Trump and Republicans Carry the Day (and Water) for Wall Street

Just to be certain that the big government shutdown over the weekend was a big puff of smoke that left nothing other than a fog and stench, here is a comment made by a presumably knowledgeable person on how big business perceives the machinations and meanderings of the politicians in Washington, DC.

So far Wall Street is the dog that didn't bark in the night time. Indeed, all of Big Business is.

I work coordinating business meetings, mostly for Fortune 500 companies; the companies that spend enough on meetings to bother hiring professionals to handle them. I'm usually pretty busy during these meetings, but I keep an ear open for interesting tidbits when I can, and sometimes I have nothing to do but listen to every word.

Usually these companies do discuss politics, and how they plan to position themselves vis-a-vis the political climate. Not lately, they haven't been. Almost nary a peep. And that includes pharmaceutical companies, which usually are about as attuned politically as anyone.

The companies I work for, and you've heard of them, are ignoring:

- Attempts to change ACA (they know the entire healthcare finance system is already broken anyway, and they have to buy their employees health insurance no matter what happens so they don't care);

- Efforts to raise the US minimum wage to $15/hr. (they're already planning to raise pay because they can't hire people at the prevailing suppressed wages);

- The tax bill (they already pay corporate taxes at an effective rate so much lower than the headline rates it doesn't matter, and their top executives already mask most of their income from the tax system so effectively no legislation conceivable in the current political climate matters at all to them);

- Immigration (they simply don't care because they have no liability or consequences no matter what);

- Carbon-based fuels (they're all getting out of them anyway because they're too expensive and inefficient; if Trump wants to subsidize them while they're doing it they're fine with that);

- Government regulations (they pay their way out of them anyway, one way or the other, and write off the costs);

- Global trade agreements (all the methods they use to evade existing duties, tariffs and sanctions supersede such things anyway); etc.

- War and rumors of war (None of the wars involve or will involve anything they have an interest in. They have deep enough contacts to know there isn't going to be a nuclear war, and no other wars on the table pose more risk than profit opportunities to corporate interests);

- Ethics investigations, "RussiaGate," Uranium 1, PizzaGate, FISA-gate, or any of the popcorn nonsense dominating the partisan media (who invented ad campaigns in the first place?).

Indeed, most of the issues we concern ourselves with don't even interest the executives of the biggest corporations in America.

This is reflected in Wall Street. Where it matters, they know they've got the system dicked. It simply doesn't matter to them one way or the other, which faction of the Oligarchy has the upper hand today or tomorrow.

Here's the link to the comment (from a site on which the Money Daily staff has been banned twice for speaking truth to power).

Thus, stocks gained on the eve of the shutdown and also on the end of the shutdown. The shutdown was bad theater engineered by obstructionist Democrats who have nothing left in their quiver of attack arrows outside of assiduously assaulting the sitting president.

...and, apparently, it wasn't even close to being enough, as their gambit blew up in their collectivist faces, and especially so on the visage of one NY Senator Chuck Schumer, a sell-out to his constituents and to his party.

At the Close, Monday, January 22, 2018:
Dow: 26,214.60, +142.88 (+0.55%)
NASDAQ: 7,408.03, +71.65 (+0.98%)
S&P 500: 2,832.97, +22.67 (+0.81%)
NYSE Composite: 13,470.37, +85.91 (+0.64%)

Stocks Slip As Ryan Pulls Obamacare Repeal/Replace Bill

Lacking the necessary support from rank-and-file Republicans, House Speaker Paul Ryan yanked the Obamacare Repeal and Replace Bill that had been scheduled for a vote today in the House of Representatives just as US stock markets closed.

The bill had been on shaky ground for weeks as various splinter groups within the Republican party had issues with the wording and its hasty implementation.

According to various polls, the American public didn't appreciate the bill much either, as it was getting to be regarded as Obamacare-Lite.

This leaves the Republicans, especially Speaker Ryan, with plenty of egg on their faces and an uphill battle in the congress against entrenched, obstructionist Democrats.

Most sane people are seeking relief from the poorly-named Affordable Care Act (ACA) that has featured skyrocketing healthcare premiums and absurd deductibles, most upwards of $5000 per year.

Though the official word that the bill had been pulled came moments before the Wall Street close, apparently there were many who saw it coming. The Dow Industrials ended a see-saw week with a near 60-point loss. The S&P and NYSE Composite finished with losses as well, though the NASDAQ managed a small gain.

All major indices were lower for the week.

At The Close, 3/24/17:
Dow: 20,596.72, -59.86 (-0.29%)
NASDAQ: 5,828.74, +11.04 (0.19%)
S&P 500: 2,343.98, -1.98 (-0.08%)
NYSE Composite: 11,419.14, -11.76 (-0.10%)

For the Week:
Dow: -317.90 (-1.52%)
NASDAQ: -72-26 (-1.22%)
S&P 500: -34.27 (-1.44%)
NYSE Composite: -170.13 (-1.47)

Trump Effect: Stocks Roar To New All-Time Highs Following Presidential Address

How important President Donald Trump's speech before a joint assembly on congress Tuesday night was is not easy to gauge, but, from a Wall Street perspective, he must have hit the high notes perfectly because all major averages were straight up at the opening bell and continued to add to gains throughout Wednesday's session.

The Dow, which blew away the 20,000 Rubicon less than a month ago, added nearly 1.5%, or 303 points, its largest one-day gain since early December. With Industrials leading the way, the other three major averages broke out as well, with the S&P pretty much reaching highs that analysts had been predicting as end-of-year results, yet we're barely two months into the new year.

How this kind of euphoria will eventually manifest itself is still a mystery, especially with stocks tacking higher despite consistent warnings of a valuation trap being set. While stocks continue to ramp on a daily basis, corporate reports are not following the same tune. Additionally, analysts from various houses also revised first quarter GDP estimates lower, with Goldman Sachs and the Atlanta Fed looking for 1.8% growth. JP Morgan and Bank of America are even more pessimistic, at 1.5% and 1.3%, respectively.

In the main, what companies behind the stocks are counting on is a relaxed regulatory environment under President Trump's administration. The President has already issued a variety of pro-business executive orders and his commitment to repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) is also being viewed as a positive on two fronts. First, it will free up consumer funds from an expensive mandated coverage nightmare; second, companies will probably get breaks as well in group coverage.

Adding to the speculative high spirits are items currently under the radar such as the President's budget, which includes massive cost-cutting across agencies, a one trillion dollar infrastruture plan that Mr. Trump touched on it in his speech, and trade negotiations with countries outside the framework of international treaties such as NAFTA, TPP and the World Bank.

All told, President Trump's first six weeks in office have been nothing short of miraculous for stocks, though it will take some time to see how it all plays out. Either stock pickers have been set up for a major catastrophe or the enthusiasm and honesty of the new president will indeed guide America and American business interests to new heights.

Lurking in the shadows behind the presidential bluster is the Federal Reserve, which meets in two weeks to decide whether to raise federal funds rates or keep them at current levels. Money is on them keeping the rates at the current 0.50-0.75, though even an increase of 25 basis points would seem to be inadequate to quiet Wall Street's enthusiasm.

At the Close, 3.1.17:
Dow: 21,115.55 +303.31 (1.46%)
NASDAQ: 5,904.03 +78.59 (1.35%)
S&P 500: 2,395.96, +32.32 (1.37%)
NYSE Composite: 11,661.22, +148.83 (1.29%)

Best Wishes To President Trump; The Wall, Obamacare, Education

It's Official!

Donald J. Trump is the 45th president of the United States of America.

And the markets apparently loved it. The Dow was up. The NASDAQ was up. The S&P 500 was up. So was the Composite, the Nikkei, Gold, Silver, Oil, the dollar. Call it a relief rally. Market participants were relieved that the uncertainties of the past two years of electioneering, mudslinging, maligning, and campaigning were at long last, over. At least now some people can get to work, least of all the new president, like him, loathe him, or feign indifference, he's safely ensconced within the White House walls, with nary a cut, scrape, bruise, or wound.

At least that's what we're seeing through the prism of the news media. There were more than a few bruised egos at the swearing in ceremony on the West steps of the Capitol, facing the Washington and Lincoln monuments, but, some of the more expansive egos were soon swept off the stage and sent packing. The Clintons and the Obamas were whisked into obscurity by the forces of change.

As for our new president, Mr. Trump promises to be, at the very least, entertaining, if not outrageous. While such antics as late-night tweeting and calling people names may not sit well with his establishment critics, the American public will likely relish the shift from the obfuscation, misinformation, and underhandedness which typified the last 16 years of presidential conduct to a more - on the surface - open, progressive (that's a real word, meaning a real effort toward getting things done, not the fancy adversarial adjective applied over the last two decades by liberals), and positive approach to government policy.

It is obviously too early to tell whether President Trump will usher in a new age of American exceptionalism, but there is little doubt that he will try his best to keep his promises and work untiringly toward restoration of traditional American vales. There's also little doubt that he will face significant opposition from the left, the right, his own party, the Democrat party, liberal wingnuts who will protest anything at the drop of a hat, foreign leaders, the Twitterati, Facebook foes, and just about anybody who has an opinion on anything, many of whom will appear regularly on the vicious, unencumbered media whores doing their dirty work for the forces of their paymasters.

That's just how it goes when you rise to the top of the heap as Donald Trump has done. There's always somebody looking to knock you off your mighty throne, literally or figuratively. As for our sentiments here at the Money Daily headquarters, we wish him all the best and will continue to support him - as we did throughout the election process - as best we can. If he can deliver on even half of his campaign promises that would be quite an accomplishment, but we'll settle for three big items:

1. Build the damn wall.
2. Repeal the Affordable Care Act (it does not have to be replaced; we already have too many insurance companies, pharmaceutical companies and government involved in health care and would like to see much of that overhead removed)
3. Send education back to the states. The nation is too large and diverse (sorry, but the word does have its place) for a "one-size-fits-all" approach. Besides, the federal intrusion into education has been about as successful as the war on drugs or the war on poverty. Cut the Department of Education in half, or by two thirds, or, preferably, obliterate it.

In the meantime, Money Daily will try to stay out of politics and into money and economics, but, seeing the President and his staffers occasionally and regularly knee-cap the media whores wouldn't meet with any resistance from these parts.

Let the politicians do the dirty work. We'll aim to interpret the effects.

Let's start with a look down below at the weekly results. All four of the major indices were lower on the week, and that may be significant, but will be more so if that becomes a trend. The next two weeks are almost certain to be wild ones in terms of politicking and figurative bomb-throwing from the left, the right, and everywhere in between, but, if stocks continue to deteriorate (which happens to be our best guess for now), it's going to put more pressure on the new president. Not that he should do anything about it since he has no control of financial markets, but the media will crow endlessly about how the economy is going into the tank under the Trump administration.

We'll leave it there, for now. It's going to get a whole lot more interesting in coming weeks and months.

At The Close 1.20.17:
Dow: 19,827.25, +94.85 (0.48%)
NASDAQ: 5,555.33, +15.25 (0.28%)
S&P 500: 2,271.31, +7.62 (0.34%)
NYSE Composite: 11,192.79, +43.94 (0.39%)

For the Week Ended 1.20.17:
Dow: -58.48 (-0.29%)
NASDAQ: -18.78 (-0.34%)
S&P 500: -3.33 (-0.15%)
NYSE Composite: -34.38 (-0.31)

Stocks Slump, Regain Ground In Anxious Session

Yesterday, it was big pharma that took a hit after Donald Trump singled them out in his press conference, saying that the US government would begin bidding lower prices for many prescription drugs.

Today, health care insurance companies took the hit - if only briefly - as the senate pushed forward a bill to repeal the Affordable Care Act (ACA), otherwise known as Obamacare. Aetna, Anthem, Cigna and United Health were among a handful of companies that felt some shock at the open.

The Senate voted 51-48 on a measure to repeal the current president's signature health initiative. The measure now will move to the house where its passage is all but assured, with the membership heavily weighted with Republicans.

As for the rest of the market, stocks went red at the open and trimmed early losses after 11:00 am ET. The Dow was down more than 180 points in the early going, but manage to recover almost two thirds of the losses as the session dragged forward.

Missing from the narrative today was the chorus of "Dow 20000," as the industrial index extended its failed attempt at the historic milestone for the 22nd straight session.

Maybe tomorrow...

At The Close 1.12.16:
Dow: 19,891.00, -63.28 (-0.32%)
NASDAQ: 5,547.49, -16.16 (-0.29%)
S&P 500: 2,270.44, -4.88 (-0.21%)
NYSE Composite: 11,204.15, -22.63 (-0.20%)

Stocks (and Oil) Can't Catch a Break

It was another ugly day on Wall Street, not because stocks finished higher, but because of how they got there.

Right out of the gate, the major averages were soaring, but all of the early gains were wiped away shortly after 11:00 am. Stocks zig-zagged through the midday, going positive, then negative, and, finally, just after 2:00 pm, decided that upwards would be the most-favored path, so the bid was in.

However, prior to that late-afternoon spike, there were more than a fair share of winners and losers, most of them being of the losing variety. Of the top ten most actives, nine of them were in the red, even with the indices moving decidedly positive. Only Apple (AAPL) was a winner, for reasons of which nobody could rightfully discern.

Of those nine losers, eight of them were energy or materials-related. The oddball in the group was Bank of America (BAC), which continues to shed market cap and is now in the early running for dog stock of the year (but, it's early, though since it's a bank, our money is on them).

Energy and material stocks were actively trending lower because of the all-too-obvious drop in the price of crude oil and just about anything else that falls into the commodity sphere. Oil continued to decline, price-wise, today reaching below $30/barrel for WTI crude as inventories rose and demand fell, giving the slick stuff a double whammy of bad news.

On the NYSE, losers and winners were nearly even, and there the disparity between the new highs (9) and new lows (564) was cause for alarm. On the NASDAQ, a similar story was unfolding, though breadth was slightly better. New highs numbered only 12, with 352 hitting new lows. That's where the real story is taking place. There are far too few stocks leading the market (large caps) and far too many small and mid-caps weighing it down.

These imbalances have much to do with the ongoing debate over wealth inequality. The policies of the Fed not only have benefitted the richest individuals in the society, they've also been particularly advantageous to the larger, better-established listed companies. The big firms have better access to big money for stock buybacks, primarily, while the smaller firms languish in the all-too-real mundane world where profits matter and cost-cutting continues.

Smaller firms have a harder time making their numbers in a slumping economy and are first hit when business begins to slide, or, at least that's how the current crop of traders has been conditioned. Slumping oil prices has morphed into an all-around slap-down of commodities in general, which, in normal times would be good for business, but today the low prices for everything from aluminum to copper to zinc has spread over to consumer goods, most of which are manufactured overseas in sweatshops at minimal cost.

The other side of the equation, that being consumer demand, has been hollowed out by years of fleecing by giant corporations and the Fed's insistence that nobody earn a dime in interest. While Wall Street could afford to speculate and spend because the spigot was wide open, Main Street tightened its belt until consumers are able to only afford the bare necessities after paying more in taxes, fees, credit card interest, student loans and, especially, health care. If there's one culprit upon which most of the blame can be laid for the rottenness of the general economy, it has to be the misappropriately-named Affordable Care Act, which acted as a wealth transfer mechanism from the pockets of ordinary citizens into the health care morass of hospitals, providers, big pharma and insurance companies. It has drained the economy of whatever excess had been created by reduced gas and fuel prices.

Today's closing quotes:
S&P 500: 1,938.68, +15.01 (0.78%)
Dow: 16,516.22, +117.65 (0.72%)
NASDAQ: 4,685.92, +47.93 (1.03%)

Crude Oil 30.57 -2.67% Gold 1,086.00 -0.93% EUR/USD 1.0849 +0.01% 10-Yr Bond 2.1020 -2.59% Corn 358.00 +0.35% Copper 1.96 -0.63% Silver 13.77 -0.69% Natural Gas 2.26 -5.68% Russell 2000 1,044.70 +0.27% VIX 22.47 -7.53% BATS 1000 20,630.49 +0.55% GBP/USD 1.4440 +0.04% USD/JPY 117.7805 +0.04%

ObamaCare a Complete Failure, May Prove to Bring About Peoples' Salvation from Over-reaching Government

Let's face it, ObamaCare, the health insurance mandate that all Americans MUST purchase, is an unmitigated disaster which, thankfully, threatens to bring down the entire government health care apparatus, and hopefully, the rest of the government with it.

The hits just keep coming for ObamaCare.

On Sunday, a major data hub failed, once again making the website, HeathCare.gov, inoperable.

Maybe the worst design flaw of ObamaCare is not the website, which hasn't worked since its rollout, October 1, but the soaring deductibles under the Affordable Care Act.

Experts are also questioning the security of the government's health care site, wherein customer data, including social security numbers, bank accounts and credit card information, can be easily hacked and stolen.

More lawmakers, including a swath of Democrats are now beginning to call for extensions to the "mandatory" filing deadlines, while others still are calling for the resignation of Health & Human Services (HHS) Secretary Kathleen Sebelius.

Members of the House Oversight Committee have sent letters to 11 of the companies involved with design and implementation of HealthCare.gov, threatening subpoenas if the companies don't supply the information promptly.

With any luck, the administration, in its abject refusal to release data about the botched rollout of the President's signature social program, may trigger a constitutional crisis, which would play right into the hands of both sides, who do nothing and prefer to shut down the government rather than deal with issues of importance to the American people.

How long it will take for people in America to stop complying with demands from an out-of-control, opaque, oppressive government that continues to operate outside the rigors of the constitution is unknown, but one thing is for sure: Obamacare is pushing the limits of people's patience.

On the other hand, the American public has so far tolerated rigged elections, countless government lies, being spied upon by the NSA, the closure of national parks and monuments, $17 trillion in debt, trillions more in unfunded liabilities, so maybe nothing will change until cities are drone-struck and people hauled off to FEMA camps.

In unrelated news, the artificially-life-supported stock indices continue to display symptoms of atrophy at or close to all-time highs. Volume remains at distressed levels, but that's what you get when the same computer algos trade the same stocks, day-in and day-out, ad nauseum, forever. Crash is an optimistic outcome.

Another Tesla exploded into flames a week ago (unreported), and Lou Reed is dead.

Disgust? It's what's for breakfast, lunch, and dinner, these days.

Dow 15,569.06, -1.22 (0.01%)
Nasdaq 3,940.13, -3.23 (0.08%)
S&P 500 1,762.12, +2.35 (0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 2.51%, +0.01
NYSE Volume 3,098,436,250
Nasdaq Volume 1,715,927,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2633-3071
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 357-27
WTI crude oil: 98.68, +0.83
Gold: 1,352.20, -0.30
Silver: 22.54, -0.101
Corn: 430.75, -9.25