Tuesday's rally was the best since August of last year, as the spread of the coronavirus appeared to be centered in China and has not advanced with great intensity to the rest of the world. While the situation in China is still dire, with 494 deaths cumulative totaled worldwide as of Tuesday night, the number of cases reported outside of its epicenter appears to have been mostly contained. In the United States, confirmed cases is holding at 11, and the global total outside of China is just 216. That compares well to the number of confirmed cases inside China, at 24,391 and still growing.
There is a very good interactive map and graphical overview from John Hopkins, here.
Also encouraging is news on treatments for the disease on various fronts. Chinese researchers have applied for a patent to employ Gilead Science's Remdesivir as a treatment, which was used to treat the first US patient in Washington state in late January. The first known case of coronavirus in the US was treated with the drug and continues to recover.
In the US, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) is collaborating with Regeneron Pharmaceuticals on a coronavirus treatment.
These positive developments have driven stocks higher after a sudden collapse on the major indices last Friday.
Elsewhere, Nancy Pelosi, apparently still upset that Donald J. Trump is still president of the United States, tore up her copy of Trump's State of the Union speech, immediately after the president had delivered his positive message to the congress. Despite the hissy fit by Speaker of the House Pelosi, Mr. Trump's presidency appears to be sailing along nicely despite partisan Democrat attempts to derail it. The president is expected to be cleared of any wrongdoing on Wednesday at 4:00 pm ET, when the Senate will likely acquit him on impeachment charges brought by the House Democrats.
There was more good economic news prior to Wednesday's market open, as ADP reported January private sector job gains of 291,000, the largest upswing in four years.
Stock futures point to a positive open in New York.
At the Close, Tuesday, February 4, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 28,807.63, +407.82 (+1.44%)
NASDAQ: 9,467.97, +194.57 (+2.10%)
S&P 500: 3,297.59, +48.67 (+1.50%)
NYSE: 13,862.84, +184.91 (+1.35%)
Showing posts with label SOTU. Show all posts
Showing posts with label SOTU. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 5, 2020
Wednesday, January 31, 2018
Stocks Rocked, Presdient Trump Stick-Saves with SOTU
There shouldn't be too much in the way of analysis seeking a rationale for Tuesday's smash-crash in global equity markets.
With treasury's 10-year-note rocking beyond 2.70%, bonds are coming back into favor as investments with little risk, as opposed to over-inflated stocks buoyed by buybacks.
Profit-taking being mostly a participant sport, sellers piled into the pits, sending previously-favored issues down for a second straight session. After the markets closed for the day, life returned to some semblance of normalcy, awaiting disruption, caused primarily by President Trump's stirring State of the Union speech (and the pouting Democrats lack of response).
Trump delivered for his base, as usual, leaving a feeble Joe Kennedy III drooling out the Democrat response, a vain, ineffective attempt to continue undermining the administration's attempts to bring America back to a place of dominance, reverence, and prosperity.
The shock-selling on Monday and Tuesday should likely fade as business continues gearing up, though the path will be made more difficult for the Fortune 500 types as interest rates ascend.
Perhaps investing will return from an overcrowded type of algo-chasing, bid-stuffing, front-running mosh pit to a semi-science based on math skills, management, and fundamental analysis.
Perhaps it will not, but, by all outward appearances, President Trump, at least has the right kind of ideas to move the country - and industry - forward.
At the Close, Tuesday, January 30, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 26,076.89, -362.59 (-1.37%)
NASDAQ: 7,402.48, -64.02 (-0.86%)
S&P 500: 2,822.43, -31.10 (-1.09%)
NYSE Composite: 13,375.51, -149.14 (-1.10%)
With treasury's 10-year-note rocking beyond 2.70%, bonds are coming back into favor as investments with little risk, as opposed to over-inflated stocks buoyed by buybacks.
Profit-taking being mostly a participant sport, sellers piled into the pits, sending previously-favored issues down for a second straight session. After the markets closed for the day, life returned to some semblance of normalcy, awaiting disruption, caused primarily by President Trump's stirring State of the Union speech (and the pouting Democrats lack of response).
Trump delivered for his base, as usual, leaving a feeble Joe Kennedy III drooling out the Democrat response, a vain, ineffective attempt to continue undermining the administration's attempts to bring America back to a place of dominance, reverence, and prosperity.
The shock-selling on Monday and Tuesday should likely fade as business continues gearing up, though the path will be made more difficult for the Fortune 500 types as interest rates ascend.
Perhaps investing will return from an overcrowded type of algo-chasing, bid-stuffing, front-running mosh pit to a semi-science based on math skills, management, and fundamental analysis.
Perhaps it will not, but, by all outward appearances, President Trump, at least has the right kind of ideas to move the country - and industry - forward.
At the Close, Tuesday, January 30, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 26,076.89, -362.59 (-1.37%)
NASDAQ: 7,402.48, -64.02 (-0.86%)
S&P 500: 2,822.43, -31.10 (-1.09%)
NYSE Composite: 13,375.51, -149.14 (-1.10%)
Tuesday, January 30, 2018
Wall Street's Monday Blood-Letting Leads to Global Calamity in Equities
US equity markets were roiled Monday as the dollar jumped and bonds sold off, pushing yields higher, especially on the short end of the curve.
The two-year treasury finished the day at 2.09%, the five at 2.47%, and the benchmark ten-year note briefly touched 2.70% before dipping back to 2.68%. For perspective, consider that the five-year treasury was yielding 2.19% and the ten-year, 2.39, just a month ago. Those are significant moves and, apparently, the stock market has now taken notice as fixed investments begin offering yields competitive with stock dividends, at least.
For more perspective, the S&P and Dow averages suffered their worst one-day drops since early September. The percentage was just two-thirds of a percent on both indices. That shows just how decisive the rally since the election of Donald J. Trump as president has been. There has not been on single-day one percent decline on either in well over a year.
If a sea change in sentiment is occurring, Tuesday's trade could be a determinant day. Futures are pointing well lower and the VIX is cresting over 14 in the US, while global markets are a sea of red.
Japan's NIKKEI was down nearly 1.5%. The Hang Song was off over one percent. European bourses are uniformly lower at their midday.
As the nation prepares for President Trump's first State of the Union speech Tuesday night, more focus could be on internal DC politics, especially the readying for release of the troubling, explosive memo penned by the House Intelligence committee.
On Monday, the Intel committee voted along party lines to declassify the four-page missive. The president has five days to release the memo or keep it classified. Opinion and timing see Thursday as the likely eventual release.
With the FOMC set to keep rates unchanged on Wednesday (the meeting opens Tuesday), that may be the only thing that doesn't change this week.
At the Close, Monday, January 29, 2018:
Dow: 26,439.48, -177.23 (-0.67%)
NASDAQ: 7,466.51, -39.27 (-0.52%)
S&P 500: 2,853.53, -19.34 (-0.67%)
NYSE Composite: 13,524.65, -112.37 (-0.82%)
The two-year treasury finished the day at 2.09%, the five at 2.47%, and the benchmark ten-year note briefly touched 2.70% before dipping back to 2.68%. For perspective, consider that the five-year treasury was yielding 2.19% and the ten-year, 2.39, just a month ago. Those are significant moves and, apparently, the stock market has now taken notice as fixed investments begin offering yields competitive with stock dividends, at least.
For more perspective, the S&P and Dow averages suffered their worst one-day drops since early September. The percentage was just two-thirds of a percent on both indices. That shows just how decisive the rally since the election of Donald J. Trump as president has been. There has not been on single-day one percent decline on either in well over a year.
If a sea change in sentiment is occurring, Tuesday's trade could be a determinant day. Futures are pointing well lower and the VIX is cresting over 14 in the US, while global markets are a sea of red.
Japan's NIKKEI was down nearly 1.5%. The Hang Song was off over one percent. European bourses are uniformly lower at their midday.
As the nation prepares for President Trump's first State of the Union speech Tuesday night, more focus could be on internal DC politics, especially the readying for release of the troubling, explosive memo penned by the House Intelligence committee.
On Monday, the Intel committee voted along party lines to declassify the four-page missive. The president has five days to release the memo or keep it classified. Opinion and timing see Thursday as the likely eventual release.
With the FOMC set to keep rates unchanged on Wednesday (the meeting opens Tuesday), that may be the only thing that doesn't change this week.
At the Close, Monday, January 29, 2018:
Dow: 26,439.48, -177.23 (-0.67%)
NASDAQ: 7,466.51, -39.27 (-0.52%)
S&P 500: 2,853.53, -19.34 (-0.67%)
NYSE Composite: 13,524.65, -112.37 (-0.82%)
Wednesday, January 21, 2015
SOTU 2015 Recap: Drink, Drink, Chug, Vomit; Oscar Wilde For The Win
Money Daily stopped being a daily post blog in March, 2014. While the name remains the same, the posts are now on an intermittent basis, as conditions warrant, though it is advised to read the archives (from 2006-2014) regularly, even daily, for insights and historical perspective.
Just to be fair, we didn't exactly keep pace with the president in our SOTU drinking game.
Having chosen the top four words from our Top Ten list - taxes, jobs, Middle Class, and, economy - President Obama brought down the house on the jobs number, using that specific word (either in the singular or plural form) 24 times before we stopped counting. Smartly, he only said "tax" or "taxes" five times, used the term, "Middle Class" four times, "economy" 13 times and never once used the word "rich."
Where the president excelled, however, actually overwhelming even our rosiest expectations, was in the bonus chugs segment, in which he mentioned ten countries specifically, not including the United States (or America), which technically didn't count, and was, obviously, one of the more frequently used words in his hour-long speech to the nation.
Obama got off early with mentions of Afghanistan and Iraq, and, though it took a while for him to come up with the third county, Japan, he took charge with a quick rattling off of Syria, Russia, Ukraine, Cuba, Iran, Israel and China in short order.
What took the whole drinking effort to new levels was the president's expert rendering of the terrorist naming bonus, in which we instructed that the mention of three terrorist groups would constitute a chug command. Though Obama specifically named only one group by name, he nailed the ISIS-ISIL bonus at 9:45 pm, 35 minutes into the speech, calling his favorite Mideast thugs by their pet name, ISIL, invoking the rule of our game to promptly end in a spellbinding, chug-til-you-puke crescendo.
So intent was the president on getting the nation massively inebriated that he intoned "ISIL" again just one minute later. Strangely enough, his wording was actually foreshadowed by Mrs. Alan Greenspan (aka, Andrea Mitchell), who mentioned ISIL just minutes before the president made his way to the podium. We applaud the otherwise droll Mrs. Greenspan for her literary bravado.
Aside from yet another successful SOTU drinking panacea - Obama's sixth - the president's rhetoric was little more than a rehash of his last two SOTU addresses, replete with promises that will be broken and high-minded principles to which congress and the administration will find difficult, if not impossible, to personalize.
Generally, while we agree in principle with a good deal of Obama's vision of America (though free community college and health care coverage for everyone are a bit too far out on the socialist agenda for our tastes), we have grown tired of waiting for either the president or the congress to come through with specific actions. Empty rhetoric becomes tiresome in short time. Repetition of such tends to be unbearable.
On the humorous, if not tragic, side, the president made the bold claim that inflation was at its lowest level in 50 years, at the precise time that the Federal Reserve is in a death match to avert outright deflation. While the president wishes to point out that low inflation is a grand intention - and it is - the pedals of public policy are being pimped and pumped by the pervicacious pedants at the Fed in exactly the opposite direction, with, thankfully, limited success.
Perhaps, in a perverse and fateful way, the wisdom and wit of Oscar Wilde is prescient:
By all appearances, neither the Fed, the president, nor the American public's aspirations will be satiated.
Just to be fair, we didn't exactly keep pace with the president in our SOTU drinking game.
Having chosen the top four words from our Top Ten list - taxes, jobs, Middle Class, and, economy - President Obama brought down the house on the jobs number, using that specific word (either in the singular or plural form) 24 times before we stopped counting. Smartly, he only said "tax" or "taxes" five times, used the term, "Middle Class" four times, "economy" 13 times and never once used the word "rich."
Where the president excelled, however, actually overwhelming even our rosiest expectations, was in the bonus chugs segment, in which he mentioned ten countries specifically, not including the United States (or America), which technically didn't count, and was, obviously, one of the more frequently used words in his hour-long speech to the nation.
Obama got off early with mentions of Afghanistan and Iraq, and, though it took a while for him to come up with the third county, Japan, he took charge with a quick rattling off of Syria, Russia, Ukraine, Cuba, Iran, Israel and China in short order.
What took the whole drinking effort to new levels was the president's expert rendering of the terrorist naming bonus, in which we instructed that the mention of three terrorist groups would constitute a chug command. Though Obama specifically named only one group by name, he nailed the ISIS-ISIL bonus at 9:45 pm, 35 minutes into the speech, calling his favorite Mideast thugs by their pet name, ISIL, invoking the rule of our game to promptly end in a spellbinding, chug-til-you-puke crescendo.
So intent was the president on getting the nation massively inebriated that he intoned "ISIL" again just one minute later. Strangely enough, his wording was actually foreshadowed by Mrs. Alan Greenspan (aka, Andrea Mitchell), who mentioned ISIL just minutes before the president made his way to the podium. We applaud the otherwise droll Mrs. Greenspan for her literary bravado.
Aside from yet another successful SOTU drinking panacea - Obama's sixth - the president's rhetoric was little more than a rehash of his last two SOTU addresses, replete with promises that will be broken and high-minded principles to which congress and the administration will find difficult, if not impossible, to personalize.
Generally, while we agree in principle with a good deal of Obama's vision of America (though free community college and health care coverage for everyone are a bit too far out on the socialist agenda for our tastes), we have grown tired of waiting for either the president or the congress to come through with specific actions. Empty rhetoric becomes tiresome in short time. Repetition of such tends to be unbearable.
On the humorous, if not tragic, side, the president made the bold claim that inflation was at its lowest level in 50 years, at the precise time that the Federal Reserve is in a death match to avert outright deflation. While the president wishes to point out that low inflation is a grand intention - and it is - the pedals of public policy are being pimped and pumped by the pervicacious pedants at the Fed in exactly the opposite direction, with, thankfully, limited success.
Perhaps, in a perverse and fateful way, the wisdom and wit of Oscar Wilde is prescient:
"There are only two tragedies in life: one is not getting what one wants, and the other is getting it."
By all appearances, neither the Fed, the president, nor the American public's aspirations will be satiated.
Tuesday, January 20, 2015
State of the Union Drinking Game 2015: Multiple Choice, Top Ten Version, with Bonus Chug Words
Money Daily stopped being a daily post blog in March, 2014. While the name remains the same, the posts are now on an intermittent basis, as conditions warrant, though it is advised to read the archives (from 2006-2014) regularly, even daily, for insights and historical perspective.
By now, most of you know the rules about State of the Union Drinking Games, but, to briefly recap, it goes something like this:
1. Prepare your favorite adult beverage, be it beer, wine, or a mixed concoction. Keep refills close at hand.
2. Settle into a comfortable chair or on your couch and get ready for the annual ritual monologue from whomever it is that has been selected (recall that elections are so 20th century, done away with the Supreme Court's decision in Gore v. Bush, circa 2000; now it's all managed by your black box friends at Diebold et. al.) to give the State of the Union speech, always this is the president, so we get Mr. Obama for the sixth or seventh time this year. Honestly, we've lost count because we've been so drunk most of the time.
3. Choose a word (or words) you think the speaker will utter a number of times, and prepare to take a swig or (dangerous, unless you're swilling peach brandy or some other fru-fru-umbrella-type drink) do a shot when the word (or words) is uttered. Those of you pounding 151 Rum or Rumplemintz, you are our heroes.
4. Turn on TV. Prepare to be bored, then angry, then drunk, and probably angrier.
For this year, we decided to list the top ten words we think will be the most popular ones to come off the teleprompter and then the lips of the President, and, no, we did not get an advance copy of the speech, though there have been leaks about the direction the president will be taking the speech.
Now, we are disappointed that the speech will be televised live on the major networks beginning at 9:00 pm ET, which is a little late for those of us in the working class or past middle age (seniors). As for the latter group, seniors, you should plan on eating a little later this evening, say, waiting until maybe 6:30 instead of the usual early-bird 4:25 pm.
If you're a working guy or gal who has to be up at 5:00 am or earlier, well, welcome to 21st century slavery. There are alternatives, you know, but, most of you are suffering from a severe case of normalcy bias, so we'll just let you alone, for now. In any case, many of you may want to warm up with a few cold ones or mixed ones or straight ones or neat ones beforehand. Whatever blows your hair back is fine by us. Warm-up drinks are advised, but just don't overdo it. President Obama is a verified crowd-pleaser when it comes to drinking games.
OK, here's the recommended Top Ten list, from what we* here at Money Daily think the president will toss out of his mouth, in descending order, from the most frequent to the least. We've also included some bonus chugs for those of you who wish to get completely inebriated or fall into a deep trance or become comatized before bedtime.
It's suggested that if you really want to get your swerve on, you use all these words, but, for the majority of us, picking three or four should be sufficient.
For bonus chugging we're throwing in a couple of caveat words. If the president mentions the "rich," in a negative connotation, as in, "the rich need to be taxed heavily because they've glommed up more than half of everything in the world..." then it's a bonus chug. Also, if the president names three or more specific countries during his speech, that's a bonus chug on the third country mentioned and another bonus chug for each subsequent country mentioned (no cheating rule: if he says the same country over and over, as in, "Iran must not get nukes, Iran must not sell oil, Iran must not mess up our planned obsolescence in Syria, Iran must be bombed into submission, like Ukraine..." that (Iran) only counts as one country, not three or four, but, since he mentioned two other countries there, chug.).
So, if the president says, in one part of his speech, "I love Canada," then follows up later with "Syria's president, Assad, must be droned," and then goes on to say, "Russia, is, has been and always will be, our mortal enemy," that's three and you chug. If he goes onto say something like, "members of the European Union, France, Germany, Spain, etc.," well, we can only suspect that Mr. Obama has read this blog and is just trying to get everybody in America hammered before he gets to the really good lying about how "exceptional" America is and how he's going to work with congress and all that.
And, if he mentions any terrorist groups by name, like Hezbolla, or Boko Haram, and especially ISIS, which will no doubt get mentioned, one chug per group, per mention.
And, for the killer bonus, if the president calls ISIS by their favorite name, ISIL, it's game over, drink until you puke.
OK, make your choices carefully, and remember, drink, but don't drive, or, for that matter, use power tools, for God's sake.
And don't even think of posting your results in our comment section. We literally don't care.
*Actually, it's just me, Fearless Rick, but "we" sounds so much more officious and monumental and, well, bigger.
By now, most of you know the rules about State of the Union Drinking Games, but, to briefly recap, it goes something like this:
 |
We stole this image, but,
we liked it, so we kept it.
|
3. Choose a word (or words) you think the speaker will utter a number of times, and prepare to take a swig or (dangerous, unless you're swilling peach brandy or some other fru-fru-umbrella-type drink) do a shot when the word (or words) is uttered. Those of you pounding 151 Rum or Rumplemintz, you are our heroes.
4. Turn on TV. Prepare to be bored, then angry, then drunk, and probably angrier.
For this year, we decided to list the top ten words we think will be the most popular ones to come off the teleprompter and then the lips of the President, and, no, we did not get an advance copy of the speech, though there have been leaks about the direction the president will be taking the speech.
Now, we are disappointed that the speech will be televised live on the major networks beginning at 9:00 pm ET, which is a little late for those of us in the working class or past middle age (seniors). As for the latter group, seniors, you should plan on eating a little later this evening, say, waiting until maybe 6:30 instead of the usual early-bird 4:25 pm.
If you're a working guy or gal who has to be up at 5:00 am or earlier, well, welcome to 21st century slavery. There are alternatives, you know, but, most of you are suffering from a severe case of normalcy bias, so we'll just let you alone, for now. In any case, many of you may want to warm up with a few cold ones or mixed ones or straight ones or neat ones beforehand. Whatever blows your hair back is fine by us. Warm-up drinks are advised, but just don't overdo it. President Obama is a verified crowd-pleaser when it comes to drinking games.
OK, here's the recommended Top Ten list, from what we* here at Money Daily think the president will toss out of his mouth, in descending order, from the most frequent to the least. We've also included some bonus chugs for those of you who wish to get completely inebriated or fall into a deep trance or become comatized before bedtime.
- 1. Taxes
- 2. Jobs
- 3. Middle Class (since it's two words and doesn't really exist anymore, we suggest taking two drinks whenever this term is used)
- 4. Economy
- 5. Russia
- 6. Terror or terrorism
- 7. Child or children
- 8. Congress
- 9. Education (always popular, but, in reality, a massive charade)
- 10. Stocks or Stock Market
It's suggested that if you really want to get your swerve on, you use all these words, but, for the majority of us, picking three or four should be sufficient.
For bonus chugging we're throwing in a couple of caveat words. If the president mentions the "rich," in a negative connotation, as in, "the rich need to be taxed heavily because they've glommed up more than half of everything in the world..." then it's a bonus chug. Also, if the president names three or more specific countries during his speech, that's a bonus chug on the third country mentioned and another bonus chug for each subsequent country mentioned (no cheating rule: if he says the same country over and over, as in, "Iran must not get nukes, Iran must not sell oil, Iran must not mess up our planned obsolescence in Syria, Iran must be bombed into submission, like Ukraine..." that (Iran) only counts as one country, not three or four, but, since he mentioned two other countries there, chug.).
So, if the president says, in one part of his speech, "I love Canada," then follows up later with "Syria's president, Assad, must be droned," and then goes on to say, "Russia, is, has been and always will be, our mortal enemy," that's three and you chug. If he goes onto say something like, "members of the European Union, France, Germany, Spain, etc.," well, we can only suspect that Mr. Obama has read this blog and is just trying to get everybody in America hammered before he gets to the really good lying about how "exceptional" America is and how he's going to work with congress and all that.
And, if he mentions any terrorist groups by name, like Hezbolla, or Boko Haram, and especially ISIS, which will no doubt get mentioned, one chug per group, per mention.
And, for the killer bonus, if the president calls ISIS by their favorite name, ISIL, it's game over, drink until you puke.
OK, make your choices carefully, and remember, drink, but don't drive, or, for that matter, use power tools, for God's sake.
And don't even think of posting your results in our comment section. We literally don't care.
*Actually, it's just me, Fearless Rick, but "we" sounds so much more officious and monumental and, well, bigger.
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