Wall Street Pouts Despite Twitter IPO; Jobs Data on Deck

Busy day today for the gods of greed, buyers of bluster, falcons of fraud, purveyors of prevarication.

Wall Street was all a-twitter over the IPO of Twitter (TWTR), the latest Web 2.0 mega-fad company gone public, which opened today on the NYSE with a bang. The stock was issued at 26, but opened at 44, quickly ramped up above 50 per share and closed at 44.90, good for a 78% gain. The company - based on "tweets" of 140 characters - is valued at about 29 times sales, pretty rich, especially for a enterprise that's still losing money. Well, at least the founders are now billionaires... on paper.

Prior to the opening bell, there was a flurry of activity from across the Atlantic pond, as Europe's Mario Draghi, ECB president extraordinaire, announced key rate cuts of 25 basis points, leaving the base rate at .25 and the key lending rate at .50. Observers in America wondered what took the Euros so long, though one must consider that they have been in the business of wrecking their own economies and fleecing the public a lot longer than their American counterparts, so they can kick the old can-can a lot longer and down an even shorter road without causing much of a stir.

The response from traders across the continent and in the UK was resoundingly mixed, with the German DAX higher, Britain's FTSE lower and the French CAC-40 barely changed. Don't these people understand the concept of cheap money? Pikers, the lot of them, except, of course, for the stodgy, stingy, and oh-so-proper Germans.

At 8:30 am ET, the US blasted off a couple of economic indicators, releasing the first reading on third quarter GDP at a robust 2.8%, a ribald lie if ever there was one, but enough to scare the few remaining hairs off the head of Lloyd Blankfien and others of his balding ilk. Good news is once again bad news, it appears, and any growth approaching three percent in the US sends shivers up the spineless bankers' backs, because they believe their buddies, Mr. Bernanke and the incoming Mr. Yellen, may cease the easy money programs that has catapulted every dishonest banker into ever-higher tax brackets.

The most recent initial unemployment claims - which were down 9,000 from the previous week, at 336,000, remained stubbornly high, though apparently not quite high enough for the barons of buyouts. These dopes saw this as another sign of a strengthening US economy, so, shortly after the opening bell, stocks did an abrupt about-face and trended lower throughout the session, with little respite.

In other news, Goldman Sachs is under investigation for rigging foreign exchange (FOREX) trading and just about everything else they do, and, yesterday, the Blackstone Group began pitching its rent-backed securities.

Really. They did. And some people actually bought them.

The advance-decline line cratered, with losers leading gainers by a 7:2 ratio, and new lows continue to close the gap on daily new highs, a trend metric that may just flip over if today's losses are indeed presaging something un-funny about tomorrow's delayed October non-farm jobs data, due out an hour before the opening bell. The way to read this is that the government is likely to report that something in the range of 120-150,000 new jobs were created during the month, which would be more proof of economic improvement, exactly what the market doesn't want. Either that, or it's going to be a real stink-bomb, because the forecast is only for 100,000.

Business as usual, my friends. Monkey business, that is.

Dow 15,593.98, -152.90 (0.97%)
Nasdaq 3,857.33, -74.61 (1.90%)
S&P 500 1,747.15, -23.34 (1.32%)
10-Yr Bond 2.61%, -0.03
NYSE Volume 4,092,416,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,196,542,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1276-4371
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 197-101
WTI crude oil: 94.20, -0.60
Gold: 1,308.50, -9.30
Silver: 21.66, -0.111
Corn: 420.50, -0.75

Wall Street Weirdness as Dow Makes New Record, NASDAQ Falls

Maybe it's the weather, but investor taste for speculation may be turning, just a day before the hoopla over the Twitter IPO is set to take place. The 142-character internet darling will open tomorrow at a very overpriced $27-30 per share. It could be that some big players in the tech investing (gambling) space just freed up money to get into the hottest IPO since... um, Facebook, though the memory of that magnificent failure is still fresh.

Still, winners just barely edged losers on the day, while the place to be in Dow stocks was in Chevron (CVX), IBM (IBM) and Microsoft (MSFT), an odd grouping there.

The MBA Mortgage Index slumped sadly prior to the open, with weekly applications off seven percent, even as 30-year rates fell to 4.32%.

Crude inventories showed only a modest uptick, which helped oil stage a rally off of five-month lows.

With bond yields settling lower, gold and silver up moderately, it was very tough to get a read on the overall market. Corn made fresh 52-week lows, which is bearish for beef, but bullish for carnivores in general, with beef prices stable and possibly set to decline. Overall, however, falling corn prices is about as good a deflation indicator as one can find, especially priced in silver.

Steady as she goes, though, especially on those safety plays in the Dow, which should consider to out-perform in a flight to dividend comfort.

Tweet that.

Dow 15,746.88, +128.66 (0.82%)
Nasdaq 3,931.95, -7.92 (0.20%)
S&P 500 1,770.49, +7.52 (0.43%)
10-Yr Bond 2.64%, -0.02
NYSE Volume 3,298,818,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,989,898,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2851-2753
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 317-79
WTI crude oil: 94.80, +1.43
Gold: 1,317.80, +9.70
Silver: 21.77, +0.132
Corn: 421.25, -3.75

Stocks Split in Sloppy Session; Bond Yields Rising, Oil Sliding

Stocks slid at the opening bell, with the Dow down by as many as 117 points in the first half hour of trading, but quickly reversed direction at 10:00 am EST and continued a slow but steady gain the rest of the day.

Apparently, what turned stocks around was the October ISM Services reading, which came in at a solid 55.4, a full pint better than last month's data and a huge beat to the expected 54.0.

While questions concerning the veracity of these kinds of reports after the unusually-strong Chicago PMI data a week ago continue to swirl around, the beat on services - which is now the main production engine of the US, since we've hollowed out our manufacturing core and mostly export inflation - was enough for the Wall Street crowd to lift stocks off their lows.

That they were able to keep buying interest maintained for the remainder of the session was likely due to the usual POMO injection by the Fed, allowing for rampant speculation and unusually-high leverage.

While stocks were seeing the light of day - though the NASDAQ never quite made it into positive territory, bonds were getting slammed, up six bips in yield by the end of the day, as the gains following the end of the government shutdown are gradually being eroded. The closing level of 2.66% on the 10-year note was the highest in two-and-a-half weeks.

The big story happens to be in oil, which continues its retreat from $110/barrel highs just two months ago. Another $5.00 drop in the price of WTI will put oil into a bear market, a condition nobody has considered. While low oil prices relate positively to gas at the pump and is a boost for the economy, releasing more purchasing power, the underlying causes may be more nefarious and significant.

There is, at last, a supply-demand condition that is positive for the US, as more and more oil is being produced in North America, at the same time that demand is dwindling, or rather, has been dwindling for the past three to four years. Americans have tightened their collective belts and are much more careful about their driving habits these days, as lowered incomes have left less for transportation expenses. High unemployment also pays a part, as fewer people are driving to work five or six days a week.

So, while a period of lower gas prices is cause for celebration, the party may not be of the epic variety, with fewer participants and an overhang of disappointing economic circumstances.

Key numbers to watch tomorrow will be the MBA Mortgage Index (7:00 am), September Leading Indicators (10:00 am) and crude inventories (10:30 am).

Dow 15,618.22, -20.90 (0.13%)
Nasdaq 3,939.86, +3.27 (0.08%)
S&P 500 1,762.97, -4.96 (0.28%)
10-Yr Bond 2.66%, +0.06
NYSE Volume 3,485,473,500
Nasdaq Volume 1,899,388,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2064-3571
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 248-74
WTI crude oil: 93.37, -1.25
Gold: 1,308.10, -6.60
Silver: 21.64, 0.064
Corn: 425.00, -1.25

Stocks Advance in Dull Session

Really, really dull session.

Dow 15,639.12, +23.57 (0.15%)
Nasdaq 3,936.59, +14.55 (0.37%)
S&P 500 1,767.93, +6.29 (0.36%)
10-Yr Bond 2.60%, -0.02
NYSE Volume 3,188,967,750
Nasdaq Volume 1,777,975,875
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3720-1864
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 245-50
WTI crude oil: 94.62, +0.01
Gold: 1,314.70, +1.50
Silver: 21.70, -0.137
Corn: 426.25, -1.00

Stocks Up, Commodities Down; Oil Crashing

Stocks, bonds, up. Oil, gold, silver, corn, down.

WTI crude is at its lowest level since June, down $15/barrel since early September, technically in a correction. Another 6% decline in crude (about $5.60) will put crude into a bear market, which will be great for consumers.

Economy still incredibly weak, despite close to all-time highs on major indices.

Dow 15,615.55, +69.80 (0.45%)
Nasdaq 3,922.04, +2.34 (0.06%)
S&P 500 1,761.64, +5.10 (0.29%)
10-Yr Bond 2.62%, +0.08
NYSE Volume 3,703,160,500
Nasdaq Volume 1,917,590,125
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2439-3166
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 178-65 (gap closing)
WTI crude oil: 94.61, -1.77
Gold: 1,313.20, -10.50
Silver: 21.84, -0.03
Corn: 427.25, -1.00