WEEKEND WRAP: Dow Down Seven Straight; Yield Curve Dis-Inverts; Gold, Silver Slaughtered; Oil Gains Probably Short-Lived

Drones sighted in New Jersey and an earthquake in the bond market highlighted a week that will largely go unnoticed by most analysts, but may turn out to be one of the more consequential indicators in recent memory.

While drone sightings serve mostly to confuse and disorient the general public, the upheaval in the treasury market - with the long and short ends completely flipping positions - is an actual economic big deal which mainstream financial journalists completely missed, likely because they have little to no clue about how the debt market functions.

Kudos to Paul Franke at Seeking Alpha making note of the change and for forward thinking, ferreting out some constructive investing ideas based on the "dis-inversion."

With November CPI and PPI in the rear-view mirror, the upcoming week will feature the Fed's final monetary policy rate decision of the year on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England on Thursday.

Somewhere in this jumbled miasma, there's a happy holiday package wrapped up with a frilly bow on top. Starting Monday, there are nine days until Christmas and just 11 trading sessions remaining in 2024. Following the Fed policy decision, most minds will be turning to college bowl games, last-minute shopping, and travel plans.

Oh, and drone swarms. Don't forget drone swarms.

Stocks

It was not a good week to be holding equities, especially blue chips. The Dow fell every day this week, with the losing streak hitting seven and nine of the last ten sessions.

The only index to show gain was the NASDAQ, the usual suspect in the over-heated stock environment, powered by AI. Artificial intelligence is making impacts in certain places beyond sex animations, better language usage, and deep fakes. There are ground-breaking developments in search quality, predictive analysis, and general business planning. What AI can do, used properly, results in positive outcomes for the most part. The problem is, like during the dotcom boom, it's vastly over-hyped and thus, certain high-flying stocks are being overvalued.

There is likely to be a correction, at least, in tech stocks, possibly a drop of more than the usual 10-15%, in months ahead. Other sectors are likely to be affected more severely, particularly consumer discretionary and general retail, should a recession appear in early 2025, which appears to be more and more likely.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
11/08/2024	4.70	4.69	4.63	4.53	4.42	4.32
11/15/2024	4.70	4.67	4.60	4.52	4.44	4.34
11/22/2024	4.72	4.67	4.63	4.53	4.46	4.42
11/29/2024	4.76	4.69	4.58	4.52	4.42	4.30
12/06/2024	4.57	4.50	4.42	4.42	4.34	4.19
12/13/2024	4.43	4.43	4.34	4.36	4.32	4.24

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
11/08/2024	4.26	4.18	4.20	4.25	4.30	4.58	4.47
11/15/2024	4.31	4.27	4.30	4.36	4.43	4.70	4.60
11/22/2024	4.37	4.32	4.30	4.35	4.41	4.67	4.60
11/29/2024	4.13	4.10	4.05	4.10	4.18	4.45	4.36
12/06/2024	4.10	4.05	4.03	4.09	4.15	4.42	4.34
12/13/2024	4.25	4.21	4.25	4.33	4.40	4.69	4.61

Yields rising during the week on maturities from two years out to 30 indicate a massive dumping of U.S. treasuries, owing to inflationary indication in November CPI and PPI and the Fed's steadfast commitment to cut the federal funds target rate at next week's FOMC meeting (Tuesday-Wednesday).

Fed policy has become fully disjointed from perceived reality. Never has the Fed cut rates with stocks near all-time highs, unemployment low, the general economy supposedly in good shape with GDP growing. It's almost as if they know something about which the rest of us are being purposely kept in the dark, which, like it or not, is probably the case.

This week's movements in bonds unclenched the long-term inversion, with full spectrum yields (30-days out to 30-years) flipping from -23 to +18, an event that should not go unnoticed by anybody considering investments in stocks or fixed income. The rapid change to a nearly-normalized yield curve has produced a flattening of immense consequence.

The entire curve is ensconced in a 0.40% range, from the low of 4.21% on the three-year note to the high of 4.61% on the 30-year bond and it is all concentrated at the long end with antecedent preference given to 30- and 60-day yields in anticipation of a drop next week from 4.50-4.75% to 4.25-4.50%. It's about as flat as it can be. 30-day bills will likely continue to drop when the Fed actually announces the cut, which is a near-certainty, as is another 25 basis point drop in January.

(As an aside, 20-year bonds should be simply ignored as they are largely illiquid, not favored by the bond-trading community and thus irrelevant in terms of yield structure.)

By Friday, 30-day bills could be yielding as low as 4.30%. By February, 30-day bills could yield 4.15% or lower, completing the Fed's task of normalization of the yield curve. Short-term issuance dropping along with long-dated maturities rising will result in a healthy upward-sloping yield curve, usually considered "normal", though little about the methodology nor the timing offer even a small degree of confidence. The Fed seems to be forcing the issue, driving down the short end to accommodate the incoming Trump administration's austerity protocol, which is likely to be predicated on cuts to government agency budgets and slashing of employment numbers which will lead inexorably to higher unemployment across government sectors, wedging into private payrolls as well.

The overall effects of Trump's process are going to be massively deflationary. The Fed is going to have to keep "pumping the brakes" with rate cuts and may have to slam them down to avoid what should, in all likelihood, become a deep, long recession, one that is long overdue owing to phony government statistics and readings that clouded over the true condition of the U.S. economy, thrashed and plundered by four years of Biden bone-headedness, pilferage, and dishonesty. What the current administration - with ample assistance from congress - has done to the economics of the United States is nothing short of criminal and there will, no doubt, be repercussions, recriminations, and penalties.

35 days until the Biden years get swept unceremoniously into the dustbin of history and counting. God help us.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18

Oil/Gas
The demise of Assad and Syria gave oil a needed boost, to $70.65 as of Friday's New York close, though it was likely for many wrong reasons.

WTI crude oil leapt from the prior Friday close of $67.17, a massive move of $3.48, though it might be more of a one-off than the beginning of any kind of trend.

Oil prices have been under pressure for the past eight months, falling from a peak of $86.91 on April 5 to current levels. Peak to trough, the drop is a bear market signal. This week's run-up is just noise and an opportunity for hedgers to make money on both sides of the trade. There is nothing existent in the financial realm to suggest in the least that oil prices should rise unless the final days of Biden bunker mentality lands the world into thermo-nuclear winter just as climatological winter appear (December 20).

Consequently, gas prices stabilized at three-year low levels during the week with Gasbuddy.com reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump of $3.01 a gallon, just two cents higher than the prior week. With Trump taking over the White House in a little more than a month, it's worth noting that the national average for gas never rose above $3.00 from 2016 through 2020.

California continues as price leader, at $4.28 a gallon, down four cents from the prior week and well below prices prevailing during the summer.

Pennsylvania prices are down another four cents this week, at $3.23, with the Keystone State holding the high price in the Northeast. New York was unmoved, down a penny, at $3.11. Connecticut ($3.02) and Massachusetts ($3.01) were slightly lower, continuing to nip at sub-$3 levels, while Maryland remained below $3.00, at $2.94 per gallon.

There were some upsetting price movements in the Midwest, led by Illinois rising from $3.13 to $3.20 and Ohio and Indiana both popping back over $3.00, both showing $3.04 on Sunday morning.

Fuel prices in Oklahoma ($2.44) continue to be by far the lowest in the nation, holding at current levels for a second straight week. Following are Texas ($2.50), Mississippi and Arkansas ($2.55), and Tennessee at $2.60. Louisiana and Kansas, at $2.63 and $2.64, respectively are just slightly lower than Southeastern neighbors South Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama. Florida ($3.11) remains the outlier, with all other Southeastern states well below $3.00, along with Virginia ($2.89) and North Carolina ($2.85).

Sub-$3.00 gas can now be found in at least 32 U.S. states. The Northeast and West coast are the over-$3.00 holdouts.

Arizona ($3.12) was down another four cents on the week, continuing a long trend. Oregon checked in at $3.44, Nevada at $3.57, and Washington at $3.91, leaving only California above $4.00. Utah ($2.92) and Idaho ($2.95) have both come down steadily and significantly over the last eight months.

Bitcoin

This week: $103,002.00
Last week: $99,645.69
2 weeks ago: $97,184.05
6 months ago: $66,111.79
One year ago: $42,651.91
Five years ago: $7,335.59

Bitcoin remains atop the asset leaderboard, up 133% year-to-date and more than 50% since the November 5 U.S. elections, retracing $103,000.00 this morning.

Fool's gold?

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 86.00; last week: 84.31

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 11/15: $2,567.40
Gold price 11/22: $2,743.20
Gold price 11/29: $2,673.90
Gold price 12/6: $2,654.90
Gold price 12/13: $2,665.90

Silver price 11/15: $30.33
Silver price 11/22: $31.85
Silver price 11/29: $31.10
Silver price 12/6: $31.49
Silver price 12/13: $31.00

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	35.15	50.05	40.15	39.52
1 oz silver bar:	35.50	43.95	40.13	40.26
1 oz gold coin:	2,773.63	2,875.00	2,829.69	2,832.26
1 oz gold bar:	2,749.24	2,868.41	2,776.37	2,769.15

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) priced higher this week, to $40.02, a gain of $1.31 above the December 8 price of $38.71 per troy ounce.

Prices for gold and silver remained steady, even as system riggers managed a complete turnaround, with both metals reaching six-week highs (gold: $2,758.70; silver: $33.28) late Wednesday into early Thursday on the COMEX continuous contract.

Individual purchasers haven't been paying homage to futures prices on the COMEX nor daily fixes at the LBMA. Prices at retail are trending well above both. For instance, Kitco reports spot gold Sunday morning at $2,647.50, while the lowest price for a 1-ounce gold piece on eBay is $2,749.24, a $100 premium to quoted spot.

The same holds true for silver, quoting spot at $30.52 on Kitco, while the median price for a finished silver 1-ounce coin on eBay is $39.52, and $40.26 for a 1-ounce bar with low prices for the same at $35.15 and $35.50.

While eBay maintains a robust market for bullion of all varieties, prices can sometimes exceed expectations, owing to the onerous fees charged by the auction and quick-buy monopolist. However, even at online retailers, a single 1-ounce common round can run anywhere from $32.26 t0 $35.81, depending on payment type (check, crypto, credit card, PayPal) plus shipping and tax (depending on jurisdiction), whereas on eBay, via Money Daily's weekly survey, free shipping is required, putting dealer and eBay prices more or less in agreement.

Naturally, buying single silver coins or bars is the most inefficient way to build a stack. Most serious buyers opt for 10-ounce lots or 10-ounce bars. Any way one looks at the trend, it's obvious that silver and gold are being purchased at an incredibly strong run-rate at retail.

Price-rigging at the COMEX and pric fixes by LBMA for both gold and silver are largely being ignored by individual purchasers who just want the metal at what they consider a reasonable price, even if premia are running 10-15-20% above spot.

Using silver as the base, a 10% premium over spot is $3.05, 20% is $6.10, translating into $33.54 and $36.62, respectively. Nothing unusual about that at all. Dealers, whether online, brick and mortar, or eBay-based, need to make money. Buying at spot -10% and selling at spot +10% has been normative behavior for decades and still, to some extent, is.

Nothing says "collapsing currency" better than advancing prices on gold and silver and a robust and growing market for precious metals. Trading crisp or crinkled U.S. greenbacks for actual physical metal one can hold in one's hand is about the most obvious trade one can imagine and everyday people are awakening to the crumbling condition of currency and markets.

COMEX and the LBMA will likely survive the onslaught of a gold and silver mania, but their relevance will continue to decline. Already, the Shanghai exchange challenging their legitimacy, and soon Moscow, Dubai, and possibly Mumbai will follow with exchanges of their own, making the LBMA price fixes and COMEX futures a fool’s errand as the world moves on from their outdated systems.

Anybody with even a limited interest in gold or silver should consider today's prices more or less a baseline, because, as recent history proves, prices for precious metals are going nowhere but up, reflecting the decreasing purchasing power of currencies issued by central bankers like the dollar, euro, pound, and even the Chinese yuan.

It's likely that China will be a first-mover in backing currency with gold, possibly Russia, since those two countries produce and hold the largest reserves in the world. The U.S. position is a grey area, as there hasn't been an audit of U.S. gold holdings in more than 70 years, the last one, in 1953, barely meeting any standard of credibility.

Those who are waiting on the sidelines for a pullback or believing that prices are already too high best not tarry further. Prices will continue higher, with or without the COMEX, LBMA, and other notorious manipulators.

Price, being relative to currency, is not as important as quality and quantity. Buy well and buy often.

WEEKEND WRAP

Changes are happening at a fairly rapid beat. It's a shame the mainstream press can't recognize the importance of events beyond the latest Taylor Swift concert or Disney production.

The numbers this week are 35 (days until inauguration), 11 (trading days left in 2024), and 9 (days until Christmas).

Don't drone me, bro!

At the Close, Friday, December 13, 2024:
Dow: 43,828.06, -86.06 (-0.20%)
NASDAQ: 19,926.72, +23.88 (+0.12%)
S&P 500: 6,051.09, -0.16 (-0.00%)
NYSE Composite: 19,729.37, -39.72 (-0.20%)

For the Week:
Dow: -814.46 (-1.82%)
NASDAQ: +66.96 (+0.34%)
S&P 500: -39.18 (-0.64%)
NYSE Composite: -378.42 (-1.88%)
Dow Transports: -167.97 (-1.00%)

Stocks Stalling Out Mid-December; Dow Industrials Lower Six Straight Sessions; Gold, Silver Being Taken to Slaughterhouse

Entering the final day of trading for the week, the major averages have been trending lower.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 728 points for the week. It has closed lower every day this week and for six straight sessions and eight of the last nine.

NASDAQ is up a mere 43 points on the week, through Thursday's close while the S&P 500 is down 39 points.

Bitcoin continues to tease at the $100,000 level, having crossed that threshold for the first time on December 5, reaching a high of $103,242.

Gold and silver made large gains on Monday and Wednesday, but have been dropping like rocks since early Thursday morning. Gold peaked at $2,758 on Wednesday, but, nearing 9:00 am ET Friday morning, is trading at $2,683 on the COMEX. Silver reached $33.28 early Thursday morning, but has dropped to a low of $31.07, and continues to fall.

Anybody making sense of this should be considered a genius, an insider, or both.

Even though stocks are down generally, the decline is nothing more than a blip on the overall trajectory of the rally which began more than a year ago. Stocks have magically performed this year. The NASDAQ is up nearly 35%, the S&P has put on gains of 27%, with the Dow lagging, up a mere 16%.

Thursday's trading was the worst of the week for all the majors, but stock futures are offering a glimmer of hope for an opening to the upside. What's worrisome is the high levels that stocks have attained, despite the pullback this week, and an uncertain future, with President-Elect Trump due to be inaugurated in fewer than 40 days.

Military conflicts in the Middle East - now focused on the collapse of Syria - and Ukraine add to investor hesitancy as does the year-ending condition. Adding to or initiating positions in this envirornment almost certainly will have unforeseen consequences, manifesting themselves in the first and second quarters of 2025.

Barring a narrative that investors can easily latch on to, many are taking a wait-and-see attitude, likely the most prudent position at this uncertain juncture. Stocks may very well rally further into the year's end, but a pullback early in 2025 is an even more likely condition.

Should stocks open higher on Friday and fade throughout the session that could signal trouble ahead and spark further declines. There's also the possibility of some of the week's losses being dissolved on Friday, which would amount to more noise than signal.

Putting a wrapper on this market is an uneasy proposition. There's too much uncertainty for stocks to make general advances.

At the Close, Thursday, December 12, 2024:
Dow: 43,914.12, -234.44 (-0.53%)
NASDAQ: 19,902.84, -132.05 (-0.66%)
S&P 500: 6,051.25, -32.94 (-0.54%)
NYSE Composite: 19,769.09, -121.94 (-0.61%)

November PPI comes in Hotter than Expected; Futures Fall, Gold, Silver Ripped Lower after Big Gains Wednesday

Uh-oh.

At 8:30 am ET, the BLS issued the following:

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.4 percent in November. Prices for final demand goods increased 0.7 percent, and the index for final demand services moved up 0.2 percent. Prices for final demand advanced 3.0 percent for the 12 months ended in November.

This was not expected by most of the brainiacs on Wall Street, but those in goods-producing businesses have been seeing input prices rising throughout the year. The 0.7 percent increase puts yesterday's CPI figure into question. Surely producers are passing along their increased costs to consumers.

That's why CPI and PPI, two measures that are never revised and are merely estimates of a very large population (all of America) should be regarded as highly unreliable.

Nevertheless, Wall Street's response was typical. Stock futures sold off just as rapidly as they rose on Wednesday's benign CPI release. The BLS press release offers more granularity, but, suffice it to be said that Wall Street is set up for a massive waterfall event, largely because it throws shade on the Fed's proposed 0.25% cut in the federal funds rate next week, but also because, in the most basic sense, inflation is bad.

Missing Wall Street's estimates (put another way, the experts on Wall Street were way off) isn't catastrophic, but it will likely leave some deep dents.

Just after 9:00 am ET Dow futures were down 32 points, S&P futures were off 16, and NASDAQ futures slid 116.

In an odd, but somewhat expected twist of logic, gold and silver are both down sharply. However, Wednesday saw some of the best gains in the past month. Gold is currently down more than $30, to $2,725.50. Silver is off 35 cents, at $32.62 after reaching a high overnight of $33.31.

If there's inflation at the producer level, it's a safe bet that consumer prices will soon be rising. In such an environment, precious metals usually do exceedingly well.

With 39 days left until Trump's inauguration, it's a crap-shoot in the near term.

At the Close, Wednesday, December 11, 2024:
Dow: 44,148.56, -99.27 (-0.22%)
NASDAQ: 20,034.89, +347.65 (+1.77%)
S&P 500: 6,084.19, +49.28 (+0.82%)
NYSE Composite: 19,891.03, +9.13 (+0.05%)

CPI In-Line, Who Cares?; Federal Government, Merrick Garland Slapped with Nationwide Injunction on CTA Constitutionality by Texas Judge

Wednesday morning, December 11, 2024: Does anybody actually care what the BLS reports as November CPI?

Other than bone-heads on Wall Street, probably not. People care about the price of ground beef, whether the Lions will beat the Bills this Sunday, how much money it coast to fill up their gas tank (a number that's been going steadily down, thankfully), and maybe what their kids are learning in the state-run indoctrination centers otherwise known as public schools.

In any case, October CPI was relatively tame, and nobody batted an eyelash, buying stocks until their eyes bled.

In October, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.2 percent, seasonally adjusted, and rose 2.6 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.3 percent in October (SA); up 3.3 percent over the year (NSA).

So, November CPI was expected to fall in line and maybe drop a bit. The reality:

In November, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.3 percent, seasonally adjusted, and rose 2.7 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.3 percent in November (SA); up 3.3 percent over the year (NSA).

The big takeaway from the 8:30 am ET release was that food at home (bought in grocery stores) was up 0.5% and the shelter component (rent, mortgage, etc.) was up 0.3%. Yep, Americans are still getting squeezed. It cost more to maintain a home and to eat. Lovely.

So, the monthly rate and annual rate was up 0.1% and we're supposed to care? Wash, rinse, repeat. Nobody is going to base buying or selling stocks, budgeting for Christmas or turning the thermostat up or down based on this number, but, it gives the simpletons on CNBC, Bloomberg, and FoxBusiness something to talk about and maybe the Fed will notice, but they probably won't change their minds about cutting the federal funds target rate another 0.25% a week from today.

There are more important items that the mainstream media doesn't even mention. One of them is the fate of the Corporate Transparency Act (CTA) and its implementing regulations. In case you haven't heard of this law, passed as part of the NDAA in 2021, it requires small businesses with fewer than 20 employees and a beneficial owner's interest (BOI) of more than 25% of the company to register with FinCEN (the Treasury Department's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network).

It's estimated that 32 million businesses fall into this denial of privacy trap set by congress. Most businesses were supposed to have registered between January 1 and December 31 of this year. Many small businesses don't even know the law exists, though quite a few were convinced by their lawyers and/or accountants that registration was a necessity because not doing so might open them up to fines of $500 a day and possibly up to two years in prison.

Well, not withstanding that the law was unnecessary and a burden on people running small businesses across the great expanse of America - like barber shops, restaurants, retail stores, online merchants, etc. - a lot of people sheepishly caved to yet another over-the-top demand from los federales and fell into compliance, giving up their right of privacy to the overbearing, out-of-control government.

That was all well and good until Judge Amos L. Mazzant III in the Eastern District of Texas U.S. Circuit Court granted a preliminary injunction, halting the process in its tracks, on grounds that the plaintiffs in the case of TEXAS TOP COP SHOP, INC., ET AL., v. MERRICK GARLAND, ATTORNEY GENERAL OF THE UNITED STATES, ET AL., had satisfied the court with their arguments enough to enjoin the Government from enforcing the Corporate Transparency Act and its Implementing Regulations.

Essentially, what the judge granted stops the CTA in its tracks. Businesses are no longer compelled to register with FinCEN. The government even went so far as to issue a statement on its website, to wit:

In light of a recent federal court order, reporting companies are not currently required to file beneficial ownership information with FinCEN and are not subject to liability if they fail to do so while the order remains in force. However, reporting companies may continue to voluntarily submit beneficial ownership information reports.

How nice of them, allowing companies to voluntarily submit to deprivation of privacy. The government is appealing the ruling and there’s other litigation ongoing, but, considering the degree of competence (none) in Merrick Garland's DoJ, the chances that the government will prevail appear slight.

Attorneys Kyle Fonjemie and Anthony J. Zeoli on Hinshaw Law authored a concise summary of the ruling and its implications.

Effectively, should the law be eventually ruled unconstitutional (which it almost surely is), the millions of business owners who submitted their information to the department of government overreach should have those records expunged.

There are even bills pending in both the House and Senate which seek to repeal the CTA. Backed by the NFIB, which was a party to the Texas lawsuit, H.R.8147 - Repealing Big Brother Overreach Act would accomplish that task and send a message to congress that the American public and individual states are not their playthings.

The House bill has 92 co-sponsors. Senate bill S.4297 is identical to the House bill.

There's more to this unfolding saga which will be addressed in this blog in Sunday's WEEKEND WRAP.

Getting back to the CPI and the loonies that slavishly follow this stuff, stock futures went up like 4th of July fireworks on the announcement because they were "in line" with forecasts. Yeah, only Wall Street cares about this stuff. Meanwhile, eggs, steaks, milk, and rent continue to become out of reach for the average household.

Buy more stocks. The Fed's got this.

At the Close, Tuesday, December 10, 2024:
Dow: 44,247.83, -154.10 (-0.35%)
NASDAQ: 19,687.24, -49.45 (-0.25%)
S&P 500: 6,034.91, -17.94 (-0.30%)
NYSE Composite: 19,881.90, -124.36 (-0.62%)

Stocks Sent Sideways; In Laughable Move to Suppress Gold's Price, CME to Begin Offering 1-ounce Gold Futures Contacts In January

There was nothing unusual about Monday's declines on the major indices, except maybe that the Dow lost ground for the fifth time in the last six sessions and that Wednesday of last week - the only day the Dow finished on the upside - produced an all-time high.

That sequence may indicate to some that Wednesday's record was an outlier, to others, signs of a near-term top, and to some, nothing in particular. It's safe to say that with stocks in a supreme bubble, nobody really has a handle on where it's all headed, especially those who think they know, the experts at Goldman Sachs or Merrill Lynch, or even your favorite stock picker.

Expectations for a rosy future in stocks can almost always be found somewhere on Wall Street. The latest prognostications for the year 2025 are hovering around S&P at 7000, implying a gain of around 15% for the coming year, a number that would be a disappointment when compared to this year's gain of 27% on the S&P.

It may be a little too early to say so, but stocks are likely to bounce around quite a bit before heading to the peaks in 2025. There's ample room for a sizable pullback, likely in the first and second quarter, setting up a scenario for a late run to year-end targets. Timing may be everything in the coming six to 18 months of investing.

Longer term, who knows? Stocks can go much higher if bubble economics prevails, but odds are that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates to a point at which inflation just can't be held back any longer. On that point - rate cuts - the Fed's current pathology seems to fly in the face of the market predictors' paradise scenario, the one in which stocks fly to the moon and everybody retires rich.

We'd all love that to be the case, but the realists probably know better.

Gold's move on Monday and again this morning is telling a different tale, approaching $2,700 with gusto and even getting to it just moments ago on the COMEX. Oddly enough, with gold apparently on more people's minds than just central bankers, the CME has announced the launch of a 1-ounce gold futures contract on January 13, 2025, pending regulatory approval, i.e., SEC's valued rubber stamp.

Jesse Columbo of MoneyMetals.com analyzed some of the issues such a contract offering would entail, the most pronounced being that the contract calls for cash settlement. Nobody exercising such a contract would be able to redeem it for physical metal. As such, it's just another diversion away from the ultimate hedge against everything in the Federal Reserve wonderland of fiat currencies, physical possession of gold bullion.

Thus, offering a gold futures contract on 1-ounce of gold that is not redeemable in gold is just more speculative misdirection from the likes of CME, COMEX, LBMA, and their friends at the Federal Reserve, none of whom want to see people buying and - perish forbid - hoarding gold when their chief function in the world of finance is to keep the mighty U.S. dollar as the pre-eminent store of value.

It's actually laughable. Only retards with limited cash on hand, or other retards with lots of money seeking to distort the true value of an ounce of gold (brokers, dealers, other proxies for the Fed) would bother with these contracts for "paper gold."

Anybody who wants to own an ounce of gold can just go to one of the many online dealers, or eBay, or their local coin shop and buy a coin, a round, a bar of gold. It's that simple.

The only conclusion as to why the CME would expand its offerings of gold futures in smaller denominations would be to lure in speculators and riggers who don't actually want to own gold at lower margins. When gold goes to $3,000, or $5,000 or $10,000, will the CME then begin offering 1/4-oz contracts, 1/10th-oz contracts?

Bet on it.

If you're the type of person who doesn't see the value of holding assets with no counter-party risk - gold, silver, other tangible assets - then continue dabbling in stocks, options, derivatives, and other time-and-money wasters.

But, if you don't trust the people on Wall Street, the Fed, the government, and maybe your neighbors who have three cars, a 401k, and dine out three times a week, then maybe physical possession of gold and silver is for you.

Anybody with less than three eyes can see, in a world built on debt, fiat currencies and fractional reserve banking, where gold and silver prices are headed.

Ultimately, it's wealth protection. In other words, "good as gold."

At the Close, Monday, December 9, 2024:
Dow: 44,401.93, -240.59 (-0.54%)
NASDAQ: 19,736.69, -123.08 (-0.62%)
S&P 500: 6,052.85, -37.42 (-0.61%)
NYSE Composite: 20,006.26, -101.53 (-0.50%)