Amid the swirling winds of Washington's political circus, the nation's financial sector continued to take all the body blows, low blows, and talking head shots dished out by the deep state in perfect stride, carrying the averages to new highs on Wednesday following President Trump's speech before a joint assembly of congress.
With one eye on the political process and the other on the Federal Reserve, stocks continued to dance forward into March, with two key dates upcoming: Friday, March 10, when the February non-farm payroll report is released, and, Wednesday, March 15, the conclusion of a two-day FOMC meeting largely expected to result in an increase in the federal funds rate, from 0.50-0.75 to 0.75 to 1.00.
The jobs report will be crucial in terms of setting the agenda for the Fed governors. If expectations are met and job growth continues to be robust, the Fed will almost certainly announce a rate hike. Falling short of expectations could lead to another month of inaction on interest rates.
In any case, stocks were pumped after the presidential address in which Mr. Trump reiterated promises to build a wall on the border between Mexico and the United States, repeal and replace Obamacare, and set forth an overall economic agenda that will include budget cuts to various agencies, a trillion dollar infrastructure plan and a rejiggering of the tax code.
Should the President succeed even marginally on his lofty economic goals, stock pickers may well find themselves in a condition to ignore any moves by the Fed, freeing speculators from the tired monologue that has led the market for the past eight years running and continue the now third-longest expansion in stock market history.
Shrugging off such ancient notions as fundamental valuations and price-earnings ratios, investors have taken the stock markets literally to uncharted territories. The US dollar remains the currency of choice in most of the world and with that oil and most commodity prices have slumped and/or stabilized. Bonds continue to vacillate, though short term rates are beginning to show signs of stress, especially in consideration of upcoming budget and debt ceiling debates. Also on the minds of many in the investing community are elections in the Netherlands (in two weeks) and France (April 23) where populist candidates in the Donald Trump style are engaged in hotly contested races.
The populist surge sweeping the globe is unlikely to be quelled soon, either by technocrats in the European Union or entrenched politicians across a wide swath of nations, from Malaysia to Japan to Italy and Germany. The middle class in developed nations, having been squeezed financially by globalization, is in nearly full revolt. All the while, giant corporations appear confident that they will weather the ongoing stormy crises.
At the Close, 3.3.17:
Dow: 21,005.71, +2.74 (0.01%)
NASDAQ: 5,870.75, +9.53 (0.16%)
S&P 500: 2,383.12, +1.20 (0.05%)
NYSE Composite: 11,598.37, +22.46 (0.19%)
Since the election in early November, the NYSE Comp. and S&P 500 have closed higher 12 of 17 weeks, the Dow and NASDAQ, 13 of 17.
For the week ending 3.3.17:
Dow: +183.95 (0.88%)
NASDAQ: +25.45 (0.44%)
S&P 500: +15.78 (0.67%)
NYSE Composite: +57.08 (0.49%)
Saturday, March 4, 2017
Friday, March 3, 2017
Stock Markets Backtrack In Advance of February NFP Jobs Report
Editor's Note: Sincere apologies to readers for the incorrect posting this morning. February Non-farm payroll data will not be released until March 10, instead of the usual first Friday of the month. Money Daily reported below that the NFP data would be out TODAY, March 3, but that is not the case. We seriously regret the error.
Following Wednesday's massive upturn in markets on the heels of President Trump's speech, Thursday was a bit of a reality check for gamblers in the Wall Street Casino.
Smart one - and there were plenty of them - took their quick profits and are likely sitting in cash ahead of Friday's non-farm payroll report from the tarnished Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Since February is a short month, expectations for another bump in payrolls may very well be disappointed, to a degree not previously factored.
ADP reported fewer jobs created in the private sector for February than expected. The 139,000 American workers hired to private-sector payrolls in February was below economists' consensus forecast of 155,000. Additionally, ADP revised their January figure to 127,000 from 175,000. That's a mighty big decline which was overshadowed by Wednesday's shock and awe euphoria.
While the NFP does not exactly mirror ADP, it usually tracks pretty well, though the BLS is notorious for using metrics such as the business birth/death model to goose numbers toward the desired result.
Non-farm payroll data will be released Friday morning at 8:30 am ET. There may well be fireworks if the number falls short of the lowered-bar expectations of 157,000 net new jobs.
At The Close, 3.2.17:
Dow: 21,002.97, -112.58 (-0.53%)
NASDAQ: 5,861.22, -42.81 (-0.73%)
S&P 500: 2,381.92, -14.04 (-0.59%)
NYSE Composite: 11,575.91, -85.31 (-0.73%)
Following Wednesday's massive upturn in markets on the heels of President Trump's speech, Thursday was a bit of a reality check for gamblers in the Wall Street Casino.
Smart one - and there were plenty of them - took their quick profits and are likely sitting in cash ahead of Friday's non-farm payroll report from the tarnished Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Since February is a short month, expectations for another bump in payrolls may very well be disappointed, to a degree not previously factored.
ADP reported fewer jobs created in the private sector for February than expected. The 139,000 American workers hired to private-sector payrolls in February was below economists' consensus forecast of 155,000. Additionally, ADP revised their January figure to 127,000 from 175,000. That's a mighty big decline which was overshadowed by Wednesday's shock and awe euphoria.
While the NFP does not exactly mirror ADP, it usually tracks pretty well, though the BLS is notorious for using metrics such as the business birth/death model to goose numbers toward the desired result.
Non-farm payroll data will be released Friday morning at 8:30 am ET. There may well be fireworks if the number falls short of the lowered-bar expectations of 157,000 net new jobs.
At The Close, 3.2.17:
Dow: 21,002.97, -112.58 (-0.53%)
NASDAQ: 5,861.22, -42.81 (-0.73%)
S&P 500: 2,381.92, -14.04 (-0.59%)
NYSE Composite: 11,575.91, -85.31 (-0.73%)
Thursday, March 2, 2017
Trump Effect: Stocks Roar To New All-Time Highs Following Presidential Address
How important President Donald Trump's speech before a joint assembly on congress Tuesday night was is not easy to gauge, but, from a Wall Street perspective, he must have hit the high notes perfectly because all major averages were straight up at the opening bell and continued to add to gains throughout Wednesday's session.
The Dow, which blew away the 20,000 Rubicon less than a month ago, added nearly 1.5%, or 303 points, its largest one-day gain since early December. With Industrials leading the way, the other three major averages broke out as well, with the S&P pretty much reaching highs that analysts had been predicting as end-of-year results, yet we're barely two months into the new year.
How this kind of euphoria will eventually manifest itself is still a mystery, especially with stocks tacking higher despite consistent warnings of a valuation trap being set. While stocks continue to ramp on a daily basis, corporate reports are not following the same tune. Additionally, analysts from various houses also revised first quarter GDP estimates lower, with Goldman Sachs and the Atlanta Fed looking for 1.8% growth. JP Morgan and Bank of America are even more pessimistic, at 1.5% and 1.3%, respectively.
In the main, what companies behind the stocks are counting on is a relaxed regulatory environment under President Trump's administration. The President has already issued a variety of pro-business executive orders and his commitment to repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) is also being viewed as a positive on two fronts. First, it will free up consumer funds from an expensive mandated coverage nightmare; second, companies will probably get breaks as well in group coverage.
Adding to the speculative high spirits are items currently under the radar such as the President's budget, which includes massive cost-cutting across agencies, a one trillion dollar infrastruture plan that Mr. Trump touched on it in his speech, and trade negotiations with countries outside the framework of international treaties such as NAFTA, TPP and the World Bank.
All told, President Trump's first six weeks in office have been nothing short of miraculous for stocks, though it will take some time to see how it all plays out. Either stock pickers have been set up for a major catastrophe or the enthusiasm and honesty of the new president will indeed guide America and American business interests to new heights.
Lurking in the shadows behind the presidential bluster is the Federal Reserve, which meets in two weeks to decide whether to raise federal funds rates or keep them at current levels. Money is on them keeping the rates at the current 0.50-0.75, though even an increase of 25 basis points would seem to be inadequate to quiet Wall Street's enthusiasm.
At the Close, 3.1.17:
Dow: 21,115.55 +303.31 (1.46%)
NASDAQ: 5,904.03 +78.59 (1.35%)
S&P 500: 2,395.96, +32.32 (1.37%)
NYSE Composite: 11,661.22, +148.83 (1.29%)
The Dow, which blew away the 20,000 Rubicon less than a month ago, added nearly 1.5%, or 303 points, its largest one-day gain since early December. With Industrials leading the way, the other three major averages broke out as well, with the S&P pretty much reaching highs that analysts had been predicting as end-of-year results, yet we're barely two months into the new year.
How this kind of euphoria will eventually manifest itself is still a mystery, especially with stocks tacking higher despite consistent warnings of a valuation trap being set. While stocks continue to ramp on a daily basis, corporate reports are not following the same tune. Additionally, analysts from various houses also revised first quarter GDP estimates lower, with Goldman Sachs and the Atlanta Fed looking for 1.8% growth. JP Morgan and Bank of America are even more pessimistic, at 1.5% and 1.3%, respectively.
In the main, what companies behind the stocks are counting on is a relaxed regulatory environment under President Trump's administration. The President has already issued a variety of pro-business executive orders and his commitment to repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) is also being viewed as a positive on two fronts. First, it will free up consumer funds from an expensive mandated coverage nightmare; second, companies will probably get breaks as well in group coverage.
Adding to the speculative high spirits are items currently under the radar such as the President's budget, which includes massive cost-cutting across agencies, a one trillion dollar infrastruture plan that Mr. Trump touched on it in his speech, and trade negotiations with countries outside the framework of international treaties such as NAFTA, TPP and the World Bank.
All told, President Trump's first six weeks in office have been nothing short of miraculous for stocks, though it will take some time to see how it all plays out. Either stock pickers have been set up for a major catastrophe or the enthusiasm and honesty of the new president will indeed guide America and American business interests to new heights.
Lurking in the shadows behind the presidential bluster is the Federal Reserve, which meets in two weeks to decide whether to raise federal funds rates or keep them at current levels. Money is on them keeping the rates at the current 0.50-0.75, though even an increase of 25 basis points would seem to be inadequate to quiet Wall Street's enthusiasm.
At the Close, 3.1.17:
Dow: 21,115.55 +303.31 (1.46%)
NASDAQ: 5,904.03 +78.59 (1.35%)
S&P 500: 2,395.96, +32.32 (1.37%)
NYSE Composite: 11,661.22, +148.83 (1.29%)
Wednesday, March 1, 2017
Dow Winning Streak Ends At 12, Should Resume Promptly
Stocks ended a historic run of 12 straight winning sessions on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, tying the mark set in January of 1987, finishing the month of February on a dour note, though overall, stocks were fantastic for the month and so far in 2017.
With a possible March rate hike still two weeks away, there's still plenty of time to jump upon the Wall Street bandwagon. Since stocks apparently have no downside, more money will be pumped into the market by the almighty algos, probably beginning on March 1.
The old adage, "don't fight the tape," is in play as fundamentals have been tossed to the curb in favor of momentum-chasing. Stocks should continue to climb until they don't.
At The Close, 2.28.17:
Dow: 20,812.24, -25.20 (-0.12%)
NASDAQ: 5,825.44, -36.46 (-0.62%)
S&P 500: 2,363.64, -6.11 (-0.26%)
NYSE Composite: 11,512.39, -45.96 (-0.40%)
With a possible March rate hike still two weeks away, there's still plenty of time to jump upon the Wall Street bandwagon. Since stocks apparently have no downside, more money will be pumped into the market by the almighty algos, probably beginning on March 1.
The old adage, "don't fight the tape," is in play as fundamentals have been tossed to the curb in favor of momentum-chasing. Stocks should continue to climb until they don't.
At The Close, 2.28.17:
Dow: 20,812.24, -25.20 (-0.12%)
NASDAQ: 5,825.44, -36.46 (-0.62%)
S&P 500: 2,363.64, -6.11 (-0.26%)
NYSE Composite: 11,512.39, -45.96 (-0.40%)
Tuesday, February 28, 2017
Coincidence Or Conspiracy? The Art Cashin - Fearless Rick Echo Chamber
Not one to expectantly toot one's own horn, Money Daily continues to display some market sense, the latest iteration being the confluence of the weekly market recap post from Sunday, February 26, Dow At Record Highs 11 Staight Sessions; Eye On PPT, Central Bank Intervention dovetailing with legendary floor trader Art Cashin's commentary at King World News the same day.
In the nearly 15-minute audio, Cashin, Director of Floor Operations for UBS, touched (near the end of the broadcast) on the very same subject matter as Money Daily, namely, central bank intervention in markets.
Like Fearless Editor and Publisher, Rick Gagliano, Cashin - undeniably a more expert analyst than our own - sees intervention as unsettling to markets, comparing the intrusion to a rigged poker game, and sees danger in such action. As is the usual case, Mr. Cashin plows some new ground as well, coining the phrase "intellectual civil war" in describing the conditions in Northern vs. Southern Italy and touching upon other established, mostly European nations.
In defense of his moderate style, Cashin opines that his success has been largely based upon, quoting him,
Good stuff, indeed, and well worth a listen.
Keeping in mind central bank intervention, i.e., buying at all-time highs, the Dow made a new record close for the 12th straight session, that, in itself, should be cause for alarm... the one that never goes off at market tops (Old Wall Street saying: "they never ring the bell at the top").
The Dow has never closed higher for 13 straight sessions, the most recent run tying the mark set in January 1987, which, as market observers know well, was the precursor of one of the most devastating crashes in market history.
At the Close, 2.27.17:
Dow: 20,837.44, +15.68 (0.08%)
NASDAQ: 5,861.90, +16.59 (0.28%)
S&P 500: 2,369.75, +2.41 (0.10%)
NYSE Composite: 11,558.35, +17.06 (0.15%)
In the nearly 15-minute audio, Cashin, Director of Floor Operations for UBS, touched (near the end of the broadcast) on the very same subject matter as Money Daily, namely, central bank intervention in markets.
Like Fearless Editor and Publisher, Rick Gagliano, Cashin - undeniably a more expert analyst than our own - sees intervention as unsettling to markets, comparing the intrusion to a rigged poker game, and sees danger in such action. As is the usual case, Mr. Cashin plows some new ground as well, coining the phrase "intellectual civil war" in describing the conditions in Northern vs. Southern Italy and touching upon other established, mostly European nations.
In defense of his moderate style, Cashin opines that his success has been largely based upon, quoting him,
...because the first thing I do when I enter a room is look for the exit signs.
Good stuff, indeed, and well worth a listen.
Keeping in mind central bank intervention, i.e., buying at all-time highs, the Dow made a new record close for the 12th straight session, that, in itself, should be cause for alarm... the one that never goes off at market tops (Old Wall Street saying: "they never ring the bell at the top").
The Dow has never closed higher for 13 straight sessions, the most recent run tying the mark set in January 1987, which, as market observers know well, was the precursor of one of the most devastating crashes in market history.
At the Close, 2.27.17:
Dow: 20,837.44, +15.68 (0.08%)
NASDAQ: 5,861.90, +16.59 (0.28%)
S&P 500: 2,369.75, +2.41 (0.10%)
NYSE Composite: 11,558.35, +17.06 (0.15%)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
