(Simultaneously published at Downtown Magazine)
OK, this was a long week, and stocks got clobbered again, but it could have been, and should have been, worse. The main indices were down between two percent (S&P 500) and three percent (NYSE Composite). For most citizens of the world who are under forced quarantine, the week was a painful experience. The vast majority of people would just like to be back at work, earning a living to support their families. The partially-manufactured COVID-19 crisis is keeping most of the developed nations' economies and people in lockdowns, on purpose, to impose government will over everyday people.
It's a shame how many will be cowed by government and led to believe the many lies that have been perpetrated during this period.
The beginning effects of the Fed backstopping companies has already been noticed. Some dime-store variety stocks were being bid up as the rest of the market was heading lower through the week. Companies (no names, for now, until more than a few weeks data is collected) evidenced buying at stop loss triggers. Not many were allowed to fall to anywhere near the recent lows.
Stocks should get another taste of selling in the coming week, as most of the news will be about overloaded hospitals, stressed out medial workers, press conferences by the president and his "team." It will be interesting to note how hard the Fed works to stave off a return to 18,212 on the Dow and similar drops on the other indices. They will likely keep losses to a minimum. It would not surprise at all would stocks stage another rally.
The treasury yield curve is about as flat as it can be, signaling nothing good. 115 basis points, or, just more than one percent, covers the entire complex from one-month bills (0.09% yield) to 30-year bonds (1.24%). The 10-year note is flatlining at 0.62%. The Fed, via its SPVs (Special Purpose Vehicles) is desperately buying commercial paper, in addition to treasury bonds, agency mortgage-backed securities, ETF paper, and municipal bonds. They're busy buying up the world's debt with the only currency that matters, the US dollar, conjured up daily out of thin air. The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has ballooned to nearly $6 trillion in their attempt to blow the global credit bubble a lot larger.
Oil caught a huge bid after President Trump supposedly brokered a deal between the Saudis and the Russians, making a record gain on Thursday and another huge leap forward in price on Friday. While there is rampant skepticism over whether there is any kind of deal afoot (the Saudis denied it), the recent price jump - WTI crude went from $21.76 per barrel on Wednesday to a high of $26.35 Thursday, and closed out Friday at $28.34; Brent went from $26.90 to $34.11 over the same span - is unlikely to be long-lasting. Until the Saudis and Russians have eliminated 50-60% of the shale drillers in the US, there aren't going to be any concessions. Additionally, the rampant supply glut and limited demand should keep the price around $20-24 per barrel.
Gold and silver continue to decouple from the fraudulent futures prices. Gold settled out just below $1600 the ounce, silver about $14.00. For real prices on physical silver and gold, one must go to eBay of all places, where there is a wide-open market for coins, bars and assorted bullion. An ounce of gold is ranging between $1800-$2000, while silver cannot be had for under $22 per ounce. These are the real prices, and are heading up quickly because demand is through the roof, many miners are idled, reducing supply, hoarding is rampant, and delivery times from established dealers (30-45 days in some cases) cannot match the one-to-three day deliveries by independent eBay sellers, and those prices have built into them a 10% commission to eBay and do not include shipping, which only adds to the real prices.
There's a definite possibility that the COMEX and LBMA will soon be disregarded completely and a free, open, un-manipulated market will emerge at the world's biggest online bazaar and elsewhere on the internet as fiat currencies are inflated away and real money begins to take root at the consumer level.
Random Notes and Recommendations
JP Morgan put out a study which concluded that the world will be on the downside of the case infection rate curve in two months. Rubbish. Check out this site for the US:
http://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
The United States will be peaking and on the downslope of the curve within 2-3 WEEKS, not 2 months, and European nations are already on the downslope.
All the noise over ventilators, on which two-thirds of the people die anyhow, is just wasted time and money. The small business "loans" are garbage, full of loopholes and boondoggles for small business.
As usual, Wall Street got their trillions in the blink of an eye. American citizens will have to wait until the government gets around to figuring out how to pay them their $1200. Average time, from right now, 3-6 weeks.
Gee, thanks for helping us all out.
Open up MLB. It would be nice to see the some home runs, swings and misses, stolen bases, sign-stealing, and all that good stuff by May 15 at the latest. Even a shortened season would be acceptable. Americans, average Americans are the ones who deserve all the credit. They took social distancing and stay-at-home seriously, which was very helpful in slowing the spread of COVID. We should all get $10K, and Wall Street nothing, because those companies contributed nothing, and most of the companies getting bailout money do nothing. The people should revolt once this is over.
The government, local, state, and federal are the destroyers of liberty. All of them are worthless parasites and when this is all over they'll all pat themselves on the backs for doing such a bang-up job, when, in reality, it was mostly a big hoax.
Here is an exceptional interactive chart which shows the curve (the one we're actively flattening by social distancing and other mediations) in the United States and in every state individually, with figures for numbers of beds, ICU beds, and ventilators needed and available.
It clearly shows the curve peaking between April 15 and 21. The response curve will peak first, followed quickly by the number of COVID-19 cases curve. After that, it's all downhill for the dangerous pathogen that has disrupted lives and economies worldwide.
Brent Johnson's Dollar Milkshake Theory
Brent Johnson is CEO of Santiago Capital. He has been creating and managing comprehensive wealth management strategies for the personal portfolios of high-net-worth individuals and families since the late 1990s.
If you watch no other video on money, gold, or finance, this is the one you definitely should see.
Also, Mike Maloney's GoldSilver.com is an excellent resource. Recently, Mike has been doing pretty much daily videos with consolidated information from a wide variety of sources, funneled through his intuitive, calculating mind. Here is a recent entry with some revealing charts by the incredible analyst John Hussman, another number-crunching maniac who's been studying and disseminating information on the economy in a series of market commentaries at his Hussman Funds website.
Here is Mike Maloney's April 3rd video:
Make sure to get Mike's free e-book, Guide to Investing in Gold & Silver, the #1 All-Time Bestseller On Precious Metals Investing, available at his site.
At the Close, Friday, April 2, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 21,052.53, -360.87 (-1.69%)
NASDAQ: 7,373.08, -114.23 (-1.53%)
S&P 500: 2,488.65, -38.25 (-1.51%)
NYSE: 9,880.63, -181.77 (-1.81%)
For the Week:
Dow: -584.25 (-2.70%)
NASDAQ: -114.23 (-2.53%)
S&P 500: -52.82 (-2.08)
NYSE: -306.58 (-3.01%)
Sunday, April 5, 2020
Friday, April 3, 2020
Government Deception, Corruption and Incompetence Are Killing Developed Nations
(Simultaneously published at Downtown Magazine)
A long-standing tradition in sales and business is "underpromise and overdeliver," the point being that respect comes from making good on your commitments. Analogous to that is the time-honored adage, "don't promise what you can't deliver." This is basically Business 101. Donald Trump knows that. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin knows it as well.
One has to wonder at the stunning lack of discipline coming out of the White House and Treasury in response to the $1200 checks or direct deposits promised to "nearly all Americans" two weeks ago, now that a memo from the House of Representatives says that some people will have to wait as long as 20 weeks to receive their government stipend.
Meanwhile, Treasury and the Federal Reserve have been doling out trillions of dollars to unhealthy banks and corporations in a last-ditch effort to avert a complete economic meltdown and stock market crash. As is usually the case, Wall Street gets the money immediately, putting taxpayers on the hook, and the citizenry gets shafted.
It's disgusting, nauseating, criminal.
The Federal Reserve and Treasury Department are skirting the law in regards to handouts to major corporations in the form of bond-buying and other stimuli. The Federal Reserve is chartered to purchase bonds backed by the federal government. The have put the Treasury, using the Exchange Stabilization Fund, up as a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) in a first-loss position, to expedite the buying of commercial paper, asset-backed securities, ETF paper and the like. Blackrock will do the actual buying, even to the point of purchasing their own debt. Jim Bianco, in a Bloomberg editorial from March 27, lays out the dangerous route upon which the Fed and Treasury have embarked.
America the Beautiful is being turned into a freak show. The solutions provided at the top level of government are devoid of lawfulness, trampling on the constitution like an well-worn carpet, all over a virus, COVID-19, that can be mostly prevented with Vitamin C, D, and Zinc, and the worst effects ameliorated with chloroquine or combining hydroxychloroquine with the antibiotic azithromycin, but you won't hear that, see that, or read that on any of the mainstream media outlets, despite FDA approval of chloroquine as a treatment for COVID-19.
Markets reacted positively on Thursday to news that 6.6 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week. That's right. Stocks rallied off that news. Maybe if a few hundred thousand die from the disease stocks can surpass the all-time highs made in February.
What's happening in the United States and probably to a greater degree in Europe is the destruction of the global economy. Nothing makes any sense in all this. Why do Americans have to stop going to work, close businesses, and stay home for six weeks when the outcome of 80-90% of the people who are infected are mild and the overwhelming evidence shows that the vast majority (90-95%) of people who die from aftereffects of the coronavirus had other health issues - comorbidities?
America is being torn apart at the seams, all under the guise of protecting the people. That's what the American public is being told, the media is up to its eyeballs in it and the government is taking away rights and assuming more power than ever before. In six months time, the United States will have undergone a remarkable transition from a capitalist democratic republic to a fascist regime, where big business and government are bound at the hip.
There's no point in analysis of markets anymore. They're all broken. The New York Fed owns the stock market. Treasury yields have already turned negative for a time last week and will likely do so again. Gold and silver futures have completely decoupled from the reality of physical metal prices. Oil is stuck at $20 per barrel unless the president insists that he made deals with the Saudis and the Russians, two parties which are more than happy to put the screws to Mr. Trump and the shale oil drillers in America.
It was a nice country, America. Too bad it had to die this way, at the hands of psychopaths in government, many of whom, by the way, profited nicely before, during, and after the market turmoil. Practically every member of congress should be indicted for insider trading. They all knew this was coming, but allowed nearly unlimited travel into and out of this country for weeks while the virus was raging. They continue to not advise everybody to wear a mask, a solution too simple for their twisted minds to consider. The countries with the best results - China, South Korea, Japan - have 100% of the population wearing masks.
The world's people are being lied to on a grand scale. Get used to it.
All of this could have been avoided, but, that wasn't the plan. The plan is to inflict maximum pain on the citizens of every developed nation, and it's working.
At the Close, Thursday, April 3, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 21,413.44, +469.93 (+2.24%)
NASDAQ: 7,487.31, +126.73 (+1.72%)
S&P 500: 2,526.90, +56.40 (+2.28%)
NYSE: 10,062.37, +217.52 (+2.21%)
A long-standing tradition in sales and business is "underpromise and overdeliver," the point being that respect comes from making good on your commitments. Analogous to that is the time-honored adage, "don't promise what you can't deliver." This is basically Business 101. Donald Trump knows that. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin knows it as well.
One has to wonder at the stunning lack of discipline coming out of the White House and Treasury in response to the $1200 checks or direct deposits promised to "nearly all Americans" two weeks ago, now that a memo from the House of Representatives says that some people will have to wait as long as 20 weeks to receive their government stipend.
Meanwhile, Treasury and the Federal Reserve have been doling out trillions of dollars to unhealthy banks and corporations in a last-ditch effort to avert a complete economic meltdown and stock market crash. As is usually the case, Wall Street gets the money immediately, putting taxpayers on the hook, and the citizenry gets shafted.
It's disgusting, nauseating, criminal.
The Federal Reserve and Treasury Department are skirting the law in regards to handouts to major corporations in the form of bond-buying and other stimuli. The Federal Reserve is chartered to purchase bonds backed by the federal government. The have put the Treasury, using the Exchange Stabilization Fund, up as a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) in a first-loss position, to expedite the buying of commercial paper, asset-backed securities, ETF paper and the like. Blackrock will do the actual buying, even to the point of purchasing their own debt. Jim Bianco, in a Bloomberg editorial from March 27, lays out the dangerous route upon which the Fed and Treasury have embarked.
America the Beautiful is being turned into a freak show. The solutions provided at the top level of government are devoid of lawfulness, trampling on the constitution like an well-worn carpet, all over a virus, COVID-19, that can be mostly prevented with Vitamin C, D, and Zinc, and the worst effects ameliorated with chloroquine or combining hydroxychloroquine with the antibiotic azithromycin, but you won't hear that, see that, or read that on any of the mainstream media outlets, despite FDA approval of chloroquine as a treatment for COVID-19.
Markets reacted positively on Thursday to news that 6.6 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week. That's right. Stocks rallied off that news. Maybe if a few hundred thousand die from the disease stocks can surpass the all-time highs made in February.
What's happening in the United States and probably to a greater degree in Europe is the destruction of the global economy. Nothing makes any sense in all this. Why do Americans have to stop going to work, close businesses, and stay home for six weeks when the outcome of 80-90% of the people who are infected are mild and the overwhelming evidence shows that the vast majority (90-95%) of people who die from aftereffects of the coronavirus had other health issues - comorbidities?
America is being torn apart at the seams, all under the guise of protecting the people. That's what the American public is being told, the media is up to its eyeballs in it and the government is taking away rights and assuming more power than ever before. In six months time, the United States will have undergone a remarkable transition from a capitalist democratic republic to a fascist regime, where big business and government are bound at the hip.
There's no point in analysis of markets anymore. They're all broken. The New York Fed owns the stock market. Treasury yields have already turned negative for a time last week and will likely do so again. Gold and silver futures have completely decoupled from the reality of physical metal prices. Oil is stuck at $20 per barrel unless the president insists that he made deals with the Saudis and the Russians, two parties which are more than happy to put the screws to Mr. Trump and the shale oil drillers in America.
It was a nice country, America. Too bad it had to die this way, at the hands of psychopaths in government, many of whom, by the way, profited nicely before, during, and after the market turmoil. Practically every member of congress should be indicted for insider trading. They all knew this was coming, but allowed nearly unlimited travel into and out of this country for weeks while the virus was raging. They continue to not advise everybody to wear a mask, a solution too simple for their twisted minds to consider. The countries with the best results - China, South Korea, Japan - have 100% of the population wearing masks.
The world's people are being lied to on a grand scale. Get used to it.
All of this could have been avoided, but, that wasn't the plan. The plan is to inflict maximum pain on the citizens of every developed nation, and it's working.
At the Close, Thursday, April 3, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 21,413.44, +469.93 (+2.24%)
NASDAQ: 7,487.31, +126.73 (+1.72%)
S&P 500: 2,526.90, +56.40 (+2.28%)
NYSE: 10,062.37, +217.52 (+2.21%)
Thursday, April 2, 2020
6.64 Million Unemployment Claims; Stocks Take a Hit; Gold, Silver Selling at Premium
(Simultaneously published at Downtown Magazine)
Wednesday was April Fool's Day, appropriate for the general public, which is being actively conned into giving up civil liberties at an alarming rate, and also for those who are stuck in passive investments like college or retirement funds, as stocks got hammered again on the day.
Meanwhile, mega banks and major corporations, which gorged themselves on stock buybacks and executive bonuses over the past decade, are being rewarded for their insouciant, self-serving behavior with loans and grants from the Treasury and Federal Reserve, which are rapidly coalescing into a single entity.
Since completing a near-perfect Fibonacci retrace of 38% to the 22,500 level on the Dow (22,552.17), the blue chip index has given up more than 1,500 points over the past two sessions and are threatening to retest the lows of March 23 (18,213.65). ADP private payroll data released Wednesday showed job losses of 27,000, which did not include the end of March when most of the recent layoffs and furloughs occurred. Despite exception of the brunt of a widespread voluntary quarantine imposed by most states the number was the first time ADP reported monthly job losses since 2017. Their next data release is expected to be much more sobering.
With the Federal Reserve firmly in control of the stock and bond markets, equity prices still have a long distance to travel on a downward slope to reach any reasonable level of valuation. While most heavily-traded stocks were wildly overvalued they are still trading at unsustainable levels, especially considering that business and commerce has very nearly ground to a halt globally.
There will be questions about the level of involvement in equity markets by the Fed, especially on days like Wednesday when losses cascaded down the wall of worry. While it's certainly the case that the Fed could buy up all the ETFs, stocks and mutual funds it pleases, their main approach is in the bond market, where they are actively purchasing commercial paper through its proxy, the Treasury. Guaranteeing that the corporations represented in the NASDAQ, Dow, S&P, and NYSE are still able to finance continuing operations is of primary concern. Price levels of individual stocks or even whole indices are of a secondary nature. Massive gains will be available to the Fed and their insider (congress) associates once stocks are reduced to a massive junk heap of debt, enriched management, and damaged operations.
Currently being touted by the financial insiders is the notion that the stock market and the nation will bounce back quickly once the coronavirus is conquered, though that concept is fatally flawed for a number of reasons. First, the goal is to have zero deaths from COVID-19, a near impossibility given that the infection number has not even cracked the one percent level, with the US currently at 217,000 confirmed cases with 5,137 deaths. Second, many small businesses will not reopen when the "all clear" is given, whether that be at the end of April, or some time in July. Third, with most working-age Americans at home or out of a job, the spending level upon the return to some semblance of normalcy will be vastly reduced. GDP growth is likely to be negative for the second and third quarters and the entire year of 2020 will go down as one in which the US economy was running in reverse.
At this point, anyone who has not taken steps to remove money from the stock and bond markets is facing a world of hurt which could have been avoided. The appropriate investment stance at this juncture would likely be 75% cash and 25% in hard assets (real estate, precious metals). Sadly, the gullible American passive investment class has been conditioned to believe stocks will always bounce back and that bonds represent safety. Neither claim can be proven within the present paradigm. Stocks may bounce back, but that bounce may not occur for many years. Bonds may be safe, but at interest rates that are comparable to stuffing matresses with Federal Reserve Notes. And, it's probably not beyond the realm of probability that the almighty dollar will not survive in its current form. At the very least, as severe devaluation is in the cards.
Treasury yields were smashed lower, the curve significantly flattened on the day, with the 30-year bond at 1.27%, the 10-year note at 0.62%, and the full breadth of the curve a mere 124 basis points, down from 130 a day ago and 145 a week prior. These are serious declines, significant moves in a market that is supposed to be stable. The portent is for more dislocation, desperation, and, eventually, negative rates which will obliterate the currency as is happening in Japan and Europe.
Gold and silver are still largely unavailable from regular dealers even though prices on the futures exchanges are dropping, defying the laws of supply and demand. The best place to purchase precious metals in any form is currently ebay, where the market is brisk and one ounce gold coins can be purchased and quickly delivered for prices between $1690 and $1861 while the futures price hovers around $1590.
Silver is in an even better position for sellers, tacking on premiums of up to 100% to the posted price of $14.25 on the futures exchanges. On eBay, the lowest price for a one ounce coin or bar is currently $21.50, with most ranging from $23.00 to $29.00 and uncirculated coins fetching more, up to absurd prices in the $40 and higher range. With mines shut down in many countries, the shortage of bullion is only just beginning. A metal mania is upon us.
Oil prices have caught bids early Thursday morning, with WTI crude priced at $22.37, Brent at $27.19 at the time of this writing. With a supply glut and the Saudis pumping at nearly-full capacity and offering discounts, it's likely that these prices do not reflect reality on the ground nor are they likely to maintain their gains for long.
As another trading day approaches, regular people may be wondering when they will receive their bailout $1200 check or direct deposit from the government and how they will pay their rent or mortgage without a job or some form of assistance. It has been two weeks since Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and President Trump suggested that individuals would receive money within two weeks and nobody has seen a nickel. The bill to provide such assistance was passed last week by the Senate, House, and signed into law by President Trump.
On Wednesday, Mnuchin announced that Social Security recipients who do not regularly file tax returns will receive their checks or direct deposits without having to file "simple returns" as the IRS advised, according to TheHill.com. An actual date for dissemination of the monies was not disclosed, though it may be assumed that these recipients will receive their money along with their regular monthly payments. For the rest of the country, the waiting game continues, despite corporations already having trillions of dollars available to them via loans, loan guarantees or outright purchases of private debt issuance by the Federal Reserve, most of which is outside the Fed's normal chartered activities.
As for rent or mortgage payments, those are individual decisions. It is advisable to contact the landlord or mortgagee to work out payment options. Some landlords are deferring April rent payments while most lenders (represented in the main by servicers) have remained fairly tight-lipped on general guidelines relating to mortgage payments. Deferral is a likely solution, with the principal and interest being added to the end of the amortization schedule.
Just now, the Labor Department announced that unemployment insurance claims for the week ended March 28 doubled over the previous week to 6.64 million.
April and the second quarter is off to a very discouraging start.
At the Close, Wednesday, April 1, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 20,943.51, -973.69 (-4.44%)
NASDAQ: 7,360.58, -339.52 (-4.41%)
S&P 500: 2,470.50, -114.09 (-4.41%)
NYSE: 9,844.85, -457.05 (-4.44%)
Wednesday was April Fool's Day, appropriate for the general public, which is being actively conned into giving up civil liberties at an alarming rate, and also for those who are stuck in passive investments like college or retirement funds, as stocks got hammered again on the day.
Meanwhile, mega banks and major corporations, which gorged themselves on stock buybacks and executive bonuses over the past decade, are being rewarded for their insouciant, self-serving behavior with loans and grants from the Treasury and Federal Reserve, which are rapidly coalescing into a single entity.
Since completing a near-perfect Fibonacci retrace of 38% to the 22,500 level on the Dow (22,552.17), the blue chip index has given up more than 1,500 points over the past two sessions and are threatening to retest the lows of March 23 (18,213.65). ADP private payroll data released Wednesday showed job losses of 27,000, which did not include the end of March when most of the recent layoffs and furloughs occurred. Despite exception of the brunt of a widespread voluntary quarantine imposed by most states the number was the first time ADP reported monthly job losses since 2017. Their next data release is expected to be much more sobering.
With the Federal Reserve firmly in control of the stock and bond markets, equity prices still have a long distance to travel on a downward slope to reach any reasonable level of valuation. While most heavily-traded stocks were wildly overvalued they are still trading at unsustainable levels, especially considering that business and commerce has very nearly ground to a halt globally.
There will be questions about the level of involvement in equity markets by the Fed, especially on days like Wednesday when losses cascaded down the wall of worry. While it's certainly the case that the Fed could buy up all the ETFs, stocks and mutual funds it pleases, their main approach is in the bond market, where they are actively purchasing commercial paper through its proxy, the Treasury. Guaranteeing that the corporations represented in the NASDAQ, Dow, S&P, and NYSE are still able to finance continuing operations is of primary concern. Price levels of individual stocks or even whole indices are of a secondary nature. Massive gains will be available to the Fed and their insider (congress) associates once stocks are reduced to a massive junk heap of debt, enriched management, and damaged operations.
Currently being touted by the financial insiders is the notion that the stock market and the nation will bounce back quickly once the coronavirus is conquered, though that concept is fatally flawed for a number of reasons. First, the goal is to have zero deaths from COVID-19, a near impossibility given that the infection number has not even cracked the one percent level, with the US currently at 217,000 confirmed cases with 5,137 deaths. Second, many small businesses will not reopen when the "all clear" is given, whether that be at the end of April, or some time in July. Third, with most working-age Americans at home or out of a job, the spending level upon the return to some semblance of normalcy will be vastly reduced. GDP growth is likely to be negative for the second and third quarters and the entire year of 2020 will go down as one in which the US economy was running in reverse.
At this point, anyone who has not taken steps to remove money from the stock and bond markets is facing a world of hurt which could have been avoided. The appropriate investment stance at this juncture would likely be 75% cash and 25% in hard assets (real estate, precious metals). Sadly, the gullible American passive investment class has been conditioned to believe stocks will always bounce back and that bonds represent safety. Neither claim can be proven within the present paradigm. Stocks may bounce back, but that bounce may not occur for many years. Bonds may be safe, but at interest rates that are comparable to stuffing matresses with Federal Reserve Notes. And, it's probably not beyond the realm of probability that the almighty dollar will not survive in its current form. At the very least, as severe devaluation is in the cards.
Treasury yields were smashed lower, the curve significantly flattened on the day, with the 30-year bond at 1.27%, the 10-year note at 0.62%, and the full breadth of the curve a mere 124 basis points, down from 130 a day ago and 145 a week prior. These are serious declines, significant moves in a market that is supposed to be stable. The portent is for more dislocation, desperation, and, eventually, negative rates which will obliterate the currency as is happening in Japan and Europe.
Gold and silver are still largely unavailable from regular dealers even though prices on the futures exchanges are dropping, defying the laws of supply and demand. The best place to purchase precious metals in any form is currently ebay, where the market is brisk and one ounce gold coins can be purchased and quickly delivered for prices between $1690 and $1861 while the futures price hovers around $1590.
Silver is in an even better position for sellers, tacking on premiums of up to 100% to the posted price of $14.25 on the futures exchanges. On eBay, the lowest price for a one ounce coin or bar is currently $21.50, with most ranging from $23.00 to $29.00 and uncirculated coins fetching more, up to absurd prices in the $40 and higher range. With mines shut down in many countries, the shortage of bullion is only just beginning. A metal mania is upon us.
Oil prices have caught bids early Thursday morning, with WTI crude priced at $22.37, Brent at $27.19 at the time of this writing. With a supply glut and the Saudis pumping at nearly-full capacity and offering discounts, it's likely that these prices do not reflect reality on the ground nor are they likely to maintain their gains for long.
As another trading day approaches, regular people may be wondering when they will receive their bailout $1200 check or direct deposit from the government and how they will pay their rent or mortgage without a job or some form of assistance. It has been two weeks since Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and President Trump suggested that individuals would receive money within two weeks and nobody has seen a nickel. The bill to provide such assistance was passed last week by the Senate, House, and signed into law by President Trump.
On Wednesday, Mnuchin announced that Social Security recipients who do not regularly file tax returns will receive their checks or direct deposits without having to file "simple returns" as the IRS advised, according to TheHill.com. An actual date for dissemination of the monies was not disclosed, though it may be assumed that these recipients will receive their money along with their regular monthly payments. For the rest of the country, the waiting game continues, despite corporations already having trillions of dollars available to them via loans, loan guarantees or outright purchases of private debt issuance by the Federal Reserve, most of which is outside the Fed's normal chartered activities.
As for rent or mortgage payments, those are individual decisions. It is advisable to contact the landlord or mortgagee to work out payment options. Some landlords are deferring April rent payments while most lenders (represented in the main by servicers) have remained fairly tight-lipped on general guidelines relating to mortgage payments. Deferral is a likely solution, with the principal and interest being added to the end of the amortization schedule.
Just now, the Labor Department announced that unemployment insurance claims for the week ended March 28 doubled over the previous week to 6.64 million.
April and the second quarter is off to a very discouraging start.
At the Close, Wednesday, April 1, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 20,943.51, -973.69 (-4.44%)
NASDAQ: 7,360.58, -339.52 (-4.41%)
S&P 500: 2,470.50, -114.09 (-4.41%)
NYSE: 9,844.85, -457.05 (-4.44%)
Wednesday, April 1, 2020
Dow, S&P Mark Worst 1st Quarters Ever; Stocks Poised for Lower Open; Gold, Silver Markets in Turmoil
Closing out the first quarter of 2020 with a whimper, stocks opened to the downside, briefly turned positive, but the minor rally quickly fell apart sending the main indices to a close near the lows of the day. On the session, the NASDAQ was the best performer of the majors, the Dow the worst, followed closely by the S&P 500.
Thanks to the Wuhan Flu, coronavirus, COVID-19 or whatever one wishes to call the pathogen making its way around the planet, stocks really took it on the chin to start off the year. The major averages were all lower, even after making all-time highs in mid-February.
It was the worst quarter for the S&P since 2008 and the poorest quarterly performance for the Dow Jones Industrials since 1987. Both the Dow and S&P suffered through their worst first quarter ever. The Dow lost more than 23% of its value in January through March, as the S&P 500 fell 20% in the quarter. The NASDAQ didn't set any records but lost more than 14% in the first quarter.
With supply chain issues affecting companies in February and the advance of the virus in March, there's a good chance that GDP has been so negatively affected through first quarter, growth figures may have a minus sign in front of them when the first estimate of GDP will be announced on the fourth Friday of April. Mark your calendars for April 24 to see if the US will be half way to a recession or barely hanging onto some remnant of growth, any of it likely having occurred in January and early February. Any positive number would uplift the markets, but that is still a long way off and first up are employment figures for March. Wednesday, ADP reports private payrolls for the month and Friday the BLS reports on non-farm payrolls for March. Friday's number ought to be a market mover considering the massive job losses over the past week which will be figured into the calculations.
Gold got clobbered again, losing $46.30 per ounce on the day, dipping from $1623.40 Monday to $1577.10 Tuesday. Silver lost eight cents, closing out at $13.92. These prices are for paper contracts on the COMEX and other futures markets and are not aligning with current physical market dynamics. Both gold and silver are in short supply and dealers worldwide are charging severe premiums and assigning minimum purchases in some cases. Silver generally can be had for $20 to $25 per ounce. Gold is selling at roughly the $1800 level, though delivery times are delayed with waiting times up to 45 days in some cases.
As the futures prices and physical market prices diverge and decouple, it's only a matter of time before the fraudulent practices of settling contracts in cash rather than metal at the COMEX will become common knowledge and an open scandal as buyers standing for physical delivery are denied their right. As the coronavirus panic and attendant market turmoil extends, expect precious metals to rise dramatically in price as true owners of the metal divorce themselves from the bogus futures market.
The same is already occurring in the oil market with Saudi Arabia offering steep discounts to the published prices. WTI price continues to trend around $20 per barrel with gas prices across the United States, Canada and throughout Europe (using the Brent crude standard) at multi-year lows.
Experiencing more flattening across the curve, the treasury complex saw yields rise at the short and long durations, with the belly (1-year through 7-year) flatlining. As was the case with equities, bonds were little moved on the day.
ADP announces March private payrolls at 8:15 am ET on Wednesday. Futures are nearing limit down heading toward the opening bell.
At the Close, Tuesday, March 31, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 21,917.16, -410.32 (-1.84%)
NASDAQ: 7,700.10, -74.05 (-0.95%)
S&P 500: 2,584.59, -42.06 (-1.60%)
NYSE: 10,301.87, -132.88 (-1.27%)
Thanks to the Wuhan Flu, coronavirus, COVID-19 or whatever one wishes to call the pathogen making its way around the planet, stocks really took it on the chin to start off the year. The major averages were all lower, even after making all-time highs in mid-February.
It was the worst quarter for the S&P since 2008 and the poorest quarterly performance for the Dow Jones Industrials since 1987. Both the Dow and S&P suffered through their worst first quarter ever. The Dow lost more than 23% of its value in January through March, as the S&P 500 fell 20% in the quarter. The NASDAQ didn't set any records but lost more than 14% in the first quarter.
With supply chain issues affecting companies in February and the advance of the virus in March, there's a good chance that GDP has been so negatively affected through first quarter, growth figures may have a minus sign in front of them when the first estimate of GDP will be announced on the fourth Friday of April. Mark your calendars for April 24 to see if the US will be half way to a recession or barely hanging onto some remnant of growth, any of it likely having occurred in January and early February. Any positive number would uplift the markets, but that is still a long way off and first up are employment figures for March. Wednesday, ADP reports private payrolls for the month and Friday the BLS reports on non-farm payrolls for March. Friday's number ought to be a market mover considering the massive job losses over the past week which will be figured into the calculations.
Gold got clobbered again, losing $46.30 per ounce on the day, dipping from $1623.40 Monday to $1577.10 Tuesday. Silver lost eight cents, closing out at $13.92. These prices are for paper contracts on the COMEX and other futures markets and are not aligning with current physical market dynamics. Both gold and silver are in short supply and dealers worldwide are charging severe premiums and assigning minimum purchases in some cases. Silver generally can be had for $20 to $25 per ounce. Gold is selling at roughly the $1800 level, though delivery times are delayed with waiting times up to 45 days in some cases.
As the futures prices and physical market prices diverge and decouple, it's only a matter of time before the fraudulent practices of settling contracts in cash rather than metal at the COMEX will become common knowledge and an open scandal as buyers standing for physical delivery are denied their right. As the coronavirus panic and attendant market turmoil extends, expect precious metals to rise dramatically in price as true owners of the metal divorce themselves from the bogus futures market.
The same is already occurring in the oil market with Saudi Arabia offering steep discounts to the published prices. WTI price continues to trend around $20 per barrel with gas prices across the United States, Canada and throughout Europe (using the Brent crude standard) at multi-year lows.
Experiencing more flattening across the curve, the treasury complex saw yields rise at the short and long durations, with the belly (1-year through 7-year) flatlining. As was the case with equities, bonds were little moved on the day.
ADP announces March private payrolls at 8:15 am ET on Wednesday. Futures are nearing limit down heading toward the opening bell.
At the Close, Tuesday, March 31, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 21,917.16, -410.32 (-1.84%)
NASDAQ: 7,700.10, -74.05 (-0.95%)
S&P 500: 2,584.59, -42.06 (-1.60%)
NYSE: 10,301.87, -132.88 (-1.27%)
Tuesday, March 31, 2020
As Usual, Government Solutions Are Wrong, Damaging the Economy as COVID-19 Ravages the Planet
The trading desk at the NY Fed apparently bought everything, all day long.
That's not a joke. It's probably much closer to the truth than many would believe.
Since the Fed took steps to backstop every bond, loan, or financial obligation on the planet over the past two weeks, and the Congress and President passed a $2.2 trillion rescue relief bill last week, stocks have done nothing but shoot the moon higher as four of the past five trading sessions have been positive for the Dow, S&P and NYSE Composite, and three of five for the NASDAQ.
Amid a crisis condition across the country and around the globe, this kind of action - with similar moves in international markets as well - is completely devoid of any fundamental pricing structure. Simply throwing more good money after bad seems to be the only way the Fed operates, as if it were in a void zone and it's the worst kind of malinvestment, chasing away the demon of real price discovery by throwing more fake, phony, fiat currency at it.
At current levels, the major indices have achieved bear market territory and are about as likely to escape it as President Trump is to refrain from tweeting. With giant swaths of the economy shut down for the past two weeks and looking forward to another month of idleness, stocks should be going down, not up. Even down as much as 60% from their recent peak, many stocks are still overvalued and the main indices are settled in at or near levels that are 40-60% (NASDAQ) higher than prevailing levels in 2007 prior to the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), indicating that stocks, rather then stabilizing at current levels, hav emuch further to fall.
The degree of decline should be back to levels below the lows of 2008-09, since the issues which caused the crash then were never addressed in any meaningful manner, instead just kicked down the road. Banks and corporations have re-leveraged well beyond any reasonable price, using nearly-free money from the Fed to perform stock buybacks, boosting prices to extremes.
Initially, the cascading waterfall of falling stock prices as COVID-19 panic became evident was justifiable, more extreme than the beginning of any bear market including 1929, 2000, and 2008, ending nowhere near a bottom.
The Fed's bazooka-style blitzkrieg has blown up the markets, exacerbated by the rescue relief package. It won't last. Eventually, the near-term lows will be tested, re-tested, and finally exceeded as the long, slow grind of a second phase bear market assumes command. All the money in the world - and that's how much the Fed has at its disposal - cannot prevent another wave of selling, and another, and another, nor can it limit the size and scope of the global tragedy that will unfold in coming months and years.
In its latest attempt to curry favor from the masses, the CDC proposed a best-case prognosis of 200,000 deaths from COVID-19, but that number pales by comparison to the economic and social damage the policies of demand isolation, shuttering of businesses, and crushing unemployment will produce over the next 12-18 months.
Government policy promoting social distancing, travel restrictions, and business closures are misguided and harmful, will not contain the virus to satisfactory levels and are likely to foment a Greater Depression worse than 1929 in terms of unemployment, poverty, and malnourishment. Sadly, almost all other developed and developing nations have taken a similar approach, a groupthink solution that isn't a solution at all, but rather a quest for more control, more power, and more curtailment of civil liberties by the authorities currently in charge.
Other approaches are better suited to achieve better results, especially ones suggested in a brilliant essay by Percy Carlton for the Saker Blog, titled Covid-19 Derangement Syndrome: A World Gone Mad.
Carlton relies upon logic and science to achieve his solutions, rather then the over-emotional reaction of today's government incompetents. It is a must read for everyone, especially those who value freedom of choice, liberty, and thoughtful self-expression over government controls, socialized solutions, pharmacological mandates, pseudo-science, and pathological lies.
Laid bare before the American public and the world is the staggering incompetence and outrageous insolence of world "leaders." Beyond that lies an unpromising land of replete with shortages, monetary imbalances, fiscal irresponsibility, societal dislocation, rioting, looting, starvation, and death which could have been avoided.
Lack of advance planning and reliance on extreme measures adopted from China's experience with coronavirus, combined with political grandstanding and media obsession and obfuscation of facts have the world lumbering toward desperation. The longer the general public is subjected to the dictates of the administration the worse the condition will become.
Defeating the disease is the easy part. Putting back together the pieces of a broken global economy figures to be a more difficult task, one which sovereign governments and a central banking cartel are not well-suited to handle.
Meanwhile, the treasury curve flattens out, with the 10-year note yield slipping to 0.70% on Monday. Gold and silver remain difficult to obtain at prices well above the futures levels. Crude oil has fallen to 18-year lows with the price of gasoline falling in line.
The recent rally has nowhere to go under current conditions and should not have happened in the first place even under the best of circumstances, which are certainly not prevalent.
At the Close, Monday, March 30, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 22,327.48, +690.70 (+3.19%)
NASDAQ: 7,774.15, +271.77 (+3.62%)
S&P 500: 2,626.65, +85.18 (+3.35%)
NYSE: 10,434.75, +247.54 (+2.43%)
That's not a joke. It's probably much closer to the truth than many would believe.
Since the Fed took steps to backstop every bond, loan, or financial obligation on the planet over the past two weeks, and the Congress and President passed a $2.2 trillion rescue relief bill last week, stocks have done nothing but shoot the moon higher as four of the past five trading sessions have been positive for the Dow, S&P and NYSE Composite, and three of five for the NASDAQ.
Amid a crisis condition across the country and around the globe, this kind of action - with similar moves in international markets as well - is completely devoid of any fundamental pricing structure. Simply throwing more good money after bad seems to be the only way the Fed operates, as if it were in a void zone and it's the worst kind of malinvestment, chasing away the demon of real price discovery by throwing more fake, phony, fiat currency at it.
At current levels, the major indices have achieved bear market territory and are about as likely to escape it as President Trump is to refrain from tweeting. With giant swaths of the economy shut down for the past two weeks and looking forward to another month of idleness, stocks should be going down, not up. Even down as much as 60% from their recent peak, many stocks are still overvalued and the main indices are settled in at or near levels that are 40-60% (NASDAQ) higher than prevailing levels in 2007 prior to the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), indicating that stocks, rather then stabilizing at current levels, hav emuch further to fall.
The degree of decline should be back to levels below the lows of 2008-09, since the issues which caused the crash then were never addressed in any meaningful manner, instead just kicked down the road. Banks and corporations have re-leveraged well beyond any reasonable price, using nearly-free money from the Fed to perform stock buybacks, boosting prices to extremes.
Initially, the cascading waterfall of falling stock prices as COVID-19 panic became evident was justifiable, more extreme than the beginning of any bear market including 1929, 2000, and 2008, ending nowhere near a bottom.
The Fed's bazooka-style blitzkrieg has blown up the markets, exacerbated by the rescue relief package. It won't last. Eventually, the near-term lows will be tested, re-tested, and finally exceeded as the long, slow grind of a second phase bear market assumes command. All the money in the world - and that's how much the Fed has at its disposal - cannot prevent another wave of selling, and another, and another, nor can it limit the size and scope of the global tragedy that will unfold in coming months and years.
In its latest attempt to curry favor from the masses, the CDC proposed a best-case prognosis of 200,000 deaths from COVID-19, but that number pales by comparison to the economic and social damage the policies of demand isolation, shuttering of businesses, and crushing unemployment will produce over the next 12-18 months.
Government policy promoting social distancing, travel restrictions, and business closures are misguided and harmful, will not contain the virus to satisfactory levels and are likely to foment a Greater Depression worse than 1929 in terms of unemployment, poverty, and malnourishment. Sadly, almost all other developed and developing nations have taken a similar approach, a groupthink solution that isn't a solution at all, but rather a quest for more control, more power, and more curtailment of civil liberties by the authorities currently in charge.
Other approaches are better suited to achieve better results, especially ones suggested in a brilliant essay by Percy Carlton for the Saker Blog, titled Covid-19 Derangement Syndrome: A World Gone Mad.
Carlton relies upon logic and science to achieve his solutions, rather then the over-emotional reaction of today's government incompetents. It is a must read for everyone, especially those who value freedom of choice, liberty, and thoughtful self-expression over government controls, socialized solutions, pharmacological mandates, pseudo-science, and pathological lies.
Laid bare before the American public and the world is the staggering incompetence and outrageous insolence of world "leaders." Beyond that lies an unpromising land of replete with shortages, monetary imbalances, fiscal irresponsibility, societal dislocation, rioting, looting, starvation, and death which could have been avoided.
Lack of advance planning and reliance on extreme measures adopted from China's experience with coronavirus, combined with political grandstanding and media obsession and obfuscation of facts have the world lumbering toward desperation. The longer the general public is subjected to the dictates of the administration the worse the condition will become.
Defeating the disease is the easy part. Putting back together the pieces of a broken global economy figures to be a more difficult task, one which sovereign governments and a central banking cartel are not well-suited to handle.
Meanwhile, the treasury curve flattens out, with the 10-year note yield slipping to 0.70% on Monday. Gold and silver remain difficult to obtain at prices well above the futures levels. Crude oil has fallen to 18-year lows with the price of gasoline falling in line.
The recent rally has nowhere to go under current conditions and should not have happened in the first place even under the best of circumstances, which are certainly not prevalent.
At the Close, Monday, March 30, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 22,327.48, +690.70 (+3.19%)
NASDAQ: 7,774.15, +271.77 (+3.62%)
S&P 500: 2,626.65, +85.18 (+3.35%)
NYSE: 10,434.75, +247.54 (+2.43%)
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