Money Daily stopped being a daily post blog in March, 2014. While the name remains the same, the posts are now on an intermittent basis, as conditions warrant, though it is advised to read the archives (from 2006-2014) regularly, even daily, for insights and historical perspective.
It took nearly 15 years, but the NASDAQ Index finally has clawed its way back above the magical 5000 mark, closing today at 5008. The last time the NASDAQ closed over 5000 was on March 27, 2000, but, back then, it was going in the opposite direction, as the tech bubble was popped and investors were scrambling to hold onto gains in companies with no earnings, like Pets.com, Alta Vista and NetZero.
Today marked a 295% increase from the lows seen in March, 2009, so, conceivably, if one had the patience to hold the QQQs from then until now - just six short years - a near-quadrupling of one's money could be in hand at the close today. Of course, not even the most savvy investor, speculator or degenerate gambler could have been so lucky; stocks in the NASDAQ have been churned and turned, so the index looks quite a bit different than it did in 2009, even more so from 2000.
The NASDAQ of today is not quite as zippy as it was in the late 1990s. Volume is down dramatically and ten stocks - such as Apple, Google and Netflix - have provided more than 75% of the gains overall, so, it's likely that many investors were still stuck with moribund returns while the HFT algos ground higher for the one-percenters who control the market.
This nominal event evokes thoughts of the tech bubble and housing bubble, and shows some comparable characteristics. Special to the most recent rally of the past six years has been the incredible amount of liquidity provided by the Federal Reserve, an effect to which many ascribe the totality of the gains since 2009.
Whether we are once again in bubble territory remains not to be seen, but only to be verified. Talk, being the cheap commodity that it is, says loosely that stocks today are much better values, though recent macro data on the general economy, plus geo-economic conditions, seem to be pointed in a completely different direction.
Money Daily, convinced that we are once more headed for a collapse of astounding proportions, will resume regular daily postings with this writing.
Stay tuned. More information on the deformation of the markets is forthcoming.
Monday, March 2, 2015
Sunday, February 22, 2015
Sunday Morning News Shows Have Become Un-Watchable, Unbearable
Money Daily stopped being a daily post blog in March, 2014. While the name remains the same, the posts are now on an intermittent basis, as conditions warrant, though it is advised to read the archives (from 2006-2014) regularly, even daily, for insights and historical perspective.
Maybe it's just me.
Maybe I've gotten too old (61), too cranky, or too intolerant to listen to government and media morons every Sunday morning, or, to put it into closer perspective, ANY SUNDAY MORNING.
Today, since I can no longer stomach NBC's Meet the Press, I tuned into FoxNews Sunday, which airs at the same time in my market (thank goodness). After just four minutes of hearing why President Obama needs to call ISIS (ISIL) "Islamic Extremists," I was done. Is that kind of devolved worthless introspective what the news media (propagandists) deems important?
Or, maybe I should just sit through it, listen to the usually empty talking heads and the next potential Republican candidate for the 2016 presidential election and make my life choices based upon the trite script the networks wish to foist upon the American public.
That just doesn't seem to be a wise choice. Besides, we have the Brian Williams incident leading the indictment against mainstream news. Televised media, which took over when people stopped reading newspapers, is a hollow hell-hole of disingenuous political nonsense. Just watch any of these Sunday shows, or, a week's worth of evening news on ABCBSNBC, and count how many stories are devoted to government matters. It's nearly all of it.
Is that all that matters in America, anymore? What the government is doing?
Sorry, I'm tuning out.
There's better news coverage from alternative sources on the internet, and, I don't mean 140 characters on Twitter.
Rant over, and I still have 40 minutes of my life left that I used to spend "keeping up."
Glory!
Maybe it's just me.
Maybe I've gotten too old (61), too cranky, or too intolerant to listen to government and media morons every Sunday morning, or, to put it into closer perspective, ANY SUNDAY MORNING.
Today, since I can no longer stomach NBC's Meet the Press, I tuned into FoxNews Sunday, which airs at the same time in my market (thank goodness). After just four minutes of hearing why President Obama needs to call ISIS (ISIL) "Islamic Extremists," I was done. Is that kind of devolved worthless introspective what the news media (propagandists) deems important?
Or, maybe I should just sit through it, listen to the usually empty talking heads and the next potential Republican candidate for the 2016 presidential election and make my life choices based upon the trite script the networks wish to foist upon the American public.
That just doesn't seem to be a wise choice. Besides, we have the Brian Williams incident leading the indictment against mainstream news. Televised media, which took over when people stopped reading newspapers, is a hollow hell-hole of disingenuous political nonsense. Just watch any of these Sunday shows, or, a week's worth of evening news on ABCBSNBC, and count how many stories are devoted to government matters. It's nearly all of it.
Is that all that matters in America, anymore? What the government is doing?
Sorry, I'm tuning out.
There's better news coverage from alternative sources on the internet, and, I don't mean 140 characters on Twitter.
Rant over, and I still have 40 minutes of my life left that I used to spend "keeping up."
Glory!
Tuesday, January 27, 2015
And Now Comes the Crash
Money Daily stopped being a daily post blog in March, 2014. While the name remains the same, the posts are now on an intermittent basis, as conditions warrant, though it is advised to read the archives (from 2006-2014) regularly, even daily, for insights and historical perspective.
Writing this morning as Dow futures are down around 275-300 points, market participants are reacting negatively to any number of factors, not the least of which was the truly ugly print of December durable goods orders, which came in at -3.4% against expectations of +0.3%.
Also revised lower were November's durable figures, from an already disappointing -0.7% to a dismal -2.1%.
The stock market crash, yes, the one that's been delayed since 2009 thanks to QE from the Fed, then Japan, and now, supposedly, from the European Union (EU), is upon us. The bull market that began when mark-t-market became mark-to-fantasy in March of 2009 has overstayed its welcome, and those who have not already jumped ship on tech stocks, income stocks, growth stocks (there's a real laugher for you; most companies' earnings for 2014 were lower than 2013 and 2015 will be lower still), or blue chip stocks, are about to get creamed, rapidly, starting today, but, when the Dow Industrials close below 17,068.87 (the close on December 16, 2014), for certain.
One only has to look at a recent chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and have a cursory understanding of Dow Theory to realize that the primary trend is about to change. Now, if it doesn't - if the Dow doesn't close below 17,068.87 and subsequently makes new highs, or, if it does close below that level and then makes new highs - then the market is being purposefully and blatantly manipulated. Besides the fact that most, if not all, markets have been manipulated since the crash of 2008, and probably well before that, a massive nosedive in stocks should come as little surprise to anybody, save those who hold out hope against hope that the Federal Reserve and the federal government, in all their wisdom, will save markets no matter what, which, in fact, is the core of manipulation itself.
Bull markets do not last forever. Lying and misguiding the public does not work forever. The public, that nebulous, unintelligible mass of humanity that follows blindly like sheep led to shearing or slaughter, will understand little of this, if any of it, but, we've collectively been led down a garden path to economic slavery and destruction by lying lawyers, bankers, CEOs, media and politicians, whose only concerns are their own, and against sound public policy.
Globally, economies are in a shambles. A raging currency war is merely pretext for a coming deep depression. While the United States may be the "cleanest shirt in a dirty laundry basket" it is no doubt still dirty, and a cleansing is overdue.
For too long, the American public has listened to the media, bankers and politicians who promised what they could not deliver: economic prosperity for everybody. It's a pipe dream, a facade, a fallacy, a Fugazy. The reckoning is upon us, just in time for the Super Bowl.
Just wait for the number: 17,068.87. When the Dow closes below that, it's game over, and no jawboning by Federal Reserve governors, or politicians, or media mouthpieces, can change that. A long, painful bear market will take the Dow and other averages to places nobody can imagine. At first, it will be called a correction (unless it absolutely crashes - like down 1000 points - today), but, make no doubt, it will be a bear market, followed by a recession, and then a depression (which, many will claim we are already in, since 2008).
Trust your own judgement, but, if you have not prepared for the worst of times, you are certain to live through them. Your portfolio allocations should look something like this: 20% Precious Metals; 60% cash; 20% survival/tradable/salable goods.
Best wishes to all.
Writing this morning as Dow futures are down around 275-300 points, market participants are reacting negatively to any number of factors, not the least of which was the truly ugly print of December durable goods orders, which came in at -3.4% against expectations of +0.3%.
Also revised lower were November's durable figures, from an already disappointing -0.7% to a dismal -2.1%.
The stock market crash, yes, the one that's been delayed since 2009 thanks to QE from the Fed, then Japan, and now, supposedly, from the European Union (EU), is upon us. The bull market that began when mark-t-market became mark-to-fantasy in March of 2009 has overstayed its welcome, and those who have not already jumped ship on tech stocks, income stocks, growth stocks (there's a real laugher for you; most companies' earnings for 2014 were lower than 2013 and 2015 will be lower still), or blue chip stocks, are about to get creamed, rapidly, starting today, but, when the Dow Industrials close below 17,068.87 (the close on December 16, 2014), for certain.
One only has to look at a recent chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and have a cursory understanding of Dow Theory to realize that the primary trend is about to change. Now, if it doesn't - if the Dow doesn't close below 17,068.87 and subsequently makes new highs, or, if it does close below that level and then makes new highs - then the market is being purposefully and blatantly manipulated. Besides the fact that most, if not all, markets have been manipulated since the crash of 2008, and probably well before that, a massive nosedive in stocks should come as little surprise to anybody, save those who hold out hope against hope that the Federal Reserve and the federal government, in all their wisdom, will save markets no matter what, which, in fact, is the core of manipulation itself.
Bull markets do not last forever. Lying and misguiding the public does not work forever. The public, that nebulous, unintelligible mass of humanity that follows blindly like sheep led to shearing or slaughter, will understand little of this, if any of it, but, we've collectively been led down a garden path to economic slavery and destruction by lying lawyers, bankers, CEOs, media and politicians, whose only concerns are their own, and against sound public policy.
Globally, economies are in a shambles. A raging currency war is merely pretext for a coming deep depression. While the United States may be the "cleanest shirt in a dirty laundry basket" it is no doubt still dirty, and a cleansing is overdue.
For too long, the American public has listened to the media, bankers and politicians who promised what they could not deliver: economic prosperity for everybody. It's a pipe dream, a facade, a fallacy, a Fugazy. The reckoning is upon us, just in time for the Super Bowl.
Just wait for the number: 17,068.87. When the Dow closes below that, it's game over, and no jawboning by Federal Reserve governors, or politicians, or media mouthpieces, can change that. A long, painful bear market will take the Dow and other averages to places nobody can imagine. At first, it will be called a correction (unless it absolutely crashes - like down 1000 points - today), but, make no doubt, it will be a bear market, followed by a recession, and then a depression (which, many will claim we are already in, since 2008).
Trust your own judgement, but, if you have not prepared for the worst of times, you are certain to live through them. Your portfolio allocations should look something like this: 20% Precious Metals; 60% cash; 20% survival/tradable/salable goods.
Best wishes to all.
Wednesday, January 21, 2015
SOTU 2015 Recap: Drink, Drink, Chug, Vomit; Oscar Wilde For The Win
Money Daily stopped being a daily post blog in March, 2014. While the name remains the same, the posts are now on an intermittent basis, as conditions warrant, though it is advised to read the archives (from 2006-2014) regularly, even daily, for insights and historical perspective.
Just to be fair, we didn't exactly keep pace with the president in our SOTU drinking game.
Having chosen the top four words from our Top Ten list - taxes, jobs, Middle Class, and, economy - President Obama brought down the house on the jobs number, using that specific word (either in the singular or plural form) 24 times before we stopped counting. Smartly, he only said "tax" or "taxes" five times, used the term, "Middle Class" four times, "economy" 13 times and never once used the word "rich."
Where the president excelled, however, actually overwhelming even our rosiest expectations, was in the bonus chugs segment, in which he mentioned ten countries specifically, not including the United States (or America), which technically didn't count, and was, obviously, one of the more frequently used words in his hour-long speech to the nation.
Obama got off early with mentions of Afghanistan and Iraq, and, though it took a while for him to come up with the third county, Japan, he took charge with a quick rattling off of Syria, Russia, Ukraine, Cuba, Iran, Israel and China in short order.
What took the whole drinking effort to new levels was the president's expert rendering of the terrorist naming bonus, in which we instructed that the mention of three terrorist groups would constitute a chug command. Though Obama specifically named only one group by name, he nailed the ISIS-ISIL bonus at 9:45 pm, 35 minutes into the speech, calling his favorite Mideast thugs by their pet name, ISIL, invoking the rule of our game to promptly end in a spellbinding, chug-til-you-puke crescendo.
So intent was the president on getting the nation massively inebriated that he intoned "ISIL" again just one minute later. Strangely enough, his wording was actually foreshadowed by Mrs. Alan Greenspan (aka, Andrea Mitchell), who mentioned ISIL just minutes before the president made his way to the podium. We applaud the otherwise droll Mrs. Greenspan for her literary bravado.
Aside from yet another successful SOTU drinking panacea - Obama's sixth - the president's rhetoric was little more than a rehash of his last two SOTU addresses, replete with promises that will be broken and high-minded principles to which congress and the administration will find difficult, if not impossible, to personalize.
Generally, while we agree in principle with a good deal of Obama's vision of America (though free community college and health care coverage for everyone are a bit too far out on the socialist agenda for our tastes), we have grown tired of waiting for either the president or the congress to come through with specific actions. Empty rhetoric becomes tiresome in short time. Repetition of such tends to be unbearable.
On the humorous, if not tragic, side, the president made the bold claim that inflation was at its lowest level in 50 years, at the precise time that the Federal Reserve is in a death match to avert outright deflation. While the president wishes to point out that low inflation is a grand intention - and it is - the pedals of public policy are being pimped and pumped by the pervicacious pedants at the Fed in exactly the opposite direction, with, thankfully, limited success.
Perhaps, in a perverse and fateful way, the wisdom and wit of Oscar Wilde is prescient:
By all appearances, neither the Fed, the president, nor the American public's aspirations will be satiated.
Just to be fair, we didn't exactly keep pace with the president in our SOTU drinking game.
Having chosen the top four words from our Top Ten list - taxes, jobs, Middle Class, and, economy - President Obama brought down the house on the jobs number, using that specific word (either in the singular or plural form) 24 times before we stopped counting. Smartly, he only said "tax" or "taxes" five times, used the term, "Middle Class" four times, "economy" 13 times and never once used the word "rich."
Where the president excelled, however, actually overwhelming even our rosiest expectations, was in the bonus chugs segment, in which he mentioned ten countries specifically, not including the United States (or America), which technically didn't count, and was, obviously, one of the more frequently used words in his hour-long speech to the nation.
Obama got off early with mentions of Afghanistan and Iraq, and, though it took a while for him to come up with the third county, Japan, he took charge with a quick rattling off of Syria, Russia, Ukraine, Cuba, Iran, Israel and China in short order.
What took the whole drinking effort to new levels was the president's expert rendering of the terrorist naming bonus, in which we instructed that the mention of three terrorist groups would constitute a chug command. Though Obama specifically named only one group by name, he nailed the ISIS-ISIL bonus at 9:45 pm, 35 minutes into the speech, calling his favorite Mideast thugs by their pet name, ISIL, invoking the rule of our game to promptly end in a spellbinding, chug-til-you-puke crescendo.
So intent was the president on getting the nation massively inebriated that he intoned "ISIL" again just one minute later. Strangely enough, his wording was actually foreshadowed by Mrs. Alan Greenspan (aka, Andrea Mitchell), who mentioned ISIL just minutes before the president made his way to the podium. We applaud the otherwise droll Mrs. Greenspan for her literary bravado.
Aside from yet another successful SOTU drinking panacea - Obama's sixth - the president's rhetoric was little more than a rehash of his last two SOTU addresses, replete with promises that will be broken and high-minded principles to which congress and the administration will find difficult, if not impossible, to personalize.
Generally, while we agree in principle with a good deal of Obama's vision of America (though free community college and health care coverage for everyone are a bit too far out on the socialist agenda for our tastes), we have grown tired of waiting for either the president or the congress to come through with specific actions. Empty rhetoric becomes tiresome in short time. Repetition of such tends to be unbearable.
On the humorous, if not tragic, side, the president made the bold claim that inflation was at its lowest level in 50 years, at the precise time that the Federal Reserve is in a death match to avert outright deflation. While the president wishes to point out that low inflation is a grand intention - and it is - the pedals of public policy are being pimped and pumped by the pervicacious pedants at the Fed in exactly the opposite direction, with, thankfully, limited success.
Perhaps, in a perverse and fateful way, the wisdom and wit of Oscar Wilde is prescient:
"There are only two tragedies in life: one is not getting what one wants, and the other is getting it."
By all appearances, neither the Fed, the president, nor the American public's aspirations will be satiated.
Tuesday, January 20, 2015
State of the Union Drinking Game 2015: Multiple Choice, Top Ten Version, with Bonus Chug Words
Money Daily stopped being a daily post blog in March, 2014. While the name remains the same, the posts are now on an intermittent basis, as conditions warrant, though it is advised to read the archives (from 2006-2014) regularly, even daily, for insights and historical perspective.
By now, most of you know the rules about State of the Union Drinking Games, but, to briefly recap, it goes something like this:
1. Prepare your favorite adult beverage, be it beer, wine, or a mixed concoction. Keep refills close at hand.
2. Settle into a comfortable chair or on your couch and get ready for the annual ritual monologue from whomever it is that has been selected (recall that elections are so 20th century, done away with the Supreme Court's decision in Gore v. Bush, circa 2000; now it's all managed by your black box friends at Diebold et. al.) to give the State of the Union speech, always this is the president, so we get Mr. Obama for the sixth or seventh time this year. Honestly, we've lost count because we've been so drunk most of the time.
3. Choose a word (or words) you think the speaker will utter a number of times, and prepare to take a swig or (dangerous, unless you're swilling peach brandy or some other fru-fru-umbrella-type drink) do a shot when the word (or words) is uttered. Those of you pounding 151 Rum or Rumplemintz, you are our heroes.
4. Turn on TV. Prepare to be bored, then angry, then drunk, and probably angrier.
For this year, we decided to list the top ten words we think will be the most popular ones to come off the teleprompter and then the lips of the President, and, no, we did not get an advance copy of the speech, though there have been leaks about the direction the president will be taking the speech.
Now, we are disappointed that the speech will be televised live on the major networks beginning at 9:00 pm ET, which is a little late for those of us in the working class or past middle age (seniors). As for the latter group, seniors, you should plan on eating a little later this evening, say, waiting until maybe 6:30 instead of the usual early-bird 4:25 pm.
If you're a working guy or gal who has to be up at 5:00 am or earlier, well, welcome to 21st century slavery. There are alternatives, you know, but, most of you are suffering from a severe case of normalcy bias, so we'll just let you alone, for now. In any case, many of you may want to warm up with a few cold ones or mixed ones or straight ones or neat ones beforehand. Whatever blows your hair back is fine by us. Warm-up drinks are advised, but just don't overdo it. President Obama is a verified crowd-pleaser when it comes to drinking games.
OK, here's the recommended Top Ten list, from what we* here at Money Daily think the president will toss out of his mouth, in descending order, from the most frequent to the least. We've also included some bonus chugs for those of you who wish to get completely inebriated or fall into a deep trance or become comatized before bedtime.
It's suggested that if you really want to get your swerve on, you use all these words, but, for the majority of us, picking three or four should be sufficient.
For bonus chugging we're throwing in a couple of caveat words. If the president mentions the "rich," in a negative connotation, as in, "the rich need to be taxed heavily because they've glommed up more than half of everything in the world..." then it's a bonus chug. Also, if the president names three or more specific countries during his speech, that's a bonus chug on the third country mentioned and another bonus chug for each subsequent country mentioned (no cheating rule: if he says the same country over and over, as in, "Iran must not get nukes, Iran must not sell oil, Iran must not mess up our planned obsolescence in Syria, Iran must be bombed into submission, like Ukraine..." that (Iran) only counts as one country, not three or four, but, since he mentioned two other countries there, chug.).
So, if the president says, in one part of his speech, "I love Canada," then follows up later with "Syria's president, Assad, must be droned," and then goes on to say, "Russia, is, has been and always will be, our mortal enemy," that's three and you chug. If he goes onto say something like, "members of the European Union, France, Germany, Spain, etc.," well, we can only suspect that Mr. Obama has read this blog and is just trying to get everybody in America hammered before he gets to the really good lying about how "exceptional" America is and how he's going to work with congress and all that.
And, if he mentions any terrorist groups by name, like Hezbolla, or Boko Haram, and especially ISIS, which will no doubt get mentioned, one chug per group, per mention.
And, for the killer bonus, if the president calls ISIS by their favorite name, ISIL, it's game over, drink until you puke.
OK, make your choices carefully, and remember, drink, but don't drive, or, for that matter, use power tools, for God's sake.
And don't even think of posting your results in our comment section. We literally don't care.
*Actually, it's just me, Fearless Rick, but "we" sounds so much more officious and monumental and, well, bigger.
By now, most of you know the rules about State of the Union Drinking Games, but, to briefly recap, it goes something like this:
 |
We stole this image, but,
we liked it, so we kept it.
|
3. Choose a word (or words) you think the speaker will utter a number of times, and prepare to take a swig or (dangerous, unless you're swilling peach brandy or some other fru-fru-umbrella-type drink) do a shot when the word (or words) is uttered. Those of you pounding 151 Rum or Rumplemintz, you are our heroes.
4. Turn on TV. Prepare to be bored, then angry, then drunk, and probably angrier.
For this year, we decided to list the top ten words we think will be the most popular ones to come off the teleprompter and then the lips of the President, and, no, we did not get an advance copy of the speech, though there have been leaks about the direction the president will be taking the speech.
Now, we are disappointed that the speech will be televised live on the major networks beginning at 9:00 pm ET, which is a little late for those of us in the working class or past middle age (seniors). As for the latter group, seniors, you should plan on eating a little later this evening, say, waiting until maybe 6:30 instead of the usual early-bird 4:25 pm.
If you're a working guy or gal who has to be up at 5:00 am or earlier, well, welcome to 21st century slavery. There are alternatives, you know, but, most of you are suffering from a severe case of normalcy bias, so we'll just let you alone, for now. In any case, many of you may want to warm up with a few cold ones or mixed ones or straight ones or neat ones beforehand. Whatever blows your hair back is fine by us. Warm-up drinks are advised, but just don't overdo it. President Obama is a verified crowd-pleaser when it comes to drinking games.
OK, here's the recommended Top Ten list, from what we* here at Money Daily think the president will toss out of his mouth, in descending order, from the most frequent to the least. We've also included some bonus chugs for those of you who wish to get completely inebriated or fall into a deep trance or become comatized before bedtime.
- 1. Taxes
- 2. Jobs
- 3. Middle Class (since it's two words and doesn't really exist anymore, we suggest taking two drinks whenever this term is used)
- 4. Economy
- 5. Russia
- 6. Terror or terrorism
- 7. Child or children
- 8. Congress
- 9. Education (always popular, but, in reality, a massive charade)
- 10. Stocks or Stock Market
It's suggested that if you really want to get your swerve on, you use all these words, but, for the majority of us, picking three or four should be sufficient.
For bonus chugging we're throwing in a couple of caveat words. If the president mentions the "rich," in a negative connotation, as in, "the rich need to be taxed heavily because they've glommed up more than half of everything in the world..." then it's a bonus chug. Also, if the president names three or more specific countries during his speech, that's a bonus chug on the third country mentioned and another bonus chug for each subsequent country mentioned (no cheating rule: if he says the same country over and over, as in, "Iran must not get nukes, Iran must not sell oil, Iran must not mess up our planned obsolescence in Syria, Iran must be bombed into submission, like Ukraine..." that (Iran) only counts as one country, not three or four, but, since he mentioned two other countries there, chug.).
So, if the president says, in one part of his speech, "I love Canada," then follows up later with "Syria's president, Assad, must be droned," and then goes on to say, "Russia, is, has been and always will be, our mortal enemy," that's three and you chug. If he goes onto say something like, "members of the European Union, France, Germany, Spain, etc.," well, we can only suspect that Mr. Obama has read this blog and is just trying to get everybody in America hammered before he gets to the really good lying about how "exceptional" America is and how he's going to work with congress and all that.
And, if he mentions any terrorist groups by name, like Hezbolla, or Boko Haram, and especially ISIS, which will no doubt get mentioned, one chug per group, per mention.
And, for the killer bonus, if the president calls ISIS by their favorite name, ISIL, it's game over, drink until you puke.
OK, make your choices carefully, and remember, drink, but don't drive, or, for that matter, use power tools, for God's sake.
And don't even think of posting your results in our comment section. We literally don't care.
*Actually, it's just me, Fearless Rick, but "we" sounds so much more officious and monumental and, well, bigger.
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