WEEKEND WRAP: DC Panic; Wall Street Apathy; Gold-Backed Currencies Within 1-3 Years; Slowing Ecnomy; Higher Unemployment

Panic is trending in Washington D.C.

Anybody tired of #WINNING yet?

There are unconfirmed rumors of a massive spike in the number of houses up fr sale in and around the Washington D.C. metro area.

Checking with Zillow in a broad search of the area (Beltway and slightly beyond), there were:

• 6700 homes listed for 6 months
• 5753 homes listed for 90 days
• 2922 homes listed for 30 days
• 1709 homes listed for 14 days
• 932 homes listed for 7 days

Doesn't seem to exactly point to an exodus. It will probably be insightful to watch rents and home sale prices over the next six months, however, as Trump and Musk take an axe to the federal workforce. With all the layoffs, firings, and upcoming prosecutions, it's a good bet that there's going to be more than enough housing for the few that remain. Prices should absolutely crumble unless BlackRock goes in and buys them all (which is a possibility).

After four weeks of the Trump presidency, politicians are scrambling to delete incriminating evidence from hard drives, cell phones, bank records, you name it. An estimate of how many of the current 535 members of congress (100 senators, 435 members of the House) have taken bribes, kickbacks, or dirty money of some kind would have to be in the 90 percentile range. Estimating how many will resign and/or be caught, be tried, be convicted is probably in the high teens to low 20s. It's fairly obvious U.S. elected officials and higher-ups in government employ have been fleecing the taxpayers for years, even decades. Finally, there may be some exposure to just how deep the corruption has dug into the roots of politics in D.C.

It's pretty deep and Americans want the crooks exposed. More to come, as they say.

Meanwhile, Wall Street, responsible for at least some of the corruption via insider tips, favors, and probably payments to politicians, continues to stroll along as if nothing has changed. That's despite the revelations last week that inflation was not under control with the CPI and PPI both at higher levels than previous months and retail sales in January crashing (-0.9%).

Stocks

Stocks had a good week, with all the major indices posting gains, led by the NASDAQ (+2.58%), which, along with the S&P, ended a two-week-long slide. The Dow Jones Transportation Average was the best of the bunch with a gain of 2.84% for the week.

The week past saw mixed results from companies reporting, but most were boosted higher despite results that were largely reflective of a slowing economy.

The coming week will be shortened, with markets shuttered Monday (Presidents' Day). The earnings calendar gets a little lighter.

Monday: (markets closed) Transocean (RIG), Huntsman (HUN)

Tuesday: (before open) Baidu (BIDU), Medtronic (MDT), Entergy (ETR); (after close) Celanese (CE), Devon Energy (DVN), Toll Brothers (TOL)

Wednesday: (before open) Wix (WIX), Fiverr (FVRR), Analog Devices (ADI), Etsy (ETSY), Garmin (GRMN); (after close) Bausch Health (BHC), Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), Equinox Gold (EQX), Carvana (CVNA)

Thursday: (before open) Walmart (WMT), Wayfair (W), Birkenstock (BIRK), Shake Shack (SHAK); (after close) Texas Roadhouse (TXRH), Newmont Mining (NEM), Mercado Libre (MELI), Rivian (RIVN)

Friday: (before open) US Cellular (USM), Atmus (ATMU), Uniti (UNIT).

Data drops are slim, the most important - and becoming less so every day - will be the Fed minutes from the January FOMC meeting. Nothing spectacular or market moving in that Wednesday afternoon (usually 2:00 pm ET) release.


Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
01/10/2025	4.42	4.35	4.36	4.33	4.27	4.25
01/17/2025	4.43	4.35	4.34	4.32	4.28	4.21
01/24/2025	4.45	4.36	4.35	4.32	4.25	4.17
01/31/2025	4.37	4.37	4.31	4.33	4.28	4.17
02/07/2025	4.37	4.38	4.35	4.37	4.30	4.25
02/14/2025	4.37	4.38	4.34	4.35	4.32	4.23

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
01/10/2025	4.40	4.46	4.59	4.70	4.77	5.04	4.96
01/17/2025	4.27	4.33	4.42	4.52	4.61	4.91	4.84
01/24/2025	4.27	4.33	4.43	4.53	4.63	4.91	4.85
01/31/2025	4.22	4.27	4.36	4.47	4.58	4.88	4.83
02/07/2025	4.29	4.31	4.34	4.42	4.49	4.75	4.69
02/14/2025	4.26	4.26	4.33	4.41	4.47	4.75	4.69

Nothing says flat like the difference between the lowest rate (4.23%, 1-year note) and the highest (4.69%, 30-year bond) of 0.46%. The 20-year (4.75%) is an anomaly and left aside of calculations.

The Federal Reserve is being defanged by the Trump administration, gradually, but the effort will pick up momentum as soon as other issues are deemed under control. Those others include downsizing the government, a huge lift in foreign affairs (Middle East, Ukraine chief among them), and the domestic economy. Taking a wrecking ball to the Federal Reserve is the best part of the journey and purposely reserved for the end.

While the Fed will attempt to assert its authority from time to time via sporadic speeches and the usual rhetoric from their 10 annual FOMC soirees, it was clear from the last FOMC meeting at the end of January that conditions have changed. The Fed stood down, keeping the federal funds target rate at 4.25-4.50% and Chairman Powell was as mealy-mouthed and non-committal as he could be, barring an outright gag order, at his press conference.

Monetary policy is being taken out of the Fed's hands and will ultimately become a function of the Treasury. Currently, the treasury, secondary bond markets, and forex are providing all the monetary indicators needed without input from the Federal Reserve. The people doing their diligence at the Mariner Eccles building might as well start clearing their desks, packing their bags and sharpening up their resumes. Their days are numbered.

The American people clearly demand an honest government and Trump is delivering on that promise. They will ultimately demand honest money, but that is an issue for another day, though, considering the speed at which Trump is operating, that day could come sooner than many wish to consider. The U.S. dollar, along with Russia's rouble, China's yuan, and India's rupee will have gold backing, either in full or in fraction, either for international trade or domestic transactions, at some time within the next one to three years. It only makes sense to have honest money the global standard and the countries with the largest gold holdings will dominate how currencies adjust to the emerging new standards.

Central banks, being private, will protest vigorously, but their lamentations will fall on deaf ears. The global community has had its fill of the World Bank, IMF, and fiat currencies backed by nothing but faith in central banks, not governments. Once governments begin to wrest control of their currencies back from the debt pushers, there will be no stopping their momentum. The process has begun and the leaders of the "Big Four" will coordinate their agendas.

Central banks will become irrelevant and soon dissolve. Government treasuries issuing the currency of their respective nations will become the norm. This is the biggest story of the century, unfolding before our very eyes though most people are blind to it.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32


Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil prices continue to fall, from $77.37 at the New York close on January 17, to $74.60 on January 24, to $73.81 on January 31, to $71.06 on February 7, and finally to $70.56 at the New York close this Friday. Four consecutive weeks of falling prices by a cumulative 8.80% should have convinced enough people that the price of oil is not going back up any time soon, regardless of cold winter heating days or summer driving season.

Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump up another four cents from last week, at $3.15 a gallon Sunday morning.

California remains top of the heap, up sharply from last week, at $4.78, from $4.56 last week and $4.43 a gallon two weeks ago.

Pennsylvania was up marginally at $3.37, the Keystone State remaining the price leader in the Northeast. New York is a distant second or third, at $3.15. Connecticut ($3.07) was sstable along with Massachusetts ($3.00). Maryland dropped back to third in the Northeast ($3.10).

Illinois was up three cents, to $3.25. Ohio ($3.02) and Indiana ($2.99) were static.

Mississippi ($2.65) held at the lowest, just slightly better than Oklahoma ($2.66) this week. Following are Texas ($2.68) and Louisiana ($2.68). Tennessee ($2.77), Alabama ($2.78), and South Carolina ($2.79) are next, followed by Kentucky ($2.82), Kansas and Arkansas (both, $2.83), and Missouri ($2.87). Georgia bounced higher, ($3.00). Florida fell 14 cents, to $3.01.

Sub-$3.00 gas can now be found in fewer states than in prior weeks. At least 21 U.S. states have prices under $3.00, down from more than 24 last week and 28 a few weeks ago.

Arizona ($3.42) is up another 16 cents from last week. Oregon showed prices higher by a dime, at $3.73. Nevada was up 14 cents, at $3.83. Washington was up 12 cents to $4.12, joining California in the small club of mainland states at $4.00 or higher. Utah ($3.03) was stable, but Idaho ($3.20) was higher by three cents.


Bitcoin

This week: $97,022.45
Last week: $96,477.31
2 weeks ago: $98,218.74
6 months ago: $59,131.83
One year ago: $51,685.54
Five years ago: $9,667.06

Bitcoin has not been over $100,00 since February 4. Hodlers are becoming impatient, former "diamond hands" turning to granite, eventually to sand as they see profits slip through their fingers. The price rise from $50,000 $60,000 to above $100,000 took place in September, October, and November of last year and has stalled out, with the all-time high now a look back to December 17.

There exists a growing degree of dissatisfaction with the Trump administration in moving bitcoin and crypto in general to a higher plain and some speculation that the President was pandering for votes in his pro-crypto messaging during the election cycle.

Rational people who largely agree that bitcoin is nothing more than vaporware and a slush fund for criminals and Wall Street firms like BlackRock (same thing) have watched the fluctuations in price and sentiment and are seeing chart patterns eerily similar to those in 2021, which plateaued at higher levels before falling sharply, decimating both price and sentiment.

In the end, crypto speculators will get what's coming to them in a cascade of rapid declines, just like previous iterations.


Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 88.63; last week: 89.66

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 1/19: $2,740.00
Gold price 1/26: $2,777.40
Gold price 2/2: $2,809.30
Gold price 2/9: $2,886.10
Gold price 2/16: $2,893.70

Silver price 1/19: $31.05
Silver price 1/26: $31.04
Silver price 2/2: $32.24
Silver price 2/9: $32.19
Silver price 2/16: $32.65

Gold peaked somewhere around $2,966 on the COMEX late Monday, was ripped lower, bounced back Thursday into Friday, then was mercilessly punched down all day Friday into the weekend. Silver took a similar roundtrip, though the high was on Friday, the price of $34.23 the best since late October.

It's the same tired story. Every time PMs apear ready to break out - and this is especially true for silver - the COMEX wheel grinds it down to more pedestrian levels. Sooner or later this price manipulation that has become so tortured and obvious will end. Until that time, there's little to do other than wait or buy more.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	38.49	44.95	39.96	39.00
1 oz silver bar:	35.22	46.22	41.14	41.48
1 oz gold coin:	2,930.59	3,071.97	3,019.45	3,024.07
1 oz gold bar: 2,996.31	3,050.50	3,020.39	3,019.36

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) ended three weeks of declines with a rise to $40.40, a gain of 97 cents from the February 9 price of $39.43 per troy ounce.


WEEKEND WRAP

Things in Washington D.C. and across America are just beginning to get interesting. It's going to take a while for Wall Street to begin reflecting the rapid-fire changes to the economic landscape. Judging by the most important metrics, stocks should be nearing a top, and with earnings season for the first quarter winding down, more focus will be on events in D.C. that are reshaping the government.

The massive movement of employees off the federal workforce roles will result in an unemployment spike. There's little doubt about that, but unemployment is always a lagging indicator. Impact to the nation's "wealth effect" will take considerably longer to materialize and it's possible that Trump's policies of mass firings, resignations, and furloughs, combined with potentially millions of deportations, and threats of tariffs rather than real ones, will likely stave off further inflationary tendencies.

Companies may not experience much pricing power with consumers and credit stretched to extremes. An end to "Project Ukraine" and peace with Russia may be emboldened by lifting of sanctions, especially with regard to energy. With oil prices are already under pressure, removal of sanctions on Russian oil could produce a significant glut worldwide, and, set against an environment of slack to declining demand, is outright dis-inflationary, possibly deflationary.

It's difficult to believe stocks can continue to rise in such an environment. Once housing prices begin to readjust back toward mean pricing, stocks and other financial assets should follow.

For now, it's a guessing game.

Happy Presidents' Day.

At the Close, Friday, February 14, 2025:
Dow: 44,546.08, -165.35 (-0.37%)
NASDAQ: 20,026.77, +81.13 (+0.41%)
S&P 500: 6,114.63, -0.44 (-0.01%)
NYSE Composite: 20,130.48, -50.81 (-0.25%)

For the Week:
Dow: +242.68 (+0.55%)
NASDAQ: +503.37 (+2.58%)
S&P 500: +88.64 (+1.47%)
NYSE Composite: +91.00 (+0.45%)
Dow Transports: +459.34 (+2.84%)

Editor's Note: X has temporarily suspended this account from posting for one week. Sorry.

Good Money vs. Bad Money, Trump and the Constitution; Silver Breaking Out; Draft Kings Losing Money a Winning Be

In the likeliest scenario, the Fed won't raise or lower interest rates significantly (remember: to quell inflation in the 1970s and early 1980s, Fed Chairman Paul Volker raised the effective federal funds rate all the way to 19%) over the next few years. There will be shrieking and hollering aplenty, but the federal funds target rate will range between 3.50 and 5.25%.

Having little to no effect on inflation, the Federal Reserve will be seen as incompetent and President Trump will move to abolish it. That would require action by congress, which could become a reality after the midterms of 2026. In the meantime, Trump may issue some executive order or orders and direct the Treasury to issue U.S. currency redeemable in gold and/or silver.

The price of gold in such an instance could be as high as $20,000 per ounce, some economists target it even higher. No matter what, it's going to be higher than it is currently. There seems to be no argument about that.

Timing and price levels are the two main points of argument at this late stage. There's also the possibility that Trump does nothing about the Fed or the dollar vis-a-vis the constitution, which pegs a U.S. dollar as equal to 371.25 grains of silver, meaning that a U.S. dollar is defined as containing 0.7734375 troy ounces of silver.

Well, if silver is around its current level of $32 an ounce, a constitutional dollar would be worth $24.75 in Federal Reserve Notes, making it, by far, the preferred currency. Some people, such as Alasdair Macleod and James Turk, both of goldmoney.com, suggest that the two currencies could circulate simultaneously, until, one or the other is eliminated.

Gresham's Law states that "bad money drives out good" and is often misunderstood. The principal takeaway is that people will spend the bad money and hoard the good money. Thus, it's entirely possible that the U.S. dollar, represented by the Fed's Federal Reserve Notes, will continue to be the currency of choice, while savers put away the constitutional money until such a time that it becomes officially the U.S. currency. Those constitutional dollars, redeemable in part or in whole for gold and/or silver, may be used as a vehicle for settling international trade balances.

That there could be two competing currencies is entirely plausible. As is currently the case, there already exists a school of thought that considers gold and silver currency, and further, the only true form of "money." So, gold, silver, and Federal Reserve Notes are already circulating through the U.S. economy, along with bitcoin and thousands of other alt-coins in the cryptoverse. It wouldn't be surprising to witness further decimation in the value of the Fed's currency by competition, which is ultimately a good thing.

Getting to market conditions this Friday morning, stock futures are tumbling in the pre-market, though not to any egregious level. Dow futures are down $122, and S&P futures off about $10 at 8:00 am ET.

It wouldn't be a shock if stocks sold off to end the week. It's been a persistent pattern. The Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P each sold off the past three Fridays, January 24, 31, and February 7. Maybe it's just herd behavior or a function of stock option expiration. Gone are the days of options expiry on the thrid Friday of each month. The current market structure accommodates not only options expiring on every Friday, but also every day, as in 0DTE (Zero Days to Expiration) options. In more ways than anyone dares to admit, derivatives (options, futures, swaps, repos, etc.) drive the actual market.

Gold came close to making another all-time high this morning on the COMEX. The continuous contract topped out at $2,963.20, precisely three dollar short of the high made Monday night. Silver made a big move in the quiet hours, hitting $34.16 earlier this morning. That's a three-month high, but anybody with skin in the game thinks $35 is a mortal lock, probably within weeks, and $40 will follow as day follow night. It would be stunning if silver doesn't exceed $40 an ounce this year. That would be about a 36% gain off the December 31, 2024 price of $29.24, pretty much par for the course these days.

It's noted with some irony that Draft Kings (DKNG) reported fourth quarter and full year results after the bell Thursday, missing its earnings target of -0.15 cents by losing 0.28, or, almost $138 million. The irony is that DraftKings purports to make money off gamblers, but hasn't made a single dime. In fact, the company has accumulated losses of $6,441,228,000. That's SIX BILLION, or, in other words, there needs to be a lot more losers using their platform. "Nice business model ya got there. Shame if anything would happen to it." Shares are up five percent in the pre-market. Go figure.

With the opening bell to close out the week in less than an hour, unless the bottom falls out today, the majors are looking at a winner for the week. Through Thursday's close, the Dow is up 408 points, the NASDAQ ahead by 422, and the S&P is up - after making a record close Thursday - 89 points.

At the Close, Thursday, February 13, 2025:
Dow: 44,711.43, +342.87 (+0.77%)
NASDAQ: 19,945.64, +295.69 (+1.50%)
S&P 500: 6,115.07, +63.10 (+1.04%)
NYSE Composite: 20,181.29, +118.98 (+0.59%)

PPI Comes in Red Hot at +3.5% Annualized; Wall Street Says "Buy All the Things"' Because Inflation in Clown World

Yesterday, the BLS released January CPI, which showed an increase of 0.5% and a year-over-year increase of three percent. Simply put, if CPI continues to rise at 0.5% monthly, the annual increase will not be three percent at the end of 2025, but six percent, yet the Federal Reserve insists that it finished its work on taming inflation well over a year ago and actually cut interest rates by a full percent from September through December of last year.

If it wasn't so horrible, the Fed's political miscalculation to try to keep one Donald J. Trump out of the white House by lowering the federal funds target rate by half a percent in September (just in time for the election of Kamala the Hutt), it would be laughable. Given that prices are rising instead of falling, nobody's laughing and nobody is listening to a word the Fed has to say, for a multitude of good reasons: they're wrong, they work in the interest of their shareholders (major commercial banks) instead of the American public, they have destroyed the value of the U.S. currency by 98% since inception in 1913, and, they're about to be extinguished by the man they tried so hard to defeat. Trump is hell-bent on restoring constitutional money to the United States. There is no need for the Federal Reserve (a private bank) if the Treasury issues US$.

What occurred yesterday on the major exchanges was familiar. Wall Street rejected the assumption that consumer prices actually matter, and, after futures collapsed on the CPI reading, when the cash market opened an hour later at what turned out to be the lows of the day on the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500, the reaction was adverse, buying the dip, as if nothing mattered other than higher stock prices. The NASDAQ, particularly the most egregious performer of stock market magic, was down more than 220 points at the open yet finished the session with a gain of six points. Woo-hoo!

The Dow and S&P ended with losses, but they were both well above the opening lows.

So, were all those selling in the futures market just plain wrong, stupid, ignorant of the reality that stocks must go up all the time, or, are markets just wired to reflect the never-ending con game to buy anything the Wall Street horde is pushing? AI? Dotcom? Crypto? Bio-tech?

Maybe its something different. Maybe stocks will continue to rise because of inflation. In Weimar Germany and in Zimbabwe, during their bouts of hyperinflation, stocks soared. However, the reality of the situation exposed the lie: 200, 300, 500% gains in the stock market didn't stand a candle to inflation running at 600, 800, or more than 1000 percent. The price of their investments may have looked fine on paper, but their value was being decimated, and high stock prices today may be just a symptom of the underlying inflation disease.

Today, the BLS is treating the financial community to their estimate of Producer Price Inflation (PPI), which has been a mixed bag the past six months, but has inched higher the past two.

Here is the BLS headline statement:

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.4 percent in January, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.5 percent in December 2024 and 0.2 percent in November. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 3.5 percent for the 12 months ended January 2025.

Leading the broad-based January advance in the index for final demand, prices for final demand services rose 0.3 percent. The index for final demand goods moved up 0.6 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.3 percent in January after moving up 0.4 percent in December. For the 12 months ended in January, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 3.4 percent.

So, the unadjusted 3.5% annual inflation at the producer wellhead and 3.4% annual core producer inflation is good, no? NO. It's not good. Producer prices largely get passed onto consumers, so expect the CPI to continue going higher while the genii at the Fed do nothing.

Drilling down a bit to the BLS charts, PPI change in final demand from 12 months ago (unadjusted) looks like this:

August: +2.1%; September: +2.1%; October: +2.7%; November: +2.9%; December: +3.5%; January: +3.5%.

Now, all you math majors: is +3.5% inflation better than +2.1% inflation? Anybody notice a pattern developing?

These figures are all higher than what was expected, yet, upon the release, stock futures jumped higher, because, well, if the currency buys less, then stocks must be priced higher.

Makes perfect sense, in Clown World. (OK, OK, wait. Stock futures were down hard yesterday and stocks rallied, so today, futures are up, so stocks will fall? Mmmm, maybe not, since logic is not allowed in Clown World.)

At the Close, Thursday, February 13, 2025:
Dow: 44,368.56, -225.09 (-0.50%)
NASDAQ: 19,649.95, +6.10 (+0.03%)
S&P 500: 6,051.97, -16.53 (-0.27%)
NYSE Composite: 20,062.31, -105.89 (-0.53%)

$1,090 Silver and Why CPI Won't Matter Very Much Longer; Inflation is Back, Baby; CPI up 0.5% in January, 3.0% Annualized

Wall Street and the financial press is going to continue to spew their nonsense about investing in stocks, inflation fears, interest rates and the Fed right up until the biggest story of the century slaps them - and millions of passive investors - in the face.

President Trump, like him or not, is on a mission to create America's "Golden Age." That is the term he used in his inaugural speech and only those with a narrow view of the world or none at all will deny his lofty goal.

By his invocation of the term "golden age", Trump envisions the United States, and, by extension, the world, to exist in a state of "primordial peace, harmony, stability, and prosperity." (Wikipedia)

Being ultimately a pragmatist, ushering in the "Golden Age" will require massive structural changes to the American political and financial systems, which is why Elon Musk, via DOGE, is largely dismantling the ramparts of government waste, fraud, and abuse, piece by piece, excess by excess, though the larger object of structural reform remains embedded in the financial system and the U.S. constitution.

Once Trump, Musk, and other appointees and allies root out the corrupt politicians that have fed at the public trough for decades and decimated the agencies and departments responsible for funneling money to House members and Senators (and probably a good number of mayors and governors), his troops will take aim on the ultimate prize: the Federal Reserve and their counterfeiting operation that has deprived America of its rightful prosperity.

Since 1913, when the Federal Reserve System was authorized by Congress, America has been transformed from a peaceful, prosperous nation to one of warfare and welfare, a system that is dying and is about to end.

Backing up this thesis is the recent inflow of gold to the United States from England and elsewhere, notably even India and China. Central banks, especially those in China, Russia, and India, have been buying and hoarding gold for the better part of the last 15 years and other central banks have taken heed and done likewise. Central bank purchases of gold have been at record levels the past three years (2022-24) and are likely to exceed those levels in 2025, with the unusual twist being that the United States will likely be the largest buyer, having to play catch up after years of denial and apathy.

In August, 2017, when Trunp's first Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, was dispatched to Fort Knox to have a look at the gold stored there, it was no accident or mere photo op. Trump sent Mnuchin specifically to see that the gold was still there, and, according to the Secretary, it was. It was the first visit to the facility by a Treasury Secretary since 1948.

The current and ongoing movement of tons of gold heading to American shores, while being largely dismissed or ignored by the vain and willfully blind financial press, is just the beginning of the biggest story of the century.

Gold hawks, such as James Turk, founder of goldmoney.com, recently opined on King World News that President Trump might be mulling (or planning for) the prospect of revoking President Nixon’s August 15, 1971, Executive Order to “suspend temporarily” the dollar’s link to gold. If true, and Trump puts the U.S. back on a gold standard, the changes will be monumental and highly beneficial to holder of gold and silver.

Turk goes further, expressing his belief that gold will be revalued at $10,900 per ounce, and the gold:silver ratio that for so long has been a product of financial repression by the countries that favor fiat currencies (all of them), but especially England, the European Union, the United States, Japan, and Switzerland via the COMEX, LBMA, Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF), World Bank, and the IMF, would be declared at 10:1.

If Turk's prognostication turns out ot be true, long-suffering holders of gold and, by far, silver, stand to make enormous gains in wealth. A gold price of $10,900 and a gold:silver ratio of 10-1 implies a silver price of $1,090 per ounce.

For those who think it's not possible, consider that gold was $270 an ounce in 1999, and today is approaching $3,000, a more than tenfold increase. A revaluation to $10,900 would be little more than a tripling.

Head of research at goldmoney.com, Alasdair Macleod, on King World News chimes in with more detail about gold flows and the impact to global economics.

Naturally, there will be skeptics, those who favor continuation of the Federal Reserve's slave system of debt creation from thin air and fractional reserve banking and the government's $36 trillion black hole. All of Washington D.C. and Wall Street are tethered to the fraudulent currency system and recent protests from lawmakers to the dismantling of their favorite slush fund entities like USAid offer proof not only is the political system corrupt to the core, but that it is fed by an equally corrupt financial apparatus.

No matter which way the winds blow, there are choices to be made. Either continue in debt service to the Federal Reserve via income tax, withholding, and interest rate manipulation, or buy gold and/or silver, or both, and wait.

With all of that as background, at 8:30 am ET, the BLS released January CPI and it wasn't what the Fed or Wall Street stock pushers had in mind.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in January, after rising 0.4 percent in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.

Inflation is re-emerging, without a doubt. The CPI releas send everything down: stock futures, oil, gold, silver, crypto, you name it.

Get ready for some serious recalculation of your retirement plans.

Buy Gold. Buy Silver. Do. It. Now.

At the Close, Tuesday, February 11, 2025:
Dow: 44,593.65, +123.24 (+0.28%)
NASDAQ: 19,643.86, -70.41 (-0.36%)
S&P 500: 6,068.50, +2.06 (+0.03%)
NYSE Composite: 20,168.21, +50.33 (+0.25%)

Stocks Churn; McDonald's Gains on Earnings Miss; Coca-Cola a Bright Spot; Gold Makes Another Record as Supply Comes to U.S.

Following Friday's slide, traders took little time to buy the perceived dip, boosting stocks right out of the gate and making highs for the day early in the session. For the most part, the major indices wandered in a tight range. The S&P 500 moved in a rnage of just 27 points, top to bottom, for the entire session.

Markets are somewhat directionless, mystified by the spell of the Trump agenda, which they haven't quite figured out, while also awaiting January CPI on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday. In the interim, companies are still reporting full year 2024 and fourth quarter earnings, among them, McDonald's (MCD), which reported prior to Monday's open.

McDonald's had a good showing, up nearly 5.00% after it missed expectations top and bottom. Revenue for the fourth quarter fell 0.28% from a year ago to $6.39 billion, missing expectations for $6.45 billion. Adjusted earnings per share of $2.80 were below Wall Street's estimate of $2.84. The company attributed the quarterly decline to an E. coli outbreak that sent U.S. same store sales tumbling 1.4% from the same period a year ago.

These are the kind of desperate excuses and investment decisions that lead ultimately to bad outcomes. Revenue for all of 2024 was $25.92 billion versus $25.99 billion for 2023. Adjusted earnings per share were $11.39 in 2024 versus $11.74 in 2023. The stock has more than doubled over the past five years and hit a record high of 316 in October, 2024. It carries a dividend yield of just 2.30%, less than inflation, and a P/E of 27.

With immigration and freebies to illegals being cut off, Americans barely able to afford McDonald's offerings of food substitutes, a recession looming, and Mickey D's margins cratering, stock pickers should be shorting this stock rather than sending it higher on what were, effectively, lousy results, E. coli or no E. coli.

One commenter put it thusly: "Food at McDonalds tastes like a punishment for being poor."

Prior to Tuesday's open, Humana (HUM), British Petroleum (BP), Coca-Cola (KO), AutoNation (AN), Shopify (SHOP), and Marriott (MAR) all reported.

Briefly, serial under-performer Humana (HUM) posted a loss of $693 million, or -$5.76 a share, compared to a loss of $541 million, or -$4.42 a share a year ago. Stripping out one-time items, losses per share came in at -$2.16. Analysts expected an adjusted loss of -$2.21 a share. Humana was down 2.74% on Monday. In pre-market trading, it's up 3.20%. The stock hit a high of 554 in October, 2022 and has slid to 266 as of yesterday. This is not an investment; it's a trade.

British Petroeum (BP) reported its worst quarter in four years, missing expectations of 0.08 per share with a reported 0.07. The company cited weak refining margins, turnarounds at plants that lowered output and raised costs, as well as corporate charges for the decline in profit in the last three months of last year. OK, sure. Pass.

Coca-Cola (KO) was one of the bright spots, reporting earnings per share of 55 cents against 52 cents expected and 46 cents a year ago. Revenue for the quarter was $11.54 billion vs. $10.68 billion estimated.

AutoNation (AN) posted an earnings beat for the quarter, but net income was USD 186.1 million compared to USD 216.2 million a year ago. Diluted earnings per share from continuing operations was USD 4.64 compared to USD 5.04 a year ago. Diluted earnings per share was USD 4.64 compared to USD 5.04 a year ago.

For the full year, revenue was USD 26,765.4 million compared to USD 26,948.9 million a year ago. Net income was USD 692.2 million compared to USD 1,021.1 million a year ago. Shares are marginally higher priro to the opening bell.

Shopify (SHOP) Q4 revenue surged 31.3%, but shares are bouncing around, down as much as seven percent pre-market. The company had adjusted earnings of 44 cents a share, topping estimates for 43 cents. In the year-ago quarter, earnings per share were 36 cents. Shares are close to all-time highs and the P/E ratio is over 100. Can Shopify succeed where others, like WIX or AMZN have? Looks a little pricey, but they are into AI and are making profits.

Marriott (MAR) posted full year revenue of $6.43 billion vs analyst estimates of $6.39 billion (5.5% year-on-year growth). Adjusted 4th quarter EPS was $2.45 vs. analyst estimates of $2.38. Share are lower due to middling guidance. Stock price is around 300 with a P/E over 30 and dividend yield of less than one percent. Hope they're doing share buybacks.

That's the equity roundup that's sent stock futures tumbling Tuesday morning. Dow futures: -$88; NASDAQ: -$96; S&P: -16.

Gold hit another all-time high early this A.M. at $2,968.50 on the COMEX. It's being beaten down, currently around $2,920 per ounce. Silver remains in the bargain basement, down this morning at $31.92. Supply has been flowing to the United States since Trump's election in November. Most don't know what to make of this recent phenomenon, but some are suggesting that ramping up gold purchases could be a sign that Trump ultimately intends to finish off the era of fiat money by eliminating the Federal Reserve. That would be a feather in Trump's All-American hat, but it's really too early to tell just what he's up to concerning the U.S. debt and the Fed.

Tuesday may be a little on the dull side with CPI for February topping the ticket Wednesday morning. After the bell Tuesday Doordash (DASH), Zillow Group (ZG), Lyft (LYFT), Gilead (GILD), Supermircro (SMCI) report.

Wednesday, before the bell, KraftHeinz (KHC), Ryder (R), Barrick Gold (GOLD), Generac (GNRC), and CVS Health (CVS) report.

At the Close, Monday, February 10, 2025:
Dow: 44,470.41, +167.01 (+0.38%)
NASDAQ: 19,714.27, +190.87 (+0.98%)
S&P 500: 6,066.44, +40.45 (+0.67%)
NYSE Composite: 20,117.88, +78.39 (+0.39%)