Back To School Not For All; Trump Surges

Well, it's still summer for those of us who go by the calendar rather than a Labor Day or back-to-school regimen.

Actually, most of us hated school, didn't we? And work isn't much better, so... retirement?

Good luck with that.

In any case, stocks are confused, but oil dipped to its lowest level in weeks, which should set firre to the bears' feet. They'll be coming out of summer slumber soon enough to catch another downdraft is our guess, even though the Fed dare not raise the federal funds rate next week.

The likelihood of a Trump presidency grows larger with each passing day, which is enough to cause serious sickness across the investing spectrum, although his victory will prove a dynamic positive in the long run.

It's the short term that scares most people.

Wednesday's Woes:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,034.77, -31.98 (-0.18%)

NASDAQ
5,173.77, 18.52 (0.36%)

S&P 500
2,125.77, -1.25 (-0.06%)

NYSE Composite
10,511.54, -23.82 (-0.23%)

Volatility Returns As Stocks Retrace Friday's Losses

Writing just after noon on Tuesday, stocks seem to be in a certain funk over the future of not just corporate earnings, but the direction of the Federal Reserve and the outcome of the 2016 presidential race.

On the latter, Hillary Clinton's continued lying (even about her health, which is in terrible condition) may be costing her the election, to say nothing of the idea that many people who may have held their noses and voted for the Democrat status quo choice over the maverick Trump, may be changing their minds given that Hillary may not be able to effectively serve as president, yet alone make it to the finish line in the election process come November.

While Trump has held his tongue over Hillary's health issues, he continues to gain in the polls and in popularity with the American people. With the election less than two months away, any more gaffes by Clinton could prove fatal to her presidential aspirations, which, in the long run, would likely be a good thing for the American public.

Wall Street doesn't apparently appreciate the way things are going, though with Hillary losing ground, there's even less chance that the FOMC will announce a rate hike at their meeting next week. Trump's bashing of Janet Yellen earlier is also weighing on markets, and while the stock market may not like the way he's talking, as usual, he's speaking the unblemished truth: stocks are overpriced due to Fed meddling.

Is this how it all ends, with a Trump presidency and a wholesale cleansing of the sick economic policy apparatus?

We can only hope.

After Monday's dead-cat rally, stocks have given back all of those gains by midday, and then some. Get ready for a rocky ride this afternoon and more days of heightened volatility to come as the election takes precedence over all other economic and political events.

Who Pulled The Plug? Friday's Freefall In Perspective

Everything was going along so swimmingly for the elitists of the world.

Interest rates were near or below zero in nearly every developed nation (Japan, the EU, Switzerland, the main components of such madness), but in the USA the Federal Reserve continued to hint that they would like to "normalize" rates, or, in a manner not-so-kind, raise the short term federal funds rate a little, tiny bit more, maybe soon, like at the September FOMC meeting.

Well, stock investors would have no part of that, so, when Fed Governor Rosengren said that the economy was strong enough to warrant a rate hike at the next FOMC meeting, September 20-21,, the market opened with a bang to the downside. Regardless of the other Fed governors - Tarullo and Kaplan - who would speak later on Friday and offer more dovish comments on raising rates, it was too late. Strong hands in the market had made their moves, and no reassurances would correct that.

As Friday wore on, the selling intensified, with the major indices finishing a week that had been eerily quiet and unassuming with the biggest sell-off since January.

Strangely enough, although Fed governors and other economists believe the economy is in pretty good shape, one would be advised to get some input from the man on the street (those 95 million unemployed Americans) who isn't buying it, or from presidential polls, which show Donald Trump about to overtake Hillary Clinton and the status quo in what should amount to a landslide victory and a mandate for major policy overhaul in many areas of governance.

All told, it was a very disturbing week for the powers that be.

Friday's Fallout:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,085.45, -394.46 (-2.13%)

S&P 500
2,127.81, -53.49 (-2.45%)

NASDAQ
5,125.91, -133.57 (-2.54%)

NYSE Composite
10,613.53, -268.80 (-2.47%)

The Week:
Dow: -406.51 (-2.20%)
S&P 500: -52.17 (-2.39%)
NASDAQ: -123.99 (-2.36%)
NYSE Composite: -243.39 (-2.24%)

This IS September Under The Fed's Thumb

No movement. No comment.

Thursday:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,479.91, -46.23 (-0.25%)

S&P 500
2,181.30, -4.86 (-0.22%)

NASDAQ
5,259.48, -24.44 (-0.46%)

NYSE Composite
10,881.76, -8.41 (-0.08)

Seriously, Nothing To See Here; Volatility Dead

It's getting more and more difficult to keep a straight face when discussing the so-called "markets," when they only react to the edicts and pronouncements from the Federal Reserve.

Maybe things are just better nowadays, with lower profits for the S&P 500 companies, but higher share prices. Something is going to give. Some day. Maybe.

Hump Day:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,526.14, -11.98 (-0.06%)

NASDAQ
5,283.93, +8.02 (0.15%)

S&P 500
2,186.16, -0.32 (-0.01%)
^NYA

NYSE Composite
10,890.01, -0.78 (-0.01%)