America's Economy - and Society - is Grinding to a Halt

What a mess!

Stocks were down for the fifth consecutive session on Wednesday as congress fails to grasp the seriousness of any situation, be it the budget (substitue a continuing resolution), Obamacare (possibly the worst law ever passed) or the debt ceiling (due to run out of extraordinary measures by October 17, according to Treasury Secretary Jack Lew).

Meanwhile, the country does a slow burn; jobs aren't being created, business is stuck between bad choices and worse choices; governments - federal, state and local - can't make their budgets work.

Deflation has been taking hold in a rather large way, despite the best (wosrt) efforts by the Fed, through QE, to stimulate through inflation (another bad idea). There isn't any growth in manufacturing, the lifeblood of any economy, in the United States for thirty years. Our debts keep soaring. The Fed - and most other institutions - are failing the American people. Only the top 1% or maybe as little as 1/10 of the top 1% or as much as the top 10% are benefiting from centrally-planned economics.

There is no stock market, no price discovery mechanisms which can be reliably trusted, since the Fed now dominates all markets, from stocks to gold, silver, commodities, stocks and most especially, bonds, where the Federal Reserve is not only the buyer of last resort, they are also the first in line.

Obvious to anybody with an eye for such things, the recovery economics engineered over the past five years since the collapse of Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, Lehman Brothers and assorted collateral damages, are simply not working, yet the government, in cahoots with the Fed, continues to support and maintain the same policies.

Maybe it's time for a reset, a revolution, some kind of change, but the NSA monitors every movement of the American public, keeping public protest to an absolute minimum, in shades strangely reminiscent of pre-war Germany in the late 1930s. we are all at risk, from the poorest to the richest, yet the richest feel secure that they are entitled to, and thus, have more, enough to sustain themselves through any crisis.

They are wrong, as history calmly reassures; the fall of the Roman empire, the French Revolution being only the two most prominent examples of mass chaos.

In five more days the federal government faces a shutdown of "non-essential" services. In two weeks after that, without authority for more borrowing, the US government will legally default on some of its obligations. Of course, those less-well-connected will feel the pinch first, the insiders, later, though by forces beyond the ken of their limited imaginations.

Here at Money Daily, we do not espouse default, disorder and carnage because it is damaging to everyone, but especially to those least able to protect themselves against it, which would include probably 90% of the population. Take a look around. How many of your neighbors can manage their own gardens, feed themselves, grow from seed, if necessary? How about you, yourself?

Sadly, the American public is so poorly educated in basic survival skills such as farming, gardening, water and fuel management, health and safety that a catastrophic condition renders most of the population at very high risk of disease and death.

Is this the kind of world we imagined to leave to the next generation? The human race is so deficient in so many aspects that survival of the entire species is questionable. The problems are enormous, but most will go back to their TV sets and TV dinners, ignoring the threats which are all around them, hoping beyond hope that government - the same one that caused and foments many of the issues and problems we face - will be there to support them and save them.

Readers of this blog may call us alarmists, but the signs of collapse of the system - of all systems - are abundant, though normalcy bias and cognitive dissonance prevent most from any meaningful understanding.

We could be days away from a complete tearing of the social fabric. Are you prepared? Do you even care?

The race to the bottom is accelerating, and there are no winners.

Here's the latest edition of the Keiser Report, for a glimpse into the kind of world in which we live:



Dow 15,273.26, -61.33 (0.40%)
Nasdaq 3,761.10, -7.16 (0.19%)
S&P 500 1,692.77, -4.65 (0.27%)
10-Yr Bond 2.61%, -0.04
NYSE Volume 3,403,673,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,791,265,125
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3174-3322
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 258-38
WTI crude oil: 102.66, -0.47
Gold: 1,336.20, +19.90
Silver: 21.89, +0.30

Stocks Fail to Maintain QE Momentum; Dow Down Four Straight Sessions

After kicking up 148 points following the Fed's "no taper" announcement last Wednesday, it's been straight downhill for the venerable Dow Jones Industrials, even the addition of Goldman Sachs (GS), Visa (V) and Nike (NKE) to the mix unable to stem the outflow from the blue chip index.

The Dow has given back all of those gains and then some, falling for the fourth straight session on Tuesday with a 66.79-point loss after dropping 49 and change on Monday. The S&P followed the Dow to the downside, though not registering such a large percentage loss, while the NASDAQ continued to defy gravity - thanks largely to Apple (AAPL), up marginally on the day, though losing ground into the close.

What's troubling traders and the indices isn't by any means certain, though the about-face and duplicitous moves by the Fed certainly aren't helping. While chairman Ben Bernanke continually espouses openness and transparency, last week's decision to keep asset purchases at current levels was viewed by the street as opaque and insensitive to markets. A lot of people were short going into the FOMC meeting and came out losing their shirts, their covering of positions adding to the upward movement right after the announcement.

Also weighing heavily is the federal government's intransigence on doing anything constructive. Democrats and Republicans are at loggerheads over the budget (or, continuing resolution, as the case may be), Obamacare and the debt ceiling, issues which need to be urgently resolved lest the government become permanently the laughing stock of the world community.

With the Dow off by some 342 points over the last four days, one might suspect that smart money has already headed for safer ground, witness the rally in treasuries, especially the 10-year note, which has fallen precipitously from close to a 3% yield to stand at the end of today at a relatively tame and aesthetically-pleasing, 2.65%.

The government isn't about to work out its problems soon, with an October 1 deadline looming for a government shutdown, which looks more and more likely to occur. The politicians have used up whatever patience the American people have had, and now risk being completely distrusted by the populace as the gang of thugs and ignoramuses they are.

Wall Street may be beginning to awaken to the facts on the ground that the US economy is still in dire straits which are about to get progressively worse and the run on blue chip stocks is telling.

There are just four trading days left in the quarter and traders are, by nature, an impatient bunch, prone to distrust uncertainty. The rest of this week could be a real bloodbath because the politicians can't agree on anything at all.

Dow 15,334.59, -66.79 (0.43%)
Nasdaq 3,768.25, +2.97 (0.08%)
S&P 500 1,697.42, -4.42 (0.26%)
10-Yr Bond 2.65%, -0.06
NYSE Volume 3,480,190,750
Nasdaq Volume 1,731,125,375
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3563-2953
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 309-44
WTI crude oil: 103.13, -0.46
Gold: 1,316.30, -10.70
Silver: 21.59, -0.271

Dow Takes A Header on Realignment

It was a little like old times today. Back before there were supercomputers running the show, there used to be a term called, "late at the close," which signified the level of volume in the final frantic minutes of trading. Financial news announcers would say things like, "the tape was 12 minutes late at the close," meaning that the ticker tape that recorded trades ran past 4:00 pm due to the heavy volume.

Today, the Dow didn't settle out until well after ten minutes beyond the official close, due to the realignment. Bank of America, Hewlett Packard and Alcoa went out; Nike, Goldman Sachs and Visa went in.

It wasn't a fair exchange, and that had something to do with stocks closing at the lows of the day and the Dow outpacing the other averages to the negative. Bank of America is basically an insolvent holding company of the Fed, Hewlett Packard is a dead stock with limited upside potential and Alcoa is more or less nothing other than a proxy for the commodity price of aluminum.

The new entrants seem to have futures, though the addition of Goldman Sachs seems more sinister than anything else. After all, the company has been termed a "giant squid," because its tentacles reach into the netherworld recesses of business and politics.

Still stocks took a pretty good header today and prospects for the remainder of the month - just six more trading days - are not bright, since a government shutdown looms, Obamacare continues to move toward implementation and the complete catastrophe of the US health and labor markets and the country continues to spiral deeper into debt with a rancorous debate soon to come on raising the debt ceiling.

Nonetheless, the Fed has everyone's back, until, of course, they don't, at which time they will have the front, all sides and the keys to all of your property, real, personal and possibly intellectual, if they can strike a deal with Google, Yahoo, Amazon and the NSA.

The future is (fill in the blank... we're too afraid to).

And, BTW, when Warren Buffett says stocks are "fairly valued," it's time to sell, because that's what he's doing.

For the week:
Dow: +75.03
NASDAQ: +52.55
S&P 500: +21.92

Dow 15,451.09, -185.46 (1.19%)
Nasdaq 3,774.73, -14.66 (0.39%)
S&P 500 1,709.91, -12.43 (0.72%)
10-Yr Bond 2.73%, -0.02
NYSE Volume 5,065,868,500
Nasdaq Volume 2,335,355,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2339-4314
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 332-45
WTI crude oil: 104.67, -1.72
Gold: 1,332.50, -36.80
Silver: 21.93, -1.365

The Day After: Buyer's Remorse and the Tea Party Gambit

One day after the Fed did the unexpected - which really should have been expected, after all, since the Fed is so good at doing nothing - and kept its asset purchase program intact, stocks on Wall Street were shaken, not stirred, with the Dow and S&P posting modest losses and only the NASDAQ ahead at the close.

Since yesterday's post-announcement feeding frenzy was done at such a rapid pace, there was a feeling today that the party was great, but some may have overdone it, so positions were squared in front of tomorrow's quadruple-witching options expiry, locking in profits.

There was also a bit of nastiness coming out of Washington, DC, in the form of forty or so House Republicans promoting a bill that would fund the federal government, but only if a provision to defund the Affordable Care Act (ObamaCare) was included.

While that measure could survive a House vote, and well might, the chances of it making its way through the Senate are a different-striped animal altogether. And the chances of Obama signing it into law are absolutely zero.

If the House Republicans have their way, this stalemate could produce a partial shutdown of the federal government (please save your applause for the end of the performance) on October 1, which is just 12 days hence, so traders may have been taking a few chips off the table in advance of those ugly consequences.

Certain members of the House, known widely as Tea Partiers, would like to find a way to accomplish one of two goals: stopping ObamaCare before it is fully implemented, or, the more popular alternative, stopping the federal government from borrowing the Treasury into debt hell, a course which is already well-trodden. If the government cannot borrow any more, it stops the Federal Reserve's treasury purchases dead in its tracks and generally ends the economy as we know it, which, come to think of it, might be a brilliant idea, since the economy has strayed far from free market economics and is wholly controlled by the Federal Reserve and its vassals, the mega-bank primary dealers. Gains of all kind are generally flowing only to the top 3% or even the top 1% of the wealthiest Americans, with the rest of the populace nothing more than debt slaves.

If the Republicans in the House can stand their ground, force the government to pay its bills without further borrowing (a seeming impossibility), it could be the best thing that's happened in this country since Benny Goodman played Carnegie Hall in 1938, and that's a long time coming.

Sure, there will be dislocations and a massive depression, but on the other side would be prosperity and a more even playing field for entrepreneurs and citizens without the overarching dictates of an out-of-control oligarchy.

Sounds good, doesn't it? Let's see how this plays out, though nobody is betting that the House Tea Partiers could destroy the global economy with just one, grandiose, spectacular move.

Dow 15,636.55, -40.39 (0.26%)
Nasdaq 3,789.38, +5.74 (0.15%)
S&P 500 1,722.34, -3.18 (0.18%)
10-Yr Bond 2.75%, +0.04
NYSE Volume 4,047,428,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,742,718,375
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2837-3763
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 564-34
WTI crude oil: 106.39, -1.68
Gold: 1,366.20, -3.10
Silver: 23.10, -0.192

Surprise! Fed Ponzi Scheme Not Working, Will Continue

No change in asset (ha, ha, ha, ha) purchases.

The Fed is content to continue buying worthless paper with make-believe money they create out of thin air.

Sending this money mainly to the primary dealers via zero interest rate policy and repo actions, the dealers become free to speculate in whatever assets they believe worth pursuing, driving prices, in the main, higher.

The next magic trick is more difficult. These primary dealers are supposed to lend out their unallocated capital into the market, creating debt, which is, after all, the only goal of fractional reserve bankers.

Essentially, by changing nothing - even though the Fed hinted strongly that asset purchases would be "tapered" and the markets expected as much - the Fed is telling the world that their stimulus programs have not resulted in the expected results. Inflation remains below their desired threshold, unemployment remains stubbornly high and economic growth continues to be muted, the GDP, even with hedonic adjustments and recent additions, failing to achieve three percent annualized in any quarter since the collapse of 2008-09.

So, everything stays the same. The Fed keeps buying $45 billion of worthless government debt and $40 billion of even more destructive and toxic mortgage debt (toxic because price, or par, is at an excessive, unrealistic level) every month, in hopes that the combined markets which fuel the economy will continue to stumble forward.

Contemporary and classic theories of economics both say this kind of activity can lead to no good. Eventually all assets become overpriced in terms of a depreciating currency to the point at which the currency is no longer accepted in trade. Until the malinestments are purged from the system, normalcy in markets cannot occur, and guess who is holding most of the bad investments.

Central banks, particularly the Bank of England, the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BOJ) and, surpassing them all by levels of magnitude, the US Federal Reserve will end up holding most of the world's assets. Central banks are cornered without escape. They must keep devaluing their currencies in order to service burgeoning debt set against faulty assets. In terms of bubbles, the central banks of the developed nations are the world's greatest bubble and when that pops, there will be true freedom in economies, currencies, prices and price discovery. Not until.

More than anyone else, David Stockman has captured the essence of the current economic climate by use of the word "deformation." The global economy is deformed, distorted, obtuse and opaque. All price discovery mechanisms have been distorted out of recognition by the continuing debasement of currencies.

Even though nothing changed, markets behaved as if something had. Stocks roared to new highs on the Dow and S&P 500, but, here's the kicker: by percentage, hard assets were the most appreciated on the day. Commodities, particularly crude oil, gold and silver all outpaced stocks by multiples. Gold surged 4.5%, silver up 7.5%, crude gained a paltry 2.5%, making the sloppy one percent returns in stocks look like a piker's paradise.

The ramifications of today's Fed (in)action are monumental and trend-setting. So much so, that they cannot be easily disseminated and pursued in a single blog post, though they will have enduring effects, which Money Daily will continue to report upon in the days, weeks and months ahead.

Happy Hunting! Free Houses for Everybody!

Dow 15,676.94, +147.21 (0.95%)
Nasdaq 3,783.64, +37.94 (1.01%)
S&P 500 1,725.52, +20.76 (1.22%)
10-Yr Bond 2.71%, -0.14
NYSE Volume 4,410,661,500
Nasdaq Volume 1,769,496,125
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 5052-1648
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 565-51
WTI crude oil: 108.07, +2.65
Gold: 1,366.40, +58.80
Silver: 23.18, +1.616