Stocks Take A Break, All Major Indices In Red

The S&P just set a record as the longest bull market in US history, the Dow has been on a tear and the Dow Transportation Index just set a new all-time high two days ago, so, it's perfectly natural for stocks to take a breather here.

It is, after all, the 23rd of August, the proverbial dog days of summer. Plenty of people needed to take a break, look things over, calm down, have another mai tai by the pool and relax. Markets have been running at breakneck speed thanks to the Trump hate, tariffs, emerging market slide, Turkey's currency crisis, Italy's break away government, et. al.

Thursday's trading differed from previous session in that all four of the major indices finished lower. Lately, the pattern has been for split markets, with the Dow and NASDAQ moving in opposite directions. Though the losses were not significant, the fact that the direction was similar may signal something more ominous.

Of course, the way markets have been consistently, over time, moving to higher ground, going short here would seem to be a rather risky proposition.

Dow Jones Industrial Average August Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
8/1/18	25,333.82	-81.37	-81.37
8/2/18	25,326.16	-7.66	-89.03
8/3/18	25,462.58	+136.42	+55.05
8/6/18	25,502.18	+39.60	+94.65
8/7/18	25,628.91	+126.73	+221.38
8/8/18	25,583.75	-45.16	+176.22
8/9/18	25,509.23	-74.52	+101.70
8/10/18	25,313.14	-196.09	-94.39
8/13/18	25,187.70	-125.44	-219.83
8/14/18	25,299.92	+112.22	-107.61
8/15/18	25,162.41	-137.51	-245.12
8/16/18	25,558.73	+396.32	+151.20
8/17/18	25,669.32	+110.59	+261.79
8/20/18	25,758.69	+89.37	+351.16
8/21/18	25,822.29	+63.60	+414.76
8/22/18	25,733.60	-88.69	+326.07
8/22/18	25,656.98	-76.62	+249.45

At the Close, Thursday, August 23, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25,656.98, -76.62 (-0.30%)
NASDAQ: 7,878.46, -10.64 (-0.13%)
S&P 500: 2,856.98, -4.84 (-0.17%)
NYSE Composite: 12,933.46, -57.05 (-0.44%)

Of The Long Bull Run And The Short Bear

Today, the S&P 500 set a new mark as the longest bull run in stock market history, surpassing the bull market record that ran from October 1990 to March 2000.

On Wednesday, the bull market that began on April 8, 2009, reached 3,453 days. The nearly 9 1/2 year run without a decline of 20% has seen the S&P rise from its low of 815.55 on April 7, 2009, to yesterday's closing high of 2,862.96, a gain of 2047.41, an average annual return of 26.4%. It's been quite a decade for Wall Street after the financial crisis had put the world on edge.

Unlike anything seen before, excepting possibly the expansion during the 1990s dotcom boom, investors have been showered with profits from virtually all sectors. There is no denying that the bull market of the 20-teens will go down in economic history as one of the more bizarre experiences ever, fueled by unlimited free-spending by central banks in global coordination, slashing interest rates at times, in some countries, to negative yields.

Adding to the hyper activity in the markets were stock buybacks by nearly every major corporation, financed by ultra-low interest rates. Buybacks reduced the number of shares outstanding, thus boosting earnings-per-share calculations beyond normal ranges.

While many still argue that this bull market was mostly smoke and mirrors, enhanced by the Federal Reserve and of benefit to only the richest one percent of the population, anybody who invested during this period made money. That's an undeniable fact that serves to silence even the grizzliest of bears.

Shortest Bear Market?

Adherents to Dow Theory (Money Daily being of that disposition) saw the end of the bull market earlier this year, when the Dow dropped precipitously from its January 26 all-time high close of 26,616.71 to 23,533.20 on March 23. The primary trend change (bull to bear) was confirmed when the Transportation Index closed on 10,119.36 on April 9. Since then, the Dow has come back, though it has not surpassed its previous high, which would signal another primary trend change from bear to bull. However, yesterday, August 21, the Transports set a new record closing high, finishing the session at 11,436.36 and well beyond its previous record close of 11,373.38, reached on January 12, 2018.

While the Transports have been leading (without much notice) the charge to new highs, it will take another spurt higher of nearly 900 by the Dow Industrials to surpass its own all-time high. If that scenario develops, the Dow will confirm the trend change that the Transportation Index has suggested. According to Dow Theory, the two have to react in tandem, confirming the primary trend direction.

The Dow demands close scrutiny in the weeks and possibly months ahead, because, despite the larger universe of pundits and analysts celebrating the longest bull run ever, until the Dow Jones Industrial Average closes above 26,616.71, theoretically, this is still a bear market and the recent activity since late March of this year has been nothing but speculation and noise.

For all the hoopla over the bull market record, today's action was noticeably subdued. Of the four major indices, only the NASDAQ returned a winner, as investors waded back into the tech-soaked speculative morass.

Dow Jones Industrial Average August Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
8/1/18	25,333.82	-81.37	-81.37
8/2/18	25,326.16	-7.66	-89.03
8/3/18	25,462.58	+136.42	+55.05
8/6/18	25,502.18	+39.60	+94.65
8/7/18	25,628.91	+126.73	+221.38
8/8/18	25,583.75	-45.16	+176.22
8/9/18	25,509.23	-74.52	+101.70
8/10/18	25,313.14	-196.09	-94.39
8/13/18	25,187.70	-125.44	-219.83
8/14/18	25,299.92	+112.22	-107.61
8/15/18	25,162.41	-137.51	-245.12
8/16/18	25,558.73	+396.32	+151.20
8/17/18	25,669.32	+110.59	+261.79
8/20/18	25,758.69	+89.37	+351.16
8/21/18	25,822.29	+63.60	+414.76
8/22/18	25,733.60	-88.69	+326.07

At the Close, Wednesday, August 22, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25,733.60, -88.69 (-0.34%)
NASDAQ: 7,889.10, +29.92 (+0.38%)
S&P 500: 2,861.82, -1.14 (-0.04%)
NYSE Composite: 12,992.05, -4.71 (-0.04%)

Stocks Continue Rally, S&P 500 Reaches New All-Time High

There was cause for celebration on Wall Street and around America on Tuesday as the S&P 500 reached a new all-time record close, gaining 5.91 to finish the day at 2,862.96, four-and-a-half points beyond the previous high set just two weeks ago, on August 7th.

While the S&P and NASDAQ have surged to new records after the February correction, the Dow is still 800 points shy of its all-time mark, though, with the economy booming, there's little to no apprehension among investors. The widespread belief is that the Dow will push forward, despite the warnings from Dow Theorists who insist a bear market on the Dow Jones Industrial Average had commenced earlier in the year. Clearly, recent data disputes the veracity of any argument made by the venerable Dow Theory.

On Wednesday, stock pickers will be in a celebratory mood once again, marking the longest bull run in US market history, surpassing the dotcom run from 1990 to 2000. According to this LA Times story there is some disagreement, but there are few who argue that this bull run has been outstanding, starting on April 9, 2009, without as much as a 15% decline throughout the duration of the run.

Tomorrow it is, then. Another record.

Dow Jones Industrial Average August Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
8/1/18	25,333.82	-81.37	-81.37
8/2/18	25,326.16	-7.66	-89.03
8/3/18	25,462.58	+136.42	+55.05
8/6/18	25,502.18	+39.60	+94.65
8/7/18	25,628.91	+126.73	+221.38
8/8/18	25,583.75	-45.16	+176.22
8/9/18	25,509.23	-74.52	+101.70
8/10/18	25,313.14	-196.09	-94.39
8/13/18	25,187.70	-125.44	-219.83
8/14/18	25,299.92	+112.22	-107.61
8/15/18	25,162.41	-137.51	-245.12
8/16/18	25,558.73	+396.32	+151.20
8/17/18	25,669.32	+110.59	+261.79
8/20/18	25,758.69	+89.37	+351.16
8/21/18	25,822.29	+63.60	+414.76

At the Close, Tuesday, August 21, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25,822.29, +63.60 (+0.25%)
NASDAQ: 7,859.17, +38.17 (+0.49%)
S&P 500: 2,862.96, +5.91 (+0.21%)
NYSE Composite: 12,996.76, +31.66 (+0.24%)

Dow Reaches Higher, S&P Closing In On Record As Bull Market Extends

Same song, different day.

The Dow led the major indices higher on Monday, while the NASDAQ languished near the unchanged mark most of the session, finishing with a small gain. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 improved to within a point of its all-time closing high. The previous record was 2,858.45 on August 7.

Despite the ongoing, beneath-the-surface currency crisis in Turkey and a full-blow economic collapse in Venezuela, the high rollers on Wall Street seem to have little sympathy as the Dow now stands at its high-water mark since February 25th.

According to most metrics, the US economy is cruising right along, with low unemployment and only slight hints of inflation. America's prosperity may be coming at the expense of the emerging nations of the world, though that's not a concern for those seeking gains in equity markets.

The Dow Industrials are less than 1000 points from the January 26 all-time high of 26,616.71 and the general markets are one day from becoming the longest bull market in US history.

Dow Jones Industrial Average August Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
8/1/18	25,333.82	-81.37	-81.37
8/2/18	25,326.16	-7.66	-89.03
8/3/18	25,462.58	+136.42	+55.05
8/6/18	25,502.18	+39.60	+94.65
8/7/18	25,628.91	+126.73	+221.38
8/8/18	25,583.75	-45.16	+176.22
8/9/18	25,509.23	-74.52	+101.70
8/10/18	25,313.14	-196.09	-94.39
8/13/18	25,187.70	-125.44	-219.83
8/14/18	25,299.92	+112.22	-107.61
8/15/18	25,162.41	-137.51	-245.12
8/16/18	25,558.73	+396.32	+151.20
8/17/18	25,669.32	+110.59	+261.79
8/20/18	25,758.69	+89.37	+351.16

At the Close, Monday, August 20, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25,758.69, +89.37 (+0.35%)
NASDAQ: 7,821.01, +4.68 (+0.06%)
S&P 500: 2,857.05, +6.92 (+0.24%)
NYSE Composite: 12,965.10, +56.83 (+0.44%)

Change of Sentiment; Something Bad In Tech-land

As of a week ago, the leading index was the NASDAQ, up more than 11 percent on the year, as opposed to the Dow Industrials, which had been lagging. Prior to this week, the Dow was up less than four percent and it was down for the year much of the time between February and early July.

Something snapped in the minds of investors this week. Maybe it was the high valuations on some of the more speculative stocks sporting the NASDAQ. Perhaps, in the search for yield, investors sought the safety of dividend producers on the Dow. Whatever the case, the Dow, this past week, was up 1.41%, while the NASDAQ shed 0.29%. It was a radical shift that appeared, magically, Wednesday morning, when the Dow was trading below 24,000.

In a matter of less than three trading session, the Dow tacked on a whopping 687 points, much of it at the open on Thursday, when the Dow popped higher and stayed well into the green the rest of the day.

Skeptics of the market will point to the radical rise on Wednesday and Thursday as proof of manipulation, or even - everybody's favorite word this season - collusion, by central banks and their ancillary brokers, to boost the share prices of the staid and steady heavy industrials. Such speculation cannot be bought off easily in this environment. It's apparent to just about everybody that the Federal Reserve and their counterparts in Japan, China, and the European Union will not stomach a severe downturn, at least not at this time. The bull market is just a few trading days from becoming the longest in American history, something the head honchos at the Fed wish to pin on their beanies before they ride triumphantly into some economic sunset.

The shifting sentiment was stunning, however. As the Dow soared, the NASDAQ soured. Many of the grand tech bonanza stocks like Netflix (NFLX) and Telsa (TSLA) were down hard for the week. Netflix dropped nearly 10%, from 345 per share to 316 at the close of business Friday. From its peak just a month ago (July 11), Netflix is down more than 100 points.

Tesla is another story altogether. The darling little electric engine that could is rapidly approaching bear territory, down to 305 at the close Friday from 379 on August 7, a span of just nine trading sessions.

Facebook, everybody's favorite ranting and raving lunatic asylum, is already in bear territory, dropping from a high of 217.50 on July 25, to a close of 173.80 Friday afternoon. That's precisely a 20.1% decline. Be sure to post to your friends, family, and anybody who gives a hoot, rat's behind, or beaver dam.

None dare call is collusion, so maybe collision is the correct word for what happened on Wall Street this week. It was nothing short of a collision of rational thinking and emotional yield-chasing.

Next week may be more or less intriguing, but after Labor Day, this market is going to become very interesting indeed.

Dow Jones Industrial Average August Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
8/1/18	25,333.82	-81.37	-81.37
8/2/18	25,326.16	-7.66	-89.03
8/3/18	25,462.58	+136.42	+55.05
8/6/18	25,502.18	+39.60	+94.65
8/7/18	25,628.91	+126.73	+221.38
8/8/18	25,583.75	-45.16	+176.22
8/9/18	25,509.23	-74.52	+101.70
8/10/18	25,313.14	-196.09	-94.39
8/13/18	25,187.70	-125.44	-219.83
8/14/18	25,299.92	+112.22	-107.61
8/15/18	25,162.41	-137.51	-245.12
8/16/18	25,558.73	+396.32	+151.20
8/17/18	25,669.32	+110.59	+261.79

At the Close, Friday, August 17, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25,669.32, +110.59 (+0.43%)
NASDAQ: 7,816.33, +9.81 (+0.13%)
S&P 500: 2,850.13, +9.44 (+0.33%)
NYSE Composite: 12,908.26, +66.98 (+0.52%)

For the Week:
Dow: +356.18 (+1.41%)
NASDAQ: -22.78 (-0.29%)
S&P 500: +16.85 (+0.59%)
NYSE Composite: +64.77 (+0.50%)