Thursday, January 23, 2020

Stocks Slide As IMF Revises Global Growth Projections Lower... Again

In the Senate, the impeachment trial of President Trump is well underway, though some Senators are wondering how the House managers can keep up their opening statement for another 16 hours without being laughed out of the chamber.

Adam Schiff, Gerold Nadler and their associates dithered and danced around the same tired narrative that's been their staple for the past six months and nobody is really buying it. Perhaps that's why stocks slumped late in the day, due to overwhelming boredom.

Impeachment aside, stocks were off to a solid start on Wednesday, but failed to make much progress, with the Dow actually ending in the red after being up 124 points early in the session.

There are be a plethora of reasons to be selling stocks at this juncture, main among them valuation, but the continuing slowdown in global trade and potential for most of Europe to fall into a recession are probably the most "top of mind" as winter winds blow cold across the Northern Hemisphere.

Lowering its 2019 forecast (a little late) for the sixth straight time, the IMF dropped expectations for global growth to 2.9%, down 0.1 from it's previous 3.0% expectation. Most of the data is already in place. The IMF, like everyone else, is monitoring fourth quarter results from corporations around the world.

In what has to be regarded as somewhat on the cheeky side, the IMF also lowered its 2020 forecast, from 3.4% to 3.3%. It's ludicrous to believe that the amalgamated egoistic economists at the IMF can get any prediction right, especially one calling for improvement when the early evidence is clearly favoring decline. Within a few months, these brainiacs will be revising their crystal ball projections and tea leaf readings to something more aligned with reality.

Considering that the US, at least, is at the far end of an 11-year bull market, some slowdown would be expected and it's notable that the brain-dead at the IMF cannot fathom the declining birth rate effects of demographics in developed countries, most of which have fallen below replacement figures.

With cheerleaders like those at the IMF and the relentless money creation by the Fed, there's little wonder the rich get richer as fake predictions are afforded the most credence.

At some point, the Fed will stop printing or the dollar will hyper-inflate. At that point, the IMF can revise upward and still find itself woefully behind the curve.

At the Close, Wednesday, January 22, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 29,186.27, -9.77 (-0.03%)
NASDAQ: 9,383.77, +12.96 (+0.14%)
S&P 500: 3,321.75, +0.96 (+0.03%)
NYSE: 14,110.24, +0.26 (+0.00%)

Wednesday, January 22, 2020

Stocks Take Extra Day Off As Impeachment Trial Opens, Virginia Protest Ends Peacefully

Almost everybody got back to work on Tuesday, following the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, including those who traveled to Richmond, Virginia to rally in support of the second amendment and congress, which eagerly got started on the impeachment trial of President Donald J. Trump.

The scene in Richmond was inspiring, if not daunting to those who oppose gun rights in the United States and elsewhere. The display of firearms - from shotguns and .22s to ARs, semi-automatic weapons, handguns and even a .50-caliber tank-buster - was impressive to say the least. The massive demonstration of an armed populace acting in a very peaceable manner without incident (only one arrest was made) served as a reminder of what America is all about: a free people willing to defend their rights against tyranny.

In congress, it was another kind of spectacle, with the managers from the House of Representatives sparring over trial rules with the president's legal team. The arguments by the House members who stand as prosecutors fell largely on deaf Republican ears as every one of the eleven proposed amendments brought up by Democrat leader Chuck Schumer was defeated along party lines, 53-47, bar one. Maine Senator, Susan Collins voted with Democrats on the 10th amendment proposed by Schumer, which would have allowed more time for both sides to respond to trial motions, but it still went down in flames, 52-48.

The marathon session lasted well into the night, finally adjourning just before two o'clock am. The defeat of the Democrats was resounding and bodes well for the president as the parties will begin making their cases when the House managers begin three days of opening arguments on Wednesday at 1:00 pm ET.

While the rhetoric was fiery and impassioned by both sides, the issues raised by the president's lawyers seemed more authentic and serious. Most of the Senators seated in the chamber are well aware that the charges levied by the Democratically-controlled House - Abuse of Power and Obstruction of Congress - are neither crimes nor are their arguments particularly well-founded. The president and his team have roundly criticized the entire impeachment process as a "sham" and a political exercise, the charges not even close to rising as impeachable offenses.

Nevertheless, House managers will have three eight-hour sessions over the next three days in which to plead their case, taking the trial through Friday. The president's defense team will also have the same allotment of time - 24 hours - to offer their case, on Saturday, Monday, and Tuesday, also in three eight-hour sessions. It's looking like the president will be acquitted on both charges in a reasonably short manner.

While there is still the possibility of calling new witnesses and adding documents, the Republicans in the Senate are unlikely to move forward on those grounds, considering that the House should have done its job better to make its case against the president without having to conjure up new charges and ddrag the country through a drawn-out, ridiculous process that could stretch into months of useless debate.

Meanwhile, Wall Street wasn't very upbeat about anything, as stocks took a rare nosedive to open the week's trading. Led by the Dow Industrials, losses were not substantial and would likely not lead to any more selling activity. Besides the Fed's nearly-continuous pumping of fresh cash into the hands of hedge funds and primary dealers (big banks and brokerages), the global outlook is a few shades light of gloomy while the rich and not-so-famous convene at Davos, Switzerland this week for the 50th annual World Economic Forum.

Business and political leaders from around the world heard President Trump speak on the glories of his "America First" policies, followed by another round of adult-shaming by eco-warrior princess, Greta Thunberg. The two cancelled each other out to some degree, though Trump's speech was longer and much more compelling than Thunberg's seven-minute screed.

Even with stocks lower, gold and silver took substantial hits at the start of the day and failed to recover to any great degree. WTI Crude oil futures continued to test the upper resistance at $58/barrel and failing, while the 10-year note was bid, finishing below a 1.80% yield for just the second time this year.

All told, it was a good day for non-financial activity, though the trading hardly reflected that. Instead, markets are displaying the kind of activity seen when stocks are overbought, as they currently are. Short-term, there's potential for a more sizable pullback, though it would take a gargantuan effort to offset the machinations of the Fed, which now has wrested nearly complete control of almost all markets.

Until the Federal Reserve takes its foot off the liquidity gas pedal, stocks should continue to outpace all other investments.

At the Close, Tuesday, January 21, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 29,196.04, -152.06 (-0.52%)
NASDAQ: 9,370.81, -18.14 (-0.19%)
S&P 500: 3,320.79, -8.83 (-0.27%)
NYSE: 14,109.98, -73.22 (-0.52%)

Monday, January 20, 2020

WEEKEND WRAP: Virginia Lobby Day and Trump Impeachment Trial Take Center Stage

It being Martin Luther King Jr. Day, markets in the US are closed, but that didn't stop what looks to be more than 50,000 (actual number was about 22,000) patriots from heading down to Richmond, Virginia for the state's annual "Lobby Day," usually an opportunity for Virginia citizens to meet with their legislators and discuss various agendas facing the state.

This year, most people won't even get a chance to see a legislator, as Governor Ralph Shearer Northam (he of blackface shame) last week declared a state of emergency for the state capitol from January 17 to January 21, over fears of violence stemming from the gun rights crowds expected.

Northam was wrong to declare the emergency. After all, beyond the extra police presence, there are so many well-armed citizens in attendance, anybody thinking of causing trouble would probably think twice.

It's still early, and very chilly, in Richmond right now, but so far, the crowds have been peaceful. The day should end without incident unless something gets stirred up by anti-gun reactionaries like Antifa or a false flag event staged by one of the three-letter agencies overseeing the ongoings.

With many live streams being broadcast and thousands of people with cell phones, it's unlikely anything underhanded should happen, and if something does happen, it's likely to be recorded. This isn't going to be a rerun of the melee at Charlottesville back in 2017.

If Virginia's Lobby Day doesn't produce any grotesque footage for the fake media, then Tuesday, all eyes will turn to the impeachment trial which opens in the Senate. This is another made-for-TV type event, but Republicans led by Mitch McConnell (R-KY) are doing their level best to blunt the desired effect the Democrats are seeking, which is to drag out a long trial, complete with new witnesses, demands for documents, calls of a cover-up, issues of executive privilege ruled upon by the Supreme Court and other such nonsense.

The impeachment of President Trump was a sham from the start, when Intelligence Committee chairman Adam Schiff launched a plot and counseled a "whistleblower" over a single phone call made by Trump to Ukraine president Zelensky.

Drawing from shades of the Bill Clinton impeachment, there never was, nor never will be any "there" there.

If cooler heads (Republicans) prevail, this sorry escape into stupidity should be all over in less than two weeks. Many Americans wish it could end in two days, if not sooner.

With all the tumultuous political theater taking place it's a wonder that stocks move at all, especially in an upward direction, though the recent buying spree - which began in September 2019 - has been aptly aided by continuous money printing and liquidity being shoved into the REPO market by the Federal Reserve. Until the Fed ceases its now-daily operations, stocks will never suffer losses. It's just a matter of fact. Like Warren Buffett supposedly quipped, "Give me a trillion dollars and I'll show you a good time, too."

Meanwhile, inflation will be ramping up sooner, as per the wishes of the Fed, whose various voices and charts keep telling the American public that the US economy hasn't yet met their target of two percent inflation, as if higher inflation were a good thing (it's not). All along, however, inflation has been raging in health care, education, and housing, but those factors are not apparently part of the Fed's purview. Therefore, they continue to print at a rate faster than previous bouts of QE while Chairman Jerome Powell insists this round of liquidity pumping is "not QE."

Sure, we'll buy that. And that horse over there is actually a rabbit.

Just how hard has the liquidity pump been working?

Since mid-October, on a weekly basis, the Dow has been up 10 weeks, down three; the NASDAQ, since late September, 14 weekly gains, two weeks with losses; S&P: 13 up, two down; NYSE: 13 up, two down.

That's a nice-looking rabbit ya got there. Mind if I ride him?

At the Close, Friday, January 17, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 29,348.10, +50.50 (+0.17%)
NASDAQ: 9,388.94, +31.81 (+0.34%)
S&P 500: 3,329.62, +12.81 (+0.39%)
NYSE: 14,183.20, +41.40 (+0.29%)

For the Week:
Dow: +524.33 (+1.82%)
NASDAQ: +210.08 (+2.29%)
S&P 500: +64.27 (+1.97%)
NYSE: +225.23 (+1.61%)

Friday, January 17, 2020

Confluence Of Impeachment, Virginia State Of Emergency, Peter Schweizer Book Could Damage Stocks

With stocks soaring to even higher new record highs again on Thursday, there's little doubt over the levles of irrationality and exuberance being displayed by the hoi poloi investing elite, their magic money spigot at the Fed and their marvelous algorithms which interpret all news as positive for stocks.

It is precisely in conditions such as these (the Dow Jones Industrial Average has vaulted over 29,000 with ease and is up a stunning 3,219 points since October 3rd, a 12.3% gain in just three-and-a-half months. The time period in question coincides neatly with the Federal Reserve's stoking engagement into the repo market, pumping, by some estimates, over $1.5 trillion into the hands of primary dealers and hedge funds, ramping the Fed's own balance sheet by more than $413.7 billion since the end of August.

The Fed's particular brand of irrational exuberance is at a pace reminiscent of prior bouts of QE in 2009, 2010-11, and 2012-14, even though the Fed cutely insists this is "not QE." Balderdash.

Normally, nobody gets alarmed over gigantic gains in stocks, giving their overall pleasant scent (go ahead, you know you want to sniff your currency) and beneficial purchasing power, but this severe repricing of stocks is beginning to look Weimar-like, when stocks in 1920s Weimar Germany rose by obscene percentages, but cashing in hundreds of shares could only purchase a day's worth of food due to the overarching hyperinflation of the currency.

Not to say that the same is or will be happening in the United States, though signs of runaway inflation are prevalent, but something may go wrong at some point that tears the social construct and eventually affects stocks and currency.

Consider that a confluence of events are about to take place between now and Tuesday, January 21. Equity and security markets will be closed over the weekend and on Monday, Martin Luther King Day, a national holiday. In the meantime, there's already a state of emergency declared in Richmond, Virginia with concern over the gun rights rally set up for Lobby Day on Monday.

On Tuesday, the impeachment trial of President Trump begins in the Senate.

Also on Tuesday, Peter Schweizer's new book, Profiles in Corruption drops. On the book's cover are the faces of Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and others. Uh, Oh, it's already at #3 on Amazon's Best Sellers list.

Tuesday may be too late to get out of positions, so if there's some quiet pullback on Friday, it could be a tell.

At the Close, Thursday, January 16, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 29,297.64, +267.44 (+0.92%)
NASDAQ: 9,357.13, +98.43 (+1.06%)
S&P 500: 3,316.81, +27.52 (+0.84%)
NYSE Composite: 14,141.78, +88.58 (+0.63%)

Thursday, January 16, 2020

SNAFU Market Thrives On Chaos As China Deal Signed, Trump Impeached (again)

Since it's probably naive to believe that US equity markets are anything other than "fair and open," Wednesday's solid gains - record highs all around - have more to do with internal tinkering than any outside effects. Algorithms that apparently think sending articles of impeachment against President Donal J. Trump from the House of Representatives over to the Senate (after a month-long delay) is not as important an event as the signing of Phase 1 of the US-Chaina trade accord, both of which occurred almost simultaneously.

One can wonder exactly what traders are thinking these early days of 2020, but the algos may be on the right track given that the impeachment drama has been and ought to have been discounted as bad theatre, whereas the trade deal might turn out to be a big deal for global commerce.

No matter the details, stocks continue to soar, practically every day notching new record highs, without as much as a superfluous pullback every few weeks or so. The driver of this irrationals madness has recently been the Fed's easy money via daily repo injections, with the Federal Reserve providing ready cash in exchange for treasury bills, notes, and bonds they sold to primary dealers just days prior.

It's an open secret that the Fed's balance sheet is growing by monstrous proportions again, having begun in September and continued to burgeon through the holidays and into the new year. The Fed has plans to cease such onerous operations sometime in April, though there's ample consideration that such a move might prompt a dipsy-doo on the order of the ones that accompanied rate tightening in October and again in December of 2018.

For now, the bloom is on the rose and for all intents manages to stay blushing through impeachments, royal defections, plane crashes, Middle East noise, and all other hyperbolic geopolitical events. If nothing is done to stop the SNAFU (Situation Normal, All F--ked Up) 2020 could end up being a lot like 2019, replete with outsized gains for everybody, despite chaos all around.

At the Close, Wednesday. January 15, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 29,030.22, +90.55 (+0.31%)
NASDAQ: 9,258.70, +7.37 (+0.08%)
S&P 500: 3,289.29, +6.14 (+0.19%)
NYSE Composite: 14,053.23, +16.10 (+0.11)