Just a week ago, gold and silver futures were smashed lower after running up incredibly over the prior six months. Gold had reached a record high in dollar terms and silver had put on a nearly 60% gain from its mid-March bottom.
Then came the not-unexpected selloff that sent silver down nearly 15% and gold off by more than $100 in just one day (Tuesday, August 11). Some pundits of stocks and other paper currency derivatives were calling it the end of the bull run, but serious holders of precious metals were unswayed by the day's events. Many bullion dealers reported that instead of people rushing in to sell them their gold and silver, they saw record sales. Buyers were responding to the lower price as an incentive to buy more on the cheap.
As time progress to the present, the prices of both metals have recovered quite nicely, thank you very much. Silver, which had been testing the $29 mark, is currently trading in a range between $28.35 and $28.50, not far from the point at which it was pummeled a week prior. Gold is once again above $2000 an ounce, and looks to be heading higher. As of this pre-market writing, it's priced at $2015 on the futures market. The point from which it had fallen - $2050 - is once again targeted and all indications are that gold will continue to make new highs against the US dollar - and most other major currencies - for the foreseeable future.
The quick bounce in price off the shock selloff indicates the overwhelming demand for precious metals that has persisted since the start of the pandemic in March, with premiums at near-record levels and shortages reported throughout the bullion markets for everything from one ounce coins to 400-ounce bars, from London to Zurich, to Hong Kong and New York. People are rushing to buy gold and silver primarily for one reason and one reason only: they mistrust their governments and their central bank currency.
Nobody can dispute that the vast majority of sovereign currencies (likely all of them) have lost value over any period of time measured, be it just the past six months or the past six or 60 years. Otherwise known as inflation, the decimation of purchasing power in the major currencies (especially the UK pound sterling and US dollar) has been profound. Backed by nothing other than faith and trust in government institutions and the central banks which finance them, national currencies are being roundly rejected by the illuminati and people of progressive thinking.
Millennials may be flocking to other forms of safety, particularly crypto currencies like Bitcoin and Etherium, but baby boomers and beyond are old school hoarders of gold and silver, the effects seen in the day-to-day transactions by online bullion dealers, local coin shops and trading sites such as eBay.
(Check the latest "people's prices" on our gold and silver tracking page, which evidences the high premiums over spot being paid.)
The metals have bounced back well for now. What's next? New highs or another overnight raid?
At the Close, Monday, August 17, 2020:
Dow: 27,844.91, -86.11 (-0.31%)
NASDAQ: 11,129.73, +110.42 (+1.00%)
S&P 500: 3,381.99, +9.14 (+0.27%)
NYSE: 12,936.11, +33.61 (+0.26%)
Tuesday, August 18, 2020
Sunday, August 16, 2020
WEEKEND WRAP: A Quiet Week Disrupted By Bond and Bullion Smackdowns; Congress Remains Of Questionable Value
If the week just past seemed rather dull to you, it's not myopia or boredom. Everything just appears to be in a state of suspended animation.
The biggest event of the prior seven days was no doubt the massive takedown on gold and silver futures. While such raids are completely expected events, this most recent one was rather harsh. On Tuesday, spot gold crashed from $2,027.34 to $1,911.89, a decline of 5.7%, but, it was outdone by silver, which was spanked a nasty 14.9%, from $29.13 to $24.79.
Both metals recovered from the massacre, gold ending the week at $1,945.12, silver at $26.45 per ounce. Silver is still sporting a year-to-date return of 48.14%, tops among tradable assets worldwide. Gold's up 28.20%. Despite the recent smackdown, both metals are beating the pants off equities and fixed income.
Ted Bulter supplies a reasoned commentary on the selloff, with some technical assumptions and his usual wealth of market wisdom.
Andrew Mcguire's comments on the plunge were featured in Friday's Money Daily and is an equally compelling account.
Crude oil continued to be stuck in it's own sludge. The current price of $42.01 is near the top of the recent range, which has been slight. Since July 1, WTI crude has traded between $39.82 and $42.67, falling below $40 per barrel (on a closing basis) only once during that span (July 30, $39.92).
Oil's stability has kept prices at the pump in equilibrium with most Americans' thinner wallets. According to AAA, the average cost of a gallon of unleaded gas is $2.18. The average is skewed upwards by California, which has the highest price in the contiguous 48 states, at $3.205. Driving is cheapest in the Southeast, with most states under $2.00. Mississippi has the lowest average in the country, at $1.823. Jones county, MS, has the lowest average price, checking in at $1.692.
The only other place any movement was seen was fixed income. Long-dated treasuries tacked on yield, sending prices plummeting. Yield on the 30-year bond rose from 1.23% last Friday (Aug. 7) to 1.45% on August 14. The 10-year tacked on 14 basis points, from 1.57% to 1.71% on Friday. Shorter-dated maturities might as well be yielding nothing. Anything 2 years of shorter yields less than 0.15% and are negative in real terms.
It's hard to determine whether rising bond prices or zero-bound yields are a bigger headache for the Fed. On the one hand, yields below 1.5% (the entire complex) aren't exactly enticing to buyers nor do they inspire confidence in the economy going forward. Rising yields threaten to cause flight from stocks, tighter conditions and higher borrowing costs, a trifecta of bad outcomes.
The Fed has itself in a naughty fix. Its attempt at controlling the curve may be akin to trying to thread a needle from 100 miles out. Pinpoint accuracy is required, but real world conditions prevent any attempt at being even close to the mark. The best the Fed can do is pretend they have control via occasional speech-giving by member presidents and the usual cry of "no change" at the usual FOMC meetings and press conferences.
So, that just about covers the waterfront. Besides the Dow's 1.81% and the composite's 1.07% gains on the week, stocks were literally frozen in place, a position amplified by Friday's performance, a complete flattening out across all the major indices.
Blah might be the prevailing sentiment as the slog through August continues and congress drags on its holiday without providing relief to the American public with any kind of stimulus bill, needed or not. The churlish and childish approach to governance displayed by the current occupants of congressional seats amrks a new low in American politics, with the bar already pretty close to ground level.
The only way for the politicians to go seems to be up. Almost anything they do would qualify as an improvement over their performance the past three months wherein they've accomplished absolutely nothing. Perhaps, if lowered expectations are to be the norm, Americans might be best off ignoring anything they do, propose, or pontificate upon. As a group, they've proven themselves about as useful as a band-aid would be on a broken arm.
Less dependence on the whims, actions, and predilections of elected (and non-elected) masters in Washington DC, or even at state and local levels might not be a novel idea, but it is one which, unfortunately, the country is moving away from at an alarming pace. From Wall Street to the neighbors next door, everybody seems to have their hands out, seeking solutions from people who not only don't have any, but are the proximate cause for the fix we're in to begin with. COVID-19 has accounted for illness and some additional deaths, but government's response will result in fracturing an already fragile society and severe damage to the national psyche, and we're still not even close to the horrors that await us come the elections in November.
We might as well sacrifice lambs to a mythical sun god for all the good the politicians are doing.
Maybe if everybody just stayed home and refrained from voting at all, some of these posers and self-appointed magistrates of rule-making might get the message that they're neither needed nor wanted.
Fat chance of that. And please, whatever you do, do not watch or support any sporting event on TV that does not allow fans into the arena or stadium. Games without fans is like having a steak without seasoning nor a baked potato or vegetable, or a hot dog without mustard or even a bun. It's just not very appealing.
With that, here's a look at recent prices for popular precious metal items on ebay (shipping - often free - included):
Item: Low / High / Average / Median
1 oz silver coin: 32.52 / 37.99 / 35.01 / 35.00
1 oz silver bar: 32.99 / 36.90 / 35.49 / 35.99
1 oz gold coin: 2,010.00 / 2,152.82 / 2,072.02 / 2,061.61
1 oz gold bar: 2,000.00 / 2,153.95 / 2,077.05 / 2,073.58
The result of our review here is interesting in that silver, which suffered a nearly 15% decline in the futures market, barely skipped a beat. This is primarily due to two overriding factors: first, the price of spot silver locked in on Friday August 7 was $28.33, which wasn't far from the closing - post-smackdown - price on Friday, August 14, $26.70. The $1.63 change is hardly notable, being a decline of just over five percent. Second, silver is still - relative to gold - very inexpensive, thus, the very active physical market is still willing to pay hefty premiums to acquire the metal. Normally quite volatile, silver futures and spot prices do not change from Fridays at 5:00 pm ET to Sundays at 6:00 pm ET.
Prices paid for gold coins and bars were more consequential, down, on average, $74-$80. The median gold coin was down by more than $100 compared to the prior week.
Downtown Magazine has also launched a new page showing historical prices for these same items since Money Daily began tracking them on April 18. Prices are recorded every Sunday morning at approximately 8:00 - 10:00 am. Numismatics and specialty items are excluded, resulting in a regular, rational reading on what people are actually paying, an advancing necessitating diversion from the atypical gyrations in the futures markets.
While futures and spot prices have been the norm for some time, they may have outlived their usefulness for millions of savers, stackers and small speculators who seek a semblance of regularity and steadiness in their investments and currencies. We hope to expand upon tracking historical prices to include prices from the more popular dealers on the internet in the near future. We trust their cooperation may prove to unshackle the precious metals from the tyranny of arbitrary paper price discovery and the machinations of central bankers and their cohorts.
At the Close, Friday, August 14, 2020:
Dow: 27,931.02, +34.30 (+0.12%)
NASDAQ: 11,019.30, -23.20 (-0.21%)
S&P 500: 3,372.85, -0.58 (-0.02%)
NYSE: 12,902.50, -16.64 (-0.13%)
For the Week:
Dow: +497.54 (+1.81%)
NASDAQ: +8.32 (+0.08%)
S&P 500: +21.57 (+0.64%)
NYSE: +136.66 (+1.07%)
The biggest event of the prior seven days was no doubt the massive takedown on gold and silver futures. While such raids are completely expected events, this most recent one was rather harsh. On Tuesday, spot gold crashed from $2,027.34 to $1,911.89, a decline of 5.7%, but, it was outdone by silver, which was spanked a nasty 14.9%, from $29.13 to $24.79.
Both metals recovered from the massacre, gold ending the week at $1,945.12, silver at $26.45 per ounce. Silver is still sporting a year-to-date return of 48.14%, tops among tradable assets worldwide. Gold's up 28.20%. Despite the recent smackdown, both metals are beating the pants off equities and fixed income.
Ted Bulter supplies a reasoned commentary on the selloff, with some technical assumptions and his usual wealth of market wisdom.
Andrew Mcguire's comments on the plunge were featured in Friday's Money Daily and is an equally compelling account.
Crude oil continued to be stuck in it's own sludge. The current price of $42.01 is near the top of the recent range, which has been slight. Since July 1, WTI crude has traded between $39.82 and $42.67, falling below $40 per barrel (on a closing basis) only once during that span (July 30, $39.92).
Oil's stability has kept prices at the pump in equilibrium with most Americans' thinner wallets. According to AAA, the average cost of a gallon of unleaded gas is $2.18. The average is skewed upwards by California, which has the highest price in the contiguous 48 states, at $3.205. Driving is cheapest in the Southeast, with most states under $2.00. Mississippi has the lowest average in the country, at $1.823. Jones county, MS, has the lowest average price, checking in at $1.692.
The only other place any movement was seen was fixed income. Long-dated treasuries tacked on yield, sending prices plummeting. Yield on the 30-year bond rose from 1.23% last Friday (Aug. 7) to 1.45% on August 14. The 10-year tacked on 14 basis points, from 1.57% to 1.71% on Friday. Shorter-dated maturities might as well be yielding nothing. Anything 2 years of shorter yields less than 0.15% and are negative in real terms.
It's hard to determine whether rising bond prices or zero-bound yields are a bigger headache for the Fed. On the one hand, yields below 1.5% (the entire complex) aren't exactly enticing to buyers nor do they inspire confidence in the economy going forward. Rising yields threaten to cause flight from stocks, tighter conditions and higher borrowing costs, a trifecta of bad outcomes.
The Fed has itself in a naughty fix. Its attempt at controlling the curve may be akin to trying to thread a needle from 100 miles out. Pinpoint accuracy is required, but real world conditions prevent any attempt at being even close to the mark. The best the Fed can do is pretend they have control via occasional speech-giving by member presidents and the usual cry of "no change" at the usual FOMC meetings and press conferences.
So, that just about covers the waterfront. Besides the Dow's 1.81% and the composite's 1.07% gains on the week, stocks were literally frozen in place, a position amplified by Friday's performance, a complete flattening out across all the major indices.
Blah might be the prevailing sentiment as the slog through August continues and congress drags on its holiday without providing relief to the American public with any kind of stimulus bill, needed or not. The churlish and childish approach to governance displayed by the current occupants of congressional seats amrks a new low in American politics, with the bar already pretty close to ground level.
The only way for the politicians to go seems to be up. Almost anything they do would qualify as an improvement over their performance the past three months wherein they've accomplished absolutely nothing. Perhaps, if lowered expectations are to be the norm, Americans might be best off ignoring anything they do, propose, or pontificate upon. As a group, they've proven themselves about as useful as a band-aid would be on a broken arm.
Less dependence on the whims, actions, and predilections of elected (and non-elected) masters in Washington DC, or even at state and local levels might not be a novel idea, but it is one which, unfortunately, the country is moving away from at an alarming pace. From Wall Street to the neighbors next door, everybody seems to have their hands out, seeking solutions from people who not only don't have any, but are the proximate cause for the fix we're in to begin with. COVID-19 has accounted for illness and some additional deaths, but government's response will result in fracturing an already fragile society and severe damage to the national psyche, and we're still not even close to the horrors that await us come the elections in November.
We might as well sacrifice lambs to a mythical sun god for all the good the politicians are doing.
Maybe if everybody just stayed home and refrained from voting at all, some of these posers and self-appointed magistrates of rule-making might get the message that they're neither needed nor wanted.
Fat chance of that. And please, whatever you do, do not watch or support any sporting event on TV that does not allow fans into the arena or stadium. Games without fans is like having a steak without seasoning nor a baked potato or vegetable, or a hot dog without mustard or even a bun. It's just not very appealing.
With that, here's a look at recent prices for popular precious metal items on ebay (shipping - often free - included):
Item: Low / High / Average / Median
1 oz silver coin: 32.52 / 37.99 / 35.01 / 35.00
1 oz silver bar: 32.99 / 36.90 / 35.49 / 35.99
1 oz gold coin: 2,010.00 / 2,152.82 / 2,072.02 / 2,061.61
1 oz gold bar: 2,000.00 / 2,153.95 / 2,077.05 / 2,073.58
The result of our review here is interesting in that silver, which suffered a nearly 15% decline in the futures market, barely skipped a beat. This is primarily due to two overriding factors: first, the price of spot silver locked in on Friday August 7 was $28.33, which wasn't far from the closing - post-smackdown - price on Friday, August 14, $26.70. The $1.63 change is hardly notable, being a decline of just over five percent. Second, silver is still - relative to gold - very inexpensive, thus, the very active physical market is still willing to pay hefty premiums to acquire the metal. Normally quite volatile, silver futures and spot prices do not change from Fridays at 5:00 pm ET to Sundays at 6:00 pm ET.
Prices paid for gold coins and bars were more consequential, down, on average, $74-$80. The median gold coin was down by more than $100 compared to the prior week.
Downtown Magazine has also launched a new page showing historical prices for these same items since Money Daily began tracking them on April 18. Prices are recorded every Sunday morning at approximately 8:00 - 10:00 am. Numismatics and specialty items are excluded, resulting in a regular, rational reading on what people are actually paying, an advancing necessitating diversion from the atypical gyrations in the futures markets.
While futures and spot prices have been the norm for some time, they may have outlived their usefulness for millions of savers, stackers and small speculators who seek a semblance of regularity and steadiness in their investments and currencies. We hope to expand upon tracking historical prices to include prices from the more popular dealers on the internet in the near future. We trust their cooperation may prove to unshackle the precious metals from the tyranny of arbitrary paper price discovery and the machinations of central bankers and their cohorts.
At the Close, Friday, August 14, 2020:
Dow: 27,931.02, +34.30 (+0.12%)
NASDAQ: 11,019.30, -23.20 (-0.21%)
S&P 500: 3,372.85, -0.58 (-0.02%)
NYSE: 12,902.50, -16.64 (-0.13%)
For the Week:
Dow: +497.54 (+1.81%)
NASDAQ: +8.32 (+0.08%)
S&P 500: +21.57 (+0.64%)
NYSE: +136.66 (+1.07%)
Friday, August 14, 2020
Markets Shaky As Congress Abrogates Responsibility On Coronavirus Stimulus Legislation
Markets got a little bit shaky on Thursday, the main driver seemingly congress' inability to come together on a stimulus package to help out struggling Americans.
The Dems want $3.5 billion which would include a lot of extras, such as up to $150 billion in direct aid to states, localities, and school districts. The Republican plan is more streamlined and less expensive at around $1 trillion. Both plans include another $1200 check for individuals and some form of extended unemployment benefits, the Democrats calling for an extension of the $600 weekly though the end of the year, the Republicans wanting to lower the amount to $200 or $400 for a few months, and then base the extra federal payout plus regular state unemployment to become 70% of employees' regular pay.
The reality of the situation is that both parties' members are out of town, away on their usual month-long August hiatus and won't return until after Labor Day, September 7. Unless the president's executive orders issued over the past weekend pan out, all hell will have broken loose by then. There are an estimated 30 million Americans out of work presently and the so-called recovery has begun to stall out.
That's taking its toll on investors who are afraid that the rally, which has been engaged since mid-March, is about to roll over. Most of the upside in stocks over the past six months has been due to nothing other than Fed largesse, with the central bank basically sopping up assets from every corner of the country, and to a lesser extent, executing swaps on the international stage. Everything from high yield junk to AAA corporate offerings are on the Fed's menu and they've been busy chowing down like a gang of frat boys at an all-you-can-eat buffet.
An economy and stock market built almost entirely on central bank counterfeiting is not a long-lasting solution and everybody on Wall Street knows that, but they're getting while the getting is good. The S&P touched its all-time closing high on Thursday but backed off as selling intensified in the afternoon. Bonds were being sold off as well. The 30-year closed Thursday with a yield of 1.42%; the 10-year note ended at 0.71%. The yield on the 30-year is at a one-month high, but more troubling is the 10-year. One has to go all the way back to March 26 (0.72%) to find a yield higher than yesterday's close.
The Federal Reserve cannot allow rates on treasuries to rise much more as they would soon become more attractive than stocks. The very last thing the Fed wants is a stock market crash and high yields on treasuries as that would indicate just how serious the economic condition is in the United States. The overriding narrative has been that the Fed has a handle on everything and all is well. At least if things do get sideways, they can lay the blame on politicians for not acting prudently or quickly enough.
Following up on our reportage on Tuesday's massive selloff in gold and silver, Andrew Maguire explains that the price "takedown" was executed as part of a strategy by the CME to achieve equilibrium in the market, because silver (and gold) for delivery as far as three months out - largely unavailable - was too cheap.
There's a lot of background knowledge into Maguire's analysis and it's difficult for anyone without an understanding of how futures markets work (almost everybody) to follow, but the bottom line, according to the expert, is that gold and silver were not negatively affected long term and are still on their ways to higher prices in the near and long term.
For anybody in already invested in or thinking about investing in gold or silver, this is a good video to view as it points up the gamesmanship in the futures market and the need for more transparency in an effort toward true price discovery.
With price discovery in mind, Downtown Magazine's Money Daily is planning to launch a new page devoted to real prices for smaller gold and silver purchases, mainly one ounce coins and bars, quoting major bullion dealers and actual sale prices on eBay for these common, high demand items. An alpha test page will be launched this Sunday along with the usual WEEKEND WRAP.
Friday looks like it could be more signal than the usual noise, with European markets stressed and US futures pointing toward an open to the downside.
Play nice. See you on Sunday.
At the Close, Thursday, August 13, 2020:
Dow: 27,896.72, -80.12 (-0.29%)
NASDAQ: 11,042.50, +30.26 (+0.27%)
S&P 500: 3,373.43, -6.92 (-0.20%)
NYSE: 12,919.15, -55.68 (-0.43%)
The Dems want $3.5 billion which would include a lot of extras, such as up to $150 billion in direct aid to states, localities, and school districts. The Republican plan is more streamlined and less expensive at around $1 trillion. Both plans include another $1200 check for individuals and some form of extended unemployment benefits, the Democrats calling for an extension of the $600 weekly though the end of the year, the Republicans wanting to lower the amount to $200 or $400 for a few months, and then base the extra federal payout plus regular state unemployment to become 70% of employees' regular pay.
The reality of the situation is that both parties' members are out of town, away on their usual month-long August hiatus and won't return until after Labor Day, September 7. Unless the president's executive orders issued over the past weekend pan out, all hell will have broken loose by then. There are an estimated 30 million Americans out of work presently and the so-called recovery has begun to stall out.
That's taking its toll on investors who are afraid that the rally, which has been engaged since mid-March, is about to roll over. Most of the upside in stocks over the past six months has been due to nothing other than Fed largesse, with the central bank basically sopping up assets from every corner of the country, and to a lesser extent, executing swaps on the international stage. Everything from high yield junk to AAA corporate offerings are on the Fed's menu and they've been busy chowing down like a gang of frat boys at an all-you-can-eat buffet.
An economy and stock market built almost entirely on central bank counterfeiting is not a long-lasting solution and everybody on Wall Street knows that, but they're getting while the getting is good. The S&P touched its all-time closing high on Thursday but backed off as selling intensified in the afternoon. Bonds were being sold off as well. The 30-year closed Thursday with a yield of 1.42%; the 10-year note ended at 0.71%. The yield on the 30-year is at a one-month high, but more troubling is the 10-year. One has to go all the way back to March 26 (0.72%) to find a yield higher than yesterday's close.
The Federal Reserve cannot allow rates on treasuries to rise much more as they would soon become more attractive than stocks. The very last thing the Fed wants is a stock market crash and high yields on treasuries as that would indicate just how serious the economic condition is in the United States. The overriding narrative has been that the Fed has a handle on everything and all is well. At least if things do get sideways, they can lay the blame on politicians for not acting prudently or quickly enough.
Following up on our reportage on Tuesday's massive selloff in gold and silver, Andrew Maguire explains that the price "takedown" was executed as part of a strategy by the CME to achieve equilibrium in the market, because silver (and gold) for delivery as far as three months out - largely unavailable - was too cheap.
There's a lot of background knowledge into Maguire's analysis and it's difficult for anyone without an understanding of how futures markets work (almost everybody) to follow, but the bottom line, according to the expert, is that gold and silver were not negatively affected long term and are still on their ways to higher prices in the near and long term.
For anybody in already invested in or thinking about investing in gold or silver, this is a good video to view as it points up the gamesmanship in the futures market and the need for more transparency in an effort toward true price discovery.
With price discovery in mind, Downtown Magazine's Money Daily is planning to launch a new page devoted to real prices for smaller gold and silver purchases, mainly one ounce coins and bars, quoting major bullion dealers and actual sale prices on eBay for these common, high demand items. An alpha test page will be launched this Sunday along with the usual WEEKEND WRAP.
Friday looks like it could be more signal than the usual noise, with European markets stressed and US futures pointing toward an open to the downside.
Play nice. See you on Sunday.
At the Close, Thursday, August 13, 2020:
Dow: 27,896.72, -80.12 (-0.29%)
NASDAQ: 11,042.50, +30.26 (+0.27%)
S&P 500: 3,373.43, -6.92 (-0.20%)
NYSE: 12,919.15, -55.68 (-0.43%)
Thursday, August 13, 2020
Bankruptcies About To Go Ballistic As America's Nightmare Turns To Election Distraction
Question: What do Neiman Marcus, JC Penny's, Lord & Taylor, Men's Warehouse, Pier 1 Imports, Brooks Brothers, J. Crew, and Ann Taylor have in common?
If you answered that they are all retailers, you're on the right track, but only partially correct. They are all former retailers, because the correct answer is that - according to this Yahoo! Finance article - they've all filed for bankruptcy protection within the past six months.
They are not alone, of course. Many other big companies have gone the bankruptcy route, along with scores of smaller firms. About 3,600 companies filed for Chapter 11 in the first half of 2020 nationwide, more than any year since 2012, according to the American Bankruptcy Institute. That number may not sound very large, but it should be couched in the understanding that these are corporations, and many smaller companies, sole proprietorships, LLCs, partnerships and such haven't bothered to go through the legal system
Updating those figures, there were another 642 filings in July, pushing chapter 11 U.S. Commercial Bankruptcy Filings up 52% in the month. Through July, Chapter 11 commercial filings are up 30% over the same period last year, with a total of 4,246 filings.
The same article notes that Chapter 13 (personal) non-commercial filings are actually down 38% so far in 2020, with 99,136 filings, from 159,602 filings in the same period of 2019. Chapter 7 - which is liquidation - non-commercial filings are down 21% in July 2020 with 30,177 new filings, which is down from 38,033 the same period of 2019.
However, total non-commercial filings have increased each of the last four months and are up 11% since April, with 40,072 in July 2020, which is up from 36,151 in April 2020.
What all these numbers are suggesting is that some big retailers took an early exit with more business failures on the way, and that governments, banks and other credit institutions have done a good job of incentivizing bad behavior by allowing people to skip rent and mortgage payments, car payments, credit card payments and student loan payments. Such programs began in March or April, with the onset of the coronavirus and resulting government responses and continue today, in some cases being extended far beyond what was originally considered prudent.
Between the actions by the Federal Reserve, federal and state governments, banks, mortgage, and credit companies, the whoop-butt can of financial ruin that's descended upon American and the world has been kicked down the proverbial road for six months and counting.
But, time is running out and the consequences of playing along with stupid quick-fixes like temporary furloughs, deferrals, forbearance, and other cutesy-sounding programs like "stay safe at home" and "wear a mask" are leading to a major disaster later this year, just in time for - you guessed it - the elections in November.
Not trying to sound too cynical, it's a safe bet that much of what's happened so far in 2020 was thought out well in advance, as a means to inflict the maximum amount of fear, pain, and suffering upon the U.S. electorate. The fright dials will be turned up significantly as summer turns to fall and the elections of 2020 approach. Of course, the big one is the presidency, which has the Trump-Pence team lined up to defend its incumbency against the Biden-Harris squad.
To the assembled mainstream media, this looks like a fair fight. To anybody who hasn't been persuaded that president Trump is a secret Russian agent, a racist, or an otherwise evil person, the 2020 presidential race appears to be close to a slam dunk for the Republicans because they have more money, better candidates (Joe Biden is likely suffering from Alzheimer's or some other form of dementia), a better platform (Dems are running a "We Hate Donald" campaign), and Donald Trump will make mincemeat out of Joe Biden if and when there is a debate.
The elections are a but a sideshow to the national nightmare that is unfolding. Whoever wins locally, statewide, nationally, will have to dal with the same problems. Candidates on either side are barely equipped with enough skills to get them through a day without saying something utterly stupid, so who wins and who loses won't make much of a difference. Election hoopla and assorted finger-pointing, name-calling and mud-slinging will prove to be a short-lived distraction from the real issues.
That said, the global catastrophe that has been slowly proceeding is going to accelerate in the fall and winter. There will be more COVID cases, more deaths, more panic, all of it made up by an out-of-control media and government propagandists. Almost nothing presented so far has been trustworthy or useful and the coming spate of glaring, scary headlines and fake news stories are pretty much assured to be complete fabrications.
As the seasons change, people are going to find out that their unemployment insurance payments do actually run out at some time, deferrals of rent, mortgage, credit card, auto loan, and other debt didn't stop the interest from running and still need to be paid back, and that much of the world - particularly big cities - is a very messy place, ill-suited for human habitation. Personal bankruptcies will go through the roof and trigger another round of corporate and business bankruptcies. When law firms start going bankrupt, run for the hills, because if the people that sue people can't make a go of it, that says things have gone from sideways to downhill in a very bad way.
(It should be pointed out that the various forms of bankruptcy are usually followed by the word "protection." What bankruptcy protects companies and/or individuals from are creditors, i.e., banks, mortgage companies, credit card companies, auto loan financiers, which, if you've ever been through the process before, might give one pause to consider why any sane person would want to conduct business with any entity from which one might eventually need protection. It's like lambs and lions. Everybody's fine until the lions get hungry.)
Life is going to get more complicated, less fun, more frightening and probably, for a lot of people, significantly shorter and/or more unhealthy. Nothing on the horizon - like 30% of all renters in America not paying their rent in August - seems to indicate that the economy is picking up or will improve soon. Rather, there are signs that despite Wall Street's irrational exuberance, Main Street is dying a slow, painful death and with it the whole of society. Depending largely upon where one lives and maybe works, life in America is either going to get worse, a lot worse, or stay about the same.
In wide, general terms, big cities like Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, Baltimore, Denver, San Francisco, Seattle, Portland, Minneapolis, Atlanta will get a lot worse, smaller cities will only get a little worse, and rural areas may slip through the cracks only marginally affected by the coming debt tsunami and greater depression. Your mileage may vary, depending upon your levels of frustration, resiliency, savings, overall health, age, and future prospects along with other intangible variables.
As Chris Martenson recently offered on dealing with economic catastrophe now or later: "I'd rather fall off the fifth rung of the ladder than the twelfth rung." We're now somewhere between the fourth and seventh rung of Chris' hypothetical ladder. Some have already fallen off. Others are just barely hanging on. Only a brave few will make it to the top rung and manage to hang on through the chaos.
Thank you for slogging through the gloom and doom.
Please enjoy our nomination for COVID-19 song of the year: The Kinks, "Apeman" circa, 1970.
I think I'm sophisticated 'cause I'm living my life
like a good homo sapien
But all around me everybody's multiplying and
they're walking round like flies man
So I'm no better than the animals sitting
in the cages in the zoo
Cause compared to the flowers and the birds and the trees
I am an apeman.
I think I'm so educated and I'm so civilized
'Cause I'm a strict vegetarian
But with the over-population and inflation and starvation
and the crazy politicians
I don't feel safe in this world no more,
I don't want to die in a nuclear war.
I want to sail away to a distant shore and make like an apeman.
I'm an apeman, I'm an ape, apeman, oh I'm an apeman
I'm a King Kong man, I'm a voodoo man, oh I'm an apeman
Cause compared to the sun that sits in the sky,
Compared to the clouds as they roll by,
Compared to the bugs and the spiders and flies I am an apeman.
In man's evolution he's created the city
and the motor traffic rumble.
But give me half a chance and I'd be taking off my clothes
and living in the jungle.
Cause the only time that I feel at ease
Is swinging up and down in the coconut trees.
Oh what a life of luxury to be like an apeman.
I'm an apeman, I'm an ape, apeman, oh I'm an apeman
I'm a King Kong man, I'm a voodoo man, oh I'm an apeman
I look out the window but I can't see the sky,
The air pollution is a-f**king up my eyes,
I want to get out of this city alive and live like an apeman.
Oh come on and love me, be my apeman girl
And we'll be so happy in my apeman world.
I'm an apeman, I'm an ape, apeman, oh I'm an apeman
I'm a King Kong man, I'm a voodoo man, oh I'm an apeman
I'll be your Tarzan, you'll be my Jane,
I'll keep you warm and you'll keep me sane,
We'll sit in the trees and eat bananas all day,
Just like an apeman.
I'm an apeman, I'm an ape, apeman, oh I'm an apeman
I'm a King Kong man, I'm a voodoo man, oh I'm an apeman
I don't feel safe in this world no more,
I don't want to die in a nuclear war.
I want to sail away to a distant shore and make like an apeman.
Songwriter: RAY DAVIES
At the Close, Wednesday, August 12, 2020:
Dow: 27,976.84 +289.93 (+1.05%)
NASDAQ: 11,012.24, +229.42 (+2.13%)
S&P 500: 3,380.35, +46.66 (+1.40%)
NYSE: 12,974.82, +125.45 (+0.98%)
If you answered that they are all retailers, you're on the right track, but only partially correct. They are all former retailers, because the correct answer is that - according to this Yahoo! Finance article - they've all filed for bankruptcy protection within the past six months.
They are not alone, of course. Many other big companies have gone the bankruptcy route, along with scores of smaller firms. About 3,600 companies filed for Chapter 11 in the first half of 2020 nationwide, more than any year since 2012, according to the American Bankruptcy Institute. That number may not sound very large, but it should be couched in the understanding that these are corporations, and many smaller companies, sole proprietorships, LLCs, partnerships and such haven't bothered to go through the legal system
Updating those figures, there were another 642 filings in July, pushing chapter 11 U.S. Commercial Bankruptcy Filings up 52% in the month. Through July, Chapter 11 commercial filings are up 30% over the same period last year, with a total of 4,246 filings.
The same article notes that Chapter 13 (personal) non-commercial filings are actually down 38% so far in 2020, with 99,136 filings, from 159,602 filings in the same period of 2019. Chapter 7 - which is liquidation - non-commercial filings are down 21% in July 2020 with 30,177 new filings, which is down from 38,033 the same period of 2019.
However, total non-commercial filings have increased each of the last four months and are up 11% since April, with 40,072 in July 2020, which is up from 36,151 in April 2020.
What all these numbers are suggesting is that some big retailers took an early exit with more business failures on the way, and that governments, banks and other credit institutions have done a good job of incentivizing bad behavior by allowing people to skip rent and mortgage payments, car payments, credit card payments and student loan payments. Such programs began in March or April, with the onset of the coronavirus and resulting government responses and continue today, in some cases being extended far beyond what was originally considered prudent.
Between the actions by the Federal Reserve, federal and state governments, banks, mortgage, and credit companies, the whoop-butt can of financial ruin that's descended upon American and the world has been kicked down the proverbial road for six months and counting.
But, time is running out and the consequences of playing along with stupid quick-fixes like temporary furloughs, deferrals, forbearance, and other cutesy-sounding programs like "stay safe at home" and "wear a mask" are leading to a major disaster later this year, just in time for - you guessed it - the elections in November.
Not trying to sound too cynical, it's a safe bet that much of what's happened so far in 2020 was thought out well in advance, as a means to inflict the maximum amount of fear, pain, and suffering upon the U.S. electorate. The fright dials will be turned up significantly as summer turns to fall and the elections of 2020 approach. Of course, the big one is the presidency, which has the Trump-Pence team lined up to defend its incumbency against the Biden-Harris squad.
To the assembled mainstream media, this looks like a fair fight. To anybody who hasn't been persuaded that president Trump is a secret Russian agent, a racist, or an otherwise evil person, the 2020 presidential race appears to be close to a slam dunk for the Republicans because they have more money, better candidates (Joe Biden is likely suffering from Alzheimer's or some other form of dementia), a better platform (Dems are running a "We Hate Donald" campaign), and Donald Trump will make mincemeat out of Joe Biden if and when there is a debate.
The elections are a but a sideshow to the national nightmare that is unfolding. Whoever wins locally, statewide, nationally, will have to dal with the same problems. Candidates on either side are barely equipped with enough skills to get them through a day without saying something utterly stupid, so who wins and who loses won't make much of a difference. Election hoopla and assorted finger-pointing, name-calling and mud-slinging will prove to be a short-lived distraction from the real issues.
That said, the global catastrophe that has been slowly proceeding is going to accelerate in the fall and winter. There will be more COVID cases, more deaths, more panic, all of it made up by an out-of-control media and government propagandists. Almost nothing presented so far has been trustworthy or useful and the coming spate of glaring, scary headlines and fake news stories are pretty much assured to be complete fabrications.
As the seasons change, people are going to find out that their unemployment insurance payments do actually run out at some time, deferrals of rent, mortgage, credit card, auto loan, and other debt didn't stop the interest from running and still need to be paid back, and that much of the world - particularly big cities - is a very messy place, ill-suited for human habitation. Personal bankruptcies will go through the roof and trigger another round of corporate and business bankruptcies. When law firms start going bankrupt, run for the hills, because if the people that sue people can't make a go of it, that says things have gone from sideways to downhill in a very bad way.
(It should be pointed out that the various forms of bankruptcy are usually followed by the word "protection." What bankruptcy protects companies and/or individuals from are creditors, i.e., banks, mortgage companies, credit card companies, auto loan financiers, which, if you've ever been through the process before, might give one pause to consider why any sane person would want to conduct business with any entity from which one might eventually need protection. It's like lambs and lions. Everybody's fine until the lions get hungry.)
Life is going to get more complicated, less fun, more frightening and probably, for a lot of people, significantly shorter and/or more unhealthy. Nothing on the horizon - like 30% of all renters in America not paying their rent in August - seems to indicate that the economy is picking up or will improve soon. Rather, there are signs that despite Wall Street's irrational exuberance, Main Street is dying a slow, painful death and with it the whole of society. Depending largely upon where one lives and maybe works, life in America is either going to get worse, a lot worse, or stay about the same.
In wide, general terms, big cities like Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, Baltimore, Denver, San Francisco, Seattle, Portland, Minneapolis, Atlanta will get a lot worse, smaller cities will only get a little worse, and rural areas may slip through the cracks only marginally affected by the coming debt tsunami and greater depression. Your mileage may vary, depending upon your levels of frustration, resiliency, savings, overall health, age, and future prospects along with other intangible variables.
As Chris Martenson recently offered on dealing with economic catastrophe now or later: "I'd rather fall off the fifth rung of the ladder than the twelfth rung." We're now somewhere between the fourth and seventh rung of Chris' hypothetical ladder. Some have already fallen off. Others are just barely hanging on. Only a brave few will make it to the top rung and manage to hang on through the chaos.
Thank you for slogging through the gloom and doom.
Please enjoy our nomination for COVID-19 song of the year: The Kinks, "Apeman" circa, 1970.
I think I'm sophisticated 'cause I'm living my life
like a good homo sapien
But all around me everybody's multiplying and
they're walking round like flies man
So I'm no better than the animals sitting
in the cages in the zoo
Cause compared to the flowers and the birds and the trees
I am an apeman.
I think I'm so educated and I'm so civilized
'Cause I'm a strict vegetarian
But with the over-population and inflation and starvation
and the crazy politicians
I don't feel safe in this world no more,
I don't want to die in a nuclear war.
I want to sail away to a distant shore and make like an apeman.
I'm an apeman, I'm an ape, apeman, oh I'm an apeman
I'm a King Kong man, I'm a voodoo man, oh I'm an apeman
Cause compared to the sun that sits in the sky,
Compared to the clouds as they roll by,
Compared to the bugs and the spiders and flies I am an apeman.
In man's evolution he's created the city
and the motor traffic rumble.
But give me half a chance and I'd be taking off my clothes
and living in the jungle.
Cause the only time that I feel at ease
Is swinging up and down in the coconut trees.
Oh what a life of luxury to be like an apeman.
I'm an apeman, I'm an ape, apeman, oh I'm an apeman
I'm a King Kong man, I'm a voodoo man, oh I'm an apeman
I look out the window but I can't see the sky,
The air pollution is a-f**king up my eyes,
I want to get out of this city alive and live like an apeman.
Oh come on and love me, be my apeman girl
And we'll be so happy in my apeman world.
I'm an apeman, I'm an ape, apeman, oh I'm an apeman
I'm a King Kong man, I'm a voodoo man, oh I'm an apeman
I'll be your Tarzan, you'll be my Jane,
I'll keep you warm and you'll keep me sane,
We'll sit in the trees and eat bananas all day,
Just like an apeman.
I'm an apeman, I'm an ape, apeman, oh I'm an apeman
I'm a King Kong man, I'm a voodoo man, oh I'm an apeman
I don't feel safe in this world no more,
I don't want to die in a nuclear war.
I want to sail away to a distant shore and make like an apeman.
Songwriter: RAY DAVIES
At the Close, Wednesday, August 12, 2020:
Dow: 27,976.84 +289.93 (+1.05%)
NASDAQ: 11,012.24, +229.42 (+2.13%)
S&P 500: 3,380.35, +46.66 (+1.40%)
NYSE: 12,974.82, +125.45 (+0.98%)
Wednesday, August 12, 2020
Gold, Silver Smashed Lower, Stocks, Bonds Follow Down But Nobody Is Selling Gold Or Silver
What happened in the futures and spot markets for gold and silver on Tuesday was nothing short of criminal. It was a sort of gang rape by the collected purveyors of fiat, who cannot stomach excessive gains in other currencies, the precious metals being the most frighteningly destructive to their counterfeiting of paper currencies, paper assets, and paper promises.
With gold wafting past the $2000 mark earlier and silver briefly touching $30 an ounce and up more than 55% over just the past month, the forces controlling the futures market embarked on one of their more ambitious raids, designed to discourage further investment in precious metals.
How successful they were only time will tell, but if past is prelude, their efforts will be short-lived. In an environment in which physical silver and gold are scarce to say the least, how in the world can a 14% one-day decline in silver and a $110 loss on gold be justified? It simply cannot, which is why the paper markets such as the COMEX must be dissolved, to allow true price discovery for actual purchasers and real sellers instead of he fakery of paper short and long contracts that are 99% of the time settled in cash, not physical metal.
To say that the futures market is rigged would be a massive understatement, but Tuesday's raid showed that the central banks are not only afraid of gold, they are absolutely terrified of silver as currency.
The reason is simple. Silver is plentiful and cheap (for now). If silver were ever allowed to be employed widely as currency, the end of fractional reserve banking would commence in a dizzying rush that would leave the lobal economy staring into an abyss of their own making. The math that says this outcome is inevitable notwithstanding, the terrorizing of futures markets - indeed, all markets - by imbecilic people with god-like power to conjure up currency out of thin air will continue for a while longer, but not much longer. It is coming quickly to a horrible conclusion as the Tuesday slaughter on the futures markets reeks of desperation and last-ditch attempts to keep a lid on the price of real money, gold and silver.
There's a certain amount of ironic futility in the effort to suppress precious metals at this juncture. All the central bank proxy shorting did was erase a week's worth of gains and likely encourage even more buying of the dip by savvy gold bugs and silver stackers who have seen this kind of activity all too many times.
By all indications, this was a one-off event, though there may be a follow-up raid, just to reinforce the mad machinations of the people who cannot bear to see the reign of fiat currency come to an end. Silver, while it was smacked down as low as $23.54 overnight, was already back above $26 an ounce earlier and currently hovers in the $25.60-25.90 range. Gold was knocked down to $1866.70, but is already up sharply, at $1931.
Truth be told, nary a single "true believer" in the power of real money so much as thought about unloading any physical gold or silver during this engineered crash in the futures.
Meanwhile, the carnage in precious metals futures spilled over somewhat as a liquidity drain into the financial markets. The Dow, which was sporting a gain of more than 300 points most of the day, ended lower by 104. The NASDAQ was was modestly higher in the early going, but ended lower for the third straight session, the 185-point loss the biggest since July 23.
Bonds were also sent reeling, with yields on longer-dated maturities up sharply. The 10-year note finished the day with a 0.64% yield, a move of six basis points, while the 30-year gained seven basis points to 1.32%.
With markets being bought and sold in tandem, the danger is that falling stocks will not translate into lower yields, with investors heading to gold. A resultant rise in interest rates and loss of control by the Fed would signal disaster. A simultaneous selloff in equities and fixed income would be a crushing blow, the gates of hell flung open wide.
Here's a nominee for quote of the year, by Eugene Fama, Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago, who, in 2013, shared the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences jointly with Robert J. Shiller and Lars Peter Hansen. The renowned economist and creator of the Efficient Market Theory, known as the "Father of Modern Finance," recently did an interview with Market/NZZ:
Market/NZZ: Professor Fama, the efficient market hypothesis has revolutionized the way people invest. What goes through your mind when you look at the wild swings the stock market made this year?
Fama: The market seems pretty good. It held up even though the economy is deep in the bucket. This is a good example of how forward looking the market really is: It’s looking past what we are going through now, and it’s saying that the future doesn’t look that bad.
Market/NZZ: Do you think that’s the correct assumption?
Fama: If I could forecast, I wouldn’t be a professor.
Bada Bing! A rare expression of shameless self-deprecating humor. Kudos to Professor Fama.
At the Close, Tuesday, August 11, 2020:
Dow: 27,686.91, -104.53 (-0.38%)
NASDAQ: 10,782.82, -185.53 (-1.69%)
S&P 500: 3,333.69, -26.78 (-0.80%)
NYSE: 12,849.37, +5.35 (+0.04%)
With gold wafting past the $2000 mark earlier and silver briefly touching $30 an ounce and up more than 55% over just the past month, the forces controlling the futures market embarked on one of their more ambitious raids, designed to discourage further investment in precious metals.
How successful they were only time will tell, but if past is prelude, their efforts will be short-lived. In an environment in which physical silver and gold are scarce to say the least, how in the world can a 14% one-day decline in silver and a $110 loss on gold be justified? It simply cannot, which is why the paper markets such as the COMEX must be dissolved, to allow true price discovery for actual purchasers and real sellers instead of he fakery of paper short and long contracts that are 99% of the time settled in cash, not physical metal.
To say that the futures market is rigged would be a massive understatement, but Tuesday's raid showed that the central banks are not only afraid of gold, they are absolutely terrified of silver as currency.
The reason is simple. Silver is plentiful and cheap (for now). If silver were ever allowed to be employed widely as currency, the end of fractional reserve banking would commence in a dizzying rush that would leave the lobal economy staring into an abyss of their own making. The math that says this outcome is inevitable notwithstanding, the terrorizing of futures markets - indeed, all markets - by imbecilic people with god-like power to conjure up currency out of thin air will continue for a while longer, but not much longer. It is coming quickly to a horrible conclusion as the Tuesday slaughter on the futures markets reeks of desperation and last-ditch attempts to keep a lid on the price of real money, gold and silver.
There's a certain amount of ironic futility in the effort to suppress precious metals at this juncture. All the central bank proxy shorting did was erase a week's worth of gains and likely encourage even more buying of the dip by savvy gold bugs and silver stackers who have seen this kind of activity all too many times.
By all indications, this was a one-off event, though there may be a follow-up raid, just to reinforce the mad machinations of the people who cannot bear to see the reign of fiat currency come to an end. Silver, while it was smacked down as low as $23.54 overnight, was already back above $26 an ounce earlier and currently hovers in the $25.60-25.90 range. Gold was knocked down to $1866.70, but is already up sharply, at $1931.
Truth be told, nary a single "true believer" in the power of real money so much as thought about unloading any physical gold or silver during this engineered crash in the futures.
Meanwhile, the carnage in precious metals futures spilled over somewhat as a liquidity drain into the financial markets. The Dow, which was sporting a gain of more than 300 points most of the day, ended lower by 104. The NASDAQ was was modestly higher in the early going, but ended lower for the third straight session, the 185-point loss the biggest since July 23.
Bonds were also sent reeling, with yields on longer-dated maturities up sharply. The 10-year note finished the day with a 0.64% yield, a move of six basis points, while the 30-year gained seven basis points to 1.32%.
With markets being bought and sold in tandem, the danger is that falling stocks will not translate into lower yields, with investors heading to gold. A resultant rise in interest rates and loss of control by the Fed would signal disaster. A simultaneous selloff in equities and fixed income would be a crushing blow, the gates of hell flung open wide.
Here's a nominee for quote of the year, by Eugene Fama, Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago, who, in 2013, shared the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences jointly with Robert J. Shiller and Lars Peter Hansen. The renowned economist and creator of the Efficient Market Theory, known as the "Father of Modern Finance," recently did an interview with Market/NZZ:
Market/NZZ: Professor Fama, the efficient market hypothesis has revolutionized the way people invest. What goes through your mind when you look at the wild swings the stock market made this year?
Fama: The market seems pretty good. It held up even though the economy is deep in the bucket. This is a good example of how forward looking the market really is: It’s looking past what we are going through now, and it’s saying that the future doesn’t look that bad.
Market/NZZ: Do you think that’s the correct assumption?
Fama: If I could forecast, I wouldn’t be a professor.
Bada Bing! A rare expression of shameless self-deprecating humor. Kudos to Professor Fama.
At the Close, Tuesday, August 11, 2020:
Dow: 27,686.91, -104.53 (-0.38%)
NASDAQ: 10,782.82, -185.53 (-1.69%)
S&P 500: 3,333.69, -26.78 (-0.80%)
NYSE: 12,849.37, +5.35 (+0.04%)
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