past few years. Maybe they'll keep the liquidity-driven, non-fundamental, irrational exuberance going for a while longer, but slowly, much more slowly.
Or is it time to turn it over again? Wash, rinse, repeat...
Dow 15,091.68, -26.81 (0.18%)
NASDAQ 3,438.79, +2.21 (0.06%)
S&P 500 1,633.77, +0.07 (0.00%)
NYSE Composite 9,437.17, -5.59 (0.06%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,605,809,375
NYSE Volume 3,124,652,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2673-3792
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 475-30
WTI crude oil: 95.17, -0.87
Gold: 1,434.30, -2.30
Silver: 23.70, +0.038
Dull, boring, inconsequential, however, is how financial markets are supposed to be, or, that is at least how they used to be before the advent of personal computers, CNBC and individually-managed accounts. Today's go-go markets are driven by extra doses of liquidity, courtesy of the Fed (as much as readers hate reading that over and over and over again, the author hates having to mention it even more), HFTs, flash crashes, breaking news (why doesn't somebody fix it?), surprises, tweets, scandals, ponzi schemes, dotcoms, options, derivatives, swaps, repos and hot money flowing from carry trades into equities and back out again.
One can only wonder how many times the same money is re-invested, re-invented, re-created, re-hypothecated, recycled, rinsed and repeated. It seems sometimes that one need only a brokerage account and a pair of fast hands to tip-type your way into the wondrous world of high finance. If only such were true, we'd all be traders and multi-millionaires just like the guys on the infomercials telling you that NOW is the time to FLIP THAT HOUSE!
Alas, investing is boring and unexciting, and well it should be, though Americans, driven by media, need the big splash, the dazzle of bright lights and the promise of easy money to be enticed. Sadly for the marketeers and their media whores, more Americans play the ponies, gamble at casinos or play the lottery than invest in stocks, bonds or commodities. We've been programmed to be risk-takers and the stock market - try as it might - just seems to many to be a rigged game for rich guys in suits and ties and fancy women in shiny, tight-fitting business suits.
Thus, we have these dull markets, in which the major brokerages make war with each other via the computer algos, following each other into what eventually becomes a black hole, a void, a nonsensical, immaterial, valueless dump. That's what our stock markets have devolved into, especially after the crash of 2008-09. The major indices may have come all the way back in the four-to-five years since then, but all that money has been sucked out of the market by the brokerages and hedge funds via bonuses. It's common knowledge that the average investor usually gets screwed unless he/she is either very careful or very smart. There's just no way to win a rigged game. As the old adage goes, "if you're playing a game of poker and you don't know who the mark is, chances are it's probably you."
The general American public is simply not that stupid. After being burned by the high-tech Wall Street crooks in 2000, 2001 and again in 2008, they have not returned. Some maybe, but they're a small minority, mostly younger folks who don't know better or older people with money to burn, potentially. Paper losses still sting, and, if there's another severe downturn in the markets any time soon - an event long, long overdue, according to fundamentals - they'll be gone for good as well.
With all the scams, crimes and untold misdeeds that have become all-too-common on Wall Street - without, incidentally, any criminal prosecutions - is there any wonder that average people with money are still shy about investing in stocks? In a perverse way, thats why this market must and will likely continue to defy gravity and levitate to higher and higher levels: because another crash would destroy what little bit of confidence is left in the ultimate confidence game.
So, now that the banks are all sufficiently recapitalized (supposedly) and everything in America is just hunky-dorey, Wall Street may be looking itself in the mirror and wondering if they've taken too many scalps over the past few years. Maybe they'll keep the liquidity-driven, non-fundamental, irrational exuberance going for a while longer, but slowly, much more slowly.
Or is it time to turn it over again? Wash, rinse, repeat...
Dow 15,091.68, -26.81 (0.18%)
NASDAQ 3,438.79, +2.21 (0.06%)
S&P 500 1,633.77, +0.07 (0.00%)
NYSE Composite 9,437.17, -5.59 (0.06%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,605,809,375
NYSE Volume 3,124,652,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2673-3792
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 475-30
WTI crude oil: 95.17, -0.87
Gold: 1,434.30, -2.30
Silver: 23.70, +0.038
Friday, May 10, 2013
Politicians Lie. No, Really, They Do. (and so do bankers)
Mark this day down as number 14 of the last 16 in which the stock market (major indices) registered gains.
As such, limited commentary. In fact, one word: Benghazi.
Below: "Get Happy" composed by Harold Arlen, with lyrics written by Ted Koehler. It was the first song they wrote together, and was introduced by Ruth Etting in The Nine-Fifteen Revue in 1930. Judy Garland performs the depression era hit in the film, Summer Stock (1950).
Dow 15,118.49, +35.87 (0.24%)
NASDAQ 3,436.58, +27.41 (0.80%)
S&P 500 1,633.70, +7.03 (0.43%)
NYSE Composite 9,442.76, +33.53 (0.36%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,661,819,250
NYSE Volume 3,310,894,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3993-2411
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 544-37
WTI crude oil: 96.04, -0.35
Gold: 1,436.60, -32.00
Silver: 23.66, -0.253
As such, limited commentary. In fact, one word: Benghazi.
Below: "Get Happy" composed by Harold Arlen, with lyrics written by Ted Koehler. It was the first song they wrote together, and was introduced by Ruth Etting in The Nine-Fifteen Revue in 1930. Judy Garland performs the depression era hit in the film, Summer Stock (1950).
Dow 15,118.49, +35.87 (0.24%)
NASDAQ 3,436.58, +27.41 (0.80%)
S&P 500 1,633.70, +7.03 (0.43%)
NYSE Composite 9,442.76, +33.53 (0.36%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,661,819,250
NYSE Volume 3,310,894,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3993-2411
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 544-37
WTI crude oil: 96.04, -0.35
Gold: 1,436.60, -32.00
Silver: 23.66, -0.253
Thursday, May 9, 2013
Shockingly, Stocks Lose Ground
Well, that didn't take long.
Yesterday, in a pique of exasperation over levitating equity markets trading on Fed liquidity rather than fundamentals (it's only been this way for four years, as of today), I promised no further commentary until the markets posted a negative session.
And, presto, there it is, though, as down days are measured, this one wasn't much of anything.
The rationale behind not commenting was due to recent market activity, in a framework in which nearly all economic data has been sour or outright bad. Markets have come to ignore reality "on the ground," in favor of a more optimistic mindset. Beginning April 18, the Dow Industrials had posted gains 13 of the past 14 days, prior to today. Ignorance may be blissful, but making money off it seems somehow wrong.
At least the range was a little better than it has been. The Dow was down nearly sixty points at its nadir, and up about 41 at the peak, so the range was about 100 points, top to bottom, not exactly what one might call volatile, being less than one percent, but better than it has been, suggesting that maybe a few people are getting a little skittish about where this is all heading.
That place may be Nirvana to some, but from the looks of things on Main Street, USA, there is scarcely a resemblance to the unbridled euphoria that infects Wall Street every time they ring the opening bell. Traders have been - and likely will be - making money hand over fist on the upside, without having to bother checking fundamentals, scouring stocks for the best picks nor doing intensive research. Simply playing the indices have brought gains of great magnitude, and leveraging... well, it doesn't get much better than that.
Technicians may want to keep an eye on the Dow Transports (^DJT), as they confirmed the new highs yesterday, but took quite a tumble of some 72 points today (1.13%). While the transportation index may be back-loading the gains on the Industrials, it could also be front-running and telegraphing a decline.
But, of course, this is just one day, and we all know that tonight Ben Bernanke will crank up the printing press once again and tomorrow will be all roses, unicorns and skittles.
That may sound sarcastic, because it is.
Printing money with nothing to back it except empty promises always leads to economic catastrophe.
Every time, and this time is no different.
Dow 15,082.62, -22.50 (0.15%)
NASDAQ 3,409.17, -4.10 (0.12%)
S&P 500 1,626.67, -6.02 (0.37%)
NYSE Composite 9,401.05, -62.26 (0.66%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,746,976,625
NYSE Volume 3,482,779,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2358-4009
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 588-34
WTI crude oil: 96.39, -0.23
Gold: 1,468.60, -5.10
Silver: 23.91, -0.016
Yesterday, in a pique of exasperation over levitating equity markets trading on Fed liquidity rather than fundamentals (it's only been this way for four years, as of today), I promised no further commentary until the markets posted a negative session.
And, presto, there it is, though, as down days are measured, this one wasn't much of anything.
The rationale behind not commenting was due to recent market activity, in a framework in which nearly all economic data has been sour or outright bad. Markets have come to ignore reality "on the ground," in favor of a more optimistic mindset. Beginning April 18, the Dow Industrials had posted gains 13 of the past 14 days, prior to today. Ignorance may be blissful, but making money off it seems somehow wrong.
At least the range was a little better than it has been. The Dow was down nearly sixty points at its nadir, and up about 41 at the peak, so the range was about 100 points, top to bottom, not exactly what one might call volatile, being less than one percent, but better than it has been, suggesting that maybe a few people are getting a little skittish about where this is all heading.
That place may be Nirvana to some, but from the looks of things on Main Street, USA, there is scarcely a resemblance to the unbridled euphoria that infects Wall Street every time they ring the opening bell. Traders have been - and likely will be - making money hand over fist on the upside, without having to bother checking fundamentals, scouring stocks for the best picks nor doing intensive research. Simply playing the indices have brought gains of great magnitude, and leveraging... well, it doesn't get much better than that.
Technicians may want to keep an eye on the Dow Transports (^DJT), as they confirmed the new highs yesterday, but took quite a tumble of some 72 points today (1.13%). While the transportation index may be back-loading the gains on the Industrials, it could also be front-running and telegraphing a decline.
But, of course, this is just one day, and we all know that tonight Ben Bernanke will crank up the printing press once again and tomorrow will be all roses, unicorns and skittles.
That may sound sarcastic, because it is.
Printing money with nothing to back it except empty promises always leads to economic catastrophe.
Every time, and this time is no different.
Dow 15,082.62, -22.50 (0.15%)
NASDAQ 3,409.17, -4.10 (0.12%)
S&P 500 1,626.67, -6.02 (0.37%)
NYSE Composite 9,401.05, -62.26 (0.66%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,746,976,625
NYSE Volume 3,482,779,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2358-4009
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 588-34
WTI crude oil: 96.39, -0.23
Gold: 1,468.60, -5.10
Silver: 23.91, -0.016
Wednesday, May 8, 2013
No Comment on Continuing Ramp
No comment until stocks post a losing session. Until then, just the numbers.
Dow 15,105.12, +48.92 (0.32%)
NASDAQ 3,413.27, +16.64 (0.49%)
S&P 500 1,632.69, +6.73 (0.41%)
NYSE Composite 9,463.32, +54.31 (0.58%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,715,862,500.00
NYSE Volume 3,797,192,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4088-2261
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 724-29
WTI crude oil: 96.62, +1.00
Gold: 1,473.70, +24.90
Silver: 23.93, +0.121
Dow 15,105.12, +48.92 (0.32%)
NASDAQ 3,413.27, +16.64 (0.49%)
S&P 500 1,632.69, +6.73 (0.41%)
NYSE Composite 9,463.32, +54.31 (0.58%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,715,862,500.00
NYSE Volume 3,797,192,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4088-2261
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 724-29
WTI crude oil: 96.62, +1.00
Gold: 1,473.70, +24.90
Silver: 23.93, +0.121
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