In the Senate, the impeachment trial of President Trump is well underway, though some Senators are wondering how the House managers can keep up their opening statement for another 16 hours without being laughed out of the chamber.
Adam Schiff, Gerold Nadler and their associates dithered and danced around the same tired narrative that's been their staple for the past six months and nobody is really buying it. Perhaps that's why stocks slumped late in the day, due to overwhelming boredom.
Impeachment aside, stocks were off to a solid start on Wednesday, but failed to make much progress, with the Dow actually ending in the red after being up 124 points early in the session.
There are be a plethora of reasons to be selling stocks at this juncture, main among them valuation, but the continuing slowdown in global trade and potential for most of Europe to fall into a recession are probably the most "top of mind" as winter winds blow cold across the Northern Hemisphere.
Lowering its 2019 forecast (a little late) for the sixth straight time, the IMF dropped expectations for global growth to 2.9%, down 0.1 from it's previous 3.0% expectation. Most of the data is already in place. The IMF, like everyone else, is monitoring fourth quarter results from corporations around the world.
In what has to be regarded as somewhat on the cheeky side, the IMF also lowered its 2020 forecast, from 3.4% to 3.3%. It's ludicrous to believe that the amalgamated egoistic economists at the IMF can get any prediction right, especially one calling for improvement when the early evidence is clearly favoring decline. Within a few months, these brainiacs will be revising their crystal ball projections and tea leaf readings to something more aligned with reality.
Considering that the US, at least, is at the far end of an 11-year bull market, some slowdown would be expected and it's notable that the brain-dead at the IMF cannot fathom the declining birth rate effects of demographics in developed countries, most of which have fallen below replacement figures.
With cheerleaders like those at the IMF and the relentless money creation by the Fed, there's little wonder the rich get richer as fake predictions are afforded the most credence.
At some point, the Fed will stop printing or the dollar will hyper-inflate. At that point, the IMF can revise upward and still find itself woefully behind the curve.
At the Close, Wednesday, January 22, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 29,186.27, -9.77 (-0.03%)
NASDAQ: 9,383.77, +12.96 (+0.14%)
S&P 500: 3,321.75, +0.96 (+0.03%)
NYSE: 14,110.24, +0.26 (+0.00%)
Showing posts with label growth. Show all posts
Showing posts with label growth. Show all posts
Thursday, January 23, 2020
Tuesday, September 10, 2019
Stocks Flat; Britain Should Leave The EU ASAP
Markets - whatever is left of them - seemed to be running on fumes Monday, as no Trump tweets nor economic news were sufficient to move stocks in general either way.
This kind of quiet may be just what investors are seeking: less volatility, less media madness, a more sanguine environment and some degree of security and safety. With all the talk of recession, the past few months have spooked some of the more ardent longs, but the market is still not conducive to short trades in any form.
One could conclude from recent action that stocks will hold their ground and move to new highs, as has been the case throughout the run from 2009 (buy the dip philosophy), and with another 1/4 point rate cut from the Fed a sure thing next week, that is the likely trading strategy for the day-trader and short-termer. Long term investors should be seeking value or growth, best, a combination of the two. With interest rates so low, dividend-yielding stocks with long track records are the safest and surest, plus, many will survive well under difficult conditions, should a recession actually arrive.
Central banks still have control of markets, a condition that may persist for quite a long time. It should serve memory well to reconsider the aftermath of the 2008 crash, wherein central banks coordinated to save everything, even unworthy companies, from default.
This might be a prime time to move from passive to active investing, with individual stocks preferred over ETFs or mutuals. Expect some noisy ups and downs over the next few months, though the next major event is Brexit, with a hard-line, no-deal escape from the EU by Great Britain set for October 31 by Boris Johnson, the most recent Prime Minister of the country.
It's been more than three years since jolly ole' England voted to leave the EU. Parliamentarians and stubborn bureaucrats have delayed the wishes of the people for too long and the wait may soon be over. Anything short of England removing itself from the EU - without onerous conditions - will be very bad for markets. The hyperbole of the media and those on the "remain" side of the issue have played the hysterics card for all it's worth.
Time is up. Populism should prevail in England and the result of leaving the EU, while dramatic, does not have to be traumatic.
At the Close, Monday, September 9, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 26,835.51, +38.05 (+0.14%)
NASDAQ: 8,087.44, -15.64 (-0.19%)
S&P 500: 2,978.43, -0.28 (-0.01%)
NYSE Composite: 12,960.72, +27.34 (+0.21%)
This kind of quiet may be just what investors are seeking: less volatility, less media madness, a more sanguine environment and some degree of security and safety. With all the talk of recession, the past few months have spooked some of the more ardent longs, but the market is still not conducive to short trades in any form.
One could conclude from recent action that stocks will hold their ground and move to new highs, as has been the case throughout the run from 2009 (buy the dip philosophy), and with another 1/4 point rate cut from the Fed a sure thing next week, that is the likely trading strategy for the day-trader and short-termer. Long term investors should be seeking value or growth, best, a combination of the two. With interest rates so low, dividend-yielding stocks with long track records are the safest and surest, plus, many will survive well under difficult conditions, should a recession actually arrive.
Central banks still have control of markets, a condition that may persist for quite a long time. It should serve memory well to reconsider the aftermath of the 2008 crash, wherein central banks coordinated to save everything, even unworthy companies, from default.
This might be a prime time to move from passive to active investing, with individual stocks preferred over ETFs or mutuals. Expect some noisy ups and downs over the next few months, though the next major event is Brexit, with a hard-line, no-deal escape from the EU by Great Britain set for October 31 by Boris Johnson, the most recent Prime Minister of the country.
It's been more than three years since jolly ole' England voted to leave the EU. Parliamentarians and stubborn bureaucrats have delayed the wishes of the people for too long and the wait may soon be over. Anything short of England removing itself from the EU - without onerous conditions - will be very bad for markets. The hyperbole of the media and those on the "remain" side of the issue have played the hysterics card for all it's worth.
Time is up. Populism should prevail in England and the result of leaving the EU, while dramatic, does not have to be traumatic.
At the Close, Monday, September 9, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 26,835.51, +38.05 (+0.14%)
NASDAQ: 8,087.44, -15.64 (-0.19%)
S&P 500: 2,978.43, -0.28 (-0.01%)
NYSE Composite: 12,960.72, +27.34 (+0.21%)
Thursday, March 22, 2018
Fed Has Ventured Into Dangerous Territory With Most Recent Rate Hike
Whether Wednesday's 25 basis point hike in the federal funds rate will eventually become a seminal moment in economic history, only time will tell. On the surface, there are a good number of indications that the Fed, by increasing the overnight lending rate to 1.50-1.75%, may have finally blundered into a crucial policy error.
The hike being the sixth such rate increase of 0.25% in the past 27 months, the Federal Reserve has ventured into an area which has the potential to do more harm than good, as evidenced by the sudden turnabout in stocks after the rate decision was announced, and, more to the point, during Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's first press conference.
Stocks initially rose on the release, but gave back all of the gains, finally ending with complete capitulation as the trading day drew to a close, turning what was a brief 250-point gain into a lasting 45-point loss at the close.
What has equity investors puzzled and anguished is the Fed's insistence on their continued insistence on higher interest rates, despite economic data that shows quite clearly that inflation is nascent and growth largely a chimera, a construct of rose-colored projections of the general economy added to massive increases in government spending, which is, in the end, fully lacking in productive qualities.
Governors of the Federal Reserve, ensconced, as they are, within their cocoons of smug condescension, are either uninformed to the realities of life in the real world or purposely interpreting their trumped-up economic data as reflective of a booming economy.
The other possibility is that the Fed officials know that the economy - both domestic and global - is headed for recession, and they are preparing for the worst, employing the only tool they believe effective, the varying of interest rates with the intent to either slow lending and economic activity by raising them, or increase the same by lowering them.
Sadly, the Fed has the cart well out in front of the horse. Their rate increases will slow the economy, precisely at a time in which they should be doing nothing. Eventually, the Fed will have to reverse the direction of their myopic monetary monopoly, as the economy - which has been limping along at two percent growth or less for the past ten years - and lower rates, ushering in another era of mad money machinations, sending valuations of stocks out into the cosmos, while the public watches the explosion of wealth inequality soar to unimagined heights.
Besides the folly of raising rates in a weak economic environment, the Fed continues to preach that they are decreasing their massive balance sheet, rolling off their horde of somewhat dubious mortgage-backed securities and treasury bills, notes and bonds.
Having taken a path toward a rather rapid depletion of liquidity, Mr. Powell and his cohorts will soon find that themselves vilified and, with any hope, bankrupt.
Their continuing charade of being the "best and brightest" know-it-alls in the financial universe must come to an end soon, lest the entire global economic structure be collapsed into one giant heap of unplayable debt, impoverishing the world's billions of citizens while laying bare their own conceit, deceit, and utter depravity.
Dow Jones Industrial Average March Scorecard:
At the Close, Wednesday, March 21, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,682.31, -44.96 (-0.18%)
NASDAQ: 7,345.29, -19.02 (-0.26%)
S&P 500: 2,711.93, -5.01 (-0.18%)
NYSE Composite: 12,683.76, +20.12 (+0.16%)
The hike being the sixth such rate increase of 0.25% in the past 27 months, the Federal Reserve has ventured into an area which has the potential to do more harm than good, as evidenced by the sudden turnabout in stocks after the rate decision was announced, and, more to the point, during Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's first press conference.
Stocks initially rose on the release, but gave back all of the gains, finally ending with complete capitulation as the trading day drew to a close, turning what was a brief 250-point gain into a lasting 45-point loss at the close.
What has equity investors puzzled and anguished is the Fed's insistence on their continued insistence on higher interest rates, despite economic data that shows quite clearly that inflation is nascent and growth largely a chimera, a construct of rose-colored projections of the general economy added to massive increases in government spending, which is, in the end, fully lacking in productive qualities.
Governors of the Federal Reserve, ensconced, as they are, within their cocoons of smug condescension, are either uninformed to the realities of life in the real world or purposely interpreting their trumped-up economic data as reflective of a booming economy.
The other possibility is that the Fed officials know that the economy - both domestic and global - is headed for recession, and they are preparing for the worst, employing the only tool they believe effective, the varying of interest rates with the intent to either slow lending and economic activity by raising them, or increase the same by lowering them.
Sadly, the Fed has the cart well out in front of the horse. Their rate increases will slow the economy, precisely at a time in which they should be doing nothing. Eventually, the Fed will have to reverse the direction of their myopic monetary monopoly, as the economy - which has been limping along at two percent growth or less for the past ten years - and lower rates, ushering in another era of mad money machinations, sending valuations of stocks out into the cosmos, while the public watches the explosion of wealth inequality soar to unimagined heights.
Besides the folly of raising rates in a weak economic environment, the Fed continues to preach that they are decreasing their massive balance sheet, rolling off their horde of somewhat dubious mortgage-backed securities and treasury bills, notes and bonds.
Having taken a path toward a rather rapid depletion of liquidity, Mr. Powell and his cohorts will soon find that themselves vilified and, with any hope, bankrupt.
Their continuing charade of being the "best and brightest" know-it-alls in the financial universe must come to an end soon, lest the entire global economic structure be collapsed into one giant heap of unplayable debt, impoverishing the world's billions of citizens while laying bare their own conceit, deceit, and utter depravity.
Dow Jones Industrial Average March Scorecard:
| Date | Close | Gain/Loss | Cum. G/L |
| 3/1/18 | 24,608.98 | -420.22 | -420.22 |
| 3/2/18 | 24,538.06 | -70.92 | -491.14 |
| 3/5/18 | 24,874.76 | +336.70 | -154.44 |
| 3/6/18 | 24,884.12 | +9.36 | -145.08 |
| 3/7/18 | 24,801.36 | -82.76 | -227.84 |
| 3/8/18 | 24,895.21 | +93.85 | -133.99 |
| 3/9/18 | 25,335.74 | +440.53 | +306.54 |
| 3/12/18 | 25,178.61 | -157.13 | +149.41 |
| 3/13/18 | 25,007.03, | -171.58 | -22.17 |
| 3/14/18 | 24,758.12 | -248.91 | -271.08 |
| 3/15/18 | 24,873.66 | +115.54 | -155.54 |
| 3/16/18 | 24,946.51 | +72.85 | -82.69 |
| 3/19/18 | 24,610.91 | -335.60 | -418.29 |
| 3/20/18 | 24,727.27 | +116.36 | -301.93 |
| 3/21/18 | 24,682.31 | -44.96 | -346.89 |
At the Close, Wednesday, March 21, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,682.31, -44.96 (-0.18%)
NASDAQ: 7,345.29, -19.02 (-0.26%)
S&P 500: 2,711.93, -5.01 (-0.18%)
NYSE Composite: 12,683.76, +20.12 (+0.16%)
Monday, August 1, 2016
Tough Times For People Are Beginning To Appear
See-saw trading marked the first day of August, traditionally one of the quietest times for traders, so excuse your author for not offering a great deal of commentary as the "dog days" wear on through the hot month.
Stocks were up and down without direction. Japan's fiscal stimulus, largely expected to consist of some form of "helicopter money" (i.e., central bank largess via government spending and/or handouts), and, while there were some measures designed to prop up the poor and stimulate spending, it's more likely that - like everything else the BOJ has attempted the past 25 years - the plan will backfire because Japanese people are more concerned with squirreling away cash for rainy days than spending to keep the government promise of prosperity and growth.
It's the same all over the world. Governments and central banks have themselves painted into a not-so-agreeable corner, flanked by negative interest rates on one side, stagnant growth prospects on another, and a phalanx of QE, ficsal irresponsibility, crony capitalism, global income insecurity, and political instability dropping from the ceiling and oozing up through cracks in the floor.
While the political and business hoi poloi continue preaching the narrative of rosy economic successes, the average people have had enough of being lied to, cajoled and insulted by appeals by the financial authorities to their better interests, which, in truth are in nobody's good interest.
A couple of possible scenarios might emerge from the continuing diddling by the Fed and their crony central banker kin. One is that extreme lawlessness reigns, as laws are multiplied beyond the system's ability to prosecute them, or, political forces morph into ugly totalitarianism.
A good bet might be a hedge between the two, as both are already emerging in various forms, everywhere from dictatorships like the one evolving in Turkey, right down to the tin-horn generals at local levels who attempt to enforce zoning and municipal codes on wary citizens.
If there appears to be unease in every neighborhood, it's because below a calm surface is a boiling pot of anger, resentment, fear, and distrust.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,404.51, -27.73 (-0.15%)
NASDAQ
5,184.20, +22.06 (0.43%)
S&P 500
2,170.84, -2.76 (-0.13%)
NYSE Composite
10,730.20, -55.31 (-0.51%)
Stocks were up and down without direction. Japan's fiscal stimulus, largely expected to consist of some form of "helicopter money" (i.e., central bank largess via government spending and/or handouts), and, while there were some measures designed to prop up the poor and stimulate spending, it's more likely that - like everything else the BOJ has attempted the past 25 years - the plan will backfire because Japanese people are more concerned with squirreling away cash for rainy days than spending to keep the government promise of prosperity and growth.
It's the same all over the world. Governments and central banks have themselves painted into a not-so-agreeable corner, flanked by negative interest rates on one side, stagnant growth prospects on another, and a phalanx of QE, ficsal irresponsibility, crony capitalism, global income insecurity, and political instability dropping from the ceiling and oozing up through cracks in the floor.
While the political and business hoi poloi continue preaching the narrative of rosy economic successes, the average people have had enough of being lied to, cajoled and insulted by appeals by the financial authorities to their better interests, which, in truth are in nobody's good interest.
A couple of possible scenarios might emerge from the continuing diddling by the Fed and their crony central banker kin. One is that extreme lawlessness reigns, as laws are multiplied beyond the system's ability to prosecute them, or, political forces morph into ugly totalitarianism.
A good bet might be a hedge between the two, as both are already emerging in various forms, everywhere from dictatorships like the one evolving in Turkey, right down to the tin-horn generals at local levels who attempt to enforce zoning and municipal codes on wary citizens.
If there appears to be unease in every neighborhood, it's because below a calm surface is a boiling pot of anger, resentment, fear, and distrust.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,404.51, -27.73 (-0.15%)
NASDAQ
5,184.20, +22.06 (0.43%)
S&P 500
2,170.84, -2.76 (-0.13%)
NYSE Composite
10,730.20, -55.31 (-0.51%)
Friday, June 17, 2016
Yellen And Fed Fail; Market Confidence Fades; Stockman Is Right; 13 Weeks On Dow Range
It's Friday, it's summer, so this recap of the events of the day and the week will be as brief as possible.
First up, the weekend's required reading is David Stockman's Abolish the FOMC, bring back the green eyeshades, in which the former Director of the Office of Management and Budget (1981–1985) under President Ronald Reagan proposes an elegant yet simple solution to the current and ongoing tyranny of central bank incompetence.
In as few words as possible, Stockman proposes that the market set interest rates, pining for the halcyon days of true price discovery. The post is well worth twenty minutes of reading.
As for stocks, globally, the week was something of a disaster, with massive falls in Asia and Europe, though there was something of a rebound on Thursday. US indices struggled though the opacity of another FOMC policy decision (nothing) and fell into a funk on Thursday morning, with the Dow dipping below the magic 17,000 mark, but magically rallying for a noticeable gain for the day.
Friday was not so euphoric, with options expiration afoot (we suspect most of the big players cashed out on Thursday), though it was somewhat dramatic, as all three majors traded in the red the entire session. The Dow actually touched down just above 17,600, keeping the magical 500-point range (to 18,000 on the upside) intact for a thirteenth consecutive week.
This particular range-bound trading pattern does have a precedent, that being the 23-week span from February to early July of last year, when the blue chip index traded generally between 17,750 to 18,250, making an all-time high in the process (mid-May).
So, despite the two semi-corrections in August of 2015 and January of this year, the Dow has now settled into a regime just 250 points below the previous plateau. Welcome to the world of paper games.
Friday was simply get-away day, aided greatly by the NY Fed, which lowered its second and third quarter estimates for GDP growth to 2.1%, which is still probably too high. With that, unless the fourth quarter is gangbusters, along with the 0.7% rate of growth for GDP in the first quarter, it will be tough for GDP to hit the 2.0% target (that's a joke, right?) for this year.
Maybe the elections will trigger a change for 2017. Maybe not.
In any case, it's too far ahead to look. Brexit vote comes up Thursday, which could trigger fireworks, though some of the smart money is saying the vote will be for the UK to stay in the EU, and it will be rigged.
Happy hunting!
Friday's Fallout:
S&P 500: 2,071.22, -6.77 (0.33%)
Dow: 17,675.16, -57.94 (0.33%)
NASDAQ: 4,800.34, -44.58 (0.92%)
Crude Oil 48.07 +4.03% Gold 1,296.80 -0.12% EUR/USD 1.1279 +0.46% 10-Yr Bond 1.6180 +3.45% Corn 436.25 +2.59% Copper 2.05 +0.29% Silver 17.47 -0.78% Natural Gas 2.89 +1.16% Russell 2000 1,145.11 -0.27% VIX 19.28 -0.46% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4355 +1.03% USD/JPY 104.2060 -0.10%
For the week:
Dow: -190.31, (-1.07%)
S&P 500: -24.85 (-1.19%)
NASDAQ: -94.21 (-1.92%)
First up, the weekend's required reading is David Stockman's Abolish the FOMC, bring back the green eyeshades, in which the former Director of the Office of Management and Budget (1981–1985) under President Ronald Reagan proposes an elegant yet simple solution to the current and ongoing tyranny of central bank incompetence.
In as few words as possible, Stockman proposes that the market set interest rates, pining for the halcyon days of true price discovery. The post is well worth twenty minutes of reading.
As for stocks, globally, the week was something of a disaster, with massive falls in Asia and Europe, though there was something of a rebound on Thursday. US indices struggled though the opacity of another FOMC policy decision (nothing) and fell into a funk on Thursday morning, with the Dow dipping below the magic 17,000 mark, but magically rallying for a noticeable gain for the day.
Friday was not so euphoric, with options expiration afoot (we suspect most of the big players cashed out on Thursday), though it was somewhat dramatic, as all three majors traded in the red the entire session. The Dow actually touched down just above 17,600, keeping the magical 500-point range (to 18,000 on the upside) intact for a thirteenth consecutive week.
This particular range-bound trading pattern does have a precedent, that being the 23-week span from February to early July of last year, when the blue chip index traded generally between 17,750 to 18,250, making an all-time high in the process (mid-May).
So, despite the two semi-corrections in August of 2015 and January of this year, the Dow has now settled into a regime just 250 points below the previous plateau. Welcome to the world of paper games.
Friday was simply get-away day, aided greatly by the NY Fed, which lowered its second and third quarter estimates for GDP growth to 2.1%, which is still probably too high. With that, unless the fourth quarter is gangbusters, along with the 0.7% rate of growth for GDP in the first quarter, it will be tough for GDP to hit the 2.0% target (that's a joke, right?) for this year.
Maybe the elections will trigger a change for 2017. Maybe not.
In any case, it's too far ahead to look. Brexit vote comes up Thursday, which could trigger fireworks, though some of the smart money is saying the vote will be for the UK to stay in the EU, and it will be rigged.
Happy hunting!
Friday's Fallout:
S&P 500: 2,071.22, -6.77 (0.33%)
Dow: 17,675.16, -57.94 (0.33%)
NASDAQ: 4,800.34, -44.58 (0.92%)
Crude Oil 48.07 +4.03% Gold 1,296.80 -0.12% EUR/USD 1.1279 +0.46% 10-Yr Bond 1.6180 +3.45% Corn 436.25 +2.59% Copper 2.05 +0.29% Silver 17.47 -0.78% Natural Gas 2.89 +1.16% Russell 2000 1,145.11 -0.27% VIX 19.28 -0.46% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4355 +1.03% USD/JPY 104.2060 -0.10%
For the week:
Dow: -190.31, (-1.07%)
S&P 500: -24.85 (-1.19%)
NASDAQ: -94.21 (-1.92%)
Tuesday, April 12, 2016
Bad News Sends Stocks, Oil, Higher; Silver Outshines All
Stocks moved higher based on nothing other than an "informed diplomatic source" that said Russia and Saudi Arabia had agreed to freeze oil production. Along with stocks, oil futures moved notably higher, topping $41.50 a barrel.
The news was taken with so much enthusiasm that traders apparently forgot that there exists a worldwide glut of crude oil larger than any before it. They also disregarded obvious topping patterns in stocks and upcoming earnings reports, including those of the big banks which happen to be saddled with bad oil loans.
News that the IMF cut its global growth forecast for 2016 for the fourth time in a year, backing it off to 3.2%, was also disregarded, as was the US March budget deficit came in at double what it was last year, a whopping $108 billion.
In an unrelated move, silver continued its non-stop ascent, closing in New York at its highest price since late October of 2015, topping $16/ounce for the first time this year. The price of silver has risen more than 8% in the past week.
S&P 500: 2,061.72, +19.73 (0.97%)
Dow: 17,721.25, +164.84 (0.94%)
NASDAQ: 4,872.09, +38.69 (0.80%)
Crude Oil 41.56 +2.97% Gold 1,257.40 -0.05% EUR/USD 1.1390 -0.12% 10-Yr Bond 1.78 +3.31% Corn 361.25 +1.26% Copper 2.15 +2.85% Silver 16.22 +1.50% Natural Gas 2.02 +5.60% Russell 2000 1,105.71 +1.04% VIX 14.85 -8.67% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4269 +0.24% USD/JPY 108.5655 +0.57%
The news was taken with so much enthusiasm that traders apparently forgot that there exists a worldwide glut of crude oil larger than any before it. They also disregarded obvious topping patterns in stocks and upcoming earnings reports, including those of the big banks which happen to be saddled with bad oil loans.
News that the IMF cut its global growth forecast for 2016 for the fourth time in a year, backing it off to 3.2%, was also disregarded, as was the US March budget deficit came in at double what it was last year, a whopping $108 billion.
In an unrelated move, silver continued its non-stop ascent, closing in New York at its highest price since late October of 2015, topping $16/ounce for the first time this year. The price of silver has risen more than 8% in the past week.
S&P 500: 2,061.72, +19.73 (0.97%)
Dow: 17,721.25, +164.84 (0.94%)
NASDAQ: 4,872.09, +38.69 (0.80%)
Crude Oil 41.56 +2.97% Gold 1,257.40 -0.05% EUR/USD 1.1390 -0.12% 10-Yr Bond 1.78 +3.31% Corn 361.25 +1.26% Copper 2.15 +2.85% Silver 16.22 +1.50% Natural Gas 2.02 +5.60% Russell 2000 1,105.71 +1.04% VIX 14.85 -8.67% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4269 +0.24% USD/JPY 108.5655 +0.57%
Wednesday, September 25, 2013
America's Economy - and Society - is Grinding to a Halt
What a mess!
Stocks were down for the fifth consecutive session on Wednesday as congress fails to grasp the seriousness of any situation, be it the budget (substitue a continuing resolution), Obamacare (possibly the worst law ever passed) or the debt ceiling (due to run out of extraordinary measures by October 17, according to Treasury Secretary Jack Lew).
Meanwhile, the country does a slow burn; jobs aren't being created, business is stuck between bad choices and worse choices; governments - federal, state and local - can't make their budgets work.
Deflation has been taking hold in a rather large way, despite the best (wosrt) efforts by the Fed, through QE, to stimulate through inflation (another bad idea). There isn't any growth in manufacturing, the lifeblood of any economy, in the United States for thirty years. Our debts keep soaring. The Fed - and most other institutions - are failing the American people. Only the top 1% or maybe as little as 1/10 of the top 1% or as much as the top 10% are benefiting from centrally-planned economics.
There is no stock market, no price discovery mechanisms which can be reliably trusted, since the Fed now dominates all markets, from stocks to gold, silver, commodities, stocks and most especially, bonds, where the Federal Reserve is not only the buyer of last resort, they are also the first in line.
Obvious to anybody with an eye for such things, the recovery economics engineered over the past five years since the collapse of Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, Lehman Brothers and assorted collateral damages, are simply not working, yet the government, in cahoots with the Fed, continues to support and maintain the same policies.
Maybe it's time for a reset, a revolution, some kind of change, but the NSA monitors every movement of the American public, keeping public protest to an absolute minimum, in shades strangely reminiscent of pre-war Germany in the late 1930s. we are all at risk, from the poorest to the richest, yet the richest feel secure that they are entitled to, and thus, have more, enough to sustain themselves through any crisis.
They are wrong, as history calmly reassures; the fall of the Roman empire, the French Revolution being only the two most prominent examples of mass chaos.
In five more days the federal government faces a shutdown of "non-essential" services. In two weeks after that, without authority for more borrowing, the US government will legally default on some of its obligations. Of course, those less-well-connected will feel the pinch first, the insiders, later, though by forces beyond the ken of their limited imaginations.
Here at Money Daily, we do not espouse default, disorder and carnage because it is damaging to everyone, but especially to those least able to protect themselves against it, which would include probably 90% of the population. Take a look around. How many of your neighbors can manage their own gardens, feed themselves, grow from seed, if necessary? How about you, yourself?
Sadly, the American public is so poorly educated in basic survival skills such as farming, gardening, water and fuel management, health and safety that a catastrophic condition renders most of the population at very high risk of disease and death.
Is this the kind of world we imagined to leave to the next generation? The human race is so deficient in so many aspects that survival of the entire species is questionable. The problems are enormous, but most will go back to their TV sets and TV dinners, ignoring the threats which are all around them, hoping beyond hope that government - the same one that caused and foments many of the issues and problems we face - will be there to support them and save them.
Readers of this blog may call us alarmists, but the signs of collapse of the system - of all systems - are abundant, though normalcy bias and cognitive dissonance prevent most from any meaningful understanding.
We could be days away from a complete tearing of the social fabric. Are you prepared? Do you even care?
The race to the bottom is accelerating, and there are no winners.
Here's the latest edition of the Keiser Report, for a glimpse into the kind of world in which we live:
Dow 15,273.26, -61.33 (0.40%)
Nasdaq 3,761.10, -7.16 (0.19%)
S&P 500 1,692.77, -4.65 (0.27%)
10-Yr Bond 2.61%, -0.04
NYSE Volume 3,403,673,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,791,265,125
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3174-3322
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 258-38
WTI crude oil: 102.66, -0.47
Gold: 1,336.20, +19.90
Silver: 21.89, +0.30
Stocks were down for the fifth consecutive session on Wednesday as congress fails to grasp the seriousness of any situation, be it the budget (substitue a continuing resolution), Obamacare (possibly the worst law ever passed) or the debt ceiling (due to run out of extraordinary measures by October 17, according to Treasury Secretary Jack Lew).
Meanwhile, the country does a slow burn; jobs aren't being created, business is stuck between bad choices and worse choices; governments - federal, state and local - can't make their budgets work.
Deflation has been taking hold in a rather large way, despite the best (wosrt) efforts by the Fed, through QE, to stimulate through inflation (another bad idea). There isn't any growth in manufacturing, the lifeblood of any economy, in the United States for thirty years. Our debts keep soaring. The Fed - and most other institutions - are failing the American people. Only the top 1% or maybe as little as 1/10 of the top 1% or as much as the top 10% are benefiting from centrally-planned economics.There is no stock market, no price discovery mechanisms which can be reliably trusted, since the Fed now dominates all markets, from stocks to gold, silver, commodities, stocks and most especially, bonds, where the Federal Reserve is not only the buyer of last resort, they are also the first in line.
Obvious to anybody with an eye for such things, the recovery economics engineered over the past five years since the collapse of Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, Lehman Brothers and assorted collateral damages, are simply not working, yet the government, in cahoots with the Fed, continues to support and maintain the same policies.
Maybe it's time for a reset, a revolution, some kind of change, but the NSA monitors every movement of the American public, keeping public protest to an absolute minimum, in shades strangely reminiscent of pre-war Germany in the late 1930s. we are all at risk, from the poorest to the richest, yet the richest feel secure that they are entitled to, and thus, have more, enough to sustain themselves through any crisis.
They are wrong, as history calmly reassures; the fall of the Roman empire, the French Revolution being only the two most prominent examples of mass chaos.
In five more days the federal government faces a shutdown of "non-essential" services. In two weeks after that, without authority for more borrowing, the US government will legally default on some of its obligations. Of course, those less-well-connected will feel the pinch first, the insiders, later, though by forces beyond the ken of their limited imaginations.
Here at Money Daily, we do not espouse default, disorder and carnage because it is damaging to everyone, but especially to those least able to protect themselves against it, which would include probably 90% of the population. Take a look around. How many of your neighbors can manage their own gardens, feed themselves, grow from seed, if necessary? How about you, yourself?
Sadly, the American public is so poorly educated in basic survival skills such as farming, gardening, water and fuel management, health and safety that a catastrophic condition renders most of the population at very high risk of disease and death.
Is this the kind of world we imagined to leave to the next generation? The human race is so deficient in so many aspects that survival of the entire species is questionable. The problems are enormous, but most will go back to their TV sets and TV dinners, ignoring the threats which are all around them, hoping beyond hope that government - the same one that caused and foments many of the issues and problems we face - will be there to support them and save them.
Readers of this blog may call us alarmists, but the signs of collapse of the system - of all systems - are abundant, though normalcy bias and cognitive dissonance prevent most from any meaningful understanding.
We could be days away from a complete tearing of the social fabric. Are you prepared? Do you even care?
The race to the bottom is accelerating, and there are no winners.
Here's the latest edition of the Keiser Report, for a glimpse into the kind of world in which we live:
Dow 15,273.26, -61.33 (0.40%)
Nasdaq 3,761.10, -7.16 (0.19%)
S&P 500 1,692.77, -4.65 (0.27%)
10-Yr Bond 2.61%, -0.04
NYSE Volume 3,403,673,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,791,265,125
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3174-3322
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 258-38
WTI crude oil: 102.66, -0.47
Gold: 1,336.20, +19.90
Silver: 21.89, +0.30
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
