Spurred by an announcement by Moderna (MRNA) that early trials of a possible COVID-19 vaccine were positive, stocks rode a big Monday rally to better than three percent gains across the major indices. All but the NYSE Composite closed at 11-week highs, the Comp. falling just points short.
The irony of the rally was that Moderna, a company that has never made a single dime of profit (they've lost $1.5 billion since 2016), closed last Friday at 66.68, finished Monday at an even $80 per share, but closed out the week at 69.00. In between, there were some big paydays for insiders. If that wasn't proof enough that the market is a crony capitalist playground, then something's wrong with people's world views.
It was the ultimate slap in the face to the American public by the rich and connected, the one-percenters, who made a show of fake news over something ultimately immaterial. It was a very sad display of fascism in practice.
To make matters even worse, Moderna received up to $483 million in federal funding to accelerate development of its coronavirus vaccine. Governments around the world are throwing money at well-heeled companies working on a vaccine. In the United States, the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), a federal agency that funds disease-fighting technology, has announced investments of nearly $1 billion to support coronavirus vaccine development and the scale-up of manufacturing for promising candidates. Johnson and Johnson, Sanofi, and GlaxoSmithKline are among about 100 companies being funded for research toward a coronavirus vaccine by countries from Canada, to Singapore, to France.
The US government committed up to $1.2 billion to fund Oxford University and drug maker, AstraZeneca, in a race to produce a vaccine by October, it was announced on Friday.
The quickest a vaccine has ever been developed is four years from phase one trials to working vaccine on the market. No vaccine for a coronavirus has ever been successfully developed. SARS and MERS are variants of coronaviruses. There are no vaccines to protect against them.
This is just the common folly of the age in which we live. Instead of spending time explaining to people how to strengthen their individual immune systems - the best defense against all diseases and viruses - world governments spend taxpayer dollars funding companies that don't need any extra money. It's an incredible waste of capital, but you can bet the executives of the Big Pharma companies (one of Washington's biggest lobbying groups) and high-ranking scientists are making bank on your dollar.
Meanwhile, back in the real world, the "official" unemployment figure is 14.7%, with more than 36 million Americans out of work. Wall Street continues to party while Main Street gets the shaft, as usual. Lockdowns and social distancing restrictions have blown a hole in small businesses, many of which will never recover and will be bankrupt within months, if not already.
Malls are going broke. The biggest mall in the country, Minnesota's Mall of America, is two months delinquent on it's $1.4 billion loan. Other mall landlords report collecting less than 25% of rent due from April and May. With June approaching quickly, many retailers will be three months behind on rent payments and subject to lockouts, forced liquidations, and other draconian measures written into their leases.
Bankruptcies are mounting and delinquency notices are flying around everywhere. With retail operations - from clothing stores to hair salons to baseball card shops and everything in between - suffering as a result of the nearly nationwide two-month lockdown, many employees who were furloughed will not have jobs to go back to when everything begins to get back to some semblance of normal. That means extended unemployment for millions, poverty and homelessness set to soar.
The federal government's additional $600 a week in unemployment benefits via the CARES act will run out at the end of July, just in time for back-to-school sales that may not happen because some schools won't be reopening and many colleges are planning to allow only limited on-campus activity, with many classes offered via the internet only.
The world has changed, and is changing, though it doesn't appear to be for the better, at least at first blush.
Gold and silver caught bids on the paper markets this week with gold trading as high as $1756.90 per ounce, closing out at $1732.70 bid. Silver was an even better performer, ripping through the $17 per ounce price on Monday, trading as high as $17.57 per ounce before settling in at $17.19 on Friday.
In the physical market, premiums have begun to ease after an incredible supply-demand tug-of-war. Dealers are still facing shortages of certain items, but on eBay, at least, prices were lower for the week, although still well above spot prices.
Here are the most recent prices (Sunday, May 24) for specific items on eBay:
Item / Low / High / Average / Median
1 oz silver coin / 22.74 / 38.98 / 30.72 / 29.60
1 oz silver bar / 25.45 / 39.50 / 29.84 / 26.98
1 oz gold coin / 1,855.00 / 1,985.00 / 1,894.48 / 1,894.27
1 oz gold bar / 1,839.93 / 1,987.95 / 1,869.38 / 1,855.52
Oil was up, treasuries were fairly flat for the week. It's a beautiful holiday weekend, so we're calling this a wrap, right here.
Get out and get some sun!
At the Close, Friday, May 22, 2020:
Dow: 24,465.16, -8.94 (-0.04%)
NASDAQ: 9,324.59, +39.71 (+0.43%)
S&P 500: 2,955.45, +6.94 (+0.24%)
NYSE: 11,331.97, -19.63 (-0.17%)
For the Week:
Dow: +779.74 (+3.29%)
NASDAQ: +310.03 (+3.44%)
S&P 500: +91.75 (+3.20%)
NYSE: +384.65 (+3.51%)
Showing posts with label NYSE. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NYSE. Show all posts
Sunday, May 24, 2020
Wednesday, April 8, 2020
Turnaround Tuesday Wipes Out Massive Stock Gains; Oil Lower; Gold and Silver Nearly Unobtainable
Turnaround Tuesday certainly lived up to its advance billing as stocks performed a midday about-face, giving up expansive gains - the Dow gave up over 900 points from its intraday peak - to end near the flatline, only the NYSE Composite finishing in the black.
With a massive gap up at the open, equities were riding the crest of Monday's monstrous wave of buying, on the false hope that the worst of the coronavirus pandemic was behind them. At 11:25 am ET, when New York City announced its death toll for the prior day as the highest one-day total to date with 731 fresh corpses, bringing the state total number of coronavirus fatalities to 5,489, surpassing those lost on 9/11, a wave of gloom descended on Wall Street and in trading offices worldwide. Once the news circulated, stocks embarked upon an afternoon of desperate selling.
Whatever it is that fuels the animal spirits of the investor class, it is misplaced and widely mis-pricing stocks presently, and has been for much of the past 11 years. Now that stock buybacks are no longer going to spike the punch in lower Manhattan, the Fed has stepped in with a variety show of programs and debt options, none of which will eventually be proven sufficient to stem the coming tide of lowered expectations, defaults, earnings misses and downright deplorable economic data.
All the Fed is doing is throwing more bad money atop a raging fire. They cannot print enough money globally to stop the coming self-inflicted Greater Depression, though they will surely blame everything on COVID-19, the convenient scapegoat.
Now that stocks have briefly recovered from the March selloff, all of the programs brought to light by the Federal Reserve will be viewed skeptically, as real values make their return to the former fantasy world of finance. Instead of the Dow resting comfortably above 22,000, the true value, when all is said and done will be much closer to 12,000 and likely far lower.
At current levels, the major indices are still higher than they were in 2007, before the Great Financial Crisis nearly wiped out the global economy. The ongoing crisis will assure that everybody loses, particularly the Baby Boomer generation, which was forced into stocks by the Fed's insistence on interest rates near zero for almost all of the current century.
Portfolios which were valued as retirement savings are going up in smoke and they will continue to do so as the crisis and antecedent solutions tear to shreds the dreams and aspirations of the enormous, aging generation. Unless one has already departed the stock market, anticipated losses will be catastrophic.
Elsewhere, bond yields ticked slightly higher on Tuesday. Gold and silver remain in a nascent bull market, as a global scramble for precious metals has left major dealers with dwindling or already depleted stock. Spot and futures prices are diverging in gold, but that's not even the real story, as premiums are going through the roof for gold and silver bars and coins. If one is fortunate enough to find a dealer with goods for sale, wait times for delivery are now averaging a month for silver in quantity, and five to 10 days for gold.
In times of panic, precious metals are desirous as a hedge against catastrophic circumstance, but, already, many have arrived at the decision to acquire such stock too late as prices have become unaffordable and physical delivery unobtainable.
On the oil front, the spasm of price hikes from last week has faded badly, with WTI crude down again, backing into a $24 handle per barrel. As they say in the trade, it's a fluid situation.
Finally, and this is not to be taken lightly, an astute commentator on a popular financial website posted the following cryptic message:
At the Close, Tuesday, April 7, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 22,653.86, -26.13 (-0.12%)
NASDAQ: 7,887.26, -25.98 (-0.33%)
S&P 500: 2,659.41, -4.27 (-0.16%)
NYSE: 10,537.04, +21.80 (+0.21%)
With a massive gap up at the open, equities were riding the crest of Monday's monstrous wave of buying, on the false hope that the worst of the coronavirus pandemic was behind them. At 11:25 am ET, when New York City announced its death toll for the prior day as the highest one-day total to date with 731 fresh corpses, bringing the state total number of coronavirus fatalities to 5,489, surpassing those lost on 9/11, a wave of gloom descended on Wall Street and in trading offices worldwide. Once the news circulated, stocks embarked upon an afternoon of desperate selling.
Whatever it is that fuels the animal spirits of the investor class, it is misplaced and widely mis-pricing stocks presently, and has been for much of the past 11 years. Now that stock buybacks are no longer going to spike the punch in lower Manhattan, the Fed has stepped in with a variety show of programs and debt options, none of which will eventually be proven sufficient to stem the coming tide of lowered expectations, defaults, earnings misses and downright deplorable economic data.
All the Fed is doing is throwing more bad money atop a raging fire. They cannot print enough money globally to stop the coming self-inflicted Greater Depression, though they will surely blame everything on COVID-19, the convenient scapegoat.
Now that stocks have briefly recovered from the March selloff, all of the programs brought to light by the Federal Reserve will be viewed skeptically, as real values make their return to the former fantasy world of finance. Instead of the Dow resting comfortably above 22,000, the true value, when all is said and done will be much closer to 12,000 and likely far lower.
At current levels, the major indices are still higher than they were in 2007, before the Great Financial Crisis nearly wiped out the global economy. The ongoing crisis will assure that everybody loses, particularly the Baby Boomer generation, which was forced into stocks by the Fed's insistence on interest rates near zero for almost all of the current century.
Portfolios which were valued as retirement savings are going up in smoke and they will continue to do so as the crisis and antecedent solutions tear to shreds the dreams and aspirations of the enormous, aging generation. Unless one has already departed the stock market, anticipated losses will be catastrophic.
Elsewhere, bond yields ticked slightly higher on Tuesday. Gold and silver remain in a nascent bull market, as a global scramble for precious metals has left major dealers with dwindling or already depleted stock. Spot and futures prices are diverging in gold, but that's not even the real story, as premiums are going through the roof for gold and silver bars and coins. If one is fortunate enough to find a dealer with goods for sale, wait times for delivery are now averaging a month for silver in quantity, and five to 10 days for gold.
In times of panic, precious metals are desirous as a hedge against catastrophic circumstance, but, already, many have arrived at the decision to acquire such stock too late as prices have become unaffordable and physical delivery unobtainable.
On the oil front, the spasm of price hikes from last week has faded badly, with WTI crude down again, backing into a $24 handle per barrel. As they say in the trade, it's a fluid situation.
Finally, and this is not to be taken lightly, an astute commentator on a popular financial website posted the following cryptic message:
I don't think any bankers will go to jail, but I assure you they will meet with other, more horrible circumstances as this all plays out.
Citi, BofA, JPM Chase, Wells, Goldman Sachs, and others are all underwater, have already been bailed out (for the past 11 years), and will soon be insolvent when millions of Americans (and a host of foreigners) default on credit cards, car loans and leases, commercial leases, student loans, personal loans, business loans, and more.
There are a lot of biblical posters around here who quote Revelations and such, but they are off the mark. Judgement Day for the major commercial banks was delayed in 2008-09, but, when the full temper of anger from the American public is released - and that is not far off - their branches will be firebombed, their insurance cancelled, their stocks worth less than zero.
They've had it coming and whether they've calculated the enormity of unintended consequences or not, they're going to get skewered for good.
It will be a feast like no other, and a jubilee.
At the Close, Tuesday, April 7, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 22,653.86, -26.13 (-0.12%)
NASDAQ: 7,887.26, -25.98 (-0.33%)
S&P 500: 2,659.41, -4.27 (-0.16%)
NYSE: 10,537.04, +21.80 (+0.21%)
Wednesday, February 12, 2020
Wall Street Plays Wait-and-See On Coronavirus (WuHan Flu)
Without a source more trustworthy than the Communist Party of China (CPC) for accurate data on the coronavirus (Wuhan Flu), it's difficult to make an assessment of the threat from the disease which has spread to 25 countries and two cruise ships, but has so far resulted in only 517 confirmed cases and two deaths, one in Hong Kong and another in the Philippines.
Inside mainland China, it's apparently a different story, what with 44,685 confirmed cases and 1114 deaths, the government is trying to maintain the people's spirit, but, with something on the order of 400 million people under quarantine orders, theres little doubt that patience is wearing thin.
Wall Street has, for the most part, faded the fallout from the virus's effect on China's economy and its part in the global supply chain until yesterday, when stocks slumped after an initial upside burst, leaving the Dow on the downside and the other indices hanging onto marginal gains. Notable was the NYSE, which led all the averages percentage-wise, an outlier occurrence, and possibly the beginning of a shift into small cap stocks.
Commodities were flat, with gold and silver barely budging from unchanged and oil settling around the $50 mark for WTI crude.
US treasuries escaped from inversion, with the 10-year note finishing at 1.59% yield and bills with maturities of less than a year all lower than that, albeit by only a few basis points. The 30-year bond is sitting precariously on a yield of just 2.05%.
China, notorious for supplying information that is either corrupted, massaged, or goal-sought to the pleasure of the Party, is difficult to gauge in terms of what it's telling the rest of the world. Are there 1100 dead from the virus or 11,000? Have over 4000 recovered, or more, or less? And what were the treatments involved?
None of this information is readily available as China is keeping a tight lid on the details. One thing is for sure: plants that were closed first because of the Lunar New Year holiday and had their closures extended by the threat of the virus are still closed, even though many were supposed to reopen on Monday, February 10. That's a worry Wall Street cannot overlook for long. With companies supplying component parts from everything from automobiles to washing machines, the effect of their closure will be felt up the chain. Car-makers outside of China, Nissan, Tesla, Kia, and others have already announced plant closures due to supply disruption. The longer the Chinese factories remain shuttered, the worse it is not only for the Chinese economy, but the global condition as well.
The overarching theme from the public start of the virus in early January to today has been one of questions about the virulence of the virus, the length of its incubation, the mortality rates. These questions have been answered in roundabout manners, but the big one, where does this all end? remains a mystery. China says the spread of the virus is slowing; the WHO says a global heightening of risk is on the horizon.
For the time being, everybody is playing a wait-and-see game.
At the Close, Tuesday, February 11, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 29,276.34, -0.48 (-0.00%)
NASDAQ: 9,638.94, +10.55 (+0.11%)
S&P 500: 3,357.75, +5.66 (+0.17%)
NYSE: 14,054.08, +69.60 (+0.50%)
Inside mainland China, it's apparently a different story, what with 44,685 confirmed cases and 1114 deaths, the government is trying to maintain the people's spirit, but, with something on the order of 400 million people under quarantine orders, theres little doubt that patience is wearing thin.
Wall Street has, for the most part, faded the fallout from the virus's effect on China's economy and its part in the global supply chain until yesterday, when stocks slumped after an initial upside burst, leaving the Dow on the downside and the other indices hanging onto marginal gains. Notable was the NYSE, which led all the averages percentage-wise, an outlier occurrence, and possibly the beginning of a shift into small cap stocks.
Commodities were flat, with gold and silver barely budging from unchanged and oil settling around the $50 mark for WTI crude.
US treasuries escaped from inversion, with the 10-year note finishing at 1.59% yield and bills with maturities of less than a year all lower than that, albeit by only a few basis points. The 30-year bond is sitting precariously on a yield of just 2.05%.
China, notorious for supplying information that is either corrupted, massaged, or goal-sought to the pleasure of the Party, is difficult to gauge in terms of what it's telling the rest of the world. Are there 1100 dead from the virus or 11,000? Have over 4000 recovered, or more, or less? And what were the treatments involved?
None of this information is readily available as China is keeping a tight lid on the details. One thing is for sure: plants that were closed first because of the Lunar New Year holiday and had their closures extended by the threat of the virus are still closed, even though many were supposed to reopen on Monday, February 10. That's a worry Wall Street cannot overlook for long. With companies supplying component parts from everything from automobiles to washing machines, the effect of their closure will be felt up the chain. Car-makers outside of China, Nissan, Tesla, Kia, and others have already announced plant closures due to supply disruption. The longer the Chinese factories remain shuttered, the worse it is not only for the Chinese economy, but the global condition as well.
The overarching theme from the public start of the virus in early January to today has been one of questions about the virulence of the virus, the length of its incubation, the mortality rates. These questions have been answered in roundabout manners, but the big one, where does this all end? remains a mystery. China says the spread of the virus is slowing; the WHO says a global heightening of risk is on the horizon.
For the time being, everybody is playing a wait-and-see game.
At the Close, Tuesday, February 11, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 29,276.34, -0.48 (-0.00%)
NASDAQ: 9,638.94, +10.55 (+0.11%)
S&P 500: 3,357.75, +5.66 (+0.17%)
NYSE: 14,054.08, +69.60 (+0.50%)
Wednesday, September 13, 2017
Stocks on Track for Awesome 3rd Quarter Returns
Spoiler Alert: Depending on how your money is allocated, your third quarter 2017 401k, pension or retirement fund statement is going to look pretty good when you get it the first or second week of October.
That's because the rally that started in March, 2009 is still alive and well here in September, 2017.
For instance, if you're a blue chip kind of person, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended May just below 21,000. Two-and-a-half months later, it's broken through 22,000 and is poised for more gains through the end of the September. The Dow is tracking for roughly a five percent gain for the quarter. That's 20% annualized. Who knew this investing stuff was so easy?
In case you're a tech spec, the NASDAQ began the quarter at 6200 and just yesterday broke through to a new all-time high, above 6450. The gain is just over 4%, a little less than the Dow.
For those widely diversified, say, in an index fund tracking the S&P or NYSE, the 500 started June rocketing through 2420 and is currently just below 2500. Again, the profit is around 4%. The NYSE Composite has gone from 11,600 to over 12,000 in the quarter. That 400 point gain is less than four percent, but very safe and sound.
There are just 13 trading days remaining in the third quarter and no impediments for stocks to continue making new high after new high.
Happy returns!
At the Close, Tuesday, September 12, 2017:
Dow: 22,118.86, +61.49 (+0.28%)
NASDAQ: 6,454.28, +22.02 (+0.34%)
S&P 500: 2,496.48, +8.37 (+0.34%)
NYSE Composite: 12,057.12, +46.86 (+0.39%)
That's because the rally that started in March, 2009 is still alive and well here in September, 2017.
For instance, if you're a blue chip kind of person, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended May just below 21,000. Two-and-a-half months later, it's broken through 22,000 and is poised for more gains through the end of the September. The Dow is tracking for roughly a five percent gain for the quarter. That's 20% annualized. Who knew this investing stuff was so easy?
In case you're a tech spec, the NASDAQ began the quarter at 6200 and just yesterday broke through to a new all-time high, above 6450. The gain is just over 4%, a little less than the Dow.
For those widely diversified, say, in an index fund tracking the S&P or NYSE, the 500 started June rocketing through 2420 and is currently just below 2500. Again, the profit is around 4%. The NYSE Composite has gone from 11,600 to over 12,000 in the quarter. That 400 point gain is less than four percent, but very safe and sound.
There are just 13 trading days remaining in the third quarter and no impediments for stocks to continue making new high after new high.
Happy returns!
At the Close, Tuesday, September 12, 2017:
Dow: 22,118.86, +61.49 (+0.28%)
NASDAQ: 6,454.28, +22.02 (+0.34%)
S&P 500: 2,496.48, +8.37 (+0.34%)
NYSE Composite: 12,057.12, +46.86 (+0.39%)
Friday, February 17, 2017
Big Week For Equities Sends All US Indices To All-Time Highs
Stocks suffered early in the day on Friday, but rallied late with the Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all closing with marginal gains. Only the NYSE Composite ended the day in the red, down about a point-and-a-half.
Even with options expiry, Friday was barely exciting, but, for the week, the US averages were, in a word, incredible.
The closing figures for the day and week are presented below. More analysis (if any is even necessary) Saturday AM.
At the Close, Friday, February 17, 2017:
Dow: 20,624.05, +4.28 (0.02%)
NASDAQ: 5,838.58, +23.68 (0.41%)
S&P 500: 2,351.16, +3.94 (0.17%)
NYSE COMPOSITE: 11,502.71, -1.48 (-0.01%)
For the week:
Dow: +354.68 (1.75%)
NASDAQ: +104.45 (1.82%)
S&P 500: +35.06 (1.51%)
NYSE COMPOSITE: +133.19 (1.17%)
Even with options expiry, Friday was barely exciting, but, for the week, the US averages were, in a word, incredible.
The closing figures for the day and week are presented below. More analysis (if any is even necessary) Saturday AM.
At the Close, Friday, February 17, 2017:
Dow: 20,624.05, +4.28 (0.02%)
NASDAQ: 5,838.58, +23.68 (0.41%)
S&P 500: 2,351.16, +3.94 (0.17%)
NYSE COMPOSITE: 11,502.71, -1.48 (-0.01%)
For the week:
Dow: +354.68 (1.75%)
NASDAQ: +104.45 (1.82%)
S&P 500: +35.06 (1.51%)
NYSE COMPOSITE: +133.19 (1.17%)
Thursday, August 4, 2016
Stocks Drag Trhough Thursday Session; Oil Bounces
Sluggish would be a compliment to the manner of trading that took place on Thursday, with the major indices scratching out meager gains, with the exception of the Dow 30, which took it slightly on the chin but avoided a knockout blow.
Market participants are unaware of what to do without some form of guidance by or from the Fed or other central bankers. It's almost as though markets are locked up with nowhere to go, which actually might be the case as the slog through August continues.
If there was any bright spot for the markets it was in the oil patch, where WTI crude rallied off a low spot at $40 per barrel a few days ago and now sits closer to $42. It isn't much of a move, but nervous oil specs will take any gains they can get at this juncture. With crude spilling out of every known production facility at near record pace, the glut has only worsened over the summer as demand has not exactly been robust.
The price of crude - if not for material intervention by players of significant size - should be hovering closer to $30 than $40. Crude has fallen into a bear market, more than 20% off the recent artificial high of $50 per barrel, which didn't last for more than a nanosecond.
A serious sell-off in crude over the next few weeks or into October could be the catalyst for more selling of equities and another dip in the stock markets, though the power of the Fed and other central banks to prevent anything even resembling a correction before the November presidential election cannot be underestimated.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,352.05, -2.95 (-0.02%)
NASDAQ
5,166.25, +6.51 (0.13%)
S&P 500
2,164.25, +0.46 (0.02%)
NYSE Composite
10,707.13, +11.99 (0.11%)
Market participants are unaware of what to do without some form of guidance by or from the Fed or other central bankers. It's almost as though markets are locked up with nowhere to go, which actually might be the case as the slog through August continues.
If there was any bright spot for the markets it was in the oil patch, where WTI crude rallied off a low spot at $40 per barrel a few days ago and now sits closer to $42. It isn't much of a move, but nervous oil specs will take any gains they can get at this juncture. With crude spilling out of every known production facility at near record pace, the glut has only worsened over the summer as demand has not exactly been robust.
The price of crude - if not for material intervention by players of significant size - should be hovering closer to $30 than $40. Crude has fallen into a bear market, more than 20% off the recent artificial high of $50 per barrel, which didn't last for more than a nanosecond.
A serious sell-off in crude over the next few weeks or into October could be the catalyst for more selling of equities and another dip in the stock markets, though the power of the Fed and other central banks to prevent anything even resembling a correction before the November presidential election cannot be underestimated.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,352.05, -2.95 (-0.02%)
NASDAQ
5,166.25, +6.51 (0.13%)
S&P 500
2,164.25, +0.46 (0.02%)
NYSE Composite
10,707.13, +11.99 (0.11%)
Thursday, November 7, 2013
Wall Street Pouts Despite Twitter IPO; Jobs Data on Deck
Busy day today for the gods of greed, buyers of bluster, falcons of fraud, purveyors of prevarication.
Wall Street was all a-twitter over the IPO of Twitter (TWTR), the latest Web 2.0 mega-fad company gone public, which opened today on the NYSE with a bang. The stock was issued at 26, but opened at 44, quickly ramped up above 50 per share and closed at 44.90, good for a 78% gain. The company - based on "tweets" of 140 characters - is valued at about 29 times sales, pretty rich, especially for a enterprise that's still losing money. Well, at least the founders are now billionaires... on paper.
Prior to the opening bell, there was a flurry of activity from across the Atlantic pond, as Europe's Mario Draghi, ECB president extraordinaire, announced key rate cuts of 25 basis points, leaving the base rate at .25 and the key lending rate at .50. Observers in America wondered what took the Euros so long, though one must consider that they have been in the business of wrecking their own economies and fleecing the public a lot longer than their American counterparts, so they can kick the old can-can a lot longer and down an even shorter road without causing much of a stir.
The response from traders across the continent and in the UK was resoundingly mixed, with the German DAX higher, Britain's FTSE lower and the French CAC-40 barely changed. Don't these people understand the concept of cheap money? Pikers, the lot of them, except, of course, for the stodgy, stingy, and oh-so-proper Germans.
At 8:30 am ET, the US blasted off a couple of economic indicators, releasing the first reading on third quarter GDP at a robust 2.8%, a ribald lie if ever there was one, but enough to scare the few remaining hairs off the head of Lloyd Blankfien and others of his balding ilk. Good news is once again bad news, it appears, and any growth approaching three percent in the US sends shivers up the spineless bankers' backs, because they believe their buddies, Mr. Bernanke and the incoming Mr. Yellen, may cease the easy money programs that has catapulted every dishonest banker into ever-higher tax brackets.
The most recent initial unemployment claims - which were down 9,000 from the previous week, at 336,000, remained stubbornly high, though apparently not quite high enough for the barons of buyouts. These dopes saw this as another sign of a strengthening US economy, so, shortly after the opening bell, stocks did an abrupt about-face and trended lower throughout the session, with little respite.
In other news, Goldman Sachs is under investigation for rigging foreign exchange (FOREX) trading and just about everything else they do, and, yesterday, the Blackstone Group began pitching its rent-backed securities.
Really. They did. And some people actually bought them.
The advance-decline line cratered, with losers leading gainers by a 7:2 ratio, and new lows continue to close the gap on daily new highs, a trend metric that may just flip over if today's losses are indeed presaging something un-funny about tomorrow's delayed October non-farm jobs data, due out an hour before the opening bell. The way to read this is that the government is likely to report that something in the range of 120-150,000 new jobs were created during the month, which would be more proof of economic improvement, exactly what the market doesn't want. Either that, or it's going to be a real stink-bomb, because the forecast is only for 100,000.
Business as usual, my friends. Monkey business, that is.
Dow 15,593.98, -152.90 (0.97%)
Nasdaq 3,857.33, -74.61 (1.90%)
S&P 500 1,747.15, -23.34 (1.32%)
10-Yr Bond 2.61%, -0.03
NYSE Volume 4,092,416,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,196,542,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1276-4371
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 197-101
WTI crude oil: 94.20, -0.60
Gold: 1,308.50, -9.30
Silver: 21.66, -0.111
Corn: 420.50, -0.75
Wall Street was all a-twitter over the IPO of Twitter (TWTR), the latest Web 2.0 mega-fad company gone public, which opened today on the NYSE with a bang. The stock was issued at 26, but opened at 44, quickly ramped up above 50 per share and closed at 44.90, good for a 78% gain. The company - based on "tweets" of 140 characters - is valued at about 29 times sales, pretty rich, especially for a enterprise that's still losing money. Well, at least the founders are now billionaires... on paper.
Prior to the opening bell, there was a flurry of activity from across the Atlantic pond, as Europe's Mario Draghi, ECB president extraordinaire, announced key rate cuts of 25 basis points, leaving the base rate at .25 and the key lending rate at .50. Observers in America wondered what took the Euros so long, though one must consider that they have been in the business of wrecking their own economies and fleecing the public a lot longer than their American counterparts, so they can kick the old can-can a lot longer and down an even shorter road without causing much of a stir.
The response from traders across the continent and in the UK was resoundingly mixed, with the German DAX higher, Britain's FTSE lower and the French CAC-40 barely changed. Don't these people understand the concept of cheap money? Pikers, the lot of them, except, of course, for the stodgy, stingy, and oh-so-proper Germans.
At 8:30 am ET, the US blasted off a couple of economic indicators, releasing the first reading on third quarter GDP at a robust 2.8%, a ribald lie if ever there was one, but enough to scare the few remaining hairs off the head of Lloyd Blankfien and others of his balding ilk. Good news is once again bad news, it appears, and any growth approaching three percent in the US sends shivers up the spineless bankers' backs, because they believe their buddies, Mr. Bernanke and the incoming Mr. Yellen, may cease the easy money programs that has catapulted every dishonest banker into ever-higher tax brackets.
The most recent initial unemployment claims - which were down 9,000 from the previous week, at 336,000, remained stubbornly high, though apparently not quite high enough for the barons of buyouts. These dopes saw this as another sign of a strengthening US economy, so, shortly after the opening bell, stocks did an abrupt about-face and trended lower throughout the session, with little respite.
In other news, Goldman Sachs is under investigation for rigging foreign exchange (FOREX) trading and just about everything else they do, and, yesterday, the Blackstone Group began pitching its rent-backed securities.
Really. They did. And some people actually bought them.
The advance-decline line cratered, with losers leading gainers by a 7:2 ratio, and new lows continue to close the gap on daily new highs, a trend metric that may just flip over if today's losses are indeed presaging something un-funny about tomorrow's delayed October non-farm jobs data, due out an hour before the opening bell. The way to read this is that the government is likely to report that something in the range of 120-150,000 new jobs were created during the month, which would be more proof of economic improvement, exactly what the market doesn't want. Either that, or it's going to be a real stink-bomb, because the forecast is only for 100,000.
Business as usual, my friends. Monkey business, that is.
Dow 15,593.98, -152.90 (0.97%)
Nasdaq 3,857.33, -74.61 (1.90%)
S&P 500 1,747.15, -23.34 (1.32%)
10-Yr Bond 2.61%, -0.03
NYSE Volume 4,092,416,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,196,542,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1276-4371
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 197-101
WTI crude oil: 94.20, -0.60
Gold: 1,308.50, -9.30
Silver: 21.66, -0.111
Corn: 420.50, -0.75
Tuesday, June 18, 2013
When Three Strikes Is a Home Run
In the game of baseball, there are rules, immutable and unchanging. Three outs per inning. A caught fly ball is an out. Three strikes and you're out.
The world of high finance, as demonstrated daily on the trading platforms, carries no such rules, other than simple casino-style paradigms. Make the right bet, at the right time, and you're a winner, after the various parties to the trade take their respective cuts, of course. The broker gets theirs, the government, another. It's more about timing and luck, especially these days, when nothing much matters other than the directionality of the various computer algos plying and playing the indices.
So it is that in stocks, you have situations like today, wherein three strikes equates to hitting a home run. Prior to the opening bell, three different sets of economic data were presented, and, against expectations, all were swings and misses, except maybe the seasonally-adjusted building permits, which could be weighed as a foul tip into the catcher's mitt, a strike by any other name.
First came the May CPI, up 0.1%, on expectation of a rise of 0.2%, well short of the Fed's annualized two percent inflation target. Strike one. Next up, housing starts, which banked 914K, well below expectations of 950K. Strike two. As mentioned above, building permits, which mean nothing other than somebody is planning to do something, like put up a fence or remodel a bathroom, were just under the expected annualized rate of 975K - at 974K. Strike three.
The market response was as expected, with deference and possibly blissful ignorance toward the headline numbers, straight up all day, a veritable home run, even as auto sales in Europe reached 20-year lows and an agent of our very own secret police, the NSA (No Such Agency, to wise guys) testified to congress that the wholly unconstitutional massive spying program that filters every American's phone calls, emails and internet activity, prevented the bombing of the NY Stock Exchange by some nefarious, insidious suspect known only as "the doctor" in 2008. The NSA says more than 50 terrorist plots were uncovered by their spy programs since 9/11/2001. Not even the best Hollywood script writers could have come up with a better narrative to deprive citizens of their fourth amendment rights. Those NSA guys hire only the best, you know.
Thus stocks ended the day close to all-time highs once again. The Dow Industrials are within spitting distance - less than 100 points - of the May 28 closing high of 15,409.39 as the Fed ponders what to do next, wrapping up their two-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday. A policy decision is due out at 2:00 pm EDT, followed by a reading of the statement and press conference, by everybody's favorite "doctor," the dis-honorable Ben Bernanke, balding, bearded, wizened Chairman of the Federal Reserve.
With recent jawboning efforts pointing toward some tightening of Fed policy, the markets seem to be expecting no change in course for the every-easy Fed, and, while there's some nervousness over the wording of the statement, one might suspect that an even more important date - expiry of June options contracts on Friday - may be what's really driving the markets higher this week.
With baited breath we await the words offearless leader the Chairman. Can't wait.
Dow 15,318.23, +138.38 (0.91%)
NASDAQ 3,482.18, +30.05 (0.87%)
S&P 500 1,651.81, +12.77 (0.78%)
NYSE Composite 9,399.63, +61.74 (0.66%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,593,283,375
NYSE Volume 3,392,735,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4430-2051
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 327-76
WTI crude oil: 98.44, +0.67
Gold: 1,366.90, -16.20
Silver: 21.68, -0.081
The world of high finance, as demonstrated daily on the trading platforms, carries no such rules, other than simple casino-style paradigms. Make the right bet, at the right time, and you're a winner, after the various parties to the trade take their respective cuts, of course. The broker gets theirs, the government, another. It's more about timing and luck, especially these days, when nothing much matters other than the directionality of the various computer algos plying and playing the indices.
So it is that in stocks, you have situations like today, wherein three strikes equates to hitting a home run. Prior to the opening bell, three different sets of economic data were presented, and, against expectations, all were swings and misses, except maybe the seasonally-adjusted building permits, which could be weighed as a foul tip into the catcher's mitt, a strike by any other name.
First came the May CPI, up 0.1%, on expectation of a rise of 0.2%, well short of the Fed's annualized two percent inflation target. Strike one. Next up, housing starts, which banked 914K, well below expectations of 950K. Strike two. As mentioned above, building permits, which mean nothing other than somebody is planning to do something, like put up a fence or remodel a bathroom, were just under the expected annualized rate of 975K - at 974K. Strike three.
The market response was as expected, with deference and possibly blissful ignorance toward the headline numbers, straight up all day, a veritable home run, even as auto sales in Europe reached 20-year lows and an agent of our very own secret police, the NSA (No Such Agency, to wise guys) testified to congress that the wholly unconstitutional massive spying program that filters every American's phone calls, emails and internet activity, prevented the bombing of the NY Stock Exchange by some nefarious, insidious suspect known only as "the doctor" in 2008. The NSA says more than 50 terrorist plots were uncovered by their spy programs since 9/11/2001. Not even the best Hollywood script writers could have come up with a better narrative to deprive citizens of their fourth amendment rights. Those NSA guys hire only the best, you know.
Thus stocks ended the day close to all-time highs once again. The Dow Industrials are within spitting distance - less than 100 points - of the May 28 closing high of 15,409.39 as the Fed ponders what to do next, wrapping up their two-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday. A policy decision is due out at 2:00 pm EDT, followed by a reading of the statement and press conference, by everybody's favorite "doctor," the dis-honorable Ben Bernanke, balding, bearded, wizened Chairman of the Federal Reserve.
With recent jawboning efforts pointing toward some tightening of Fed policy, the markets seem to be expecting no change in course for the every-easy Fed, and, while there's some nervousness over the wording of the statement, one might suspect that an even more important date - expiry of June options contracts on Friday - may be what's really driving the markets higher this week.
With baited breath we await the words of
Dow 15,318.23, +138.38 (0.91%)
NASDAQ 3,482.18, +30.05 (0.87%)
S&P 500 1,651.81, +12.77 (0.78%)
NYSE Composite 9,399.63, +61.74 (0.66%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,593,283,375
NYSE Volume 3,392,735,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4430-2051
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 327-76
WTI crude oil: 98.44, +0.67
Gold: 1,366.90, -16.20
Silver: 21.68, -0.081
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
Wall Street Reacts to the Devastation of Hurricane Sandy with Flat Session
It's morally repugnant that Wall Street would profit from the human suffering of others, though, in reality, it happens all the time. Stocks go up and down on the fortunes and foibles of people, many integral parts of larger corporations.
Thus, it was a time of joyous celebration for the professionals trading at the New York Stock Exchange that, for the first time in two days, equity markets were actually up and functioning. But, that euphoria, which resulted in a wholly predictable, end-of-month window dressing rally at the open, soon turned an eye toward the reality of the devastation and destruction left behind by hurricane Sandy.
Most of lower Manhattan is still without power, the NYSE operating off backup generators, and most of the areas contiguous to Wall Street for many miles to the North, South, East and West, are just beginning to evaluate the extent of the losses.
Most of the New Jersey coast is either underwater, under piles of sand or otherwise devastated; Long Island is a crushed, mangled mess as is Connecticut and most of the other New York boroughs.
Many in the area are still without power, which is slowly returning to some areas, but the losses sustained by people and companies is only now beginning to be felt. Restoration and reconstruction will take months and billions of dollars, the hit to the economy unmistakable, as Wall Street fully understands and began coming to grips with as stocks began to slide shortly after the initial burst leveled off at about 80 points to the good on the Dow.
The rapid turnaround was classic Wall Street hustle, as fund managers snapped up shares at the open to close their books for the month - some for the year - while the sharpies were already shorting the very same shares. There's profit to be made on the downside, and the environment is target rich and ripe for plucking by short-sellers, call sellers and put buyers.
By 10:30 all of the major indices were trading in negative territory, led by the NASDAQ, which itself was brought down by particularly vicious selling in Apple (AAPL), in the aftermath of the firing of two top executives by CEO Tim Cook. It's becoming apparent to everyone that the loss of Steve Jobs was not only a human tragedy, but nobody is there to replace his unique genius and business acumen.
In Europe, which remained open for business as usual over the past two days of Wall Street's shutdown, stocks were mostly down on Monday, up on Tuesday and rallying early Wednesday until finally giving up the ghost late in the sessions, the major indices - England's FTSE, Germany's DAX and France's CAC - all closing lower.
Just about 12:30 pm EDT, a reminder of just how tenuous the entire situation around New York was came from Knight Capital, when the firm, operating under backup power in Jersey City, was forced to shut down for the day, citing that their generators were failing.
Volumes were moderate, considering that many traders were without proper equipment, cell phone service spotty and some traders actually functioning from alternate locations, at home or at satellite offices, though, by the close, the volume ramped up, and the day was one of the better recent volume sessions.
Midday, stocks balanced just above the lows of the session, but buying was timid. As has been the usual mode of operation around Wall Street, traders generally ignored the world around them, sending the S&P and Dow back into positive territory in the final hour, as if nothing at all had occurred, but the move proved unsustainable.
As it has for the past four sessions running, the major indices finished mostly flat, which is patently absurd, as there are corporations taking serious losses from the storm. Reality may set in as time carries onward, but there's no telling how the detached traders in lower Manhattan will treat what will eventually turn out to be one of the costliest natural disasters of all time.
Perhaps the psychology of the control crowd is to not panic, despite evidence to the contrary as pertains to investments, but there is a price to be paid, though, as usual, the analysts will simply lower their expectations for all, and when those are exceeded, will celebrate the great success of what are more and more becoming hollowed-out shells of companies.
There will be days if not weeks of lost productivity, wages and competitiveness across six states: Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. Smaller pockets of destruction have hit West Virginia (blizzard) and some New England states, such as Rhode Island, New Hampshire, Vermont, maine and Massachusetts.
Getting markets up and running is a fine accomplishment, but registering a slight decline is almost laughable, if the thought of it weren't so warped and disturbing.
Dow 13,096.46, -10.75 (0.08%)
NASDAQ 2,977.23, -10.72 (0.36%)
S&P 500 1,412.16, +0.22(0.02%)
NYSE Composite 8,221.40, +31.20(0.38%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,806,794,500
NYSE Volume 3,542,963,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3106-2429
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 198-124
WTI crude oil: 86.24, +0.56
Gold: 1,719.10, +7.00
Silver: 32.32, +0.50
Thus, it was a time of joyous celebration for the professionals trading at the New York Stock Exchange that, for the first time in two days, equity markets were actually up and functioning. But, that euphoria, which resulted in a wholly predictable, end-of-month window dressing rally at the open, soon turned an eye toward the reality of the devastation and destruction left behind by hurricane Sandy.
Most of lower Manhattan is still without power, the NYSE operating off backup generators, and most of the areas contiguous to Wall Street for many miles to the North, South, East and West, are just beginning to evaluate the extent of the losses.
Most of the New Jersey coast is either underwater, under piles of sand or otherwise devastated; Long Island is a crushed, mangled mess as is Connecticut and most of the other New York boroughs.
Many in the area are still without power, which is slowly returning to some areas, but the losses sustained by people and companies is only now beginning to be felt. Restoration and reconstruction will take months and billions of dollars, the hit to the economy unmistakable, as Wall Street fully understands and began coming to grips with as stocks began to slide shortly after the initial burst leveled off at about 80 points to the good on the Dow.
The rapid turnaround was classic Wall Street hustle, as fund managers snapped up shares at the open to close their books for the month - some for the year - while the sharpies were already shorting the very same shares. There's profit to be made on the downside, and the environment is target rich and ripe for plucking by short-sellers, call sellers and put buyers.
By 10:30 all of the major indices were trading in negative territory, led by the NASDAQ, which itself was brought down by particularly vicious selling in Apple (AAPL), in the aftermath of the firing of two top executives by CEO Tim Cook. It's becoming apparent to everyone that the loss of Steve Jobs was not only a human tragedy, but nobody is there to replace his unique genius and business acumen.
In Europe, which remained open for business as usual over the past two days of Wall Street's shutdown, stocks were mostly down on Monday, up on Tuesday and rallying early Wednesday until finally giving up the ghost late in the sessions, the major indices - England's FTSE, Germany's DAX and France's CAC - all closing lower.
Just about 12:30 pm EDT, a reminder of just how tenuous the entire situation around New York was came from Knight Capital, when the firm, operating under backup power in Jersey City, was forced to shut down for the day, citing that their generators were failing.
Volumes were moderate, considering that many traders were without proper equipment, cell phone service spotty and some traders actually functioning from alternate locations, at home or at satellite offices, though, by the close, the volume ramped up, and the day was one of the better recent volume sessions.
Midday, stocks balanced just above the lows of the session, but buying was timid. As has been the usual mode of operation around Wall Street, traders generally ignored the world around them, sending the S&P and Dow back into positive territory in the final hour, as if nothing at all had occurred, but the move proved unsustainable.
As it has for the past four sessions running, the major indices finished mostly flat, which is patently absurd, as there are corporations taking serious losses from the storm. Reality may set in as time carries onward, but there's no telling how the detached traders in lower Manhattan will treat what will eventually turn out to be one of the costliest natural disasters of all time.
Perhaps the psychology of the control crowd is to not panic, despite evidence to the contrary as pertains to investments, but there is a price to be paid, though, as usual, the analysts will simply lower their expectations for all, and when those are exceeded, will celebrate the great success of what are more and more becoming hollowed-out shells of companies.
There will be days if not weeks of lost productivity, wages and competitiveness across six states: Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. Smaller pockets of destruction have hit West Virginia (blizzard) and some New England states, such as Rhode Island, New Hampshire, Vermont, maine and Massachusetts.
Getting markets up and running is a fine accomplishment, but registering a slight decline is almost laughable, if the thought of it weren't so warped and disturbing.
Dow 13,096.46, -10.75 (0.08%)
NASDAQ 2,977.23, -10.72 (0.36%)
S&P 500 1,412.16, +0.22(0.02%)
NYSE Composite 8,221.40, +31.20(0.38%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,806,794,500
NYSE Volume 3,542,963,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3106-2429
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 198-124
WTI crude oil: 86.24, +0.56
Gold: 1,719.10, +7.00
Silver: 32.32, +0.50
Monday, October 29, 2012
Hurricane Sandy Shuts Down Equity Markets
It took the forces of nature to do what the SEC, government or any other "higher" power couldn't: shut down Wall Street.
Hurricane Sandy, a category 1 hurricane due to make landfall around Atlantic City New Jersey around 6:00 pm EDT, caused the NYSE and NASDAQ to shut down on Monday without even opening. Futures closed at 9:15 am EDT, with the major indices showing moderate, though not devastating, losses.
In New York, Mayor Bloomberg ordered the closure of all subway systems, and evacuated roughly 375,000 residents from lower Manhattan.
Though the storm did not reach landfall until markets would have already closed, high winds and storm surge were expected to cause damage in lower Manhattan, while most of the Eastern seaboard was inundated throughout the day with high surf and damaging winds.
Later in the day, the exchanges decided to remain closed on Tuesday. It is the first time since 1888 that stock markets were closed due to weather for more than one day in succession.
Also in question are various corporate earnings reports. Many which were due out on Monday have been rescheduled for release and there is a rumor circulating that Friday's non-farm payroll report for October would also be delayed. It is the final jobs report before the election next Tuesday.
Other exchanges, for bonds, Forex and commodities were open or closed or offered limited sessions and some plan to open on Tuesday while others will not. The situation is rather - pardon the pun - fluid.
WTI crude oil: 85.54, -0.74
Gold: 1,708.70, -3.20
Silver: 31.74, -0.291
Hurricane Sandy, a category 1 hurricane due to make landfall around Atlantic City New Jersey around 6:00 pm EDT, caused the NYSE and NASDAQ to shut down on Monday without even opening. Futures closed at 9:15 am EDT, with the major indices showing moderate, though not devastating, losses.
In New York, Mayor Bloomberg ordered the closure of all subway systems, and evacuated roughly 375,000 residents from lower Manhattan.
Though the storm did not reach landfall until markets would have already closed, high winds and storm surge were expected to cause damage in lower Manhattan, while most of the Eastern seaboard was inundated throughout the day with high surf and damaging winds.
Later in the day, the exchanges decided to remain closed on Tuesday. It is the first time since 1888 that stock markets were closed due to weather for more than one day in succession.
Also in question are various corporate earnings reports. Many which were due out on Monday have been rescheduled for release and there is a rumor circulating that Friday's non-farm payroll report for October would also be delayed. It is the final jobs report before the election next Tuesday.
Other exchanges, for bonds, Forex and commodities were open or closed or offered limited sessions and some plan to open on Tuesday while others will not. The situation is rather - pardon the pun - fluid.
WTI crude oil: 85.54, -0.74
Gold: 1,708.70, -3.20
Silver: 31.74, -0.291
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
Buy More Stocks Because the Dollar is Worthless
If anyone has any kind of notion that today's massive uptick in stocks had anything to do with the strength of the US economy, they'd better go back to economics 101 and check the chapter on currency devaluation.
Oh, there is no chapter on that? Well, allow me to explain how the dollar was absolutely savaged by - of all things - the Euro, and a host of other currencies including, but not limited to: the Aussie dollar, the Canadian looney, the Chinese Yuan and especially, the Swiss Franc.
On the dollar index (not a particularly great way to value US paper money, but sufficient for this discussion), the loss was 74 cents, or nearly one percent, meaning everything you buy that isn't produced in the United States - which is just about everything - costs 1% more today than it did yesterday. The corresponding rise in stocks only helps alleviate the pain for the richy-rich amongst us, but they usually find tax dodges or off-shore accounts for their hordes of cash anyhow.
The rest of you schmucks are just going to have to take it, see? You pay more so the Fed can print more billions, give them to the primary dealers and allow the government to continue overspending until eternity, which is a long, long, time. Next week, it will likely get worse, with gas heading for $5.00 a gallon nationally, and everything else going up accordingly, eventually, the average household will be able to buy food and fuel and little else, all the while watching those who own stocks make fortunes.
While the wizards of Wall Street frolic in the fields of greenbacks, you and I will be left holding the bag, containing manure, and be taxed into oblivion. Don't worry about Medicare and Social Security, most of us will die off before any benefits are actually paid out.
It's an ugly, severely evil set-up by the banks and our hands-out congress to create two distinct classes in the United States: the super, super rich and everyone else. You and I must learn how to raise our own crops and subsist off the land leased by our wealthy masters. Welcome to the golden age of feudalism!
I have nothing more to add except that if you haven't started some plants growing in your back yard and already own some silver or gold or both, you need to do so immediately, as time is running short and planting season is upon us. We are nearing the point of complete collapse of the middle class.
If your kids are planning to go to a big university and go into hock to the tune of $40, $50 or as much as $100,000 to get their degree, it might be time to sit them down and explain that their high school diploma will be sufficient, in their bleak future, to work as a mechanic, a gardener, or a chamber maid. Their dreams of becoming the next great biologist or astronaut will have to be put on indefinite hold.
Dow 12,453.54, +186.79 (1.52%)
NASDAQ 2,802.51, +57.54 (2.10%)
S&P 500 1,330.36, +17.74 (1.35%)
NYSE Composite 8,457.65, +125.62 (1.51%)
Advancing issues pounded decliners, 5245-1347. There were 133 new highs and 29 new lows. On the NYSE, 193 new highs and 16 new lows was the order of the day. Volume was relatively solid on the NASDAQ, where all the momentum stocks reside, but the usual miserable figures were posted on the NYSE. Almost all of the day's gains were made at the open, so the futures players made fortunes; the rest of the session was nothing more than churning.
NASDAQ Volume 2,112,464,250
NYSE Volume 4,657,346,000
Crude oil made a huge move of nearly 3%, gaining $3.17, to $111.45, making that $5.00 gallon of gas that the oil barons dream about that much closer to reality. Gold blasted through the $1500 mark again, but was taken down to $1,498.90, a gain of a mere $3.80. Silver continues to dazzle, gaining another 54 cents on the day, finishing in New York at $44.46.
While some argue that gold and silver are bubbles, if that is the case, then what is to be said of stocks, which have doubled off their March 2009 lows? Gold and silver are only a third to a fifth of the way to where they are eventually going. With every new dollar printed by the Chairman of the Fed, Ben Bernanke, an ounce of precious metals costs a little bit more, and that's about the only good news I can report today.
EDIT: Following the COMEX close in New York, gold bounced to $1502.10, and silver shot up to $45.22 an ounce at 5:18 pm EDT.
Oh, there is no chapter on that? Well, allow me to explain how the dollar was absolutely savaged by - of all things - the Euro, and a host of other currencies including, but not limited to: the Aussie dollar, the Canadian looney, the Chinese Yuan and especially, the Swiss Franc.
On the dollar index (not a particularly great way to value US paper money, but sufficient for this discussion), the loss was 74 cents, or nearly one percent, meaning everything you buy that isn't produced in the United States - which is just about everything - costs 1% more today than it did yesterday. The corresponding rise in stocks only helps alleviate the pain for the richy-rich amongst us, but they usually find tax dodges or off-shore accounts for their hordes of cash anyhow.
The rest of you schmucks are just going to have to take it, see? You pay more so the Fed can print more billions, give them to the primary dealers and allow the government to continue overspending until eternity, which is a long, long, time. Next week, it will likely get worse, with gas heading for $5.00 a gallon nationally, and everything else going up accordingly, eventually, the average household will be able to buy food and fuel and little else, all the while watching those who own stocks make fortunes.
While the wizards of Wall Street frolic in the fields of greenbacks, you and I will be left holding the bag, containing manure, and be taxed into oblivion. Don't worry about Medicare and Social Security, most of us will die off before any benefits are actually paid out.
It's an ugly, severely evil set-up by the banks and our hands-out congress to create two distinct classes in the United States: the super, super rich and everyone else. You and I must learn how to raise our own crops and subsist off the land leased by our wealthy masters. Welcome to the golden age of feudalism!
I have nothing more to add except that if you haven't started some plants growing in your back yard and already own some silver or gold or both, you need to do so immediately, as time is running short and planting season is upon us. We are nearing the point of complete collapse of the middle class.
If your kids are planning to go to a big university and go into hock to the tune of $40, $50 or as much as $100,000 to get their degree, it might be time to sit them down and explain that their high school diploma will be sufficient, in their bleak future, to work as a mechanic, a gardener, or a chamber maid. Their dreams of becoming the next great biologist or astronaut will have to be put on indefinite hold.
Dow 12,453.54, +186.79 (1.52%)
NASDAQ 2,802.51, +57.54 (2.10%)
S&P 500 1,330.36, +17.74 (1.35%)
NYSE Composite 8,457.65, +125.62 (1.51%)
Advancing issues pounded decliners, 5245-1347. There were 133 new highs and 29 new lows. On the NYSE, 193 new highs and 16 new lows was the order of the day. Volume was relatively solid on the NASDAQ, where all the momentum stocks reside, but the usual miserable figures were posted on the NYSE. Almost all of the day's gains were made at the open, so the futures players made fortunes; the rest of the session was nothing more than churning.
NASDAQ Volume 2,112,464,250
NYSE Volume 4,657,346,000
Crude oil made a huge move of nearly 3%, gaining $3.17, to $111.45, making that $5.00 gallon of gas that the oil barons dream about that much closer to reality. Gold blasted through the $1500 mark again, but was taken down to $1,498.90, a gain of a mere $3.80. Silver continues to dazzle, gaining another 54 cents on the day, finishing in New York at $44.46.
While some argue that gold and silver are bubbles, if that is the case, then what is to be said of stocks, which have doubled off their March 2009 lows? Gold and silver are only a third to a fifth of the way to where they are eventually going. With every new dollar printed by the Chairman of the Fed, Ben Bernanke, an ounce of precious metals costs a little bit more, and that's about the only good news I can report today.
EDIT: Following the COMEX close in New York, gold bounced to $1502.10, and silver shot up to $45.22 an ounce at 5:18 pm EDT.
Tuesday, March 6, 2007
Did That Dead Cat Bounce? Yes, Indeed!
Is this how downtrends end? With a one-day wonder resurgence that erases any doubt that the US economy, American resolve and corporate equities are safe investments, the markets have made a bold statement.
Too bad it's impossible to believe.
The Dow added 157 points, the NASDAQ was up 44.46, the S&P gained 21.29 and the NYSE Composite index grew by 168. These were solid gains all around, led by the NYSE Composite and the NASDAQ's 1.9% improvement, but one good day, after a series of bad ones, does not a bull market make. The trend is still to the downside. The Dow, for example, is still nearly 600 points below it's high of 12,795.93, achieved less then a month ago. It's broken through the 50 day moving average and today's gain - albeit impressive - leaves it more than 300 points below that mark.
Further, the big 416-point drop last Tuesday was preceded by four consecutive down sessions. Today's winner was only the 2nd positive close of the last 10 sessions. Bulls, hard-headed as they are, usually need to be hit over the head with a mallet before they stop charging ahead, so maybe more evidence is needed. Give them a couple more weeks.
The advance-decline and volume numbers for today were real shockers. This was no ordinary buying spree. Every sucker in the universe was taking the plunge, a sign that cooler heads (Bears, shorts and put options players) are about to take more of their money.
Gainers outnumbered losers by a 4-1 margin, but the volume figures were extraordinary. Dow volume checked in at only 5-6% on the combined averages. Up volume of 94% signals just one thing - this is nothing more than a dead cat bounce on a temporarily oversold condition. Everybody moving at once is never a good sign because the chances of everybody being right are slim to none.
This market will likely give today's gains back by the end of the week. If this mini-rally gets legs and moves another step forward, it may take until the end of next week to unwind, but unwind it will. The market is not in any condition to regroup and head for higher ground. This correction is still in its earliest stage. We can call today the beginning of stage two, in which those who did not lose enough to be wary in phase one will be eaten alive.
New highs reversed the recent trend, though not by much, winning the day by a slim margin of 123-108. That's encouraging for the Bulls, but nothing to write home about.
Oil, gold and silver were up marginally. Commodities are still stuck in somewhat overbought ranges and cannot move higher when the global economy is in a cooling period or slowing down, which it is. For bulls of all persuasions, however, today was needed relief. But, like all relief rallies, they are usually dramatic and short-lived. This was no exception.
Too bad it's impossible to believe.
The Dow added 157 points, the NASDAQ was up 44.46, the S&P gained 21.29 and the NYSE Composite index grew by 168. These were solid gains all around, led by the NYSE Composite and the NASDAQ's 1.9% improvement, but one good day, after a series of bad ones, does not a bull market make. The trend is still to the downside. The Dow, for example, is still nearly 600 points below it's high of 12,795.93, achieved less then a month ago. It's broken through the 50 day moving average and today's gain - albeit impressive - leaves it more than 300 points below that mark.
Further, the big 416-point drop last Tuesday was preceded by four consecutive down sessions. Today's winner was only the 2nd positive close of the last 10 sessions. Bulls, hard-headed as they are, usually need to be hit over the head with a mallet before they stop charging ahead, so maybe more evidence is needed. Give them a couple more weeks.
The advance-decline and volume numbers for today were real shockers. This was no ordinary buying spree. Every sucker in the universe was taking the plunge, a sign that cooler heads (Bears, shorts and put options players) are about to take more of their money.
Gainers outnumbered losers by a 4-1 margin, but the volume figures were extraordinary. Dow volume checked in at only 5-6% on the combined averages. Up volume of 94% signals just one thing - this is nothing more than a dead cat bounce on a temporarily oversold condition. Everybody moving at once is never a good sign because the chances of everybody being right are slim to none.
This market will likely give today's gains back by the end of the week. If this mini-rally gets legs and moves another step forward, it may take until the end of next week to unwind, but unwind it will. The market is not in any condition to regroup and head for higher ground. This correction is still in its earliest stage. We can call today the beginning of stage two, in which those who did not lose enough to be wary in phase one will be eaten alive.
New highs reversed the recent trend, though not by much, winning the day by a slim margin of 123-108. That's encouraging for the Bulls, but nothing to write home about.
Oil, gold and silver were up marginally. Commodities are still stuck in somewhat overbought ranges and cannot move higher when the global economy is in a cooling period or slowing down, which it is. For bulls of all persuasions, however, today was needed relief. But, like all relief rallies, they are usually dramatic and short-lived. This was no exception.
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