Drums of War Bring Out the Traders

It didn't take long for Wall Street professionals to get over their fear of war in the Middle East, particularly Syria.

In fact, it took less than one day for the drumbeats of potential warfare to bring out the animal spirits and send stocks soaring.

Unfortunately, volume is still in the "new normal" range of moderate to dismal, and the Dow stopped ominously short of the magic 15,000 mark, a sign that there's still a healthy level of skepticism over the future of American empire.

Today's activity was really nothing of great consequence. Most traders are waiting until Friday's non-farm payroll report before the bell to establish positions or head for the hills. It's a very undecided market presently and that doesn't seem to want to change, especially considering the headwinds of the debt ceiling and Fed tapering on the agenda later in the month.

This little two-day rally did reverse the overall trend, for now, and the major indices are sitting close to key levels of resistance, though the Dow and S&P are still stuck below their 50-day moving averages.

Commodities acted very strangely, with significant losses in oil, gold and silver.

Dow 14,930.87, +96.91 (0.65%)
NASDAQ 3,649.04, +36.43 (1.01%)
S&P 500 1,653.08, +13.31 (0.81%)
NYSE Composite 9,400.20, +66.71 (0.71%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,812,184,125
NYSE Volume 3,516,943,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4510-2082
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 149-57
WTI crude oil: 107.23, -1.31
Gold: 1,390.00, -22.00
Silver: 23.42, -1.014

Boehner, Pelosi Side with O'Bomber, Tank Markets

This past Friday, nearly the entire civilized world believed that US bombs would be falling on Syria over the weekend.

Abruptly, n Saturday, the president, in a true CYA moment, decided to get authorization from congress, which, according to our constitution (remember, we still have one, if in name only), is a necessity in order to attack any entity that does not pose a serious, immediate threat to the nation, and Syria easily qualifies.

With the congress winding down its month-long vacation (somebody remind us why are we paying them), a vote on the matter of whether or not to use offensive weapons against Syria couldn't occur much before September 9, the date upon which congress will officially resume to be in session. Thus, the inevitable bombing and unofficial start to World War III would have to wait.

On Tuesday, the house leadership of both parties - Nancy Peolosi and John Boehner - were back on the Hill, each making statements in support of the Bomber-in-Chief's proposal to use force against Syria.

So, if one is to believe in what the tea-leaves tell us, the president will get his authorization, despite some grandstanding by Tea Party members on the right and anti-war types on the left. Never mind that only nine percent of Americans support any kind of military action against Syria. The one-party rulers in Washington will have their way and theirs is the way of war.

Wall Street didn't take the news kindly. Up sharply early on, thinking that maybe, possibly, congress would not give the president the green light, markets did an about-face after the Boehner/Pelosi comments and stayed down for the remainder of the session. Everybody put away their "Dow 15,000!" hats and got back to thinking about how spiked oil and gas prices might negatively affect the economy, how bombing a nation essentially tearing itself apart in a civil war would benefit US interests, and how this might weigh on decisions surrounding the budget, the debt ceiling and whether the Fed would taper its bond-buying at its next meeting (Sept. 17-18).

With that, traders wiped 100 points off the Dow, albeit on volume that was hardly indicative of a back-to-work mentality. Come to think of it, since Obamacare is making work in America largely a part-time experience, maybe lower volume and shorter trading sessions might be just the ticket.

Dow 14,833.96, +23.65 (0.16%)
NASDAQ 3,612.61, +22.74 (0.63%)
S&P 500 1,639.77, +6.80 (0.42%)
NYSE Composite 9,333.50, +62.84 (0.68%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,568,192,750.00
NYSE Volume 4,111,344,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4025-2691
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 130-89
WTI crude oil: 108.54, +0.89
Gold: 1,412.00, +15.90
Silver: 24.43, +0.916

Stocks End Worst Month Since May 2012; Odds on Syria Strike; Despite Kerry Rhetoric, Still no Proof

We end the month of August on an oddly-down note, since Secretary of State John Kerry made an impassioned speech about the need to punish the Assad regime in Syria for alleged chemical strikes against its own people, but still did not offer any substantive proof that those loyal to the embattled president of Syria were responsible for the attacks.

Odd, it was, that stocks did not rally in patriotic fervor over going to war, insofar as any action the president may take against Syria is entirely without authorization from congress and decidedly unconstitutional. But, in the politics of the new American dictatorship under president Obama, such trifles as the War Powers Act and the constitution - to say nothing of the American public's 91% disapproval of any action being taken against Syria - count for nil when the stakes are so politically high.

Thus, we present the odds for the timing of missile strikes - "tailored" ones, using the president's own vernacular:
Friday (prior to 12:00 pm EDT): 7-5
Saturday: even
Sunday: 4-1
Monday: 7-1
No strike: 40-1

Stocks ended the most brutal month since May of 2012, spurred to the downside first, by talk of tapering by the Fed and general fear, second, by talk of military action from the Obama administration. The time for talk being essentially over, it is expected that Damascus will be in flames shortly, the Fed will nip about $10-15 billion off its monthly bond-buying binge by the end of September and stocks will continue their trajectory to the downside.

On the day, the Russell 2000 and Dow Transports were mashed fairly substantially, and, despite some fierce tape-painting in the final five minutes of trading (about 40 Dow points), stocks finished the week with their third loss in the past five sessions.

For the week - in which the Dow closed lower for the fourth straight week (first time this year) - the Dow Industrials were down 200.20 points, the NASDAQ shed 67.92 and the S&P 500 was nipped for 30.53 points, a pretty severe decline.

Microsoft (MSFT) was the only Dow component to finish positive for the month.

Now we await the weekend's entertainment: College Football and Bombing Syria.

What could be better?

Dow 14,810.31, -30.64 (0.21%)
NASDAQ 3,589.87, -30.43 (0.84%)
S&P 500 1,632.97, -5.20 (0.32%)
NYSE Composite 9,270.70, -45.12 (0.48%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,229,340,500
NYSE Volume 3,001,316,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1822-4668
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 55-73
WTI crude oil: 107.65, -1.15
Gold: 1,396.10, -16.80
Silver: 23.46, -0.627

Confused? Don't Worry. Everybody Else Is, Too

Ours is a complex world, and there's probably nothing more complex than the intricate workings of today's financial markets.

The news flow of the day involved nothing much of note moving forward on the Syrian issue, a second reading of second quarter GDP (the new, vastly inflated version) of 2.5%, lower initial unemployment claims and the laughable nationwide "strike" by fast food workers demanding a doubling of their wages, from roughly the minimum wage of $7.25 to about $15 per hour.

Here's a few clues for the burger flippers of the world: a) you'd be better off on welfare; b) McDonald's, Burger King and Wendy's aren't going to double your pay; c) your new status as part-time employees is thanks to your hero, president Obama and his health care reform package; d)moving out of your parents' home and having a kid out of wedlock were probably bad ideas.

While we're on the advice meme for today, for the President: don't do it.
For congress: impeachment is still an option.
For Vlad Putin: Keep doing what you're doing.
For gold and silver bugs: buy or hold.
For stock holders: SELL!
and, for Miley Cyrus haters: Get a life. Stuff happens.

Meanwhile, stocks rallied hard in the morning and sold off hard in the final hour, similar to yesterday's action and a clearly bearish trading pattern. Bonds sold off, early, then rallied, sending yields up, then down.

Oil fell sharply.

If none of this makes any sense in a macro kind of way, that's probably the way it's supposed to be. As somebody very wise once said, "if it were easy, we'd all be rich." Ain't that the truth.

Friday is the final day of trading for the month, which really doesn't mean much of anything, except that, being August, expect some volume to return to the stock market the first week of September. Overall, it looks like a sure down month for the Dow and S&P, though the NASDAQ has bucked the trend somewhat, falling only 0.1% - basically dead even - for the month.

Since labor Day is fast upon us, here's a quote to ponder: "From Each According to His Ability, To Each According to His Need" -- The Tramp's Speech from Ayn Rand's "Atlas Shrugged."

We may or may not be back tomorrow, depending largely upon global events, whether the market moves are large or small and whether the fish are biting.

Dow 14,840.95, +16.44 (0.11%)
NASDAQ 3,620.30, +26.95 (0.75%)
S&P 500 1,638.17, +3.21 (0.20%)
NYSE Composite 9,315.83, +6.75 (0.07%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,288,533,125
NYSE Volume 2,802,161,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4291-2233
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 88-53
WTI crude oil: 108.80, -1.30
Gold: 1,412.90, -5.90
Silver: 24.09, -0.301

Energy Stocks Push Dow Higher in Listless Session

In terms of the declines from the past two days, today's paltry gains were about 20% of the pullback, so technically, Wednesday's session was nothing much more than a knee-jerk, relief rally with little follow through.

Energy stocks, ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) in particular, were responsible for roughly one half of the gains on the Dow Industrials, and there was concerted selling into the close, with stocks giving back about a third of the day's gains into the closing bell, a negative for trading conviction.

WTI crude oil closed above $110 a barrel for the first time since May, 2011, a direct result of the saber-rattling going on over Syria. Gold and silver took a breather, probably for some serious profit-taking, as the precious metals have been on a real tear over the past two weeks, bounding off their lows to make multi-month highs.

Volume was typically dismal, as is usually the case in August, especially the last week of the month, as were are witnessing.

News flow and economic data have been largely negative. Today's -1.3% downturn in pending home sales for July was another sign that the housing market continues to cool and may turn into a chill as the peak selling season is passing quickly.

Talk was centered on when the US would strike Syria, rather than "if," and how that might affect the Fed's decision over tapering bond purchases in September or delay it until tensions subside. Such banter is the stuff of markets, but largely foolish speculation and ignorant of the underlying trends in the economy, which are weak, at best, and slumping, at worst.

Overall, it was a nothing session, with most traders either on hold until a Syria assault becomes reality or on holiday until after Labor Day.

Gains were minimal and may prove to be fleeting.

Dow 14,824.51, +48.38 (0.33%)
NASDAQ 3,593.35, +14.83 (0.41%)
S&P 500 1,634.96, +4.48 (0.27%)
NYSE Composite 9,311.30, +23.19 (0.25%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,318,517,250
NYSE Volume 2,873,515,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3655-2890
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 59-88
WTI crude oil: 110.10, +1.09
Gold: 1,418.80, -1.40
Silver: 24.39, -0.26