WEEKEND WRAP: Fed Delivers, S&P, NASDAQ Make All-Time Highs

With the FOMC decision Wednesday to reduced the federal funds overnight lending rate another 25 basis points, to a range of 1.50-1.75%, stocks took a the rest of decision day and Thursday to digest the news, then ramped stocks on Friday, sending the NASDAQ and S&P 500 to record closings and the Dow Jones Industrials and NYSE Composite near all-time highs.

While the third consecutive rate cut was able to reawaken some of Wall Street's animal spirits, it may be the last one for a while. Changing the wording in some parts of their statement, the Fed took on a more hawkish stance concerning rates going forward. Fed policy will remain data dependent, but not necessarily active. That didn't bother stock traders, who saw the opportunity to ignite what may extend into a holiday rally, and ran with it.

Wall Street's enthusiasm came a day after the US House of Representatives voted along strict party lines to make their impeachment inquiry against President Trump just a little more public than it has been up to this point, wherein Democrats, led by Chairman of the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, Adam Schiff, held secret, closed door depositions and heard hearsay testimony from various witnesses in connection with a phone call the president made to Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky back in July.

The charges the Democrats have alleged against Mr. Trump may be scurrilous at worst and inconsequential at best, but that hasn't prevented the Democrats to continue to spread stories to their friends in the corrupt mainstream media to smear the president in the run-up to the 2020 election. Not a single Republican voted in favor of the resolution which formally enshrined the inquiry and expanded it to other committees.

Washington being thus rendered impotent as it wastes the taxpayer dime on ridiculous accusations and pointless investigations - along the same lines as the 2+ years of the infamous Mueller probe - it does give Wall Street some relief, understanding that the government will be introducing no new laws or regulations that might impede the current, long-standing bull run.

Elsewhere, outside the United States, the world is burning, either through popular strife in countries and places as diverse as Chile, Hong Kong, and Spain (Catalonia), or by economic policy, especially the brunt instrumentality of negative interest rates, in many European countries.

China's economic slowdown became an issue this week as well, demonstrating that the Chinese hard-line stance on trade negotiations with the United States is a charade. The Chinese government knows full well that it needs cooperation with its main trading partner, but insists on slow-walking any formal agreement. President Trump is well aware of China's condition and has maintained his equally-tough positions through whatever negotiations have been made or planned. China is eventually going to lose its grip and be forced to come to terms with the United States or risk popular uprisings of its own people.

Ignoring the background noise of geopolitics, companies continued to roll out third quarter earnings reports which were modest, but nowhere near disastrous. Additionally, US GDP came in at a stronger-than-expected 1.9% in the first estimate, and October job growth was muted, but well beyond expectations, delivering a non-farm payroll report that saw job gains of 128,000, following an upwardly revised 180,000 increase in September, easily beating market expectations of 89,000. Even though the BLS report is a damaged documentary on true economic growth, the trading community saw this as a positive one and responded accordingly.

Bonds rallied. The yield curve, having un-inverted in early August, continued to steepen, with the 10-year note at 1.69% on Thursday before closing out the week at 1.73%. The longer-duration, 30-year bond, which had fallen under two percent in July, and was being sold off until this week, rallied sharply, with yields falling from 2.34% on Monday to 2.17% on Thursday, settling on Friday at 2.21%.

Gold and silver were also bid, gold regaining the $1500 per ounce level and silver shooting beyond $18 per ounce.

The week ahead features more madness from Washington, a slew of earnings reports, including some popular names like Shake Shack, Uber, UnderArmor, Sprint, Hertz, Groupon, Mariott (Monday), Chesapeake Energy and Newmont Mining (Tuesday), Roku, CVS Health, Square, Humana, Qualcom (Wednesday), Teva, Planet Fitness, AMC Entertainment, Cardinal Health, Stamps.com (Thursday), and Duke Energy and US Concrete (Friday). The Walt Disney Company (DIS), a Dow component, reports Thursday.

Barring any unforeseen negative developments like bank runs (China), riots and street killings (Hong Kong), or desultory commentary on negative interest rates (Denmark), all appears to be smooth sailing through Black Friday, which approaches rapidly, just 19 trading days hence.

Happy Holidays? Too soon?

At the Close, Friday, November 1, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 27,347.36, +301.13 (+1.11%)
NASDAQ: 8,386.40, +94.04 (+1.13%)
S&P 500: 3,066.91, +29.35 (+0.97%)
NYSE Composite: 13,300.27, +128.46 (+0.98%)

For the Week:
Dow: +389.30 (+1.44%)
NASDAQ: +143.28 (+1.74%)
S&P 500: +29.35 (+0.97%)
NYSE Composite: +154.03 (+1.17%)

The following is dedicated to California Rep. Adam Schiff:

Fed's FOMC Delivers Rate Cut; Markets Respond Positively

Following the Fed's FOMC announcement of another 25 basis point cut to he federal funds rate - the thrid in the last four months - stocks took off for new heights, with the S&P posting another new all-time high, just two days after breaking through to a record close.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the session 212 points off its all-time high, the NASDAQ just 36 points shy of a record, and the NYSE Composite closed less than 400 points from its January 2018 record.

With three-quarters of a point shaved off the key target interest rate for Fed watchers, the overnight lending rate stands in a range of 1.5% to 1.75% and the Fed's language suggests that it will not cut rates automatically at its next meeting (December) or any future meeting.

What the somewhat hawkish stance means for markets is that the flow of money is going to be stanched at some point, and that point may have already occurred, though adroit rate watchers expect further pressures on the economy that would force the Fed's hand in the first and second quarter of next year.

There are already signs that the economy is slipping, though the first estimate of third quarter GDP came in above expectations (1.6%) at 1.9% for the recently closed-out time frame, so it's not apparent that the US economy will be facing recession any time soon.

All of this makes for an interest final two months of the year for investors. Will we see a repeat of last year's December dive or are there enough animal spirits to keep the stock market churning higher?

Only time will tell.

At the Close, Wednesday, October 30, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 27,186.69, +115.29 (+0.43%)
NASDAQ: 8,303.98, +27.13 (+0.33%)
S&P 500: 3,046.77, +9.88 (+0.33%)
NYSE Composite: 13,244.01, +34.41 (+0.26%)

Stocks Slip Amid Mixed Earnings, Awaiting FOMC Interest Rate Decision

Stocks took a breather the day after the S&P 500 set a new all-time closing high, slumping slightly on various earnings results that were a mixed bag.

Google parent, Alphabet (GOOG), started the dour mood after the close on Monday by missing EPS estimates by a wide margin. General Motors (GM) was another big name that fell short, reporting $1.20 per share against analyst estimates for $1.31. There were plenty of smaller firms reporting solid or neutral results for the third quarter, but the large caps dominated the news flow.

Drops on the main indices were contained, not unusual following a healthy upsurge. Waiting upon the Federal Reserve's FOMC policy decision announcement Wednesday afternoon (2.00 pm ET), trading was muted but not depressing.

When the market opens Wednesday, earnings reports will already have been released for some other big names, including Yum! Brands (YUM), General Electric (GE), and Sotheby's (BID).

Apple (AAPL), Starbucks (SBUX), and Facebook (FB) report after the close.

In between earnings releases and calls, the Fed will provide most of the excitement on Wednesday.

At the Close, Tuesday, October 29, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 27,071.42, -19.30 (-0.07%)
NASDAQ: 8,276.85, -49.13 (-0.59%)
S&P 500: 3,036.89, -2.53 (-0.08%)
NYSE Composite: 13,209.63, +23.20 (+0.18%)

S&P Sets Record All-Time High; Fake Trump Tweet; FOMC Meeting to Begin

With an FOMC meeting in the dock for Tuesday, investors took the opportunity to ramp stocks higher prior to the expected 25 basis point cut to the federal funds rate. Just prior to the opening bell, an apparently fake news story about a presidential tweet appeared on ZeroHedge.com, saying President Trump tweeted, "today will be a good day in the stock market," and, "the China deal is moving forward ahead of schedule."

We checked the president's twitter feed and could not find any such tweet. We also checked Bloomberg, which featured an article on President Trump's tweets that related to the stock market. No such tweet was shown in the article.

This clearly looks like a somebody spoofed the grammatically-challenged Zero Hedge website. It was most likely one of their "reliable" email contacts trying to look good. It's a shame that "the Hedge" has slumped to such low levels of journalism - if that's what you want to call it - because it is normally a pretty good source for economic news not found elsewhere.

Recently, Zero Hedge has taken to posting political and other non-economic articles, to its detriment. Many of the commentators who frequented Zero Hedge in its heyday (2008-2009), prior to it being purchased by ABC Media (British Columbia, not the US media giant). According to the one-liner in the website's footer - Copyright ©2009-2019 ZeroHedge.com/ABC Media, LTD - the company took it out of the original owner's hands in 2009, as the GFC was winding down.

For the S&P 500, Monday was a special occasion, setting a new all-time record high closing. Trump may not have pumped it with a tweet, but his "America First" policies have certainly contributed to the rise of all US indices.

If stocks were overvalued prior to Monday, they are even more overvalued now, and will likely be uber-overvalued after the FOMC announces another rate cut on Wednesday.

In the meantime, earnings season is in full swing. The big story was Google parent, Alphabet, third quarter earnings, reported after the close. Alphabet posted a per-share profit of $10.12 in the quarter, decidedly below the $13.06 a share from the same period last year. Analysts polled by Bloomberg were expecting a per-share profit of $12.35.

The sizable miss was due largely to losses in investments. Among investments that may have contributed to the loss, Alphabet was involved with Uber and Slack, two companies that recently IPO'd and have lost value.

Little of this will affect Tuesday's trade outside of Alphabet (GOOG). There's far too much enthusiasm for equities and anticipation of looser monetary policy from the Fed already backed into the mix.

At the Close, Monday, October 28, 2009:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 27,090.72, +132.66 (+0.49%)
NASDAQ: 8,325.99, +82.87 (+1.01%)
S&P 500: 3,039.42, +16.87 (+0.56%)
NYSE Composite: 13,186.43, +40.19 (+0.31%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Green Lights for Stocks; Flight From High Tax States Varies US Landscape

For equity investors, the week was all about Friday.

After flailing about the prior four sessions, US indices got a sizable boost on the final day of the week, sending traders home satisfied with a positive result for the week.

With the Dow, NASDAQ, and Composite mere percentage points short of all-time highs, the S&P 500 is within three points of its record closing high, recorded earlier this year, on July 26 (3,025.86).

So, with all the uncertainty surrounding geo-political events - impeachment, Brexit, trade war - stocks continue to perform magic as solid investments in a ZIRP and NIRP environment.

With the Fed committed to "not QE" through the second quarter of 2020 (at least), stocks have in front of them a glowing green light signaling fresh all-time highs. The FOMC is expected to cut another 25 basis points at its meeting this week, the second to last of the year.

In commodity trading, WTI crude oil was bid, closing out the week at 56.63 a barrel after slumping down to $52.45 over the prior two weeks. Gold and silver, both sluggish over the past month, finally were bid on Thursday and Friday. Gold was as high as $1518 on Friday, settling in at $1504, while silver crested above $18 per ounce and closed right on that number Friday.

Ten-year treasury notes continued to be shunned, finishing out the week with a yield of 1.80%, with some correlation to ongoing cuts in the federal funds rate. Bond traders are expressing a preference for short-term maturities, with 1, 2, and 3-month bills nearly at the same yield as the 10-year. While the yield curve has returned from inverted to a rather dull slope, there's certainly no consensus on direction. With the 10-year yield at its best level since August, it is still well below the average 2.72% which prevailed in the first quarter.

Earnings reports have been unreassuring, with as many misses as those topping estimates. Overall, mega-corps are still making money, just not so much to boost their prices significantly. In this environment, banging out 5-8% year-over-year gains has to be considered pretty solid, being that the current economic cycle is well past the mid-point and may be nearing an end.

Recession talk has subsided for now, though different regions throughout the vast US landscape offer varied results. In general, flight from high-tax states - New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Maryland, Connecticut, Illinois, and California, in particular - to Southern enclaves continues apace. Retirees are taking their money and running for the state line, seeking reduced property, income, and estate taxes in more conservative states.

States that have not raised their minimum wages significantly are experiencing an influx of new residents, and with that, housing, roads, and commercial spaces are being constructed at a hot pace. Meanwhile, the Northeast continues to suffer from an overabundance of taxation, regulation, and handouts to the indigent at the same time its infrastructure is crumbling and best residents are leaving.

New York is a prime example of the dangers of liberal policies causing middle and upper class flight. While undocumented (illegal) migrants (aliens) are offered free food, housing, and education, long-suffering native New Yorkers are feeling put out, footing the bill for government largesse while good jobs are scarce and property taxes are near the highest in the nation. Home values are depressed, despite low interest rates and job creation is limited by the excessive minimum wage and other requirements of employment paid for by companies.

New York leads the nation in lost manufacturing jobs in 2019, estimated to have shed 10,000 positions through the first nine months of the year. The Empire State has also suffered significant losses in the hospitality and construction industries, due to the higher minimum wage and lack of growth in commercial and residential building.

These so-called "high tax states" are going to face a cash crunch, as higher paid workers are replaced with low-skill, low pay employees. The revenue will not be enough to sustain the high costs of state agencies and pensions. A major bust has been building for years in many states who will have to face the reality that the days of big promises are over and government staff reduction and budget cuts are on the table.

The United States is a big country, and, similar to the nations of Europe, some states may be booming while others are failing.

Caveat Emptor.

At the Close, Friday, October 25, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 26,958.06; +152.53 (+0.57%)
NASDAQ: 8,243.12, +57.32 (+0.70%)
S&P 500: 3,022.55, +12.26 (+0.41%)
NYSE Composite: 13,146.24, +27.33 (+0.21%)

For the Week:
Dow: +187.86 (+0.70%)
NASDAQ: +153.58 (+1.90%)
S&P 500: +36.35 (+1.22%)
NYSE Composite: +139.60 (+1.07%)