Reactions to this morning's January Durable Goods report ran from the mildly surprised to grossly exuberant, with the most apropos metaphor being the one in which the stock market is Christmas, the traders are children (not far from the truth) and the report was a Tickle Me Elmo doll.
The doll was immediately unwrapped, hugged and unconditionally loved by all the kids, who seemed to wish that Christmas would never end, sending the major indices solidly higher and yields on bonds noticeably lower.
It was as though the year was hard, winter came early and any present would have sufficed to ease some of the woes, though this particular gift was simply perfection, wiping away the past six weeks of anguish and anger, tears, fears and jeers. Even oil gained 2 1/2%, finishing just over $33/bbl.
For the record, the rise in durable goods was 4.9%, the best move in 10 months.
According to a one-time reading of the stock market (today), there are no longer any issues regarding ultra-low interest rates, the slowdown in China (the SSE slipped by 6.41% overnight), chaos in Europe, or the ongoing wars in Syria and Ukraine.
We know this is untrue, but today's action would have one believe that a bull market was in full gear, GDP was booming at 5% and peace had broken out around the globe. Such are the vicissitudes in a market driven solely by headlines and not by fundamentals, because, in reality, the problems have not been resolved - not the ones from last week, last month, last year, or even from 2008. The issues remain, as do the fast-buck artists populating the trading stations and computer terminals of the markets.
Tomorrow should prove more prescient, with the second estimate of 2015 4th quarter GDP hitting the wires at 8:30 am, a good hour prior to ringing the opening bell.
But today was an undoubted victory for the bulls. Let them celebrate tonight and face the music as time presses forward. The Gold Bugs and Silver Eagles continue to be constrained, shackled, handcuffed, quarantined.
Best quote of the day: "Nobody will see it coming." They usually don't.
Tickle These, Elmo:
S&P 500: 1,951.70, +21.90 (1.13%)
Dow: 16,697.29, +212.30 (1.29%)
NASDAQ: 4,582.21, +39.60 (0.87%)
Crude Oil 33.06 +2.83% Gold 1,235.30 -0.31% EUR/USD 1.1028 +0.09% 10-Yr Bond 1.6970 -2.58% Corn 360.25 -1.17% Copper 2.08 -0.86% Silver 15.15 -0.93% Natural Gas 1.79 -2.56% Russell 2000 1,031.58 +0.93% VIX 19.11 -7.77% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.3964 +0.22% USD/JPY 112.8855
Thursday, February 25, 2016
Wednesday, February 24, 2016
Crash Is A Certainty Despite Today's Idiocy
Fundamentals - whether they be in individual stocks or the macro economy - have not mattered for a long time, but today's crash and dash was an epic.
Stocks fell out of bed at the open, with the major indices down one to 1 1/2 percent, and then gained for the remainder of the session ending marginally in the green.
On Friday, the second revision to fourth quarter 2015 GDP will be issued, after the first estimate was a gain of a paltry 0.7%. With proper accounting in place, the US economy likely shrank by 1.25%, but it's unlikely the correct data will show that. The criminal enterprise of government - from local to federal - is about to be hit by a typhoon otherwise known as an unhappy citizenry with a new hero in Donald Trump.
The status quo is about to become status done. It may not happen this week, or next, or for six months, but, rest assured, by this time next year (probably sooner) the United States is going to look very different from the mess the banks and politicians and Wall Street has produced.
Today's nonsense:
S&P 500: 1,929.80, +8.53 (0.44%)
Dow: 16,484.99, +53.21 (0.32%)
NASDAQ: 4,542.61, +39.02 (0.87%)
Crude Oil 32.26 +1.22% Gold 1,230.20 +0.62% EUR/USD 1.1011 -0.08% 10-Yr Bond 1.7420 -0.17% Corn 364.75 -0.55% Copper 2.12 +0.45% Silver 15.26 +0.10% Natural Gas 1.83 +0.27% Russell 2000 1,022.08 +0.98% VIX 20.72 -1.24% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.3925 -0.71% USD/JPY 112.1830 +0.14%
Stocks fell out of bed at the open, with the major indices down one to 1 1/2 percent, and then gained for the remainder of the session ending marginally in the green.
On Friday, the second revision to fourth quarter 2015 GDP will be issued, after the first estimate was a gain of a paltry 0.7%. With proper accounting in place, the US economy likely shrank by 1.25%, but it's unlikely the correct data will show that. The criminal enterprise of government - from local to federal - is about to be hit by a typhoon otherwise known as an unhappy citizenry with a new hero in Donald Trump.
The status quo is about to become status done. It may not happen this week, or next, or for six months, but, rest assured, by this time next year (probably sooner) the United States is going to look very different from the mess the banks and politicians and Wall Street has produced.
Today's nonsense:
S&P 500: 1,929.80, +8.53 (0.44%)
Dow: 16,484.99, +53.21 (0.32%)
NASDAQ: 4,542.61, +39.02 (0.87%)
Crude Oil 32.26 +1.22% Gold 1,230.20 +0.62% EUR/USD 1.1011 -0.08% 10-Yr Bond 1.7420 -0.17% Corn 364.75 -0.55% Copper 2.12 +0.45% Silver 15.26 +0.10% Natural Gas 1.83 +0.27% Russell 2000 1,022.08 +0.98% VIX 20.72 -1.24% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.3925 -0.71% USD/JPY 112.1830 +0.14%
Tuesday, February 23, 2016
Everybody, Limbo!
Stocks and oil slumped, while gold and silver held their own as the market took another pause to reflect on the possibility of a Trump presidency, housing prices which seem to be reaching an affordability limit and a two-week wait until the next FOMC meeting.
For the Trmpster, Las Vegas is a second home to him, so it's only fitting that he's expected to win Tuesday's caucuses in Nevada handily.
The S&P/Case-Shiller index for December, 2015, showed gains in prices for median homes increasing month-over-month and year-over-year.
Stocks appeared to be charting their own course, with stocks falling into the red early and staying near the lows of the day for much of the session. After ramping from losses two weeks ago, the current mini-rally has run out of steam, and there doesn't seem to be much on the bid to push prices higher in the near term.
The price of crude fell by more than 4 1/2% as recent talks of a production freeze by Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran (depending upon which source you wish to believe) turned out to be - like the cease-fire in Syria - all bluster and no bite.
Midweek, stocks are looking at a slight bias to the positive, as Tuesday's losses failed to overcome Monday's winners. Markets are ostensibly entering a late-winter limbo phase, as volatility and geopolitical tensions have leveled off.
S&P 500: 1,921.27, -24.23 (1.25%)
Dow: 16,431.78, -188.88 (1.14%)
NASDAQ: 4,503.58, -67.02 (1.47%)
Crude Oil 31.85 -4.61% Gold 1,227.50 +1.44% EUR/USD 1.1018 -0.07% 10-Yr Bond 1.7450 -1.19% Corn 362.25 -1.43% Copper 2.10 -0.76% Silver 15.31 +0.80% Natural Gas 1.83 -1.61% Russell 2000 1,012.15 -0.94% VIX 20.98 +8.26% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4021 -0.92% USD/JPY 112.0950 -0.76%
For the Trmpster, Las Vegas is a second home to him, so it's only fitting that he's expected to win Tuesday's caucuses in Nevada handily.
The S&P/Case-Shiller index for December, 2015, showed gains in prices for median homes increasing month-over-month and year-over-year.
Stocks appeared to be charting their own course, with stocks falling into the red early and staying near the lows of the day for much of the session. After ramping from losses two weeks ago, the current mini-rally has run out of steam, and there doesn't seem to be much on the bid to push prices higher in the near term.
The price of crude fell by more than 4 1/2% as recent talks of a production freeze by Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran (depending upon which source you wish to believe) turned out to be - like the cease-fire in Syria - all bluster and no bite.
Midweek, stocks are looking at a slight bias to the positive, as Tuesday's losses failed to overcome Monday's winners. Markets are ostensibly entering a late-winter limbo phase, as volatility and geopolitical tensions have leveled off.
S&P 500: 1,921.27, -24.23 (1.25%)
Dow: 16,431.78, -188.88 (1.14%)
NASDAQ: 4,503.58, -67.02 (1.47%)
Crude Oil 31.85 -4.61% Gold 1,227.50 +1.44% EUR/USD 1.1018 -0.07% 10-Yr Bond 1.7450 -1.19% Corn 362.25 -1.43% Copper 2.10 -0.76% Silver 15.31 +0.80% Natural Gas 1.83 -1.61% Russell 2000 1,012.15 -0.94% VIX 20.98 +8.26% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4021 -0.92% USD/JPY 112.0950 -0.76%
Monday, February 22, 2016
Donald Trump Shock Wave Shakes Nation
Winning every available delegate in a truly historic presidential primary victory in South Carolina on Saturday, business billionaire Donald J. Trump now sets his sights on the state of Nevada and its upcoming caucus on Tuesday.
After what appears to be a sure win for Mr. Trump, the big test comes the following Tuesday, when 13 states will hold Republican primary votes, led by the inartfully-named "SEC" states of Alabama, Georgia, Virginia, Arkansas, Texas and Tennessee. Equally important are tests in Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Colorado and Alaska. 595 delegates are up for grabs on March 1. Texas alone accounts for 155, and is one of the few states in which Donald Trump does not lead. There, Ted Cruz, who is a senator from the state, holds a slim advantage, though the latest poll was taken prior to Trump's victory in the Palmetto State.
No candidate that has won both New Hampshire and South Carolina has failed to capture the Republican nomination, a fact that completely eluded the commentators on the Sunday talk show circuit, most of whom spent their air time desperately searching for an antidote to Trump fever, which is sweeping a nation angry with politicians, politics, a do-nothing congress and an administration that has sold its constituency down the proverbial river.
Trump offers a refreshing change of pace from the status quo. From his apparent off-the-cuff remarks to his infectious enthusiasm, Trump embodies a new paradigm for the American electorate and its making the establishment parties and the supine news media quake in its collective booties.
The message is clear and unqualified. Trump promises to build a wall on the Mexican border to halt the flow of illegal immigrants, and, to make sure nobody misses the message, Trump always reminds supporters and detractors alike that he'll make Mexico pay for it. Other policy initiatives include bringing back American jobs from places like Mexico, China and Vietnam, taking better care of veterans, destroying ISIS, cutting taxes for the middle class and business, repatriating profits earned in foreign countries by American enterprises, and protecting the rights of American citizens outlined by the Bill of Rights, especially the second amendment, the right to bear arms.
Not surprisingly, Trump's forthrightness and honesty go a long way in an age dominated by skepticism, innuendo and false prophets. His campaign message to "Make America Great Again" resounds in a country fed up with liberal concepts like multiculturalism, atheism and statist elitism. Trump, while himself a very rich man, is self-made and down-to-earth in ways that Americans have demonstrably appreciated. His approach is common-sensical and sometimes bordering on comical, calling politicians incompetent, self-important and dishonest, most of which applies in spades to the current crop of paid-off crony representatives of lobbyists, big business and special interests.
And then today, there was this:
If Trump is willing to abolish Obamacare, Common Core and reopen the wounds of 9/11 and the Iraq War, why not tackle the biggest buffoons in the room, the rentiers of the Eccles Building, the clueless illuminati which has brought us bubbles and busts and threatens to do the same again?
The world is waiting.
Today's Rigged Results:
S&P 500: 1,945.50, +27.72 (1.45%)
Dow: 16,620.66, +228.67 (1.40%)
NASDAQ: 4,570.61, +66.18 (1.47%)
Crude Oil 33.60 +5.83% Gold 1,209.40 -1.74% EUR/USD 1.1026 -0.96% 10-Yr Bond 1.7660 +1.03% Corn 368.00 +0.68% Copper 2.11 +1.81% Silver 15.19 -1.22% Natural Gas 1.86 -0.16% Russell 2000 1,021.74 +1.16% VIX 19.38 -5.60% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4148 -1.09% USD/JPY 112.9550
After what appears to be a sure win for Mr. Trump, the big test comes the following Tuesday, when 13 states will hold Republican primary votes, led by the inartfully-named "SEC" states of Alabama, Georgia, Virginia, Arkansas, Texas and Tennessee. Equally important are tests in Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Colorado and Alaska. 595 delegates are up for grabs on March 1. Texas alone accounts for 155, and is one of the few states in which Donald Trump does not lead. There, Ted Cruz, who is a senator from the state, holds a slim advantage, though the latest poll was taken prior to Trump's victory in the Palmetto State.
No candidate that has won both New Hampshire and South Carolina has failed to capture the Republican nomination, a fact that completely eluded the commentators on the Sunday talk show circuit, most of whom spent their air time desperately searching for an antidote to Trump fever, which is sweeping a nation angry with politicians, politics, a do-nothing congress and an administration that has sold its constituency down the proverbial river.
Trump offers a refreshing change of pace from the status quo. From his apparent off-the-cuff remarks to his infectious enthusiasm, Trump embodies a new paradigm for the American electorate and its making the establishment parties and the supine news media quake in its collective booties.
The message is clear and unqualified. Trump promises to build a wall on the Mexican border to halt the flow of illegal immigrants, and, to make sure nobody misses the message, Trump always reminds supporters and detractors alike that he'll make Mexico pay for it. Other policy initiatives include bringing back American jobs from places like Mexico, China and Vietnam, taking better care of veterans, destroying ISIS, cutting taxes for the middle class and business, repatriating profits earned in foreign countries by American enterprises, and protecting the rights of American citizens outlined by the Bill of Rights, especially the second amendment, the right to bear arms.
Not surprisingly, Trump's forthrightness and honesty go a long way in an age dominated by skepticism, innuendo and false prophets. His campaign message to "Make America Great Again" resounds in a country fed up with liberal concepts like multiculturalism, atheism and statist elitism. Trump, while himself a very rich man, is self-made and down-to-earth in ways that Americans have demonstrably appreciated. His approach is common-sensical and sometimes bordering on comical, calling politicians incompetent, self-important and dishonest, most of which applies in spades to the current crop of paid-off crony representatives of lobbyists, big business and special interests.
And then today, there was this:
It is so important to audit The Federal Reserve, and yet Ted Cruz missed the vote on the bill that would allow this to be done.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 22, 2016
If Trump is willing to abolish Obamacare, Common Core and reopen the wounds of 9/11 and the Iraq War, why not tackle the biggest buffoons in the room, the rentiers of the Eccles Building, the clueless illuminati which has brought us bubbles and busts and threatens to do the same again?
The world is waiting.
Today's Rigged Results:
S&P 500: 1,945.50, +27.72 (1.45%)
Dow: 16,620.66, +228.67 (1.40%)
NASDAQ: 4,570.61, +66.18 (1.47%)
Crude Oil 33.60 +5.83% Gold 1,209.40 -1.74% EUR/USD 1.1026 -0.96% 10-Yr Bond 1.7660 +1.03% Corn 368.00 +0.68% Copper 2.11 +1.81% Silver 15.19 -1.22% Natural Gas 1.86 -0.16% Russell 2000 1,021.74 +1.16% VIX 19.38 -5.60% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4148 -1.09% USD/JPY 112.9550
Friday, February 19, 2016
Stocks Finish Week Mixed to Flat, as CPI Confuses Markets
Odd for a day of options expiration, the day on Wall Street was marked by light volatility and a narrow trading range, the tone set for confusion prior to the open when CPI showed a spike in January to 0.3%, the biggest jump in more than four years.
On a year-over-year basis, excluding food and energy, CPI grew by 2.2%, the highest inflation rate since June 2012. While on the one hand, the data was supportive of further hikes in the federal funds rate, investors were concerned that such a data-driven move by the Fed might cause further declines in stocks.
With that, equities got stuck in cautious trading, ending just about where they started the day.
The minor moves did little to derail the mini-rally that comprised the better part of the holiday-shortened week.
The Dow finished ahead for the week by 418.15 (+2.62%); the S&P added 53.00 points (+2.84%); the NASDAQ ended ahead by 166.92 (+3.85%). The gains were the best of the seven weeks of trading this year, though the indices remain mired in the red zone.
With no FOMC meeting in February, investors will have to ride along until March 15-16, the dates of the next Open Market Committee, though odds are still in favor of the committee keeping rates at 0.25-0.50%, considering the poor performance of stocks following the first rate hike in December.
As was the case at the end of last year, the Fed is stuck in a serious spot, hoping to hike rates three more times this year, while the US and global economies continue to look ragged, worn out and teetering on the brink of recession.
About the best the Fed can offer in its assessment of US markets is that at least they're doing better than all other advanced economies, including France, UK, Germany, Japan, China, and Australia.
Friday's Totals:
S&P 500: 1,917.78, -0.05 (0.00%)
Dow: 16,391.99, -21.44 (0.13%)
NASDAQ: 4,504.43, +16.89 (0.38%)
Crude Oil 31.71 -3.70% Gold 1,232.10 +0.47% EUR/USD 1.1133 +0.01% 10-Yr Bond 1.7480 -0.63% Corn 365.00 -0.14% Copper 2.09 +0.58% Silver 15.44 +0.02% Natural Gas 1.80 -2.65% Russell 2000 1,010.01 +0.53% VIX 20.53 -5.13% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4406 0.00% USD/JPY 112.5750 0.00%
On a year-over-year basis, excluding food and energy, CPI grew by 2.2%, the highest inflation rate since June 2012. While on the one hand, the data was supportive of further hikes in the federal funds rate, investors were concerned that such a data-driven move by the Fed might cause further declines in stocks.
With that, equities got stuck in cautious trading, ending just about where they started the day.
The minor moves did little to derail the mini-rally that comprised the better part of the holiday-shortened week.
The Dow finished ahead for the week by 418.15 (+2.62%); the S&P added 53.00 points (+2.84%); the NASDAQ ended ahead by 166.92 (+3.85%). The gains were the best of the seven weeks of trading this year, though the indices remain mired in the red zone.
With no FOMC meeting in February, investors will have to ride along until March 15-16, the dates of the next Open Market Committee, though odds are still in favor of the committee keeping rates at 0.25-0.50%, considering the poor performance of stocks following the first rate hike in December.
As was the case at the end of last year, the Fed is stuck in a serious spot, hoping to hike rates three more times this year, while the US and global economies continue to look ragged, worn out and teetering on the brink of recession.
About the best the Fed can offer in its assessment of US markets is that at least they're doing better than all other advanced economies, including France, UK, Germany, Japan, China, and Australia.
Friday's Totals:
S&P 500: 1,917.78, -0.05 (0.00%)
Dow: 16,391.99, -21.44 (0.13%)
NASDAQ: 4,504.43, +16.89 (0.38%)
Crude Oil 31.71 -3.70% Gold 1,232.10 +0.47% EUR/USD 1.1133 +0.01% 10-Yr Bond 1.7480 -0.63% Corn 365.00 -0.14% Copper 2.09 +0.58% Silver 15.44 +0.02% Natural Gas 1.80 -2.65% Russell 2000 1,010.01 +0.53% VIX 20.53 -5.13% BATS 1000 20,682.61 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4406 0.00% USD/JPY 112.5750 0.00%
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